BobbyLayne
Footballguy
#### it Jameson down there somewhere
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2025 Detroit Lions: 4-1 Lions win battle of the big cats. (30 Viewers)
- Thread starter Da Guru
- Start date
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Jameson with Lions fans
Williams, fans
guess he got over being miserable
Lions GM Brad Holmes on the move to get Jameson Williams:
"I told you guys I wanted to get gamechangers."
Williams, fans
guess he got over being miserable
Lions GM Brad Holmes on the move to get Jameson Williams:
"I told you guys I wanted to get gamechangers."
Zow
Footballguy
As a Vikings fan I'm very annoyed that pick 46 was somehow thrown in there. I didn't mind trading out of the spot, but Vikings got no significant value in return. Just didn't seem to make a lot of sense.I lovewhat Detroit did tonight.
Hutch should be tremendous, Howie Long, maybe Chris Long but probably more like Howie, like him a lot.
Jameson Williams was the best WR in this Draft Class, bar none. You all got him 4th off the board? Did Atlanta really take the Drake at 8? Oh nellie did you all pull one off here.
I liked Williams to be the top WR pick and thought he might get taken Top 5-10, great move by Detroit.
32 and 34 to move up to 12...they also sent 66 and got back 46
32-34....moved up to 12 from 32, move up from 66 to 46 and for all that you lose No 34? That's one way to look at that trade and then you get the best WR in the Draft Class?
"A"
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
it’s within the range of outcomes we could look back on this in three years and be able to say we got the best defensive player and the best offensive player in the draft.Is Jameson is that good, maybe Ryan Dey is not that good a judge of talent.
Holmes killed it tonight.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
The Captain
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I feel like teams are going to be on the horn with Jacksonville thru the wee hours trying to trade up to 33, it would be worth it for teams to make a push and try to steal that pick away...stealing is a loose term but if someone is sitting there teams actually want, it's gonna be a feeding frenzy early tomorrow night.
Plenty of QBs left from the projected Top 5 taken, Willis, Ridder, Corral, Howell, still see Seattle using one of their 40-41 picks but they also might feel like they can continue to build. Quality OL/DL/Edge/LB types on the board, could easily see Carroll continue to build for a QB next year or roll the dice in the 3rd, etc...QBs are falling it seems.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Trade Totals
Trader A Gives Value: 1410 (32+34+66)
Trader B Gives Value: 1640 (12+46)
Gain/Loss %
Trader A: +16.31%
Trader B: -14.02%
Vikings got the trade back most teams were looking for this year but paid the premium for it. Inside division trade yet.
Trader A Gives Value: 1410 (32+34+66)
Trader B Gives Value: 1640 (12+46)
Gain/Loss %
Trader A: +16.31%
Trader B: -14.02%
Vikings got the trade back most teams were looking for this year but paid the premium for it. Inside division trade yet.
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Moonlight
Footballguy
Watched his post draft interview with reporters and he's a guy of few words somewhat introverted. Seemed there was some disappointment for 3 other receivers going before him and maybe some surprise that Lions picked him as he didn't have much pre-draft contact with them.
Watched Holmes post draft interview and Williams was their first choice in WRs.
Also catching part of Thibodeaux's post draft interview his personality seems very suited for New York. It will be interesting comparison of his and Hutch's career.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Outkick: Jameson running really fast 15 weeks into rehab
running 4.4s, which is not quite up to his estimated 4.3 - GPS clocked him at a Tyreek-like 23mph in college - but still early in his rehab
straight line comes back first, right? just guessing but I imagine side to side agility / hard cuts won't come until after fully building back his strength?
doubt he plays a down before October - which is fine, Detroit is a great fit in terms of there's probably not a ton of pressure to be all world out of the gate (still in rebuild phase although they should be more competitive this year)
running 4.4s, which is not quite up to his estimated 4.3 - GPS clocked him at a Tyreek-like 23mph in college - but still early in his rehab
straight line comes back first, right? just guessing but I imagine side to side agility / hard cuts won't come until after fully building back his strength?
doubt he plays a down before October - which is fine, Detroit is a great fit in terms of there's probably not a ton of pressure to be all world out of the gate (still in rebuild phase although they should be more competitive this year)
Foosball God
Foos
Since Goff can't throw deep I don't think Williams is going to move the needle much. They absolutely need to get a strong arm QB in short order.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Obviously this is using hindsight, but I kind of wish the Lions didn't trade for Williams. The idea of Willis at 32, Dean, Hall or Watkins at 34 and still have 66. That looks bette to me.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Lions fans seem split, but check out the Viking fans reaction to this trade. 90% seem to absolutely hate it.Leroy Hoard said:
I'd take Cine and Dean happily in retrospect, but I still am a big fan of the trade.
Plus, if it kept Green Bay from getting a top WR and causes Rodger's head to explode, that's a big win in my book.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Thought about this last night bc it’s the only way that trade made sense for the Vikings
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
we got the best player
would rather have a difference maker who can flip the field over picking up one more “should develop into a starter” type pick
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
agreed, but Goff has never been the LT solutionFoosball God said:
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Not that different than a 2 for 1 fantasy trade. The team with the best player in most cases won the trade.
Foosball God
Foos
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
The Vikings need a QB. Cousins is not the answer. The problem is there isn't a franchise QB in this draft. But my guess is they take Willis in the 2nd.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Exactly. Jamison would be a top 12 pick in just about any draft year, even higher without the ACL tear. This is a legit blue chip player that would immediately start for any team and make a difference. The Lions don't have time to waste picks on players with a potentially high ceiling that never gets reached.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Seven catches, 184 yards and two touchdowns vs a Georgia team that has already had 5 defensive players drafted in the first round. Think about that.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
This comp from Chris Simms seems right: a faster and taller version of DeVonta Smith.
Foosball God
Foos
Not unless they draft a QB this year imo. There just isn't anyone behind Goff currently.And may even be benched by the time Williams gets healthy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Offensive line is a strength of this team. If the top RB is available when our pick roles around would that be a consideration? At first glance it seems stupid, but you need two RBs and Swift wasn’t exactly the picture of health last year. So many needs on defense but it would be tempting if Breece was still there.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Breeze or Walker would make people's heads explode. Not to say it would be a terrible idea.
Moonlight
Footballguy
Random thoughts
Looks like Lions sniped Williams from Eagles. Lot of interest in him, Williams previously said that eagles indicated that they were going to draft him. Eagles traded up to 13 as WR run was going on but Lions got ahead of them first. Afterwards Eagles then made the trade to get Brown which may have been a result of missing out on Williams. It was said that Lions had been trying to trade up before the 12th pick. The 12th pick turned out to be a great fit.
I'm not in favor of trade ups but I like the one for Williams it was not expensive and Williams is a difference maker which benefits the offense on all levels and with Chark Lions now can put the fear in defenses as long as Goff can get them the ball. As has been said with an intact OL and dangerous weapons at RB, WR and TE Goff has a true chance to prove his worth and determine if he stays.
When asked about QB at the post draft presser Holmes deferred the question but seemed to say that QB may still be an option somewhere in this draft.
Lion writers are reporting that Lions like their LBs and may not be in a hurry to draft one. Which is strange. May be smoke like it being reported that Thibodeaux blew his pre-draft interview with the Giants due to his personality and there was no way they were drafting him and of course they drafted him at #5.
Hope Lions focus on defense with remaining picks S, LB and DL are still needs to me. There are going to be good players available at 46 and 97. Backup TE is also needed.
Looks like Lions sniped Williams from Eagles. Lot of interest in him, Williams previously said that eagles indicated that they were going to draft him. Eagles traded up to 13 as WR run was going on but Lions got ahead of them first. Afterwards Eagles then made the trade to get Brown which may have been a result of missing out on Williams. It was said that Lions had been trying to trade up before the 12th pick. The 12th pick turned out to be a great fit.
I'm not in favor of trade ups but I like the one for Williams it was not expensive and Williams is a difference maker which benefits the offense on all levels and with Chark Lions now can put the fear in defenses as long as Goff can get them the ball. As has been said with an intact OL and dangerous weapons at RB, WR and TE Goff has a true chance to prove his worth and determine if he stays.
When asked about QB at the post draft presser Holmes deferred the question but seemed to say that QB may still be an option somewhere in this draft.
Lion writers are reporting that Lions like their LBs and may not be in a hurry to draft one. Which is strange. May be smoke like it being reported that Thibodeaux blew his pre-draft interview with the Giants due to his personality and there was no way they were drafting him and of course they drafted him at #5.
Hope Lions focus on defense with remaining picks S, LB and DL are still needs to me. There are going to be good players available at 46 and 97. Backup TE is also needed.
Moonlight
Footballguy
If Holmes sees them as a difference maker they will be drafted if there at 46, thats what we know.
