32 backfields....what will they look like.... (1 Viewer)

[Fumbleweed]

Here are some initial projections, although it's too early in some respects to speculate. Still, it's fun to do......Buffalo- McGahee will still be featured. Miami- Williams and Brown will again split carries like they did this yearNew England- Dillon will be retained and the Pats will add another back to groom for 2007. Faulk will continue to be the back in passing situations. New York Jets- Martin will be in a platoon situation with someone new. Maybe a rookie or a free agent. Baltimore- Chester Taylor will be re-signed to a solid, but modest contract and given a year to see if he can be featured. Cincinnati- Rudi will remain the featured back with Perry spelling him for 6-10 carries a game. Cleveland- Droughns will be featured. Pittsburgh- Willie Parker will split time with another RB (Bettis-like). Jamal Lewis maybe??Houston- Reggie Bush will get the bulk of the carries as a rookie. Domanick Davis will be dealt on draft day for a third rounder. Indianapolis- Will look to add a versatile RB like Domanick Davis or Ahman Green. Edge will go elsewhere. Jacksonville- I look for Edgerrin James to wind up here. Taylor will be released and Greg Jones will continue to get some carries. Tennessee- Chris Brown will again be featured with at least one RB brought in to compete with he and Henry (if Henry is retained).Denver- Committee approach for one more year. If Bell does not become a prime featured back by season's end, they will look to add a solid RB in 2007.Kansas City- Larry Johnson will be featured. How can he not be?Oakland- Lamont Jordan will be featured. San Diego- LaDainian Tomlinson will be featured. Dallas- Julius Jones will be featured with Barber again vulturing some goal-line carries. NY Giants- Tiki Barber will be featured. Philadelphia- Westbrook and Moats will be the primary RB tandem as Philly addresses other needs in the offseason.Washington- Portis will be featured with Betts stealing some carries. Chicago- Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson will split carries. If Benson looks good, the Bears will have to make a decision after 2006 about who to continue with.Detroit- Kevin Jones will be featured (can he stay healthy?)Green Bay- I think Green Bay is in prime position to snag a top RB in the draft. Gado is a nice story, but they need more from the position. Minnesota- Another team who will look to add a RB in the draft....maybe someone who can platoon with Bennett or Moore...or maybe a feature back. Atlanta- Warrick Dunn will be featured with a veteran brought in to compete with him for some of his carries. They won't want Dunn to go over 20 carries a game very much. Carolina- I think Foster will be retained. Some think Carolina will draft a RB high or acquire a solid free agent....I see other needs as more pressing. New Orleans- McAllister will be featured provided he is healthy. Tampa Bay- Cadillac will be featured.Arizona- New RB needed. Someone who can run between the tackles...with Dennis Green's history, a first round pick is a big possibility. St. Louis- Steven Jackson will be featured. San Francisco- I think it will be a committee approach again as SF has other needs more pressing than RB to address in the off-season.Seattle- I think Alexander re-signs and is featured. If for some reason, he doesn't, I could see Alexander in Jacksonville or Minnesota and Seattle would likely try out Morris + a veteran complement (Fred Taylor?). Any thoughts on how it will all shake out?

 

[Autumn Wind]

Oakland - The Justin Fargas Show finally gets goin'!!!!

 

[zamboni]

I agree with most of your assessments, but I think Lewis will be the guy in Baltimore again, while Chester will be somewhere else.

 

[Fumbleweed]

I agree with most of your assessments, but I think Lewis will be the guy in Baltimore again, while Chester will be somewhere else.

Could be......

 

[fruity pebbles]

I agree with most of your assessments, but I think Lewis will be the guy in Baltimore again, while Chester will be somewhere else.

Yep, as much has already been said.

 

[Two Deep]

I think TJ Duckett could go to Pitts, or Philly.

 

[UFO]

I don't think Duckett is a FA, he will certainly remain in Atlanta

 

[Chaos Commish]

LenDale White, Laurence Maroney and DeAngelo Williams are going to get a lot of carries somewhere.

