5 Keys To Being A Better Drafter (1 Viewer)

[sholditch]

If you are serious about being a better drafter, I'm going to give you five easy steps to getting there.

1. You Have To Be Flexible

If you are at all like I used to be, you think draft planning is the most crucial element to drafting. Well, it's not. And you certainly do not want a plan that paints you into a corner in the middle or late rounds which is where most drafts are won and lost.

DO NOT go in with a plan anything like these: "I must have two running backs in the first two rounds" or "I must have a wide receiver in the first three rounds" or "In round four, I'm grabbing Gates because I like those little lightning bolts on the Chargers helmets." Any must do plan is setting you up for the opposite of flexibility.

The reason being flexible is so key is that in any round you can take any position. When value falls to you at wide receiver, you are there to scoop it up. If it is a running back that falls, hey you can grab him just as easily. Quarterback? Take him! You are flexible!

I've found that covering several positions in the first four to five rounds will lead to unlimited options in the later rounds.

So let’s do two quick draft samples each giving you positions taken in the first four rounds:

Draft 1: You make picks of running back, running back, quarterback, running back in the first four rounds. What do you need in the fifth round? The answer is you probably have to take a wide receiver regardless of what players are of value at that point.

Draft 2: If your first four rounds go running back, wide receiver, quarterback, tight end. What do you need in the 5th round? The answer is the best available player. Then what do I need in the sixth round? Again, the best available player.

I'm not advocating taking four different positions in the first four rounds although doing so gives you lots of options in later rounds, I'm advocating being flexible. The more you mix up your positions in the early rounds the more flexibility you have in the late rounds to grab the guys that will inevitably fall to you.

2. You Must Identify Several Players Of Value To Target During The Draft

This is not easy (and let me be the first to recognize that drafting is not a science), but you have to identify a few players before the draft that you are targeting. These are the players that have an average draft position below what you think their actual value may be.

These types of players are the difference in competing for a playoff spot and competing for a championship. I'd recommend trying to narrow the list to 3-5 must have players. You may not get them all, but have the list there with an idea on where you must take them.

3. Tier Players Within Positional Rankings

Tiering is a way to group players that are similar in value. This is a very good way to identify value. I will give you a draft example where tiering is important.

Let's say you are at the end of round four and all of the running backs and receivers in your top tiers are gone, but there are still two quarterbacks in your top tier and one tight end in your top tier. This helps you narrow your decision down to grabbing a player in one of these two positions.

In this case, you could take either a quarterback or a tight end. You might lean towards the tight end since he is the last one in the top tier and possibly (hopefully) one of the remaining top tier quarterbacks make it back to you in the next round.

4. Be Wary Of Bye Weeks, But Not too Wary.

You need to have a cheat sheet or rankings list that has the players bye week next to his name. This can help you if you can not decide between two players of like value. Then just take a look at the bye week and decide which one is more optimal for your team.

I do not advocate avoiding a player if one of your other main players has the same bye week. Always draft the best player available if it is clear in your mind that this is the best player. You are not setting out to win every week by lining up your bye weeks perfectly, but to win the championship by having the best team.

There are no bye weeks in the playoffs so drafting the best player available is always most important. If you do have the option of two players who will perform very close to the other, then feel free to use the bye week as a deciding factor.

5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.

Some staff members are better than others. Some site's ranking are better than others. If you want to win, find the best source, not the "average" source. I'm not here to tell you who is best, but there are places out there that will do that for you. Use those places to your advantage.

Quite simply, do not use "average rankings" to draft from.

Okay, those are your five keys to being a better drafter this year.

One last tip -

Relax and Enjoy Your Draft

Fantasy football is about having fun. Draft day is like your 2nd Christmas.

This is better written and more useful than a lot of the paid content on this site. Well done.

 

[coolnerd]

After doing all those things simpliy ask yourself: I am drafting the better football player?

I strongly disagree. In fact, quite often throughout the average draft I find myself selecting a player well before more talented peers. Unless you really believe Cedric Benson is more talented than Tom Brady, Steve Smith (Car), Crabtree, Gates, etc. In which case, carry on.

and in 2009 Cedric Benson was almost universally drafted after those guys (except for Crabtree) and there is a very good 2010 arguemnt that he still should be even after he had a much stronger performance on the field.That said, my point was after you went through the OP's steps and still had a decison to make between an OK RB like Benson and top 5 players at QB/TE etc. the vote more times than not such be to the Gates/Brady side. Do I manage this perfectly? Of course not, but that is more my goal than to take ok RB because I have to have a RB.