Moonlight
Footballguy
Vikes took Cine at 32 who may have been our pick if we had been there. Decent chance that Vikes trade down from 34 based on what they did at 12. If they wanted Willis I think they would have chosen him at 32.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Yeah, I was mostly just joking around. I do think they should bring in some later round rookie or vet to compete with Goff.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
On Pat McAfee’s draft show last night they had Rodgers on and he said Williams was the only 1st round WR he considered a “sure thing” out of the WR the Packers had a 1st round grade for.
bless the Vikings
bless the Vikings
Foosball God
Foos
There better be some FA LBs in our future. There are a couple of good ones out there, otherwise the Pascal seems like a non-optimal use of a 2nd round pick.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I don't think the Lions plan to contend in 2022. They know this rebuild hits it's stride in 2023.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Brad Holmes is getting his guys - character above all else.
Prioritizing positional value & trusting he’ll fill less valuable positions in later rounds or FA.
Prioritizing positional value & trusting he’ll fill less valuable positions in later rounds or FA.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Moonlight
Footballguy
Colts may have sniped Nick Cross by trading in front of the Lions with the Lions then drafting Kerby Joseph.
Cross has been ranked ahead of Joseph for safeties by some. I know the Lions had interest in Joseph prior to the draft.
Addendum: Listened to Holmes post day 2 presser and he said Kerby Joseph was their preferred safety and that he had to surpress his "itch" to trade up for him.
Cross has been ranked ahead of Joseph for safeties by some. I know the Lions had interest in Joseph prior to the draft.
Addendum: Listened to Holmes post day 2 presser and he said Kerby Joseph was their preferred safety and that he had to surpress his "itch" to trade up for him.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Reddit post from a month ago on the devaluation of ILB & Holmes/DC/AD/Dorsey (latter is gone now) LB draft history. Plus some Day 3 LB candidates.
(no one will read this but bookmark if you ever suffer insomnia)
Analyzing Brad Holmes and co.'s history with the ILB position
Not to overly generalize, but *most* of the Lions fans I've seen tend to believe that either Detroit should or will draft an inside linebacker early into the 2022 NFL Draft, noting the weakness of the position relative to some others. And with a [very promising group of linebackers available in this year's draft class,](https://www.pff.com/news/draft-top-2022-nfl-draft-rankings-linebackers-nakobe-dean-devin-lloyd) it seems like a perfect storm in many regards.
However, before we jump the gun on this one, wanted to take a deep dive into why teams have started de-valuing ILB, and then evaluate the history of the Lions decision-makers to breakdown more *thoroughly* their valuation of the ILB position, in order that we may have a bit more expectation as to what they could be thinking.
So first up, let's talk about **why teams de-value the ILB position** more than they used to.
\--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Why Do Some Teams De-Value ILB?
There is a wide range of NFL GMs and decision-makers across the league who undervalue the inside linebacker position. Perhaps most notable here is Eagles GM Howie Roseman, who [has a history of "ignoring" the position](https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/eagles/howie-roseman-linebackers-rarely-devote-resources-nigel-bradham-jordan-hicks-kamu-grugier-hill) as fans would say, while several other teams have fallen into that category over the years.
While no one would contend that there are no longer *star* linebackers, the weight and value that the inside, off-ball linebacker position carries is fading a bit. Maybe not drastically, but it is a position that several teams, such as the Eagles, Browns, Rams, and others, have simply refused to address with the level of investment many of their fans believe the team should be giving it.
And for this, to some extents, we need to look at emerging trends, and the reflection of the RB position and ILB position. For the latter, here's a quote from [*Touchdown Wire*'s Michael Colangelo](https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2017/03/15/inside-linebacker-is-the-new-running-back-as-teams-dont-value-position-as-much-as-they-did-in-past/) from 2017:
>Sure, there are some running backs who will get paid, but most of the league sees the position as interchangeable. It’s almost a mirror reflection on the field. Use a big, pounding back on first and second downs, and sub in a speedy receiving back on third down and passing situations. Use a big, pounding linebacker on first and second down. Sub in a specialist on third and passing downs.
Which is short to say, we do see this as a reflection across the league. Teams adapt and respond to the emerging trends, seeking to copy trends they like on offense, and finding new ways to adjust on defense. For example, from a roster management perspective, teams are employing more and more defensive backs than ever before. Even Matt Patricia could see as much, quoting [Lions Wire's Scott Warheit](https://lionswire.usatoday.com/2019/02/12/patricia-dont-call-the-lions-a-3-4-or-a-4-3-defense/) here:
>Calling the terms 4-3 and 3-4 “obsolete,” Patricia explained that teams spend so much time in “sub-packages” on defense that the old descriptions like 3-4 and 4-3 have lost their relevance. Patricia then went on to promote the “multiple” fronts the Lions often use on defense.
You can also see this in the way the Chiefs, consider the pinnacle of spread offensive innovation under Andy Reid, have gone about things. The Chiefs employed a fast-paced, RPO-centric offense that opened up big plays for speedy wide receivers. The response from defenses? Switching from a single-high shell (1 deep-lying free safety) to a more split scheme two-high shell (what the Lions have been running under Glenn) to give them a bit more ability to hide their true coverage, and prevent teams from burning them as frequently over the top.
The same is happening with the linebacker position. Every defensive position has its offensive equivalent/rival. For WR's, the opposite is CB's. For QB's, the opposite is S. For OL, the opposite is DL. The off-ball linebacker position historically matched up against the running backs and tight ends, but again, as was mentioned in Colangelo's quote, the de-valuation of elite running backs has led to the de-valuation of elite inside linebackers. Running back has become a more specialist position, and tight ends are becoming more and more just "Big WR's", which shifts them more and more into the realm of being the opposites of safeties, not off-ball linebackers. While it's still true that having elite, effective, modern linebackers like a Fred Warner can be helpful, teams are also starting to see those as harder to come by, and instead are deploying more nickel defensive backs (a slot cornerback, a coverage/box safety, etc.).
So as the pieces they traditionally were responsible for shutting down change in their usage and value, so too does the valuation of the ILB position along with it. With the general de-emphasis on the run game, the off-ball linebacker position has become a specialist type role, with a more traditional run stopper on first and second down, and then third down seeing one of two trends: subbing off those ILBs for more coverage oriented players (extra DB, coverage OLB), or finding versatile ILBs who can double as 3rd down edge rushers (Patricia's style from the Patriots).
Thus, the only *true* full-time players are either players who can be elite against the run in the box, cover sideline-to-sideline, and defend in coverage, like a Fred Warner or Luke Keuchley-type, *or* a guy who can slide down and provide much needed pass rush, such as a Micah Parsons or Dont'a Hightower-type.
Again, this is just a breakdown of *why we are seeing teams doing this*, not a case for or against the Lions grabbing a linebacker early.
\--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In this, I am seeking to merely look at what the Lions brain trust has done, in order to help us gauge *if* the Lions recent run on veteran free agent linebackers (Alex Anzalone, Chris Board, Jarrad Davis) signals they are done adding, or if history suggests they'll invest early with valuable picks, or if they'll instead go bargain hunting in the later rounds. And not only that, we'll also look at **what measurements and traits** they tend to prioritize, and try to find some common themes to identify players who could be targets.
To do this, we're going to look at a couple of different teams and timeframes, notably:
* **Brad Holmes & Ray Agnew** (Los Angeles Rams, 2013-2020)
* **John Dorsey** (KC Chiefs, 2013-2017 // Cleveland Browns, 2017-2019 // Philadelphia Eagles, 2020)
* **Dan Campbell & Aaron Glenn** (New Orleans Saints, 2016-2020)
\--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Draft Position Trend
**Los Angeles Rams** (Holmes & Agnew)
Again, going from 2013 until 2020 to reflect the timeframe that Holmes served as Director of College Scouting for the Rams, i.e. when he was in his position of greatest influence on the decisions ultimately made by Les Snead.
Here's what you get:
|YEAR|DRAFT|PLAYER|SCHOOL|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2013|1.30|Alec Ogletree|Georgia|
|2015|7.224|Bryce Hager|Baylor|
|2016|6.190|Josh Forrest|Kentucky|
|2018|5.147|Micah Kiser|Virginia|
|2019|7.251|Dakota Allen|Texas Tech|
|2020|7.234|Clay Johnston|Baylor|
|2021|4.113|Derrick Barnes|Purdue|
Some important notes to add here:
* The Rams had star ILB James Laurinitis already on the roster from 2013-2015, originally a second-round selection from the tenure of GM Billy Devaney.
* The Rams also had another consistent starter in Mark Barron via a trade in 2014 that sent a 4th and 6th round pick to the Buccaneers for the former first-round pick. He started from 2014-2018 for the Rams.
* The Rams also found a starting caliber LB in the UDFA ranks in 2016, signing Cory Littleton out of Washington, though he only started on defense in 2018 and 2019 before signing with the Raiders.
**Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns** (John Dorsey)
Dorsey was general manager for two different teams, managing the Chiefs from 2013-2017, and then the Browns for the drafts of 2018-2019, before being fired.
|YEAR|DRAFT|PLAYER|SCHOOL|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2013 (KC)|4.99|Nico Johnson|Alabama|
|2015 (KC)|4.118|Ramik Wilson|Georgia|
|2017 (KC)|5.183|Ukeme Eligwe|Georgia Southern|
|2018 (CLE)|5.150|Genard Avery|Memphis|
|2019 (CLE)|5.155|Mack Wilson|Alabama|
* When Dorsey took over, the Chiefs already had longtime starter Derrick Johnson, a first-round pick from 2005, on the roster.
