***2024 Draft Talk and Analysis - A Trade Already!*** (1 Viewer)

[skol asylum]

I forgot NE picked up Brissett. He's serviceable for a year.

 

[Boston]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

If the Pats make that deal there will be a fan mutiny…unless it is a small trade down the expectation is if they pass on a potential franchise QB they better be getting a future #1 so they will be in a position to draft one next year.

But they would have 11,23, and 34 to add 3 really good players and potentially a QB still at 23 or 34. And presumably they will be drafting high again next year to get that QB. Bring Jimmy G back as a bridge?

Zero interest in that deal…they not only lose out on a potential franchise QB (or the other top-tier talent) but they don’t acquire any 2025 capital which would give them more draft flexibility next year if they are still chasing a QB…if the Pats deal that #3 pick so another team can draft a QB they need to receive a sweetheart deal.

 

[menobrown]

I think MN would rather the cap savings of a rookie for a few years vs paying a Herbert.

I keep seeing this "Herbert might get traded" and I just have to interject with the fact that it would be a $129M dead cap hit if the Chargers for whatever reason tried to do this.

Justin Herbert Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

Justin Herbert contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history

overthecap.com

The $129MM is only if he is outright cut. His contract structure is actually pretty flexible for the next week. He has a $50MM guaranteed Option bonus (pro-rated over the next 5 years) due this March 22nd and another $45MM guaranteed Option bonus (prorated over 5 years) due in March '25. If he were to be traded before March 22nd, LAC would only be on the hook for the remaining ~$12MM proration of his signing bonus from last year. His guaranteed salary and Options all would go to the acquiring team.

I am not saying it will happen (I think they'd be fools to trade him and likely won't trade him) but it actually is logistically feasible for a few more days.

You make a sound argument on the financials but let me ask you a question that's been bugging me for a few days.

Are you sure about how the option bonus works?

I ask because I feel like have a really good handle on how the contracts work for cap purposes but when I look at OTC and Spotrac, and specifically see their dead cap hit projections if a player with an option bonus is cut or trade, it leaves me wondering what I don't know.

Specifically my math is the same as yours, but are both wildly off on those sites dead cap hit projections as both of those sites are accelerating the option bonus money regardless of if the player is cut or traded. Someone is wrong, us or them, and I'm a little uneasy thinking it's them.

What got me thinking this the other day was looking at Diggs contract. Bills had a ton of cap issues but was extremely telling they did not touch his contract to create cap space. That tells me at minimum they are ready to move on after this season. But then I looked to see if they could move on now and noticed similar sitaution as Herbert in that both sites are indicating the option bonus would acclerate if he was cut or traded. Not quit the difference that is in Herberts contract but it's a difference between an $18m dead cap hit and getting actual savings on the cap it vs a $31m dead cap hit and actually losing money on the cap. In other words, I was examining the possiblity of them moving on now and not next year, if it was feasible financially.


Long story short, those sites are accelerating the option bonus, which I never understood but no offense I just think if someone is missing something and wrong it's probably us and not them but would sure like clarification.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Seems cheap for #23.

IMO this is the best trade value chart going: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

If you don't count the future second they are off 265 points which lines up exactly with the first pick of the third round. I know the old Parcells chart said future picks are reduced a round in value but all in all seems fair, unless Vikings exceed expectations and the pick is a late two next year.

Also per this chart those picks will get you to 4, will need a little more to get to 3.

I remember Brad Holmes said last year “Which chart? Because across the league there’s no consensus, there are at least 4 or 5 being used that I’m aware of, so that discussion becomes part of getting a deal done.”

 

[SayWhat?]

All I know is as a Vikings fan I'm way more excited for this draft then I have been in a while. Please don't screw it up Kwesi.

Exactly this. I’m so GD sick of the Vikings trading down, trading down, and trading down to acquire additional 4th-7th round picks that I could punch a wall. Move up when you can, and add some blue chip prospects. Love this trade.

 

[menobrown]

Seems cheap for #23.

IMO this is the best trade value chart going: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

If you don't count the future second they are off 265 points which lines up exactly with the first pick of the third round. I know the old Parcells chart said future picks are reduced a round in value but all in all seems fair, unless Vikings exceed expectations and the pick is a late two next year.

Also per this chart those picks will get you to 4, will need a little more to get to 3.

