The Noid
Avoid me!
Just the fact that he is the first of the extension eligible QB's to sign is a big win for the team. He could go from highest paid QB to the 3rd or 4th within the next week.
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2023 Philadelphia Eagles - If it makes us frown, flush it down. On to Dallas. (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter The Noid
- Start date
Insein
Footballguy
Seems like a win win for both sides.
Terpman22
Footballguy
Boom! Very happy and pretty much where everyone thought it would be. NOW, the Birds can concentrate on focusing on everything else as far as roster building is concerned, like making trades for Budda Baker (probably not happening). As mentioned, its a win just getting in before Herbert/Burrow extensions come down the line.
Now just gotta hope Hurts isn't a 1-year wonder. He was really good last year, top-5 in NFL for sure, but it was still just 1 year. This was what got them in trouble with Wentz. Even risking having to pay more later, I think I would have waited until after this season to extend Hurts.
Not saying Hurts is going to go the way Wentz did, or that this is a bad deal, just saying I have more concerns with Hurts than I do other "franchise" QBs.
Not saying Hurts is going to go the way Wentz did, or that this is a bad deal, just saying I have more concerns with Hurts than I do other "franchise" QBs.
Terpman22
Footballguy
I disagree. That is what other divisional teams like to do, franchise, wait, "Oh he actually IS good" and then have to pay more in the long run. No sense in wasting time, and while the Carson deal evenutally fizzled, took 1 year to get out from under and our GM *still* flipped him for a 1st round pick. A lot of people have concerns about him, but the truth is his contract was going to be up after this season anyway. May as well get him in the fold and not have that cloud of "what the cap room" looks like for 2 years. Now they can get to the regular business of NFL Roster building, make trades, sign other guys, etc. To each their own, valid points, but its a risk worth taking with so many good/great young QB's to sign contracts in the next 2 years.
Insein
Footballguy
The benefit of the Carson deal was that they did it early. His salary at the time seemed huge but it's less than half what QBs are getting now and that was just 5 years ago. Jalens contract could be a bargain in 3 years.
It'll be a bargain if 2022 is his normal. My concern is they just paid for a career season for a QB with maybe the easiest job in the NFL when it comes to having the best weapons and OL in the NFL.
Great for Hurts, who many wrote off when he lost his job to Tua at Bama.
massraider
Footballguy
Next year it will be, yeah but can he do it for all five years....
Good move for the Eagles and great move for Hurts. Unless Hurts is nothing like we think he is as a player/human being....this will make the Eagles Super Bowl contenders for the next 5 years. If he COMPLETELy poops the bed....it's only 5 years.
I do get the need for prudence and thinking of the future now..... but I still do want them to load up for bear this draft and get Bijan. Maybe not with 10....but if they can trade back into the 12-16 range; get some more picks and Bijan....that O will completely roll for the next 5 years.
I do get the need for prudence and thinking of the future now..... but I still do want them to load up for bear this draft and get Bijan. Maybe not with 10....but if they can trade back into the 12-16 range; get some more picks and Bijan....that O will completely roll for the next 5 years.
modogg
Footballguy
agreed i think this is a win for the Eagles. Definitely puts the Bengals and Chargers in a tough spot now, will be interesting how much they have to give up to keep Burrow and Herbert
Terpman22
Footballguy
I'm with the "Get Bijan Trade, but definitely not at 10" crowd. Hurts can't be the goaline back his entire career, would love someone like him to come in and help pass protect and get those goaline rushes.
As for key positions we need to address, via the draft or trade, really need, in my personal order:
DT - Jalen Carter is my favorite guy this draft
S -Trade for Budda Baker or draft Brian Branch
LB - we just don't value the position so a guy that can come in and play OK/Good I guess will do
CB (developmentally) 2nd/3rd round pick
Edge - If somehow we can get Wilson or Anderson in the draft I'd lose my mind. Van Ness and guys like him don't excite me as much
OT/G -can't take Skoronski at 10 if he projects as a G or RT only with his short arms. Paris Johnson would be nice, but odds are we take a guy in the 2nd/3rd round.
ChiefD
Footballguy
For sure. Going to be fascinating as hell to see how this shakes out.
