2021 Buffalo Bills - Same as it ever was*** (2 Viewers)

[Tommy Collins]

Come on, he absolutely has a weak arm. That game sealing INT was 100% because the throw wasn't strong enough and it took too long to get there. It was one of the biggest knocks on him and he has shown no ability at all to get the ball to WRs running routes to the sidelines. 

I know it's a small sample size and he is a rookie, but the dude threw 6 INTs on just 53 pass attempts (that's more than Tyrod had all year on 405 less attempts). He completed less than 50% of his passes. His yards per attempt was a pathetic 5.1. His yards per completion was lower than Tyrod's too.

I had some hope that he would be better than he is, but he just isn't. He is a 5th round QB with fatal flaws. Even with ideal development, he probably tops out as a mediocre backup.

It is a small sample size. And the majority of those reps came against SD, which has a very good defense. Obviously Jax is good too. The only other reps he got were garbage time snaps in the blowout.

 

[Tommy Collins]

The way this administration has been building the team, I see another EJ Manuel situation taking place. That is, a reach/head-scratcher QB taken that Beane/McDermott happen to fall in love with.

I'm not totally understanding this comment. The team definitely made some head scratching moves this off-season, but they worked. We made the post-season and our defense with the rag tag group that we had was pretty solid. Trading down for Tre White was a hell of a call. Dion Dawkins looked pretty good at LT for a rookie, Matt Milano looked impressive at times and Zay Jones has the talent to be a decent slot WR. I know Zay gets a lot of knocks on him for his drops, but if I remember correctly he was top 5 for inaccurate passes according to PFF. 

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

I'm not totally understanding this comment. The team definitely made some head scratching moves this off-season, but they worked. We made the post-season and our defense with the rag tag group that we had was pretty solid. Trading down for Tre White was a hell of a call. Dion Dawkins looked pretty good at LT for a rookie, Matt Milano looked impressive at times and Zay Jones has the talent to be a decent slot WR. I know Zay gets a lot of knocks on him for his drops, but if I remember correctly he was top 5 for inaccurate passes according to PFF. 

I'm not saying they are going to draft another flop, like Manuel. I'm just saying that they have gone against the grain so often, that it could very likely happen again when they do draft a QB. For example, taking the 3rd-5th best QB on the experts' rankings.

 

[Tommy Collins]

I'm not saying they are going to draft another flop, like Manuel. I'm just saying that they have gone against the grain so often, that it could very likely happen again when they do draft a QB. For example, taking the 3rd-5th best QB on the experts' rankings.

Perhaps, but this is a different regime and they seem to have their ducks in a row. Beane made comments today that his biggest responsibility is to find their franchise QB, indicating that TT is not it (which is great news for us). So it sounds like their first priority is figuring out the QB position, which is obvious but hasn't always been addressed appropriately in years past. 

Also, McDermott, when asked about Kyle Williams said that he would "love" to have him back. When asked about Dennison he said that it was "too early" in the process to make those decisions. Seems strange to commit to one but not the other, unless he's tip-toeing for a purpose.

 

[Statorama]

Cousins would be a great fit for this team, so it'll never happen.

I mean, good grief I can't imagine the numbers he would have put up if he had an actual NFL All Pro RB lined up behind him.

 

[Tommy Collins]

Cousins would be a great fit for this team, so it'll never happen.

I mean, good grief I can't imagine the numbers he would have put up if he had an actual NFL All Pro RB lined up behind him.

Cousins doesn't get the respect he deserves. People thought Gruden was crazy for rolling with him over RGIII but it was the right decision. His numbers are down this year but he lost his #1 and #2 WRs (DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon) and replaced them with Terrelle Pryor who did not do well at all and Josh Doctson who was inconsistent and injured this year. His only other top receiving option from last year was Jordan Reed who spent most of the season on IR and made very little contributions. There was no running game. His only weapon this year was Chris Thompson, who was eventually on IR for the year. 

I just don't understand what people expected from him this year. His team did him no service by letting his top two WRs walk in free agency. It's not like Buffalo has better weapons in the passing game at this point, but if you're going to expect excellent numbers and production, there needs to be talent surrounding the QB for that to happen. There are only so many Peyton, Brady and Rodgers type QBs to make plays despite their surrounding cast. 

The reason I want Cousins is because the draft is a crapshoot AND it takes time to develop a rookie QB. If we signed Cousins in FA (for whatever it cost), we'd have a 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5 to address WR, RB, RG, RT, DT, DE, LB. We're much more likely to get there through that approach than to spend multiple picks to draft a QB. I suppose if we landed low key guys like Poyer who had great seasons for us in free agency that would work out. 

I think one of the other reasons I don't want a rookie is because we don't have the supporting talent at this time to help him. We would need to be absolutely positive the right side of our OL is fixed and we'd have to get him some weapons in the passing game. A veteran QB could make due with lesser talent there. 

 

[Statorama]

Cousins doesn't get the respect he deserves. People thought Gruden was crazy for rolling with him over RGIII but it was the right decision. His numbers are down this year but he lost his #1 and #2 WRs (DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon) and replaced them with Terrelle Pryor who did not do well at all and Josh Doctson who was inconsistent and injured this year. His only other top receiving option from last year was Jordan Reed who spent most of the season on IR and made very little contributions. There was no running game. His only weapon this year was Chris Thompson, who was eventually on IR for the year. 