* Dorsey also had several one-year deals to find starters opposite of Johnson, such as Akeem Jordan (2013) and Joe Mays (2014), and then a longer deal with Josh Mauga (2014-2016).
* Dorsey also found a starting inside linebacker in the UDFA ranks, signing Akron LB Justin March-Lillard to the roster.
**New Orleans Saints** (Campbell & Glenn)
I'm including the head coach and defensive coordinator because Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes have talked about how they use a collaborative approach between the two of them, so both Campbell's background, and Glenn's input as far as scheme fits and such should also be factored in from 2016-2020.
However, should also be noted, both Campbell and Glenn were merely *position* coaches in New Orleans (though Campbell did hold AHC title), so suggesting too heavily on their input would be equivalent to say Duce Staley and Aubrey Pleasant are deciding our current draft trends.
|YEAR|DRAFT|PLAYER|SCHOOL|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2017|3.76|Alex Anzalone|Florida|
|2019|7.244|Kaden Elliss|Idaho|
|2020|3.74|Zack Baun|Wisconsin|
* The New Orleans Saints did actually *pay* for starting caliber linebackers in free agency as well, signing A.J. Klein (3-years, $15 million) and Demario Davis (3-years, $24 million) to starting caliber contracts, and Davis signed an extension in 2020 for 3-years, $27 million.
**Overall Draft Trend:**
|Influencer|Avg. Draft Position|Avg. LBs Per Draft|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Brad Holmes & Ray Agnew|169.9|.77|
|Dan Campbell & Aaron Glenn|179.3|.60|
|John Dorsey|141.0|.71|
So the overall average between these five trends is **152.5**, which equates an early fifth-round selection in the 2022 Draft. The Lions do not have their original fifth-round pick (5.145), trading it to the Broncos for WR Trinity Benson. Around that average position, the Lions have a late-third round compensatory selection (3.97) and a late-fifth round compensatory selection (5.177).
This actually provides a nice simple cut off for the Lions. Those first five selections in the top-100 are spots they can find impact pieces (players who will be expected to start/contribute either right away or during their second season), and the more depth/developmental spots in Day 3, where they have four selections.
But before we speculate further, let's speculate some more on a slightly different topic?
\--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
# What has Holmes done as the Lions GM?
A great question to ask ourselves, because while the trends of the Lions brain trust previously *are* important, as we saw under Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia, and with so many others across the league, it isn't the end all be all, because Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell were merely part of the process in their previous roles, but are now the independent decision-makers here in their new roles.
So let's evaluate a couple of things.
[Cowboys LB Micah Parsons was almost a member of the Detroit Lions. ](https://preview.redd.it/srdix5t7ajq81.png?width=560&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5086615c8193b83266083c7add566f8a74c7098)
**(1.) Detroit showed serious interest in draft an inside linebacker in Round 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft**.
As mentioned, I was a huge advocate for drafting Penn State ILB Micah Parsons, and it looks like the Lions decision-makers [more or less agreed with me](https://twitter.com/JeffRisdon/status/1488856804096450563?s=20&t=hwy0v5_mWyxvWrJV836_sw) on him being worth the investment of the seventh-overall selection. Had the slightly *more* well-regarded Penei Sewell not fallen to Detroit on Draft Day, then the Lions would likely have landed Parsons.
But, we do need to be careful in simply assuming that the Lions interest in Parsons de facto implies that they value ILB heavily. As I mentioned in the "why teams de-value LB" section, the only guys who really can be full-time players these days, are guys who can provide value on 3rd down as well, and Parsons is an [electric pass rusher](https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/lb-or-de-makes-no-difference-to-micah-parsons) who tallied 13.0 sacks and 20.0 tackles for loss in his rookie season, clearly giving exceptional value there.
Additionally, you can see this as well with the other players who were drafted *heavily* in the backgrounds/histories above.
In Holmes first year as a top lieutenant in the Rams front office, they selected ILB Alec Ogletree, and go ahead and read what [scouting reports](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1609892-alec-ogletree-scouting-report-nfl-outlook-for-georgia-lb) on him coming out of Georgia said:
>A former safety who outgrew the position, [Alec Ogletree](http://bleacherreport.com/alec-ogletree) is one of the best athletes in the draft regardless of position. Ogletree possesses every physical asset imaginable to be an All-Pro linebacker. He still plays like a defensive back and it may take a couple of years before he is an every-down player, but he should make an instant impact as a sub linebacker who can match pass-catching running backs and tight ends who detach from the formation and line up as receivers.
So right there, you have a player whose third-down talent is as a coverage guy, *even* covering flexed tight ends, like I mentioned. Another one to notice is former Saints third-round linebacker selection Zack Baun, [here's some words on him from Lance Zeirlein:](https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zack-baun/32004241-5567-7316-c31c-c66079e71b79)
>Ascending prospect whose explosive production on the field has begun to mirror his explosive athletic traits. Baun's twitchy get-off and deep bend at the edge is nightmare fuel for Big Ten tackles and he's still at the early stages of pass rush development. He is aggressive to flow downhill in run support, has sideline-to-sideline range and is fluid dropping into coverage. He's strong but a little light as an edge-setter so teams will need to figure out how best to align him. Baun is a scheme-diverse linebacker with high-impact potential whose best days are ahead of him.
Baun holds the opposite traits there, with a comparison to Kyle Van Noy, you can see that he fits the mold of "third down can be an extra pass rusher off the edge" (though Baun does have some ability in coverage, though not enough to be considered a third-down coverage linebacker, more like a "trustworthy to cover tight ends on first down" type of thing).
So, the trends here are that the Lions may show interest early if the player has a very clear role to become a full-time player. It's less about being well-rounded in that regards, because players like Parsons and Ogletree fall less into the "well-rounded" category, and more into the "really darn good at two things, but less so on a third". The roles need to be clearly there for them.
**(2.) Brad Holmes did just invest** ***relatively*** **heavily on the ILB position last season in Derrick Barnes.**
Not only did the Lions select Purdue LB Derrick Barnes at 113th overall, almost a full-round higher than the average that Holmes was a part of in LA, but they also traded a *future* fourth-round pick as well to grab him. By the standard that Holmes came from, the Lions invested fairly heavily in Derrick Barnes. And for good reason, as Detroit really likes the upside that Barnes brings to the table.
Note the response Holmes gave about Barnes during [an end of the season press conference:](https://lionswire.usatoday.com/lists/detroit-lions-brad-holmes-press-conference-season-nfl-draft-notes/)
>Then with Barnes, another fourth-rounder, a guy that we were high on that we loved. You’ve got to think Barnes – look, he was playing linebacker his first year last year at Purdue. He was learning how to play linebacker last year. So, then he makes the jump to the NFL and he’s still learning how to play linebacker. Now I will say, the growth that he’s made from the start of the season till just this past game has been tremendous with (Inside Linebackers Coach) Mark (DeLeone) doing a great job with him. (Special Assistant to President/CEO and Chairperson) Chris (Spielman) has been doing a great job with him. I’m encouraged by the growth that he’s shown. I’ll just say though, the play that he got the touchdown caught on him on the boot that slid out, probably about four or five weeks ago he would have not even probably recognized that coming, but he did.
>
>So, just little nuances like that where you saw the growth and development in his game. I think the future is bright for him as well.
So by all accounts, the Lions do have one player they seem to believe *will* become a key piece for them. Now, that isn't to be confused with Barnes actually *being* a key piece for them, as you really shouldn't let someone's not-established upside get in the way of a genuine upgrade. Barnes does factor here, especially for 2022, but the long-term standing has yet to be decided.
**(3.) The Lions did add multiple players around Barnes with either starting experience, or upside to be a starter in various roles**.
First and foremost, Detroit kicked things off by re-signing Alex Anzalone to a 1-year deal worth about $2.2 million. Second, the Lions [had interest in signing former Rams/Raiders ILB Cory Littleton](https://www.si.com/nfl/lions/news/lions-wanted-linebacker-cory-littleton), but missed out on him. That perhaps led to their next move or two, signing Ravens ILB Chris Board to similar deal to Anzalone's, a 1-year, $2.0 million deal with half of it guaranteed. Those deals put them at 52nd (Anzalone) and 54th (Board) in the league by average, which given that most teams still start 2 inside linebackers in their nickel packages anyways, constitutes *low-end starter money* at the position.
The other move that they made was adding former Lions first-round pick Jarrad Davis back to the roster, though his contract is as a veteran minimum. But, it is for a player with immense athletic upside, and plenty of starting experience.
Looking at this, Detroit did do quite a bit of work to add starting caliber experience, and various skillsets to their room, bringing in Anzalone's instincts and familiarity with the scheme, Board's upside in coverage and special teams ability, and Davis' speed and physicality. As mentioned, with the ILB becoming more situational and rotational, having several guys with unique skillsets is important in that.
