A few players I'm really struggling with (1 Viewer)

[Deuce'sWild]

There are a number of players I'm really struggling to project this year. It just so happens, that most of them I'm also finding are the highest ranked players at their respective position when it comes time to draft at that round. Each time, I feel an uneasiness just before I pull the trigger. Here are just a few of the players I'm struggling with, broken down by position.. I also included some of my projections, so that you can analyze, critique, compare, etc...

Note: I have read all the spotlights, projected using the Projections Dominator, and followed the MB daily.

RB:

K. Jones

Could really be a solid producer this year. Martz seems to be an upgrade at OC, and Kitna should be able to loosen defenses more than Joey. Last year was a major disappointment for owners. Should have more opps to score and the fact that he's working on his hands should keep him on the field. Should be there in the 2nd or early 3rd. Question whether he'll fit into Martz system, and if Det will struggle early to adjust. Have him for: 250ca 1085yds 7td. 45rec 275yd 2tds.

W Parker

Really feel like he should be solid on the ground, but I'm confused on TD production. I have him for 6td on the ground and 1 rec. Will he get GL opps or will Duce or Humes be the man?

R. Droughns

Probably struggle with him the most of the rb. Last years td production (or lack of), makes me nervous. Frye at QB makes me nervous. Lack of firepower makes me nervous. Also wonder how much RBBC we'll see in Cle, per a homer's post on the Droughns topic. I have him for 6 rush td and 2 rec td....and 1213 rushing yds.

C. Taylor

I'm not worried about the shape he's in, or Moore cutting into his carries. More concerned about taking a 16 game schedule. It always makes you think twice when a career backup is moving into a full time starting job. Everytime I start to lower his numbers, I think back to how strong his OL is, and how good of a fulback he has now. BJ isn't a great QB, but he can keep a def honest IMO. Seems like he COULD be another Jordan type (as we all know who has suggested). I have him for: 250 ca 1088 yds 6 td, 42 rec 302 2td.

Dillon

Had 13 tds last year, despite being injured. Signing of Maroney may motivate him to put up some decent numbers. I doubt we see RBBC, so unless Dillon gets hurt or wears down (he is getting old), we won't see much of Maroney until maybe later in the year to keep him fresh. Nowwhere near the 345 carries he had in 2004, but I modest workload. I think he's got serious sleeper potential, if he can add some yardage to the td totals and stay healthy. 230 ca 920yds 10 tds. 19rec 150yd 1td.

WR:

R. Williams

Potential to be a MONSTER if he could stay healthy and find a qb to get him the ball. Martz has stated he will feature Roy in this offense (who else would it be?). All kinds of potential, but has yet to deliver a full season of good numbers. Has put up 8tds in first two seasons, despite a mediocre qb and bad, bad play calling. Now that Martz is in town, you have to expect better numbers. Kitna doesn't concern me, he's smart, experienced and has ENOUGH arm strength to make this offense work. I'm a little concerned because my numbers are way above the "experts". I have him for: 82 cat 1201 yds and 10tds.

D. Jackson

Looked great when he played. Was on track for 1285 and 8tds last year in the games he played. Rumored to not be 100% healthy. Got an improvement at #2 wr imo. Great QB. Just unsure about his health and if he can take his game to the next level. 75 1095 8 td

Reggie Brown

Getting no respect imho. #1 wr on a pass happy team. May not be the 1st option with Westy and LJ getting a lot of looks, but w/ around 500 pass attempts he'll see enough balls to put up respectable numbers. Had good numbers for a rookie w/o McNabb, you have to think he'll improve on those w/ McNabb healthy. I have: 62 900 and 6td.

K. Robinson

HC has said he's the clearcut #1 wr. Brad Johnson scares me a little, although I think he can get it done. Not sure he's suited for a #1 gig. Has suspect hands. I have no idea what he's goig to do, or if he represents value. My guess : 54 850 5td.

thats all I have time for tonight. let me have it.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

145 views and no response? At least tell me I'm an idiot. Gimme something

 

[H.K.]

