***2024 Draft Talk and Analysis - A Trade Already!*** (1 Viewer)

[ChiefD]

A trade:

The Minnesota Vikings are acquiring a second first-round pick for April’s NFL Draft, landing No. 23 from the Houston Texans in a trade Friday, league sources said.

The Vikings will send the Texans a 2024 second-rounder (No. 42), a sixth-rounder (No. 188) and a 2025 second-round pick. Houston is sending pack No. 23 and a seventh (No. 232).

From The Athletic

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[Boston]

Interesting deal…Minny could be adding this #1 to either use it to move up or maybe hoping they can grab a QB like Nix or Penix at #23…Caserio with a BB -type of deal…at least it wasn’t while they were on the clock which was always a deflator.

 

[IHEARTFF]

seems qb driven for sure and texans get decent value

 

[menobrown]

They no doubt got ammo to move TEN out of 7 if a QB is available, but that will likely depend on NYG going WR.

Feel like they’d prefer to jump NYG into 4 or 5. Would AZ or LAC take 11/23 to move back and cost themselves MHJ or the second WR? I think so.

 

[IHEARTFF]

if Minn and Chi hit on qbs here, the nfc north becomes quite a beast

 

[skol asylum]

Interesting deal…Minny could be adding this #1 to either use it to move up or maybe hoping they can grab a QB like Nix or Penix at #23…Caerio with a BB -type of deal…at least it wasn’t while they were on the clock which was always a deflator.

Just saw and had the same thoughts

 

[Stoneworker]

In an interview with CBS Sports' Ryan Wilson...JJ McCarthy was asked the top three receivers he would want to throw to in the NFL.

Without hesitating McCarthy named Justin Jefferson as his top choice

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Targeting Chargers pick at 5 I reckon.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Without hesitating McCarthy named Justin Jefferson as his top choice

Not exactly some thrilling insight is it? He's the best receiver in the league. That's the answer every QB would give.

 

[IHEARTFF]

They no doubt got ammo to move TEN out of 7 if a QB is available, but that will likely depend on NYG going WR.

Feel like they’d prefer to jump NYG into 4 or 5. Would AZ or LAC take 11/23 to move back and cost themselves MHJ or the second WR? I think so.

they probably would but both really need WR

 

[massraider]

Without hesitating McCarthy named Justin Jefferson as his top choice

Not exactly some thrilling insight is it? He's the best receiver in the league. That's the answer every QB would give.

He also named Devante Adams and then Smith-Njigba.

JJ McCarthy seems to have a vague idea which teams are looking at QB.

Not mentioned: Courtland Sutton.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Without hesitating McCarthy named Justin Jefferson as his top choice

Not exactly some thrilling insight is it? He's the best receiver in the league. That's the answer every QB would give.

Plus he probably wants a guy named J. J.

 

[Stoneworker]

JJ McCarthy seems to have a vague idea which teams are looking at QB.

Not mentioned: Courtland Sutton.

Do you think JJ would fall that far or are you suggesting a trade up? Not really draft capital for that I wouldn't think

 

[skol asylum]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

 

[massraider]

JJ McCarthy seems to have a vague idea which teams are looking at QB.

Not mentioned: Courtland Sutton.

Do you think JJ would fall that far or are you suggesting a trade up? Not really draft capital for that I wouldn't think

I think both are possible, if unlikely

 

[menobrown]

They no doubt got ammo to move TEN out of 7 if a QB is available, but that will likely depend on NYG going WR.

Feel like they’d prefer to jump NYG into 4 or 5. Would AZ or LAC take 11/23 to move back and cost themselves MHJ or the second WR? I think so.

they probably would but both really need WR

They do and I’m sure will be a consideration but both teams have some holes to fill, especially AZ, plenty of good WR’s to draft.

Also with buzz that 4 QB’s will go in top 6 that will leave likely Nabers or Odunze at 7. Perhaps one of them would move back up in that case. I think those WR’s are to good to fall much further but teams currently picking 7, 8 and 9 have all made significant WR additions already so if TEN fell in love with a particular OT and refused to move they’d be able to pursue moving into 8 or 9.

 

[BeTheMatch]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You're not getting Maye or Williams at 3. I don't think anyone else is worth it. Vikings are screwed for another decade.

 

[BeTheMatch]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You're not getting Maye or Williams at 3. I don't think anyone else is worth it. Vikings are screwed for another decade.

But, hey, at least they still have Harry Smith!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You're not getting Maye or Williams at 3. I don't think anyone else is worth it. Vikings are screwed for another decade.

Bears get Justin Jefferson + 11 + 23 for 1.01

*just spitballing

 

[skol asylum]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You're not getting Maye or Williams at 3. I don't think anyone else is worth it. Vikings are screwed for another decade.

IDK. Seems like Maye has some negative buzz and may be dropping while McCarthy has the opposite trajectory. And Daniels is that mobile weapon teams seem to love lately. Caleb #1 but #2 is still a mystery imo.

 

[skol asylum]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You're not getting Maye or Williams at 3. I don't think anyone else is worth it. Vikings are screwed for another decade.

Bears get Justin Jefferson + 11 + 23 for 1.01

*just spitballing

No

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You're not getting Maye or Williams at 3. I don't think anyone else is worth it. Vikings are screwed for another decade.

Bears get Justin Jefferson + 11 + 23 for 1.01

*just spitballing

No

Hey, at least I’m contributing ideas!

The Vikings should be thanking me.

 

[skol asylum]

Only way I entertain moving JJ is if I somehow end up with BOTH a top 4 QB and Marvin Harrison Jr in this draft. Sets up long term success with huge cap room to build a monster roster. I realize that is practically impossible.

 

[skol asylum]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You're not getting Maye or Williams at 3. I don't think anyone else is worth it. Vikings are screwed for another decade.

Bears get Justin Jefferson + 11 + 23 for 1.01

*just spitballing

No

Hey, at least I’m contributing ideas!

The Vikings should be thanking me.

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You're not getting Maye or Williams at 3. I don't think anyone else is worth it. Vikings are screwed for another decade.

Bears get Justin Jefferson + 11 + 23 for 1.01

*just spitballing

No

Hey, at least I’m contributing ideas!

The Vikings should be thanking me.

Ha

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

#2 is still a mystery imo

I'm convinced it's Daniels at 2.

Mariota in at Washington as the obvious backup to a player who is virtually identical with regards to skillset is telling us something I feel.

If Daniels is the starter, it makes sense to have someone very similar to him as the backup.

 

[skol asylum]

#2 is still a mystery imo

I'm convinced it's Daniels at 2.

Mariota in at Washington as the obvious backup to a player who is virtually identical with regards to skillset is telling us something I feel.

If Daniels is the starter, it makes sense to have someone very similar to him as the backup.

Could be. So NE takes Maye or trades him to MN. If they take him AZ takes Marvin Harrison Jr or trades the pick to MN and they go McCarthy. If they take the WR does Harbaugh take his college QB at #5 and trade Herbert to MN?

 

[BeTheMatch]

#2 is still a mystery imo

I'm convinced it's Daniels at 2.

Mariota in at Washington as the obvious backup to a player who is virtually identical with regards to skillset is telling us something I feel.

If Daniels is the starter, it makes sense to have someone very similar to him as the backup.

That's the strongest criticism I've heard yet of Daniels

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You're not getting Maye or Williams at 3. I don't think anyone else is worth it. Vikings are screwed for another decade.

Bears get Justin Jefferson + 11 + 23 for 1.01

*just spitballing

No

Hey, at least I’m contributing ideas!

The Vikings should be thanking me.

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You're not getting Maye or Williams at 3. I don't think anyone else is worth it. Vikings are screwed for another decade.

Bears get Justin Jefferson + 11 + 23 for 1.01

*just spitballing

No

Hey, at least I’m contributing ideas!

The Vikings should be thanking me.

Ha

You have to admit it would make for some exciting board discussion.

 

[skol asylum]

I think MN would rather the cap savings of a rookie for a few years vs paying a Herbert.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I think MN would rather the cap savings of a rookie for a few years vs paying a Herbert.

I'd rather pay Herbert than Jefferson.

Teams like MN have to be dreaming about pulling off the magic trick Houston performed last year. With two firsts and Jefferson on the table, it's a possibility.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

The idea of Chargers trading Herbert seems wildly unlikely

 

[Crippler]

I think MN would rather the cap savings of a rookie for a few years vs paying a Herbert.

How much would Herbert cost. It is very prohibitive for Chargers to trade Herbert after signing huge contract. Ithough5 this idea in beginning but the financial repercussions don’t work

 

[skol asylum]

I think MN would rather the cap savings of a rookie for a few years vs paying a Herbert.

I'd rather pay Herbert than Jefferson.

Teams like MN have to be dreaming about pulling off the magic trick Houston performed last year. With two firsts and Jefferson on the table, it's a possibility.

Yeah good point.

 

[skol asylum]

All I know is as a Vikings fan I'm way more excited for this draft then I have been in a while. Please don't screw it up Kwesi.

 

[Grahamburn]

The idea of Chargers trading Herbert seems wildly unlikely

The $130M dead cap hit that would incur if he were traded agrees with you. They aren't trading Herbert.

