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5 Players You are Fading in the top 50 (redraft) (1 Viewer)

I'm kindof surprised to see so much Achane up in here. I think he is in line for another MONSTER year. The Dolphins "imploded" last year when Tua went down and Achane was still very much an elite fantasy RB. He's pretty bust proof given his extremely high-end receiving ability.

The injury is a tough bit of news to hear this week but I hope it isn't anything major. That is definitely something to monitor.
 
I'm kindof surprised to see so much Achane up in here. I think he is in line for another MONSTER year. The Dolphins "imploded" last year when Tua went down and Achane was still very much an elite fantasy RB. He's pretty bust proof given his extremely high-end receiving ability.

The injury is a tough bit of news to hear this week but I hope it isn't anything major. That is definitely something to monitor.
I completely agree with this. With Tua only playing 11 games last season—Achane finished as the RB5 in ppr leagues in fantasy. Even if Tua were to get hurt this season—I would argue that Zach Wilson is better than any backup that the dolphins had last season—and Achane would still be a big part of the mix. I trust his role regardless of Tua more than I do the Dolphins Wr’s. Achane got injured 3 weeks before the season starts—even if he misses a couple of games—I think he has a legitimate shot to finish as one of the top rbs in fantasy this season (especially in ppr).

I would argue the same thing about Breece Hall. I did not drink the kool-aid at all last year. I wasn’t going to spend a top 6 pick on him. However—with the fantasy negativity circulating around him—him going in the late 3rd/4th rounds (a 3-4 round discount from last season)—I like him there. The Jets were a complete mess last year with their diva qb not attending mini-camp—and then getting hurt very early in the season. You couple that with a completely inept coaching staff that effectively sabotaged the team— and Breece still finished the year as RB16/17 in ppr formats (based on if you do 0.5ppr or 1ppr)—which is effectively a top tier RB2. He did that on 13 rushing attempts a game and 4.75 targets per game—under those dumpster fire circumstances. Now you have a better and younger qb, and a coach (Glenn) that came from a team where both Gibbs and Montgomery thrived—and I really like 4th rounds Breece. I hope the negative sentiment continues around guys like Achane or Breece—-as these are two players that I’d love to grab at a bigger discount.
 
Puka Nacua & Kyren Williams simply because of their prices; roughly 2nd and 3rd rounders. I think its the end of Stafford and while they do have a capable back up in Jimmy G and he's been their QB all camp while Stafford just sits, I'm scared for what it would like be like to have him all season long. The RBs are going to get more work but less quality touches but given I might be able to get Josh Jacobs / Kamara / Irving / Cook roughly around or even after Williams makes him a hard pass for me
 
I just don't think this team is good and won't be playing for much down the stretch
Not relevant for FF purposes. From weeks 14 thru 18, 4 of the top 6 WR's came from non-playoff teams (including Nabers himself).
This is fair. Trust me, I LOVE Nabers. But I might pick a player I feel is more likely to be playing for something at the end of the year like ARSB, Puka or Collins.
 
I'm kindof surprised to see so much Achane up in here. I think he is in line for another MONSTER year. The Dolphins "imploded" last year when Tua went down and Achane was still very much an elite fantasy RB. He's pretty bust proof given his extremely high-end receiving ability.

The injury is a tough bit of news to hear this week but I hope it isn't anything major. That is definitely something to monitor.
Achane appears to be a player you either love as an owner or want no part of.
 
I'm kindof surprised to see so much Achane up in here. I think he is in line for another MONSTER year. The Dolphins "imploded" last year when Tua went down and Achane was still very much an elite fantasy RB. He's pretty bust proof given his extremely high-end receiving ability.

The injury is a tough bit of news to hear this week but I hope it isn't anything major. That is definitely something to monitor.
I completely agree with this. With Tua only playing 11 games last season—Achane finished as the RB5 in ppr leagues in fantasy. Even if Tua were to get hurt this season—I would argue that Zach Wilson is better than any backup that the dolphins had last season—and Achane would still be a big part of the mix. I trust his role regardless of Tua more than I do the Dolphins Wr’s. Achane got injured 3 weeks before the season starts—even if he misses a couple of games—I think he has a legitimate shot to finish as one of the top rbs in fantasy this season (especially in ppr).

I would argue the same thing about Breece Hall. I did not drink the kool-aid at all last year. I wasn’t going to spend a top 6 pick on him. However—with the fantasy negativity circulating around him—him going in the late 3rd/4th rounds (a 3-4 round discount from last season)—I like him there. The Jets were a complete mess last year with their diva qb not attending mini-camp—and then getting hurt very early in the season. You couple that with a completely inept coaching staff that effectively sabotaged the team— and Breece still finished the year as RB16/17 in ppr formats (based on if you do 0.5ppr or 1ppr)—which is effectively a top tier RB2. He did that on 13 rushing attempts a game and 4.75 targets per game—under those dumpster fire circumstances. Now you have a better and younger qb, and a coach (Glenn) that came from a team where both Gibbs and Montgomery thrived—and I really like 4th rounds Breece. I hope the negative sentiment continues around guys like Achane or Breece—-as these are two players that I’d love to grab at a bigger discount.
The Rodgers injury was 2023.
 
Hurts or Lamar
One of these dudes is a ridiculous dual threat QB. The other dude is Hurts.

I see a 2-tier chasm between them. In 6 point PaTD leagues, & have Burrow much closer to LJax than Hurts.

That said, I expect the Eagles to pass more this year.

Are 6 pt passing leagues the default now? I'm not talking about 6 pt passing leagues. If they are the default then my bad.
4 is the standard, 6 is the minority by FAR. Usually find 6 is mostly in inexperienced leagues.
 
