Concept Coop
Footballguy
*2012 Update Below, post #13**
I have been looking a combination of stats as a gage for future production, over the last couple days, and wanted to get some outside opinions.
Filtering players who posted 50% catch rate on a 40% deep rate with 15YPC rendered three groups of players: Elite playmakers, elite deep threats, and situational deep threats. That is the difference between Steve Smith (Car), DeSean Jackson and Malcolm Floyd, who all look to be equally productive per target: Smith received more attention, double teams, and was a bigger threat everywhere else on the field. DeSean can be the best player on his team and still be an elite deep threat. Floyd's production is heavily influenced by his situation.
When dealing with a young player, or a player whose role has yet to be expanded beyond a deep threat, you have to determine if the player can be a threat everywhere else on the field.
As a small exercise: Take the players that make the cut, and ask a couple questions:
-Is the player capable of being a team's best possession WR and deep threat?
-Does their production project to continue as the player becomes (if not already) a teams best WR?
If both questions are yes, we are looking at an elite WR (Britt/Rice/Green).
If only the 2nd question is yes, we are looking at a (fantasy) WR2. (The Jacksons)
A couple explanations:
Kenny Britt (2009/10): Britt had an amazing season in 2010, catching 60% of his balls, 40 % of which were deep. Looking at Britt, we should have been able to conclude that he is a threat everywhere on the field, as he runs great routes, has great hands, thus, can be a teams possession WR, and it's deep threat. He did match up with the opposing team's best CB often and did not have another WR on his roster more worthy of a double team. This exercise should have told us that Britt is poised to be an elite NFL and fantasy WR.
Malcolm Floyd (Every year): We should note that Floyd played with a very good NFL QB, played across a better, more double-team-worthy WR who is also an elite deep threat. Unlike Britt, Floyd is not a great route runner and is not likely to be a threat all over the field. We should conclude that Floyd is a situational deep threat, both in the NFL and as a FF asset.
Others that I would, at the time, put in the elite WR category:
-Sidney Rice (2009)
-Santonio Holmes (2007)
-Roy Williams (2006) <--I would have been very wrong.
-Roddy White (2006) <--Almost forgot he was considered primarily as a deep threat.
-Brandon Lloyd (10) <--Not young at the time, but he showed an great deal of change. He won't make this list if we take age into account.
-Dwyane Bowe (10)
Those I would have pegged as deep threats as a #1 target:
-Vincent Jackson (07)
-DeSean Jackson (08)
-Mike Wallace (2009/10) <--He showed he could be a teams do-all WR for a stretch, when need (think SB). But he returned to his old role with the emergence of Brown.
Others that I would have relegated to the situational deep threat category:
-Mario Manningham
-Nate Washington
-Lance Moore
-Robert Mecham
-Steve Breaston
A few that I would we as owner need to answer the above questions about, based on 2011:
-Eric Decker*
-AJ Green
-DHB
-Brandon LaFell
-Demarius Thomas *
-Torrey Smith
Green is obvious, but I would categorize them as such, based on potential:
Elite Category:
Green
Thomas*
Elite Deep Threat as a team's best WR:
DHB
Decker*
Smith
Situational Deep Threat:
LaFell
*Included due to the Tebow factor. Their Catch rates were below 50%, but close enough to assume 50%, should they ever get catchable targets.
2012 UPDATE:
Players meeting criteria (Thru w4):
AJ Green
Torrey Smith
R. Barden
Steve Smith (CAR)
DeSean Jackson
Nate Washington
Malcomn Floyd
Miles Austin
Golden Tate
Jon Baldwin** 14.8 YPC (Very close)
The list is full of very good WRs. Barden is one game, I am not putting anything into it, yet.
If this were to continue, the guys we would need to pay attention to, and potentially make a determination on:
Golden Tate
Jon Baldwin
I have been looking a combination of stats as a gage for future production, over the last couple days, and wanted to get some outside opinions.
Filtering players who posted 50% catch rate on a 40% deep rate with 15YPC rendered three groups of players: Elite playmakers, elite deep threats, and situational deep threats. That is the difference between Steve Smith (Car), DeSean Jackson and Malcolm Floyd, who all look to be equally productive per target: Smith received more attention, double teams, and was a bigger threat everywhere else on the field. DeSean can be the best player on his team and still be an elite deep threat. Floyd's production is heavily influenced by his situation.
When dealing with a young player, or a player whose role has yet to be expanded beyond a deep threat, you have to determine if the player can be a threat everywhere else on the field.
As a small exercise: Take the players that make the cut, and ask a couple questions:
-Is the player capable of being a team's best possession WR and deep threat?
-Does their production project to continue as the player becomes (if not already) a teams best WR?
If both questions are yes, we are looking at an elite WR (Britt/Rice/Green).
If only the 2nd question is yes, we are looking at a (fantasy) WR2. (The Jacksons)
A couple explanations:
Kenny Britt (2009/10): Britt had an amazing season in 2010, catching 60% of his balls, 40 % of which were deep. Looking at Britt, we should have been able to conclude that he is a threat everywhere on the field, as he runs great routes, has great hands, thus, can be a teams possession WR, and it's deep threat. He did match up with the opposing team's best CB often and did not have another WR on his roster more worthy of a double team. This exercise should have told us that Britt is poised to be an elite NFL and fantasy WR.
Malcolm Floyd (Every year): We should note that Floyd played with a very good NFL QB, played across a better, more double-team-worthy WR who is also an elite deep threat. Unlike Britt, Floyd is not a great route runner and is not likely to be a threat all over the field. We should conclude that Floyd is a situational deep threat, both in the NFL and as a FF asset.
Others that I would, at the time, put in the elite WR category:
-Sidney Rice (2009)
-Santonio Holmes (2007)
-Roy Williams (2006) <--I would have been very wrong.
-Roddy White (2006) <--Almost forgot he was considered primarily as a deep threat.
-Brandon Lloyd (10) <--Not young at the time, but he showed an great deal of change. He won't make this list if we take age into account.
-Dwyane Bowe (10)
Those I would have pegged as deep threats as a #1 target:
-Vincent Jackson (07)
-DeSean Jackson (08)
-Mike Wallace (2009/10) <--He showed he could be a teams do-all WR for a stretch, when need (think SB). But he returned to his old role with the emergence of Brown.
Others that I would have relegated to the situational deep threat category:
-Mario Manningham
-Nate Washington
-Lance Moore
-Robert Mecham
-Steve Breaston
A few that I would we as owner need to answer the above questions about, based on 2011:
-Eric Decker*
-AJ Green
-DHB
-Brandon LaFell
-Demarius Thomas *
-Torrey Smith
Green is obvious, but I would categorize them as such, based on potential:
Elite Category:
Green
Thomas*
Elite Deep Threat as a team's best WR:
DHB
Decker*
Smith
Situational Deep Threat:
LaFell
*Included due to the Tebow factor. Their Catch rates were below 50%, but close enough to assume 50%, should they ever get catchable targets.
2012 UPDATE:
Players meeting criteria (Thru w4):
AJ Green
Torrey Smith
R. Barden
Steve Smith (CAR)
DeSean Jackson
Nate Washington
Malcomn Floyd
Miles Austin
Golden Tate
Jon Baldwin** 14.8 YPC (Very close)
The list is full of very good WRs. Barden is one game, I am not putting anything into it, yet.
If this were to continue, the guys we would need to pay attention to, and potentially make a determination on:
Golden Tate
Jon Baldwin
Last edited by a moderator:
