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5 Players You are Fading in the top 50 (redraft) (1 Viewer)

Burrow is QB5 off the board most of the time
4,900/43 TD
4.475/35TD
4,611/34TD
3 of his last 4 seasons, 1 was cut short by injury

He mentioned Burrow vs. Jalen Hurts in 4 per TD leagues. That comp over the last four seasons may be closer than you think. This coming from a Burrow truther in the SP Home Leagues format.
I think I was clear and specific about his "passing" numbers ;)
Marino couldn't run at all either and yet he's one of the most gifted pocket passers partly due to his ability to buy time "IN" the pocket
Most of these mobile QBs abandon the pocket the second they see a different colored jersey approaching
Maybe Hurts is close in points but Burrow had some games last year that distanced him from the field

Go look at the game logs for Burrow from Week 9 thru Week 16 last season, you won't find a single QB that came close to his passing numbers
For 8 weeks straight he threw a minimum of 3 TDs every single game and avg over 300 yds passing

I'm not saying Burrow is bad.

Look up the Konami code QB cheat code article from a few years ago.

I'd draft Hurts or Lamar over Marino too. Good pocket passers are amazing NFL QBs, but good running QBs are better for fantasy.
 
Kyren - no passing game upside. He has volume but the amount of volume he had last year will be hard to repeat. His rushing efficiency declined a lot last year.

Burrow - Give me Jalen and his rushing upside around the same ADP.

Garrett Wilson - The Jets will probably be bad and if they arent it will be because they are successful at rushing the ball. Just hard to see the upside here.

DJ Moore - Career low YPRR last year. New coaching staff went out and drafted 2 young pass catchers. His ADP is too high for this ambiguity.

Sutton - In 7 seasons, this guy has not finished higher than WR24 in PPG. He's ranked higher or equally with guys like Jameson Williams, Tet, Devonta Smith who have a lot more upside. This is the kind of boring safe mid-round pick that gets you 7th place in your league.
Burrow is QB5 off the board most of the time
4,900/43 TD
4.475/35TD
4,611/34TD
3 of his last 4 seasons, 1 was cut short by injury

What other QB has those type of passing numbers?
They're Dan Marino level, pass on Burrow at your own risk

It's only a fade at ADP. Burrow had a career high TD rate last year which will be tough to repeat. High TD rates historically regress the year after. It's lamost automatic. There will likely be regression here because last year's passing volume will be hard to repeat. And he does not have the rushing volume to make it up. Jalen Hurts with his toosh push and rushing upside arguably has more of chance of finishing higher than Burrow.

In fairness to MOP, I think there are plenty better fades than Burrow. Even in 4 pt TD, 16 games of healthy Burrow is gonna come somewhat close to Hurts at least, and plenty close to those immediately after. And don't disrespect Burrow's rushing too much. Jaylen Hurts he is clearly not, but Joey B has way better wheels than your avg pocket passer and gets a meaningful amount of rushing stats every year.

Yeah there are probably worse players to fade but he's so close to Hurts' ADP, and the Konami code QB cheat is for real.

In 4 pt pass TD leagues w/1 pts per 25 pass yds last season,

Burrow - 373 pts (QB3)
Hurts - 315 pts (QB8)

The cheat code doesn't apply as much when Hurts passes for just 2900/18 - that has to improve bigtime for him to be among the big dawgs this year, whereas Burrow just needs to stay healthy.
 
Kyren - no passing game upside. He has volume but the amount of volume he had last year will be hard to repeat. His rushing efficiency declined a lot last year.

Burrow - Give me Jalen and his rushing upside around the same ADP.

Garrett Wilson - The Jets will probably be bad and if they arent it will be because they are successful at rushing the ball. Just hard to see the upside here.

DJ Moore - Career low YPRR last year. New coaching staff went out and drafted 2 young pass catchers. His ADP is too high for this ambiguity.

Sutton - In 7 seasons, this guy has not finished higher than WR24 in PPG. He's ranked higher or equally with guys like Jameson Williams, Tet, Devonta Smith who have a lot more upside. This is the kind of boring safe mid-round pick that gets you 7th place in your league.
Burrow is QB5 off the board most of the time
4,900/43 TD
4.475/35TD
4,611/34TD
3 of his last 4 seasons, 1 was cut short by injury

What other QB has those type of passing numbers?
They're Dan Marino level, pass on Burrow at your own risk

It's only a fade at ADP. Burrow had a career high TD rate last year which will be tough to repeat. High TD rates historically regress the year after. It's lamost automatic. There will likely be regression here because last year's passing volume will be hard to repeat. And he does not have the rushing volume to make it up. Jalen Hurts with his toosh push and rushing upside arguably has more of chance of finishing higher than Burrow.

In fairness to MOP, I think there are plenty better fades than Burrow. Even in 4 pt TD, 16 games of healthy Burrow is gonna come somewhat close to Hurts at least, and plenty close to those immediately after. And don't disrespect Burrow's rushing too much. Jaylen Hurts he is clearly not, but Joey B has way better wheels than your avg pocket passer and gets a meaningful amount of rushing stats every year.

Yeah there are probably worse players to fade but he's so close to Hurts' ADP, and the Konami code QB cheat is for real.

In 4 pt pass TD leagues w/1 pts per 25 pass yds last season,

Burrow - 373 pts (QB3)
Hurts - 315 pts (QB8)

The cheat code doesn't apply as much when Hurts passes for just 2900/18 - that has to improve bigtime for him to be among the big dawgs this year, whereas Burrow just needs to stay healthy.

Burrow needs to stay healthy and Cincy needs to repeat their insanely high passing rate. Doable but most would say it's a regression candidate.

Hurts was QB8 on a Philly team that had a ridiculous amount of favorable game script situations and did not need to pass a lot. Thats telling. His stats per pass attempt were elite. Almost every expert expects regression and for Philly to pass more. But there will still be a ton of tush pushes and QB scrambles.
 
Hurts or Lamar
One of these dudes is a ridiculous dual threat QB. The other dude is Hurts.

