3 WR's that are very even... (1 Viewer)

[clinton_c]

I have the 8th pick in a 12 team league. In most of the mocks I have ran in the 4th round, these 3 wideouts always seem to be there and at a point that their ADP suggest they should be taken.

ADP

4.03 Donald Driver

4.05 Lee Evans

4.03 Marques Colston

These guys seem to be the wideouts that you must choose from at the begging to middle of the 4th round.

Last year their average points per game (in my league). i used their points per game because Colston missed 2 games.

PPG

Driver-14.0

Evans- 13.6

Colston-13.3

As far as projections:

Driver 87.5 1,207 6.8 TDs 248.9

Evans 80.9 1,174 7.1 TDs 241.2

Colston 77.7 1,116 7.3 TDs 233.3

As far as injuries go Driver and Evans have consistantly been playing 16 game seasons. Colston missed 2 games with a bad sprain of the ankle.

As far as QBs:

Driver and Favre have been consistant. The only scary thought would be if GB was out of the race, and they started letting their young backup QB get some playing time during the fantasy playoffs.

Evans and Losman started really connecting late last year. Lee only scored 1 TD in his first 8 games, but Evans scored a TD in each of his last 4 games and scored 6 times in the final seven contest. That bolds well for Evans.

Colston plays with Drew Brees, so no worries there, however he only score 1 TD in his last 8 games (some due to injury).

In Conclusion:

Safe route: Driver (you know what you will get)

Lots of upside: Lee Evans (you have to think you will get what you got last year with the possibility for more)

homerun or strikeout: Marques Colston (was his year a fluke? Will he have problems with the top corner covering him? Did his injury make him a value pick in the 4th round? Lots of questions)

thoughts?

I think i would have to go with evans if I was drafting between the three.

 

[chris1969]

I'd probably go Evans, Driver Colsten, but I can see arguments for the reverse.

 

[Blackjacks]

Driver, Colston and then Evans.

 

[steinre1]

There is no way GB benches favre regardless of their situation. He has the consecutive game streak and this "could" be his last year. They wouldn't let him go out like that...having said that, I still take Evans. The upside compared to the other two is just too great to ignore. The only thing that would make me hesitate is the "JP" factor.

 

[LHUCKS]

Driver, Evans, Colston

 

[Double_J]

IMO, Driver is light years ahead of both of them. I wouldn't even think twice about that pick. Driver all the way.

 

[SSOG]

In my mind, this is a clear and easy case to rank. To make it a bit more scientific, I'll give a series of categories and rank the WRs 1, 2, and 3 in that category. At the end, I'll add up each WR's score, with the WR scoring lowest representing the best pick. Notice that my categories generally focus on the CHANGE from last year to this year, because I'm trying to identify how likely a player is to improve or regress. If a player's offense is going to be bad this year, that might represent a positive if it was TERRIBLE last year, because even that minimum improvement means more than a player playing in an offense that's going from Excellent to Very Good.

Category #1- Talent

1- Evans, 2- Colston, 3- Driver

In my opinion, this is the most important category, since talent always wins out over situation eventually. To me, Colston and Evans are both very close, but I give Evans the nod for two reasons. First off, he has produced with far worse supporting talent and despite facing far tougher coverages. Second off, he has a better pedigree (1st round compared to 7th round). Like I said, close, but I give the nod to Evans. As far as Driver goes... he's a mediocre #1 WR, talent-wise.

Category #2- History of Success

1- Driver, 2- Evans, 3- Colston

Pretty hard to argue with this, I think.

Category #3- Injury Risk

1- Evans, 2- Colston, 3- Driver

Evans has absolutely no injury history. Driver also has little injury history, but he's 32, and age makes players more susceptible. Colston faced nagging injuries for most of the latter half of last season.

Category #4- Consistency

1- Evans, 2- Colston, 3- Driver

I'm not talking about game-to-game consistency, but about target-to-target consistency. Evans averaged 9.43 yards per target and had a 60% catch%. Colston averaged 9.03 yards per target and a 61% catch%. Driver averaged 7.34 yards per target and had a 53% catch%- he only stayed afloat because he was second in the league in targets. Colston and Evans' superior per-target numbers means they likely have much higher floors this season.