I just don't understand what people expected from him this year. His team did him no service by letting his top two WRs walk in free agency. It's not like Buffalo has better weapons in the passing game at this point, but if you're going to expect excellent numbers and production, there needs to be talent surrounding the QB for that to happen. There are only so many Peyton, Brady and Rodgers type QBs to make plays despite their surrounding cast. 

The reason I want Cousins is because the draft is a crapshoot AND it takes time to develop a rookie QB. If we signed Cousins in FA (for whatever it cost), we'd have a 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5 to address WR, RB, RG, RT, DT, DE, LB. We're much more likely to get there through that approach than to spend multiple picks to draft a QB. I suppose if we landed low key guys like Poyer who had great seasons for us in free agency that would work out. 

I think one of the other reasons I don't want a rookie is because we don't have the supporting talent at this time to help him. We would need to be absolutely positive the right side of our OL is fixed and we'd have to get him some weapons in the passing game. A veteran QB could make due with lesser talent there. 

There are a lot of pieces in place.  Clay at TE, Shady, Jones in the slot....a solid veteran QB can work with those hold cards. Mix in those draft picks and with a little luck you're staring at a 12 win type team with Cousins.

 

[ScottNorwood]

One or more will fall into the 20'ies. One always does (and it looks like just about everyone are declaring). Question is - will he be the next Dak/Rodgers/Watson or the next Manziel/Weeden?

Yeah - making that pick in the 20s is much more palatable than trading up to a top 5 pick.  If they trade up they're probably giving up something ridiculous like both 1st rounders and a 1st rounder next year.

 

[humpback]

Cousins doesn't get the respect he deserves. People thought Gruden was crazy for rolling with him over RGIII but it was the right decision. His numbers are down this year but he lost his #1 and #2 WRs (DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon) and replaced them with Terrelle Pryor who did not do well at all and Josh Doctson who was inconsistent and injured this year. His only other top receiving option from last year was Jordan Reed who spent most of the season on IR and made very little contributions. There was no running game. His only weapon this year was Chris Thompson, who was eventually on IR for the year. 

I just don't understand what people expected from him this year. His team did him no service by letting his top two WRs walk in free agency. It's not like Buffalo has better weapons in the passing game at this point, but if you're going to expect excellent numbers and production, there needs to be talent surrounding the QB for that to happen. There are only so many Peyton, Brady and Rodgers type QBs to make plays despite their surrounding cast. 

The reason I want Cousins is because the draft is a crapshoot AND it takes time to develop a rookie QB. If we signed Cousins in FA (for whatever it cost), we'd have a 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5 to address WR, RB, RG, RT, DT, DE, LB. We're much more likely to get there through that approach than to spend multiple picks to draft a QB. I suppose if we landed low key guys like Poyer who had great seasons for us in free agency that would work out. 

I think one of the other reasons I don't want a rookie is because we don't have the supporting talent at this time to help him. We would need to be absolutely positive the right side of our OL is fixed and we'd have to get him some weapons in the passing game. A veteran QB could make due with lesser talent there. 

Neither does Alex Smith. 

 

[Tommy Collins]

Neither does Alex Smith. 

It's a pretty difficult comparison to make. Alex Smith was a former 1st overall QB. Generally those are guys that are expected to be QBs of the future and to become elite QBs, neither of which was Alex Smith. His knocks are the same ones that people (myself included) get frustrated with Tyrod for. He won't make the tight throws and isn't aggressive enough. I believe that Tyrod has regressed each year he's been the starter for us. In 2015 he was much more willing to throw it deep, last year he got too careful with it and this year he was still checking it down like Trent Edwards but lost all pocket awareness and took numerous awful sacks. That isn't the same story for Alex, but he is who he is. If you're expecting Alex to be an elite QB you're going to be disappointed. 

Kirk Cousins was a former 4th round QB. The expectations for him coming out of college was that he would be the career backup to RGIII. His first full season as a starter he threw for over 4100 yards, 29 TDs, 11 INTs and ran for 5 more TDs. Year 13 of Alex's career was the first time he broke 4,000 yards (previous career high of 3502). He threw 26 TDs (previous high of 23, last season only had 15) and had 1 rushing TD. They're very different QBs, so comparing one to the other is difficult. Both are at different stages of their career as Cousins could still be reaching his ceiling while what we saw from Alex is most likely the best we will ever see.

I would compare Kirk to a better Derek Carr. Carr signed a 5 year, $125 million deal, so he would be averaging $25m. Matthew Stafford also has similar numbers and he signed a 5 year, $135m deal, averaging $27m. Both of these guys stayed on their teams and would have likely made more on the open market. That is why the expectation is that he could hit $30m average. We are expected to have $34m in cap space entering 2018 but that will obviously change if we resign EJ Gaines (Spotrac Market Value of over $9m/annually) but cut Tyrod Taylor. What we do with Cordy Glenn is interesting. I could see them trading him elsewhere for a mid round pick of some sort but would incur significant dead money to do it.

 

[humpback]

It's a pretty difficult comparison to make. Alex Smith was a former 1st overall QB. Generally those are guys that are expected to be QBs of the future and to become elite QBs, neither of which was Alex Smith. His knocks are the same ones that people (myself included) get frustrated with Tyrod for. He won't make the tight throws and isn't aggressive enough. I believe that Tyrod has regressed each year he's been the starter for us. In 2015 he was much more willing to throw it deep, last year he got too careful with it and this year he was still checking it down like Trent Edwards but lost all pocket awareness and took numerous awful sacks. That isn't the same story for Alex, but he is who he is. If you're expecting Alex to be an elite QB you're going to be disappointed. 