 

[meatwad1]

In order to win this year you should focus on rb - rb - rb...you could go with a Chris Johnson/Steven Jackson/DWill combo, that way you would not have to fear your bye weeks. Then for qb, go with somebody like Romo, Brees and Arod will probably be off the board. The only downside here is that you sacrificing at wr. Guys you should look at are Brandon Marshall, Miles Austin ( he was FANTASTIC last year) and maybe Colston or Rice. That would be a great way to stack your team for a victorious season.

 

[two_dollars]

Be sure to get a kicker in round 1, they go fast. Don't worry about running backs until at least round 15.

 

[Insein]

5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.

Some staff members are better than others. Some site's ranking are better than others. If you want to win, find the best source, not the "average" source. I'm not here to tell you who is best, but there are places out there that will do that for you. Use those places to your advantage.

Quite simply, do not use "average rankings" to draft from.

You don't use ADP to draft from. You use it to see where a player is most likely to go. You do the homework and identify the guys you want and then use the ADP to find around where you will need to take him. Its one of the tools you use and I find ADP to be essential to any draft prep.

 

[Black]

In order to win this year you should focus on rb - rb - rb...you could go with a Chris Johnson/Steven Jackson/DWill combo, that way you would not have to fear your bye weeks. Then for qb, go with somebody like Romo, Brees and Arod will probably be off the board. The only downside here is that you sacrificing at wr. Guys you should look at are Brandon Marshall, Miles Austin ( he was FANTASTIC last year) and maybe Colston or Rice. That would be a great way to stack your team for a victorious season.

I play in PPR, so for me this would never work. Even in non-PPR, I wouldn't do this. You must get the most value out of your draft. You will miss on players, so you have to hit on as many as possible. I would never tell anyone you must go POSITION-POSITION-POSITION...that's just plain silly. In fact, if I did go that route, this year (and for the last 4 years), I would probably say avoid RBs for a few rounds and stack up on them in mid-rounds. That being said, if Gore is there at 1.10 or DeAngelo is there at 2.04, I might grab them, and adjust my draft later to get more WR.You probably want to avoid Miles Austin, b/c everyone knows he was great. You probably want to avoid Colston, since he rarely gets more than 6 receptions a game, as Brees spreads the ball around, but people know the name, love the offense. There are probably better VALUES at those positions. But if you love them, take them.You have to see what players will be available where. Make your plan around some good value players that you are happy to grab where they are going. Maybe you have a hoard of RB sleepers...ok, stack up on WR and QB and roll the dice with your sleepers.The draft begins with a level playing field. Everyone has the same 'pick currency' and ability to draft just about anyone they want. Everyone has similar cheat sheets. What will start to separate you from others is research and the decision to target certain players and the ability to get the best value out of each pick.

 

[meatwad1]

In order to win this year you should focus on rb - rb - rb...you could go with a Chris Johnson/Steven Jackson/DWill combo, that way you would not have to fear your bye weeks. Then for qb, go with somebody like Romo, Brees and Arod will probably be off the board. The only downside here is that you sacrificing at wr. Guys you should look at are Brandon Marshall, Miles Austin ( he was FANTASTIC last year) and maybe Colston or Rice. That would be a great way to stack your team for a victorious season.

I play in PPR, so for me this would never work. Even in non-PPR, I wouldn't do this. You must get the most value out of your draft. You will miss on players, so you have to hit on as many as possible. I would never tell anyone you must go POSITION-POSITION-POSITION...that's just plain silly. In fact, if I did go that route, this year (and for the last 4 years), I would probably say avoid RBs for a few rounds and stack up on them in mid-rounds. That being said, if Gore is there at 1.10 or DeAngelo is there at 2.04, I might grab them, and adjust my draft later to get more WR.You probably want to avoid Miles Austin, b/c everyone knows he was great. You probably want to avoid Colston, since he rarely gets more than 6 receptions a game, as Brees spreads the ball around, but people know the name, love the offense. There are probably better VALUES at those positions. But if you love them, take them.You have to see what players will be available where. Make your plan around some good value players that you are happy to grab where they are going. Maybe you have a hoard of RB sleepers...ok, stack up on WR and QB and roll the dice with your sleepers.The draft begins with a level playing field. Everyone has the same 'pick currency' and ability to draft just about anyone they want. Everyone has similar cheat sheets. What will start to separate you from others is research and the decision to target certain players and the ability to get the best value out of each pick.