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# Conclusion Thoughts on Lions Valuation & Need
Again, these are just my thoughts after laying out some important pieces and factors and trying to sift through those and evaluate.
Overall, I do think that the background that the Lions decision-makers employ does tend to **hold a lower opinion of the ILB position** than a lot of fans would. Now, again, the did show a willingness to invest heavily in guys before (Parsons, Ogletree), but that requires some remarkable abilities aside from standard two-down inside linebackers.
Now personally, looking at this through the lens of where the Lions might draft an inside linebacker, my personal opinion is that most of the background and roster composition suggests that **Detroit isn't going to add a linebacker until the fifth-round or later**. Again, just my take, you're welcome to disagree, but the Lions have about four players who can loosely be considered "starting talents" in Anzalone, Barnes, Davis, and Board. Now, are they great starters? By no means. But the Rams haven't really needed that, instead preferring to find players that can fit clear roles and not break the bank allowing them to invest at more crucial positions like pass rushers (Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd, Von Miller) and in the secondary (Jalen Ramsey, drafted a multitude of other DBs as well).
I will also add a major caveat: This year has a very deep group of developmental linebackers. This is the first class where we are really starting to see the idea of modern linebackers becoming the norm, rather than the more traditional thumpers. So, while the valuation hasn't always been high, you could argue that there are more options that provide that value earlier than they consider the two-down thumpers to hold, and that could prompt them to add a linebacker fairly early.
I think I'd phrase it like this:
* My expectation is that the Lions won't address the ILB position until the fifth-round (5.177, 6.181, 6.217, 6.235)
* A selection of a linebacker in the third-round (3.66, 3.97) wouldn't surprise me.
* A selection of a linebacker earlier than that (1.02, 1.32, 2.34) would be *very* surprising.
Overall, I hope people can see how and why I am coming to that opinion, not merely because it is what I *want* to happen, but rather, a conclusion after trying to evaluate a handful of factors and criteria previously demonstrated.
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# Building a Profile for Who Fits?
Another thing I did was read thru multiple scouting reports on some of the guys the Rams drafted, and the college scouting reports on guys the Lions have signed, to try and identify some common themes. So let's discuss those and which 2022 prospects seem like natural fits there.
**Lions Need**
First thing to note here is what the Lions actually need. They tend to deploy two inside linebackers, a full-time backer who plays a little more traditional and downhill (MIKE), and then a coverage-oriented guy (WILL). With a switch to a 4-man front, I don't think that's going to change a ton, but if it does, it'd probably lead towards finding a bit more run-focused guy at the WILL spot. Not disregarding the pass coverage aspect, because adding someone like Chris Board implies they *want* that still, but just noting that going from a 3-4 to a 4-2 does remove a player from the front, meaning there's more run responsibility from the WILL linebacker.
With Derrick Barnes, Jarrad Davis, and Alex Anzalone, the Lions are likely set at the MIKE inside linebacker position, though Anzalone can double as an earlier down WILL, especially in a shift to a 4-man front. So lose depth chart like this:
|MIKE:|Alex Anzalone\*|Derrick Barnes|Jarrad Davis|Curtis Bolton|Anthony Pittman|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|WILL:|Alex Anzalone\*|Chris Board|Josh Woods|Shaun Dion Hamilton|Tavante Beckett|
Essentially, Anzalone can start wherever, especially early, and either Barnes or Board operates as the second starter depending on down, opposing scheme, etc. and then roles for Jarrad Davis and Josh Woods to see time, and likely be special teams contributors.
**Common Traits/Themes**
So there's two ways we need to go about this. The first is the themes for the *highly* valued linebackers (Rounds 1-3), and the second is the themes for the *lesser* valued linebackers (Rounds 4-7).
The early drafted ILBs tend to have a focus of:
* Elite athleticism is a priority. The RAS scores for these guys are all very high, such as Micah Parson's 9.59, Alex Anzalone's 8.03, Zack Baun's 7.85, Alec Ogletree's 7.24.
* Specifically **lateral quickness** is a common theme in these scouting reports. Guys who can change directions in a hurry and move side-to-side very well.
* Also a high value for their **instinctive ability, namely reacting in the box**.
* And of course, possess an ***elite*** **additional trait**, either as a pass rusher, blitzer, or coverage guy. Not someone who has the upside to be that, but someone who is.
* Important note here: Holmes' background shows a higher willingness to take guys early who are developmental about playing in the box, but not a willingness to take guys who are developmental about their additional elite trait.
* For example, Parsons and Ogletree were both new converts to the ILB position and thus, a little raw about the specifics of playing in the box, but Parsons *was* an exceptional blitzer and pass rusher, and Ogletree *was* an excellent coverage piece coming out of college.
* There is a difference there I hope people can understand.
As for the lesser valued ILBs, those tend to focus more on:
* Their ability to **play the run physically in the box**.
* **Tackling** becomes a major priority for the second-tier guys.
* **Football IQ** is a commonly mentioned trait for a lot of these guys, as is **leadership**.
* **Athleticism** remains a high(ish) concerns, but more flexible. For example...
* High athleticism: Micah Kiser (8.43), Derrick Barnes (8.42), Bryce Hager (7.62), Chris Board (7.02)
* Average athleticism: Dakota Allen (6.03), Mack Wilson (5.24), Clay Johnston (no RAS, but profiled as avg.)
* Low athleticism: Nico Johnson (4.08), Ramik Wilson (4.02), Josh Forrest (3.37)
With Holmes, he tends to go with higher athleticism, the lower numbers are more Dorsey's doing, but the lowest one (Forrest) did come from Holmes.
So here I am going to list some candidates who really fit well.
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# Good Fits // Early Investment
[Muma probably aligns with the estimated Lions checklist best. ](https://preview.redd.it/8w54zbkzojq81.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8f1edf84aa7f63cd2c4c4a75c09f03b32b6cee1)
First name up that fits the Lions profile is **Chad Muma** out of Wyoming. I think his tackling form is super inconsistent and could be an issue, but he fits very similarly to that mold of Alec Ogletree. Very polished and good in coverage, inconsistent technique inside the box, but the upside due to some elite athleticism (9.75 RAS) and great size to go with it at 6'3, 239 lbs. [Here's a link to Lance Zeirlein's profile on him.](https://www.nfl.com/prospects/chad-muma/32004d55-4d06-9215-fcf3-825af014060d) If Muma slide to the Lions at 3.66, that's the sort of high investment I think they'd have a hard time passing up, but otherwise, not sold on them drafting one early.
In a similar mold, Penn State linebacker **Brandon Smith** also fits that same mold, possessing elite coverage ability as a hang linebacker (similar to how the Lions like to use their coverage LB), and an absurdly impressive 9.98u RAS score. [Here's a link to Bleacher Report's profile on him.](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10021395-brandon-smith-nfl-draft-2022-scouting-report-for-penn-state-lb) Biggest issue is he's not great playing downhill according to multiple scouting reports, including my own.
The fit for FCS star **Troy Andersen** is a little murkier. He has that converted background that Holmes liked with Ogletree and Parsons, but like I said, doesn't have that elite, established trait to go along his development as an in-the-box linebacker. He's a former RB/QB, so he's very raw at just about everything. So he's a solid fit, but not a great fit. [Here's a link to The Draft Network's profile on him.](https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/troy-andersen/T42onfs21z)
I'd also add similar values for the two *other* Georgia linebackers, **Quay Walker** and **Channing Tindall**. I love Tindall's upside as a WILL linebacker next to Barnes long-term, but again, he doesn't exactly fit the early investment mold, as he's more of a well-rounded guy with some upside in coverage, but not exactly the instant caliber that you see with a Parsons or Ogletree type player. Walker probably fits better as a situational edge rusher, thanks to a tremendous blend of size (6'4, 241 lbs.) and athleticism (9.61 RAS), but the issue is it's hard to get a true gauge for his ability as an edge rusher because UGA rarely needed him to do that thanks to an embarrassment of riches with Azeez Ojulari, Nolan Smith, and Travon Walker in recent memory. So both solid, not great fits.
And you're probably wondering about the top two backers right? **Nakobe Dean** and **Devin Lloyd**? It's a weird dichotomy because Lloyd fits the profile a bit better, as a highly athletic (9.57 RAS) linebacker with excellent abilities blitzing and [rushing off the edge.](https://www.nfl.com/prospects/devin-lloyd/32004c4c-4f33-9464-66e8-761a50bda0c2) But he's a traditional MIKE, which means he overlaps with the less-needed position for Detroit. Dean fits the needs better (can play WILL), but doesn't really profile super well as an early investment piece, as his best abilities are in the box, and the upside is with the secondary tool. Add in some [lateral stiffness in his hips affecting change of direction,](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10021389-channing-tindall-nfl-draft-2022-scouting-report-for-georgia-lb) and the fit is inconsistent. So ultimately, great players, but also murky fits based on needs and profile.
Ultimately, if we are basing this solely on Detroit *needing* to find players who fit both the need and the profile, then Chad Muma and Brandon Smith are the only ones who pass *both* those tests with flying colors. Now as a side note, teams can break tendencies for elite talents, and I'm not arguing that Detroit *wouldn't* consider it, just saying there isn't anything in Holmes' background that really pushes them as options for fitting the standard mold (usually the safest bet!).