Kirk Cousins was a former 4th round QB. The expectations for him coming out of college was that he would be the career backup to RGIII. His first full season as a starter he threw for over 4100 yards, 29 TDs, 11 INTs and ran for 5 more TDs. Year 13 of Alex's career was the first time he broke 4,000 yards (previous career high of 3502). He threw 26 TDs (previous high of 23, last season only had 15) and had 1 rushing TD. They're very different QBs, so comparing one to the other is difficult. Both are at different stages of their career as Cousins could still be reaching his ceiling while what we saw from Alex is most likely the best we will ever see.

I would compare Kirk to a better Derek Carr. Carr signed a 5 year, $125 million deal, so he would be averaging $25m. Matthew Stafford also has similar numbers and he signed a 5 year, $135m deal, averaging $27m. Both of these guys stayed on their teams and would have likely made more on the open market. That is why the expectation is that he could hit $30m average. We are expected to have $34m in cap space entering 2018 but that will obviously change if we resign EJ Gaines (Spotrac Market Value of over $9m/annually) but cut Tyrod Taylor. What we do with Cordy Glenn is interesting. I could see them trading him elsewhere for a mid round pick of some sort but would incur significant dead money to do it.

I wasn't comparing them other than saying they both don't get the respect they deserve. 

Smith isn't elite, but there are very few elite QBs in the NFL. He's far superior to Tyrod and better than many give him credit for. I mean, he led the entire NFL in passer rating this year...

 

[Tommy Collins]

I wasn't comparing them other than saying they both don't get the respect they deserve. 

Smith isn't elite, but there are very few elite QBs in the NFL. He's far superior to Tyrod and better than many give him credit for. I mean, he led the entire NFL in passer rating this year...

But when you break them both down, how would you say that Alex's skill set is better than what Tyrod provides? From my angle they both rely on the checkdown too often and won't make tight throws. Perhaps he's more efficient, takes fewer bad sacks (highly likely this is accurate) and is more knowledgeable, but from my standpoint it's going to be the same damn offense in 2018 that we had in 2016 & 2017 with Tyrod.

 

[msommer]

I would compare Kirk to a better Derek Carr. Carr signed a 5 year, $125 million deal, so he would be averaging $25m.

Derek Carr actually signed a five year extension that included a pay increase in the year he already was under contract (the 0th or 6th year if you like, which was 2017) for a total of $125 million. 2018 will be his only year his cap hit will be $25 million and 2017 is the only year in the contract he actually makes $25m in cool cash.

2017: $25,175,000.

2018: $22,750,000

2019: $20,000,000

2020: $19,000,000

2021: $19,625,000

2022: $19,877,519

The weird number in 2022 is due to his originally scheduled rookie salary in 2017: $977,519

His average salary over the period 2017-2022 (six seasons) is $21,071,253.16

 

[shadrap]

Cousins doesn't get the respect he deserves. People thought Gruden was crazy for rolling with him over RGIII but it was the right decision. His numbers are down this year but he lost his #1 and #2 WRs (DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon) and replaced them with Terrelle Pryor who did not do well at all and Josh Doctson who was inconsistent and injured this year. His only other top receiving option from last year was Jordan Reed who spent most of the season on IR and made very little contributions. There was no running game. His only weapon this year was Chris Thompson, who was eventually on IR for the year. 

I just don't understand what people expected from him this year. His team did him no service by letting his top two WRs walk in free agency. It's not like Buffalo has better weapons in the passing game at this point, but if you're going to expect excellent numbers and production, there needs to be talent surrounding the QB for that to happen. There are only so many Peyton, Brady and Rodgers type QBs to make plays despite their surrounding cast. 

The reason I want Cousins is because the draft is a crapshoot AND it takes time to develop a rookie QB. If we signed Cousins in FA (for whatever it cost), we'd have a 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5 to address WR, RB, RG, RT, DT, DE, LB. We're much more likely to get there through that approach than to spend multiple picks to draft a QB. I suppose if we landed low key guys like Poyer who had great seasons for us in free agency that would work out. 

I think one of the other reasons I don't want a rookie is because we don't have the supporting talent at this time to help him. We would need to be absolutely positive the right side of our OL is fixed and we'd have to get him some weapons in the passing game. A veteran QB could make due with lesser talent there. 

I agree with all of this, especially the 3rd paragraph. 

 

[humpback]

But when you break them both down, how would you say that Alex's skill set is better than what Tyrod provides? From my angle they both rely on the checkdown too often and won't make tight throws. Perhaps he's more efficient, takes fewer bad sacks (highly likely this is accurate) and is more knowledgeable, but from my standpoint it's going to be the same damn offense in 2018 that we had in 2016 & 2017 with Tyrod.

I'm not really following you. Are you saying that the offense wouldn't be better if Tyrod played better? Because that's what Smith would do, considering he's a much better QB.

KC had the 5th best offense in terms of yards, 6th best in terms of points, and 7th in passing yards. Buffalo was 29th, 22nd, and 31st. Smith was 1st on passer rating and 2nd in yards per attempt, Tyrod was 16th in rating and 23rd in ypa. On and on.