I don't know man...I am thinking that Romo- CJ- SJ - Brandon Marshall - MA - with Dwill as a flex would be super awesome..that is the strategy I would go for, especially in a twelve team ppr.

 

[Gatorman]

This JoeT guy should be on staff.

 

[Tybeeman]

Well done Joe T, I enjoyed the read.

 

[Captain Hook]

5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.

I am trying to understand this a bit better. I don't draft direct off an ADP list, but find that it is valuable in knowing approximately where to expect players to go.

There is a BIG difference between "Average Draft Ranking" - ie rankings/projections and ADP "Average Draft Positions" or Where players are drafted on average

I would also caution people to qualify the ADP you are using. ADP from draft sites that has a lot of BOT drafters or lunchtime drafters or for a totally different format than the league you are preparing for is essentially USELESS.

Get ADP from "real" drafts that are for exactly the same size league and scoring system you are prepping for.

If you are playing in WCOFF or FFPC or NFFC get ADP from only those drafts - none of the three are the same

If you are prepping for the FBG Players Championship GET your ADP from FFPC drafts - same league size and scoring

And for ALL of those contests the best ADP is from doing one of their cheap satellite drafts - it is other people in the contest who are preparing for the same drafts!

 

[Black]

I don't know man...I am thinking that Romo- CJ- SJ - Brandon Marshall - MA - with Dwill as a flex would be super awesome..that is the strategy I would go for, especially in a twelve team ppr.

I'd love to have that team, but looking at ADP, looks like you can only get maybe 1/2 of those players (even based on 10 team draft).C.Johnson :1st/1.01SJax: 8th/1.08 D.Williams 15th / 2.05Brandon Marshall: 17th / 2.07MAustin 19th / 2.09Romo: 38th/4.09

 

[Fred Lane]

Psychological tip: Know what your other owners' favorite teams and home NFL market are. There are many owners that are biased towards picking players and "sleepers" from these teams based on "excessive" knowledge, hype, or research. Use that to your advantage.

 

[Joe T]

5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.

Some staff members are better than others. Some site's ranking are better than others. If you want to win, find the best source, not the "average" source. I'm not here to tell you who is best, but there are places out there that will do that for you. Use those places to your advantage.

Quite simply, do not use "average rankings" to draft from.

You don't use ADP to draft from. You use it to see where a player is most likely to go. You do the homework and identify the guys you want and then use the ADP to find around where you will need to take him. Its one of the tools you use and I find ADP to be essential to any draft prep.

To clarify, I wasn't referring to ADP.

I was talking about using a compilation of various rankings to draft from. Lots of sites put up averages of various rankings. I think drafting from a compilation is inadvisable when you can choose to draft from specific rankings that have a history of out-performance.

 

[Insein]

5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.

Some staff members are better than others. Some site's ranking are better than others. If you want to win, find the best source, not the "average" source. I'm not here to tell you who is best, but there are places out there that will do that for you. Use those places to your advantage.

Quite simply, do not use "average rankings" to draft from.

You don't use ADP to draft from. You use it to see where a player is most likely to go. You do the homework and identify the guys you want and then use the ADP to find around where you will need to take him. Its one of the tools you use and I find ADP to be essential to any draft prep.

To clarify, I wasn't referring to ADP.

I was talking about using a compilation of various rankings to draft from. Lots of sites put up averages of various rankings. I think drafting from a compilation is inadvisable when you can choose to draft from specific rankings that have a history of out-performance.

That I agree with.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

In order to win this year you should focus on rb - rb - rb...you could go with a Chris Johnson/Steven Jackson/DWill combo, that way you would not have to fear your bye weeks. Then for qb, go with somebody like Romo, Brees and Arod will probably be off the board. The only downside here is that you sacrificing at wr. Guys you should look at are Brandon Marshall, Miles Austin ( he was FANTASTIC last year) and maybe Colston or Rice. That would be a great way to stack your team for a victorious season.

 

[smackdaddies]

use the Draft Dominator from the FBG.

Not to draft from so much, but to give you a second set of eyes on what's happening. I find it a very useful tool to make me step back and think when I am drafting - why is DD focusing on this player? DD ranks this player here - what is his ADP, and how long can I wait on him.

Of course it can help you draft LT at 1.7 last year, but......