I see a 2-tier chasm between them. In 6 point PaTD leagues, & have Burrow much closer to LJax than Hurts.

That said, I expect the Eagles to pass more this year.

Are 6 pt passing leagues the default now? I'm not talking about 6 pt passing leagues. If they are the default then my bad.
 
Kyren - no passing game upside. He has volume but the amount of volume he had last year will be hard to repeat. His rushing efficiency declined a lot last year.

Burrow - Give me Jalen and his rushing upside around the same ADP.

Garrett Wilson - The Jets will probably be bad and if they arent it will be because they are successful at rushing the ball. Just hard to see the upside here.

DJ Moore - Career low YPRR last year. New coaching staff went out and drafted 2 young pass catchers. His ADP is too high for this ambiguity.

Sutton - In 7 seasons, this guy has not finished higher than WR24 in PPG. He's ranked higher or equally with guys like Jameson Williams, Tet, Devonta Smith who have a lot more upside. This is the kind of boring safe mid-round pick that gets you 7th place in your league.
Burrow is QB5 off the board most of the time
4,900/43 TD
4.475/35TD
4,611/34TD
3 of his last 4 seasons, 1 was cut short by injury

What other QB has those type of passing numbers?
They're Dan Marino level, pass on Burrow at your own risk

It's only a fade at ADP. Burrow had a career high TD rate last year which will be tough to repeat. High TD rates historically regress the year after. It's lamost automatic. There will likely be regression here because last year's passing volume will be hard to repeat. And he does not have the rushing volume to make it up. Jalen Hurts with his toosh push and rushing upside arguably has more of chance of finishing higher than Burrow.

In fairness to MOP, I think there are plenty better fades than Burrow. Even in 4 pt TD, 16 games of healthy Burrow is gonna come somewhat close to Hurts at least, and plenty close to those immediately after. And don't disrespect Burrow's rushing too much. Jaylen Hurts he is clearly not, but Joey B has way better wheels than your avg pocket passer and gets a meaningful amount of rushing stats every year.

Yeah there are probably worse players to fade but he's so close to Hurts' ADP, and the Konami code QB cheat is for real.

In 4 pt pass TD leagues w/1 pts per 25 pass yds last season,

Burrow - 373 pts (QB3)
Hurts - 315 pts (QB8)

The cheat code doesn't apply as much when Hurts passes for just 2900/18 - that has to improve bigtime for him to be among the big dawgs this year, whereas Burrow just needs to stay healthy.

Burrow needs to stay healthy and Cincy needs to repeat their insanely high passing rate. Doable but most would say it's a regression candidate.

Hurts was QB8 on a Philly team that had a ridiculous amount of favorable game script situations and did not need to pass a lot. Thats telling. His stats per pass attempt were elite. Almost every expert expects regression and for Philly to pass more. But there will still be a ton of tush pushes and QB scrambles.

Fair, but even if you give Hurts 3500/25 instead of 2900/18 last year w/o touching his gaudy rushing metrics, he'd still have scored less than Burrow (367 pts).

Bottom line, though... In any given year, including this one, I'd rank Hurts (slightly) higher than Burrow in standard formats, so I agree with your initial premise. But it's not by a ton - and for me at least, I discount Burrow just a bit extra for being on a schwag org who will depend on him way too much to make magic - that kind of pressure and usage cuts both ways sometimes.
 
Are 6 pt passing leagues the default now? I'm not talking about 6 pt passing leagues. If they are the default then my bad.
Every league I’m in has 6 point PaTD. ROC is 6 pt PaTD, all 5 of my dynasty leagues are 6 pt PaTD and my home league is as well. I don’t speak for the masses, so not sure what the default is.

I haven’t played in a 4-pointer for years,,
but I did concede above that the rushing QBs are significantly more valuable in those. Konami code QB is legit in those for sure.

I do have Hurts highly ranked in all formats, but I think LJax is the FF QB1 while hurts is more the QB5

But you’re correct that scoring has everything to do with it.
 
Puka Nacua—Stafford was the 19th ranked fantasy qb last season—and I think he’s probably going to decline further. Secondly—Davante adams cut into Garrett Wilson’s production last season—and I don’t see how he won’t cut into Puka’s. Lastly—Puka himself seems to have some injury issues.

Tyreek Hill—not going to discount his talent—it’s certainly there. However, at the end of last season—he didn’t seem interested in staying with the dolphins. I also think that if Tua gets hurt—he and waddle are the guys who get impacted the most. If Tua gets hurt—and achane is healthy enough to be on the field—I trust Achane’s role more than I do Hill’s or waddles. I actually think Achane could be a huge value in PPR leagues if his injury concern drops him much. His injury was sustained 3 weeks before week 1. Even if he misses a couple weeks to get fully healthy—I’d take 11 weeks of a healthy achane over all but maybe 4-5 rbs in ppr formats.

Omarion Hampton—i think he’ll start off the season doing well with Najee recovering from his eye injury. However, the Chargers didn’t give Najee Harris a fully guaranteed 5+ million dollar contract for a year to not use him. Harris was the 20th ranked rb last season in 0.5 ppr.

Jayden Daniels—I think he’ll be really good—but I just dont think he’s worth drafting where he’s going. He had more “true” rushing attempts than any other qb last season. Technically Hurts had 2 more rushes—but if you factor in how many of those are tush pushes—Daniels had more real attempts. I just don’t know if they want to expose their franchise quarterback to that much injury risk. Secondly—He’s going before Hurts—and I think Hurts is primed to improve on his performance last season—while I think Jayden could regress a bit. Hurts passing numbers were not great last season. I think there is room for him to improve there—while still doing his thing in regards to rushing tds. I personaly have the qb tiers as: Allen/Lamar as (tier 1), Hurts/Burrow/Daniels-(tier 2)—in the order that I listed them. Being that Daniels is getting drafted as a back end Tier one/top end tier 2–when I have him on the back end of Tier 2–I just don’t think he’ll return much value.