I'm not saying it would be some wide open offense where they chuck the ball 600 times with Smith, but even if it was the same style the results would be much better because he would be better at running it.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

I'm not really following you. Are you saying that the offense wouldn't be better if Tyrod played better? Because that's what Smith would do, considering he's a much better QB.

KC had the 5th best offense in terms of yards, 6th best in terms of points, and 7th in passing yards. Buffalo was 29th, 22nd, and 31st. Smith was 1st on passer rating and 2nd in yards per attempt, Tyrod was 16th in rating and 23rd in ypa. On and on.

I'm not saying it would be some wide open offense where they chuck the ball 600 times with Smith, but even if it was the same style the results would be much better because he would be better at running it.

That's my take, as well. Yes, they are similar QBs, but Smith is just significantly better.

That said, I think I'm in the Kirk Cousins camp. It will be expensive, whereas a rookie would be cheap, but at least it's a known commodity. Then they can spend the draft capital on other holes. On the other hand... They've done well so far with FAs, so maybe you can plug some of those holes with FAs... 

 

[themeistersinger]

I'm not saying they are going to draft another flop, like Manuel. I'm just saying that they have gone against the grain so often, that it could very likely happen again when they do draft a QB. For example, taking the 3rd-5th best QB on the experts' rankings.

If I recall, Jim Kelly was the fourth QB taken and Marino the fifth in that draft.  So no guarantees no matter when or where you take a guy. 

If we're sitting at 20 and there is a guy ranked around 30-35 on our board, I would be OK taking him at 20.  If there is a guy ranked 15 on our board, I'd be OK trading up to 10 to get him (probably take both first round picks for that move).  But if we're at 20 and the best QB still available is 50th on our board, then pass on QB and take the best value we can get where we are.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

If I recall, Jim Kelly was the fourth QB taken and Marino the fifth in that draft.  So no guarantees no matter when or where you take a guy. 

If we're sitting at 20 and there is a guy ranked around 30-35 on our board, I would be OK taking him at 20.  If there is a guy ranked 15 on our board, I'd be OK trading up to 10 to get him (probably take both first round picks for that move).  But if we're at 20 and the best QB still available is 50th on our board, then pass on QB and take the best value we can get where we are.

Yeah, I totally agree. I'm not saying I'm against reaching a bit. I just think it's kind of likely with this management group.

And, I also wouldn't mind if they move up a bit to get someone they are confident with. They've earned the benefit of the doubt. I am a bit skeptical of this QB class, though, so while I'd normally be fine with selling the farm for a good shot at a franchise QB, I'm not sure that guy is in this class. 1 or 2 are bound to pan out, but it doesn't seem like the prospects are anywhere near a lock this year.

 

[Tommy Collins]

I'm not really following you. Are you saying that the offense wouldn't be better if Tyrod played better? Because that's what Smith would do, considering he's a much better QB.

KC had the 5th best offense in terms of yards, 6th best in terms of points, and 7th in passing yards. Buffalo was 29th, 22nd, and 31st. Smith was 1st on passer rating and 2nd in yards per attempt, Tyrod was 16th in rating and 23rd in ypa. On and on.

I'm not saying it would be some wide open offense where they chuck the ball 600 times with Smith, but even if it was the same style the results would be much better because he would be better at running it.

Alex is a better QB, but he's got a lot of the same warts that Tyrod does. I can't attribute Alex being fully responsible for those offensive numbers as Andy Reid's offenses are usually pretty productive. And you pointing out that he was 1st in QB Rating and 2nd in YPA, but this was a career year for him. He's going to return back down to Earth, especially since he will be entering his 14th season. I'm sure the offense would be better, but I have a hard buying that it would be "much better because he would be better at running it." I will agree that Alex is a better QB though. There's been a lot of Chiefs fans wanting to get rid of Alex for a while now, even before Mahomes was drafted. There's obviously a reason for it and while his stats and his offense from this year looked good, there's always more to the story.

 

[Gawain]

I don't want Alex Smith unless the staff thinks that Smith + Draft picks can get them to 1st in the division. Another year of 9-7 ball and maybe backing into the WC round for an early exit isn't going to wet my whistle. Smith feels like a stop gap only to get us to a younger guy and I'd rather see someone else in that role (for me, specifically Bradford).

If the staff feels that Smith is what will make them a true contender for 2018, I likely won't agree with their determination, but can buy the decision.

 

[humpback]

Alex is a better QB, but he's got a lot of the same warts that Tyrod does. I can't attribute Alex being fully responsible for those offensive numbers as Andy Reid's offenses are usually pretty productive. And you pointing out that he was 1st in QB Rating and 2nd in YPA, but this was a career year for him. He's going to return back down to Earth, especially since he will be entering his 14th season. I'm sure the offense would be better, but I have a hard buying that it would be "much better because he would be better at running it." I will agree that Alex is a better QB though. There's been a lot of Chiefs fans wanting to get rid of Alex for a while now, even before Mahomes was drafted. There's obviously a reason for it and while his stats and his offense from this year looked good, there's always more to the story.

Smith has warts, every player does, but they are fewer in number and smaller in size than Tyrod's by a pretty wide margin. That's the point- he isn't Aaron Rodgers, but most aren't. However, he is a significant improvement over the status quo.