Insein
Footballguy
There's always some projection in it. We projected Carson to be great but injuries caught up to him and he didn't have the mental makeup to handle it. Jalen certainly has the mental part down but injuries very well could happen. Nothing is certain. But they had to pay the guy or let him turn into the Lamar situation. Eagles don't operate like that.
Lehigh98
Footballguy
Spoiler Alert: More
The Noid
Avoid me!
If what's out there so far about the contract details are correct, even with the raise Hurts is getting for this year, and what he's scheduled to get in the first year of the extension next year, we will still be paying him $18M less than NYG are paying Daniel Jones this year and next.
Nice to still have another year after this one (and 2 additional years of cap increases) before the big annual money kicks in for 2025.
Nice to still have another year after this one (and 2 additional years of cap increases) before the big annual money kicks in for 2025.
Terpman22
Footballguy
If we went with how the Giants paid Jones, at $2.65m per touchdown, we would expect Hurts to get a $92.5M per year deal.
That was probably always the case with Burrow, who has had more success, and is just a better player in general. Herbert should be more interesting as he hasn't won a playoff game, let alone gone to a Super Bowl, and unlike Hurts, also has the 5th year option if need be.
Terpman22
Footballguy
I noticed a funny thing about Javon Hargrave and Milton Williams: Both were 3rd round picks:
Hargrave
6'2/305
4.93 Forty, 29 bench reps
2 sacks first year, 2 sacks 2nd year
Milton Williams
6'3/290
4.67 Forty, 34 bench reps
2 sacks first year, 4 sacks 2nd year.
I think to a degree we are largely underrating the impact Milton Williams can have this season.
Hargrave
6'2/305
4.93 Forty, 29 bench reps
2 sacks first year, 2 sacks 2nd year
Milton Williams
6'3/290
4.67 Forty, 34 bench reps
2 sacks first year, 4 sacks 2nd year.
I think to a degree we are largely underrating the impact Milton Williams can have this season.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
The ONLY thing worrying me about the '23 Eagles (so far) is the Super Bowl hangover. I think its real, and not just for NFL. The Eagles need only to look across Pattison Ave. at the slow start the Phillies have gotten off to. If the Eagles start slow next season, everyone will point to Jalen's new contract and call him overrated.
Terpman22
Footballguy
I hear ya there. I just feel the team and culture is different. Guys on the roster realizing this is probably their last shot (Kelce/Graham/Cox) mixed w the collective leadership of guys like Hurts, Lane, Kelce/Graham and the "football junkies" on the team that literally do nothing but talk/live/breathe on playing football and improving their game (Hurts, Devonta) and an overall good mix of youth to invigorate the older heads. Not to mention the NFC just is bereft of any super teams and the closest teams in the conference either have questions at QB (yeah you SF) or their QB just lead the league in INTs. I'm not really worried at all about the hangover in all honesty.
rockaction
Footballguy
How are the "guarantees" structured? Are they roster bonuses like Mahomes's "guaranteed" money is?
Do we even know yet? That's the crux of this deal if you ask me. It's a graduated deal, so maybe they get out from under him if he sucks?
I think the Eagles have yet to comment on his contract. I could be wrong.
Do we even know yet? That's the crux of this deal if you ask me. It's a graduated deal, so maybe they get out from under him if he sucks?
I think the Eagles have yet to comment on his contract. I could be wrong.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
The SB hangover is secondary to losing both coordinators for me. Got a lot on their plates this season. Much different expectations for them.
rockaction
Footballguy
$110 million fully guaranteed at signing, per NFL Network.
Hat tip: menobrown.
Hat tip: menobrown.
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
The signing bonus is 23,294K and his first year salary is already posted as 4.2M. So with a 51M per year average and 110M guarantee at signing (179.3M total GTD), it looks to be technically backloaded after the first year. This based on some details posted on Sportrac.
Editing to add, his Cap hit for 2023 is under $5M, so it looks to me like Eagles have an out in case of a worst case scenario.
Editing to add, his Cap hit for 2023 is under $5M, so it looks to me like Eagles have an out in case of a worst case scenario.
Insein
Footballguy
People will say that anyway even if we don't start slow. If we win but don't score 30+ a game they'll say it. So who cares. As long as we win at the end, that's all that matters.