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# Good Fits // Later Investment
Now talking about later-round guys, the ones I'd suggest are more realistic options for Detroit.
LSU linebacker **Damone Clark** is an excellent fit for what the Lions are looking for, and also has a lot of connections to the Lions, whether via his time working with them at the Senior Bowl, or being coached by Lions' new ILB coach Kelvin Sheppard at LSU. However, [Clark is undergoing spinal fusion surgery](https://lionswire.usatoday.com/2022/03/24/2022-nfl-draft-prospect-damone-clark-lsu-injury-status-spinal-fusion-surgery/) which throws a serious wrench into his evaluation, and is overall a very crappy thing to hear. I reached out to a couple of sports science/doctors to ask their opinions on this sort of injury, and three of the four of them suggested that it is likely [far more serious than some are treating it,](https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2022/3/25/22995686/friday-open-thread-detroit-lions-consider-drafting-linebacker-lsu-damone-clark-2022-nfl-draft) as far as Clark's playing career. The gist of it is that when you have to fuse two vertebrae together it puts a lot of stress on the remaining ones, so that leaves you at massive risk for further fusions needed, or the risk of a hit separating the two fused vertebrae and risking horrible long-term effects. Not a doctor so that's just my takeaway from talking with some. Feel terrible for Clark, as it really looks like undrafted is the most likely scenario at this point, pending further specifics.
[Bernard could be a solid late-round option at WILL. ](https://preview.redd.it/cvrj1bjzujq81.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e28bea5aef4652ce2033cfa1d05eea19abbaaa3)
I mentioned him earlier, but one dude who fits *really* well for that later round profile is Baylor linebacker **Terrel Bernard**, a 6'1, 225 lbs. WILL linebacker who profiles as an [undersized sub-package nickel linebacker with special teams value on the next level".](https://www.nfl.com/prospects/terrel-bernard/32004245-5223-6424-136f-901f81674ee9) I watched two games, and tend to agree. His scouting reports all tend to list other promising factors like excellent leadership and character and work ethic. He tested as a good athlete (7.39 RAS) and also is a solid tackler and processor.
Indiana linebacker **Micah McFadden** also [fits the mold and profile for a MIKE linebacker](https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/micah-mcfadden) quite well as a Day 3 option. Similar to Derrick Barnes, he's physical and good in the box, and can offer *some* upside/usage as a situational pass rusher, but not a complete all-around piece, relegating him to the later rounds most likely.
[A&M linebacker Aaron Hansford profiles quite well for Detroit. ](https://preview.redd.it/l9qn2b6wujq81.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a1087b3360f5c56e0c46096029098630d95df8d)
One name that hasn't garnered much buzz but could is a player out of Dan Campbell's alma mater, A&M linebacker **Aaron Hansford**. He's a bit bigger (6'3, 240 lbs.) but has decent athleticism (7.54 RAS) and profiles a bit generically like Jarrad Davis, with great athleticism, blitzing, and upside, but a need to process things a little sharper to be useful. His coverage took a sizeable leap forward in 2021 according to PFF as well. Sharp tackler as well. Can hit with consistency and force. Probably a MIKE, but reminds me of Anzalone a bit.
Just some quicker bullets:
* Think UNC's **Jeremiah Gemmel** has a decent fit, with solid instincts, tackling, and coverage upside. Fits nicely as a WILL option on Day 3.
* Ole Miss' **Chance Campbell** really helped himself at the Combine with a 9.67 RAS in testing. Good size and ability in the box. Can possibly develop into starter and excellent special-teamer.
* Illinois' **Jake Hansen** reminds me a bit of Troy Reeder on film, profiling as a productive college LB who has a good feel for the game, but lacks the ability to be more than a two-down piece on the inside. Injury concerns though.
One to note/mention: Penei's brother **Nephi Sewell** could be an interesting addition as [nickel linebacker](https://www.nfl.com/prospects/nephi-sewell/32005345-5744-0460-78e0-ad2f28ed6cef) but not a great fit for the mold mentioned above as he's very bad in the box, and Detroit's tended to prefer a genuine slot cornerback or nickel safety rather than a "Space LB", so I don't think he'll actually garner much consideration unless the Lions are looking to change things while pursuing a feel-good story.
**Conclusion:** If you're reading this, thanks for sticking it out with me. This is a ton to digest, but been working on this project for a few weeks now. But I greatly appreciate it, and would love to answer any questions.
(no one will read this but bookmark if you ever suffer insomnia)
Analyzing Brad Holmes and co.'s history with the ILB position
Not to overly generalize, but *most* of the Lions fans I've seen tend to believe that either Detroit should or will draft an inside linebacker early into the 2022 NFL Draft, noting the weakness of the position relative to some others. And with a [very promising group of linebackers available in this year's draft class,](https://www.pff.com/news/draft-top-2022-nfl-draft-rankings-linebackers-nakobe-dean-devin-lloyd) it seems like a perfect storm in many regards.
However, before we jump the gun on this one, wanted to take a deep dive into why teams have started de-valuing ILB, and then evaluate the history of the Lions decision-makers to breakdown more *thoroughly* their valuation of the ILB position, in order that we may have a bit more expectation as to what they could be thinking.
So first up, let's talk about **why teams de-value the ILB position** more than they used to.
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# Why Do Some Teams De-Value ILB?
There is a wide range of NFL GMs and decision-makers across the league who undervalue the inside linebacker position. Perhaps most notable here is Eagles GM Howie Roseman, who [has a history of "ignoring" the position](https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/eagles/howie-roseman-linebackers-rarely-devote-resources-nigel-bradham-jordan-hicks-kamu-grugier-hill) as fans would say, while several other teams have fallen into that category over the years.
While no one would contend that there are no longer *star* linebackers, the weight and value that the inside, off-ball linebacker position carries is fading a bit. Maybe not drastically, but it is a position that several teams, such as the Eagles, Browns, Rams, and others, have simply refused to address with the level of investment many of their fans believe the team should be giving it.
And for this, to some extents, we need to look at emerging trends, and the reflection of the RB position and ILB position. For the latter, here's a quote from [*Touchdown Wire*'s Michael Colangelo](https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2017/03/15/inside-linebacker-is-the-new-running-back-as-teams-dont-value-position-as-much-as-they-did-in-past/) from 2017:
>Sure, there are some running backs who will get paid, but most of the league sees the position as interchangeable. It’s almost a mirror reflection on the field. Use a big, pounding back on first and second downs, and sub in a speedy receiving back on third down and passing situations. Use a big, pounding linebacker on first and second down. Sub in a specialist on third and passing downs.
Which is short to say, we do see this as a reflection across the league. Teams adapt and respond to the emerging trends, seeking to copy trends they like on offense, and finding new ways to adjust on defense. For example, from a roster management perspective, teams are employing more and more defensive backs than ever before. Even Matt Patricia could see as much, quoting [Lions Wire's Scott Warheit](https://lionswire.usatoday.com/2019/02/12/patricia-dont-call-the-lions-a-3-4-or-a-4-3-defense/) here:
>Calling the terms 4-3 and 3-4 “obsolete,” Patricia explained that teams spend so much time in “sub-packages” on defense that the old descriptions like 3-4 and 4-3 have lost their relevance. Patricia then went on to promote the “multiple” fronts the Lions often use on defense.
You can also see this in the way the Chiefs, consider the pinnacle of spread offensive innovation under Andy Reid, have gone about things. The Chiefs employed a fast-paced, RPO-centric offense that opened up big plays for speedy wide receivers. The response from defenses? Switching from a single-high shell (1 deep-lying free safety) to a more split scheme two-high shell (what the Lions have been running under Glenn) to give them a bit more ability to hide their true coverage, and prevent teams from burning them as frequently over the top.
The same is happening with the linebacker position. Every defensive position has its offensive equivalent/rival. For WR's, the opposite is CB's. For QB's, the opposite is S. For OL, the opposite is DL. The off-ball linebacker position historically matched up against the running backs and tight ends, but again, as was mentioned in Colangelo's quote, the de-valuation of elite running backs has led to the de-valuation of elite inside linebackers. Running back has become a more specialist position, and tight ends are becoming more and more just "Big WR's", which shifts them more and more into the realm of being the opposites of safeties, not off-ball linebackers. While it's still true that having elite, effective, modern linebackers like a Fred Warner can be helpful, teams are also starting to see those as harder to come by, and instead are deploying more nickel defensive backs (a slot cornerback, a coverage/box safety, etc.).
So as the pieces they traditionally were responsible for shutting down change in their usage and value, so too does the valuation of the ILB position along with it. With the general de-emphasis on the run game, the off-ball linebacker position has become a specialist type role, with a more traditional run stopper on first and second down, and then third down seeing one of two trends: subbing off those ILBs for more coverage oriented players (extra DB, coverage OLB), or finding versatile ILBs who can double as 3rd down edge rushers (Patricia's style from the Patriots).