I didn't post those numbers to say he's the best QB in the NFL, that's he's going to continue to put up similar/better numbers, or that the Bills would be one of the top offenses in the league with him at QB, just to show how big the difference is between he and Tyrod. If the Bills had a middle of the road offense instead of one of the worst, they'd be actual contenders. I'm pretty confident that they would have an average offense and would be playing this week if they had Smith instead of Tyrod.

You said "hell no" to Smith, while I'd gladly take him. I guess we should just agree to disagree.

 

[Steve Tasker]

Remember when the Bills last made the playoffs?  I DO 

 

[msommer]

Brandon Beane: We are looking for a Franchise QB

TL;DR "Tyrod, it's been real, don't let the door hit you in the ### on your way out"

 

[GroveDiesel]

Rick Dennison fired today. Good. Let's bring in someone that has some creativity and is willing to adapt to his players.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Rick Dennison fired today. Good. Let's bring in someone that has some creativity and is willing to adapt to his players.

Very nice. This is the off-season to revamp the offense.

 

[BlueDredSo]

Reports that McCoy and Chudzinski are front-runners. Makes sense. Rodak also mentioned Philly's QB coach who did wonders with Carson Wentz. A lot of good options out there IMO. A local reporter (Brad Gelber) noted that McDermott and Beane are so unlike past regimes. They see a problem and they move to fix it. TRUST THE PROCESS.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

Oh.

 

[Ridcully]

Bills > Steelers

 

[GroveDiesel]

Bills hired Brian Daboll as their OC. 

Honestly, not a ton for me to say. I don't have a great read one way or the other. Probably the best thing in his favor is that Belichick and Saban both hired him multiple times. 

 

[humpback]

Bills hired Brian Daboll as their OC. 

Honestly, not a ton for me to say. I don't have a great read one way or the other. Probably the best thing in his favor is that Belichick and Saban both hired him multiple times. 

 

[Mr. Peterson]

I wasn’t that big of a fan of Daboll.  Maybe he does have something to him if Belichick keeps wanting him back.  

But I was really impressed how quickly he was able to change his offense in the second half of the National Championship game once they brought in Tua.  One of my main problems with Dennison was that he refused to adapt to his players strengths and only coached what he knew.  Daboll completely changed the offense for the new QB and they won the Championship because of it.  

My biggest concern is how is he at grooming a rookie QB?  I’m hoping we draft one early and let him sit and learn for a year.  Can Daboll coach him up to be a franchise QB? 

 

[themeistersinger]

Bills hired Brian Daboll as their OC. 

Honestly, not a ton for me to say. I don't have a great read one way or the other. Probably the best thing in his favor is that Belichick and Saban both hired him multiple times. 

When it comes to assistant coaches, I'm a pretty casual fan, so this is not at all based on tons of personal knowledge.  But I like what I have heard so far.

Pros

Had two stints with the Patriots and Bellichick, so the fact that Billy would take him back is somewhat impressive to me - Bellichick doesn't seem like a guy that will kiss and make up too easily.

Has had NFL OC Experience on 3 teams

Known as a guy that fits the scheme to the personnel (HALLELUJAH!)

Cons

Offense was bad to awful for every NFL team where he was the OC - but if you look at his head coach and his starting QB - hard to see anybody else succeeding in those situations either

 

[GroveDiesel]

When it comes to assistant coaches, I'm a pretty casual fan, so this is not at all based on tons of personal knowledge.  But I like what I have heard so far.

Pros

Had two stints with the Patriots and Bellichick, so the fact that Billy would take him back is somewhat impressive to me - Bellichick doesn't seem like a guy that will kiss and make up too easily.

Has had NFL OC Experience on 3 teams

Known as a guy that fits the scheme to the personnel (HALLELUJAH!)

Cons

Offense was bad to awful for every NFL team where he was the OC - but if you look at his head coach and his starting QB - hard to see anybody else succeeding in those situations either

That's one of my favorite things I've read about him. Here's a great quote from him after they beat LSU this year:

 You choose what you want to do and each week based on what the other team does, based on the coverages that they play.  You don't just draw up new stuff every week...We can expand that or contract it or use the things that we think are best based on what the other team plays. I think that's what we've tried to do all year long and that's what gives the players the best chance to execute."

He also uses more of a power blocking scheme versus a zone blocking scheme. The Bills' O-line seems much more suited to the power blocking scheme than zone blocking that Dennison tried to force on them.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Also like hearing that there are reports that people in New England were a bit stunned by the hire because he was on their short list to replace a likely departing McDaniels.

 

[GroveDiesel]

If the Bills are going to draft a QB, which one would you want them to draft?Include what it would take to move up if likely needed when making your decision.

 

[BlueDredSo]

If the Bills are going to draft a QB, which one would you want them to draft?Include what it would take to move up if likely needed when making your decision.

I don't know how I feel about trading up. It's always a gamble, obviously. However, I "trust the process" and if Beane & McDermott want to cement their legacy in Buffalo by giving up a ransom of draft picks to get "their guy" I think I'd be fine with that. From what I've heard their two 1st rd picks are basically worth the 7th pick in the draft. Tampa Bay doesn't need a QB, but who's going to be there? Definitely not Rosen or Darnold. Is it worth trading away both 1st rd picks (and maybe more) for Mayfield or Allen? I don't think it is and wouldn't feel great if they did that. I'd feel better if they just waited to see if Jackson or Rudolph falls. Hell, maybe Allen or Mayfield fall? I think I'd feel ok if they moved up slightly to draft a QB. For instance, trade the 21st pick and a 3rd rounder for pick 13 to get Mayfield or Jackson (I have no idea if that's what it'd take, but sounds about right to me).