C. Taylor

I'm not worried about the shape he's in, or Moore cutting into his carries.  More concerned about taking a 16 game schedule.  It always makes you think twice when a career backup is moving into a full time starting job.  Everytime I start to lower his numbers, I think back to how strong his OL is, and how good of a fulback he has now.  BJ isn't a great QB, but he can keep a def honest IMO.  Seems like he COULD be another Jordan type (as we all know who has suggested).  I have him for:  250 ca 1088 yds 6 td, 42 rec 302 2td.

... let me have it.

In PPR leagues, the numbers you've listed for Taylor would have been Top 10 last year. He'll be lucky to get half of what you've projected.

 

[Godsbrother]

W ParkerReally feel like he should be solid on the ground, but I'm confused on TD production. I have him for 6td on the ground and 1 rec. Will he get GL opps or will Duce or Humes be the man?

Parker will get few GL opportunities. Duce, Haynes and Humes are all more likely to get goalline carries than Parker and the Steelers love to go to Heath Miller, Hines Ward and have Ben carry the ball himself when they are inside the 5. I think 6 TDs on the ground is probably the most you can expect from Willie.On the other hand I see the Parker getting more receptions this season and this is where Parker can really hit the homerun.My projection for Willie is about 1600 total yards and maybe 8 TDs (5 rush, 3 rec)

 

[jerseyh8r]

Not alot of time before going to work, so it is gonna be a bit short.

K. JonesCould really be a solid producer this year. Martz seems to be an upgrade at OC, and Kitna should be able to loosen defenses more than Joey. Last year was a major disappointment for owners. Should have more opps to score and the fact that he's working on his hands should keep him on the field. Should be there in the 2nd or early 3rd. Question whether he'll fit into Martz system, and if Det will struggle early to adjust. Have him for: 250ca 1085yds 7td. 45rec 275yd 2tds.

I think it is hard to believe that Martz will utilize the run too much this year, especially considering they will likely be behind more than not. In the most conservative scenario, Martz runs the ball 44% of the time. If KJ sees 65% of those carries and he does actually participate in more 3rd downs this season (as they are saying) and he sees 9% of the QB targets:KJones: 279-1,115-8, 49-206-2

W ParkerReally feel like he should be solid on the ground, but I'm confused on TD production. I have him for 6td on the ground and 1 rec. Will he get GL opps or will Duce or Humes be the man?

I agree that someone else is going to see the RZ carries (I think Staley may be under-valued on the board). Last season, FWP only had 7 carries inside the 10 (of a total 53 carries). Haynes even had one more than him. I am guessing that Staley gets the touches initially, whether he produces or is capable of doing so, I do not know, but I am projecting...Parker (PIT) 292-1,286-4, 26-231-2Staley (PIT) 94-319- 7, 10-58-0

R. DroughnsProbably struggle with him the most of the rb. Last years td production (or lack of), makes me nervous. Frye at QB makes me nervous. Lack of firepower makes me nervous. Also wonder how much RBBC we'll see in Cle, per a homer's post on the Droughns topic. I have him for 6 rush td and 2 rec td....and 1213 rushing yds.

I know we kinda cringe at the thought of Rueben, but the Brown's gave him 78% of all carries last season, that is enough to convince me that they feel differently than we do. The problem, I agree, is the offense as a whole. I don't expect them to have more than 900 plays and they should be behind enough to keep them from running as much as they may like. Even if they give Droughns the same percentage of carries (which I do, +/- 4%), he is still a marginal RB2roughns 319-1,212-4, 37-225-2

C. TaylorI'm not worried about the shape he's in, or Moore cutting into his carries. More concerned about taking a 16 game schedule. It always makes you think twice when a career backup is moving into a full time starting job. Everytime I start to lower his numbers, I think back to how strong his OL is, and how good of a fulback he has now. BJ isn't a great QB, but he can keep a def honest IMO. Seems like he COULD be another Jordan type (as we all know who has suggested). I have him for: 250 ca 1088 yds 6 td, 42 rec 302 2td.