Brock Bowers- new Sheriff in town and more mouths to feed, a RB that apparently is going to take the NFL by storm
See Sam LaPorta, his rookie season made him the #1 TE in FF, Bowers will easily come in under his stats from a year ago

I'll disagree here. The Raiders are not comparable to last year's Lions offensively. LaPorta got lost simply because of too many mouths to feed. That's not really the case in LV. Bowers also has an upgraded QB from last year, and Jeanty will only help keep pressure off.
153 targets last season
Pete Carroll is not going to throw to the TE 153 times this year
I combine that thought/opinion with this
The Raiders most rushing attempts last year was Mattison with 132 for a whopping 420 yards
Things are about to change in Las Vegas, I will take the under on Bowers this year
Pete Carroll isn't running the offense, though, and he never had Brock Bowers.

Chip Kelly LOVES Y-Cross and throwing to TEs. He will have them running the hell out of the ball and feeding Bowers. I've actually bumped Jeanty and Bowers (and, to a lesser extent, Geno Smith) up over what most analysts have these guys pegged for with Chip calling the plays.
 
Brock Bowers- new Sheriff in town and more mouths to feed, a RB that apparently is going to take the NFL by storm
See Sam LaPorta, his rookie season made him the #1 TE in FF, Bowers will easily come in under his stats from a year ago

I'll disagree here. The Raiders are not comparable to last year's Lions offensively. LaPorta got lost simply because of too many mouths to feed. That's not really the case in LV. Bowers also has an upgraded QB from last year, and Jeanty will only help keep pressure off.
153 targets last season
Pete Carroll is not going to throw to the TE 153 times this year
I combine that thought/opinion with this
The Raiders most rushing attempts last year was Mattison with 132 for a whopping 420 yards
Things are about to change in Las Vegas, I will take the under on Bowers this year
Pete Carroll isn't running the offense, though, and he never had Brock Bowers.

Chip Kelly LOVES Y-Cross and throwing to TEs. He will have them running the hell out of the ball and feeding Bowers. I've actually bumped Jeanty and Bowers (and, to a lesser extent, Geno Smith) up over what most analysts have these guys pegged for with Chip calling the plays.
This. Bowers I'm bumping everywhere. Also positive regression inside the 10 seems a lock. Was terribly underutilized down there last year.
 
Usually find 6 is mostly in inexperienced leagues.
Yes, like (checks notes) the NFFC Rotoworld Online Championship & live national championship leagues.
The Industry Leader of High-Stakes Fantasy Sports Contests

But please do go on about inexperienced leagues. I’m fascinated by your claim.
Guess just the ones you're in.
@Dez (& some of the other top ranked guys) will be very sad to learn that he’s an inexperienced player who only plays in inexperienced leagues.
 
Achane- Injury, Dolphins looming implosion. The CMC/KD/Haliburten/etc injuries have me too worried that someone with a calf injury is going to come back too soon and potentially blow their Achilles. I don't want to lose my season if that happens to a guy I drafted in the early 2nd.

Barkley- TINY Fade here... but still don't love taking him in the top 3. Eagles will pass more, lean on him a bit less, and try to keep him fresh and healthy. The breakout runs are always a threat and can single-handedly win you weeks, but the volume is basically a lock to go down.

Hill- On everyone's list and dropping down draft boards. He actually could be pretty great value though with how far he is currently sliding below his ADP of just a couple weeks ago.

Hampton- Maybe the player I'm avoiding most in the top 50. Love him in dynasty, but this year scares me. Losing Slater is really going to limit this offense.

JSN- Think Kupp steals a lot of slot work from him and seems to have a good connection with Darnold. Talent is there but situation isn't as good as last year.
 
Tyreek- Feels like the slide has begun, and conversely, I LOVE Waddle at his ADP.
James Cook-Had 16 TDs last year, probably a career best, and doesn't catch the ball enough
Breece Hall-They cannot make it any clearer he's in a committee. So now I'm drafting a committee back, from the Jets, with the TD vulture QB. Wheeeee
Jonathan Taylor-Not enough catches, and I don't like anything going on at QB over there.
Joe Burrow- I want an injury-prone discount, and I am not getting one
 
I'm kindof surprised to see so much Achane up in here. I think he is in line for another MONSTER year. The Dolphins "imploded" last year when Tua went down and Achane was still very much an elite fantasy RB. He's pretty bust proof given his extremely high-end receiving ability.

The injury is a tough bit of news to hear this week but I hope it isn't anything major. That is definitely something to monitor.
Achane appears to be a player you either love as an owner or want no part of.
That's very fair to say. I have had him for 1.5 seasons now and have loved every second of it. I am playing with house money at this point getting him for cheap years ago and having him as a late keeper. I can absolutely understand those weary of taking him at his ADP however.

I think he has one of the highest ceilings in football but no doubt LBI are scary and now there are rumblings about the Dolphins being interested in Brian Robinson. That would hurt Achane to a certain extent too.

I am still a big believer in him.
 
Tyreek- Feels like the slide has begun, and conversely, I LOVE Waddle at his ADP.
James Cook-Had 16 TDs last year, probably a career best, and doesn't catch the ball enough
Breece Hall-They cannot make it any clearer he's in a committee. So now I'm drafting a committee back, from the Jets, with the TD vulture QB. Wheeeee
Jonathan Taylor-Not enough catches, and I don't like anything going on at QB over there.
Joe Burrow- I want an injury-prone discount, and I am not getting one
Agree with all of these.
But there will be time where Hill becomes a value if he continues to slide in drafts.
No way Cook replicates his TDs.
Hall looks to have limited upside given the situation.....at best he is an average RB2 and could be worse than that.....you are drafting Hall at his ceiling.
I am not worried about an injury to Burrow, I just think Burrow is going too high in drafts and I can create a better team by waiting at QB.
Taylor will also have a TD vulture QB in Daniel Jones.
 
I think he has one of the highest ceilings in football but no doubt LBI are scary and now there are rumblings about the Dolphins being interested in Brian Robinson. That would hurt Achane to a certain extent too.