Thus, the only *true* full-time players are either players who can be elite against the run in the box, cover sideline-to-sideline, and defend in coverage, like a Fred Warner or Luke Keuchley-type, *or* a guy who can slide down and provide much needed pass rush, such as a Micah Parsons or Dont'a Hightower-type.
Again, this is just a breakdown of *why we are seeing teams doing this*, not a case for or against the Lions grabbing a linebacker early.
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In this, I am seeking to merely look at what the Lions brain trust has done, in order to help us gauge *if* the Lions recent run on veteran free agent linebackers (Alex Anzalone, Chris Board, Jarrad Davis) signals they are done adding, or if history suggests they'll invest early with valuable picks, or if they'll instead go bargain hunting in the later rounds. And not only that, we'll also look at **what measurements and traits** they tend to prioritize, and try to find some common themes to identify players who could be targets.
To do this, we're going to look at a couple of different teams and timeframes, notably:
* **Brad Holmes & Ray Agnew** (Los Angeles Rams, 2013-2020)
* **John Dorsey** (KC Chiefs, 2013-2017 // Cleveland Browns, 2017-2019 // Philadelphia Eagles, 2020)
* **Dan Campbell & Aaron Glenn** (New Orleans Saints, 2016-2020)
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# Draft Position Trend
**Los Angeles Rams** (Holmes & Agnew)
Again, going from 2013 until 2020 to reflect the timeframe that Holmes served as Director of College Scouting for the Rams, i.e. when he was in his position of greatest influence on the decisions ultimately made by Les Snead.
Here's what you get:
|YEAR|DRAFT|PLAYER|SCHOOL|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2013|1.30|Alec Ogletree|Georgia|
|2015|7.224|Bryce Hager|Baylor|
|2016|6.190|Josh Forrest|Kentucky|
|2018|5.147|Micah Kiser|Virginia|
|2019|7.251|Dakota Allen|Texas Tech|
|2020|7.234|Clay Johnston|Baylor|
|2021|4.113|Derrick Barnes|Purdue|
Some important notes to add here:
* The Rams had star ILB James Laurinitis already on the roster from 2013-2015, originally a second-round selection from the tenure of GM Billy Devaney.
* The Rams also had another consistent starter in Mark Barron via a trade in 2014 that sent a 4th and 6th round pick to the Buccaneers for the former first-round pick. He started from 2014-2018 for the Rams.
* The Rams also found a starting caliber LB in the UDFA ranks in 2016, signing Cory Littleton out of Washington, though he only started on defense in 2018 and 2019 before signing with the Raiders.
**Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns** (John Dorsey)
Dorsey was general manager for two different teams, managing the Chiefs from 2013-2017, and then the Browns for the drafts of 2018-2019, before being fired.
|YEAR|DRAFT|PLAYER|SCHOOL|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2013 (KC)|4.99|Nico Johnson|Alabama|
|2015 (KC)|4.118|Ramik Wilson|Georgia|
|2017 (KC)|5.183|Ukeme Eligwe|Georgia Southern|
|2018 (CLE)|5.150|Genard Avery|Memphis|
|2019 (CLE)|5.155|Mack Wilson|Alabama|
* When Dorsey took over, the Chiefs already had longtime starter Derrick Johnson, a first-round pick from 2005, on the roster.
* Dorsey also had several one-year deals to find starters opposite of Johnson, such as Akeem Jordan (2013) and Joe Mays (2014), and then a longer deal with Josh Mauga (2014-2016).
* Dorsey also found a starting inside linebacker in the UDFA ranks, signing Akron LB Justin March-Lillard to the roster.
**New Orleans Saints** (Campbell & Glenn)
I'm including the head coach and defensive coordinator because Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes have talked about how they use a collaborative approach between the two of them, so both Campbell's background, and Glenn's input as far as scheme fits and such should also be factored in from 2016-2020.
However, should also be noted, both Campbell and Glenn were merely *position* coaches in New Orleans (though Campbell did hold AHC title), so suggesting too heavily on their input would be equivalent to say Duce Staley and Aubrey Pleasant are deciding our current draft trends.
|YEAR|DRAFT|PLAYER|SCHOOL|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2017|3.76|Alex Anzalone|Florida|
|2019|7.244|Kaden Elliss|Idaho|
|2020|3.74|Zack Baun|Wisconsin|
* The New Orleans Saints did actually *pay* for starting caliber linebackers in free agency as well, signing A.J. Klein (3-years, $15 million) and Demario Davis (3-years, $24 million) to starting caliber contracts, and Davis signed an extension in 2020 for 3-years, $27 million.
**Overall Draft Trend:**
|Influencer|Avg. Draft Position|Avg. LBs Per Draft|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Brad Holmes & Ray Agnew|169.9|.77|
|Dan Campbell & Aaron Glenn|179.3|.60|
|John Dorsey|141.0|.71|
So the overall average between these five trends is **152.5**, which equates an early fifth-round selection in the 2022 Draft. The Lions do not have their original fifth-round pick (5.145), trading it to the Broncos for WR Trinity Benson. Around that average position, the Lions have a late-third round compensatory selection (3.97) and a late-fifth round compensatory selection (5.177).
This actually provides a nice simple cut off for the Lions. Those first five selections in the top-100 are spots they can find impact pieces (players who will be expected to start/contribute either right away or during their second season), and the more depth/developmental spots in Day 3, where they have four selections.
But before we speculate further, let's speculate some more on a slightly different topic?
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# What has Holmes done as the Lions GM?
A great question to ask ourselves, because while the trends of the Lions brain trust previously *are* important, as we saw under Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia, and with so many others across the league, it isn't the end all be all, because Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell were merely part of the process in their previous roles, but are now the independent decision-makers here in their new roles.
So let's evaluate a couple of things.
[Cowboys LB Micah Parsons was almost a member of the Detroit Lions. ](https://preview.redd.it/srdix5t7ajq81.png?width=560&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5086615c8193b83266083c7add566f8a74c7098)
**(1.) Detroit showed serious interest in draft an inside linebacker in Round 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft**.
As mentioned, I was a huge advocate for drafting Penn State ILB Micah Parsons, and it looks like the Lions decision-makers [more or less agreed with me](https://twitter.com/JeffRisdon/status/1488856804096450563?s=20&t=hwy0v5_mWyxvWrJV836_sw) on him being worth the investment of the seventh-overall selection. Had the slightly *more* well-regarded Penei Sewell not fallen to Detroit on Draft Day, then the Lions would likely have landed Parsons.
But, we do need to be careful in simply assuming that the Lions interest in Parsons de facto implies that they value ILB heavily. As I mentioned in the "why teams de-value LB" section, the only guys who really can be full-time players these days, are guys who can provide value on 3rd down as well, and Parsons is an [electric pass rusher](https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/lb-or-de-makes-no-difference-to-micah-parsons) who tallied 13.0 sacks and 20.0 tackles for loss in his rookie season, clearly giving exceptional value there.
Additionally, you can see this as well with the other players who were drafted *heavily* in the backgrounds/histories above.
In Holmes first year as a top lieutenant in the Rams front office, they selected ILB Alec Ogletree, and go ahead and read what [scouting reports](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1609892-alec-ogletree-scouting-report-nfl-outlook-for-georgia-lb) on him coming out of Georgia said:
>A former safety who outgrew the position, [Alec Ogletree](http://bleacherreport.com/alec-ogletree) is one of the best athletes in the draft regardless of position. Ogletree possesses every physical asset imaginable to be an All-Pro linebacker. He still plays like a defensive back and it may take a couple of years before he is an every-down player, but he should make an instant impact as a sub linebacker who can match pass-catching running backs and tight ends who detach from the formation and line up as receivers.
So right there, you have a player whose third-down talent is as a coverage guy, *even* covering flexed tight ends, like I mentioned. Another one to notice is former Saints third-round linebacker selection Zack Baun, [here's some words on him from Lance Zeirlein:](https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zack-baun/32004241-5567-7316-c31c-c66079e71b79)
>Ascending prospect whose explosive production on the field has begun to mirror his explosive athletic traits. Baun's twitchy get-off and deep bend at the edge is nightmare fuel for Big Ten tackles and he's still at the early stages of pass rush development. He is aggressive to flow downhill in run support, has sideline-to-sideline range and is fluid dropping into coverage. He's strong but a little light as an edge-setter so teams will need to figure out how best to align him. Baun is a scheme-diverse linebacker with high-impact potential whose best days are ahead of him.
Baun holds the opposite traits there, with a comparison to Kyle Van Noy, you can see that he fits the mold of "third down can be an extra pass rusher off the edge" (though Baun does have some ability in coverage, though not enough to be considered a third-down coverage linebacker, more like a "trustworthy to cover tight ends on first down" type of thing).
So, the trends here are that the Lions may show interest early if the player has a very clear role to become a full-time player. It's less about being well-rounded in that regards, because players like Parsons and Ogletree fall less into the "well-rounded" category, and more into the "really darn good at two things, but less so on a third". The roles need to be clearly there for them.