Terpman22
Footballguy
I agree. There will always be some naysayers "wait until that 1st place schedule kicks in/Different now that its not the easiest schedule in sports history huh/well, the Bucs are playing bums at QB this year, different story if Brady was back"
Just win baby. By 1 point/40 points, counts the same.
Now go get Budda!!
The Noid
Avoid me!
NFL Cap went up 8% for 2023 and is projected to go up 14% in 2024. Using that median of 11% as the projected increase for 2025-2028 seasons, and using just the $51M number as Hurts' cap hit each year (since we don't know the exact hits yet), this is what his salary will look like as a percent of the team's overall cap:
2024 - 20%
2025 - 18%
2026 - 16%
2027 - 14.5%
2028 - 13%
For perspective: If Rodgers is with GB in 2023, his salary will be 27% of their cap space. In 2024, Watson would be 25% of this "projected" cap for CLE, and Dak will be 23% for DAL. In 2025, Wilson (in his age 37 season) would be 20% of this "projected" cap for DEN.
Even if it's backloaded the 2027/2028 numbers still wouldn't even put him anywhere near 20% of the team's cap. The cost control the Eagles got by having him do the 4th and 5th year is a HUGE advantage. Not saying Hurts or his camp got duped, at all, but for those that were hoping he would do the Eagles a solid because he wants to win (while still getting a nice chunk of change), this is what that looks like.
I think at least 2 of the next 3 big QB contracts coming (Burrow, Herbert, Jackson) are going to be 3 or 4 year deals with a higher guaranteed portion, showing even more how much of a steal the Hurts contract is (assuming, of course, he plays at a level worthy of being considered a top QB.)
2024 - 20%
2025 - 18%
2026 - 16%
2027 - 14.5%
2028 - 13%
For perspective: If Rodgers is with GB in 2023, his salary will be 27% of their cap space. In 2024, Watson would be 25% of this "projected" cap for CLE, and Dak will be 23% for DAL. In 2025, Wilson (in his age 37 season) would be 20% of this "projected" cap for DEN.
Even if it's backloaded the 2027/2028 numbers still wouldn't even put him anywhere near 20% of the team's cap. The cost control the Eagles got by having him do the 4th and 5th year is a HUGE advantage. Not saying Hurts or his camp got duped, at all, but for those that were hoping he would do the Eagles a solid because he wants to win (while still getting a nice chunk of change), this is what that looks like.
I think at least 2 of the next 3 big QB contracts coming (Burrow, Herbert, Jackson) are going to be 3 or 4 year deals with a higher guaranteed portion, showing even more how much of a steal the Hurts contract is (assuming, of course, he plays at a level worthy of being considered a top QB.)
Ilov80s
Footballguy
What a win win on this deal
Hurts cap numbers
2023: $6.15 million
2024: $13.56 million
2025: $21.77 million
2026: $31.77 million
Hurts cap numbers
2023: $6.15 million
2024: $13.56 million
2025: $21.77 million
2026: $31.77 million
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Those cap hits are outright insanity. I want to see the last two years and a full breakdown of the contract structure but it’s just incredible that you sign a guy for 5/$255M and only have cap hits totaling less than $70M in the first three years of the extension. And that’s not even counting the tiny hit for the upcoming season.
Absurd.
Absurd.
eighsse2
Footballguy
So, I don't understand. Does this deal hit the cap down the road or does only $73M out of $255M hit the cap? I always assumed every dollar you pay a player is on the cap one year or another. Is that not how it works?
The Noid
Avoid me!
Right, without knowing his salary those last 2 years (and any dummy years that spread out the signing bonus even further), we don't know the full picture.
The Noid
Avoid me!
Yes, you eventually have to pay the piper at some point if the player plays out all the years. But, if there's roster bonuses that don't kick in until certain years, there's no "cap hit" until those triggers occur. I would guess since Schefter only tweeted out the first 3 year of the 5 year extensions, those are the only "guaranteed" years. The last 2 may essentially be guaranteed but not officially for cap purposes, as of yet. The Mahomes deal had a lot of that.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Got it, thanks for the explanation!
The Noid
Avoid me!
Even without knowing yet the cap hits in the 4th and 5th years (and maybe beyond with void years that help spread the signing bonus out), just HAVING those years to push a bunch of the spend into when the cap will be about $150-$180M more than it is in 2023 is a major win.
eighsse2
Footballguy
True. Kind of like using an IRA to defer taxes until the bracket thresholds are higher.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
No idea but if the Eagles want to load up to win big the next 4 years, they are in great freaking shape
The Noid
Avoid me!