Chubba Hubbard—the dude took advantage of opportunity last season—and ran away with it. Good for him for doing so. I just don’t know if I buy that the same “magic” will happen again this season. Carolina’s offense showed some signs of life towards the end of the season last year—but I don’t know if I trust that. This one is more of a gut instinct thing more than it is data driven.
 
Kyren - no passing game upside. He has volume but the amount of volume he had last year will be hard to repeat. His rushing efficiency declined a lot last year.

Burrow - Give me Jalen and his rushing upside around the same ADP.

Garrett Wilson - The Jets will probably be bad and if they arent it will be because they are successful at rushing the ball. Just hard to see the upside here.

DJ Moore - Career low YPRR last year. New coaching staff went out and drafted 2 young pass catchers. His ADP is too high for this ambiguity.

Sutton - In 7 seasons, this guy has not finished higher than WR24 in PPG. He's ranked higher or equally with guys like Jameson Williams, Tet, Devonta Smith who have a lot more upside. This is the kind of boring safe mid-round pick that gets you 7th place in your league.
Burrow is QB5 off the board most of the time
4,900/43 TD
4.475/35TD
4,611/34TD
3 of his last 4 seasons, 1 was cut short by injury

What other QB has those type of passing numbers?
They're Dan Marino level, pass on Burrow at your own risk

It's only a fade at ADP. Burrow had a career high TD rate last year which will be tough to repeat. High TD rates historically regress the year after. It's lamost automatic. There will likely be regression here because last year's passing volume will be hard to repeat. And he does not have the rushing volume to make it up. Jalen Hurts with his toosh push and rushing upside arguably has more of chance of finishing higher than Burrow.

In fairness to MOP, I think there are plenty better fades than Burrow. Even in 4 pt TD, 16 games of healthy Burrow is gonna come somewhat close to Hurts at least, and plenty close to those immediately after. And don't disrespect Burrow's rushing too much. Jaylen Hurts he is clearly not, but Joey B has way better wheels than your avg pocket passer and gets a meaningful amount of rushing stats every year.

Yeah there are probably worse players to fade but he's so close to Hurts' ADP, and the Konami code QB cheat is for real.

In 4 pt pass TD leagues w/1 pts per 25 pass yds last season,

Burrow - 373 pts (QB3)
Hurts - 315 pts (QB8)

The cheat code doesn't apply as much when Hurts passes for just 2900/18 - that has to improve bigtime for him to be among the big dawgs this year, whereas Burrow just needs to stay healthy.

Burrow needs to stay healthy and Cincy needs to repeat their insanely high passing rate. Doable but most would say it's a regression candidate.

Hurts was QB8 on a Philly team that had a ridiculous amount of favorable game script situations and did not need to pass a lot. Thats telling. His stats per pass attempt were elite. Almost every expert expects regression and for Philly to pass more. But there will still be a ton of tush pushes and QB scrambles.

Fair, but even if you give Hurts 3500/25 instead of 2900/18 last year w/o touching his gaudy rushing metrics, he'd still have scored less than Burrow (367 pts).

Bottom line, though... In any given year, including this one, I'd rank Hurts (slightly) higher than Burrow in standard formats, so I agree with your initial premise. But it's not by a ton - and for me at least, I discount Burrow just a bit extra for being on a schwag org who will depend on him way too much to make magic - that kind of pressure and usage cuts both ways sometimes.

Your last sentence is one of many reason why regression is a thing you can count on. But yeah it's not by a ton for me either really. You can do so much worse than having Burrow at QB.

But the definition of a fade is someone you are simply not drafting because of a better option at around the same pick. Thats why I included it.
 
Puka Nacua—Stafford was the 19th ranked fantasy qb last season—and I think he’s probably going to decline further. Secondly—Davante adams cut into Garrett Wilson’s production last season—and I don’t see how he won’t cut into Puka’s. Lastly—Puka himself seems to have some injury issues.

Tyreek Hill—not going to discount his talent—it’s certainly there. However, at the end of last season—he didn’t seem interested in staying with the dolphins. I also think that if Tua gets hurt—he and waddle are the guys who get impacted the most. If Tua gets hurt—and achane is healthy enough to be on the field—I trust Achane’s role more than I do Hill’s or waddles. I actually think Achane could be a huge value in PPR leagues if his injury concern drops him much. His injury was sustained 3 weeks before week 1. Even if he misses a couple weeks to get fully healthy—I’d take 11 weeks of a healthy achane over all but maybe 4-5 rbs in ppr formats.

Omarion Hampton—i think he’ll start off the season doing well with Najee recovering from his eye injury. However, the Chargers didn’t give Najee Harris a fully guaranteed 5+ million dollar contract for a year to not use him. Harris was the 20th ranked rb last season in 0.5 ppr.

Jayden Daniels—I think he’ll be really good—but I just dont think he’s worth drafting where he’s going. He had more “true” rushing attempts than any other qb last season. Technically Hurts had 2 more rushes—but if you factor in how many of those are tush pushes—Daniels had more real attempts. I just don’t know if they want to expose their franchise quarterback to that much injury risk. Secondly—He’s going before Hurts—and I think Hurts is primed to improve on his performance last season—while I think Jayden could regress a bit. Hurts passing numbers were not great last season. I think there is room for him to improve there—while still doing his thing in regards to rushing tds. I personaly have the qb tiers as: Allen/Lamar as (tier 1), Hurts/Burrow/Daniels-(tier 2)—in the order that I listed them. Being that Daniels is getting drafted as a back end Tier one/top end tier 2–when I have him on the back end of Tier 2–I just don’t think he’ll return much value.

Chubba Hubbard—the dude took advantage of opportunity last season—and ran away with it. Good for him for doing so. I just don’t know if I buy that the same “magic” will happen again this season. Carolina’s offense showed some signs of life towards the end of the season last year—but I don’t know if I trust that. This one is more of a gut instinct thing more than it is data driven.

Agreed with all of this except Nahjee. Teams pay to sit players all the time. E'ry week in e'ry year. Sunk cost fallacy they aren't beholden to, at least not the good teams. There is room for Nah to come in and take signficant reps of his own, but that's more on Harbs wanting to run 4 of every 5 downs if he could. Nah is perhaps more a threat to Herbert than anyone else when he returns... That's assuming one-eyed Will does return and that Omar is real deal Holyfield, which still remains to be seen.
 