Category #5- Change in likely number of targets

1- Evans, 2- Colston, 3- Driver

Evans and Colston both saw pretty much the same number of targets per game (~8.5 per game each), but Evans gets the edge because Colston has to split targets with Devery Henderson, Eric Johnson, and Reggie Bush, while Evans has to split targets with... well, Evans doesn't have to split targets. Driver, as I mentioned, was second in the league in number of targets- his number has pretty much nowhere to go but down.

Category #6- Change in offense/offensive system

1- Evans, 2- Driver, 3- Colston

Evans offense was BRUTAL last year (23rd in points, 29th in yards). It's the most likely of the bunch to improve, IMO. Driver's offense was mediocre (22nd in points, 10th in yards), which makes it most likely to hold steady. New Orleans' offense was superb (5th in points, 1st in yards), which makes it most likely to regress. If Buffalo is scoring more and New Orleans is scoring less, that likely means more TDs for Evans and fewer for Colston. Also, of the three QBs, I think Losman is the most likely to continue improving and Favre is the most likely to continue regressing.

Final score-

Evans- 7

Colston- 14

Driver- 15

Note that this makes it look like I have Colston and Driver ranked close, but in reality, Colston scores better in the categories I place more emphasis on (talent, consistency, likely change in targets), which means that I have him further ahead of Driver than the final tally would imply.

Summary:

Evans is a ridiculous talent who will be playing in a horrible offensive environment... but who has already proven that he can thrive in such an environment. He had the best yards per target and fantasy points per target last season, and is the most likely of the three (in my mind) to put up 170+ targets this year. His offensive scoring should be up, which should translate to an increase in TDs for Evans (whose TDs/Catch last year were a career low). Also, Evans has the advantage of youth (both for himself and his QB) which gives him a huge leg up on Driver. He also has a history of success that Colston doesn't have, which makes it less likely that Evans' performance last season was a fluke. I'm a massive Evans fan, and I wind up with him on a lot of my teams for pretty obvious reasons (read this year's and last year's player spotlights for more details ).

Colston is another ridiculous talent who looks like a future All-Pro. The only really big knocks on him are that last season, both he and New Orleans snuck up on people. I don't think NO is going to score as many points or get as many yards this year, and Colston has the most competition for targets, making him the least likely of the three to get 170+.

Driver is a guy I'm pretty lukewarm towards. Really, all of his value has derived from his insane target numbers last year, and he'll be very hard-pressed to keep up that pace. Of the three, he's the least talented, which means his value is the most tied to his situation... and that situation is a bit precarious, with the possibility that any of his teammates could step up and steal targets (which would wreck his value) or that his QB could go away or fall off a cliff. If any of that happens, I think that Driver could become a real disappointment. In fact, Driver has a lot of the same warning signs that Chambers was exhibiting before last season- huge number of targets, low points per target, mediocre talent. Suffice it to say, he's not a guy I'm going to wind up with very often.

 

[EBF]

I like Evans here, but couldn't fault you for taking Driver. Both are good players who should get a lot of targets. Evans gets the edge because he has more talent and less competition.

 

[LHUCKS]

Driver is a guy I'm pretty lukewarm towards. Really, all of his value has derived from his insane target numbers last year, and he'll be very hard-pressed to keep up that pace.

Why?

 

[North]

I hope you're listening to the consensus here. Driver is the pick. He is reliable (plays hurt), has a QB that like to sling the rock, plays for a team without a good running game and plays for a team that will be playing from behind often.

Much of this could apply to Evans but I give the edge to Driver b/c of Favre.

 

[SSOG]

Driver is a guy I'm pretty lukewarm towards. Really, all of his value has derived from his insane target numbers last year, and he'll be very hard-pressed to keep up that pace.

Why?