I remember Brad Holmes said last year “Which chart? Because across the league there’s no consensus, there are at least 4 or 5 being used that I’m aware of, so that discussion becomes part of getting a deal done.”

I'd bet he has a chart because while not a consensus it's a guide.

There are some woefully outdated charts that exist and I've been looking at this persons for the last few years and find it excellent and fwiw when you see most media members quoting trade value charts, which many were doing today, this is the one they are using.

But like I said, I found this to be the "best" trade value chart going, not the "ONE".

 

[Buckna]

I think MN would rather the cap savings of a rookie for a few years vs paying a Herbert.

I keep seeing this "Herbert might get traded" and I just have to interject with the fact that it would be a $129M dead cap hit if the Chargers for whatever reason tried to do this.

Justin Herbert Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

Justin Herbert contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history

overthecap.com

The $129MM is only if he is outright cut. His contract structure is actually pretty flexible for the next week. He has a $50MM guaranteed Option bonus (pro-rated over the next 5 years) due this March 22nd and another $45MM guaranteed Option bonus (prorated over 5 years) due in March '25. If he were to be traded before March 22nd, LAC would only be on the hook for the remaining ~$12MM proration of his signing bonus from last year. His guaranteed salary and Options all would go to the acquiring team.

I am not saying it will happen (I think they'd be fools to trade him and likely won't trade him) but it actually is logistically feasible for a few more days.

You make a sound argument on the financials but let me ask you a question that's been bugging me for a few days.

Are you sure about how the option bonus works?

I ask because I feel like have a really good handle on how the contracts work for cap purposes but when I look at OTC and Spotrac, and specifically see their dead cap hit projections if a player with an option bonus is cut or trade, it leaves me wondering what I don't know.

Specifically my math is the same as yours, but are both wildly off on those sites dead cap hit projections as both of those sites are accelerating the option bonus money regardless of if the player is cut or traded. Someone is wrong, us or them, and I'm a little uneasy thinking it's them.

What got me thinking this the other day was looking at Diggs contract. Bills had a ton of cap issues but was extremely telling they did not touch his contract to create cap space. That tells me at minimum they are ready to move on after this season. But then I looked to see if they could move on now and noticed similar sitaution as Herbert in that both sites are indicating the option bonus would acclerate if he was cut or traded. Not quit the difference that is in Herberts contract but it's a difference between an $18m dead cap hit and getting actual savings on the cap it vs a $31m dead cap hit and actually losing money on the cap. In other words, I was examining the possiblity of them moving on now and not next year, if it was feasible financially.


Long story short, those sites are accelerating the option bonus, which I never understood but no offense I just think if someone is missing something and wrong it's probably us and not them but would sure like clarification.

I don't work for any teams, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night... I don't have a good answer for you since I am no capologist for an actual team or anything. Just an obsessed fan with too much time on a Friday. If I change the drop down to a post-june trade and it shows the $13MM dead money and $6 MM savings. I just don't think the websites are that robust for the intricacy of trades and default to cuts even though they are great websites.

Although I did miss something that I just noticed that makes all this supposition probably moot, Herbert has a No Trade Clause, so he'd have to be okay with any destination so this might have all been for nothing to debate!

Edit: Some edits for bad typo's lol

 

[skol asylum]

I don't watch college ball so I rely on so called experts on their takes. Thor here is really selling McCarthy as the best choice for the Vikings it seems (outside of Caleb).

- YouTube

Auf YouTube findest du die angesagtesten Videos und Tracks. Außerdem kannst du eigene Inhalte hochladen und mit Freunden oder gleich der ganzen Welt teilen.

www.youtube.com

 

[skol asylum]

Not sure if this is posted yet. Are they moving up to get a QB?

The Minnesota Vikings acquired the Houston Texans' first-round draft pick Friday morning in a trade that could be a precursor to moving further up in the round to select a quarterback to replace departed Kirk Cousins.

In the deal, the Vikings acquired the Texans' No. 23 pick along with a seventh-round pick (No. 232 overall). The Texans received the Vikings' second-round pick (No. 42), their sixth-round pick (No. 188) and their second-round pick in 2025.

The deal preserved the Vikings' own first-round pick, No. 11, which they could in theory package with the No. 23 pick to move up in the round.

