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2021 Buffalo Bills - Same as it ever was*** (3 Viewers)

Gottabesweet said:
The video's of him practicing yesterday showed him catching the ball with no limitation.  I'm not sure if he'll be on a snap count Sunday.  He hasn't gotten crazy targets when healthy but they might have no choice without Clay.  Tough decision for sure.
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I was looking for the videos.  Can you provide a link?  I wanted to see how he was practicing since he was cleared.

 
steelwind said:
I was looking for the videos.  Can you provide a link?  I wanted to see how he was practicing since he was cleared.
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It was on twitter, a few videos. find @buffalobills and he's in a few of the clips catching over the middle drags and slants and then a few deep balls.

 
Gottabesweet said:
It was on twitter, a few videos. find @buffalobills and he's in a few of the clips catching over the middle drags and slants and then a few deep balls.
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Appreciate it.  Do they view Matthews as Sammy lite?  In week 4 before injury Tyrod took two red zone shots at him.  He almost scored a 2nd TD.

 
Gottabesweet said:
And why is that. 25-30% of Tyrod's passing yards is what I'm guessing if anything 3-35.  He was 5-54 vs. the Bengals, and then when Clay was in the lineup he had a 22 yard catch and 31 yard catch in separate games. 

I mean if you want to argue just to argue go for it.

Dodds 3-29

Bloom 4-33

Tremblay 3-36

But continue to disagree on 4 to 11 yards.
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I'm guessing he took issue with you calling that his ceiling.

 
steelwind said:
Appreciate it.  Do they view Matthews as Sammy lite?  In week 4 before injury Tyrod took two red zone shots at him.  He almost scored a 2nd TD.
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Completely different players. Matthews is more of a west coast guy move the chains, get behind the LB's and before the S's.  With heavy bye weeks coming 8,9,10 I think he's nothing more than what Bloom would call as a "What the heck flex" based on matchup.  He'll give you some good games TD dependent and lay some stinkers fantasy wise. 

 
humpback said:
I'm guessing he took issue with you calling that his ceiling.
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He only decided to quote the 3-40 part.  I'm sorry a TD would be his "ceiling" 3-40-1 

FBG's puts a TD at about 20% So I was helping the guy that was asking about O'Leary. Should be better options out there.

Bloom TE18

Dodds TE23

Tremblay TE23

As I suspected, surely there is someone else out there assuming half the teams in your league even carry a backup.

 
Gottabesweet said:
And why is that. 25-30% of Tyrod's passing yards is what I'm guessing if anything 3-35.  He was 5-54 vs. the Bengals, and then when Clay was in the lineup he had a 22 yard catch and 31 yard catch in separate games. 

I mean if you want to argue just to argue go for it.

Dodds 3-29

Bloom 4-33

Tremblay 3-36

But continue to disagree on 4 to 11 yards.
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25-30% of Tyrod's passing yards is 35 yards? So you're saying he's barely going to top 100 yards passing on the day? 

O'Leary was 5-54 in the Bengals game, after Clay left the game with a 2-31 day. 8-88 to the TE position on the day.

Week 4 the TE position was 5-112, Week 3 it was 7-70-1

TB has one of the worst passing defenses in the league. Tyrod literally has nobody else to throw it to outside of McCoy. Matthews may not even play, and if he does he may be limited with the hand injury. Zay Jones has been limited to 1 catch per game so far. I don't have any confidence in Kaelin Clay or Brandon Tate to shoulder the load. Rick Dennison offense utilizes the TE position a lot, and Tyrod isn't going to take a lot of chances, so the TE position is going to get plenty of opportunities. 

I'm am strongly disagreeing, but not on 4 to 11 yards. I believe he is more in line with a 6-75-0.5 type of day.

Edit: We will see how it shakes out Sunday.

 
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Gottabesweet said:
He only decided to quote the 3-40 part.  I'm sorry a TD would be his "ceiling" 3-40-1 

FBG's puts a TD at about 20% So I was helping the guy that was asking about O'Leary. Should be better options out there.

