I agree with most of this in general, but how can anyone be fairly certain that they guy they draft is going to be a franchise QB? Here is the list of QBs drafted in the 1st round going back to 2000 (not including last year)- presumably all of those teams felt the guys they were taking were franchise QBs, but clearly most were wrong. The odds are better the higher you draft one, but they still aren't good, and I have a hard time giving up 4-5 (or more) premium picks for 1 guy with those type of odds.
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2021 Buffalo Bills - Same as it ever was*** (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter GroveDiesel
- Start date
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The thing is, if you never take your shot at finding a QB - you'll likely never find one.
It's a classic "risk v. reward" situation. In the NFL, for the most part, you're only as good as your QB. And yes I know you can list many outliers but it doesn't change the overall point.
Few if any have talked about getting a QB more than me in this thread, so we're on the same page there. I was against the EJ pick because it was pretty obvious to me that he wasn't good, but even after that pick I wanted them to take another QB in the same draft because the position is so important. I wish they would have signed Bridgewater along with McCarron for the same reason. The fact that they mistakenly thought they had a franchise QB in Fitzpatrick and Tyrod caused them to pass up the opportunity to get several QBs who have become franchise guys as well. I want them to draft/sign one or two every year until they are certain they have a good one.
It's all about your 2nd paragraph. If they already had a top 4 pick, it would be a no-brainer. To give up 4, 5, or 6 good picks to get it? That's a very different calculation.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
No question, giving up a ton to move up would be a risky proposition. As much as I loved them overachieving and making the playoffs, it had a potentially hugely negative affect on their future. What sucks is there are so many decent QB prospects this year, but so many QB needy teams picking in the top 10 as well. Although I have a feeling that QBs may fall more than people think.
As much as I think Kiper has been passed by and isn't worth listening to, I would take his latest mock draft for the Bills in a heartbeat: Tremaine Edmunds at 12 and Lamar Jackson at 22. But with everything Beane has said about QBs, I can't see them taking a guy like Jackson, even if he is more of a pocket passer than he gets credit for.
Tommy Collins
Footballguy
I don't like him because he was a 1 read QB who would immediately pull the ball down and take off with it rather than progress to the next read. Steep learning curve ahead of him.
I've never been a fan of Trepasso and actually stopped following BR when he took over for Brian Galliford. But this just is incredible. The #1 QB? He will be eating those words.
Not a bills fan but why would you want L Jackson? He is similar to T Taylor and scored 13 on wonderlic.
Tommy Collins
Footballguy
I wouldn't worry about the Wonderlic. But I wouldn't want Jackson for that same reason. During 2017 season it seemed apparent that the Bills wanted a pocket passer. That is not want Jackson is, so I question that fit.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I disagree. I think Jackson absolutely is a pocket passer. He's much much more natural and comfortable there than Tyrod has ever been.
Jackson just happens to have an additional ability to run that no other QB has.
https://fullpresscoverage.com/2018/01/22/lamar-jackson/
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I would be totally happy with Lamar Jackson if the Bills think they can win with him. Tyrod Taylor's issues weren't caused by him being a mobile QB. He's not in Buffalo anymore because he wouldn't throw to open receivers.
daveR
Footballguy
I saw it & they didn't say that. What they said is that 25 seems to be the max for returns. That is, up to 25 it is significant to some degree. Above 25 doesn't seem to make the QB more likely to succeed. (ex: QB1 has 15, QB2 has 25, QB3 has 35. In this case QB2 & QB3 have an equal chance of success. Each would also have a better chance of success than QB1.)
It basically said, a Qb with wonderlic below 25 had a less of a chance for success then one with 25 and higher. Given whats at stake here, why would you draft a Qb with a 13 wonderlic??
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
If I did or did not, it would have absolutely nothing to do with his Wonderlic score.
Ryan Fitzapatrick scored nearly perfectly on it and he's one of the dumbest decision makers on the field that I have ever watched play.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Actually I did not, and since you interpret it that way (even offering a childish emoticon) it may say something about yours.So you're saying QB intelligence doesn't matter at all??
Maybe the Wonderlic isn't the best predictive tool for in-game intelligence, understand?
I'm going to make an educated guess that something the entire NFL uses for the past 30 years is an important tool to evaluate players on and off the field. But apparently you know something everyone else doesn't so please share what you would use??
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I would use game tape, discussions with his college coaches concerning his ability to learn a playbook and how much they allowed him to change plays, and interviews with the player giving him some plays and then asking him to talk through his pre-snap decision making based on given defenses.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Honestly, you should actually look into what the wonderlic actually consists of and what the scores mean. Maybe then you would temper your assumptions as to what actually those in a position to draft look for.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Welp, Incognito is retiring. Maybe.
I was pretty surprised when he took a straight pay cut entering the final year of his deal this year. And then he fired his agency rather publicly. And now he has tweeted out that he is done. And Peter King has tweeted out that Incognito has told him that he is retired but would play one more year at the "right price".
So sounds to me like the Bills went to his agent and asked him to take a straight pay cut and the agency didn't relay that information to Incognito properly. And he's not only not happy at all about, but is willing to walk away rather than suffer that insult.
