John Bender
Footballguy
My fantasy baseball blog last year was pretty successful. Not in terms of traffic but just in terms of me keeping it updated from February until November.
I've reinvented and retooled the entire thing and cranked it back up today and buried the old one.
Right now doing a feature of each team and their main fantasy players. With some FA players still out there, there are some loose ends but I don't usually start my projections until mid February so this is just a broad view of each teams roster as constituted right now and where the fantasy values is.
Point being: I'd like to get some discussion going and possibly respond to each team's post with discussion generated and this is the best audience for intelligent baseball talk.
So I'll post the teams here each day and feel free to discuss, call me out, tell me I'm wrong, whatever the case my be. This isn't a timschochet exercise in narcissism, it's simply because I love discussing fantasy baseball.
Note: it's formatted a lot more clearly on the blog itself. I'm not trying to drive traffic, I do this more as a self exercise every year, so if you are interested enough to want the link I can post it. Otherwise I'll PM individually to those who express any care.
1-11-2012: Baltimore Orioles
The Cream of The Crop:
Catcher: Matt Wieters: Relatively speaking he’s the cream of the crop when you look at the Orioles offensive roster. His numbers are trending upwards in his 3 seasons in the majors and I expect him to take the next step in 2012 at a position typically designated as a fantasy albatross.
Certainly we expected more from Wieters based on his eye-popping minor league stats, but Wieters has failed to live up to the hype in his first years in the majors. I’m projecting his upswing to continue and when my projections are completed in February will have him coming in somewhere around .275, 26 HRs, 77 RBIs, 82 Runs Scored. In AL-only leagues, he should be one of the first catchers drafted.
Outfielder: Adam Jones: I think Adam is ready to be part of the Top 15 Outfield tier permanently. He’s 26 years old and showed marked improvement in 2011 raising his HR, RBI and SB numbers from 2010. He’s trending upwards and a 30-15 season with a serviceable batting average is possible. One area he is not on the verge of elite is his OPS. Leagues using OPS as a 6th offensive category may want to drop him in their rankings, but he should be one of top outfielders off of the board otherwise (especially in AL-only leagues).
The Next Tier:
First Baseman: Mark Reynolds: Reynolds is just hitting his prime and if you’re looking for power at 3B, he’s a great mid-level option after the top names are gone. 40 HRs and 100 RBIs are absolutely attainable. Unfortunately you may be suffering his batting average hanging around the Mendoza Line as he is still averaging 217 strikeouts per 162 games. If you’ve got a high batting average guy in your pocket by Round 3 that can off-set Reynolds poor AVG, he’s a great grab.
Outfielder: Nick Markakis: Nick never developed into the upper tier outfielder I thought he might but I still have him in the next tier as far as Orioles go because he won’t hurt you in any one category. You can expect an .800 OPS; you can expect a Batting Average at .280-.290 and he still has some nice pop with around a baker’s dozen of homeruns. Even at the age of 28, it doesn’t look like he’ll ever take the leap into elite, but he’s a solid option that’s not going to be a drain on any of your roto categories.
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy: I debated throwing Hardy into my “Cream of the Crop” just for the simple fact that he provided 30 homeruns in 2011 at a position that’s typically devoid of power. That said, I’d like to see him put it together in back to back years. Hardy only slugged 17 homeruns combined in 2009 and 2010 so forgive me for being skeptical of his 2011 power outburst. I think he carries a lot of risk given his career BA of .264 but if you’re strapped for options at SS come Round 7 or 8, Hardy can be your guy if you can deal with his extremely streaky nature and weeks on end of batting .200 with only a homerun or two.
The Rest:
Starting Pitcher: Jeremy Guthrie: He’s probably closer to the bottom of the barrel in mixed leagues but he’s tossed over 200 innings each of the last 3 years and showed some signs of life in 2010 with a 1.16 WHIP and 3.83 ERA. I wouldn’t put my season on his shoulders, but I’d take him as a 5th or 6th option on a fantasy squad and stream according to his matchups.
Outfielder: Nolan Reimold: Fine as a backup plan, but the plate appearances aren’t enough to translate to a season long power helper. Someone to have on your watch list if one of the BAL OFers go down.
Outfielder: Vladimir Guerrero: He’s not the old Vladdy, but he’s still not going to hurt you as a 5th OF option with a respectable batting average. Not useful for much other than keeping your BA above water.
Second Baseman: Brian Roberts: Truthfully, I’m not sure if Roberts belongs in the Bottom of the Barrel or not because he battled concussion symptoms all season long. He was reportedly 2 weeks free of symptoms towards the end of the season and activated off of the DL but at age 34, one would think his main value (speed) will decline. Possible flyer option for those strapped at 2B. Watch him early in the season though. If he struggles, don’t hesitate sending him to waivers.
Second Baseman: Robert Andino: If Roberts continues to suffer from post concussion syndrome, Andino is your starting second basemen in Baltimore and will have no problems snagging a few bags for your fantasy team if you are in need of deep speed options.
Bottom of the Barrel:
Third Baseman: Chris Davis: Davis came out hot in May with a .286 AVG and 3 homeruns trying to rekindle his status as a top prospect but battled injuries the rest of the season. His sports hernia surgery is behind him and he will likely platoon at 3B in 2012. Keep an eye on him but don’t expect much. Draftable in uber-deep AL-only leagues exclusively.
Starting Pitcher: Brian Matusz: What a nightmare season after coming into the year as a top pick breakout candidate. Matusz battled control issues all season long and spent considerable time in AAA. When all was said and done his major league ERA was an obscene 10.69! Stay away until he regains some semblance of command of his pitches.
Relief Pitcher: Kevin Gregg: Despite the 22 saves Gregg had an awful 2011. You can draft him if you need some saves and have latitude to work within your ERA budget, but I wouldn’t count on him to hold the job all season if he struggles again and he is a historical WHIP killer as well when you measure him up to other closers. Pass
Starting Pitcher: Zach Britton and Jake Arietta: Both showed some brief flashes of being serviceable before injuries and inconsistencies caught up. Guys I would watch but not draft outside of deep AL-only contests.
I've reinvented and retooled the entire thing and cranked it back up today and buried the old one.
Right now doing a feature of each team and their main fantasy players. With some FA players still out there, there are some loose ends but I don't usually start my projections until mid February so this is just a broad view of each teams roster as constituted right now and where the fantasy values is.
Point being: I'd like to get some discussion going and possibly respond to each team's post with discussion generated and this is the best audience for intelligent baseball talk.
So I'll post the teams here each day and feel free to discuss, call me out, tell me I'm wrong, whatever the case my be. This isn't a timschochet exercise in narcissism, it's simply because I love discussing fantasy baseball.
Note: it's formatted a lot more clearly on the blog itself. I'm not trying to drive traffic, I do this more as a self exercise every year, so if you are interested enough to want the link I can post it. Otherwise I'll PM individually to those who express any care.
1-11-2012: Baltimore Orioles
The Cream of The Crop:
Catcher: Matt Wieters: Relatively speaking he’s the cream of the crop when you look at the Orioles offensive roster. His numbers are trending upwards in his 3 seasons in the majors and I expect him to take the next step in 2012 at a position typically designated as a fantasy albatross.
Certainly we expected more from Wieters based on his eye-popping minor league stats, but Wieters has failed to live up to the hype in his first years in the majors. I’m projecting his upswing to continue and when my projections are completed in February will have him coming in somewhere around .275, 26 HRs, 77 RBIs, 82 Runs Scored. In AL-only leagues, he should be one of the first catchers drafted.
Outfielder: Adam Jones: I think Adam is ready to be part of the Top 15 Outfield tier permanently. He’s 26 years old and showed marked improvement in 2011 raising his HR, RBI and SB numbers from 2010. He’s trending upwards and a 30-15 season with a serviceable batting average is possible. One area he is not on the verge of elite is his OPS. Leagues using OPS as a 6th offensive category may want to drop him in their rankings, but he should be one of top outfielders off of the board otherwise (especially in AL-only leagues).