 

[jeff_eaglz]

It's my personal belief that the face of the running back position is changing in the NFL. RBBC is more en vogue than ever, an offshoot of the substitution of personnel for various situations at most every other position on the field.The reasons are many, with only one real drawback:Reason 1 - Having two (or more) running backs involved in the offense creates a 2- or 3-headed monster that is the team running back. Having a bruiser to pound the ball up the middle, a speed guy to turn the corner, and a hands guy to go out in pass patterns creates the ideal running back. Reason 2 - The ideal running back is a rare beast. How many athletes at the RB position can run the ball inside and out, turn the corner, pick up third and 2 consistently, and also run a pass pattern that will keep opposing LBs and safeties up at night? Not many. For every LJ, Tiki or LT2 there's a few tandems that try and emulate just that (i.e. Anderson / Bell or FWP / Bettis). Reason 3 - Injuries. Ball carriers get hurt - it is part of the game. Having 2 or 3 RBs that are used to getting touches every game and/or series keeps them ready if they have to go to a bigger role in the overall offense.Reason 4 - There are a growing number of running backs that are gifted athletes in the NFL, both as rookies and as veterans. Witness the depth of the position that even a relatively new team (Houston) has in the backfield - Dom Davis, Jon Wells, and V. Morency, and now they are going to take Reggie Bush. Carolina has a 5-time 100+ yard rusher as their 3rd back. Samkon Gado comes out of nowhere as, what, the 5th string RB to shine for GB this season? Lots of running backs.All this points to RBBC becoming the norm throughout the league. 300+ carry running backs / feature backs may go the way of the dinosaur. I hope it is not true, but don't be the last one to notice the trend.Don't mean to hijack this thread, so I'm posting this separately.Carry on.

 

[Two Deep]

I don't think Duckett is a FA, he will certainly remain in Atlanta

There has been talk of trading him as of late.

 

[Fumbleweed]

Don't mean to hijack this thread, so I'm posting this separately.

Carry on.

I don't think you're hijacking it at all. I think your points are extremely relevant to the discussion. If you're going to talk "backfields", you have to address the landscape that currently exists and what you see the concept evolving into. I think you're right, for what it's worth. RBBCs are hated by fantasy footballers, but they make quite a bit of sense in the real world.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Also, if Johathan Wells leaves via free agency he could get a lot of work in say... Pittsburgh. Then I doubt DD would be traded. IF Houston drafts Bush, I could see them keeping Davis, Wells and Morency too. Depth is good. RBs drop like flies, and the RBBC conversation also applies.

 

[Chaos]

Here are some initial projections, although it's too early in some respects to speculate. Still, it's fun to do......

Buffalo- McGahee will still be featured.

Miami- Williams and Brown will again split carries like they did this year

New England- Dillon will be retained and the Pats will add another back to groom for 2007. Faulk will continue to be the back in passing situations. I think Dillon may be retained but he is phased out as NE brings in someone like Jamal Lewis.

New York Jets- Martin will be in a platoon situation with someone new. Maybe a rookie or a free agent. Unless the Jets draft someone, look for Cedric Houston to get lots of carries in order to keep Martin fresh.

Baltimore- Chester Taylor will be re-signed to a solid, but modest contract and given a year to see if he can be featured. Agreed, since they stopped CLE from getting him last year and that he outplayed Jamal, he is the starter.

Cincinnati- Rudi will remain the featured back with Perry spelling him for 6-10 carries a game.

Cleveland- Droughns will be featured. I think that CLE might look at bringing on someone like EDGE if he is available as speculated. They want difference makers.

Pittsburgh- Willie Parker will split time with another RB (Bettis-like). Jamal Lewis maybe?? Lendale White gets the bulk of carries if drafted.

Houston- Reggie Bush will get the bulk of the carries as a rookie. Domanick Davis will be dealt on draft day for a third rounder.

Indianapolis- Will look to add a versatile RB like Domanick Davis or Ahman Green. Edge will go elsewhere.

Jacksonville- I look for Edgerrin James to wind up here. Taylor will be released and Greg Jones will continue to get some carries. I think they run with Taylor, Jones and Pearman another year.

Tennessee- Chris Brown will again be featured with at least one RB brought in to compete with he and Henry (if Henry is retained).

Denver- Committee approach for one more year. If Bell does not become a prime featured back by season's end, they will look to add a solid RB in 2007.

Kansas City- Larry Johnson will be featured. How can he not be?

Oakland- Lamont Jordan will be featured.

San Diego- LaDainian Tomlinson will be featured.

Dallas- Julius Jones will be featured with Barber again vulturing some goal-line carries.

NY Giants- Tiki Barber will be featured.