 

[FUBAR]

Every league is different which is what makes fantasy football so compelling.

I'm in 6 dynasty leagues, each with different nuances. People seem to miss this concept when forming new leagues sometimes, they want to have a good league so they match a set of rules another league uses without changing anything. Not to say start from scratch, but use what you like and add to it.

 

[moleculo]

If you are serious about being a better drafter, I'm going to give you five easy steps to getting there.

1. You Have To Be Flexible

...

2. You Must Identify Several Players Of Value To Target During The Draft

...

doesn't 1. conflict with 2.?

 

[Black]

If you are serious about being a better drafter, I'm going to give you five easy steps to getting there.

1. You Have To Be Flexible

...

2. You Must Identify Several Players Of Value To Target During The Draft

...

doesn't 1. conflict with 2.?

You have to anchor your draft somewhere. ie, you can't just fly by the seat of your pants and just grab best player available. You need to have 'some' idea of what players you will target and where you might get them.

I think what OP says is you create a list of people to TARGET. These are not necessarily must have, but just target to build around. From there, depending on what falls to you, you build around that core. So yeah, you identify some you want, then be flexible and build from what else comes.

 

[joey]

5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.

Some staff members are better than others. Some site's ranking are better than others. If you want to win, find the best source, not the "average" source. I'm not here to tell you who is best, but there are places out there that will do that for you. Use those places to your advantage.

Quite simply, do not use "average rankings" to draft from.

You don't use ADP to draft from. You use it to see where a player is most likely to go. You do the homework and identify the guys you want and then use the ADP to find around where you will need to take him. Its one of the tools you use and I find ADP to be essential to any draft prep.

To clarify, I wasn't referring to ADP.

I was talking about using a compilation of various rankings to draft from. Lots of sites put up averages of various rankings. I think drafting from a compilation is inadvisable when you can choose to draft from specific rankings that have a history of out-performance.

and now you just have to point us to which rankings have a history of out-performing other rankings. Isn't that (some sort of system to grade each FBG's staff rankings at the end of each year)

an annual topic of conversation in the shark pool?

Barring that, I'm sticking with FBG Avg Rank with a hair of nudging to suit my taste.

 

[Bri]

do a lot of mock drafts

there's some quick ones out there and apps/programs to do it too. Try things, don't try things and see what happens

 

[Bri]

5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.

Some staff members are better than others. Some site's ranking are better than others. If you want to win, find the best source, not the "average" source. I'm not here to tell you who is best, but there are places out there that will do that for you. Use those places to your advantage.

Quite simply, do not use "average rankings" to draft from.

You don't use ADP to draft from. You use it to see where a player is most likely to go. You do the homework and identify the guys you want and then use the ADP to find around where you will need to take him. Its one of the tools you use and I find ADP to be essential to any draft prep.

To clarify, I wasn't referring to ADP.

I was talking about using a compilation of various rankings to draft from. Lots of sites put up averages of various rankings. I think drafting from a compilation is inadvisable when you can choose to draft from specific rankings that have a history of out-performance.

not nec above or even this thread but it is common in the SP. This just seemed appropriate to point out now:Some people speak of looking at rankings from multiple staff members or ADP as if other people's minds can't compute averages or react properly to them. There's a level of assumed idiocy there that used to surprise me but now I'm just numb to it.

what is the average of these three numbers: 3, 5 and 7?

4th grade math? 3rd grade? 5th?

Here's an order of five letters A,B,C,D,E. I'm going to move E to the front and A to the back. Where do B,C and D wind up?

That's the most basic tiniest simplest example of drafting. Your prep work can be all about keeping things in order but during any draft you need to be able to adjust and work with things in a loosely ordered manner. At that point, the averages can give you a loosely based order to go on that affords you some predictability.

At about this point most draft theories are created or utilized.

The first round is a charade of predictability and production, it's better to ignore it than analyze it.

Last I checked (it was years ago) 24% of rosters were altered before the start of week 3. Lighten up on the late rounders and have fun. Almost a quarter of your team will not be there in two weeks.

(aside from Ks or Def) ending your draft with a string of WRs or RBs is more likely to net you a week 3 player than mixing it up.

There are still a ton of habits that go back 10 years for many people playing FF. If they drafted Barry, Marshall or CJ, as long as you switched the names of players to be RB1 you'd find there's plenty to be learned of their tendencies.