Bloom TE18

Dodds TE23

Tremblay TE23

As I suspected, surely there is someone else out there assuming half the teams in your league even carry a backup.
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He can speak for himself, but it seems silly to call 3-40 his ceiling when he easily surpassed that last week, and that was with Clay playing part of the game. You listing projections for him is very different from his ceiling fwiw. 

I'll bow out though because I'm not saying he's some great option or anything, just trying to clarify.

 
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Tommy Collins said:
25-30% of Tyrod's passing yards is 35 yards? So you're saying he's barely going to top 100 yards passing on the day? 

O'Leary was 5-54 in the Bengals game, after Clay left the game with a 2-31 day. 8-88 to the TE position on the day.

Week 4 the TE position was 5-112, Week 3 it was 7-70-1

TB has one of the worst passing defenses in the league. Tyrod literally has nobody else to throw it to outside of McCoy. Matthews may not even play, and if he does he may be limited with the hand injury. Zay Jones has been limited to 1 catch per game so far. I don't have any confidence in Kaelin Clay or Brandon Tate to shoulder the load. Rick Dennison offense utilizes the TE position a lot, and Tyrod isn't going to take a lot of chances, so the TE position is going to get plenty of opportunities. 

I'm am strongly disagreeing, but not on 4 to 11 yards. I believe he is more in line with a 6-75-0.5 type of day.

Edit: We will see how it shakes out Sunday.
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And I'll side with FBG's who are a lot closer to my predictions than a 6-75-0.5 day.   I think this is a BIG McCoy game out of the bye, regardless with how poor their pass D is they have given up some big run days post week 1.    160 yards last week an a 4.6 YPC to Peterson and co.   The Pats only ran 23 times vs. them for 113 yards 4.9YPC. I think we run more than 23 times.

 Clay has 28 targets in 4.5 games and 20 catches in those games.  Matthews is trending towards playing with no limitations from what I'm reading and seeing.

Was trying to help the poster decide that there are probably better plays than O'Leary available to start.   Hooper, Cook, Bennett, Doyle, Miller, are all outside the Top12 this week and most should be available baring EVERY team keeping 2 TE's? 

Edit to add:  Cook 6-107-0 - 16.7 PPR points.

 
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humpback said:
He can speak for himself, but it seems silly to call 3-40 his ceiling when he easily surpassed that last week, and that was with Clay playing part of the game. You listing projections for him is very different from his ceiling fwiw. 

I'll bow out though because I'm not saying he's some great option or anything, just trying to clarify.
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Yes you're right, it may not be his ceiling, last week's probably was.  It was a heavy- TE game plan as Clay was doing well.  O'Leary benefitted from the injury,  but I'm still going with a 3-40 or 3-35, 4-40 type day.  Was just replying back to the poster outlining he HAS to have better option available as this should be a big McCoy game.

 
Gottabesweet said:
And I'll side with FBG's who are a lot closer to my predictions than a 6-75-0.5 day.   I think this is a BIG McCoy game out of the bye, regardless with how poor their pass D is they have given up some big run days post week 1.    160 yards last week an a 4.6 YPC to Peterson and co.   The Pats only ran 23 times vs. them for 113 yards 4.9YPC. I think we run more than 23 times.

 Clay has 28 targets in 4.5 games and 20 catches in those games.  Matthews is trending towards playing with no limitations from what I'm reading and seeing.

Was trying to help the poster decide that there are probably better plays than O'Leary available to start.   Hooper, Cook, Bennett, Doyle, Miller, are all outside the Top12 this week and most should be available baring EVERY team keeping 2 TE's? 
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Just difference of opinion then. I like O'Leary ahead of all those guys.

And the Bills offense is built on the run game, but since they changed to a zone blocking scheme, this OL (the same for the prior 2 years in which they were one of the best running teams in the NFL) has struggled. It looks like Ducasse at RG and Jordan Mills at RT again this week. McDermott didn't sound too optimistic that Cordy Glenn would be starting at LT this week either, which would mean Dion Dawkins there. 

I would imagine this is a low scoring game, which would favor RBs. With Fitzpatrick or an injured Winston at QB, they're better served with leaning on the run game. Their defense can't save them if they get into any kind of shootout (which this game should not be). So it would make sense for them to ride Doug Martin as long as they can. That type of game script would favor McCoy. But nonetheless, the Bills do have to throw the ball, and I see O'Leary as being one of the most heavily targeted players on the Bills, along with McCoy.