Regression to the mean. Anybody who leads the league in a category in year N is unlikely to lead the league again in that same category in year N+1.More specifically, here are all of the WRs who had 170+ targets since 2000, as well as how many targets they had in Year N+1Player (year) - Year N Targets - Year N+1 TargetsRod Smith (2000) - 174 - 171Rod Smith (2001) - 171 - 147Jimmy Smith (2001) - 176 - 138David Boston (2001) - 175 - 75Keyshawn Johnson (2001) - 180 - 140Marvin Harrison (2002) - 205 - 142Randy Moss (2002) - 186 - 172Eric Moulds (2002) - 179 - 121Randy Moss (2003) - 172 - 86Torry Holt (2003) - 183 - 137Anquan Boldin (2005) - 171 - 152Average: 179.3 targets in year N, 134.6 targets in year N+1, 25% reduction in targets.That's 11 seasons of 170+ targets. Twice the player managed to repeat the target numbers, twice the player failed to crack 100 targets, and the remaining 7 times, the player had between 121 and 152 targets. The players with 170+ targets last year were Torry Holt (179) and Donald Driver (173). It's a very, very high plateau, and historically not one that is easily reached even once, let alone in back-to-back seasons.If you want to expand the sample size, we can look at WRs with 160-169 targets during that span. That will add the following data points:Marvin Harrison (2000) - 169 - 164Eric Moulds (2000) - 164 - 135Terry Glenn (2000) - 163 - 24Marvin Harrison (2001) - 164 - 205Hines Ward (2002) - 160 - 157Torry Holt (2002) - 160 - 183Marty Booker (2002) - 167 - 105Anquan Boldin (2003) - 165 - 104Muhsin Muhammad (2004) - 160 - 136Chad Johnson (2004) - 169 - 155Laveranues Coles (2004) - 168 - 131Larry Fitzgerald (2005) - 165 - 111Plaxico Burress (2005) - 166 - 121Chris Chambers (2005) - 166 - 153The only WR to make this last last year was Andre Johnson. Anyway, looking at the data, the only players who have received 160+ targets in year N+1 are Marvin Harrison and Torry Holt. The only players to receive 150+ targets in year N+1 are Harrison, Holt, Hines Ward, Chad Johnson, and (oddly enough), Chris Chambers. Meanwhile, all of the other WRs (Moulds, Glenn, Booker, Boldin, Muhammad, Coles, Fitz, Burress) posted 136 targets or fewer. I'd contend that Driver is probably a lot closer, talent-wise, to Moulds/Coles/Muhammad than he is to Harrison/Holt/Chad Johnson. As a result, the odds of him getting more than 150 targets next season certainly do not look good. If we were to project last season's Yards Per Target out over 135 targets, Driver would finish the season with 991 yards receiving.

 

[Gadfly]

I hope you're listening to the consensus here. Driver is the pick. He is reliable (plays hurt), has a QB that like to sling the rock, plays for a team without a good running game and plays for a team that will be playing from behind often.Much of this could apply to Evans but I give the edge to Driver b/c of Favre.

Where do you see that consensus? Four of the seven in front of you picked Evans.

 

[clinton_c]

Wow great stuff in this thread...I love it. These are the type of threads that I hope to see over the next month.

I guess it does show how close these guys are considering many have differing opinions.

 

[DocNiner52]

3 keeper league. I kept Gore, James and Portis. I won the league last year so I had the 1.12(4.12 actually) pick. The guy right in front of me took Colston so I was considering Driver, Walker and Evans. I really like Evans this year but he has a tough schedule. Could be good for him though since they'll probably be behind a lot and have to throw. Anyway, pick 1.12 I went Driver. He's been consistant and a safe pick. My team last year that I won with I had Holt, Driver, Colston and Furrey. So with the 2.01 pick I went Javon Walker. I'm sencond guessing why I didn't take Evans but I'm satisfied with Walker. Losman's QB play scares me a little. Yes he improved last year but with his schedule will he regress? I don't know and I didn't want to take the chance.Cutler is even more inexperienced than Losman but I like him playing better this year than Losman. Another point hurting Evans is you don't know how rookie Marshawn Lynch is going to perform. Just too many question marks on the Bills for me to take Evans over Walker. The Broncos got Travis Henry and we all know how Denver rb's have fared over the past. If their running game really takes off this year it could hurt the passing game some but I'm banking on the Broncos scoring pretty good this year and I believe Walker will be a recipient of the scoring surge if you want to call it that. With your siutation though take Driver for sure and thenI'd take Colston. Some think he'll have a soph jinx but I don't think so. They're a good offense and Colston will get plenty of opportunities. I like Colston's potential upside a little better than Evans. Evans is the better receiver but may not put up as good of numbers as Colston this year. Just my