Ran out of time, was saving Taylor for last.Taylor 240-984-5, 43-257-3

DillonHad 13 tds last year, despite being injured. Signing of Maroney may motivate him to put up some decent numbers. I doubt we see RBBC, so unless Dillon gets hurt or wears down (he is getting old), we won't see much of Maroney until maybe later in the year to keep him fresh. Nowwhere near the 345 carries he had in 2004, but I modest workload. I think he's got serious sleeper potential, if he can add some yardage to the td totals and stay healthy. 230 ca 920yds 10 tds. 19rec 150yd 1td.

I expect that there will always be a RB1 in NE, where one guy gets the majority of the carries. The problem is that I see Maroney being that back in the 2nd half. IIRC, Dillon is 14th in NFL history in carries, so I suspect last year was the beginning of the end. I can't help but think that fresher legs is the answer for the Pats. That being said, I don't see Belichick giving the ball to a rookie in the RZ, so I like Dillon to have more TDs than Maroney, even once he takes over from the vet.Dillon 152-562-8, 22-151-0 Maroney 156-626-4, 20-122-1Just my . Will try WRs later if you like. Good Luck.

 

[Shermanator]

At least tell me I'm an idiot.

Your an idiot. nah, just kidding.I actually agree with everything you have to say. Its a well thought out post, that includes most of the major questionmarks this season.

I will say that Im LEAST concerned with Rueben Droughns and Chester Taylor.

Droughns should get a minimum of 300 carries, he should post strong numbers by default. If he bumps up the TD totals(which I assume he will), he will be a strong #2.

I cant see how Chester doesnt get 280 carries on the season. And all of a sudden he has a strong O-line with a great fullback. Plus Childress is likely to install many screen plays. If he enstills the Eagles offensive philosophy (I assume he will), Chester will see ALOT of passes. Scoring aside, I think Chester is a lock for 1500+ total yards. Another strong #2 back.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I wouldn't struggle with Droughns. He put up the same numbers in CLEVELAND that he put up in Denver. He can handle a 300-350 touch workload no problem.

Why should the 2 TD scare you? His ADP is a 3rd-4th rounder. Getting a RB who will put up 1500 total yards and an average amount of TDs is HUGE value. Who is gonna take the job from him?

His TD total can't get WORSE. If he goes up to 8 or 9 TDs like a normal RB with that workload then you can laugh all the way to the bank.

He reminds me of Tiki Barber after the 2003 season when everyone was talking about how he was only gonna get 2 or 3 TDs a year and his value slipped to like the 5th round.

Droughns is a solid, but not "sexy" pick and some people are hell bent on getting the sexy pick so they can say "I told you so" after the season.

 

[Z-Dog]

RB:K. JonesCould really be a solid producer this year. Martz seems to be an upgrade at OC, and Kitna should be able to loosen defenses more than Joey. Last year was a major disappointment for owners. Should have more opps to score and the fact that he's working on his hands should keep him on the field. Should be there in the 2nd or early 3rd. Question whether he'll fit into Martz system, and if Det will struggle early to adjust. Have him for: 250ca 1085yds 7td. 45rec 275yd 2tds.

I'm low on K.Jones. I don't think he has the receiving skills to stay on the field in passing situations, and Martz only runs the ball 40% of the time. Jones is obviously no Marshall Faulk, but I don't even think he's a Steve Jackson. In my book, Kevin Jones doesn't get 1,000 yards, and has about 25 catches.

W ParkerReally feel like he should be solid on the ground, but I'm confused on TD production. I have him for 6td on the ground and 1 rec. Will he get GL opps or will Duce or Humes be the man?

Staley will be goaline, or Verron Haynes. It won't be Parker, and that limits his upside. I also think Pittsburgh will suffer a Superbowl hangover this year, and will lose the division to the Bengals. I see lower production for eveyrone excet Ben, who will have more stats, but less efficiency.

