Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
He’s like a modern day Fred Taylor
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
5 Players You are Fading in the top 50 (redraft) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
H8fulHuck
Footballguy
Try underdog best ball. Burrow falls to pick 72 quite a bit.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Very much on the same page with the first 4, only reason I'm not with Baker is the price - I got him 65th in best ball and 31st in a start 2 QB league. I'm at least not seeing him as a top 50 pick, which is why he ended up on my teams. If I had to toss out a 5th name it'd be Kenneth Walker. I don't think there is much difference in talent between him and Charbonnet, the latter's having a great August, and Walker's availability continues to be a problem - I'm passing on him and trying to get his teammate later.
Last edited:
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
Does anyone have any stats on this claim? I want to believe it but I go by the numbers.
VaTerp
Footballguy
Admitted bias as a homer here but really curious as to the reasoning behind this take. Daniels was QB5 last year as a rookie. In the offseason, WAS traded for a top 5 LT in Tunsil, an additional playmaker in Deebo (the exact type of moves that counter your argument of understanding a short window), spent a first round pick on another tackle, and kept Kingsberry as OC.
So what specifically was so "terrible" about the offseason, especially with regards to Daniels expected FF production?
Regression both individually and as a team are certainly in the realm of realistic outcomes. The team was relatively healthy in 2024, had a much easier schedule than the upcoming season, and a historically good 4th down conversion rate.
That said, you seem to think taking him as the 3rd QB off the board is ridiculous... but again he finished QB5 last year- as a rookie, with a rib injury that caused him to miss almost the entire game against the worst defense in the league and negatively impacted his performance for another 2-3 weeks.
I don't see any reason to not consider Daniels a top 4 QB option going into 2025. So unless you think he's being taken too high relative to other positions, I don't get this take.
Last edited:
VaTerp
Footballguy
Great thread for discussion. Offering my $0.02 from a slightly different perspective.
Based on current Fantasy Pros ADP (PPR)-
Chase (1)- So a big part of this is my bias for RBs due to my leagues scoring and format, where its just really hard to justify a WR at #1 overall. So take this FWIW. That aside, I think a lot of folks are overlooking how historic a season he had in 2024. Or maybe they are not overlooking it- and that's the reason he is the consensus #1. Chase led all WRs last year in not only receptions, yards, and TDs, but also targets, redzone targets, and endzone targets. He's amazing. Burrow is amazing. I just see some regression here and that along with positional scarcity at RB moves him off #1 on my board.
Nacua (11)- As others have mentioned, Stafford's health concerns entering the season give me some pause. Then factor in that I believe Davante, even at this stage of his career, will be a bigger target threat than the 2023-24 version of Kupp, especially in the redzone when we are talking about a guy who has only averaged 4.5 TDs in his 1st two seasons. I can't justify him at his ADP. I'd rather have Nico, BTJ, and a handful of RBs at this spot.
Bowers (17)- Another one where I love the player and production. But with all of the changes to the offense I can't justify passing on the RBs/Wrs in this range. He could prove to justify this if he's able to establish himself in his own tier like Kelce did. Just don't think the value is there yet. Again, more of a positional thing than anything else.
Kamara (38)- I'm about as out on the Saints offense as I can remember being on any offense in recent years. To Kamara's testament, he put up a top 5 ppg season last year on a trash team. But as bad as David Carr was, Kamara's production fell by 50% (roughly 21 ppg to 14 ppg) when he wasn't in the lineup. Looking at those numbers, its still damn impressive. But I'm just not a believer that they have an NFL QB on this roster. Maybe Shough proves me wrong and Kamara always finds a way to get his in PPR. But I'm not banking on a 30 year old RB on what looks like a putrid offense at this spot.
Metcalf (48)- 42 year QB who in my eyes looked much worse than his numbers suggest last year, Arthur Smith offense, limited weapons around him, and coming off a very pedestrian year. No thanks in the top 50 for me. The talent is obviously there so things could break right. But I'd rather gamble on upside from guys like Odunze and Pearsall who can be had a couple of rounds later.
Might not need to be said but I would draft any of these guys at the right spot. But their current ADPs are a pass for me.
Based on current Fantasy Pros ADP (PPR)-
Chase (1)- So a big part of this is my bias for RBs due to my leagues scoring and format, where its just really hard to justify a WR at #1 overall. So take this FWIW. That aside, I think a lot of folks are overlooking how historic a season he had in 2024. Or maybe they are not overlooking it- and that's the reason he is the consensus #1. Chase led all WRs last year in not only receptions, yards, and TDs, but also targets, redzone targets, and endzone targets. He's amazing. Burrow is amazing. I just see some regression here and that along with positional scarcity at RB moves him off #1 on my board.
Nacua (11)- As others have mentioned, Stafford's health concerns entering the season give me some pause. Then factor in that I believe Davante, even at this stage of his career, will be a bigger target threat than the 2023-24 version of Kupp, especially in the redzone when we are talking about a guy who has only averaged 4.5 TDs in his 1st two seasons. I can't justify him at his ADP. I'd rather have Nico, BTJ, and a handful of RBs at this spot.
Bowers (17)- Another one where I love the player and production. But with all of the changes to the offense I can't justify passing on the RBs/Wrs in this range. He could prove to justify this if he's able to establish himself in his own tier like Kelce did. Just don't think the value is there yet. Again, more of a positional thing than anything else.
Kamara (38)- I'm about as out on the Saints offense as I can remember being on any offense in recent years. To Kamara's testament, he put up a top 5 ppg season last year on a trash team. But as bad as David Carr was, Kamara's production fell by 50% (roughly 21 ppg to 14 ppg) when he wasn't in the lineup. Looking at those numbers, its still damn impressive. But I'm just not a believer that they have an NFL QB on this roster. Maybe Shough proves me wrong and Kamara always finds a way to get his in PPR. But I'm not banking on a 30 year old RB on what looks like a putrid offense at this spot.
Metcalf (48)- 42 year QB who in my eyes looked much worse than his numbers suggest last year, Arthur Smith offense, limited weapons around him, and coming off a very pedestrian year. No thanks in the top 50 for me. The talent is obviously there so things could break right. But I'd rather gamble on upside from guys like Odunze and Pearsall who can be had a couple of rounds later.
Might not need to be said but I would draft any of these guys at the right spot. But their current ADPs are a pass for me.
Last edited:
Pots
Footballguy
Everyone is mentioned the same players so I'm going to try and mention a few that aren't the same ones.
WR Drake London
RB Ashton Jeanty
TE George Kittle
WE Ladd McConkey
RB Bijan Robinson
Simply put these are priced too high and I'd rather have the players going around them instead
WR Drake London
RB Ashton Jeanty
TE George Kittle
WE Ladd McConkey
RB Bijan Robinson
Simply put these are priced too high and I'd rather have the players going around them instead
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Should have stuck with the same names seeing as this is basically my target list for the first three rounds lol. Don't think I've left any of my six drafts yet without at least 2 of these guys, some leagues 3.
Pots
Footballguy
Ooof, good luck to you and hope I'm wrong.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Me too lol. Yeah outside Jeanty, these are some of my strongest takes of this year in the early rounds. I feel like I'm not alone either; so I think if you are right there are going to be A LOT of sad fantasy experts out there haha.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
These are some of my targets. Compared to ADP I'm
I'm neutral on Bijan vs ADP and McConkey who's market is fine IMO. I'm a little lower than ADP on Jeanty but Kittle and London I have as guys that could challenge for #1 overall at their positions. Good for you for an unpopular stance.
Chaka
Footballguy
Wrigley
Footballguy
Can't drink all day, if you don't start in the morning.
Chaka
Footballguy
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Same here. 6 point TD league, 300 yard bonus. Hurts still has finished 3rd in 2 of the last 3 years in our league but obviously down last year. I’m looking at one of the elite QB’s at 3.5. Expect LJax and Allen to be gone. Good chance Burrow is as well since the #1 owner will take take Chase and loves Burrow. So potential options for me may be Daniels and Hurts. Trying to rank those in our scoring and determine if either or both are worth the pick. I do think Hurts will pass more this year as teams may try to do what KC did and sell out to stop Saquon.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Update: I have my first Hurts share in the FBG bowl.
Damn you, irresistibly good value in the 6th round!