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Here's the difference between the three. Donald Driver can be good to really good. Lee Evans can be good to great. Marques Colston can be really good to the #1 wide receiver in 2007. He would have been top 5 last seasons except he suffered one of the worst injuries in football imaginable which is the high ankle sprain. It may say that he played in 14 games but he was really only right in about 12 of them. When he was healthy I don't think any wide receiver was better last year.

Plus there's no question he has the best quarterback of the 3 in Drew Brees. He'll be able to get him the ball more consistently than the other qbs are able to with their wrs. I like that the Saints are at worst the second best offense in the NFL. More points=more touchdowns for Colston. I like that there are other options on the field for the Saints. There aren't too many though. Just enough to keep teams guessing. Greed isn't always a good thing in fantasy football.

I'd probably draft Colston in the 3rd round but if he's there in the 4th, then all the better. Lee Evans and Donald Driver aren't bad but they aren't even with Marques Colston. Of those two I'd rather have Lee Evans because when JP Losman started to "get it" so to speak Evans benefitted greatly. Driver's good but I think last season may have been a career year. I like where's he's getting drafted though.

 

[jerseyh8r]

SSOG

 

[bcr8f]

The last 2 years Favre didn't have a #2 WR. First Walker went out game one and then Jennings did last year week 5.

While double teamed he still put up top 10 numbers.

This year he has Jennings, James Jones and probably KRob week 4.

How will this affect Driver?

He could get fewer looks but with single coverage he could get more receptions. He has been remarkably consistent the last 5 years. The one exception was his serious injury year.

Here's the difference between the three. Donald Driver can be good to really good. Lee Evans can be good to great. Marques Colston can be really good to the #1 wide receiver in 2007. He would have been top 5 last seasons except he suffered one of the worst injuries in football imaginable which is the high ankle sprain. It may say that he played in 14 games but he was really only right in about 12 of them. When he was healthy I don't think any wide receiver was better last year.

Last year Driver was top 5 in receptions and yards.If Jennings hadn't gotten hurt he was on a 1100 yard 10 TD pace and possibly ROY.

Why does Driver always get disrespected?

Ranking

2002 GB 16 8 1064 10

2003 GB 15 621 51 (ranking because he was hurt)

2004 GB 16 3 1208 10

2005 GB 16 2 1221 13

2006 GB 16 7 1295 5

 

[ramsfan]

Driver >>>Evans>Colston

 

[Sabertooth]

I have the 8th pick in a 12 team league. In most of the mocks I have ran in the 4th round, these 3 wideouts always seem to be there and at a point that their ADP suggest they should be taken.

ADP

4.03 Donald Driver

4.05 Lee Evans

4.03 Marques Colston

These guys seem to be the wideouts that you must choose from at the begging to middle of the 4th round.

Last year their average points per game (in my league). i used their points per game because Colston missed 2 games.

PPG

Driver-14.0

Evans- 13.6

Colston-13.3

As far as projections:

Driver 87.5 1,207 6.8 TDs 248.9

Evans 80.9 1,174 7.1 TDs 241.2

Colston 77.7 1,116 7.3 TDs 233.3

As far as injuries go Driver and Evans have consistantly been playing 16 game seasons. Colston missed 2 games with a bad sprain of the ankle.