R. DroughnsProbably struggle with him the most of the rb. Last years td production (or lack of), makes me nervous. Frye at QB makes me nervous. Lack of firepower makes me nervous. Also wonder how much RBBC we'll see in Cle, per a homer's post on the Droughns topic. I have him for 6 rush td and 2 rec td....and 1213 rushing yds.

Droughns lack of TDs has more to do with a poor offense and questionable playcalling than with an inability on his part to get the ball over the stripe. With his back-to-back 1200 yard seasons, he's a bargain, being chosen a few picks afer Willie Parker, a back in an RBBC who does NOT have back-to-back 1200 yard seasons.

C. TaylorI'm not worried about the shape he's in, or Moore cutting into his carries. More concerned about taking a 16 game schedule. It always makes you think twice when a career backup is moving into a full time starting job. Everytime I start to lower his numbers, I think back to how strong his OL is, and how good of a fulback he has now. BJ isn't a great QB, but he can keep a def honest IMO. Seems like he COULD be another Jordan type (as we all know who has suggested). I have him for: 250 ca 1088 yds 6 td, 42 rec 302 2td.

I was back and forth on this guy, but I think I settled on back. I like his ability, but I hate his situation. While Minnesota has a pretty nice offensive line, they have a dismal QB situation. Brad Johnson is 37 years old, and I dno't like his odds of playing the whole season. McMahon, Shaun Hill, and Tarvaris Jackson are the backups, and I don't think any of them is currently starting caliber. Which means that if/when Johnson goes down, we're looking at an NYJ-style offensive implosion of the sort that kills fantasy production. I'm saying no thanks to that.

DillonHad 13 tds last year, despite being injured. Signing of Maroney may motivate him to put up some decent numbers. I doubt we see RBBC, so unless Dillon gets hurt or wears down (he is getting old), we won't see much of Maroney until maybe later in the year to keep him fresh. Nowwhere near the 345 carries he had in 2004, but I modest workload. I think he's got serious sleeper potential, if he can add some yardage to the td totals and stay healthy. 230 ca 920yds 10 tds. 19rec 150yd 1td.

After the age of 30, a bad year for an RB spells the end of the line. Dillon isn't goign to get 200 carries this year.

WR:R. WilliamsPotential to be a MONSTER if he could stay healthy and find a qb to get him the ball. Martz has stated he will feature Roy in this offense (who else would it be?). All kinds of potential, but has yet to deliver a full season of good numbers. Has put up 8tds in first two seasons, despite a mediocre qb and bad, bad play calling. Now that Martz is in town, you have to expect better numbers. Kitna doesn't concern me, he's smart, experienced and has ENOUGH arm strength to make this offense work. I'm a little concerned because my numbers are way above the "experts". I have him for: 82 cat 1201 yds and 10tds.

If only I believed in Jon Kitna. I think Martz's offense is at least a year away. Williams is regularly being projected at 1200 & 8-12 TDs. Those are numbers he will surpass by the time Martz is done with him, but I don't think he gets quite that high this year.

D. JacksonLooked great when he played. Was on track for 1285 and 8tds last year in the games he played. Rumored to not be 100% healthy. Got an improvement at #2 wr imo. Great QB. Just unsure about his health and if he can take his game to the next level. 75 1095 8 td

Looks like you built some injury risk into those numbers. That's a good idea, but do it for every player. Roy Williams should have similar-loking numbers to this.

Reggie BrownGetting no respect imho. #1 wr on a pass happy team. May not be the 1st option with Westy and LJ getting a lot of looks, but w/ around 500 pass attempts he'll see enough balls to put up respectable numbers. Had good numbers for a rookie w/o McNabb, you have to think he'll improve on those w/ McNabb healthy. I have: 62 900 and 6td.

I agree with you on this 100%. Actually, I think McNabb will be on a mission to get Brown good stats.

K. RobinsonHC has said he's the clearcut #1 wr. Brad Johnson scares me a little, although I think he can get it done. Not sure he's suited for a #1 gig. Has suspect hands. I have no idea what he's goig to do, or if he represents value. My guess : 54 850 5td.