 

[sholditch]

In order to win this year you should focus on rb - rb - rb...you could go with a Chris Johnson/Steven Jackson/DWill combo, that way you would not have to fear your bye weeks. Then for qb, go with somebody like Romo, Brees and Arod will probably be off the board. The only downside here is that you sacrificing at wr. Guys you should look at are Brandon Marshall, Miles Austin ( he was FANTASTIC last year) and maybe Colston or Rice. That would be a great way to stack your team for a victorious season.

Are you channeling meatwad from ATHF because this actually sounds like something he would say. I haven't read anything this completely off base and flat out wrong on this board, well, hmmm...yep, ever. You're talking about getting three first-round RBs with your first three picks (assuming a no.1 slot), then a mid-3rd QB with your fourth round pick (at the end of the 4th mind you) and then expecting second and third round receivers to be there at the beginning of the fifth and end of the sixth.On the one hand, this is so off it's not worth responding to. On the other, it's so off it's impossible not to.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

In order to win this year you should focus on rb - rb - rb...you could go with a Chris Johnson/Steven Jackson/DWill combo, that way you would not have to fear your bye weeks. Then for qb, go with somebody like Romo, Brees and Arod will probably be off the board. The only downside here is that you sacrificing at wr. Guys you should look at are Brandon Marshall, Miles Austin ( he was FANTASTIC last year) and maybe Colston or Rice. That would be a great way to stack your team for a victorious season.

Are you channeling meatwad from ATHF because this actually sounds like something he would say. I haven't read anything this completely off base and flat out wrong on this board, well, hmmm...yep, ever. You're talking about getting three first-round RBs with your first three picks (assuming a no.1 slot), then a mid-3rd QB with your fourth round pick (at the end of the 4th mind you) and then expecting second and third round receivers to be there at the beginning of the fifth and end of the sixth.On the one hand, this is so off it's not worth responding to. On the other, it's so off it's impossible not to.

 

[Northbound Train]

Great thread...nice post by th OP and good banter back and forth

 

[moleculo]

If you are serious about being a better drafter, I'm going to give you five easy steps to getting there.

5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.

Some staff members are better than others. Some site's ranking are better than others. If you want to win, find the best source, not the "average" source. I'm not here to tell you who is best, but there are places out there that will do that for you. Use those places to your advantage.

Quite simply, do not use "average rankings" to draft from.

I disagree with this completely. This is predicated on knowing who has the best list before the season starts. If you can figure that out, you shouldn't be using other peoples ranking lists to start with.It's impossible to tell a good list from a bad list during the pre-season. Past performance is no indicator either. You simply can't tell. You are just as likely to end up last as first.

My strategy this year is to look at as many projections as I possibly can, average those projections and use that as my baseline ranking list. Next, I'll look at which players projected stats vary the most (i.e. high std dev), and dig into their projections and tweak as I see fit. High std dev indicates general disagreement between the projectors - some guys will be higher on player X than everyone else, some guys will be lower on player Y, etc. These guys, X and Y, are the guys that I will dedicate my time evaluating and adjusting.

 

[joey]

If you are serious about being a better drafter, I'm going to give you five easy steps to getting there.

5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.

Some staff members are better than others. Some site's ranking are better than others. If you want to win, find the best source, not the "average" source. I'm not here to tell you who is best, but there are places out there that will do that for you. Use those places to your advantage.

Quite simply, do not use "average rankings" to draft from.

I disagree with this completely. This is predicated on knowing who has the best list before the season starts. If you can figure that out, you shouldn't be using other peoples ranking lists to start with.It's impossible to tell a good list from a bad list during the pre-season. Past performance is no indicator either. You simply can't tell. You are just as likely to end up last as first.

My strategy this year is to look at as many projections as I possibly can, average those projections and use that as my baseline ranking list. Next, I'll look at which players projected stats vary the most (i.e. high std dev), and dig into their projections and tweak as I see fit. High std dev indicates general disagreement between the projectors - some guys will be higher on player X than everyone else, some guys will be lower on player Y, etc. These guys, X and Y, are the guys that I will dedicate my time evaluating and adjusting.

exactly what I was trying to say 6 posts earlier but you said it much better (and with big words like "standard deviation" )

 

[TWP]

If you are serious about being a better drafter, I'm going to give you five easy steps to getting there.

5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.

Some staff members are better than others. Some site's ranking are better than others. If you want to win, find the best source, not the "average" source. I'm not here to tell you who is best, but there are places out there that will do that for you. Use those places to your advantage.