As far as QBs:

Driver and Favre have been consistant. The only scary thought would be if GB was out of the race, and they started letting their young backup QB get some playing time during the fantasy playoffs.

Evans and Losman started really connecting late last year. Lee only scored 1 TD in his first 8 games, but Evans scored a TD in each of his last 4 games and scored 6 times in the final seven contest. That bolds well for Evans.

Colston plays with Drew Brees, so no worries there, however he only score 1 TD in his last 8 games (some due to injury).

In Conclusion:

Safe route: Driver (you know what you will get)

Lots of upside: Lee Evans (you have to think you will get what you got last year with the possibility for more)

homerun or strikeout: Marques Colston (was his year a fluke? Will he have problems with the top corner covering him? Did his injury make him a value pick in the 4th round? Lots of questions)

thoughts?

I think i would have to go with evans if I was drafting between the three.

This won't happen. Favre is a legend in Green Bay. He won't come out for Rodgers for any significant amount of time. I think the Packers will be better than last season but their record will be about the same at 8-8. Which means they will be in the wild card hunt right up to the end.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

The last 2 years Favre didn't have a #2 WR. First Walker went out game one and then Jennings did last year week 5.

While double teamed he still put up top 10 numbers.

This year he has Jennings, James Jones and probably KRob week 4.

How will this affect Driver?

He could get fewer looks but with single coverage he could get more receptions. He has been remarkably consistent the last 5 years. The one exception was his serious injury year.

Here's the difference between the three. Donald Driver can be good to really good. Lee Evans can be good to great. Marques Colston can be really good to the #1 wide receiver in 2007. He would have been top 5 last seasons except he suffered one of the worst injuries in football imaginable which is the high ankle sprain. It may say that he played in 14 games but he was really only right in about 12 of them. When he was healthy I don't think any wide receiver was better last year.

Last year Driver was top 5 in receptions and yards.If Jennings hadn't gotten hurt he was on a 1100 yard 10 TD pace and possibly ROY.

Why does Driver always get disrespected?

Ranking

2002 GB 16 8 1064 10

2003 GB 15 621 51 (ranking because he was hurt)

2004 GB 16 3 1208 10

2005 GB 16 2 1221 13

2006 GB 16 7 1295 5

So what that tells me is that with the exception of last season when everything went right for him, Donald Driver has been ranked 10th (barely at that) or worse. He was top 5 last season. Big deal. Receivers as a whole sucked last year. He's 32 years old now so I'm supposed to expect him to get better? Nope.I never said that Donald Driver was a bad player. If you'll read what you quoted I said he's good to very good. But his upside is frankly nil. Brett Favre is getting older and worse as a quarterback. Ahman Green is gone. So I think the Packers offense will be worse than last season. And now the team has more receiving targets for that worse offense? These are all negatives in my opinion. For a 32 year old decent wide receiver in Donald Driver much more so. He's a good player and he should have a good season but not as good as Lee Evans and I'm damn sure not as good as Marques Colston.

 

[TheWick]

Evans, Colston, Driver

Evans is primed for his breakout.

Colston should continue building on last season, and is in a GREAT offense.

Driver consistent but has reached his peak and will begin to regress. Jennings will be in this conversation next year.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Driver,Colston,Evans (to tinker to chance!!!!)

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Driver, Evans, Colston

Bearish on Colston?

 

[Doug Drinen]

SSOG, don't you think Driver's low catch percentage might be tied to his high number of targets?

In 2004, he had a 63% catch percentage and was a top 10 receiver with only 134 targets.

2004: Walker on the other side, low targets, high efficiency = top 10 WR

2006: no WR2 support, high targets, low efficiency = top 10 WR

I didn't watch many Packer games last year, but I'd bet that a whole lot more of Driver's targets were actually catchable in 2004 than in 2006.

 

[Routilla]

I like Driver among those 3 but I think Jennings may be the value pick in GB. I don't like the WR2 in either N.O. or BUF. If a good RB was there I would go RB and wait for Jennings later.

 

[PahtyTom]

Evans and Driver both have very high floors, but Evans ceiling is much higher IMO.