That's the prevailing theory. Also gives them options if some other team beats them to it, taking a solid defender at 11 and looking at 23 or lower for someone like Penix I guess. The preference would be to move up.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Without hesitating McCarthy named Justin Jefferson as his top choice

Not exactly some thrilling insight is it? He's the best receiver in the league. That's the answer every QB would give.

Plus he probably wants a guy named J. J.

Bring in arcega whiteside

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Is 11 and 23 enough to get to 5? Probably not. What else do they need to throw in?

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Not sure if this is posted yet. Are they moving up to get a QB?

The Minnesota Vikings acquired the Houston Texans' first-round draft pick Friday morning in a trade that could be a precursor to moving further up in the round to select a quarterback to replace departed Kirk Cousins.

In the deal, the Vikings acquired the Texans' No. 23 pick along with a seventh-round pick (No. 232 overall). The Texans received the Vikings' second-round pick (No. 42), their sixth-round pick (No. 188) and their second-round pick in 2025.

The deal preserved the Vikings' own first-round pick, No. 11, which they could in theory package with the No. 23 pick to move up in the round.

No not posted or discussed at all…

 

[Long Ball Larry]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You really think that’s enough? I doubt it. In 2019, the jets sent number 6, 2 seconds and a second in the following year to get to number 3.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2021/story/_/id/31173355/all-29-s-nfl-teams-traded-draft-quarterback

How did the chargers trade more to get leaf at 2 than they got back to give the number 1 pick to the falcons for Vick?!?!

 

[JohnnyU]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You really think that’s enough? I doubt it. In 2019, the jets sent number 6, 2 seconds and a second in the following year to get to number 3.

What did that net them?

 

[Zow]

All I know is as a Vikings fan I'm way more excited for this draft then I have been in a while. Please don't screw it up Kwesi.

I'm nervous.

I'd really, really rather wait and see if McCarthy is there at 1.11 and take him and grab a blue chip piece at 1.23 than overpay for an early first.

 

[Zow]

Miami-21
Houston-23...traded already to Minnesota
Tampa Bay-26

These were the hot targets for folks wanting to to trade up from the higher 2nd Rd into the lower 1st
Miami could possibly start making calls and sing this trade as a floor for the No 21 overall pick, someone maybe wants to jump in front of Minnesota

-Also very possibel Viking package 11 and 23 now to move up a little more. They won't get Williams or Maye, but the rest of the QB field is open for the taking.
I don't see New England taking a QB No 3 although they need one, but they won't just go No 3-QB off the board, also don't like them going WR but they could do that and still grab QB 2nd

You don't? Why not?

 

[Zow]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2021/story/_/id/31173355/all-29-s-nfl-teams-traded-draft-quarterback

How did the chargers trade more to get leaf at 2 than they got back to give the number 1 pick to the falcons for Vick?!?!

Leaf was very highly coveted coming out of college. I distinctly remember that there was a debate as to whether he was better than Manning.

 

[Zow]

Not sure if this is posted yet. Are they moving up to get a QB?

The Minnesota Vikings acquired the Houston Texans' first-round draft pick Friday morning in a trade that could be a precursor to moving further up in the round to select a quarterback to replace departed Kirk Cousins.

In the deal, the Vikings acquired the Texans' No. 23 pick along with a seventh-round pick (No. 232 overall). The Texans received the Vikings' second-round pick (No. 42), their sixth-round pick (No. 188) and their second-round pick in 2025.

The deal preserved the Vikings' own first-round pick, No. 11, which they could in theory package with the No. 23 pick to move up in the round.

That's the prevailing theory. Also gives them options if some other team beats them to it, taking a solid defender at 11 and looking at 23 or lower for someone like Penix I guess. The preference would be to move up.

I wouldn't hate this, but honestly I think Penix is comparable to Howell and I'll go away from the draft thinking we should have gone after Howell (who was traded for peanuts).

 

[Boston]

Miami-21
Houston-23...traded already to Minnesota
Tampa Bay-26

These were the hot targets for folks wanting to to trade up from the higher 2nd Rd into the lower 1st
Miami could possibly start making calls and sing this trade as a floor for the No 21 overall pick, someone maybe wants to jump in front of Minnesota

-Also very possibel Viking package 11 and 23 now to move up a little more. They won't get Williams or Maye, but the rest of the QB field is open for the taking.
I don't see New England taking a QB No 3 although they need one, but they won't just go No 3-QB off the board, also don't like them going WR but they could do that and still grab QB 2nd

You don't? Why not?

Anything is possible (especially if they get a monster offer) but all signs this offseason have pointed to the Pats drafting a QB at #3.

 

[skol asylum]

Not sure if this is posted yet. Are they moving up to get a QB?

The Minnesota Vikings acquired the Houston Texans' first-round draft pick Friday morning in a trade that could be a precursor to moving further up in the round to select a quarterback to replace departed Kirk Cousins.

In the deal, the Vikings acquired the Texans' No. 23 pick along with a seventh-round pick (No. 232 overall). The Texans received the Vikings' second-round pick (No. 42), their sixth-round pick (No. 188) and their second-round pick in 2025.

The deal preserved the Vikings' own first-round pick, No. 11, which they could in theory package with the No. 23 pick to move up in the round.

That's the prevailing theory. Also gives them options if some other team beats them to it, taking a solid defender at 11 and looking at 23 or lower for someone like Penix I guess. The preference would be to move up.

I wouldn't hate this, but honestly I think Penix is comparable to Howell and I'll go away from the draft thinking we should have gone after Howell (who was traded for peanuts).

Yeah I wish Howell was the target rather than Darnold. There's some thought I guess though that Darnold could be a reclamation project because he was in a couple of bad situations and started to turn things around learning from Shanny. Either way though, these are just placeholder bridge guys most likely. 2024 will probably lead to a high pick in 2025 which is why hopefully the Vikes don't need to trade away that 1st rounder in a move up deal.

 

[Zow]

Miami-21
Houston-23...traded already to Minnesota
Tampa Bay-26

These were the hot targets for folks wanting to to trade up from the higher 2nd Rd into the lower 1st
Miami could possibly start making calls and sing this trade as a floor for the No 21 overall pick, someone maybe wants to jump in front of Minnesota

-Also very possibel Viking package 11 and 23 now to move up a little more. They won't get Williams or Maye, but the rest of the QB field is open for the taking.
I don't see New England taking a QB No 3 although they need one, but they won't just go No 3-QB off the board, also don't like them going WR but they could do that and still grab QB 2nd

You don't? Why not?

Anything is possible (especially if they get a monster offer) but all signs this offseason have pointed to the Pats drafting a QB at #3.

Right, that's been my impression, too.

I mean there's a clear top 3 QB tier in this draft, Pats draft third, I can't see them not taking who is left unless they really dislike a guy. Heck, if they really like McCarthy the safest play then is to just grab him at 1.3.

Hence my question to MOP because I genuinely can't understand why he doesn't see the Pats going QB.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You really think that’s enough? I doubt it. In 2019, the jets sent number 6, 2 seconds and a second in the following year to get to number 3.

What did that net them?

um, what? I literally just said it. This must be schtick…

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Not sure if this is posted yet. Are they moving up to get a QB?

The Minnesota Vikings acquired the Houston Texans' first-round draft pick Friday morning in a trade that could be a precursor to moving further up in the round to select a quarterback to replace departed Kirk Cousins.

In the deal, the Vikings acquired the Texans' No. 23 pick along with a seventh-round pick (No. 232 overall). The Texans received the Vikings' second-round pick (No. 42), their sixth-round pick (No. 188) and their second-round pick in 2025.

The deal preserved the Vikings' own first-round pick, No. 11, which they could in theory package with the No. 23 pick to move up in the round.

No not posted or discussed at all…

I saw where a poster laughed, so I assume your post was sarcasm. Sorry if this was discussed somewhere else. I missed it.

It was literally the original post of thread: it’s ok, Johnny, you’re a good guy

 

[Long Ball Larry]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2021/story/_/id/31173355/all-29-s-nfl-teams-traded-draft-quarterback

How did the chargers trade more to get leaf at 2 than they got back to give the number 1 pick to the falcons for Vick?!?!

Leaf was very highly coveted coming out of college. I distinctly remember that there was a debate as to whether he was better than Manning.

I think that’s true, though still kind of mind bottling.

 

[JohnnyU]

Not sure if this is posted yet. Are they moving up to get a QB?