Philadelphia- Westbrook and Moats will be the primary RB tandem as Philly addresses other needs in the offseason.

Washington- Portis will be featured with Betts stealing some carries.

Chicago- Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson will split carries. If Benson looks good, the Bears will have to make a decision after 2006 about who to continue with.

Detroit- Kevin Jones will be featured (can he stay healthy?)

Green Bay- I think Green Bay is in prime position to snag a top RB in the draft. Gado is a nice story, but they need more from the position.

Minnesota- Another team who will look to add a RB in the draft....maybe someone who can platoon with Bennett or Moore...or maybe a feature back.

Atlanta- Warrick Dunn will be featured with a veteran brought in to compete with him for some of his carries. They won't want Dunn to go over 20 carries a game very much.

Carolina- I think Foster will be retained. Some think Carolina will draft a RB high or acquire a solid free agent....I see other needs as more pressing.

New Orleans- McAllister will be featured provided he is healthy.

Tampa Bay- Cadillac will be featured.

Arizona- New RB needed. Someone who can run between the tackles...with Dennis Green's history, a first round pick is a big possibility.

St. Louis- Steven Jackson will be featured.

San Francisco- I think it will be a committee approach again as SF has other needs more pressing than RB to address in the off-season.

Seattle- I think Alexander re-signs and is featured. If for some reason, he doesn't, I could see Alexander in Jacksonville or Minnesota and Seattle would likely try out Morris + a veteran complement (Fred Taylor?).

Any thoughts on how it will all shake out?

 

[knowledge dropper]

Pittsburgh- Willie Parker will split time with another RB (Bettis-like). Jamal Lewis maybe?? Lendale White gets the bulk of carries if drafted.

There is no way White will still be there when the Steelers pick. They will have to trade up.

 

[Garts]

I think Tatum Bell starts in Denver next year...just a hunch. I think this year was his real rookie year after being hurt a lot in Year #1. I think he starts in 2006. JMO.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Here are some initial projections, although it's too early in some respects to speculate. Still, it's fun to do......

Buffalo- McGahee will still be featured. Yep

Miami- Williams and Brown will again split carries like they did this year. I think Ricky get traded.

New England- Dillon will be retained and the Pats will add another back to groom for 2007. Faulk will continue to be the back in passing situations.

New York Jets- Martin will be in a platoon situation with someone new. Maybe a rookie or a free agent. Think martin rebound slightly, good FFL value next year, not as good as 2004 though.

Baltimore- Chester Taylor will be re-signed to a solid, but modest contract and given a year to see if he can be featured. Jamal

Cincinnati- Rudi will remain the featured back with Perry spelling him for 6-10 carries a game.

Cleveland- Droughns will be featured.

Pittsburgh- Willie Parker will split time with another RB (Bettis-like). Jamal Lewis maybe?? Im in the minority but I think Pitt given Willie one year as the feature guy with Herron on 3rd down. Draft a RB but not 1st round.

Houston- Reggie Bush will get the bulk of the carries as a rookie. Domanick Davis will be dealt on draft day for a third rounder. Who knows?

Indianapolis- Will look to add a versatile RB like Domanick Davis or Ahman Green. Edge will go elsewhere.

Jacksonville- I look for Edgerrin James to wind up here. Taylor will be released and Greg Jones will continue to get some carries.

Tennessee- Chris Brown will again be featured with at least one RB brought in to compete with he and Henry (if Henry is retained).

Denver- Committee approach for one more year. If Bell does not become a prime featured back by season's end, they will look to add a solid RB in 2007. For some reason I just wanna draft Bell next year

Kansas City- Larry Johnson will be featured. How can he not be?

Oakland- Lamont Jordan will be featured.

San Diego- LaDainian Tomlinson will be featured.

Dallas- Julius Jones will be featured with Barber again vulturing some goal-line carries.

NY Giants- Tiki Barber will be featured.

Philadelphia- Westbrook and Moats will be the primary RB tandem as Philly addresses other needs in the offseason.

Washington- Portis will be featured with Betts stealing some carries.

Chicago- Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson will split carries. If Benson looks good, the Bears will have to make a decision after 2006 about who to continue with.

Detroit- Kevin Jones will be featured (can he stay healthy?)

Green Bay- I think Green Bay is in prime position to snag a top RB in the draft. Gado is a nice story, but they need more from the position.