On a side note about the team in general, I'm really disappointed with the OC choice by McDermott. He's done a lot of things right, but Rick Dennison wasn't one of them. They took one of the top rated rushing attacks and made them mediocre with the same exact OL we had for the prior 2 years. I'm a firm believer of the "if it's not broken, don't fix it" philosophy. I'm sure that Beane/McDermott have plans in 2018 on how they're going to shake up the OL, but aside from gutting the whole damn thing, what small changes can they make to fix it? I don't see it. I would welcome a Cordy Glenn trade if we got good value in return. All last year I was hoping they would keep Kuoandjio at LT and trade Glenn to upgrade the team elsewhere as the dropoff from Glenn to CK wasn't huge. Unfortunately he's not even on the roster anymore.

2018 and beyond we have our work cut out for us. I don't have a good feeling that we're going to keep EJ Gaines. If so, why aren't we discussing a deal with him now? Poyer, Hyde, White are are great combination back there, but keeping Gaines would give us a very good secondary to build around. Humber has been doing well and Preston Brown isn't have a great statistical season but he's done well. Lorenzo Alexander and Kyle Williams aren't going to be with the team for much longer due to their age (I expect Kyle to retire after this season). Dareus is as good as gone IMO. We clearly need a whole new WR core, and in my opinion Tyrod is NOT the answer at QB. So to sum that up: QB, WR, WR, RG & RT (at minimum, regardless of scheme change or not), DT, DT, OLB, and potentially CB. We have a lot of draft picks next year, but that's a hell of a lot of positions to be addressing in one off-season.

 
Tommy Collins said:
Just difference of opinion then. I like O'Leary ahead of all those guys.

And the Bills offense is built on the run game, but since they changed to a zone blocking scheme, this OL (the same for the prior 2 years in which they were one of the best running teams in the NFL) has struggled. It looks like Ducasse at RG and Jordan Mills at RT again this week. McDermott didn't sound too optimistic that Cordy Glenn would be starting at LT this week either, which would mean Dion Dawkins there. 

I would imagine this is a low scoring game, which would favor RBs. With Fitzpatrick or an injured Winston at QB, they're better served with leaning on the run game. Their defense can't save them if they get into any kind of shootout (which this game should not be). So it would make sense for them to ride Doug Martin as long as they can. That type of game script would favor McCoy. But nonetheless, the Bills do have to throw the ball, and I see O'Leary as being one of the most heavily targeted players on the Bills, along with McCoy.

On a side note about the team in general, I'm really disappointed with the OC choice by McDermott. He's done a lot of things right, but Rick Dennison wasn't one of them. They took one of the top rated rushing attacks and made them mediocre with the same exact OL we had for the prior 2 years. I'm a firm believer of the "if it's not broken, don't fix it" philosophy. I'm sure that Beane/McDermott have plans in 2018 on how they're going to shake up the OL, but aside from gutting the whole damn thing, what small changes can they make to fix it? I don't see it. I would welcome a Cordy Glenn trade if we got good value in return. All last year I was hoping they would keep Kuoandjio at LT and trade Glenn to upgrade the team elsewhere as the dropoff from Glenn to CK wasn't huge. Unfortunately he's not even on the roster anymore.

2018 and beyond we have our work cut out for us. I don't have a good feeling that we're going to keep EJ Gaines. If so, why aren't we discussing a deal with him now? Poyer, Hyde, White are are great combination back there, but keeping Gaines would give us a very good secondary to build around. Humber has been doing well and Preston Brown isn't have a great statistical season but he's done well. Lorenzo Alexander and Kyle Williams aren't going to be with the team for much longer due to their age (I expect Kyle to retire after this season). Dareus is as good as gone IMO. We clearly need a whole new WR core, and in my opinion Tyrod is NOT the answer at QB. So to sum that up: QB, WR, WR, RG & RT (at minimum, regardless of scheme change or not), DT, DT, OLB, and potentially CB. We have a lot of draft picks next year, but that's a hell of a lot of positions to be addressing in one off-season.
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Dennison was a last resort type thing it seems like after they struck out with everyone else. 