The more I think about it, the more I'm leaning towards just waiting it out and seeing who's there at pick 21. I'm intrigued by Mason Rudolph but really don't know a whole lot about the kid. He obviously put up monster #'s in a spread offense. I like that he's big and athletic, can apparently make all the throws. I'd like to know more about his deficiencies. What makes him a late 1st or early 2nd instead of a top 5 or even top 15 pick?

I also think Jackson is super interesting. The guy is obviously a playmaker, but can he be Deshaun Watson? I think it's entirely possible. Just wish he was a little bulkier. That thin frame isn't going to last long in the NFL, especially if he's going to be running as much as everyone seems to think he will.

Giving up so many picks to get to #2, assuming the Giants would do it, just seems very "non-process", haha. Could they do it? Sure they could. I just have a feeling they won't. I'd be thrilled if the Bills landed Rosen or Darnold, but I'm definitely not counting on it.

In the end, as long as they get 1 of these top 6 guys, then I'm happy...and as always being a Bills fan, (overly) optimistic.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I think this is a thought provoking rant from Sal Capaccio. 

He points out that the 3 most established good QBs in the AFC are all older and getting close to retirement (Brady, Roethlisberger and Rivers). If the Bills were able to draft a great young QB, that could set them up for a very long time of success. It's why ultimately, I'd rather through Bills draft a QB than go after a Cousins, Smith, Bradford/Bridgewater/Keenum.

At the same time, I don't want to give up what it takes to get to #1 or #2 which is what I think it will take to get Rosen or Darnold. But if they have the opportunity to get to 12-15 and get Baker Mayfield, I'm in. I'm not sure that the Bills will have any interest in Mayfield due to some of his off-field issues, but I absolutely love the kid's game. He can make all the throws, he can avoid pressure, he is tremendously accurate, he seems to command a lot of respect from his teammates, and while he can be a freelancer, I don't think he resorts to the same sort of stupid plays a guy like Manziel made.

Rudolph, Jackson and Allen all have some things I like, but they all suffer from the same major issue to me that is an issue that simply isn't correctable 99% of the time: accuracy. All three of them have problems with ball location and have disturbingly low completion percentages for top QB prospects IMO. Out of the 3, I'd probably take Jackson just due to his ridiculous tools, but all things considered with talent and what it may take to draft him, I'd take Mayfield.

 

[BlueDredSo]

I think this is a thought provoking rant from Sal Capaccio. 

He points out that the 3 most established good QBs in the AFC are all older and getting close to retirement (Brady, Roethlisberger and Rivers). If the Bills were able to draft a great young QB, that could set them up for a very long time of success. It's why ultimately, I'd rather through Bills draft a QB than go after a Cousins, Smith, Bradford/Bridgewater/Keenum.

At the same time, I don't want to give up what it takes to get to #1 or #2 which is what I think it will take to get Rosen or Darnold. But if they have the opportunity to get to 12-15 and get Baker Mayfield, I'm in. I'm not sure that the Bills will have any interest in Mayfield due to some of his off-field issues, but I absolutely love the kid's game. He can make all the throws, he can avoid pressure, he is tremendously accurate, he seems to command a lot of respect from his teammates, and while he can be a freelancer, I don't think he resorts to the same sort of stupid plays a guy like Manziel made.

Rudolph, Jackson and Allen all have some things I like, but they all suffer from the same major issue to me that is an issue that simply isn't correctable 99% of the time: accuracy. All three of them have problems with ball location and have disturbingly low completion percentages for top QB prospects IMO. Out of the 3, I'd probably take Jackson just due to his ridiculous tools, but all things considered with talent and what it may take to draft him, I'd take Mayfield.

I'll admit I didn't get to watch as many college games this year as I would've liked, especially featuring all these QBs. If all of these points are true, then sign me up for Mayfield:

He can make all the throws, he can avoid pressure, he is tremendously accurate

Is he smart, football-wise? Is he able to read defenses and adjust at the LOS? I know "freelancing" QBs don't depend on that as much, but it'd be nice to know that he's completely capable of doing it.

The least exciting guys seem to be Allen and Rudolph. While I'd be fine if the Bills landed either of them, I'd certainly hope they don't trade up to do it.

 

[humpback]

I think this is a thought provoking rant from Sal Capaccio. 

He points out that the 3 most established good QBs in the AFC are all older and getting close to retirement (Brady, Roethlisberger and Rivers). If the Bills were able to draft a great young QB, that could set them up for a very long time of success. It's why ultimately, I'd rather through Bills draft a QB than go after a Cousins, Smith, Bradford/Bridgewater/Keenum.

At the same time, I don't want to give up what it takes to get to #1 or #2 which is what I think it will take to get Rosen or Darnold. But if they have the opportunity to get to 12-15 and get Baker Mayfield, I'm in. I'm not sure that the Bills will have any interest in Mayfield due to some of his off-field issues, but I absolutely love the kid's game. He can make all the throws, he can avoid pressure, he is tremendously accurate, he seems to command a lot of respect from his teammates, and while he can be a freelancer, I don't think he resorts to the same sort of stupid plays a guy like Manziel made.