Minnesota- Another team who will look to add a RB in the draft....maybe someone who can platoon with Bennett or Moore...or maybe a feature back. I like Moore here, new system WCO, Moore is already the best receiver, Fason goal-line, Bennett & the Whiz long gone.

Atlanta- Warrick Dunn will be featured with a veteran brought in to compete with him for some of his carries. They won't want Dunn to go over 20 carries a game very much.

Carolina- I think Foster will be retained. Some think Carolina will draft a RB high or acquire a solid free agent....I see other needs as more pressing.

New Orleans- McAllister will be featured provided he is healthy.

Tampa Bay- Cadillac will be featured.

Arizona- New RB needed. Someone who can run between the tackles...with Dennis Green's history, a first round pick is a big possibility.

St. Louis- Steven Jackson will be featured.

San Francisco- I think it will be a committee approach again as SF has other needs more pressing than RB to address in the off-season. Frank Gore takes over, barlow could get cut.

Seattle- I think Alexander re-signs and is featured. If for some reason, he doesn't, I could see Alexander in Jacksonville or Minnesota and Seattle would likely try out Morris + a veteran complement (Fred Taylor?).

Any thoughts on how it will all shake out?

 

[The man on the moon]

Here are some initial projections, although it's too early in some respects to speculate. Still, it's fun to do......

Minnesota- Another team who will look to add a RB in the draft....maybe someone who can platoon with Bennett or Moore...or maybe a feature back. What about Fason? Does no one think that this kid will pan out here? He did alright towards the end of the season and i think that he could at least start taking the goalline carries.

Carolina- I think Foster will be retained. Some think Carolina will draft a RB high or acquire a solid free agent....I see other needs as more pressing. I don't think that Foster is retained here. This guy seems to get hurt year after year and this year it may have cost them a super bowl appearance. I think that Shelton is the guy here

 

[H.K.]

Here are some initial projections,

Carolina- I think Foster will be retained. Some think Carolina will draft a RB high or acquire a solid free agent....I see other needs as more pressing. I don't think that Foster is retained here.  This guy seems to get hurt year after year and this year it may have cost them a super bowl appearance.  I think that Shelton is the guy here

Carolina homer here and I doubt Shelton will even be on the team next year. He has horrible practice habits and showed nothing in the pre-season. Unless his attitude and effort does a 180, he's probably out of the league.EDIT to Add: BTW GM Hurney has publicly stated the Panthers would like to retain Foster, FWIW.

 

[AussieOyOyOy]

Good analysis, Fumbleweed.But I do have to attack the weak link of the post (or why would I even reply?).Ahman Green is versatile?? Most semi-coordinated human beings can catch a screen pass. That's about the extent of his versatility.

 

[The man on the moon]

Here are some initial projections,

Carolina- I think Foster will be retained. Some think Carolina will draft a RB high or acquire a solid free agent....I see other needs as more pressing. I don't think that Foster is retained here. This guy seems to get hurt year after year and this year it may have cost them a super bowl appearance. I think that Shelton is the guy here

Carolina homer here and I doubt Shelton will even be on the team next year. He has horrible practice habits and showed nothing in the pre-season. Unless his attitude and effort does a 180, he's probably out of the league.EDIT to Add: BTW GM Hurney has publicly stated the Panthers would like to retain Foster, FWIW.

Do you have a link to this info? All i have heard is that Foster likely won't be there and Shelton is their guy next in line. Did he even play or practice last year? THe kid got hurt very shortly after practice started. The kid has too much talent to not be in this league...

 

[David Yudkin]

Good analysis, Fumbleweed.

But I do have to attack the weak link of the post (or why would I even reply?).

Ahman Green is versatile?? Most semi-coordinated human beings can catch a screen pass. That's about the extent of his versatility.

Green ranked 5th overall in receptions by a RB from 2000-2004 behind Barber, Faulk, LT, and Pittman. While catching a pass should be easy, it appears to be more difficult for some than others.

 

[Fumbleweed]

Good analysis, Fumbleweed.

But I do have to attack the weak link of the post (or why would I even reply?).

Ahman Green is versatile?? Most semi-coordinated human beings can catch a screen pass. That's about the extent of his versatility.

I was defining versatility as the ability to run and receive. If you would define a RB as versatile using different criteria, that's fine, too.......