I am still a big believer in him.
I’m on the “avoid at ADP” side of this, but playing devil’s advocate for a moment, I don’t think BRob would impact Achane’s value much. He’s one of those “does more with less” dudes, and you’re paying for the receptions. It might be better for Achane to lose some between the tackles rushes.

I’m out at cost due to fears of injury (he’s just a little guy) and moreover injury to Tua derailing that entire offense. I’m rooting for a Zach Wilson redemption arc as much as the next guy, but I believe that would be a severe downgrade to the offense Miami wants to run.
 
Drake London 158 targets, 1,271 and jumped from 2 TD in '23 to 9 last year
I'll take the under across the board

Brock Bowers- new Sheriff in town and more mouths to feed, a RB that apparently is going to take the NFL by storm
See Sam LaPorta, his rookie season made him the #1 TE in FF, Bowers will easily come in under his stats from a year ago

Ladd McConkey- great rookie season, they just brought Keenan Allen back into the fold, they have a rookie WR they drafted high, and they lost Slater at LT for the season
Might be easier for them to just pound the football inside which is what Harbaugh loves.

JSN- Price tag is astronomical for a team that is going to run the football enough times to keep both of their RBs happy
I'll take the under on him duplicating 100 catches

Jayden Daniels-3rd QB off the board? Seriously? I'll pass and watch him regress with the Washington team this year as the temperature rises just a bit for Dan Quinn in Year 2
They had a terrible off season IMHO, not understanding how short these windows can be

Excellent thread Trip, thank you!
Bold takes. I disagree with McConkey. After watching him in preseason I just believe he’s impossible to guard. Creates separation and just gets open. Always.
 
Bold takes. I disagree with McConkey. After watching him in preseason I just believe he’s impossible to guard. Creates separation and just gets open. Always.
Yeah, I was out on him compared to a couple guys near him in a dynasty draft recently, but I’ve warmed up to him in redraft. PPR monster. I think he lacks the ceiling of the true alpha WRs, but his floor might be the highest of any WR in the NFL.
 
I'm kindof surprised to see so much Achane up in here. I think he is in line for another MONSTER year. The Dolphins "imploded" last year when Tua went down and Achane was still very much an elite fantasy RB. He's pretty bust proof given his extremely high-end receiving ability.

The injury is a tough bit of news to hear this week but I hope it isn't anything major. That is definitely something to monitor.
I completely agree with this. With Tua only playing 11 games last season—Achane finished as the RB5 in ppr leagues in fantasy. Even if Tua were to get hurt this season—I would argue that Zach Wilson is better than any backup that the dolphins had last season—and Achane would still be a big part of the mix. I trust his role regardless of Tua more than I do the Dolphins Wr’s. Achane got injured 3 weeks before the season starts—even if he misses a couple of games—I think he has a legitimate shot to finish as one of the top rbs in fantasy this season (especially in ppr).

I would argue the same thing about Breece Hall. I did not drink the kool-aid at all last year. I wasn’t going to spend a top 6 pick on him. However—with the fantasy negativity circulating around him—him going in the late 3rd/4th rounds (a 3-4 round discount from last season)—I like him there. The Jets were a complete mess last year with their diva qb not attending mini-camp—and then getting hurt very early in the season. You couple that with a completely inept coaching staff that effectively sabotaged the team— and Breece still finished the year as RB16/17 in ppr formats (based on if you do 0.5ppr or 1ppr)—which is effectively a top tier RB2. He did that on 13 rushing attempts a game and 4.75 targets per game—under those dumpster fire circumstances. Now you have a better and younger qb, and a coach (Glenn) that came from a team where both Gibbs and Montgomery thrived—and I really like 4th rounds Breece. I hope the negative sentiment continues around guys like Achane or Breece—-as these are two players that I’d love to grab at a bigger discount.
The Rodgers injury was 2023.
Good catch, you are right and I was crossing seasons. With that said—I don’t think that changes my thesis at all. They still had a horrible coaching staff—and even with Rodgers playing—they had horrid play at the QB position. He had a qbr of 48–25th best in the league. I’d still take 2025 fields over 2024 rodgers, I would take the current coaching staff over the 2024 coaching staff, and I think the departure of Devante adams actually helps open up more opportunity for both Hall and Allen.
 
1.07 - CMC - more for you if you’re into that sort of thing. League winning upside. Doorstop floor. I’m out.
That's just becasue you don't want your FF rooting tied to your NFL rooting so that both die if bad things happen. You are diversifying your happiness/sadness
I actually do kinda try to avoid drafting 49ers.

I have a Jennings share in one league.
I have a Purdy share in another.

That’s about it.
 
Kyren - no passing game upside. He has volume but the amount of volume he had last year will be hard to repeat. His rushing efficiency declined a lot last year.

Burrow - Give me Jalen and his rushing upside around the same ADP.

Garrett Wilson - The Jets will probably be bad and if they arent it will be because they are successful at rushing the ball. Just hard to see the upside here.

DJ Moore - Career low YPRR last year. New coaching staff went out and drafted 2 young pass catchers. His ADP is too high for this ambiguity.

Sutton - In 7 seasons, this guy has not finished higher than WR24 in PPG. He's ranked higher or equally with guys like Jameson Williams, Tet, Devonta Smith who have a lot more upside. This is the kind of boring safe mid-round pick that gets you 7th place in your league.
Going to give you a counterpoint on Moore even though I agree with this because of the opportunity cost where you have to pick; Ben Johnson's slot WR gets a ton of volume each year outside of Amendola:

2014: Jarvis Landry - 84 catches (14th)
2015: Jarvis Landry - 110 catches (4th)
2016: Jarvis Landry - 94 catches (7th)
2017: Jarvis Landry - 112 catches (1st)
2018: Danny Amendola - 59 catches (36th
2019: Danny Amendola - 62 catches (32nd)
2020: Danny Amendola [age 35] - 46 catches (63rd)
2021: Amon-Ra St. Brown - 90 catches (13th)
2022: Amon-Ra St. Brown - 106 catches (5th)
2023: Amon-Ra St. Brown - 119 catches (2nd)
2024: Amon-Ra St. Brown - 115 catches (2nd)


As for Sutton:

The Broncos opened up the offense following their Week 7 bye. From that point on, Courtland Sutton averaged 18.1 FPG and a 13.5% 1D/RR on 17.2 XFP/G. Those marks would have ranked 8th-best, 8th-best, and 7th-best at the position."