Kyren - no passing game upside. He has volume but the amount of volume he had last year will be hard to repeat. His rushing efficiency declined a lot last year.

Burrow - Give me Jalen and his rushing upside around the same ADP.

Garrett Wilson - The Jets will probably be bad and if they arent it will be because they are successful at rushing the ball. Just hard to see the upside here.

DJ Moore - Career low YPRR last year. New coaching staff went out and drafted 2 young pass catchers. His ADP is too high for this ambiguity.

Sutton - In 7 seasons, this guy has not finished higher than WR24 in PPG. He's ranked higher or equally with guys like Jameson Williams, Tet, Devonta Smith who have a lot more upside. This is the kind of boring safe mid-round pick that gets you 7th place in your league.
Burrow is QB5 off the board most of the time
4,900/43 TD
4.475/35TD
4,611/34TD
3 of his last 4 seasons, 1 was cut short by injury

What other QB has those type of passing numbers?
They're Dan Marino level, pass on Burrow at your own risk

It's only a fade at ADP. Burrow had a career high TD rate last year which will be tough to repeat. High TD rates historically regress the year after. It's lamost automatic. There will likely be regression here because last year's passing volume will be hard to repeat. And he does not have the rushing volume to make it up. Jalen Hurts with his toosh push and rushing upside arguably has more of chance of finishing higher than Burrow.

In fairness to MOP, I think there are plenty better fades than Burrow. Even in 4 pt TD, 16 games of healthy Burrow is gonna come somewhat close to Hurts at least, and plenty close to those immediately after. And don't disrespect Burrow's rushing too much. Jaylen Hurts he is clearly not, but Joey B has way better wheels than your avg pocket passer and gets a meaningful amount of rushing stats every year.

Yeah there are probably worse players to fade but he's so close to Hurts' ADP, and the Konami code QB cheat is for real.

In 4 pt pass TD leagues w/1 pts per 25 pass yds last season,

Burrow - 373 pts (QB3)
Hurts - 315 pts (QB8)

The cheat code doesn't apply as much when Hurts passes for just 2900/18 - that has to improve bigtime for him to be among the big dawgs this year, whereas Burrow just needs to stay healthy.
I feel like this is a bit of a bad faith argument. Jalen Hurts played 14 games to Burrow's 17. Hurts was the better QB in PPG.

Burrow also had the 20th most pass attempts in NFL history, and the Eagles had the most rush attempts of any team since the 1984 Bears. Regression to the mean on both counts is basically a lock.
 
Chubba Hubbard—the dude took advantage of opportunity last season—and ran away with it
Without Brooks doesn’t he have the same opportunity this season? And an improved offense, too. Rico having a larger role is all that concerns me. They paid Chuba to be the man.
I think that dowdle will be a factor—and I also think that defenses are going to focus more in on him. I just don’t really “believe” in Carolina’s offense enough to really want any of their players in the top 50.
 
Kyren - no passing game upside. He has volume but the amount of volume he had last year will be hard to repeat. His rushing efficiency declined a lot last year.

Burrow - Give me Jalen and his rushing upside around the same ADP.

Garrett Wilson - The Jets will probably be bad and if they arent it will be because they are successful at rushing the ball. Just hard to see the upside here.

DJ Moore - Career low YPRR last year. New coaching staff went out and drafted 2 young pass catchers. His ADP is too high for this ambiguity.

Sutton - In 7 seasons, this guy has not finished higher than WR24 in PPG. He's ranked higher or equally with guys like Jameson Williams, Tet, Devonta Smith who have a lot more upside. This is the kind of boring safe mid-round pick that gets you 7th place in your league.
Burrow is QB5 off the board most of the time
4,900/43 TD
4.475/35TD
4,611/34TD
3 of his last 4 seasons, 1 was cut short by injury

What other QB has those type of passing numbers?
They're Dan Marino level, pass on Burrow at your own risk

It's only a fade at ADP. Burrow had a career high TD rate last year which will be tough to repeat. High TD rates historically regress the year after. It's lamost automatic. There will likely be regression here because last year's passing volume will be hard to repeat. And he does not have the rushing volume to make it up. Jalen Hurts with his toosh push and rushing upside arguably has more of chance of finishing higher than Burrow.

In fairness to MOP, I think there are plenty better fades than Burrow. Even in 4 pt TD, 16 games of healthy Burrow is gonna come somewhat close to Hurts at least, and plenty close to those immediately after. And don't disrespect Burrow's rushing too much. Jaylen Hurts he is clearly not, but Joey B has way better wheels than your avg pocket passer and gets a meaningful amount of rushing stats every year.

Yeah there are probably worse players to fade but he's so close to Hurts' ADP, and the Konami code QB cheat is for real.

In 4 pt pass TD leagues w/1 pts per 25 pass yds last season,

Burrow - 373 pts (QB3)
Hurts - 315 pts (QB8)

The cheat code doesn't apply as much when Hurts passes for just 2900/18 - that has to improve bigtime for him to be among the big dawgs this year, whereas Burrow just needs to stay healthy.
I feel like this is a bit of a bad faith argument. Jalen Hurts played 14 games to Burrow's 17. Hurts was the better QB in PPG.

Burrow also had the 20th most pass attempts in NFL history, and the Eagles had the most rush attempts of any team since the 1984 Bears. Regression to the mean on both counts is basically a lock.

More lazy than bad faith. Appreciate the added context.
 
15 - Brock Bowers: What have we learned about top-15 TEs by ADP over the past 15 years? Well, we’ve learned that they can be worth the cost if their last name is Kelce or Gronkowski. I suppose it’s possible that Bowers is also a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but I’ll let someone else make that bet.

23 - Garrett Wilson: Cue the South Park underwear gnomes ... “Step 1: Be the primary receiving target for the NFL’s 45th-best passer. Step 2: ??? Step 3: Profit!”