The Minnesota Vikings acquired the Houston Texans' first-round draft pick Friday morning in a trade that could be a precursor to moving further up in the round to select a quarterback to replace departed Kirk Cousins.

In the deal, the Vikings acquired the Texans' No. 23 pick along with a seventh-round pick (No. 232 overall). The Texans received the Vikings' second-round pick (No. 42), their sixth-round pick (No. 188) and their second-round pick in 2025.

The deal preserved the Vikings' own first-round pick, No. 11, which they could in theory package with the No. 23 pick to move up in the round.

No not posted or discussed at all…

I saw where a poster laughed, so I assume your post was sarcasm. Sorry if this was discussed somewhere else. I missed it.

It was literally the original post of thread: it’s ok, Johnny, you’re a good guy

Oops, sorry about that. I deleted it. :embarrassing:

 

[JohnnyU]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You really think that’s enough? I doubt it. In 2019, the jets sent number 6, 2 seconds and a second in the following year to get to number 3.

What did that net them?

um, what? I literally just said it. This must be schtick…

No, not Schtick. Just wondering who they drafted at 3.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You really think that’s enough? I doubt it. In 2019, the jets sent number 6, 2 seconds and a second in the following year to get to number 3.

What did that net them?

um, what? I literally just said it. This must be schtick…

No, not Schtick. Just wondering who they drafted at 3.

Oh, that was for Sam darnold. :genius:

 

[Long Ball Larry]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You really think that’s enough? I doubt it. In 2019, the jets sent number 6, 2 seconds and a second in the following year to get to number 3.

What did that net them?

um, what? I literally just said it. This must be schtick…

No, not Schtick. Just wondering who they drafted at 3.

Oh, that was for Sam darnold. :genius:

The colts got:

Quentin nelson
Braden smith
Shaq leonard
Rock ya-sin

Chris Ballard should be arrested

 

[Hankmoody]

I think MN would rather the cap savings of a rookie for a few years vs paying a Herbert.

I keep seeing this "Herbert might get traded" and I just have to interject with the fact that it would be a $129M dead cap hit if the Chargers for whatever reason tried to do this.

Justin Herbert Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

Justin Herbert contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history

overthecap.com

No it wouldn't. Most of that "dead" money is in future guaranteed money - something the new team would inherit and pay out when it's due. The only dead cap Herbert would cost LAC is the amortization of any money already paid out, which is about $13M. If they trade him after the $50.6M Option Bonus is paid, they would eat that too (since it was paid) and if not, the new team that pays it would just take the amortization per the normal schedule.

I ask because I feel like have a really good handle on how the contracts work for cap purposes but when I look at OTC and Spotrac, and specifically see their dead cap hit projections if a player with an option bonus is cut or trade, it leaves me wondering what I don't know.

Specifically my math is the same as yours, but are both wildly off on those sites dead cap hit projections as both of those sites are accelerating the option bonus money regardless of if the player is cut or traded. Someone is wrong, us or them, and I'm a little uneasy thinking it's them.

It's all about who paid/pays/must pay it. I think what Spotrac is representing here is the new team's dead cap liability.

 

[JohnnyU]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You really think that’s enough? I doubt it. In 2019, the jets sent number 6, 2 seconds and a second in the following year to get to number 3.

What did that net them?

um, what? I literally just said it. This must be schtick…

No, not Schtick. Just wondering who they drafted at 3.

Oh, that was for Sam darnold. :genius:

The colts got:

Quentin nelson
Braden smith
Shaq leonard
Rock ya-sin

Chris Ballard should be arrested

Pretty good, except only 2 remain.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You really think that’s enough? I doubt it. In 2019, the jets sent number 6, 2 seconds and a second in the following year to get to number 3.

What did that net them?

um, what? I literally just said it. This must be schtick…

No, not Schtick. Just wondering who they drafted at 3.

Oh, that was for Sam darnold. :genius:

The colts got:

Quentin nelson
Braden smith
Shaq leonard
Rock ya-sin

Chris Ballard should be arrested

Pretty good, except only 2 remain.

Sure, but that was 6 years ago! And Shaq Leonard still gave them a lot of production.

 

[JohnnyU]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

You really think that’s enough? I doubt it. In 2019, the jets sent number 6, 2 seconds and a second in the following year to get to number 3.

What did that net them?

um, what? I literally just said it. This must be schtick…

No, not Schtick. Just wondering who they drafted at 3.

Oh, that was for Sam darnold. :genius:

The colts got:

Quentin nelson
Braden smith
Shaq leonard
Rock ya-sin

Chris Ballard should be arrested

Pretty good, except only 2 remain.

Sure, but that was 6 years ago! And Shaq Leonard still gave them a lot of production.

True, but Rock ya-sin was garbage, except the name.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Miami-21
Houston-23...traded already to Minnesota
Tampa Bay-26

These were the hot targets for folks wanting to to trade up from the higher 2nd Rd into the lower 1st
Miami could possibly start making calls and sing this trade as a floor for the No 21 overall pick, someone maybe wants to jump in front of Minnesota

-Also very possibel Viking package 11 and 23 now to move up a little more. They won't get Williams or Maye, but the rest of the QB field is open for the taking.
I don't see New England taking a QB No 3 although they need one, but they won't just go No 3-QB off the board, also don't like them going WR but they could do that and still grab QB 2nd

You don't? Why not?

I guess it feels like if you're taking the No 3 at a position, the same position as 1 and 2...you're almost settling for what's left. Has it gone 1-2-3 at QB?
Last year it was 1-2-4...I guess they might. Still seems like the wrong move IMHO...but the Patriots taking a WR at No 3, it's kind of hilarious to even think about
So Daniels or McCarthy is now No 3 in the Draft, what are we saying here?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Miami-21
Houston-23...traded already to Minnesota
Tampa Bay-26

These were the hot targets for folks wanting to to trade up from the higher 2nd Rd into the lower 1st
Miami could possibly start making calls and sing this trade as a floor for the No 21 overall pick, someone maybe wants to jump in front of Minnesota

-Also very possibel Viking package 11 and 23 now to move up a little more. They won't get Williams or Maye, but the rest of the QB field is open for the taking.
I don't see New England taking a QB No 3 although they need one, but they won't just go No 3-QB off the board, also don't like them going WR but they could do that and still grab QB 2nd

You don't? Why not?

Anything is possible (especially if they get a monster offer) but all signs this offseason have pointed to the Pats drafting a QB at #3.

Right, that's been my impression, too.

I mean there's a clear top 3 QB tier in this draft, Pats draft third, I can't see them not taking who is left unless they really dislike a guy. Heck, if they really like McCarthy the safest play then is to just grab him at 1.3.

Hence my question to MOP because I genuinely can't understand why he doesn't see the Pats going QB.

"They can't all be good, 1 thru 6 at Quarterback in this year's Draft"

-MoP

 

[Donnybrook]

I have hard time seeing any of the top 3 teams trading out. You don't purge your roster of all QB competition and not take a QB.

I could see Arizona trading out but only if they address WR in free agency. That means Tee Higgins or Brandon Aiyuck. San Francisco may not be interested of trading him in the division. The draft is deep at wide receiver so they could address it more than once.

 

[Donnybrook]

@SavageSports_

Patriots likely to pick the franchise QB at 3 and not trade down to the Vikings.

Per: @MoveTheSticks

“Drake Maye still in play at 2”

“New England is stuck”

“Everything I’ve heard is New England is gonna take the guy of the future there at 3”

This description of a New England stuck on QB reminds me of the Indy last year. If AR didn't fall to them, they were taking Will Levis based on the post draft interviews with the GM.

 

[menobrown]

It's all about who paid/pays/must pay it. I think what Spotrac is representing here is the new team's dead cap liability.

Thanks for attempt at the answer but I don't think that's the case. When you got the time look at deals like Herbert and Diggs, if you add up the amount of signing bonus and option bonus it's going to equal what they show as the dead cap to the team they'd be leaving.

I'd also add when I see beat writers report on stuff like"how much would it take the Bills to cut/trade Diggs" it matches the total from those two sites, which is including the option bonus on the departing team.

One thing I read is that Option bonuses, unlike a roster bonus, is spread out over the course of the contract. But I think it's not really an option, it's a guarantee but is just a way to limit actual cash flow of a signing bonus to teams.

 

[kyoun1e]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

Not close to enough.

And there's historical precedent indicating such. Minimum would be 11, 23 and next year's first rounder.