**(2.) Brad Holmes did just invest** ***relatively*** **heavily on the ILB position last season in Derrick Barnes.**
Not only did the Lions select Purdue LB Derrick Barnes at 113th overall, almost a full-round higher than the average that Holmes was a part of in LA, but they also traded a *future* fourth-round pick as well to grab him. By the standard that Holmes came from, the Lions invested fairly heavily in Derrick Barnes. And for good reason, as Detroit really likes the upside that Barnes brings to the table.
Note the response Holmes gave about Barnes during [an end of the season press conference:](https://lionswire.usatoday.com/lists/detroit-lions-brad-holmes-press-conference-season-nfl-draft-notes/)
>Then with Barnes, another fourth-rounder, a guy that we were high on that we loved. You’ve got to think Barnes – look, he was playing linebacker his first year last year at Purdue. He was learning how to play linebacker last year. So, then he makes the jump to the NFL and he’s still learning how to play linebacker. Now I will say, the growth that he’s made from the start of the season till just this past game has been tremendous with (Inside Linebackers Coach) Mark (DeLeone) doing a great job with him. (Special Assistant to President/CEO and Chairperson) Chris (Spielman) has been doing a great job with him. I’m encouraged by the growth that he’s shown. I’ll just say though, the play that he got the touchdown caught on him on the boot that slid out, probably about four or five weeks ago he would have not even probably recognized that coming, but he did.
>
>So, just little nuances like that where you saw the growth and development in his game. I think the future is bright for him as well.
So by all accounts, the Lions do have one player they seem to believe *will* become a key piece for them. Now, that isn't to be confused with Barnes actually *being* a key piece for them, as you really shouldn't let someone's not-established upside get in the way of a genuine upgrade. Barnes does factor here, especially for 2022, but the long-term standing has yet to be decided.
**(3.) The Lions did add multiple players around Barnes with either starting experience, or upside to be a starter in various roles**.
First and foremost, Detroit kicked things off by re-signing Alex Anzalone to a 1-year deal worth about $2.2 million. Second, the Lions [had interest in signing former Rams/Raiders ILB Cory Littleton](https://www.si.com/nfl/lions/news/lions-wanted-linebacker-cory-littleton), but missed out on him. That perhaps led to their next move or two, signing Ravens ILB Chris Board to similar deal to Anzalone's, a 1-year, $2.0 million deal with half of it guaranteed. Those deals put them at 52nd (Anzalone) and 54th (Board) in the league by average, which given that most teams still start 2 inside linebackers in their nickel packages anyways, constitutes *low-end starter money* at the position.
The other move that they made was adding former Lions first-round pick Jarrad Davis back to the roster, though his contract is as a veteran minimum. But, it is for a player with immense athletic upside, and plenty of starting experience.
Looking at this, Detroit did do quite a bit of work to add starting caliber experience, and various skillsets to their room, bringing in Anzalone's instincts and familiarity with the scheme, Board's upside in coverage and special teams ability, and Davis' speed and physicality. As mentioned, with the ILB becoming more situational and rotational, having several guys with unique skillsets is important in that.
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# Conclusion Thoughts on Lions Valuation & Need
Again, these are just my thoughts after laying out some important pieces and factors and trying to sift through those and evaluate.
Overall, I do think that the background that the Lions decision-makers employ does tend to **hold a lower opinion of the ILB position** than a lot of fans would. Now, again, the did show a willingness to invest heavily in guys before (Parsons, Ogletree), but that requires some remarkable abilities aside from standard two-down inside linebackers.
Now personally, looking at this through the lens of where the Lions might draft an inside linebacker, my personal opinion is that most of the background and roster composition suggests that **Detroit isn't going to add a linebacker until the fifth-round or later**. Again, just my take, you're welcome to disagree, but the Lions have about four players who can loosely be considered "starting talents" in Anzalone, Barnes, Davis, and Board. Now, are they great starters? By no means. But the Rams haven't really needed that, instead preferring to find players that can fit clear roles and not break the bank allowing them to invest at more crucial positions like pass rushers (Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd, Von Miller) and in the secondary (Jalen Ramsey, drafted a multitude of other DBs as well).
I will also add a major caveat: This year has a very deep group of developmental linebackers. This is the first class where we are really starting to see the idea of modern linebackers becoming the norm, rather than the more traditional thumpers. So, while the valuation hasn't always been high, you could argue that there are more options that provide that value earlier than they consider the two-down thumpers to hold, and that could prompt them to add a linebacker fairly early.
I think I'd phrase it like this:
* My expectation is that the Lions won't address the ILB position until the fifth-round (5.177, 6.181, 6.217, 6.235)
* A selection of a linebacker in the third-round (3.66, 3.97) wouldn't surprise me.
* A selection of a linebacker earlier than that (1.02, 1.32, 2.34) would be *very* surprising.
Overall, I hope people can see how and why I am coming to that opinion, not merely because it is what I *want* to happen, but rather, a conclusion after trying to evaluate a handful of factors and criteria previously demonstrated.
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# Building a Profile for Who Fits?
Another thing I did was read thru multiple scouting reports on some of the guys the Rams drafted, and the college scouting reports on guys the Lions have signed, to try and identify some common themes. So let's discuss those and which 2022 prospects seem like natural fits there.
**Lions Need**
First thing to note here is what the Lions actually need. They tend to deploy two inside linebackers, a full-time backer who plays a little more traditional and downhill (MIKE), and then a coverage-oriented guy (WILL). With a switch to a 4-man front, I don't think that's going to change a ton, but if it does, it'd probably lead towards finding a bit more run-focused guy at the WILL spot. Not disregarding the pass coverage aspect, because adding someone like Chris Board implies they *want* that still, but just noting that going from a 3-4 to a 4-2 does remove a player from the front, meaning there's more run responsibility from the WILL linebacker.
With Derrick Barnes, Jarrad Davis, and Alex Anzalone, the Lions are likely set at the MIKE inside linebacker position, though Anzalone can double as an earlier down WILL, especially in a shift to a 4-man front. So lose depth chart like this:
|MIKE:|Alex Anzalone\*|Derrick Barnes|Jarrad Davis|Curtis Bolton|Anthony Pittman|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|WILL:|Alex Anzalone\*|Chris Board|Josh Woods|Shaun Dion Hamilton|Tavante Beckett|
Essentially, Anzalone can start wherever, especially early, and either Barnes or Board operates as the second starter depending on down, opposing scheme, etc. and then roles for Jarrad Davis and Josh Woods to see time, and likely be special teams contributors.
**Common Traits/Themes**
So there's two ways we need to go about this. The first is the themes for the *highly* valued linebackers (Rounds 1-3), and the second is the themes for the *lesser* valued linebackers (Rounds 4-7).
The early drafted ILBs tend to have a focus of:
* Elite athleticism is a priority. The RAS scores for these guys are all very high, such as Micah Parson's 9.59, Alex Anzalone's 8.03, Zack Baun's 7.85, Alec Ogletree's 7.24.
* Specifically **lateral quickness** is a common theme in these scouting reports. Guys who can change directions in a hurry and move side-to-side very well.
* Also a high value for their **instinctive ability, namely reacting in the box**.
* And of course, possess an ***elite*** **additional trait**, either as a pass rusher, blitzer, or coverage guy. Not someone who has the upside to be that, but someone who is.
* Important note here: Holmes' background shows a higher willingness to take guys early who are developmental about playing in the box, but not a willingness to take guys who are developmental about their additional elite trait.
* For example, Parsons and Ogletree were both new converts to the ILB position and thus, a little raw about the specifics of playing in the box, but Parsons *was* an exceptional blitzer and pass rusher, and Ogletree *was* an excellent coverage piece coming out of college.
* There is a difference there I hope people can understand.
As for the lesser valued ILBs, those tend to focus more on:
* Their ability to **play the run physically in the box**.
* **Tackling** becomes a major priority for the second-tier guys.
* **Football IQ** is a commonly mentioned trait for a lot of these guys, as is **leadership**.
* **Athleticism** remains a high(ish) concerns, but more flexible. For example...
* High athleticism: Micah Kiser (8.43), Derrick Barnes (8.42), Bryce Hager (7.62), Chris Board (7.02)
* Average athleticism: Dakota Allen (6.03), Mack Wilson (5.24), Clay Johnston (no RAS, but profiled as avg.)
* Low athleticism: Nico Johnson (4.08), Ramik Wilson (4.02), Josh Forrest (3.37)
With Holmes, he tends to go with higher athleticism, the lower numbers are more Dorsey's doing, but the lowest one (Forrest) did come from Holmes.
So here I am going to list some candidates who really fit well.
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# Good Fits // Early Investment
[Muma probably aligns with the estimated Lions checklist best. ](https://preview.redd.it/8w54zbkzojq81.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8f1edf84aa7f63cd2c4c4a75c09f03b32b6cee1)
First name up that fits the Lions profile is **Chad Muma** out of Wyoming. I think his tackling form is super inconsistent and could be an issue, but he fits very similarly to that mold of Alec Ogletree. Very polished and good in coverage, inconsistent technique inside the box, but the upside due to some elite athleticism (9.75 RAS) and great size to go with it at 6'3, 239 lbs. [Here's a link to Lance Zeirlein's profile on him.](https://www.nfl.com/prospects/chad-muma/32004d55-4d06-9215-fcf3-825af014060d) If Muma slide to the Lions at 3.66, that's the sort of high investment I think they'd have a hard time passing up, but otherwise, not sold on them drafting one early.