26 - Tyreek Hill: “Yo man, I’m just here so I don’t get fined.”

40 - Alvin Kamara: Every year, there are about two NFL offenses so inept that, like WarGames, the only winning move is not to play them. I have yet to see a convincing argument that the 2025 Saints won’t be one of these.

46 - Joe Burrow: He’s going QB4 ahead of Hurts in most 6-point pass TD leagues. I feel like drafting a guy one slot below his fantasy finish in a year when he literally won the passing triple crown seems ambitious, but hey, what do I know?
 
5 guys in the top-50 I want no part of are:

Breece Hall-I think he's vastly overrated as a talent, and I think he's in a 3-man RBBC, where he is possibly losing 3rd downs, and certainly losing GL. He might as well not even be on my board at all, because I'm not looking at him until like round 8, where he'll be LONG gone. I honestly have him closer to Braelon Allen, then to what his current ADP is.

TreVeyon Henderson-I don't hate him, but I think people are being too optimistic, both about how much work he'll get, and how good NE's offense will be. He'll have some spike weeks, sure, but I think he's not a guy I'm targeting, especially after his ADP spike because of this preseason.

Chuba Hubbard-I think the team will put more on Bryce Young's plate, and I think Hubbard will see more competition for work from Dowdle, and Hubbard is a liability in the pass game. I don't hate him, but last year feels like his ceiling.

George Pickens-I think he takes a clear backseat to Lamb, and I do wonder if he's maybe more of another Mike Williams than his supporters want to admit, where he makes some spectacular catches, but that's pretty much all he does. I think he's a WR3 if you prioritize QB or TE early.

Jonathan Taylor-I also think he's an overrated talent, and I also worry about his durability as he's missed a month in 3 straight seasons now. He's also on a team I think is gonna be awful (regardless of QB, though I think they picked the right one) and I think his pass game involvement is little to none. I see him as a middling 3rd rounder, so I'll have zero shares I'm sure.
 
Joe Burrow: He’s going QB4 ahead of Hurts in most ***6-point pass TD*** leagues.

Someone didn't read upthread before posting. :)

Adding SP Homeleague *6pt TD*, 1 per 20 pass yds context, 2024 PPG...

Burrow - overall 522 pts (QB2) - 30.7 PPG

Hurts - overall 390 pts (QB10) - 27.5 PPG (regular season), 28.68 PPG across four playoff games

Mind your scoring systems, fellas, when it comes to QBs.
 
5 guys in the top-50 I want no part of are:

Breece Hall-I think he's vastly overrated as a talent, and I think he's in a 3-man RBBC, where he is possibly losing 3rd downs, and certainly losing GL. He might as well not even be on my board at all, because I'm not looking at him until like round 8, where he'll be LONG gone. I honestly have him closer to Braelon Allen, then to what his current ADP is.

TreVeyon Henderson-I don't hate him, but I think people are being too optimistic, both about how much work he'll get, and how good NE's offense will be. He'll have some spike weeks, sure, but I think he's not a guy I'm targeting, especially after his ADP spike because of this preseason.

Chuba Hubbard-I think the team will put more on Bryce Young's plate, and I think Hubbard will see more competition for work from Dowdle, and Hubbard is a liability in the pass game. I don't hate him, but last year feels like his ceiling.

George Pickens-I think he takes a clear backseat to Lamb, and I do wonder if he's maybe more of another Mike Williams than his supporters want to admit, where he makes some spectacular catches, but that's pretty much all he does. I think he's a WR3 if you prioritize QB or TE early.

Jonathan Taylor-I also think he's an overrated talent, and I also worry about his durability as he's missed a month in 3 straight seasons now. He's also on a team I think is gonna be awful (regardless of QB, though I think they picked the right one) and I think his pass game involvement is little to none. I see him as a middling 3rd rounder, so I'll have zero shares I'm sure.

Agreed on all of this, except two details,

- I hold JT's talent in higher regard as an individual player, and

- While I think we should temper/discount all rookies this year and every year, I am taking an exception for anyone whose name rhymes with fook ya!
 
Joe Burrow: He’s going QB4 ahead of Hurts in most ***6-point pass TD*** leagues.

Someone didn't read upthread before posting. :)

Adding SP Homeleague *6pt TD*, 1 per 20 pass yds context, 2024 PPG...

Burrow - overall 522 pts (QB2) - 30.7 PPG

Hurts - overall 390 pts (QB10) - 27.5 PPG (regular season), 28.68 PPG across four playoff games

Mind your scoring systems, fellas, when it comes to QBs.

Yeah, I get it. If Burrow happens to win the passing triple crown again, there’s a good chance that in such leagues he’ll more than pay off a QB4 draft cost. But that’s not what I’d call the likeliest outcome.

This does not mean I’d take Hurts over him in such a format - which would arguably be more egregious. ¿Por qué debería elegir?
 
5 guys in the top-50 I want no part of are:

Breece Hall-I think he's vastly overrated as a talent, and I think he's in a 3-man RBBC, where he is possibly losing 3rd downs, and certainly losing GL. He might as well not even be on my board at all, because I'm not looking at him until like round 8, where he'll be LONG gone. I honestly have him closer to Braelon Allen, then to what his current ADP is.

TreVeyon Henderson-I don't hate him, but I think people are being too optimistic, both about how much work he'll get, and how good NE's offense will be. He'll have some spike weeks, sure, but I think he's not a guy I'm targeting, especially after his ADP spike because of this preseason.

Chuba Hubbard-I think the team will put more on Bryce Young's plate, and I think Hubbard will see more competition for work from Dowdle, and Hubbard is a liability in the pass game. I don't hate him, but last year feels like his ceiling.

George Pickens-I think he takes a clear backseat to Lamb, and I do wonder if he's maybe more of another Mike Williams than his supporters want to admit, where he makes some spectacular catches, but that's pretty much all he does. I think he's a WR3 if you prioritize QB or TE early.