 

[burd]

here's why you must take Driver over the others ... Favre's a gun-slinger and GB can't run. Favre's going to be throwing 30+ passes every week. I predict Driver 80+ passes for Driver this year.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

Category #3- Injury Risk1- Evans, 2- Colston, 3- DriverEvans has absolutely no injury history. Driver also has little injury history, but he's 32, and age makes players more susceptible. Colston faced nagging injuries for most of the latter half of last season.

Great post. But one correction: Lee Evans had a serious ACL injury in college that forced him to miss what would have been his Senior year (he got a medical redshirt so he was able to play the next year).

 

[Jason Wood]

I have them Evans (WR8), Driver (WR11) and Colston (WR15)...with 172 FPTS, 168 FPTS and 160 FPTS, respectively.

Driver is the surest thing, as you said. He's been a top-12 fantasy receiver in myriad conditions; but Favre's degradation, Jennings' promise and Driver's drops are enough to make me slot him in the 2nd tier of WR1s. Evans was stellar in supoptimal conditions and, unless you think the Bills defense is going to surprise (I don't), he's sure to be among the most targeted receivers in the league. Colston isn't going to surprise anyone this year, nor do I see the Saints matching last year's total offensive output. He's a guy I would be uncomfortable with as my WR1 but would be happy to have him as my second WR in a redraft league, without question.

 

[Dancing Bear]

For me it boils down to picking either Driver or Evans ...

Both teams are a mess at RB ...

I see them finishing with less than 1 ppg difference between them at the end of the season, but I give Driver the nod because I'm not sold on either Losman or the Buffalo Offense and I don't like Evans' potential inconsistency [this is likely not to be his fault!].

I see this following things working for Driver.

a) Driver being more consistent week-in, week-out with less deviation with respect to looks, catches and yards [Driver had lower standard deviations in all receiver categories compared to Evans last year].

b) Last year Driver had only 5 games with less than 10 targets. Evans had 10 games with less than 10 targets.

c) Driver had more games where he scored between 7.5 and 17.5 points; 10 compared to 8 for Evans.

d) Evans had 3 games with 2.5 points or less; Driver had 1 game.

It really depends upon your ability to take the risk and stand by it.

 

[trollmonger]

I like Evans the most. He has the most upside. I still have some questions about the rest of the Bill's offense but none about Evans himself. And I think the rest of the O is getting better too. Losman seems to be getting it. I like Lynch better than McGahee (maybe not to start the year but by mid season at least). And the OL has improved. Still because of the other parts, Evans may have some poor games but will blow up in others.

I like Driver too but he's getting older. So is Favre. Driver is the classic overachiever IMO. He's good but works hard to be be very good. Because of his hard work and experience, his floor is probably higher than the others but because of his talent level, his ceiling isn't as high.

I'm still forming an opinion on Colston. Great rookie year. Great offense. Talented. But can he do it again? I'm not doubting him but given the choice, I'd go with one of the other two.

 

[Desert_Power]

Stats before Jennings got banged up:

Jennings,Greg GB 20 364 3

Driver,Donald GB 26 343 1

Might be something worth keeping an eye on in camp. If Jennings is back in form, why would you suggest that he would be less productive than in his pre-injury games? He will surely cut into Driver's touches for the year.

 

[bcr8f]

Stats before Jennings got banged up: Jennings,Greg GB 20 364 3 Driver,Donald GB 26 343 1 Might be something worth keeping an eye on in camp. If Jennings is back in form, why would you suggest that he would be less productive than in his pre-injury games? He will surely cut into Driver's touches for the year.

Possibly except that in 2004-Driver 84 1208 9 tD'sWalker 89 1382 12 TD'sThey both did well. Word is Jennings is back to form and has a stronger ankle(from working out). Favre threw for 3885 yards and there is room for more than one WR. Having two may help each one(no double teams) do better. James Jones could cut into their numbers though.