In a similar mold, Penn State linebacker **Brandon Smith** also fits that same mold, possessing elite coverage ability as a hang linebacker (similar to how the Lions like to use their coverage LB), and an absurdly impressive 9.98u RAS score. [Here's a link to Bleacher Report's profile on him.](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10021395-brandon-smith-nfl-draft-2022-scouting-report-for-penn-state-lb) Biggest issue is he's not great playing downhill according to multiple scouting reports, including my own.
The fit for FCS star **Troy Andersen** is a little murkier. He has that converted background that Holmes liked with Ogletree and Parsons, but like I said, doesn't have that elite, established trait to go along his development as an in-the-box linebacker. He's a former RB/QB, so he's very raw at just about everything. So he's a solid fit, but not a great fit. [Here's a link to The Draft Network's profile on him.](https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/troy-andersen/T42onfs21z)
I'd also add similar values for the two *other* Georgia linebackers, **Quay Walker** and **Channing Tindall**. I love Tindall's upside as a WILL linebacker next to Barnes long-term, but again, he doesn't exactly fit the early investment mold, as he's more of a well-rounded guy with some upside in coverage, but not exactly the instant caliber that you see with a Parsons or Ogletree type player. Walker probably fits better as a situational edge rusher, thanks to a tremendous blend of size (6'4, 241 lbs.) and athleticism (9.61 RAS), but the issue is it's hard to get a true gauge for his ability as an edge rusher because UGA rarely needed him to do that thanks to an embarrassment of riches with Azeez Ojulari, Nolan Smith, and Travon Walker in recent memory. So both solid, not great fits.
And you're probably wondering about the top two backers right? **Nakobe Dean** and **Devin Lloyd**? It's a weird dichotomy because Lloyd fits the profile a bit better, as a highly athletic (9.57 RAS) linebacker with excellent abilities blitzing and [rushing off the edge.](https://www.nfl.com/prospects/devin-lloyd/32004c4c-4f33-9464-66e8-761a50bda0c2) But he's a traditional MIKE, which means he overlaps with the less-needed position for Detroit. Dean fits the needs better (can play WILL), but doesn't really profile super well as an early investment piece, as his best abilities are in the box, and the upside is with the secondary tool. Add in some [lateral stiffness in his hips affecting change of direction,](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10021389-channing-tindall-nfl-draft-2022-scouting-report-for-georgia-lb) and the fit is inconsistent. So ultimately, great players, but also murky fits based on needs and profile.
Ultimately, if we are basing this solely on Detroit *needing* to find players who fit both the need and the profile, then Chad Muma and Brandon Smith are the only ones who pass *both* those tests with flying colors. Now as a side note, teams can break tendencies for elite talents, and I'm not arguing that Detroit *wouldn't* consider it, just saying there isn't anything in Holmes' background that really pushes them as options for fitting the standard mold (usually the safest bet!).
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# Good Fits // Later Investment
Now talking about later-round guys, the ones I'd suggest are more realistic options for Detroit.
LSU linebacker **Damone Clark** is an excellent fit for what the Lions are looking for, and also has a lot of connections to the Lions, whether via his time working with them at the Senior Bowl, or being coached by Lions' new ILB coach Kelvin Sheppard at LSU. However, [Clark is undergoing spinal fusion surgery](https://lionswire.usatoday.com/2022/03/24/2022-nfl-draft-prospect-damone-clark-lsu-injury-status-spinal-fusion-surgery/) which throws a serious wrench into his evaluation, and is overall a very crappy thing to hear. I reached out to a couple of sports science/doctors to ask their opinions on this sort of injury, and three of the four of them suggested that it is likely [far more serious than some are treating it,](https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2022/3/25/22995686/friday-open-thread-detroit-lions-consider-drafting-linebacker-lsu-damone-clark-2022-nfl-draft) as far as Clark's playing career. The gist of it is that when you have to fuse two vertebrae together it puts a lot of stress on the remaining ones, so that leaves you at massive risk for further fusions needed, or the risk of a hit separating the two fused vertebrae and risking horrible long-term effects. Not a doctor so that's just my takeaway from talking with some. Feel terrible for Clark, as it really looks like undrafted is the most likely scenario at this point, pending further specifics.
[Bernard could be a solid late-round option at WILL. ](https://preview.redd.it/cvrj1bjzujq81.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e28bea5aef4652ce2033cfa1d05eea19abbaaa3)
I mentioned him earlier, but one dude who fits *really* well for that later round profile is Baylor linebacker **Terrel Bernard**, a 6'1, 225 lbs. WILL linebacker who profiles as an [undersized sub-package nickel linebacker with special teams value on the next level".](https://www.nfl.com/prospects/terrel-bernard/32004245-5223-6424-136f-901f81674ee9) I watched two games, and tend to agree. His scouting reports all tend to list other promising factors like excellent leadership and character and work ethic. He tested as a good athlete (7.39 RAS) and also is a solid tackler and processor.
Indiana linebacker **Micah McFadden** also [fits the mold and profile for a MIKE linebacker](https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/micah-mcfadden) quite well as a Day 3 option. Similar to Derrick Barnes, he's physical and good in the box, and can offer *some* upside/usage as a situational pass rusher, but not a complete all-around piece, relegating him to the later rounds most likely.
[A&M linebacker Aaron Hansford profiles quite well for Detroit. ](https://preview.redd.it/l9qn2b6wujq81.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a1087b3360f5c56e0c46096029098630d95df8d)
One name that hasn't garnered much buzz but could is a player out of Dan Campbell's alma mater, A&M linebacker **Aaron Hansford**. He's a bit bigger (6'3, 240 lbs.) but has decent athleticism (7.54 RAS) and profiles a bit generically like Jarrad Davis, with great athleticism, blitzing, and upside, but a need to process things a little sharper to be useful. His coverage took a sizeable leap forward in 2021 according to PFF as well. Sharp tackler as well. Can hit with consistency and force. Probably a MIKE, but reminds me of Anzalone a bit.
Just some quicker bullets:
* Think UNC's **Jeremiah Gemmel** has a decent fit, with solid instincts, tackling, and coverage upside. Fits nicely as a WILL option on Day 3.
* Ole Miss' **Chance Campbell** really helped himself at the Combine with a 9.67 RAS in testing. Good size and ability in the box. Can possibly develop into starter and excellent special-teamer.
* Illinois' **Jake Hansen** reminds me a bit of Troy Reeder on film, profiling as a productive college LB who has a good feel for the game, but lacks the ability to be more than a two-down piece on the inside. Injury concerns though.
One to note/mention: Penei's brother **Nephi Sewell** could be an interesting addition as [nickel linebacker](https://www.nfl.com/prospects/nephi-sewell/32005345-5744-0460-78e0-ad2f28ed6cef) but not a great fit for the mold mentioned above as he's very bad in the box, and Detroit's tended to prefer a genuine slot cornerback or nickel safety rather than a "Space LB", so I don't think he'll actually garner much consideration unless the Lions are looking to change things while pursuing a feel-good story.
**Conclusion:** If you're reading this, thanks for sticking it out with me. This is a ton to digest, but been working on this project for a few weeks now. But I greatly appreciate it, and would love to answer any questions.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Kerby Joseph seems like a pretty good prospect for a third round compensatory. Athletic, ball hawk.Another extrovert a la Jamaal, lots of personality.
rockaction
Footballguy
I read the entire thing. I don't know if it was time I'll never get back or if I'm better prepared for my draft and free agency in my dynasty IDP league because I read it. I'm going to go with better off for having read it.
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massraider
Footballguy
Thought that pops into my head regarding Hutch and Jamo.
They both, to me, have high ceilings, but high floors as well. Hutch was the best DL in the country, and I'm reading some of that, "he's maxed out" stuff. He tested great, this is not a limited athlete. I think that's a good example of subconscious white athlete bias. No reason to think he cannot get better, and he already has technical skill.
Jamo, guys with speed like that don't bust out of the league. Feels like worst case, he's Hollywood Brown, which is still good. Disappointment, sure. But he's not gonna Jalen Raegor this thing.
It would be nice if Goff had a bigger arm, but speed isn't simply deep bombs. Anyone who thinks so hasn't been watching Tyreek Hill the last few years.
They both, to me, have high ceilings, but high floors as well. Hutch was the best DL in the country, and I'm reading some of that, "he's maxed out" stuff. He tested great, this is not a limited athlete. I think that's a good example of subconscious white athlete bias. No reason to think he cannot get better, and he already has technical skill.
Jamo, guys with speed like that don't bust out of the league. Feels like worst case, he's Hollywood Brown, which is still good. Disappointment, sure. But he's not gonna Jalen Raegor this thing.
It would be nice if Goff had a bigger arm, but speed isn't simply deep bombs. Anyone who thinks so hasn't been watching Tyreek Hill the last few years.