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
A number off the top of my head:
- Kelce (Duh)
- Hunter (Think he is being massively overrated in general)
- Puka
- Henderson (Still really like him but people taking him over Hampton and others surprises me)
wgoldsph
Footballguy
We're talking about the same guy who only had one good career year right?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yep. And his ADP at the time of posting was 46th. He was popping up in a bunch of articles as a top sleeper pick, but that was a while ago and things change fast in the Information Age.
Checking last night’s FBG Bowl league 3, he was taken 6.09, so that’s a nice value.
Looking at NFFC ADP, he’s 59 (early of 23, late of 103, so a TON of variance)
On FPPC he’s going with an ADP of 55 (44-62) so a lot less variance there, but he is falling a bit from when I’d posted.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
A strategy that resulted in giving up 40 points.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s a bold strategy, Cotton, let’s see if it works out for them.A strategy that resulted in giving up 40 points.
Here are a few:
- Jeanty: He is a guy I am fading because I think his price is too high. Similar to what happend to MHJ last year. Rookie fever is driving up too far. Give me the guys around his ADP that have actually done it before at the NFL level. This is only for redraft. In dynasty he is the 1.01. I think he will be good but I can see where he struggles this year and doesn't live up to his ADP. That's the reason I am fading.
- Bowers: Maybe it's a Raider thing. Again, for redraft, I think his ADP is too high as well. He will have a fine year but I don't think he will be the difference maker his ADP is requiring him to be to make the pick worth it.
- Puka: Injuries worry me and not just to Puka. Stafford going down would be terrible. I also think Adams takes a bigger piece of the pie and knocks Puka down a bit. Again, this is ADP driven. I still think he is fine in the grand scheme of things but underperforms ADP.
- Walker: I think Charbs closes the gap. I would rather take Chuba near the Walker ADP and target Charbs later for cheaper. So it's not so much Walker is bad value but I would rather take Chuba/Charbs and have two cracks at the apple.
Scoresman
Footballguy
It was only a down year for Hurts because of the lopsided game script situations Philly was in. His per game stats were as elite as ever.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I expect them to throw more this year. AJB at ADP is one of the better values in FF drafts right now:
So you're purposely taking the inferior starter and a backup you hope will get more playing time due to an injury?
Manster
Footballguy
This 100%…..should be a monster year barring weirdness.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
2 things here. For one, I’d much rather roster Chuba than KWIII. Won’t comment on who the superior starter is, but Chuba’s been more durable.
The other thing is Charbs being likely to have a decent roll regardless of KWIII’s health, and being a home run if KWIII misses time again. Doesn’t KWIII have an ongoing foot issue?
I believe the point was, given similar ADP Chuba is the better pick in that area of the draft, while Charbs is the more affordable upside piece of the Seahawks backfield.
If that was the point, then I agree with it.
Fair enough.
I draft the better player. Chuba just as likely to get hurt as Walker. Any player is at risk.
I don't believe there is much difference FF wise between Walker and Chuba when factoring in injury history, competition etc. I also think Charbs will be more 50-50 with the injury upside if Walker gets injured (as he is apt to do).
I don't have the same evaluation of these players outlooks as you do.
That was exactly the point.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think if he loses receiving work it’s to Etienne.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Sure, but Walker has missed time every year while Chuba has not. It’s not black-and-white when there are degrees of likelihood. I think most would agree that Walker is more likely to miss time.
Last edited:
FarFromHome
Footballguy
I wood.
But it is black and white. Injuries cannot be predicted. Any player can be out for the season at any time. Period.
Let me ask this, who is more likely to finish as a top 5 RB, Walker or Chuba? That's the guy I want to draft.
Same reason people want CMC, Achane, etc. despite injury concerns, etc.
I understand what Gally means. I just don't agree with it. That's what makes this hobby great.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
While injuries can’t be predicted, one could posit that players who have a track record of missing games every year, and who already have a chronic issue (foot) are riskier than players who don’t.
I suspect you know this though - it seems a bit silly to be so dismissive of KWIII’s sizable injury history.
Last edited:
I'm letting it go. Take care.
the spanker
Footballguy
Wow that's going to be someone's squad or close to it lol.
the spanker
Footballguy
Wait......are you talking ppr or non ppr drafts?
