Ranking Lions’ UFA, Projected Contacts, & Odds they will re-sign
The Lions have 31 players set to hit free agency, including 22 who will be unrestricted and free to sign with another team on March 12, the start of the next league year.
Before that time arrives, let's rank those 22 UFAs, project their next contracts — factoring in age, skill set, production and potential — and assess the odds of Detroit re-signing them.
1. Cornerback Carlton Davis
When general manager Brad Holmes set out to revamp the team’s cornerback room last offseason, he couldn’t have scored a much better fit for the cost than Davis. A physical, press-man defender who is comfortable matching up against the best receiving option the opponent has to offer and never afraid of charging into the fire in run support, Davis elevated a position group that had struggled immensely the past few seasons.
His physicality has long hindered his durability, which showed up again this season. He ended the year on the shelf after suffering a jaw injury while making a run stop. But he was what the doctor had ordered in the games he played.
The question becomes whether the Lions can afford him. Cornerbacks are among the highest-paid positions in football, and in a thin free-agency class, he’ll get among the best players available.
Projected contract: Four years, $78 million
Odds Lions re-sign? 30%. The team has limited room for big contracts, particularly if they seek long-term deals with the players they’ve drafted and developed, such as Aidan Hutchinson, Kerby Joseph, Brian Branch, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs.
2. Linebacker Derrick Barnes
It took two full seasons, but things really started to click for Barnes heading into the 2023 season, allowing him to out-snap first-round draft pick Jack Campbell that season. And when it looked like Campbell was ready to claim a more prominent role heading into his second year, the Lions showed their continued belief in Barnes by having him on the field for 86.5% of the team's defensive reps through the first two weeks of the season.
Barnes' value on the open market is anchored by his limited playmaking numbers. He doesn't generate a lot of sacks, has forced one fumble, and has no interceptions in the regular season (although he had a huge one to seal a playoff win over the Buccaneers a year ago). Still, it was clear how much the Lions missed his schematic understanding and reliable positioning that created opportunities for others.
After missing most of last season with a knee injury, it's conceivable Barnes opts for a one-year, prove-it deal to re-establish his value.
Projected contract: Three years, $16.5 million
Will the Lions re-sign? 60%. The Lions are a draft, develop and re-invest team under Holmes. Barnes worked hard to meet his potential and fill a role different from the one he played in college. It's easy to see the Lions rewarding that.
3. Guard Kevin Zeitler
The Lions had hoped to re-sign Jonah Jackson last offseason. But when the Rams outbid them, the team turned to Zeitler, an older veteran coming off his first Pro Bowl season. Shortly after the signing, coach Dan Campbell suggested the team’s offensive line might be better in 2024 with the addition. In many ways, that proved true.
Despite nearing his 35th birthday, Zeitler was outstanding, drawing strong consideration for All-Pro honors. He’s said he has no plans to retire, enjoyed his new surroundings, and is hopeful the Lions want to continue the partnership.
The wrench in the conversation is the emergence of rookie Christian Mahogany. He looks ready to move into the starting lineup after strong performances in two spot starts. Retaining Zeitler could come down to choosing him over Graham Glasgow.
Projected contract: One year, $6 million
Will the Lions re-sign? 35%. On paper, there’s a strong case to be made for keeping Zeitler over Glasgow, but parting ways with the latter one year into the three-year, $20 million deal he signed last offseason would carry a $5.3 million cap hit. That nearly doubles the cost of making the swap.
4. Defensive tackle Levi Onwuzurike
Seeing Onwuzurike play an entire season was a joy after he spent two years plagued by a back injury and a third understandably being handled with kid gloves coming off a fusion surgery.
The 635 defensive snaps he logged were more than he saw in those first three seasons combined. And while the 28 tackles and 1.5 sacks he tallied in 2024 won’t grab you, he certainly had a more significant impact as a pass-rusher, generating a hearty 47 QB pressures, pointing to a higher production ceiling.
After weeks of camp battles, Zeitler boldly projected Onwuzurike could earn a contract paying him $20 million per season. That might be a stretch, given the long-term concerns with his back. Still, the going rate for talent at the position surged last offseason, suggesting Onwuzurike is primed to cash in.
Projected contract: Three years, $45 million
Will the Lions re-sign? 30%. That’s a painfully low percentage given the grit and determination Onwuzurike exhibited the past four years, plus Holmes’ well-established love for the player, but that kind of money is a tough sell after the team already paid linemate Alim McNeill.
5. Cornerback Khalil Dorsey
The best gunner in the league? That’s difficult to say with conviction, but the Lions coaching staff and record-breaking punter Jack Fox feel that way about the speedy cornerback. On top of that role, Dorsey also offers kickoff return ability.
And he is more than a special teams standout. He’s a capable backup on defense.
Unfortunately, he’s recovering from a broken leg that required surgical repair, which has the potential to affect his value. He’s not expecting to be at full strength until mid-June.
Projected contract: One year, $2 million
Will the Lions re-sign? 65%. The Lions value special teams and Dorsey, specifically. Maybe they don’t race to get a deal done in March, allowing another team to swoop in, but if the rehab stays on track, it’s easy to see him back in Detroit in 2025.
6. Safety Ifeatu Melifonwu
When healthy, Melifonwu is a versatile and dynamic playmaker. The problem, far too often, is he hasn’t been healthy. He missed significant chunks in three of his four seasons with the Lions. Even in the season where he appeared in all 17 games (2023), he missed time in training camp and had to briefly wear a club after breaking his hand in practice.
I don’t believe Melifonwu’s durability issues stem from a lack of care for his body. He takes his diet and training seriously. Sometimes, these things are simply outside an individual’s control.
At his best, he can line up anywhere in the secondary, where he’s reliable in coverage, run support and as a blitzer. He flourished in the latter role despite almost no experience rushing the passer before the 2023 season.
Projected contract: One year, $3 million
Will the Lions re-sign? 25%. The continually depressed safety market could result in Detroit’s willingness to run it back. But the team’s frustration with Melifonwu’s durability was palpable at times. The best ability is availability, as they say.
7. Wide receiver Tim Patrick
The Lions had multiple contenders for the team’s vacant No. 3 receiver job on last offseason’s roster, but none proved capable of grabbing the brass ring. They finally found their answer in Patrick, picking him up after he was let go by the Denver Broncos.
Patrick’s story is about remarkable perseverance, coming back from a torn ACL and torn Achilles to play his first games since 2021. He wound up appearing in 16 games for the Lions this season, logging more than 600 snaps. A strong blocker and big target with reliable hands, he hauled in 33 of 44 targets for 394 yards and a touchdown.
Yes, Patrick is older, at a position where there’s typically a steep drop-off after 30, but there’s some extra tread on the tires after missing two full seasons.
Projected contract: 1 year, $3.5 million
Will the Lions re-sign? 50%. Patrick fit in seamlessly, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him back given the struggles the Lions had filling the role last offseason. Regardless, I would strongly expect the team to add competition and a long-term solution in the draft.
8. Defensive end Al-Quadin Muhammad
Nobody thought much about the Muhammad signing when the team added him to the practice squad in early October. The defensive lineman hadn’t played in a regular season game since 2022 and was three years removed from his best season when he tallied 6.0 sacks for the Colts.
But mounting injuries up front led to Muhammad’s promotion to the active roster. And even though he was far from a star, he played reasonably well within the scheme, tallying 26 QB pressures and 3.0 sacks in nine games as a rotational end.
Projected contract: One year, $2 million
Will the Lions re-sign? 60%. Every team can use some reasonably priced depth capable of producing in a limited playing time or stepping into a larger role in a pinch.