Rudolph, Jackson and Allen all have some things I like, but they all suffer from the same major issue to me that is an issue that simply isn't correctable 99% of the time: accuracy. All three of them have problems with ball location and have disturbingly low completion percentages for top QB prospects IMO. Out of the 3, I'd probably take Jackson just due to his ridiculous tools, but all things considered with talent and what it may take to draft him, I'd take Mayfield.

Sure, but that's one gigantic "if". I mean, it's far from certain that any QB in this draft is going to be great.

I'd strongly prefer going after one of the vet QB's- it's rare that so many are available at the same time, and it's not like they are ancient. Cousins will be 30, Smith will be 34, so both could easily give you 5+ more years of solid play, which is an eternity in the NFL. That would give them stability/certainty at the QB position, freeing them up to go BPA with their draft picks and let the draft come to them instead of forcing things. If/when a QB that they like falls by all means take them, but you had better be right if you're going to give up a ton of draft capital to move up and get "your guy".

Of course, it all depends on what it would take to sign/trade for a veteran as well.

 

[Grahamburn]

If the Bills are going to draft a QB, which one would you want them to draft?Include what it would take to move up if likely needed when making your decision.

Draft calculators this Bucs' fan has looked at have the #7 and Tampa's 3rd rounder worthy of Buffalo's two 1sts and their 2nd round pick.  If Chubb and Nelson weren't available I'd gladly trade back with the Bills if there was a guy at #7 they liked.

 

[Tommy Collins]

Draft calculators this Bucs' fan has looked at have the #7 and Tampa's 3rd rounder worthy of Buffalo's two 1sts and their 2nd round pick.  If Chubb and Nelson weren't available I'd gladly trade back with the Bills if there was a guy at #7 they liked.

I would hope this regime wouldn't be willing to trade a 1, 1, 2 for 7th overall and a 3rd.

The thing is the Bills had a chance to draft Mahomes and Watson last year and they passed on them. They traded back and got the KC 1st this year in exchange for it. To then combine their 1st and KC's 1st to move up to draft a QB seems strange to me. Why wait another year to address the need when those 2 guys were available? First off, there's no slam dunk QB in this class, so it's unlikely to me that they were drooling over anybody in particular in this class. And there's no guarantee they would get them in the 2018 draft, whereas they definitely could've taken Mahomes and Watson. 

I doubt they trade up. I'm not quite sure what their plan is but it doesn't seem like a McDermott & Beane thing to trade that much draft capital for a QB. I also didn't see them trading for Kelvin Benjamin at the deadline either, although that cost them significantly less than a trade like this would.

 

[humpback]

I would hope this regime wouldn't be willing to trade a 1, 1, 2 for 7th overall and a 3rd.

The thing is the Bills had a chance to draft Mahomes and Watson last year and they passed on them. They traded back and got the KC 1st this year in exchange for it. To then combine their 1st and KC's 1st to move up to draft a QB seems strange to me. Why wait another year to address the need when those 2 guys were available? First off, there's no slam dunk QB in this class, so it's unlikely to me that they were drooling over anybody in particular in this class. And there's no guarantee they would get them in the 2018 draft, whereas they definitely could've taken Mahomes and Watson. 

I doubt they trade up. I'm not quite sure what their plan is but it doesn't seem like a McDermott & Beane thing to trade that much draft capital for a QB. I also didn't see them trading for Kelvin Benjamin at the deadline either, although that cost them significantly less than a trade like this would.

The easiest answer to the question "why would they do this now instead of last year?" is because it's a different regime now, so you can pretty much throw last year out the window. That said, plenty of people were drooling over this QB class a year ago, so it's certainly possible that the general plan was to give Tyrod a year in the new system and then draft one this year if he didn't work out.

This is not only Beane's first free agency period and draft in Buffalo, it's his first ever as a GM, so it's really hard to predict what they're going to do. Going to be an interesting off season for sure.

 

[Grahamburn]

I would hope this regime wouldn't be willing to trade a 1, 1, 2 for 7th overall and a 3rd.

Just posting what I think it would take.  They have the ammunition this year to go get "their guy."  Nobody would care what they gave up if they land a franchise QB with the pick.  The Eagles don't care.  The Texans don't care. 

 

[BlueDredSo]

Just posting what I think it would take.  They have the ammunition this year to go get "their guy."  Nobody would care what they gave up if they land a franchise QB with the pick.  The Eagles don't care.  The Texans don't care. 

Are you sure this is correct? I just heard in the past day or so that the Bills two 1st rd picks are basically worth the 7th pick in the draft. No need for the Bills 2nd and Bucs' 3rd to be involved. Although, there is usually a bit of a "tax" on the team trading up. I doubt it'd be a 2nd rounder though, that seems excessive even if they're getting a 3rd in return. I'm thinking more along the lines of the two 1st rd picks and then their 3rd rd pick. I highly, highly doubt they'd trade 3 of their first 4 picks to only move up to #7

 

[Grahamburn]

Are you sure this is correct? I just heard in the past day or so that the Bills two 1st rd picks are basically worth the 7th pick in the draft. No need for the Bills 2nd and Bucs' 3rd to be involved. Although, there is usually a bit of a "tax" on the team trading up. I doubt it'd be a 2nd rounder though, that seems excessive even if they're getting a 3rd in return. I'm thinking more along the lines of the two 1st rd picks and then their 3rd rd pick. I highly, highly doubt they'd trade 3 of their first 4 picks to only move up to #7

The calculations aren't as close as I originally remember.  When I looked at this a couple weeks ago I assumed KC would beat Tennessee rendering that pick less valuable.  Now that pick is #22 instead of #28 or so when I ran it the first time.  They are definitely in favor of the Bucs (#7) in this scenario.  Even if Tampa gave up their second and Buffalo their third it would still favor the Bucs.  There's always a QB "tax" though. 