Jonathan Taylor-I also think he's an overrated talent, and I also worry about his durability as he's missed a month in 3 straight seasons now. He's also on a team I think is gonna be awful (regardless of QB, though I think they picked the right one) and I think his pass game involvement is little to none. I see him as a middling 3rd rounder, so I'll have zero shares I'm sure.

I agree with a lot of what is being said here. Taylor seems to be going in the second round of most of the drafts that I’ve seen—so I won’t be rostering him—but I do think that a second/third round ADP could be justified due to volume.

I do disagree with the Breece Hall sentiment. Most of the recent PPR drafts that I’ve seen—he’s going in the late 3rd to early 4th—and I like his upside there. The Jets were an absolute dumpster fire last season. They had a diva qb that didn’t play in mini-camp and got hurt very early in the season, and were sabotaged by an inept coaching staff. They were forced to start qb’s like Zach Wilson, Trevor Simeon, and Tim Boyle. While I didn’t “buy” the Breece hype last season that the fantasy experts were pumping out there—-like legit he was going in the first half of the first round—I do think that a lot of Breece hate is due to him not living up to first round hype last season. Braelon Allen was there last season as well. Even with that dumpster fire of a situation—Breece finished the season playing 16 games—and finished the season as the RB 16 or 17 based on if your league does half ppr or full ppr. He only averaged 13 rushing attempts and 4.75 targets per game last season to accomplish finishing that high. I think Justin Fields and the coaching staff are huge upgrades from what they had last year. I think the mobility of Fields actually helps the Jets running backs as it makes their running game more dynamic. Look at what Saquon did with Hurts last season, look at what Henry did with Lamar. I don’t see his touches decreasing at all (or by much at all)—and even if they decrease—I think the quality of the touches will be far better than they ever were last year. I think it’s very possible that both he and Braelon perform or outperform their ADP’s. You mention that he’s a part of a committe—but I think that there are very few running backs that won’t technically be a part of a committe this year. I actually hope that the Breece sentiment continues to gain more and more negativity so that I can grab him cheaper in my draft this weekend.
 
This does not mean I’d take Hurts over [Burrow] in such a format

You did state 6 pt per TD pass originally when you faded Burrow relative to Hurts... Interpreting then you mean 25 yds per pt vs. 20 yds...

Agreed that is meaningful too and definitely draws them closer.

Main takeaway, IMO, here, way beyond Burrow v. Hurts is what's the scoring system? That's outside the context of this particular thread, except when it isn't. ;)
 
DJ Moore - Career low YPRR last year. New coaching staff went out and drafted 2 young pass catchers. His ADP is too high for this ambiguity.
Agree to disagree here. He is the alpha WR in CHI for 2025 and FantasyPros has him WR20. Last year he finished WR15 with Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and a rookie QB. CHI is going to ensure the ball is in his hands a decent amount. Perhaps the younger WR's pass him next year, but not this year.
 
Terry McLaurin #44 - finishes of WR16, WR19, WR25, WR28, and WR29 prior to his WR7 breakout last year. And now he's holding out - no thank you.
 
I agree on Achane and Tyreek.

My contribution to the thread is AJ Brown. I’m worried about the hammy. AJs tough as nails, but I think this injury is maybe more serious/nagging than initially thought. I could easily see him missing more than his usual 2-3 games and this hampering his production all season long. I hate hamstring injuries on WRs.

How high are you drafting DSmith as a result of this analysis? I like actionable info.
 
15 - Brock Bowers: What have we learned about top-15 TEs by ADP over the past 15 years? Well, we’ve learned that they can be worth the cost if their last name is Kelce or Gronkowski. I suppose it’s possible that Bowers is also a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but I’ll let someone else make that bet.
In every game I have watched, pro and college (with a loaded Georgia team), Bowers has looked like the best player on the field. At any position. I can't say that about Kelce or Gronk, at this point in their careers.
 
Baker- Godwin can't even jog yet
I happily took the panic discount on Baker today in the 10th - he was fine with McMillan & Otton for a stretch last year. Evans is still beastly, White’s expected to be ok for game 1, and he can still run more than folks expect. And he’s got Egbuka.

I’m with you on the rest of the list, but Baker should be ok. I hope. :oldunsure:
I guess value is all relative. Seems like maybe with the injury news Baker has fallen back a bit in ADP/QB rankings. Round 10 is pretty palatable though I suppose it does matter to me what other QBs were out there.
 
Drake London 158 targets, 1,271 and jumped from 2 TD in '23 to 9 last year
I'll take the under across the board

I'll respectfully take the under on targets and the over on both yardage and TDs for young Mike Evans.

Penix >>> washed 2024 Cousins
I was high on Penix when they drafted him
Do you realize how late he is being drafted in FF?
He might go undrafted in some leagues
I am curious about Penix. He has a great online but I am worried about who he is passing to besides Drake and the RBs. Mooney is hurt. Pitts is hurt. Who else is there?

ETA: Pitts was cleared and is back to practicing
 
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Drake London 158 targets, 1,271 and jumped from 2 TD in '23 to 9 last year
I'll take the under across the board
I think a lot of that can be accounted for by them getting rid of Arthur Smith, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heneicke. The Falcons have a great offensive line, great running game a top 10 drafted QB and 1 healthy competent WR. I think London might lead the league in targets.

Brock Bowers- new Sheriff in town and more mouths to feed, a RB that apparently is going to take the NFL by storm
See Sam LaPorta, his rookie season made him the #1 TE in FF, Bowers will easily come in under his stats from a year ago
There are 3 differences in LaPorta vs Bowers.

1. LaPorta's big rookie season was very TD dependent. 120 targets, 10 TDs to Bowers 153 targets, 4 TDs. Bowers is a focal point of the offense and if anything could exceed last season with some better TD luck.