 

[Biabreakable]

Ahman Green = complete Rb = versitile.Green can run inside or out (when average blocking is provided) he is a decent blocker and good reciever.Yes the Slackers have run a lot of screen passes in the recent past (when they had lineman who could pull well) but Green catches more than just screens. He is good in the flat downfield and on circle passes as well.

 

[houndirish]

Here are some initial projections,

Carolina- I think Foster will be retained. Some think Carolina will draft a RB high or acquire a solid free agent....I see other needs as more pressing. I don't think that Foster is retained here.  This guy seems to get hurt year after year and this year it may have cost them a super bowl appearance.  I think that Shelton is the guy here

Carolina homer here and I doubt Shelton will even be on the team next year. He has horrible practice habits and showed nothing in the pre-season. Unless his attitude and effort does a 180, he's probably out of the league.EDIT to Add: BTW GM Hurney has publicly stated the Panthers would like to retain Foster, FWIW.

Do you have a link to this info? All i have heard is that Foster likely won't be there and Shelton is their guy next in line. Did he even play or practice last year? THe kid got hurt very shortly after practice started. The kid has too much talent to not be in this league...

I don't have a link but living in Carolina I can also confirm that everything the Panthers have been saying to date leads me to believe they'd like to resign Foster. They don't have a ton of cap space so it wouldn't surprise me to see them go with an incentive laden contract, especially considering Foster's brittle nature. Will Witherspoon sounds like the guy who won't be retained but this is money, not performance, related.

 

[dickey moe]

Pittsburgh- Willie Parker will split time with another RB (Bettis-like). Jamal Lewis maybe?? Lendale White gets the bulk of carries if drafted.

There is no way White will still be there when the Steelers pick. They will have to trade up.

White will probably end up in Green Bay.

 

[BringItOn]

New Orleans- McAllister will be featured provided he is healthy.

I agree he will be likely be feature provided he is healthy, However, he did get hurt in Mid-October, and I don't believe he had the surgery until late in Oct. I would assume NO either drafts someone, or makes a push for one of the free-agents out there like a Chester Taylor, perhaps Warrick Dunn? ( he is due a pretty hefty cap hit this year if retained by Atl) If nothing else, insurance in case Deuce is not ready by camp, which if history proves correct, will likely be the case.

 

[sho nuff]

Good analysis, Fumbleweed.

But I do have to attack the weak link of the post (or why would I even reply?).

Ahman Green is versatile?? Most semi-coordinated human beings can catch a screen pass. That's about the extent of his versatility.

Yeah...all 301 receptions he had in Green Bay were screen passes...

 

[jeff_eaglz]

I think Tatum Bell starts in Denver next year...just a hunch. I think this year was his real rookie year after being hurt a lot in Year #1. I think he starts in 2006. JMO.

That's highly unlikely.Where's SSOG when you need him?

Shanahan doesn't want Bell to get more than 15 carries a game. He thinks that's about his limit.

Also Bell rarely picks up a first down. His carries usually can be grouped into 12 carries for 0-2 yards, 2 for 3-6, and 1 for 40+. That's pretty inefficient.

For the record:

Bell had 41 first downs and 8 TDs on 184 carries in 2005, including the postseason.

Mike Anderson had 61 firsts and 15 TDs on 267 carries over the same span.

49/184 = 26.6% of Bell's carries for firsts.

76/267 = 28.5% for MA.

The BIGGEST stat difference lies beneath this.

Bell had 92 carries for 2 yards or fewer. That's exactly 50%.

Anderson had just 80 carries for 2 yards or fewer. That's 30%.

So Anderson is likely to get you 3 or more yards / carry 70% of his carries, whereas Bell will fail half the time. He's exactly an "all or nothing" type of back.

 

[nygiants56]

ricky will be traded. espn has been all over it saying it is most likely denver looking at him

 

[H.K.]

Here are some initial projections,

Carolina- I think Foster will be retained. Some think Carolina will draft a RB high or acquire a solid free agent....I see other needs as more pressing. I don't think that Foster is retained here.  This guy seems to get hurt year after year and this year it may have cost them a super bowl appearance.  I think that Shelton is the guy here

Carolina homer here and I doubt Shelton will even be on the team next year. He has horrible practice habits and showed nothing in the pre-season. Unless his attitude and effort does a 180, he's probably out of the league.EDIT to Add: BTW GM Hurney has publicly stated the Panthers would like to retain Foster, FWIW.