 
Tyreek- Feels like the slide has begun, and conversely, I LOVE Waddle at his ADP.
James Cook-Had 16 TDs last year, probably a career best, and doesn't catch the ball enough
Breece Hall-They cannot make it any clearer he's in a committee. So now I'm drafting a committee back, from the Jets, with the TD vulture QB. Wheeeee
Jonathan Taylor-Not enough catches, and I don't like anything going on at QB over there.
Joe Burrow- I want an injury-prone discount, and I am not getting one
I’m definitely in on Cook at the right price, even with TD regression.
 
Brock Bowers- new Sheriff in town and more mouths to feed, a RB that apparently is going to take the NFL by storm
See Sam LaPorta, his rookie season made him the #1 TE in FF, Bowers will easily come in under his stats from a year ago

I'll disagree here. The Raiders are not comparable to last year's Lions offensively. LaPorta got lost simply because of too many mouths to feed. That's not really the case in LV. Bowers also has an upgraded QB from last year, and Jeanty will only help keep pressure off.
153 targets last season
Pete Carroll is not going to throw to the TE 153 times this year
I combine that thought/opinion with this
The Raiders most rushing attempts last year was Mattison with 132 for a whopping 420 yards
Things are about to change in Las Vegas, I will take the under on Bowers this year
Pete Carroll isn't running the offense, though, and he never had Brock Bowers.

Chip Kelly LOVES Y-Cross and throwing to TEs. He will have them running the hell out of the ball and feeding Bowers. I've actually bumped Jeanty and Bowers (and, to a lesser extent, Geno Smith) up over what most analysts have these guys pegged for with Chip calling the plays.
Greetings GDog, thanks for jumping in
-I think Jimmy Graham is a decent TE, he just joined the Board at UM his alma mater and mine
You might like this tidbit of research/info
Seattle signs him and look what Carroll does to one of the best Tight Ends in the NFL at the time, 3 Pro Bowls while he was a Saint

149-135-142-125 and racks 46 TDs over that 4-yr span
and then...he does alright in Seattle but his targets drop by 30-40%? Unreal
Keep an open mind is all I'm saying, there is some history here, we at the Ministry try not to pull things out of our sphincter despite what some detractors like to spout
I honestly didn't know Chip Kelly was the OC in Vegas, thank you for that although I'm not the biggest Kelly fan but you make a good point.
I still don't feel that Bowers will cross 1,000 yds again this season, maybe he will be a rare exception.
 
Drake London 158 targets, 1,271 and jumped from 2 TD in '23 to 9 last year
I'll take the under across the board

Brock Bowers- new Sheriff in town and more mouths to feed, a RB that apparently is going to take the NFL by storm
See Sam LaPorta, his rookie season made him the #1 TE in FF, Bowers will easily come in under his stats from a year ago

Ladd McConkey- great rookie season, they just brought Keenan Allen back into the fold, they have a rookie WR they drafted high, and they lost Slater at LT for the season
Might be easier for them to just pound the football inside which is what Harbaugh loves.

JSN- Price tag is astronomical for a team that is going to run the football enough times to keep both of their RBs happy
I'll take the under on him duplicating 100 catches

Jayden Daniels-3rd QB off the board? Seriously? I'll pass and watch him regress with the Washington team this year as the temperature rises just a bit for Dan Quinn in Year 2
They had a terrible off season IMHO, not understanding how short these windows can be

Excellent thread Trip, thank you!
Bold takes. I disagree with McConkey. After watching him in preseason I just believe he’s impossible to guard. Creates separation and just gets open. Always.
Almost Cooper Kupp like in that sense, does seem to be his calling card
So Left Tackles set the outer pocket and allow QBs to drop back and get the ball down field while avoiding those speedy outside rushers
Bolts lost their LT already, sure they roll Alt over but that still just makes them vulnerable at the other Tackle spot, it's gonna catch up with them at some point

I still would bet the under vs his outstanding rookie season
 
  • Achane- he's got a soft tissue injury, Tua is a hit away from missing a month(s?), Miami looks like a sinking ship.
  • Tyreek- all the stuff I said about Tua and Miami plus he is clearly unhappy there and we've seen the play decline, it's over for him
  • Cook- he doesn't get high volume, he's not the prolific reciver he was billed as and he rushed for a total of 4 TDs in his first two seasons, his 16 last year given his usage seems impossible to expect again
  • Breece- sure seems like they want a RBBC, I don't expect a fast paced high scoring offense and with Fields we won't get the reception numbers
  • Baker- Godwin can't even jog yet, McMillan is out for at least half the season, new OC. It's much more likely he slips back into the muddy QB 12-18 range than repeat his 45 TD season
I’m not going to say you’re wrong about Baker but I will say that he threw 26 TDs to players that weren’t Evans and Godwin.
 
I just don't think this team is good and won't be playing for much down the stretch
Not relevant for FF purposes. From weeks 14 thru 18, 4 of the top 6 WR's came from non-playoff teams (including Nabers himself).
This is fair. Trust me, I LOVE Nabers. But I might pick a player I feel is more likely to be playing for something at the end of the year like ARSB, Puka or Collins.
Maybe you have more data to support this, but it did not seem like a big factor in Nabers last four games last year.
 
