#4, 6pt TDs, which way do you go (1 Viewer)

[bigz99]

I am kinda leaning Manning. From a sheer pts perspective, he is the best pick. Gore and Willie have the injury risk where Manning you know will put up numbers.

 

[rikishiboy]

If PPR I lean toward Gore , otherwise FWP. Manning is not an option at the 1.4. He is the safest Qb to take but guys like Palmer, Brady, Brees, Bulger, McNabb...should have comparable seasons. Plus guys like Kitna, Young, Romo and Roethlisberger are a hair behind...so that means don't take Manning at 1.4.

 

[Chaka]

I take Manning over both those guys with 4 or 6 points per passing TD.

Manning & LT look like the safest first round picks on the board.

 

[hephner]

I take Manning over both those guys with 4 or 6 points per passing TD.Manning & LT look like the safest first round picks on the board.

VBD would beg to differ with that thinking.You should be able to score more fantasy points by grabbing a top RB in that spot, and a QB later in the draft, rather than the other way around, especially in 4 pt per passing TD leagues. Now late in the 1st round, early 2nd could be a different story, but I couldn't see taking Manning in the top half of the first round.

 

[Chaka]

I take Manning over both those guys with 4 or 6 points per passing TD.

Manning & LT look like the safest first round picks on the board.

VBD would beg to differ with that thinking.You should be able to score more fantasy points by grabbing a top RB in that spot, and a QB later in the draft, rather than the other way around, especially in 4 pt per passing TD leagues. Now late in the 1st round, early 2nd could be a different story, but I couldn't see taking Manning in the top half of the first round.

VBD is not the final word in draft picks.Manning (like Favre in his prime) is the closest thing the NFL has to a mortal lock to play 16 games and produce at a high level week-in-week-out.

FWP and Gore are nice players but I feel more confident in my ability to find a 2nd round RB that will produce up to their level than finding a QB that will produce up to Manning's level.

Even if both Gore and FWP play 16 games, a big if, you cannot at all guarantee that their TD production will even reach double digits. If he plays 16 games, and there is no reason to think he will not, Manning is a stone cold lock to finish top 5 in TD passes and top 3 in yards. He is the safest pick on the board. And despite those facts, selecting him would be considered aggressive at best and foolish at worst.

Leaving the first round with the confidence that your guy is going be an earner allows you to be much more flexible in successive rounds. If someone drafts Rudi, Henry, Addai, Alexander, Gore, FWP, LJ (because of the holdout) or even Steven Jackson he will still strongly consider that he needs another RB in the second round just to leverage his confidence in the RB position. Some will even chose that second RB over a quality WR or QB with a higher VBD just to address that RB position. If you have Manning you can all but walk away from the QB position for the rest of your draft. Even in start 2 QB leagues.

Some may argue that they have absolute confidence that Gore, FWP or any of the other RBs I mentioned will play 16 and produce, but no one can tell me that they believe in any of those guys over Manning's ability to do the same and not be called a liar.

Am I the only one who has played in leagues won by QB and WR strong teams?

 

[bigz99]

Does anyone have any past comparables to a RB that broke their hand?

Production down? same?

There is something to be said of the confidence of picking manning.

Would you rather have:

Manning

MJD or Top 5 WR

Benson

(likely another RB like Jacobs/Lynch/etc)

or

Gore

TO

Benson

(likely a Romo/Kitna/Mcnabb/etc)

 

[hotdogcollars]

Does anyone have any past comparables to a RB that broke their hand?Production down? same?There is something to be said of the confidence of picking manning.Would you rather have:ManningMJD or Top 5 WRBenson(likely another RB like Jacobs/Lynch/etc)orGoreTOBenson(likely a Romo/Kitna/Mcnabb/etc)

interesting proposition, but your logic is flavved imo: I dont see any way that Benson, or probably even Lynch, is around at 3.4. And if you go Gore/TO (or similar), then Brady, Brees, Bulger, and McNabb will all be there for you at 3.4In my 6 pt TD league last year, the difference b/t Manning and Bulger/Brees was about 3-5 ppg. However, the difference b/t Gore (top 5 RB) and the 20-25th best RB (who you would get in Rd 3) was 12 pts. Even with the consistency of Manning, you cant afford to give away 7 pts every week by drafting a RB2 as your RB1

 

[bigz99]

Good point on the pt difference.

In my league @ 3.04, based on trends of these owners, I think the top 16 RBs will be off the board.

This means I am projecting Benson as RB17. You disagree?

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Does anyone have any past comparables to a RB that broke their hand?Production down? same?