 

[Hankmoody]

Thanks for attempt at the answer but I don't think that's the case. When you got the time look at deals like Herbert and Diggs, if you add up the amount of signing bonus and option bonus it's going to equal what they show as the dead cap to the team they'd be leaving.

You're right it's not I took a lazy first glance at it , but I did RE it. I think they have a computational error based on the ambiguity of the timing and complexity of the formula.

Herbert has two Option Bonuses guaranteed - a 2024 Option Bonus of $50.6M due 3/24 and a 2025 Option Bonus of $45M presumably due in 2025.

2024 Dead Cap: $13,345,675

This one's easy. This is the 2024 prorate of dead money from signing bonus $3,225,675 plus the 2024 pro-rate of the Option bonus (due 3/24, so will have been paid out prior to June 1st) of $10,120,000.​

2025 Dead Cap: $95,157,025

This one's almost easy. It's the last three years of signing bonus prorate ($3,225,675 x 3 = $9,677,025) plus the 4 remaining years of the 2024 Option Bonus ($10,120,000 x 4 = $40,480,000). Those two total $50,157,025. For some reason it's adding in the 2025 Option Bonus. Technically 2025 is post-June 1 so it's adding the $45M guaranteed Option Bonus because the actual date of the payout isn't specified/included in the computation. But LAC wouldn't take that hit if they traded him post-June 1st but pre-payout, the new team would eat the allocation.​

 

[IHEARTFF]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

Not close to enough.

And there's historical precedent indicating such. Minimum would be 11, 23 and next year's first rounder.

11, 23 and Addison should entice AZ out of 4. Not sure if that’s too rich of a price to pay for probable qb4 but we’ll see what Minny wants to do.

 

[skol asylum]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

Not close to enough.

And there's historical precedent indicating such. Minimum would be 11, 23 and next year's first rounder.

That's not what the trade charts indicate. Maybe a 2nd or 3rd but not another 1st.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Kenny Pickett for 98 huh. Fields value moving back up.

 

[menobrown]

Thanks for attempt at the answer but I don't think that's the case. When you got the time look at deals like Herbert and Diggs, if you add up the amount of signing bonus and option bonus it's going to equal what they show as the dead cap to the team they'd be leaving.

You're right it's not I took a lazy first glance at it , but I did RE it. I think they have a computational error based on the ambiguity of the timing and complexity of the formula.

Herbert has two Option Bonuses guaranteed - a 2024 Option Bonus of $50.6M due 3/24 and a 2025 Option Bonus of $45M presumably due in 2025.

This one's easy. This is the 2024 prorate of dead money from signing bonus $3,225,675 plus the 2024 pro-rate of the Option bonus (due 3/24, so will have been paid out prior to June 1st) of $10,120,000.​

2025 Dead Cap: $95,157,025

This one's almost easy. It's the last three years of signing bonus prorate ($3,225,675 x 3 = $9,677,025) plus the 4 remaining years of the 2024 Option Bonus ($10,120,000 x 4 = $40,480,000). Those two total $50,157,025. For some reason it's adding in the 2025 Option Bonus. Technically 2025 is post-June 1 so it's adding the $45M guaranteed Option Bonus because the actual date of the payout isn't specified/included in the computation. But LAC wouldn't take that hit if they traded him post-June 1st but pre-payout, the new team would eat the allocation.​

Thanks for the detailed and thoughtful reply but I'm afraid I dont think this is correct. As I believe neither was Buckna's original premise on the dead cap hits to trade Herbert. Sorry guys, really, I think all 3 of us know how to compute basics of the cap but the option bonus threw us all off, I made a similar mistake earlier when reviewing the Diggs contract.

For me to think it's not wrong I'd have to include OTC, Spotrac and multiple credible reporters were all wrong.

If you look at the bottom of Herberts page on Spotract it wil tell show you this:
$133.7M guaranteed at signing (signing bonus + 2023 salary + 2024 salary + 2024 option bonus + 2025 salary + 2025 option bonus)

That means those option bonus are guaranteed, the due date is not like a roster option but simply the date payment is due and those payments are paid by the team that tendred the contract regardless if that player is still on the team or not.

I'll try and make this brief and use Diggs contract which is easier to compute and backed up by article today from Florio.