The Next Tier:
First Baseman: Mark Reynolds: Reynolds is just hitting his prime and if you’re looking for power at 3B, he’s a great mid-level option after the top names are gone. 40 HRs and 100 RBIs are absolutely attainable. Unfortunately you may be suffering his batting average hanging around the Mendoza Line as he is still averaging 217 strikeouts per 162 games. If you’ve got a high batting average guy in your pocket by Round 3 that can off-set Reynolds poor AVG, he’s a great grab.
Outfielder: Nick Markakis: Nick never developed into the upper tier outfielder I thought he might but I still have him in the next tier as far as Orioles go because he won’t hurt you in any one category. You can expect an .800 OPS; you can expect a Batting Average at .280-.290 and he still has some nice pop with around a baker’s dozen of homeruns. Even at the age of 28, it doesn’t look like he’ll ever take the leap into elite, but he’s a solid option that’s not going to be a drain on any of your roto categories.
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy: I debated throwing Hardy into my “Cream of the Crop” just for the simple fact that he provided 30 homeruns in 2011 at a position that’s typically devoid of power. That said, I’d like to see him put it together in back to back years. Hardy only slugged 17 homeruns combined in 2009 and 2010 so forgive me for being skeptical of his 2011 power outburst. I think he carries a lot of risk given his career BA of .264 but if you’re strapped for options at SS come Round 7 or 8, Hardy can be your guy if you can deal with his extremely streaky nature and weeks on end of batting .200 with only a homerun or two.
The Rest:
Starting Pitcher: Jeremy Guthrie: He’s probably closer to the bottom of the barrel in mixed leagues but he’s tossed over 200 innings each of the last 3 years and showed some signs of life in 2010 with a 1.16 WHIP and 3.83 ERA. I wouldn’t put my season on his shoulders, but I’d take him as a 5th or 6th option on a fantasy squad and stream according to his matchups.
Outfielder: Nolan Reimold: Fine as a backup plan, but the plate appearances aren’t enough to translate to a season long power helper. Someone to have on your watch list if one of the BAL OFers go down.
Outfielder: Vladimir Guerrero: He’s not the old Vladdy, but he’s still not going to hurt you as a 5th OF option with a respectable batting average. Not useful for much other than keeping your BA above water.
Second Baseman: Brian Roberts: Truthfully, I’m not sure if Roberts belongs in the Bottom of the Barrel or not because he battled concussion symptoms all season long. He was reportedly 2 weeks free of symptoms towards the end of the season and activated off of the DL but at age 34, one would think his main value (speed) will decline. Possible flyer option for those strapped at 2B. Watch him early in the season though. If he struggles, don’t hesitate sending him to waivers.
Second Baseman: Robert Andino: If Roberts continues to suffer from post concussion syndrome, Andino is your starting second basemen in Baltimore and will have no problems snagging a few bags for your fantasy team if you are in need of deep speed options.
Bottom of the Barrel:
Third Baseman: Chris Davis: Davis came out hot in May with a .286 AVG and 3 homeruns trying to rekindle his status as a top prospect but battled injuries the rest of the season. His sports hernia surgery is behind him and he will likely platoon at 3B in 2012. Keep an eye on him but don’t expect much. Draftable in uber-deep AL-only leagues exclusively.
Starting Pitcher: Brian Matusz: What a nightmare season after coming into the year as a top pick breakout candidate. Matusz battled control issues all season long and spent considerable time in AAA. When all was said and done his major league ERA was an obscene 10.69! Stay away until he regains some semblance of command of his pitches.
Relief Pitcher: Kevin Gregg: Despite the 22 saves Gregg had an awful 2011. You can draft him if you need some saves and have latitude to work within your ERA budget, but I wouldn’t count on him to hold the job all season if he struggles again and he is a historical WHIP killer as well when you measure him up to other closers. Pass
Starting Pitcher: Zach Britton and Jake Arietta: Both showed some brief flashes of being serviceable before injuries and inconsistencies caught up. Guys I would watch but not draft outside of deep AL-only contests.
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