Do you have a link to this info? All i have heard is that Foster likely won't be there and Shelton is their guy next in line. Did he even play or practice last year? THe kid got hurt very shortly after practice started. The kid has too much talent to not be in this league...

No link, but Shelton's "injury" was a topic for laughter this morning on the local sports radio show. Essentially Shelton was assigned a ficticious injury to keep him on the squad but not at the expense of roster space. He is locally regarded as a wasted draft pick.

 

[CrossEyed]

Pittsburgh- Willie Parker will split time with another RB (Bettis-like). Jamal Lewis maybe?? Lendale White gets the bulk of carries if drafted.

There is no way White will still be there when the Steelers pick. They will have to trade up.

Agreed, and I don't see the Steelers trading up. I think you'll see a very similar situation to what happened this year, with Staley taking the role that Bettis played. I know I'm in the minority, but I think that Staley still figures in the Steelers plans for 2006.

 

[Black&Gold]

Agreed, and I don't see the Steelers trading up. I think you'll see a very similar situation to what happened this year, with Staley taking the role that Bettis played. I know I'm in the minority, but I think that Staley still figures in the Steelers plans for 2006.

Agreed. No way we trade up to get a RB. They will fill Bettis's shoes somehow, but not by trading up. We only trade up to get star safetys!!!

 

[brewer]

Pittsburgh- Willie Parker will split time with another RB (Bettis-like). Jamal Lewis maybe?? Lendale White gets the bulk of carries if drafted.

There is no way White will still be there when the Steelers pick. They will have to trade up.

Agreed, and I don't see the Steelers trading up. I think you'll see a very similar situation to what happened this year, with Staley taking the role that Bettis played. I know I'm in the minority, but I think that Staley still figures in the Steelers plans for 2006.

I think Duce Staley is still the best running back on the Steelers. They however, feel differently and I don't see any way that he is back on the team next year.

 

[The Mechanic]

Just curious,.... where do the Football Gods see The Priest next year? Didn't see any mention of the Great One in these threads....

 

[CrossEyed]

Pittsburgh- Willie Parker will split time with another RB (Bettis-like). Jamal Lewis maybe?? Lendale White gets the bulk of carries if drafted.

There is no way White will still be there when the Steelers pick. They will have to trade up.

Agreed, and I don't see the Steelers trading up. I think you'll see a very similar situation to what happened this year, with Staley taking the role that Bettis played. I know I'm in the minority, but I think that Staley still figures in the Steelers plans for 2006.

I think Duce Staley is still the best running back on the Steelers. They however, feel differently and I don't see any way that he is back on the team next year.

I don't think that's necessarily true. I remember pretty early in the season when Cowher said that he didn't think Duce would be 100% all year. Maybe they felt like it was in everyone's best interest to use him as little as they could this year and bring him back at 100% next year after Jerome retires. I still think they like Willie as the starter, but they alsio know they need another good back. Although Haynes has looked very good this year and could possibly play more of a role next year.

 

[Vikes Fan]

Here are some initial projections, although it's too early in some respects to speculate. Still, it's fun to do......

Minnesota- Another team who will look to add a RB in the draft....maybe someone who can platoon with Bennett or Moore...or maybe a feature back. What about Fason?  Does no one think that this kid will pan out here?  He did alright towards the end of the season and i think that he could at least start taking the goalline carries.

Here is Fason's line on the year...Ciatrick Fason 32 carries 62 yards 1.9 yards/carry 15 long run 4 TDs

While he did O.K.at the goal (4 TD), the rest is uninspiring. I actually thought he looked slow and was stopped for no gain too often on short yardage. Maybe another year and a new coaching staff will help, but to answer your question, no I do not see him panning out. That's just my opinion, however.

 

[Spike]

Here are some initial projections, although it's too early in some respects to speculate. Still, it's fun to do......

Baltimore- Chester Taylor will be re-signed to a solid, but modest contract and given a year to see if he can be featured. Interesting.

Cincinnati- Rudi will remain the featured back with Perry spelling him for 6-10 carries a game. I wonder if Perry gets that many carries. I could see that many touches, but not carries.

Houston- Reggie Bush will get the bulk of the carries as a rookie. Domanick Davis will be dealt on draft day for a third rounder. I cannot see Bush getting the bulk of the carries.

Jacksonville- I look for Edgerrin James to wind up here. Taylor will be released and Greg Jones will continue to get some carries. "Taylor will be released..." Wow! I hadn't thought that would happen.