The article is here:https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profo...stefon-diggs-how-long-will-the-bills-keep-him

And this is the key part of the article:

His $18.5 million salary for 2024 becomes fully guaranteed this weekend. He has a 2024 cap number of $27.854 million. Trading him before June 1 would trigger a cap charge of $31.096 million.

Now let's look at Diggs contract:

2024 Base pay $18.5
Remaining signing bonus to prorate: $18.296
Remaining Option bonus: $12.8M

Without factoring in the option bonus one would come up with a number of $18.296M dead cap hit, the amount of the prorated signing bonus. But Florio, Spotrac, OTC and every reputable place is reporting his dead cap hit is $31.096 becuse they are all adding in the option bonus. Again , I struggle to think everyone else is wrong and we got it right.

Diggs and Herberts option bonus are guaranteed. When it's guaranteed it's the same thing as a signing bonus and my guess is just utilized by teams for cash flow purposes.

 

[menobrown]

Kenny Pickett for 98 huh. Fields value moving back up.

Well they had to kick in a 4th, works out in total to like a mid 4th on the trade value chart.

But since it was reported that the Eagles pursued Fields first, and pivoted to Pickett due to cost, the Bears are holding out for more then a mid 4th.

 

[menobrown]

Kenny Pickett for 98 huh. Fields value moving back up.

Well they had to kick in a 4th, works out in total to like a mid 4th on the trade value chart.

But since it was reported that the Eagles pursued Fields first, and pivoted to Pickett due to cost, the Bears are holding out for more then a mid 4th.

Well dang, lol, that aged like Mel Gibson.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Kenny Pickett for 98 huh. Fields value moving back up.

Well they had to kick in a 4th, works out in total to like a mid 4th on the trade value chart.

But since it was reported that the Eagles pursued Fields first, and pivoted to Pickett due to cost, the Bears are holding out for more then a mid 4th.

Well dang, lol, that aged like Mel Gibson.

lol yikes

 

[kyoun1e]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

Not close to enough.

And there's historical precedent indicating such. Minimum would be 11, 23 and next year's first rounder.

That's not what the trade charts indicate. Maybe a 2nd or 3rd but not another 1st.

I'd think that NE will use the Trey Lance trade as a baseline for what they'd want to trade down from 3.

SF traded their #12 pick, a third round pick, and a next year first rounder to move up to 3.

On the trade chart it was an overpay. Wont surprise me if that happens again, because this is a QB driven league and this year there appears to be 3 locks, and maybe JJ is worth being in that tier AND next year's QB class is mediocre.

 

[skol asylum]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

Not close to enough.

And there's historical precedent indicating such. Minimum would be 11, 23 and next year's first rounder.

That's not what the trade charts indicate. Maybe a 2nd or 3rd but not another 1st.

I'd think that NE will use the Trey Lance trade as a baseline for what they'd want to trade down from 3.

SF traded their #12 pick, a third round pick, and a next year first rounder to move up to 3.

On the trade chart it was an overpay. Wont surprise me if that happens again, because this is a QB driven league and this year there appears to be 3 locks, and maybe JJ is worth being in that tier AND next year's QB class is mediocre.

Remember that future picks are generally looked at as being discounted a round. So the Vikings #23 pick is more valuable than a 2025 1st.

But you are right, it's really all about what the team moving down will accept.

 

[Grahamburn]

#11 + #23 and a late rounder should get to #3 with NE if they are game. Franchise QB without losing future firsts. I like it.

Not close to enough.

And there's historical precedent indicating such. Minimum would be 11, 23 and next year's first rounder.

That's not what the trade charts indicate. Maybe a 2nd or 3rd but not another 1st.

I'd think that NE will use the Trey Lance trade as a baseline for what they'd want to trade down from 3.

SF traded their #12 pick, a third round pick, and a next year first rounder to move up to 3.

On the trade chart it was an overpay. Wont surprise me if that happens again, because this is a QB driven league and this year there appears to be 3 locks, and maybe JJ is worth being in that tier AND next year's QB class is mediocre.

Remember that future picks are generally looked at as being discounted a round. So the Vikings #23 pick is more valuable than a 2025 1st.

But you are right, it's really all about what the team moving down will accept.

I don’t know if I agree with that necessarily. The Vikings look to be pretty high on the tankathon chart. Their 2025 1st could be top 5.