Already addressed this issue. Your projections for him look good to me.

 

[dapunisher]

WR:

R. Williams

Potential to be a MONSTER if he could stay healthy and find a qb to get him the ball. Martz has stated he will feature Roy in this offense (who else would it be?). All kinds of potential, but has yet to deliver a full season of good numbers. Has put up 8tds in first two seasons, despite a mediocre qb and bad, bad play calling. Now that Martz is in town, you have to expect better numbers. Kitna doesn't concern me, he's smart, experienced and has ENOUGH arm strength to make this offense work. I'm a little concerned because my numbers are way above the "experts". I have him for: 82 cat 1201 yds and 10tds.

Just remind yourself of this - sometimes you are right, despite a consensus of expert opinion to the contrary. Last year, I targeted Steve Smith as my #1WR, having lost him in the first game of the prior season and thinking that he would be undervalued. I'm a Panthers fan, and felt like he would be the go to guy and have a breakout season. Now I'm not saying that I thought he would be the #1 overall WR in the league, but I thought his #12-14 ranking that I saw was too low. I had him just outside the Big 3 and a value play. Long story short, the team two spots before me grabbed him before I could and they rode him all the way to the championship game (they lost).Maybe that's a bad example, but the point I'm trying to convey is that being a slight contrarian to the experts sometimes affords you the opportunity to make a value play on draft night. This season, I see Roy Williams and Andre Johnson as guys who could put up top 5 numbers and yet both are sitting in the bottom half of many Top 20 rankings and available as late as the 4th round.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

If only I believed in Jon Kitna. I think Martz's offense is at least a year away. Williams is regularly being projected at 1200 & 8-12 TDs. Those are numbers he will surpass by the time Martz is done with him, but I don't think he gets quite that high this year.

I agree, but Roy isn't coming into the season hurt. He has a history of being injury prone, which scares you, but Djax is actually injured coming into the season.

Thanks for the feedback.

 

[Tau837]

W Parker

Really feel like he should be solid on the ground, but I'm confused on TD production. I have him for 6td on the ground and 1 rec. Will he get GL opps or will Duce or Humes be the man?

Some good info here, although this thread is a bit dated now: Player Spotlight: Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh SteelersOne interesting point IMO is that no Steelers RB has had more than 255 carries since 2000. This is indirectly related to your question because the Steelers have tended to define roles over that span. Now, granted, is that because of preference or because of having a guy like Bettis who was well suited to a GL role?

Regardless, I don't think Parker is well suited to carrying a heavy load, so I expect the Steelers to use Staley/Haynes situationally. Given this but also considering Parker's breakaway ability, I think 6-7 TDs is a good projection for Parker.

R. Droughns

Probably struggle with him the most of the rb. Last years td production (or lack of), makes me nervous. Frye at QB makes me nervous. Lack of firepower makes me nervous. Also wonder how much RBBC we'll see in Cle, per a homer's post on the Droughns topic. I have him for 6 rush td and 2 rec td....and 1213 rushing yds.

I'm not one of those search police guys, but this thread is still on the front page has lots of good info: Droughns, I just can't draft this guy

D. Jackson

Looked great when he played. Was on track for 1285 and 8tds last year in the games he played. Rumored to not be 100% healthy. Got an improvement at #2 wr imo. Great QB. Just unsure about his health and if he can take his game to the next level. 75 1095 8 td

Not on the front page, but less than a week old, also with good info: Player Spotlight: Darrell Jackson, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Reggie Brown

Getting no respect imho. #1 wr on a pass happy team. May not be the 1st option with Westy and LJ getting a lot of looks, but w/ around 500 pass attempts he'll see enough balls to put up respectable numbers. Had good numbers for a rookie w/o McNabb, you have to think he'll improve on those w/ McNabb healthy. I have: 62 900 and 6td.