  • Achane- he's got a soft tissue injury, Tua is a hit away from missing a month(s?), Miami looks like a sinking ship.
  • Tyreek- all the stuff I said about Tua and Miami plus he is clearly unhappy there and we've seen the play decline, it's over for him
  • Cook- he doesn't get high volume, he's not the prolific reciver he was billed as and he rushed for a total of 4 TDs in his first two seasons, his 16 last year given his usage seems impossible to expect again
  • Breece- sure seems like they want a RBBC, I don't expect a fast paced high scoring offense and with Fields we won't get the reception numbers
  • Baker- Godwin can't even jog yet, McMillan is out for at least half the season, new OC. It's much more likely he slips back into the muddy QB 12-18 range than repeat his 45 TD season
I’m not going to say you’re wrong about Baker but I will say that he threw 26 TDs to players that weren’t Evans and Godwin.
That is very fair. Godwin didn't play much last year, Evans missed some time. Last year just seems like such a 95th percentile outcome for him. Though it does seem like his draft price has been more affordable than I initially thought. I still think he's part of the group of QBs who you should be waiting on, not going after if that makes sense.
 
Brock Bowers- new Sheriff in town and more mouths to feed, a RB that apparently is going to take the NFL by storm
See Sam LaPorta, his rookie season made him the #1 TE in FF, Bowers will easily come in under his stats from a year ago

I'll disagree here. The Raiders are not comparable to last year's Lions offensively. LaPorta got lost simply because of too many mouths to feed. That's not really the case in LV. Bowers also has an upgraded QB from last year, and Jeanty will only help keep pressure off.
Are we freaking out over the weird Mayer usage from Chip Kelly?

In the two preseason games, the Raiders have been in 3-WR sets (1 tight end on the field) on 17-of-19 Geno Smith dropbacks. The only two that weren't were the 3-TE-set runs at the 1-yard line. That by itself is a surprise, as OC Chip Kelly typically runs a balanced offense and that's a pass-based personnel grouping. Of course, Kelly does some wild things, and maybe he will be balanced but wants to keep defenses in light boxes with lighter defensive personnel. So why do we care? Well, Bowers has played on 6-of-17 3-WR set plays compared to Michael Mayer's 11. Mayer is unquestionably a better blocker and isn't a slouch himself for what it's worth. This would be the worst case scenario for his usage, but it's not going to be this bad. Teams don't use 11-personnel this much throughout the year, and it's hard to believe Bowers will be out there for a third of the snaps in this grouping when the bullets are flying. That said, Kelly is the old-school principled coach to do something as controversial as not playing the all-time rookie TE receiving leader as many snaps as possible. For reference, Kelly's Buckeyes were in 3-WR sets on 69% of plays and 12-personnel on 20% last year.

 
Brock Bowers- new Sheriff in town and more mouths to feed, a RB that apparently is going to take the NFL by storm
See Sam LaPorta, his rookie season made him the #1 TE in FF, Bowers will easily come in under his stats from a year ago

I'll disagree here. The Raiders are not comparable to last year's Lions offensively. LaPorta got lost simply because of too many mouths to feed. That's not really the case in LV. Bowers also has an upgraded QB from last year, and Jeanty will only help keep pressure off.
Are we freaking out over the weird Mayer usage from Chip Kelly?

In the two preseason games, the Raiders have been in 3-WR sets (1 tight end on the field) on 17-of-19 Geno Smith dropbacks. The only two that weren't were the 3-TE-set runs at the 1-yard line. That by itself is a surprise, as OC Chip Kelly typically runs a balanced offense and that's a pass-based personnel grouping. Of course, Kelly does some wild things, and maybe he will be balanced but wants to keep defenses in light boxes with lighter defensive personnel. So why do we care? Well, Bowers has played on 6-of-17 3-WR set plays compared to Michael Mayer's 11. Mayer is unquestionably a better blocker and isn't a slouch himself for what it's worth. This would be the worst case scenario for his usage, but it's not going to be this bad. Teams don't use 11-personnel this much throughout the year, and it's hard to believe Bowers will be out there for a third of the snaps in this grouping when the bullets are flying. That said, Kelly is the old-school principled coach to do something as controversial as not playing the all-time rookie TE receiving leader as many snaps as possible. For reference, Kelly's Buckeyes were in 3-WR sets on 69% of plays and 12-personnel on 20% last year.

:goodposting:
Doesn't mean it happens that way but I like the time and research and facts you injected into this thread
 
Garrett Wilson-I think Josh Norris had said he was top 5 in targets last year and still finished WR20ish and now he's got Justin Fields at QB(who's only averaging about 4 air yards through preseason and practices); just at that price, I don't like him

Breece Hall-I just do not like the usage from what I saw in the preseason, they got Allen near the GL getting those touches and he's going to need a lot of catches to pay off his ADP. Not to mention Albert Breer thinks Braelon Allen will have a monster year and it's just not a good offense.

Marvin Harrison Jr-the same offensive cast is back with the same QB and the same play caller yet we expect a leap. Fun fact: Mcbride had more catches last year than MHJr had total targets.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba-a downgrade at QB this year, yet to post a 2.0 yards-per-route-run season, and they just fired their last OC because he passed too much which has me thinking they are going to be more run heavy this year. His ADot is low to intermediate, which limits explosive plays and what if Seattle turns to Milroe the second half of the season?

Johnathan Taylor-almost 40 percent of his scoring came in 3 games last year. I will say having Daniel Jones out there instead of Richardson helps but Taylor also gets hurt a lot, he's too volatile, Daniel Jones and Richardson both like to vulture, and the Colts do not use Taylor in the passing game that often. There's better choices around him that I prefer.
 
Garrett Wilson-I think Josh Norris had said he was top 5 in targets last year and still finished WR20ish and now he's got Justin Fields at QB(who's only averaging about 4 air yards through preseason and practices); just at that price, I don't like him

Breece Hall-I just do not like the usage from what I saw in the preseason, they got Allen near the GL getting those touches and he's going to need a lot of catches to pay off his ADP. Not to mention Albert Breer thinks Braelon Allen will have a monster year and it's just not a good offense.