 

[Stoneworker]

The idea of Chargers trading Herbert seems wildly unlikely

Now there's some thrilling insight

 

[beef]

Seems cheap for #23.

 

[Loipz]

#2 is still a mystery imo

I'm convinced it's Daniels at 2.

Mariota in at Washington as the obvious backup to a player who is virtually identical with regards to skillset is telling us something I feel.

If Daniels is the starter, it makes sense to have someone very similar to him as the backup.

What about Flaaco backing up Anthony Richardson?

 

[menobrown]

Seems cheap for #23.

IMO this is the best trade value chart going: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

If you don't count the future second they are off 265 points which lines up exactly with the first pick of the third round. I know the old Parcells chart said future picks are reduced a round in value but all in all seems fair, unless Vikings exceed expectations and the pick is a late two next year.

Also per this chart those picks will get you to 4, will need a little more to get to 3.

 

[menobrown]

Mariota in at Washington as the obvious backup to a player who is virtually identical with regards to skillset is telling us something I feel.

Maybe but I felt like it had to do more with Brian Johnston coming over from Philly as the new passing game coordinator and wanting familiarity, possibly to help tutor the new rookie.

Of course Kingsbury is the actual OC so I can only go with a maybe but jettisoning Howell for sorry Mariota had me thinking that.

 

[Buckna]

Interestinly, Herbert is due a $50MM option bonus in 7 days, Chargers would have to trade him very soon but it is doable. They would only take a $13MM dead money hit and actually save $6MM on the cap. After the bonus is paid you add that $50MM on top as a dead money hit which seems hard to imagine they would pay him, trade him and take the hit right away.

But that's a lot of if's and but's and no guarantee the QB they would want would be at #5.

 

[joey]

 

[Terpman22]

I think MN would rather the cap savings of a rookie for a few years vs paying a Herbert.

I keep seeing this "Herbert might get traded" and I just have to interject with the fact that it would be a $129M dead cap hit if the Chargers for whatever reason tried to do this.

Justin Herbert Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

Justin Herbert contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history

overthecap.com

 

[menobrown]

Folks, other then the cap issues Herbert was one of the reasons that Harbaugh took the job. Trade ideas are fun to think and talk about, but this is like the JJ to Bengals fiction stuff, we got to do better if we want to have somewhat realistic talks around here.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Now there's some thrilling insight

Someone mentioned it as a possibility further up.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Miami-21
Houston-23...traded already to Minnesota
Tampa Bay-26

These were the hot targets for folks wanting to to trade up from the higher 2nd Rd into the lower 1st
Miami could possibly start making calls and sing this trade as a floor for the No 21 overall pick, someone maybe wants to jump in front of Minnesota

-Also very possibel Viking package 11 and 23 now to move up a little more. They won't get Williams or Maye, but the rest of the QB field is open for the taking.
I don't see New England taking a QB No 3 although they need one, but they won't just go No 3-QB off the board, also don't like them going WR but they could do that and still grab QB 2nd

 

[Boston]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

If the Pats make that deal there will be a fan mutiny…unless it is a small trade down the expectation is if they pass on a potential franchise QB they better be getting a future #1 so they will be in a position to draft one next year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Seems cheap for #23.

That was my initial thought...but the Texans adding picks seems like a good thing for a young team, they could also use the extra picks to possibly make trades to fill in the holes.
They have a 24-month window with CJ Stroud before they will HAVE to extend him between Years 3 and 4 the way Stroud is playing.

 

[Buckna]

I think MN would rather the cap savings of a rookie for a few years vs paying a Herbert.

I keep seeing this "Herbert might get traded" and I just have to interject with the fact that it would be a $129M dead cap hit if the Chargers for whatever reason tried to do this.

Justin Herbert Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

Justin Herbert contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history

overthecap.com

The $129MM is only if he is outright cut. His contract structure is actually pretty flexible for the next week. He has a $50MM guaranteed Option bonus (pro-rated over the next 5 years) due this March 22nd and another $45MM guaranteed Option bonus (prorated over 5 years) due in March '25. If he were to be traded before March 22nd, LAC would only be on the hook for the remaining ~$12MM proration of his signing bonus from last year. His guaranteed salary and Options all would go to the acquiring team.

I am not saying it will happen (I think they'd be fools to trade him and likely won't trade him) but it actually is logistically feasible for a few more days.

 

[skol asylum]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

If the Pats make that deal there will be a fan mutiny…unless it is a small trade down the expectation is if they pass on a potential franchise QB they better be getting a future #1 so they will be in a position to draft one next year.

But they would have 11,23, and 34 to add 3 really good players and potentially a QB still at 23 or 34. And presumably they will be drafting high again next year to get that QB. Bring Jimmy G back as a bridge?