This one was active as of yesterday: Reggie Brown, Under the radar as Eagles #1 WRAlso older info here: Player Spotlight: Reggie Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

I'm not linking to all these threads to be a board policeman, really. It's just that these were threads that all attracted my attention, and so I immediately thought of them when I saw your post. Suggest you review those, since they will be helpful in answering some of your questions. And if you don't find the info you want there, perhaps reviving those threads with a new post would be useful.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

[

After the age of 30, a bad year for an RB spells the end of the line. Dillon isn't goign to get 200 carries this year.

WR:Can you explain that to Curtis Martin a couple of years ago? I think Dillon is driven by motivation this year to excel. After this year, I have no faith in him. Something tells me he can get it done, and he's cheap...so is his handcuff.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

W Parker

Really feel like he should be solid on the ground, but I'm confused on TD production.  I have him for 6td on the ground and 1 rec.  Will he get GL opps or will Duce or Humes be the man?

Some good info here, although this thread is a bit dated now: Player Spotlight: Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh SteelersOne interesting point IMO is that no Steelers RB has had more than 255 carries since 2000. This is indirectly related to your question because the Steelers have tended to define roles over that span. Now, granted, is that because of preference or because of having a guy like Bettis who was well suited to a GL role?

Regardless, I don't think Parker is well suited to carrying a heavy load, so I expect the Steelers to use Staley/Haynes situationally. Given this but also considering Parker's breakaway ability, I think 6-7 TDs is a good projection for Parker.

R. Droughns

Probably struggle with him the most of the rb.  Last years td production (or lack of), makes me nervous.  Frye at QB makes me nervous.  Lack of firepower makes me nervous.  Also wonder how much RBBC we'll see in Cle, per a homer's post on the Droughns topic.  I have him for 6 rush td and 2 rec td....and 1213 rushing yds.

I'm not one of those search police guys, but this thread is still on the front page has lots of good info: Droughns, I just can't draft this guy

D. Jackson

Looked great when he played.  Was on track for 1285 and 8tds last year in the games he played.  Rumored to not be 100% healthy.  Got an improvement at #2 wr imo.  Great QB.  Just unsure about his health and if he can take his game to the next level.  75 1095 8 td

Not on the front page, but less than a week old, also with good info: Player Spotlight: Darrell Jackson, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Reggie Brown

Getting no respect imho.  #1 wr on a pass happy team.  May not be the 1st option with Westy and LJ getting a lot of looks, but w/ around 500 pass attempts he'll see enough balls to put up respectable numbers.  Had good numbers for a rookie w/o McNabb, you have to think he'll improve on those w/ McNabb healthy.  I have:  62 900 and 6td.

This one was active as of yesterday: Reggie Brown, Under the radar as Eagles #1 WRAlso older info here: Player Spotlight: Reggie Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

I'm not linking to all these threads to be a board policeman, really. It's just that these were threads that all attracted my attention, and so I immediately thought of them when I saw your post. Suggest you review those, since they will be helpful in answering some of your questions. And if you don't find the info you want there, perhaps reviving those threads with a new post would be useful.

Thanks. I have read all of those threads though, and was trying to keep feedback on just a few players from the MB.

 

[Tau837]

Thanks. I have read all of those threads though, and was trying to keep feedback on just a few players from the MB.

OK. Hard to imagine that the same level of info will develop on those players as in those other threads that were focused exclusively on one of these players. Especially for those whose other threads are currently active.

 

[jerseyh8r]

R. WilliamsPotential to be a MONSTER if he could stay healthy and find a qb to get him the ball. Martz has stated he will feature Roy in this offense (who else would it be?). All kinds of potential, but has yet to deliver a full season of good numbers. Has put up 8tds in first two seasons, despite a mediocre qb and bad, bad play calling. Now that Martz is in town, you have to expect better numbers. Kitna doesn't concern me, he's smart, experienced and has ENOUGH arm strength to make this offense work. I'm a little concerned because my numbers are way above the "experts". I have him for: 82 cat 1201 yds and 10tds.