This team should not waste assets to trade up this year. They have a lot of holes and will have even more next year. And there is a very good chance that they will be drafting in the top 5 next year where they can then grab a QB.
I was pretty surprised when he took a straight pay cut entering the final year of his deal this year. And then he fired his agency rather publicly. And now he has tweeted out that he is done. And Peter King has tweeted out that Incognito has told him that he is retired but would play one more year at the "right price".
So sounds to me like the Bills went to his agent and asked him to take a straight pay cut and the agency didn't relay that information to Incognito properly. And he's not only not happy at all about, but is willing to walk away rather than suffer that insult.
This team should not waste assets to trade up this year. They have a lot of holes and will have even more next year. And there is a very good chance that they will be drafting in the top 5 next year where they can then grab a QB.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Update: Vic Carucci tweeted that Incognito is done. But that Incognito told him that the doctor told him that his liver and kidneys are shutting down and that's the reason.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Well, that hurts an already severely depleted OL.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Slider
Footballguy
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I still say if they have a guy they really like they need to go get him. Holes can be filled after you find a plug for the most important hole (by far).
Also, we thought they'd have a top 5 pick this year, right? There's nothing to say McCarron wouldn't step in and lead the team to another 8-9 win season, and we'll be debating this all over again. And next year they won't have the ammo they have this year.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Too bad about Icognito. It was nice to see him turn things around professionally.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Lots of alcohol and roids....Alex P Keaton said:
I know this won't be popular, but I think they should get rid of McCoy and Clay and go full-on rebuild. They are both near the top of the league in cap hits at their position, their production doesn't justify their cost, and neither is likely at all to be part of the team in another year or two when the team actually will have a chance to be good.GroveDiesel said:
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I was saying the same thing last year when they were unloading a lot of other guys, but I'm pretty sure their contracts make them pretty much worthless in terms of trade value.
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The Duff Man
Footballguy
Yeah they won't get much for those guys.
Better to keep them and give the rookie SOME help. It is better than NONE.
Developing who they draft is priority #1, far more important than the result this year, or building draft capital for future years.
Better to keep them and give the rookie SOME help. It is better than NONE.
Developing who they draft is priority #1, far more important than the result this year, or building draft capital for future years.
Borden
Footballguy
I want to agree with you but I think @The Duff Man nailed it. Plus, it’s too late too do that. They would’ve had to have done that prior to FA to make the cap space gained more useful.
Clay they wouldn't get anything thing for, he'd be a straight salary dump. I think they'd be able to get some type of pick for McCoy, but even if they couldn't, I think they're better off in the long run without him (and his salary).
I agree that it would have been better to do this earlier so they could have gone after free agents this off season, but it would still free up space to possibly extend guys who could contribute in the future, and even if they don't use a penny of it this year it would all roll over to next. These two aren't likely to live up to their contracts for next year, and even if they did, the most likely scenario is that it would only hurt their draft position and leave them with less money to improve the team in the future. Seems like a lose/lose.
I also agree with the idea of giving the new QB (be it McCarron or a rookie) some help, but really, how much help are those two guys? Can't a 2nd-4th round pick put up close to similar numbers at a fraction of the cost? Plus you'd have them under cheap control for several more years, with reason to believe they should improve in the future instead of decline like McCoy and Clay. Anyway you slice it, unless you think this is a playoff bound team this year (which is a big stretch), IMO it doesn't make sense to keep them.
I agree that it would have been better to do this earlier so they could have gone after free agents this off season, but it would still free up space to possibly extend guys who could contribute in the future, and even if they don't use a penny of it this year it would all roll over to next. These two aren't likely to live up to their contracts for next year, and even if they did, the most likely scenario is that it would only hurt their draft position and leave them with less money to improve the team in the future. Seems like a lose/lose.
I also agree with the idea of giving the new QB (be it McCarron or a rookie) some help, but really, how much help are those two guys? Can't a 2nd-4th round pick put up close to similar numbers at a fraction of the cost? Plus you'd have them under cheap control for several more years, with reason to believe they should improve in the future instead of decline like McCoy and Clay. Anyway you slice it, unless you think this is a playoff bound team this year (which is a big stretch), IMO it doesn't make sense to keep them.
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
The alcohol part certainly seems like a good possibility. Not sure how else to explain this tweet this morning:
Check out @68INCOGNITO’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/68INCOGNITO/status/984009337789145091?s=09
Dude can talk all he wants about retiring because of health issues, it's pretty obvious he wouldn't be retiring if he wasn't ticked off about the pay cut his agents agreed to.
If this keeps up, it seems like a good bet that the Bills will be going after the $2.5M in signing bonus left that they can go after.
Tommy Collins
Footballguy
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000925891/article/ask-5-which-team-is-most-likely-to-trade-up-for-qb-in-2018-draft
"Conclusion: These are some very interesting responses. I believe the Bills are the team most likely to trade up for a top QB given the package of picks they could offer. They signed AJ McCarron to be their "bridge" QB, but they are still in the market for a franchise quarterback. The fact that they have a workout scheduled with Sam Darnold tells me they have convinced his representation that they are working on trading into the top five of the draft -- I can't see Darnold working out for a team destined to pick outside of the top 10."