Sal on WGR also thinks our O-line will start to incorporate more running plays that worked from last year.  History shows teams will do that at the bye, not scrapping the current playbook but adding things from the previous regime that worked with the players they have which is why I think McCoy has a big game.  I think they'll be fresh and rolling running the ball.  

Nobody is going to take on Cordy Glenn's salary AND give up a 2nd round pick which is what I'd want in the least let alone a 2nd and player. The dead cap on trading Cordy is huge, when you already have a problem with Dareus.  Two big contracts, one guy that's not getting snaps and one guy who is always injured. Sal also hinted at Glenn just not "sucking it up" and playing which McDermott loves. 

I agree with the Gaines point, but he's banged up and they likely wouldn't be focused on making sure he's signed long term. 

You're right on Kyle Williams, likely gone next year as his wife lives a few houses down from my parents and has said multiple times at some block parties that "this is probably our last block party etc and she doesn't think they'll offer him anything next year so he may retire or sign a 1 year deal with a contender as a last shot to give Buffalo fans someone to cheer for type thing.

I agree, we have some holes to fill but the secondary in which many thought would be trash is taking form.  Moving up for a QB would be my least favorite thing.  Use the picks and hopefully one they love falls.

I guess I'm hoping that Glenn returns to form and Dawkins can play RT for us taking away two needs.  McDermott did mention Groy could get a look in the future at RG but prefers him at C.  I'd have to bet McDermott will get his stud LB this draft.

 
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Gottabesweet said:
Dennison was a last resort type thing it seems like after they struck out with everyone else. 

Sal on WGR also thinks our O-line will start to incorporate more running plays that worked from last year.  History shows teams will do that at the bye, not scrapping the current playbook but adding things from the previous regime that worked with the players they have which is why I think McCoy has a big game.  I think they'll be fresh and rolling running the ball.  

Nobody is going to take on Cordy Glenn's salary AND give up a 2nd round pick which is what I'd want in the least let alone a 2nd and player. The dead cap on trading Cordy is huge, when you already have a problem with Dareus.  Two big contracts, one guy that's not getting snaps and one guy who is always injured. Sal also hinted at Glenn just not "sucking it up" and playing which McDermott loves. 

I agree with the Gaines point, but he's banged up and they likely wouldn't be focused on making sure he's signed long term. 

You're right on Kyle Williams, likely gone next year as his wife lives a few houses down from my parents and has said multiple times at some block parties that "this is probably our last block party etc and she doesn't think they'll offer him anything next year so he may retire or sign a 1 year deal with a contender as a last shot to give Buffalo fans someone to cheer for type thing.

I agree, we have some holes to fill but the secondary in which many thought would be trash is taking form.  Moving up for a QB would be my least favorite thing.  Use the picks and hopefully one they love falls.
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Especially if it's Darnold. Blake Bortles 2.0 

 
Gottabesweet said:
I agree, we have some holes to fill but the secondary in which many thought would be trash is taking form.  Moving up for a QB would be my least favorite thing.  Use the picks and hopefully one they love falls.
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Totally disagree. FIND A FRANCHISE QB. Then, worry about filling other holes.

 
irishidiot said:
I like T. Taylor.  be fun to see if he has it if>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>they had a WR.  just one WR.
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Jordan Matthews is a very good WR, underrated I would say. Jones could be good, we just don't know yet. They just aren't running an offense that passes the ball. I like Taylor too for the most part but if they are going to start him, I'd like to see them make more use of his running ability. Seems like they've installed an offense that doesn't really suit him, and WRs that don't fit with what he's best at.

 
Grigs Allmoon said:
Totally disagree. FIND A FRANCHISE QB. Then, worry about filling other holes.
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Well it's looking like this crop of QB's that was supposed to be awesome, isn't as awesome as everyone thought.  We'll likely be picking 11-17 range and can just pick one there or with KC's pick.  As long as they get a QB with one of their firsts or second's I'm good with it. 