I think this is one of the players who has burned a few guys, so he may be a good value looking at him more objectively. The problem with him is that for every guy who doesn't like him b/c he has gotten burned, there is gonna be another guy who is drinking the Martz Kool-Aid and takes him too early.I have him at WR10 and tiered within a point/game of Fitz, Wayne and Ward. I think that Martz throws the ball at least 55% of the time (and that is conservative) and Williams catches 57% of 28% of QB targets. If they throw more, I expect his value to be higher, whereas Ward and Wayne's projections are closer to their respective ceilings than is William's. I like him alot this year and would be targeting him if I thought he would come to me in the draft. Williams (DET) 87-1220-8....so I pretty much agree with you.

 

[Z-Dog]

[

After the age of 30, a bad year for an RB spells the end of the line. Dillon isn't goign to get 200 carries this year. WR:

Can you explain that to Curtis Martin a couple of years ago? I think Dillon is driven by motivation this year to excel. After this year, I have no faith in him. Something tells me he can get it done, and he's cheap...so is his handcuff.
The worst season that Curtis Martin had (before last season obviously) was in 2002, when he had 1094 yards and 4.2 ypc, 7 TDs, and 49 catches. For lots of RBs that's not a down year, but for Martin it was. He was 29 that year. The following year he had over 1300 yards rushing, but with only 2 TDs and 100 fewer yards receiving, his fantasy numbers were nearly identical. So I'm not sure what you mean by a comeback... nor does this qualify as a bad year after age 30, since it wasn't a bad year really, nor did it happen after age 30.Corey Dillon, OTOH, managed only 733 yards on 3.5 ypc. He will be 32 in October. You make the call: will he be like the 99% of backs his age, who dont' re-enter the 1000 yard club after falling out of it after age 30, or will he be only the sixth RB to manage that feat?

 

[jerseyh8r]

D. JacksonLooked great when he played. Was on track for 1285 and 8tds last year in the games he played. Rumored to not be 100% healthy. Got an improvement at #2 wr imo. Great QB. Just unsure about his health and if he can take his game to the next level. 75 1095 8 td

Jackson's knee concerns me a little bit, but I think it should be OK with some rest and further rehab. I was trying to value guys based on the injury history earlier in the month, and got talked out it simply b/c there isn't a huge difference historically between WRs hurt one year (or not) and how many games they play the following season. So I like Jackson (assuming he is healthy at the end of preseason). I think that he is ranked a bit high @ FBGs (WR10) but his ADP looks to be closer to what I am comfortable with. I think the buzz would be alot bigger right now had he not gotten called for pass-interference in the Super Bowl. He would have had a big game, the Hawks may have won and he would be looked at as a guy who successfully raised his game on the biggest stage. One little push (a questionable one at that) has him sitting a little lower, but probably where he rightfully belongs.Jackson (SEA) 84-1008-9 (WR14)....one pt/game worse than Roy Williams.

 

[jerseyh8r]

Reggie Brown

Getting no respect imho. #1 wr on a pass happy team. May not be the 1st option with Westy and LJ getting a lot of looks, but w/ around 500 pass attempts he'll see enough balls to put up respectable numbers. Had good numbers for a rookie w/o McNabb, you have to think he'll improve on those w/ McNabb healthy. I have: 62 900 and 6td.

His FBG rank is currently WR33, I have him at WR37. ADP has him WR29. I agree with the notion that he should have respectable numbers, but McNabb likes to spread the ball around alot (think back to the dreaded James Thrash days to think of target distribution). I think Brown is one of those guys who may frustrate a little b/c he only caught 53% of the balls thrown to him in weeks 1-10. That makes me hesitant to move him much higher. I like him to see 23% of targets (most of the team), but his catch % may limit his fantasy production.Brown (PHI) 70-845-4...but I see this as minimum projections.

 

[jerseyh8r]

K. Robinson

HC has said he's the clearcut #1 wr. Brad Johnson scares me a little, although I think he can get it done. Not sure he's suited for a #1 gig. Has suspect hands. I have no idea what he's goig to do, or if he represents value. My guess : 54 850 5td.