2. Amon Ra, Jamo, Gibbs, Montgomery vs Jeanty, Jakobi. The level of competition for targets and TDs is so different.

3. LaPorta was a good prospect. Bowers was an elite prospect. In 4 years of playing at Iowa, Sam got 1700 yards and 5 TDs. In 3 years at Georgia, Brock had 2500 yards and 31 TDs. As a true freshman Bowers had 900 yards and 14 TDs. He had almost 200 yards and 5 TDs rushing in his career at Georgia. I just don't think we should be comparing them. We now have 4 straight years of Bowers playing high level football and in all 4 years, he dominated. He was the best receiving TE in college football for 3 straight seasons and then was the best receiving TE in the NFL as a rookie.
 
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Pitts is hurt.
He is? Do you have a link?
I heard similar but then I see this Sports Illustrated entry in the last 24 hours

-If Pitts really has a serious injury that is slowly coming into the open as the season is about to start, this writer Childs should be fired
 
BTJ - His true monster target share came with Mac Jones at QB, not Trevor. And Travis Hunter as a 1B (or potentially 1A) feels like a cap to his ceiling.
Jayden - I'm just always wary of 2nd year QB's who had significant success their rookie year. DC's have a full offseason to review NFL film of him and can come better prepared. In short - it's their move.
Olave - Surprised he's going as high as he is given 1) the QB situation he has to deal with and 2) his concussion history. I mean if we're docking Tua...
DJ Moore - The last 2 years have seen the Bears bring in Odunze, Loveland, Luther.
Walker III - Has struggled to stay healthy. Practice time is already being managed closely. He's goes right behind James Cook?
 
De'Von Achane - pretty much what everyone else said. Honestly I don't like any of the RBs in this late 1st early 2nd range, mostly because I feel it's the best WR value range in the draft; Puka, Nabers, BTJ, London. Just about everyone will love a WR or two here in the draft, and IMO they all could potentially finish as the overall WR1.

Tyreek - again, seems like I'm not alone here. I'm down on the offense as a whole. He is a headcase and the fact he's already acting out and the season hasn't started is a bad sign IMO. Vegas is also absurdly low on him. Maybe lower than they should be. But when they are still accepting even money bets on him being under 1k yards on the season, I think everyone should be seeing this as a red flag.

Bowers - thought I would be alone on this one but looks like Mr. Irrelevant at least agrees. I think he's just priced at his absolute ceiling, and he's still scoring less than the player's he's being taken around. This can be countered by the scoring over replacement argument, which is a valid one. I just have a hard time taking him over BTJ and London in the early 2nd, especially when you can get Kittle two rounds later with similar scoring over replacement and in a spot in the draft where I am very low on everyone else in that range (Kamara, Breece Hall, unsigned Terry, MHJ, etc.)

Sam Laporta - similar arguments to Bowers, but worse in all of them. He's being priced as the end of that Bowers/McBride/Kittle tier, whereas I see him as a full tier+ less. Could he return to his 2023 scoring and pay off? It's possible. But it feels like a long shot, and I'm not paying a price for him where he absolutely needs to do that to hit value. LaPorta is the first TE where I draw the "if you didn't get one early, better off grabbing two late" line.

DJ Moore - I flip flop on this one, but I have a hard time convincing myself to take him so far in any draft. First off, it's a crowded offense with him, Odunze, Burden, Kmet, and Loveland. I don't necessarily avoid these situations, but I do tend to have much better results taking the cheaper options in them and here Moore is priced the highest of the group. And second, 4th round of redraft leagues is where I tend to pivot from safer picks with higher floors and lean towards guys with higher ceilings. I think even if Moore leads the Bears offense, his ceiling will be capped by the crowded room and what will likely be a "spread it around, take the safe/open look" BJ offense helmed by a QB coming off a shaky rookie season. Meanwhile I think the upside of guys like Pickens and Egbuka are just better. I think I could even sell myself more on Hunter, Ridley, or Pearsall here just because of situation and path to targets.
 
Pitts is hurt.
He is? Do you have a link?
I heard similar but then I see this Sports Illustrated entry in the last 24 hours

-If Pitts really has a serious injury that is slowly coming into the open as the season is about to start, this writer Childs should be fired
Ok, that is on me. I missed where he returned. He had missed OTAs with a foot injury but looks like he got full clearance late July.
 
3 more

Jonathan Taylor-2nd rd? I'm too worried the colts will be a mess since they are tanking for Arch

Travis Kelce-old.I'm not thinking he'll rebound.

J.K. Dobbins-he may be fine, assuming he doesm't get hurt but this will likely be RBBC
Coach is fighting for his life. Jones is far better in that offense. Taylor is worth the 2nd round draft capital.
 
Some already mentioned that I agree with:
Achane - I'm not touching any Dolphins this year. This team is about to implode. IMO, Achane in the 1st is the worst pick of the year and it's not close.
Kamara - Another really bad team
AJ Brown - The hammy is a concern and the offense revolves around Saquon
Puka - Rumors are Adam getting just as much love and who knows about Stafford
Bowers - No chance of equaling his ADP

Some that are new:
Daniels - Especially if no Terry. He will be this years Stroud. Maybe not as drastic.
Murray - Just think he's had enough time to shine and it's just not there

CMC- Nope. Not going to do it
Irving - Just not feeling it. Give me Jacobs.
Connor - Think Benson gets more work as age settles in for James

Nabers - skill is there. QB is there. I just don't think this team is good and won't be playing for much down the stretch
Diggs - I don't get the hype. Yes he is good, but he complained in far better situations in the past. This is a hard pass for me.
 
DJ Moore - The last 2 years have seen the Bears bring in Odunze, Loveland, Luther.
And they also let Keenan Allen leave. On a per snap basis, Allen was getting the most targets last year. DJ went early to mid 5th in all 4 recent FBG home league drafts, and I think it's well deserved.
 
Some idle reactions....sorry if Honda; I've skimmed

As noted, in 6pt passing leagues Burrow can break your league. In a related point, this is why no injury discount for Higgins is present; injury risk is offset by a ginormous ceiling.

I'm aligned with discounting Kyren and Adams but not Puka. I think Puka will still get his via JimmyG or a hobbled Stafford (and no I don't own any shares).

Lastly, disagree on DJ Moore. I think its a mistake to draw negative conclusions based on 2024, a year in which there was effectively no coaching staff.