 
Gottabesweet said:
Well it's looking like this crop of QB's that was supposed to be awesome, isn't as awesome as everyone thought.  We'll likely be picking 11-17 range and can just pick one there or with KC's pick.  As long as they get a QB with one of their firsts or second's I'm good with it. 
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Yeah, kind of makes you think that passing up on the 2017 class may have been a mistake, huh?

I love Tre White, but would trade him in an instant for Watson and probably Mahomes.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Yeah, kind of makes you think that passing up on the 2017 class may have been a mistake, huh?

I love Tre White, but would trade him in an instant for Watson and probably Mahomes.
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I would trade him for Watson as well. But he was the only QB I liked. I thought Kizer was over-rated. I didn't see enough of Trubisky to warrant him being top 2, and Mahomes gun slinging mentality is great in college, but it's a whole new world in the NFL. He is going to take quite a bit of time to develop (and he's in the perfect situation where he is). We need to take a QB in 2018 early on. And I hope it's not Darnold.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Yeah, kind of makes you think that passing up on the 2017 class may have been a mistake, huh?

I love Tre White, but would trade him in an instant for Watson and probably Mahomes.
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Always hindsight with the Bills.  Just start taking one in the first three rounds EVERY year.  Raiders have a good one!

 
Tommy Collins said:
I would trade him for Watson as well. But he was the only QB I liked. I thought Kizer was over-rated. I didn't see enough of Trubisky to warrant him being top 2, and Mahomes gun slinging mentality is great in college, but it's a whole new world in the NFL. He is going to take quite a bit of time to develop (and he's in the perfect situation where he is). We need to take a QB in 2018 early on. And I hope it's not Darnold.
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I don't like Darnold either.  He was fun to watch last Bowl season but outside that I'm not seeing it.

I think early on the Bills like Rudolph and Allen.

Plenty of guys to sort themselves out and it's awhile away. I wouldn't be surprised if 8 go in the Top 75 picks.

 
Gottabesweet said:
I don't like Darnold either.  He was fun to watch last Bowl season but outside that I'm not seeing it.

I think early on the Bills like Rudolph and Allen.

Plenty of guys to sort themselves out and it's awhile away. I wouldn't be surprised if 8 go in the Top 75 picks.
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I like what I saw from Jacoby Brissett. He reminds me of Byron Leftwich with his physique, but doesn't play like him. I think he's done a great job after being traded to Indy so recently. I'm sure they will want to hang onto him because of Luck's injury and concerns about what will happen in the future with Luck's shoulder. But this would be an avenue that would be worth considering. At least we know what we would have in him, as the draft is really a crapshoot (Paxton Lynch, Deshone Kizer are 2 first round QBs from the past 2 drafts that have disappointed already).

Will it happen? No. But I think the team would be wise to ask about him this off-season.

 
You knew at some point the defense would break and the offense would have to win a game, and they did so today.  I'll try not to be too negative, because I think the Bucs are an above-average team (like the Bills appear to be) and it was a nice win.....but when you force the turnovers like the Bills did, you have to put points on the board.  I like the fact that they're not caving in late-game situations like the Bills of old, but man it would be nice to see them convert what the defense is giving them.  They still lost the TOP by a solid 7 minutes today despite winning the turnover margin 3-1.

I thought Tre White was pretty good today.  The Bucs threw away from him all day, then connected on that really nice TD to Evans, and then went right back at him and he forced a fumble immediately.  I shudder to think about Derek Carr throwing at Shareece Wright all day, because you know that's what's gonna happen.

 
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What I love is that it was an ugly game and they won. The Bills have not won ugly games very much. Those have almost always been guy punch games. It feels like McDermott has these guys grinding, playing together and doing what it takes to win close games.

What sucks though, is Jordan Poyer sprained his MCL on that last play of the game.

 
This team isn't doing stupid stuff to beat themselves.  Yes, the lack of a FG attempt at the end of the first half was an abomination.  But we are getting turnovers, not giving turnovers, and avoiding dumb penalties.  Basically, we're about a .500 team thanks to this change in non-idiocy.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
This team isn't doing stupid stuff to beat themselves.  Yes, the lack of a FG attempt at the end of the first half was an abomination.  But we are getting turnovers, not giving turnovers, and avoiding dumb penalties.  Basically, we're about a .500 team thanks to this change in non-idiocy.
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"ditching of Rex Ryan"

 
Do all agree that Zay Jones should probably just be benched this point? He's gotta be in the neighborhood of 10 drops already this season.