Quite simply, do not use "average rankings" to draft from.

I disagree with this completely. This is predicated on knowing who has the best list before the season starts. If you can figure that out, you shouldn't be using other peoples ranking lists to start with.It's impossible to tell a good list from a bad list during the pre-season. Past performance is no indicator either. You simply can't tell. You are just as likely to end up last as first.

My strategy this year is to look at as many projections as I possibly can, average those projections and use that as my baseline ranking list. Next, I'll look at which players projected stats vary the most (i.e. high std dev), and dig into their projections and tweak as I see fit. High std dev indicates general disagreement between the projectors - some guys will be higher on player X than everyone else, some guys will be lower on player Y, etc. These guys, X and Y, are the guys that I will dedicate my time evaluating and adjusting.

exactly what I was trying to say 6 posts earlier but you said it much better (and with big words like "standard deviation" )

If I'm not mistaken at least one staffer (Jason Wood?) said that he typically drafts by creating a list based something like 80% his projections/20% other staffer's projections. That way if he's high on a guy and has an outlier projection, it gets slightly tempered by the 'average' projection so that he doesnt get TOO carried away on someone's upside. Same for players he's down on. I think that both make a lot of sense. If there's someone you think is better than average, you should weight them more than average. But that doesnt mean you shouldnt include ANY aspect of someone else's projections or even the average of a bunch of experts' projections...Not everyone has the time or skill to create/update their own projections for every player, by the way, which seems to be the general assumption on this board...

 

[moleculo]

If you are serious about being a better drafter, I'm going to give you five easy steps to getting there.

5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.

Some staff members are better than others. Some site's ranking are better than others. If you want to win, find the best source, not the "average" source. I'm not here to tell you who is best, but there are places out there that will do that for you. Use those places to your advantage.

Quite simply, do not use "average rankings" to draft from.

I disagree with this completely. This is predicated on knowing who has the best list before the season starts. If you can figure that out, you shouldn't be using other peoples ranking lists to start with.It's impossible to tell a good list from a bad list during the pre-season. Past performance is no indicator either. You simply can't tell. You are just as likely to end up last as first.

My strategy this year is to look at as many projections as I possibly can, average those projections and use that as my baseline ranking list. Next, I'll look at which players projected stats vary the most (i.e. high std dev), and dig into their projections and tweak as I see fit. High std dev indicates general disagreement between the projectors - some guys will be higher on player X than everyone else, some guys will be lower on player Y, etc. These guys, X and Y, are the guys that I will dedicate my time evaluating and adjusting.

exactly what I was trying to say 6 posts earlier but you said it much better (and with big words like "standard deviation" )

If I'm not mistaken at least one staffer (Jason Wood?) said that he typically drafts by creating a list based something like 80% his projections/20% other staffer's projections. That way if he's high on a guy and has an outlier projection, it gets slightly tempered by the 'average' projection so that he doesnt get TOO carried away on someone's upside. Same for players he's down on. I think that both make a lot of sense. If there's someone you think is better than average, you should weight them more than average. But that doesnt mean you shouldnt include ANY aspect of someone else's projections or even the average of a bunch of experts' projections...Not everyone has the time or skill to create/update their own projections for every player, by the way, which seems to be the general assumption on this board...

that's the thing....making full scale projections is not easy. I've done it for a while with varying success. I find that I'm better with certain teams than others - I feel like my projections for Broncos is as good or better than anyone else out there, but when it comes to sorting out the WR situation in Seattle or NYG, I have no clue. Last year I used someone elses projections as a baseline that I tweaked where I felt appropriate. They were high on Hixon as the WR to have in NY, and because I don't know anything about the Giants, I didn't make any adjustments. I ended up drafted Hixon earlier than I should have... obviously, that didn't work out and I would have been happier w/ pretty much any of the others.

I think the trick is not to weigh a particular staffer differently - for Wood, it's probably OK as he generates his own stuff and just wants others input to even out the highs and lows....in the end it's his draft. For me, I can't tell the difference between Maurile, Dodds, Woods, Rudnicki etc projections, and weighing them differently is no help in sorting out where I should be focusing.

What would be cool is to weigh different projections differently for different teams - I'd trust Maurile to do a good job for SD, for example.

Also, I think that FBG suffers from some group think - it's inevitable. Everyone on staff reads the same message board, reads the same articles, etc. I think it's valuable to get input from around the web to include as well.