ADP is WR35, which is low considering he is reportedly the #1 target on a pass first team. Yes, there have to be concerns with Johnson staying healthy, and he could combust at any minute. But there is alot of upside considering his ADP, so he may have good value. I like him as WR31, seeing the most targets for the Vikes and putting up respectable numbers.Robinson (MIN) 66-920-6

 

[JimmyD]

D. Jackson

Looked great when he played.  Was on track for 1285 and 8tds last year in the games he played.  Rumored to not be 100% healthy.  Got an improvement at #2 wr imo.  Great QB.  Just unsure about his health and if he can take his game to the next level.  75 1095 8 td

Jackson's knee concerns me a little bit, but I think it should be OK with some rest and further rehab. I was trying to value guys based on the injury history earlier in the month, and got talked out it simply b/c there isn't a huge difference historically between WRs hurt one year (or not) and how many games they play the following season. So I like Jackson (assuming he is healthy at the end of preseason). I think that he is ranked a bit high @ FBGs (WR10) but his ADP looks to be closer to what I am comfortable with. I think the buzz would be alot bigger right now had he not gotten called for pass-interference in the Super Bowl. He would have had a big game, the Hawks may have won and he would be looked at as a guy who successfully raised his game on the biggest stage. One little push (a questionable one at that) has him sitting a little lower, but probably where he rightfully belongs.Jackson (SEA) 84-1008-9 (WR14)....one pt/game worse than Roy Williams.

You hit the nail on the head. He could represent a lot of value because of the injury, but I see no reason why he won't be healthy this season. This guy may not produce like he did early last year, but he'll still produce.

 

[MLBrandow]

C. Taylor

I'm not worried about the shape he's in, or Moore cutting into his carries. More concerned about taking a 16 game schedule. It always makes you think twice when a career backup is moving into a full time starting job. Everytime I start to lower his numbers, I think back to how strong his OL is, and how good of a fulback he has now. BJ isn't a great QB, but he can keep a def honest IMO. Seems like he COULD be another Jordan type (as we all know who has suggested). I have him for: 250 ca 1088 yds 6 td, 42 rec 302 2td.

Dillon

Had 13 tds last year, despite being injured. Signing of Maroney may motivate him to put up some decent numbers. I doubt we see RBBC, so unless Dillon gets hurt or wears down (he is getting old), we won't see much of Maroney until maybe later in the year to keep him fresh. Nowwhere near the 345 carries he had in 2004, but I modest workload. I think he's got serious sleeper potential, if he can add some yardage to the td totals and stay healthy. 230 ca 920yds 10 tds. 19rec 150yd 1td.

Reggie Brown

Getting no respect imho. #1 wr on a pass happy team. May not be the 1st option with Westy and LJ getting a lot of looks, but w/ around 500 pass attempts he'll see enough balls to put up respectable numbers. Had good numbers for a rookie w/o McNabb, you have to think he'll improve on those w/ McNabb healthy. I have: 62 900 and 6td.

Taylor - He has not shown nearly the starting potential Jordan did. That the two were backups and are now being given chance to be starters is about the end of the comparisons, and Jordan didn't have Mewelde Moore and a terrible work ethic against him.Dillon - 230 carries is extremely low. In '01 and '02 when Smith was the feature back, and people laughed at NE and said they didn't have a running game, even he got the ball 287 and 252 times, respectively. He also averaged 4ypc, which leads me to believe that your Dillon projection is extremely low. If anything, the drafting and sitting on the bench of Maroney will only motivate both Dillon and Belichick to net more carries, because if he goes down, there's a guy looming to replace him. And Dillon will want to prove that he can still be an every down back for the next 2-3 years. I expect 290 as a floor, and probably a lot closer to 350 (scaling from your numbers, that would be 1400 yards and 15TDs).

Brown - I think you continue to disrespect him with this projection. Granted it's solid, I believe Brown will be money for at least 1100/7. I read he had been running routes with McNabb in ARI all offseason between MC and TC. That's a fantastic sign for a WR looking to breakout.