We've gone past the time it makes sense to give him a chance to get things worked out and are entering a point where McDermott should start taking blame for even having him out there.

Given Thompson's history, yesterday is likely not going to happen again, but I'd rather give him more opportunity than Butter Fingers Jones.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Do all agree that Zay Jones should probably just be benched this point? He's gotta be in the neighborhood of 10 drops already this season.

We've gone past the time it makes sense to give him a chance to get things worked out and are entering a point where McDermott should start taking blame for even having him out there.

Given Thompson's history, yesterday is likely not going to happen again, but I'd rather give him more opportunity than Butter Fingers Jones.
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I think he has 5 or 6 recorded drops.  He'll probably move to the slot where he should have been all along. He had a big catch on the drive to tie the game.   Thompson fits outside and will be given more snaps there for sure.  Matthews probably plays outside with Zay in the slot.

 
O'Leary finished with only 2-58 but the bigger story was Logan Thomas, He got 43% of the TE snaps yesterday and is quickly trending upward because his size. 

 
GroveDiesel said:
What I love is that it was an ugly game and they won. The Bills have not won ugly games very much. Those have almost always been guy punch games. It feels like McDermott has these guys grinding, playing together and doing what it takes to win close games.

What sucks though, is Jordan Poyer sprained his MCL on that last play of the game.
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Where did you read it was a sprained MCL?

His fiancé said he was fine, I take that with a grain of salt, but she also snap-chatted him on the field jumping with his daughter after the game and then the after party at 716 Bar and Grill in the evening.

 
Re: Zay Jones, I think the team needs to figure out how best to help him.  Maybe some time on the bench would help.  Maybe he just needs to play through it.  Either way, I don't think they're missing much if he's not on the field and I don't think there's anyone on the bench that needs to be in over him, but you don't want to break him at this point in his career.  Everyone's different...it's on the coaches to figure out how to get him to perform, because it's clear that he's capable of performing.  That's literally the coach's job.

 
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I just noticed that the AFC East has more wins than any other division right now. I'm pretty sure exactly zero people would have guessed that going into week 1.

 
Grigs Allmoon said:
I just noticed that the AFC East has more wins than any other division right now. I'm pretty sure exactly zero people would have guessed that going into week 1.
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There was a thread around here that said Bills, Jets, Dolphins combined wins or Patriots and most people were taking the Pats.

It's early but it's looking like the AFCE will get one of the two Wild Cards, even though both are showing it as of now.

We'll have a winning record in November.  Not optimistic about this week at all but the stadium should be loud!  That fumble recovery was the loudest I can remember in a long time.

 
Gottabesweet said:
It's early but it's looking like the AFCE will get one of the two Wild Cards, even though both are showing it as of now.
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I'm not so sure about that. I think the Bills, Dolphins and Jets are really overachieving so far. I'd still guess that they'll finish as 6-8 win teams, but I suppose we shall see...

 
Grigs Allmoon said:
I'm not so sure about that. I think the Bills, Dolphins and Jets are really overachieving so far. I'd still guess that they'll finish as 6-8 win teams, but I suppose we shall see...
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Yeah  I guess you're right,    It's looking like Oakland, Chargers, Cinci, Jacksonville, Miami, Buffalo, Denver  all still jumbled up for 2 spots..

 
EJ Gaines out this week. Poyer still day-to-day. With Cooper coming off of last week's huge game, this is looking very bad for the Bills. Seems likely they'll take an L this week.

 
GroveDiesel said:
EJ Gaines out this week. Poyer still day-to-day. With Cooper coming off of last week's huge game, this is looking very bad for the Bills. Seems likely they'll take an L this week.
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Divisional game on Thursday, short-turn around looks like Poyer may miss as well. Still considered DTD.  Jared Cook is another matchup problem for our LB's.

I wonder if they have White shadow Crabtree or Cooper like he did with AJ Green after the injuries occurred in that game.

 
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