I don't think Sutton is a horrible pick...but I agree there's limited upside at his adp.
 
I agree on Achane and Tyreek.

My contribution to the thread is AJ Brown. I’m worried about the hammy. AJs tough as nails, but I think this injury is maybe more serious/nagging than initially thought. I could easily see him missing more than his usual 2-3 games and this hampering his production all season long. I hate hamstring injuries on WRs.

How high are you drafting DSmith as a result of this analysis? I like actionable info.
Depends how my draft breaks and what slot I’m drafting from, I’d consider him late 3rd/early 4th instead of an ADP OF 52, though, in general.

That said, if AJ and Devonta were still on the board in those spots, I’d snap up AJ im a heartbeat.
 
5 guys in the top-50 I want no part of are:

Breece Hall-I think he's vastly overrated as a talent, and I think he's in a 3-man RBBC, where he is possibly losing 3rd downs, and certainly losing GL. He might as well not even be on my board at all, because I'm not looking at him until like round 8, where he'll be LONG gone. I honestly have him closer to Braelon Allen, then to what his current ADP is.

TreVeyon Henderson-I don't hate him, but I think people are being too optimistic, both about how much work he'll get, and how good NE's offense will be. He'll have some spike weeks, sure, but I think he's not a guy I'm targeting, especially after his ADP spike because of this preseason.

Chuba Hubbard-I think the team will put more on Bryce Young's plate, and I think Hubbard will see more competition for work from Dowdle, and Hubbard is a liability in the pass game. I don't hate him, but last year feels like his ceiling.

George Pickens-I think he takes a clear backseat to Lamb, and I do wonder if he's maybe more of another Mike Williams than his supporters want to admit, where he makes some spectacular catches, but that's pretty much all he does. I think he's a WR3 if you prioritize QB or TE early.

Jonathan Taylor-I also think he's an overrated talent, and I also worry about his durability as he's missed a month in 3 straight seasons now. He's also on a team I think is gonna be awful (regardless of QB, though I think they picked the right one) and I think his pass game involvement is little to none. I see him as a middling 3rd rounder, so I'll have zero shares I'm sure.
Great list. Exception for me is Jonathan Taylor. Offense runs through him and he's a stud RB. One of my favorite 2nd round clicks.
 
I just don't think this team is good and won't be playing for much down the stretch
Not relevant for FF purposes. From weeks 14 thru 18, 4 of the top 6 WR's came from non-playoff teams (including Nabers himself).
Not only that—while I’m not sure how many games the Giants will win this season—I think they are going to be a lot more competitive than people think. Their defense should be much improved. I personally think that Nabers is priced just about right—especially for ppr leagues. His potential for volume is enormous.
 
5 guys in the top-50 I want no part of are:

Breece Hall-I think he's vastly overrated as a talent, and I think he's in a 3-man RBBC, where he is possibly losing 3rd downs, and certainly losing GL. He might as well not even be on my board at all, because I'm not looking at him until like round 8, where he'll be LONG gone. I honestly have him closer to Braelon Allen, then to what his current ADP is.

TreVeyon Henderson-I don't hate him, but I think people are being too optimistic, both about how much work he'll get, and how good NE's offense will be. He'll have some spike weeks, sure, but I think he's not a guy I'm targeting, especially after his ADP spike because of this preseason.

Chuba Hubbard-I think the team will put more on Bryce Young's plate, and I think Hubbard will see more competition for work from Dowdle, and Hubbard is a liability in the pass game. I don't hate him, but last year feels like his ceiling.

George Pickens-I think he takes a clear backseat to Lamb, and I do wonder if he's maybe more of another Mike Williams than his supporters want to admit, where he makes some spectacular catches, but that's pretty much all he does. I think he's a WR3 if you prioritize QB or TE early.

Jonathan Taylor-I also think he's an overrated talent, and I also worry about his durability as he's missed a month in 3 straight seasons now. He's also on a team I think is gonna be awful (regardless of QB, though I think they picked the right one) and I think his pass game involvement is little to none. I see him as a middling 3rd rounder, so I'll have zero shares I'm sure.
Great list. Exception for me is Jonathan Taylor. Offense runs through him and he's a stud RB. One of my favorite 2nd round clicks.
I think Taylor is pretty safe. As long as he's healthy, he is going to perform well. In that offense, he doesn't have mega upside but he's pretty safe IMO.
 
I just don't think this team is good and won't be playing for much down the stretch
Not relevant for FF purposes. From weeks 14 thru 18, 4 of the top 6 WR's came from non-playoff teams (including Nabers himself).
I dunno, could be relevant TBH. I don't think people should build their drafts around playoff schedules. But it's a fair concern since going to the 18 week season some playoff teams now are actually throwing in the towel and benching starters the last two games instead of just the last one. Also feels like some teams just kinda give up late in the season, and we saw some offenses that struggled through much of the season finally come alive. Could have been more than just the team on the other side of the field, maybe some of those troubled teams were finally finding a groove. But still noteworthy for sure. Thanks for pointing this out.

I do think Nabers will eat regardless of QB, schedule, week, phase of the moon, etc lol. He appears to be just that good.
 
NFFC ROC 12 team 3RR

(Puka & Kyren already mentioned)

26th overall - Tee Higgins. Yeah, I know he got paid, but unless money magically cures his recurring hamstring issues, this is way too high. Especially off last year. No injury discount? Cmon.

38 - Davonte Adams - same reasons I’m concerned about Puka & Kyren, plus age resembling his ADP.

46th - Ridley. I roster him in a dynasty league & hope the hypsters are right, but he’s not an elite WR. He’s been floating on that 1 awesome year of production. TEN isn’t going to be airing it out all Willy nilly and Ridley can still be contained by quality defensive backs. I like him, I just don’t want to pay a 4th round price for him.

52. Alvin Kamara. Saints are a mess, AK is old, and I want no part of that team. This is roughly the same ADP as Jameson Williams & Chuba Hubbard, and depending which way my draft is going I’d much rather have either.
I will remember this when I draft with you on Monday :-)
 

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