Marvin Harrison Jr-the same offensive cast is back with the same QB and the same play caller yet we expect a leap. Fun fact: Mcbride had more catches last year than MHJr had total targets.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba-a downgrade at QB this year, yet to post a 2.0 yards-per-route-run season, and they just fired their last OC because he passed too much which has me thinking they are going to be more run heavy this year. His ADot is low to intermediate, which limits explosive plays and what if Seattle turns to Milroe the second half of the season?

Johnathan Taylor-almost 40 percent of his scoring came in 3 games last year. I will say having Daniel Jones out there instead of Richardson helps but Taylor also gets hurt a lot, he's too volatile, Daniel Jones and Richardson both like to vulture, and the Colts do not use Taylor in the passing game that often. There's better choices around him that I prefer.
1st three on list are on my dynasty team, yay me. Garrett Wilson's career wasting away in the garbage dump jets franchise along with Hall.
 
Garrett Wilson-I think Josh Norris had said he was top 5 in targets last year and still finished WR20ish and now he's got Justin Fields at QB(who's only averaging about 4 air yards through preseason and practices); just at that price, I don't like him

Breece Hall-I just do not like the usage from what I saw in the preseason, they got Allen near the GL getting those touches and he's going to need a lot of catches to pay off his ADP. Not to mention Albert Breer thinks Braelon Allen will have a monster year and it's just not a good offense.

Marvin Harrison Jr-the same offensive cast is back with the same QB and the same play caller yet we expect a leap. Fun fact: Mcbride had more catches last year than MHJr had total targets.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba-a downgrade at QB this year, yet to post a 2.0 yards-per-route-run season, and they just fired their last OC because he passed too much which has me thinking they are going to be more run heavy this year. His ADot is low to intermediate, which limits explosive plays and what if Seattle turns to Milroe the second half of the season?

Johnathan Taylor-almost 40 percent of his scoring came in 3 games last year. I will say having Daniel Jones out there instead of Richardson helps but Taylor also gets hurt a lot, he's too volatile, Daniel Jones and Richardson both like to vulture, and the Colts do not use Taylor in the passing game that often. There's better choices around him that I prefer.
1st three on list are on my dynasty team, yay me. Garrett Wilson's career wasting away in the garbage dump jets franchise along with Hall.
I got Wilson and Taylor on a team too so don't worry. Hurts my soul to type that out; was going to put in a bonus one but everyone has been crapping on Kyren anyway
 
Zero mentions of Derrick Henry, ADP right around the end of the first round. A guy that big and fast who’s gotten workhorse carries tends to drop off precipitously when it happens. Love his style and speed and everything about his game but I’d fade him at 1.12.

Agreed with the Stephon Diggs concerns. As for George Pickens, I’ve been saying since he was drafted that he could become a top WR in the league. The Steelers didn’t know how to use him or how to keep him from being stupid. At the very least the Cowboys will feed him. Don’t sleep on George.
 
Brock Bowers- new Sheriff in town and more mouths to feed, a RB that apparently is going to take the NFL by storm
See Sam LaPorta, his rookie season made him the #1 TE in FF, Bowers will easily come in under his stats from a year ago

I'll disagree here. The Raiders are not comparable to last year's Lions offensively. LaPorta got lost simply because of too many mouths to feed. That's not really the case in LV. Bowers also has an upgraded QB from last year, and Jeanty will only help keep pressure off.
153 targets last season
Pete Carroll is not going to throw to the TE 153 times this year
I combine that thought/opinion with this
The Raiders most rushing attempts last year was Mattison with 132 for a whopping 420 yards
Things are about to change in Las Vegas, I will take the under on Bowers this year
Pete Carroll isn't running the offense, though, and he never had Brock Bowers.

Chip Kelly LOVES Y-Cross and throwing to TEs. He will have them running the hell out of the ball and feeding Bowers. I've actually bumped Jeanty and Bowers (and, to a lesser extent, Geno Smith) up over what most analysts have these guys pegged for with Chip calling the plays.
Greetings GDog, thanks for jumping in
-I think Jimmy Graham is a decent TE, he just joined the Board at UM his alma mater and mine
You might like this tidbit of research/info
Seattle signs him and look what Carroll does to one of the best Tight Ends in the NFL at the time, 3 Pro Bowls while he was a Saint

149-135-142-125 and racks 46 TDs over that 4-yr span
and then...he does alright in Seattle but his targets drop by 30-40%? Unreal
Keep an open mind is all I'm saying, there is some history here, we at the Ministry try not to pull things out of our sphincter despite what some detractors like to spout
I honestly didn't know Chip Kelly was the OC in Vegas, thank you for that although I'm not the biggest Kelly fan but you make a good point.
I still don't feel that Bowers will cross 1,000 yds again this season, maybe he will be a rare exception.

Chip Kelly will be calling the plays. I wouldn't worry too much about Carroll's TE history.

The Occams Razor view is that Bowers is a generational TE talent in an offense that got much better this year, and it would be the bonehead coach move of the century for Carroll to not utilize him as much as he can.
 
Brock Bowers- new Sheriff in town and more mouths to feed, a RB that apparently is going to take the NFL by storm
See Sam LaPorta, his rookie season made him the #1 TE in FF, Bowers will easily come in under his stats from a year ago

I'll disagree here. The Raiders are not comparable to last year's Lions offensively. LaPorta got lost simply because of too many mouths to feed. That's not really the case in LV. Bowers also has an upgraded QB from last year, and Jeanty will only help keep pressure off.
153 targets last season
Pete Carroll is not going to throw to the TE 153 times this year
I combine that thought/opinion with this
The Raiders most rushing attempts last year was Mattison with 132 for a whopping 420 yards
Things are about to change in Las Vegas, I will take the under on Bowers this year
Pete Carroll isn't running the offense, though, and he never had Brock Bowers.