 

[SSOG]

Here's the difference between the three. Donald Driver can be good to really good. Lee Evans can be good to great. Marques Colston can be really good to the #1 wide receiver in 2007. He would have been top 5 last seasons except he suffered one of the worst injuries in football imaginable which is the high ankle sprain. It may say that he played in 14 games but he was really only right in about 12 of them. When he was healthy I don't think any wide receiver was better last year.

I think Evans is more likely to finish #1 overall than Colston is. As I said, it boils down to targets- I think Evans is more likely to get 170+ targets than Colston is. Besides, you're ignoring floors- of the three, Colston is the most likely go just curl up and die, a la Michael Clayton. He's the guy who faced injury issues last year, and he's the guy with the least history of success (so his last season was more likely to be a fluke than Drivers' or Evans').

Why does Driver always get disrespected?

I know this is a rhetorical question, but I hate it when people add rhetorical questions into a thread to try to strengthen their point when the question has already been answered. Asking this rhetorical question suggests that there is little to no reason to disrespect Donald Driver. Not only is there plenty of reason to "disrespect" Driver (he's old, only moderately talented, had the lowest yards per target of the bunch by far, is the most likely to see a dramatic decline in number of targets, and is the most dependent on his surrounding cast for his success), but I've already outlined those myriad reasons in this very thread.

SSOG, don't you think Driver's low catch percentage might be tied to his high number of targets?

Not really. I've done research on the subject that I could dig up somewhere, but I found that going from WR2 on an offense to WR1 on an offense does not historically lead to a reduction in catch%, even though it results in an increase in targets and tougher coverages. In fact, most WRs I looked at saw an increase in catch% when they became WR1s. I think catch% is more related to the quality of the QB (to some extent) and the routes a WR is running than it is to the type of coverage he's facing... At this point in his career, it's hard to argue that Brett Favre is going to be better this year than he was last year, and I haven't seen anyone suggest that Donald Driver's role in the offense will be any different. There might be some rebound in his catch%, just because these sort of things do tend to rebound back and forth, but that's not even the point. I mentioned catch% in passing, but I'm more concerned with yards per target and points per target (since both of those stats naturally include catch% while integrating details like where the targets are occurring on the field). In that respect, even in Driver's best season (2004), he had 8.75 yards per target- well short of Evans' and Colston's figures last year. Again, there might be some rebound, but Driver will almost certainly be behind Evans and Colston when it comes to value per target, so if he loses his dramatic target advantage (as I expect him to), that means he's going to fall behind them in actual value, as well.

 

[SSOG]

I see this following things working for Driver.

a) Driver being more consistent week-in, week-out with less deviation with respect to looks, catches and yards [Driver had lower standard deviations in all receiver categories compared to Evans last year].

b) Last year Driver had only 5 games with less than 10 targets. Evans had 10 games with less than 10 targets.

c) Driver had more games where he scored between 7.5 and 17.5 points; 10 compared to 8 for Evans.

d) Evans had 3 games with 2.5 points or less; Driver had 1 game.

It really depends upon your ability to take the risk and stand by it.

B explains A, C, and D, in my opinion. Driver didn't have fewer low-target games because he was more consistent, he had fewer low-target games because he had more total targets (just like an RB with 160 points is more likely to have fewer 10+ point games than an RB with 320 points, even if he's more consistent). The question now remains whether you think that Driver will keep that marked target advantage this year.

 

[bostonfred]

I like Evans the most. He has the most upside. I still have some questions about the rest of the Bill's offense but none about Evans himself. And I think the rest of the O is getting better too. Losman seems to be getting it. I like Lynch better than McGahee (maybe not to start the year but by mid season at least). And the OL has improved. Still because of the other parts, Evans may have some poor games but will blow up in others.I like Driver too but he's getting older. So is Favre. Driver is the classic overachiever IMO. He's good but works hard to be be very good. Because of his hard work and experience, his floor is probably higher than the others but because of his talent level, his ceiling isn't as high.I'm still forming an opinion on Colston. Great rookie year. Great offense. Talented. But can he do it again? I'm not doubting him but given the choice, I'd go with one of the other two.

Yup.