Dallas- Julius Jones will be featured with Barber again vulturing some goal-line carries. I see Barber having a greater role than this.

Philadelphia- Westbrook and Moats will be the primary RB tandem as Philly addresses other needs in the offseason. I still see Westbrook as the lead and Moats having a decidedly lesser role.

Arizona- New RB needed. Someone who can run between the tackles...with Dennis Green's history, a first round pick is a big possibility. I think they give Arrington another year.

Seattle- I think Alexander re-signs and is featured. If for some reason, he doesn't, I could see Alexander in Jacksonville or Minnesota and Seattle would likely try out Morris + a veteran complement (Fred Taylor?).

Any thoughts on how it will all shake out?

 

[JohnnyU]

Here are some initial projections, although it's too early in some respects to speculate. Still, it's fun to do......

Buffalo- McGahee will still be featured. I agree.

Miami- Williams and Brown will again split carries like they did this year The Dolphins will trade Ricky Williams if possible (maybe Denver?)

New England- Dillon will be retained and the Pats will add another back to groom for 2007. Faulk will continue to be the back in passing situations. I agree.

New York Jets- Martin will be in a platoon situation with someone new. Maybe a rookie or a free agent. If Martin is in NY and he is healthy, he starts. Could Martin retire? I agree the Jets will draft another RB, and it probably will be either DeAngelo Williams or Lendale White. They could pass on a RB in the first, and if they do, they will select one in the 2nd rd (Calhoun?).

Baltimore- Chester Taylor will be re-signed to a solid, but modest contract and given a year to see if he can be featured. If Balt trades Jamal Lewis, Chester will get his shot. I predict he will do well.

Cincinnati- Rudi will remain the featured back with Perry spelling him for 6-10 carries a game. I agree.

Cleveland- Droughns will be featured. I agree for the most part. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see Suggs steal lots of carries.

Pittsburgh- Willie Parker will split time with another RB (Bettis-like). Jamal Lewis maybe?? Duckett, or LenDale White (they would have to trade up for him, he woudn't get past Green Bay).

Houston- Reggie Bush will get the bulk of the carries as a rookie. Domanick Davis will be dealt on draft day for a third rounder. They will keep DD unless wowed by an offer. I doubt that will happen, because there are too many good RBs that will be available, either by FA or the draft. Teams don't feel they have to over pay for RBs.

Indianapolis- Will look to add a versatile RB like Domanick Davis or Ahman Green. Edge will go elsewhere. The Colts' Bill Polian wants a power running game. DD doesn't apply. I also don't think they want Ahman Green. Dom Rhodes got close to 1100 yds and 10 tds when Edge was hurt. He can carry the load. However, there is talk about Maroney, but he won't get past Minnesota. The Colts would have to move up in the draft if they want Maroney.

Jacksonville- I look for Edgerrin James to wind up here. Taylor will be released and Greg Jones will continue to get some carries. Sounds logical.

Tennessee- Chris Brown will again be featured with at least one RB brought in to compete with he and Henry (if Henry is retained). I think Tennessee is close to replacing Chris Brown. They could draft one of the big 4 rb at #3. However, it looks like it's going to be Vince Young at #3. They will still draft a RB early IMO.

Denver- Committee approach for one more year. If Bell does not become a prime featured back by season's end, they will look to add a solid RB in 2007. There are rumors about Ricky Williams coming to Denver. Not sure what to think about that one. I think Bell is an every down back, but I don't think Shanahan thinks that way.

Kansas City- Larry Johnson will be featured. How can he not be? I agree.

Oakland- Lamont Jordan will be featured. I agree.

San Diego- LaDainian Tomlinson will be featured. I agree.

Dallas- Julius Jones will be featured with Barber again vulturing some goal-line carries. I think we are looking at a full fledged RBBC. Parcells loves Barber, and he was effective. He's more than a goal line back.

NY Giants- Tiki Barber will be featured. I agree, but we might see more of Jacobs.

Philadelphia- Westbrook and Moats will be the primary RB tandem as Philly addresses other needs in the offseason. It will be mostly Westbrook. I agree that Philly will bring in a more in between the tackles type of back.

Washington- Portis will be featured with Betts stealing some carries. I agree.

Chicago- Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson will split carries. If Benson looks good, the Bears will have to make a decision after 2006 about who to continue with. I think the job will be Benson's and TJ gets traded / cut.