Chip Kelly LOVES Y-Cross and throwing to TEs. He will have them running the hell out of the ball and feeding Bowers. I've actually bumped Jeanty and Bowers (and, to a lesser extent, Geno Smith) up over what most analysts have these guys pegged for with Chip calling the plays.
Greetings GDog, thanks for jumping in
-I think Jimmy Graham is a decent TE, he just joined the Board at UM his alma mater and mine
You might like this tidbit of research/info
Seattle signs him and look what Carroll does to one of the best Tight Ends in the NFL at the time, 3 Pro Bowls while he was a Saint

149-135-142-125 and racks 46 TDs over that 4-yr span
and then...he does alright in Seattle but his targets drop by 30-40%? Unreal
Keep an open mind is all I'm saying, there is some history here, we at the Ministry try not to pull things out of our sphincter despite what some detractors like to spout
I honestly didn't know Chip Kelly was the OC in Vegas, thank you for that although I'm not the biggest Kelly fan but you make a good point.
I still don't feel that Bowers will cross 1,000 yds again this season, maybe he will be a rare exception.

Chip Kelly will be calling the plays. I wouldn't worry too much about Carroll's TE history.

The Occams Razor view is that Bowers is a generational TE talent in an offense that got much better this year, and it would be the bonehead coach move of the century for Carroll to not utilize him as much as he can.
Agreed. He is easily the most talented receiver on the team, he should lead them in targets by a good margin.

That being said, MoP is right, it will certainly be a more diversified offense. Maybe he'll be "more efficient", which is what people like to say in these situations, and I imagine he will catch more than five TDs. But, while Bowers is likely to lead the Raiders in targets he still may not get close to the 153 he saw last year.

Bowers should still be one of the top two TEs drafted, apologies to Kittle but, IMO McBride seems a lot more likely to replicate his target share than Bowers.

ETA: looking at it, I could see taking Kittle over Bowers too. From Purdy's first start Kittle has been a consistent down field target with and he finds the end zone. The knock is he should probably be expected to miss two games.
 
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Brock Bowers- new Sheriff in town and more mouths to feed, a RB that apparently is going to take the NFL by storm
See Sam LaPorta, his rookie season made him the #1 TE in FF, Bowers will easily come in under his stats from a year ago

I'll disagree here. The Raiders are not comparable to last year's Lions offensively. LaPorta got lost simply because of too many mouths to feed. That's not really the case in LV. Bowers also has an upgraded QB from last year, and Jeanty will only help keep pressure off.
153 targets last season
Pete Carroll is not going to throw to the TE 153 times this year
I combine that thought/opinion with this
The Raiders most rushing attempts last year was Mattison with 132 for a whopping 420 yards
Things are about to change in Las Vegas, I will take the under on Bowers this year
Pete Carroll isn't running the offense, though, and he never had Brock Bowers.

Chip Kelly LOVES Y-Cross and throwing to TEs. He will have them running the hell out of the ball and feeding Bowers. I've actually bumped Jeanty and Bowers (and, to a lesser extent, Geno Smith) up over what most analysts have these guys pegged for with Chip calling the plays.
Greetings GDog, thanks for jumping in
-I think Jimmy Graham is a decent TE, he just joined the Board at UM his alma mater and mine
You might like this tidbit of research/info
Seattle signs him and look what Carroll does to one of the best Tight Ends in the NFL at the time, 3 Pro Bowls while he was a Saint

149-135-142-125 and racks 46 TDs over that 4-yr span
and then...he does alright in Seattle but his targets drop by 30-40%? Unreal
Keep an open mind is all I'm saying, there is some history here, we at the Ministry try not to pull things out of our sphincter despite what some detractors like to spout
I honestly didn't know Chip Kelly was the OC in Vegas, thank you for that although I'm not the biggest Kelly fan but you make a good point.
I still don't feel that Bowers will cross 1,000 yds again this season, maybe he will be a rare exception.

Chip Kelly will be calling the plays. I wouldn't worry too much about Carroll's TE history.

The Occams Razor view is that Bowers is a generational TE talent in an offense that got much better this year, and it would be the bonehead coach move of the century for Carroll to not utilize him as much as he can.
Agreed. He is easily the most talented receiver on the team, he should lead them in targets by a good margin.

That being said, MoP is right, it will certainly be a more diversified offense. Maybe he'll be "more efficient", which is what people like to say in these situations, and I imagine he will catch more than five TDs. But, while Bowers is likely to lead the Raiders in targets he still may not get close to the 153 he saw last year.

Bowers should still be one of the top two TEs drafted, apologies to Kittle but, IMO McBride seems a lot more likely to replicate his target share than Bowers.

I think he can at least come close. The offense is better. That means more sustained drives, more volume, more plays on offense.

Also here are some other stats.

Bowers led all TEs last year with 28 uncatchable targets.

He had an extremely high rate of deep targets last year. Who is PFFs highest rated deep passer over the last 3 years? Thats right, Geno Smith.

So maybe his targets go down but his efficiency goes up?

He also had one red zone TD on 14 red zone targets. So there's an argument to be made that he may actually be due for positive regression in some categories.
 
Brock Bowers- new Sheriff in town and more mouths to feed, a RB that apparently is going to take the NFL by storm
See Sam LaPorta, his rookie season made him the #1 TE in FF, Bowers will easily come in under his stats from a year ago

I'll disagree here. The Raiders are not comparable to last year's Lions offensively. LaPorta got lost simply because of too many mouths to feed. That's not really the case in LV. Bowers also has an upgraded QB from last year, and Jeanty will only help keep pressure off.
153 targets last season
Pete Carroll is not going to throw to the TE 153 times this year
I combine that thought/opinion with this
The Raiders most rushing attempts last year was Mattison with 132 for a whopping 420 yards
Things are about to change in Las Vegas, I will take the under on Bowers this year
Pete Carroll isn't running the offense, though, and he never had Brock Bowers.