 

[ScottNorwood]

On the QB front, my sources are telling my that Josh Rosen is slated to be the best Jewish QB since Sid Luckman.  I’d be ok with giving both our 1st rounders and next years 1st rounder if we could get him.  For the rest of them, I’d just take whoever falls to the 20th pick (assuming the Bills don’t land a good Free Agent).

 

[Hankmoody]

Are you sure this is correct? I just heard in the past day or so that the Bills two 1st rd picks are basically worth the 7th pick in the draft. No need for the Bills 2nd and Bucs' 3rd to be involved. Although, there is usually a bit of a "tax" on the team trading up. I doubt it'd be a 2nd rounder though, that seems excessive even if they're getting a 3rd in return. I'm thinking more along the lines of the two 1st rd picks and then their 3rd rd pick. I highly, highly doubt they'd trade 3 of their first 4 picks to only move up to #7

It's a very inexact valuation.  Much like FF trades, everyone has different opinions of what something is worth.  It's generally credited that Jimmy Johnson created a chart with a numeric value that each pick holds and that this is how the Cowboys decided how to put their drafts and draft trades together.  So for example, #7 is worth 1500 "points" and #21 and #22 are 850 and 800 respectively so it makes sense that those two firsts might get the #7 pick.  Again though, there's nothing authoritative about this chart and values can end up varying wildly.  Generally, when you're moving up for a QB, there's a premium paid. 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/draft/draft-trade-chart/

 

[Ranethe]

I think the Bills would be smartest to go the FA route. I know there are many Bills fans who would disagree but I think Cousins would be a perfect fit for the Bills. They're a playoff team right now so functional QB play would go a long way and they could utilize those firsts elsewhere.

Barring that, I think Allen would be interesting. Somewhat Big Ben ish, possibly available outside the top 10 (though maybe not likely), cold weather QB. I know there are concerns about his accuracy and he's considered "raw". McShay addressed this a bit saying Wyoming was terrible: he had apparently lost 3 starting OL's and his WR's dropped a ton of balls. 

 

[Bracie Smathers]

If the Bills were able to draft a great young QB, that could set them up for a very long time of success. It's why ultimately, I'd rather through Bills draft a QB than go after a Cousins, Smith, Bradford/Bridgewater/Keenum.

At the same time, I don't want to give up what it takes to get to #1 or #2 which is what I think it will take to get Rosen or Darnold. But if they have the opportunity to get to 12-15 and get Baker Mayfield, I'm in.

I agree that it would take too-much to move up to #1 or #2 but I don't think Mayfield drops to #21.

The top-two picks will undoubtedly be QBs.

• 1.  CLE - QB
  
• 2. NYG - QB
  
• 3. IND - no way they would give the Jets or Dolphins or Bills their franchise QB and DEN can get either Josh Allen or Mayfield with the #4 pick so they aren't moving up so I think Indianapolis takes the BPA, either RB Saquon or DE Bradley Chubb
  
• 4.  CLE - the 'best case' for a team moving-up and for the Browns to move down would be here IMHO but I doubt they would move down that far.  They have three-second round picks in this draft so I doubt they would move down for low first-round picks.  They can stay put and get a blue-chip prospect but 'might' be interested in making a small move down so long as they can still get a blue-chip prospect.  The Jets have already stated they are open to trading up and it would make sense to leapfrog the Broncos.  
  
• 5.  DEN - dire need of a QB and they sought out Mayfield to take part in the bowl game that their coaching staff will be coaching.  I don't think any chance that they trade down if a QB is worthy of this pick and I think they will convince themselves that one is worthy of the pick.
  
• 6.  NYJ - dire need of a QB so a good chance one goes here.  No way they trade a 'potential franchise QB' to any team in the division and if they feel a QB could turn into a franchise they will take them.
  

Then you have #11 MIA and #15 ARI so I highlly doubt that Mayfiled or any QB who has a 'good chance' of turning into a franchise QB falls all the way to #21.

If a QB falls past the Jets then Buffalo has to leapfrog Miami and if one falls past Miami they have to leapfrog Arizona.  I think they can do it but it depends on who is available and what they think of any QB that 'might' fall.  I think the top-two QBs will definitely go #1 and #2 and at least one more will go to DEN or NYJ.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Just posting what I think it would take.  They have the ammunition this year to go get "their guy."  Nobody would care what they gave up if they land a franchise QB with the pick.  The Eagles don't care.  The Texans don't care. 

Exactly.  The draft is months away, and I'm already sick of hearing people bellyaching about how expensive it is to move up and what a big risk it is to deal a bunch of picks for a QB.  This team has neglected the QB position for way too long, and it's all just been an exercise in excuse-making and risk-aversion.  If we hit on that pick and get the right guy, he'll be a bargain no matter what we give up.  This isn't like trading up from somebody like Sammy Watkins -- a franchise QB is pretty much priceless and is always worth the investment.