"Conclusion: These are some very interesting responses. I believe the Bills are the team most likely to trade up for a top QB given the package of picks they could offer. They signed AJ McCarron to be their "bridge" QB, but they are still in the market for a franchise quarterback. The fact that they have a workout scheduled with Sam Darnold tells me they have convinced his representation that they are working on trading into the top five of the draft -- I can't see Darnold working out for a team destined to pick outside of the top 10."
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Huh?Bills/Bengals week 3 of preseason.
Basically Woodstock 4
NFL gets something right for once.
-QG
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QuizGuy66
Footballguy
given that you guys are the Andy Dalton appreciation society and all the players we've swapped (and that you guys returned the Dalton favor by making sure that we don't resign Bodine) it should be a big old Bengals-Bills lovefest up in Buffalo in preseason week 3.Huh?
Andy and Boyd can thank you guys for all the donations in person.
-QG
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Matt Waldman: Lamar Jackson is the best pocket passer in this class.
If the Patriots take Jackson and he is an unstoppable force that allows them to dominate the NFL in a couple of years I'm going to just quit the NFL.
If the Patriots take Jackson and he is an unstoppable force that allows them to dominate the NFL in a couple of years I'm going to just quit the NFL.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
I want to like him, but his personality and the stuff with his mom really turn me off. Refusing to do the 40 at all, making it difficult to interview him, and other things would scare me off a little.
But there’s no doubt he could be dangerous. If the Bills don’t trade up, take bpa at 12, and then somehow land Jackson at 22 then I would be happy. We’re probably going to need a mobile QB now that we have no offensive line.
Borden
Footballguy
Incognito tweeting that he’s not retiring. I would have to imagine that this is likely tied to some type of money issue. Probably a roster bonus or something. I’m not competent enough of contracts to know how this would work though. @Hankmoody any thoughts?
now he is asking to be released. I know the dude is kind of nuts and a ##### but is this CTE?
The Duff Man
Footballguy
They need to trade Richie. He is obviously not happy. I wonder if the "I am retiring....no I'm not" is schtick based on what happened with line mate Woods.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
He was on the last year of his deal and recently signed a 1 year deal taking a straight pay cut. People were surprised he did that.
Apparently he was too, because within a week or two he fired his longtime agency and then a couple of more weeks later the drama/meltdown started.
Who knows what happened, but clearly he was not onboard with taking a pay cut with nothing in return but signed that deal anyway. Who knows if the Bills got one over on his agents, his agents screwed up and didn't communicate things clearly to him or if he's just a big dummy that didn't realize what was happening until he had already signed the deal.
All the health excuses was just obvious
At this point, he's making himself look like a total clown. His beef should be 100% with his former agents. It was their job to negotiate and to make sure he understood anything he was signing. He could have said no to a pay cut and the Bills could have either paid him his last year of his deal or cut him. But he agreed and signed the new deal. Be a man and play it out. If you're upset, sue you previous agents if you think they messed up.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Couple of Vic Carucci tweets from Brandon Beane.
Seems to be hinting about a trade-up for a franchise QB.
------------------------------------------------------
Vic CarucciVerified account @viccarucci 6h6 hours ago
#Bills have met with all the QBs in the draft, according to Beane, and feel like they "know them all pretty well."
Vic CarucciVerified account @viccarucci 6h6 hours ago
Beane: "We're at 12. I don't know what quarterback's going to be there. I don't know whether we're going up or going down. Even if I wanted (to trade), it takes a partner to do it." #Bills
Vic CarucciVerified account @viccarucci 6h6 hours ago
Beane: "You've got to have a franchise quarterback. That's one of the main jobs of the GM." #Bills
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Seems to be hinting about a trade-up for a franchise QB.
------------------------------------------------------
Vic CarucciVerified account @viccarucci 6h6 hours ago
#Bills have met with all the QBs in the draft, according to Beane, and feel like they "know them all pretty well."
Vic CarucciVerified account @viccarucci 6h6 hours ago
Beane: "We're at 12. I don't know what quarterback's going to be there. I don't know whether we're going up or going down. Even if I wanted (to trade), it takes a partner to do it." #Bills
Vic CarucciVerified account @viccarucci 6h6 hours ago
Beane: "You've got to have a franchise quarterback. That's one of the main jobs of the GM." #Bills
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Ok, I'll start...
at Balt - Win
vs LAC - Win
at Min - Loss
at GB - Loss
vs Tenn - Win
at Houston - Loss
at Indy - Win
vs NE - Loss
vs Chi - Win
at NYJ - Win
vs Jax - Loss
at Mia - Win
vs NYJ - Win
vs Detroit - Loss
at NE - Loss
vs Mia - Win
9-7
at Balt - Win
vs LAC - Win
at Min - Loss
at GB - Loss
vs Tenn - Win
at Houston - Loss
at Indy - Win
vs NE - Loss
vs Chi - Win
at NYJ - Win
vs Jax - Loss
at Mia - Win
vs NYJ - Win
vs Detroit - Loss
at NE - Loss
vs Mia - Win
9-7
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