Detroit- Kevin Jones will be featured (can he stay healthy?) I agree.

Green Bay- I think Green Bay is in prime position to snag a top RB in the draft. Gado is a nice story, but they need more from the position. They love Lendale White.

Minnesota- Another team who will look to add a RB in the draft....maybe someone who can platoon with Bennett or Moore...or maybe a feature back. The Vikings will draft Lawrence Maroney if the Colts don't trade up and get him.

Atlanta- Warrick Dunn will be featured with a veteran brought in to compete with him for some of his carries. They won't want Dunn to go over 20 carries a game very much. I agree. Not sure if Duckett will get traded or not, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it.

Carolina- I think Foster will be retained. Some think Carolina will draft a RB high or acquire a solid free agent....I see other needs as more pressing. Don't forget about Eric Shelton.

New Orleans- McAllister will be featured provided he is healthy. I agree, but I do think NO drafts a RB within the first 4 rounds.

Tampa Bay- Cadillac will be featured. I agree.

Arizona- New RB needed. Someone who can run between the tackles...with Dennis Green's history, a first round pick is a big possibility. Edge? LenDale White (never get past GB though), Maroney (steal away from Vikings?), DeAngelo Williams?

St. Louis- Steven Jackson will be featured. I agree.

San Francisco- I think it will be a committee approach again as SF has other needs more pressing than RB to address in the off-season. I agree.

Seattle- I think Alexander re-signs and is featured. If for some reason, he doesn't, I could see Alexander in Jacksonville or Minnesota and Seattle would likely try out Morris + a veteran complement (Fred Taylor?). SA isn't going anywhere.

Any thoughts on how it will all shake out?

 

[Mr. Vegas]

Just curious,.... where do the Football Gods see The Priest next year? Didn't see any mention of the Great One in these threads....

I think He will retire.

 

[Garts]

I think Tatum Bell starts in Denver next year...just a hunch. I think this year was his real rookie year after being hurt a lot in Year #1. I think he starts in 2006. JMO.

That's highly unlikely.Where's SSOG when you need him?

Shanahan doesn't want Bell to get more than 15 carries a game. He thinks that's about his limit.

Also Bell rarely picks up a first down. His carries usually can be grouped into 12 carries for 0-2 yards, 2 for 3-6, and 1 for 40+. That's pretty inefficient.

For the record:

Bell had 41 first downs and 8 TDs on 184 carries in 2005, including the postseason.

Mike Anderson had 61 firsts and 15 TDs on 267 carries over the same span.

49/184 = 26.6% of Bell's carries for firsts.

76/267 = 28.5% for MA.

The BIGGEST stat difference lies beneath this.

Bell had 92 carries for 2 yards or fewer. That's exactly 50%.

Anderson had just 80 carries for 2 yards or fewer. That's 30%.

So Anderson is likely to get you 3 or more yards / carry 70% of his carries, whereas Bell will fail half the time. He's exactly an "all or nothing" type of back.

Good analysis. But don't you think the coaches had Bell in there to find the seam and try to break it?? Plus, it looked like Tatum was trying to score on every carry, instead of just taking the 4 yards and being content. Every time he got up, he would pound his fist to the grass thinking he should have went all the way.Maybe if he changes his mind set that he can be a good all round guy, then maybe his stat line would change.

For now though, they have him in there to be a game changer...not a move the chains guy.

 

[jeff_eaglz]

Good analysis. But don't you think the coaches had Bell in there to find the seam and try to break it?? Plus, it looked like Tatum was trying to score on every carry, instead of just taking the 4 yards and being content. Every time he got up, he would pound his fist to the grass thinking he should have went all the way.

Actually, no I don't think he was in there to "break it" that much. He was given a series much like the Priest / LJ arrangement early in the season (Priest gets 2 series, LJ gets 1). The playcalling didn't change too much - a stretch play was a stretch play.

Maybe if he changes his mind set that he can be a good all round guy, then maybe his stat line would change.

Possibly, but he did run between the tackles just about as often as he tried to turn the corner. I don't know that I'd attribute his performance to always trying to break off a big gainer (he actually did have 10 carries for 20+ yards compared to Anderson's 4), but he just isn't as powerful a runner. And since Shanahan has questions on his durability, that's all we have to go on. He won't let him touch the ball 25 times a game, and probably for a reason.