The Lions have some leverage in negotiations, but here's how an extension with Hutchinson can still be framed in a way that he resets the bar.
West Palm Beach, Fla. — It was around this time last year that the Detroit Lions agreed to terms on long-term extensions with three of the franchise’s building blocks — Jared Goff, Penei Sewell and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
That trio is now tied to Detroit through the 2028 season. The deals are also emblematic of the team’s strategy to retain its own. This offseason, the Lions are looking to potentially lock up two other key pieces, All-Pro safety Kerby Joseph and 2023 Pro Bowler Aidan Hutchinson, the No. 2 pick from the 2022 draft.
Last month, we projected what
a market-resetting contract would look like for Joseph after he paced the league with nine interceptions in 2024, bringing his three-year tally to 17 picks. Up next is Hutchinson, who had been tracking toward winning Defensive Player of the Year honors before he suffered a season-ending broken leg in the second half of the team’s Week 6 game against the Dallas Cowboys.
Despite that devastating injury, Hutchinson, too, is poised to reset the market at his position. That’s a figure that’s already seen a sharp rise this offseason, with Maxx Crosby scoring a three-year, $106.5 pact from the Raiders, followed closely by Myles Garrett's four-year, $160 million appeasement from the Cleveland Browns after his public trade request weeks earlier.
That means the bar is now a $40 million average, 17.6% more than it was entering the offseason. Move over, Nick Bosa. At the league meetings this week, Lions general manager Brad Holmes acknowledged the jump was in line with the team’s forecasting.
“We had it in that range, kind of already, when we do our future planning and budgeting,” Holmes said.
It might surprise some when I tell you, don’t be surprised if Hutchinson’s final number comes in higher than $40 million, but with caveats tied to leverage the team holds in negotiations.
That starts with the fifth-year option tied to his rookie contract as a former first-round pick.
That option, which the team must exercise by May 1 if an extension isn’t in place before then, is significantly lower than $40 million. It’s actually only slightly more than half for Hutchinson, at $20.9 million.
Additionally, the Lions hypothetically could use the franchise tag in 2027. That’s a one-year deal averaging the top-five salaries at the position over the past five seasons. That will be increasing with the new deals for Garrett, Crosby and Danielle Hunter, but not enough from this year’s $24.7 million to threaten the $40 million threshold.
The Lions, under Holmes, aren’t going to play hardball with one of their star players, unnecessarily creating animosity. That’s not how this front office operates. Still, those numbers are relevant to conversations between the two sides.
A likely scenario will see the team seeking to mimic the structure they utilized with Sewell last year. Like Hutchinson, Sewell is unquestionably one of the top players at this position, upholds organizational standards, and is still shy of his physical prime. The team also had identical leverage with the fifth-year option and a future franchise tag prior to agreeing to an extension with the offensive tackle.
What we’re likely to see with Hutchinson is his $20.9 million fifth-year option factored into a four- or five-year extension, depending on the preference of the two sides. I'm leaning toward the shorter option because that's the way contracts are trending this offseason across the league, and it would put Hutchinson in a position to land a third contract heading into his age-30 season.
Then, the years beyond the option, 2027 through the end of the contract, can average more than $40 million. That money could be sold as the largest extension ever signed by a non-quarterback, based strictly on the new money.
That’s how it worked with Sewell. The four years after the fifth-year option averaged $28 million, besting the previous high for an offensive tackle. But by the time that part of the contract kicks in, two years after it's signed, it could be exceeded by multiple linemen. It’s already been topped by Tampa Bay’s Tristan Wirfs.
Here’s how I imagine Hutchinson’s contract will look: Four years, $150 million, $125 million guaranteed. That’s $20.9 million for the fifth-year option and a touch more than $43 million per year from 2027-29, topping Garrett’s average, as well as his $123.6 million in total guarantees.
Now, for a hypothetical structure.
Let’s start with a signing bonus of $20 million, which can be spread over five seasons, including 2025. And because the Lions have shown a propensity for utilizing them, we’ll add in another $25 million option bonus in 2026 and a void year in 2030, allowing that money to also be spread out across five seasons for cap purposes.
In terms of base salaries, we’ll leave Hutchinson’s numbers for the upcoming season alone, outside of baking in the prorated portion of the proposed signing bonus. That’s $4 million (one-fifth of $20 million), raising his cap hit for this season from $11.4 million to $15.4 million, which the team can easily absorb with
its current cap situation.
In 2026, the Lions would likely aim to keep Hutchinson’s cap hit on the lower side, given several larger bills coming due with the Goff, St. Brown, Sewell and Alim McNeill extensions. That can be achieved with the $25 million option bonus, which simultaneously awards Hutchinson cash upfront, almost like a second signing bonus.
If Hutchinson’s base salary is $3 million, plus the $4 million cap hit tied to the signing bonus, and $5 million for the prorated portion of the option bonus, that would give him a $12 million cap hit in 2026.
The base salaries would then need to balloon starting in 2027.
We’ll go with $31 million in 2027, $34 million in 2028, and $37 million in 2028. The first two would be fully guaranteed, with $12 million guaranteed in 2028.
Here’s a full breakdown:
2025
Base: $1.1 million
Pre-existing signing bonus: 5,788,343
New signing bonus: $4 million
Pre-existing roster bonus: $4,477,008
Cap hit: $15,365,351
2026
Base: $3 million (fully guaranteed)
Signing bonus: $4 million
Option bonus: $5 million
Cap hit: $12 million
Dead money: $121 million
2027
Base: $31 million (fully guaranteed)
Signing bonus: $4 million
Option bonus: $5 million
Cap hit: $40 million
Dead money: $109 million
2028
Base: $34 million (fully guaranteed)
Signing bonus: $4 million
Option bonus: $5 million
Cap hit: $43 million
Dead money: $69 million
2029
Base: $37 million (partially guaranteed)
Signing bonus: $4 million
Option bonus: $5 million
Cap hit: $46 million
Dead money: $26 million
2030 (Void year)
Option bonus: $5 million
Dead money: $5 million
Admittedly, these are nice, round numbers to make the conversation easier to digest. The Lions could easily incorporate workout and per-game bonuses into the structure.
Regardless, the heart of the projection remains key. The Lions have the fifth-year option at their disposal as leverage. However, they can also reward Hutchinson in a way that allows him to temporarily be acknowledged as the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history.
The first component keeps the average down across the duration of the deal, and by the time that new money kicks in, with the overall cap rising close to 10% per year, the number could be topped multiple times by 2027.