Chip Kelly LOVES Y-Cross and throwing to TEs. He will have them running the hell out of the ball and feeding Bowers. I've actually bumped Jeanty and Bowers (and, to a lesser extent, Geno Smith) up over what most analysts have these guys pegged for with Chip calling the plays.
Greetings GDog, thanks for jumping in
-I think Jimmy Graham is a decent TE, he just joined the Board at UM his alma mater and mine
You might like this tidbit of research/info
Seattle signs him and look what Carroll does to one of the best Tight Ends in the NFL at the time, 3 Pro Bowls while he was a Saint

149-135-142-125 and racks 46 TDs over that 4-yr span
and then...he does alright in Seattle but his targets drop by 30-40%? Unreal
Keep an open mind is all I'm saying, there is some history here, we at the Ministry try not to pull things out of our sphincter despite what some detractors like to spout
I honestly didn't know Chip Kelly was the OC in Vegas, thank you for that although I'm not the biggest Kelly fan but you make a good point.
I still don't feel that Bowers will cross 1,000 yds again this season, maybe he will be a rare exception.

Chip Kelly will be calling the plays. I wouldn't worry too much about Carroll's TE history.

The Occams Razor view is that Bowers is a generational TE talent in an offense that got much better this year, and it would be the bonehead coach move of the century for Carroll to not utilize him as much as he can.
Agreed. He is easily the most talented receiver on the team, he should lead them in targets by a good margin.

That being said, MoP is right, it will certainly be a more diversified offense. Maybe he'll be "more efficient", which is what people like to say in these situations, and I imagine he will catch more than five TDs. But, while Bowers is likely to lead the Raiders in targets he still may not get close to the 153 he saw last year.

Bowers should still be one of the top two TEs drafted, apologies to Kittle but, IMO McBride seems a lot more likely to replicate his target share than Bowers.

I think he can at least come close. The offense is better. That means more sustained drives, more volume, more plays on offense.

Also here are some other stats.

Bowers led all TEs last year with 28 uncatchable targets.

He had an extremely high rate of deep targets last year. Who is PFFs highest rated deep passer over the last 3 years? Thats right, Geno Smith.

So maybe his targets go down but his efficiency goes up?

He also had one red zone TD on 14 red zone targets. So there's an argument to be made that he may actually be due for positive regression in some categories.
I appreciate the information, sincerely I do.

I think everything that happened last year, beyond his obvious athletic talent should probably go out the window. It was a terrible offense, terrible scheme, terrible coordinator, terrible QBs which, ultimately amounted to the QB dropping back and forcing it to Bowers. Which tracks with the high uncatchable target rate.

I 100% view him as the Raiders defacto WR1 but the Raiders were 30th or worse in rush attempts and yards/attempt. They were fourth in pass attempts! (terrible coaching/terrible scheme). The gains in number of plays that we all expect to see will, almost certainly be overwhelmingly seen in the run game.

Now, the question is how will the passing game shake out? Will it be more than a two man funnel to Jakobi and Brock? IDK. I am not a big Tre Tucker believer and the other options are two rookies, Mayer and Jeanty.

It's a big question mark but, personally I think Geno will be significantly better at distributing the ball. I think Jeanty will be a legitimate passing game outlet, as well as see designed pass plays. And I think Chip Kelly will scheme the other guys open enough to eat into Jakobi and Brock's target share.

:2cents:
 
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This might be a hot take, but I’ve faded Lamb and Nieghbors. Passed on them in round one every time. I’m sure they’ll get lots of targets and receptions but I don’t spend a first round pick on players that I think won’t have double digit touchdowns. And both of those teams could finish with losing records maybe which won’t be great for their chances of scoring double digit touchdowns.
 
This might be a hot take, but I’ve faded Lamb and Nieghbors. Passed on them in round one every time. I’m sure they’ll get lots of targets and receptions but I don’t spend a first round pick on players that I think won’t have double digit touchdowns. And both of those teams could finish with losing records maybe which won’t be great for their chances of scoring double digit touchdowns.
lamb is a near lock for 10 TD IMO.

Definitely a hot take. I could see fading Nabers due to the team around him, but Lamb is poised for a monster season.
 
This might be a hot take, but I’ve faded Lamb and Nieghbors. Passed on them in round one every time. I’m sure they’ll get lots of targets and receptions but I don’t spend a first round pick on players that I think won’t have double digit touchdowns. And both of those teams could finish with losing records maybe which won’t be great for their chances of scoring double digit touchdowns.
lamb is a near lock for 10 TD IMO.

Definitely a hot take. I could see fading Nabers due to the team around him, but Lamb is poised for a monster season.
Maybe. But no way I pass on Gibbs or even Barkley if he’s there for a team looking like it could implode. If Lamb is there end of round one then I’d give him a long hard look. But not at 5 or 6. Just my opinion of course.
 
Maybe. But no way I pass on Gibbs or even Barkley if he’s there for a team looking like it could implode
I had 1.03 in a ROC draft and took Gibbs over Lamb. That mostly had to do with the 3RR & drop-off in RB tiers, but I did strongly consider Lamb there.

If I’m at 1.04 or 1.05 I would take Lamb over everyone else.
 
This might be a hot take, but I’ve faded Lamb and Nieghbors. Passed on them in round one every time. I’m sure they’ll get lots of targets and receptions but I don’t spend a first round pick on players that I think won’t have double digit touchdowns. And both of those teams could finish with losing records maybe which won’t be great for their chances of scoring double digit touchdowns.
I think Lamb will challenge Chase as the top scorer in PPR this year. Wouldn't be surprised if he flirts with the receptions record. Being on a losing team is a good thing for WRs.
 

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