Have to imagine there is a ton of bonus structuring going on:
- Signing bonus: paid upfront, but spread out over life of contract, including void years
- Option bonuses: also spread out but don't "kick in" until later years when the team goes through the formality of "picking up" the option to keep paying the player
- Roster bonuses: these get paid in full for each year they get triggered, but aren't technically guaranteed (but for a franchise QB they are, for all intents and purposes)
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Yeah I’m not going to spend much time trying to figure it all out in advance. Content to just wait for the numbers but man, that looks like an incredible deal for Philly and if that guaranteed $$ is legit then for Hurts, too.
rockaction
Footballguy
I'll bet a lot of that $70 million from the equation of $180 million - $70 million = $110 million are roster bonuses counting as "guaranteed." That's $70 million floating out there because $110 million is guaranteed at signing, and if I understand what that means, it means the $110 is fully guaranteed, making the roster or not.
And $110M guaranteed at signing is no joke for Hurts and the Eagles look set up for the next few years. Good work and good job by them. They've got the perfect situation. A top twelve quarterback at a reasonable cost.
He's not Burrow, Mahomes, or Herbert, even, but he's plenty good enough to win a Super Bowl and be a net positive in the endeavor at his position.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Well, he’s a much different QB than those 3 of course. He’s in the Allen, Lamar phylum and think together we just named the top 6 QBs in real life (with apologies to Lawrence but as of now he’s kind of in his own tier at 7 for me).
All of those guys deserve their $$ and can lead their teams to Super Bowl wins IMO. True franchise QBs each of them. “Top 12” sounds like a pretty big disservice to Hurts to me.
rockaction
Footballguy
Not really. There are six clearly better than him. Top ten maybe. But top twelve is a quickly thought-about sentiment that sounds approximate to me rather than a disservice. If you asked me if I thought Dak and Rodgers were better than Hurts, I'd say yes. Top twelve is fine. I stand by that.
Deamon
Footballguy
What 11 QBs do you put that you think are possibly better than him?
rockaction
Footballguy
J. Herbert
J. Allen
P. Mahomes
J. Burrow
D. Prescott
A. Rodgers
L. Jackson
T. Lawrence
D. Watson
K. Cousins
K. Murray
Don't forget, the top twelve comment is off of the top of my head. I'm not looking for you to bite my ankles all night about it.
By the way, so many mocks have Bijan to Dallas. Enjoy it.
J. Allen
P. Mahomes
J. Burrow
D. Prescott
A. Rodgers
L. Jackson
T. Lawrence
D. Watson
K. Cousins
K. Murray
Don't forget, the top twelve comment is off of the top of my head. I'm not looking for you to bite my ankles all night about it.
By the way, so many mocks have Bijan to Dallas. Enjoy it.
Deamon
Footballguy
He's not going to Dallas, but not sure what the relevance of that is here when we are discussing Hurts? Or are you just trying to take a little shot when all I did was ask what 11 QBs are better. Cool.
If you'd rather Dak/Murray/Cousins/Watson/Lawrence on your team over Hurts then I guess that's on you but you'd be hard pressed to find many people who would. Almost every analyst out there has him as a top 5 QB.
I think he might drop off a bit next year, and I don't boast like he's the next Brady, but I do have him in the Herbert/Rodgers/Jackson 4-6 range. No teams even want Lamar for 2 1sts... I'm pretty sure Hurts could fetch 2 1sts on the market right now.
rockaction
Footballguy
Not really. He just signed his contract and those guys' salaries rival his or surpass it, which is all you need to know. The NFL talks in dollars, and Hurts's contract is team-friendly. Watson's is for way more than his. Prescott's will be. Book it. Murray is close if not ahead. Lawrence would fetch way more than Hurts. Right now. Immediately.
There's no way this guy is in the Herbert/Rodgers/Jackson realm. Two are MVPs of the league. The other very well could be. Hurts never will be.
Deamon
Footballguy
lol saying a guy who finished 2nd in MVP voting "NEVER WILL BE" might be the stup.... I won't even say it. But I think you know how smart that statement is.
rockaction
Footballguy
Nowhere to go but down.
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