A historical look at QBs drafted #1 (1 Viewer)

[Bob Henry]

Happy draft day, my fellow FBGs!

I was watching the NFL network last night right after the ticker announced the Stafford signing. There was a segment on the biggest NFL draft busts and Tim Couch was among them. I couldn't help but make the comparison of Stafford to Couch. Maybe fair, maybe not. Both Stafford and Couch were annointed as the “next great QB” by recruiting pundits as the top-rated in their recruiting classes. Both became #1 picks in the NFL, too. We know what happened to Couch. Let’s hope for the Lion’s sake that Stafford takes a higher road.

First, let’s establish some loose criteria for what constitutes a Yes or a No.

A QB picked #1 is a success (or Yes) if:

a) the team won a SB with him,

b) the QB has a solid career with at least a few Pro Bowl appearances, or

c) the QB leads his team to multiple playoff appearances with some wins in that mix (making the playoffs isn’t enough, you have to win some games, too).

Here's a look at the QBs drafted #1 overall over the last 30 40 years:

1970: Terry Bradshaw – Yes - duh

1971: Jim Plunkett – Close call – no pro bowls, but 1980 SB MVP and Comeback POTY, 9-2 playoff record, but just a 72-72 career record with just a 52% career comp%, 164 TDs and 198 INTs; a bust with the Pats, but a late bloomer with the Raiders; YES on his playoff / SB success (2 titles – ’80, ’83)

1975: Steve Bartkowski – No, but a close call: 2 time pro bowler, career record of 59-68, 1 playoff win (1-3 record)

1983: John Elway – Yes – duh

1987: Vinny Testaverde – No – 2-time Pro Bowler, 3 playoff appearances (3-2 record), 90-123-1 career record as starter, career passer rating of just 75, led NFL in INTS 4 times, twice finished in top 5 in TDs thrown, but a late bloomer with a long, fairly solid career

1989: Troy Aikman – Yes – duh

1990: Jeff George – No – no Pro Bowls, 2 playoff appearances (1-2 record), 46-78 record as starter, led NFL in passing yds in ’97 and was 2nd in TDs, but didn’t make the Pro Bowl and team went 4-12 – a good representation of George’s career

1993: Drew Bledsoe – Yes (barely) - 4-time Pro Bowler, technically 1 Super Bowl (2001, but he went 0-2 as starter that year), post-season record as starter (3-3, 3 appearances), 98-95 record as starter, 77.1 career passer rating, NFL career leader for Pass Att/G (34.6)

1998: Peyton Manning – Yes – duh

1999: Tim Couch – No – flamed out after 5 years, a 22-37 record as a starter, no playoff appearances

2001: Michael Vick – No – 3-time Pro Bowler in 6 NFL seasons, 2 playoff appearances (2-2 record), career NFL leader among QBs for rush yds/attempt and lead league in category 4 of his 6 seasons – perhaps book is unwritten yet, but at this stage his 3 Pro Bowls are not enough even though one of his playoff wins came in Lambeau, tough call. If it weren’t for his legal woes, he’d arguably be a Yes, especially with 2-3 more years of service.

2002: David Carr – No – 23-56 career record as starter, no playoffs, no Pro Bowls, not even a sniff of any of the criteria, mostly known for getting sacked (led league in 3 of his first 4 years) and fumbling (lead league twice)

2003: Carson Palmer – No, not yet anyway – 2 time Pro Bowler, 32-33 record, 0-1 playoffs, led league in TDs thrown in 2005, then INTs thrown in 2007, could still become a yes, but as of now a No

2004: Eli Manning – Yes, by virtue of his Super Bowl title, otherwise underwhelming and mediocre – 1 Pro Bowl, 4 playoff appearances (1 title, 3 one-and-

dones, 4-3 record), 42-29 record as starter, Super Bowl MVP being the difference

2005: Alex Smith – No, definitely not

2007: JaMarcus Russell – No, but still far too early to judge

RECAP: 16 occurences in 30 years, 7 QBs with a YES, 9 with a NO, 6 who started and won a SB; though a few of those 16 have time to go from a No to a Yes.

Let’s just say it’s about a 50/50 proposition – at best – that Stafford will make a Pro Bowl, win 1 playoff game, much less a QB.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I disagree with several of your yes/no choices, but they pretty much even out. Just about every top ten pick is a 50/50 proposition, regardless of position; RBs and DBs hit better than most, DEs and OL worse than most.

I disagree with the Couch call, though. He's another Mike Leach guy, before we knew that existed.

 

[Bob Henry]

I hear ya, Chase. Some of those Yes/No calls are totally up for grabs. Bledsoe, Vick and maybe even Vinny.. but I agree that they tend to even out. I'm not suggesting that Stafford is Couch, but the similarities are there from a profile perspective.

One could argue the Lions dubious history with respect to QBs and lack of success in the playoffs does not bode well for Stafford. Then again, Stafford could be the guy that finally turns lady luck around for the Motor City Kitties.

I thought it would be fun just to take a look at these QBs and how they fared over their career.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I hear ya, Chase. Some of those Yes/No calls are totally up for grabs. Bledsoe, Vick and maybe even Vinny.. but I agree that they tend to even out. I'm not suggesting that Stafford is Couch, but the similarities are there from a profile perspective. One could argue the Lions dubious history with respect to QBs and lack of success in the playoffs does not bode well for Stafford. Then again, Stafford could be the guy that finally turns lady luck around for the Motor City Kitties. I thought it would be fun just to take a look at these QBs and how they fared over their career.

I think Stafford = Cutler. Obviously I don't think he projects to be *that* good, but Stafford has good tools. I like him more than Sanchez for sure; Stafford is not a perfect prospect, but he's very good. A legit #1, though.

 

[Matt Waldman]

Stafford is a guy that is in a perfect situation. I'm listening to ESPN in my hotel room and their reaction to Stafford is that he needs a couple of years. I agree that he does, but it's because of the team he's drafted to, not his skills compared to Ryan or Flacco.

What they didn't mention is that the Lions are in a perfect position for a young QB if they play it the way they are supposed to and not to the expectations of the media/some less informed fans:

-Culpepper has gotten ready to play this season and he should be used to hold down the fort for at least 8 games, if not the entire year. This organization should be patient. They aren't a borderline contender needing an extra push. They stink. They have nowhere to go but up and they need to keep Stafford on the bench until the surrounding talent improves a little more. Not a lot, just enough to understand what to expect from the Schwartz system. As long as Detroit understands they have a player who will eventually win them close games, but right now they need get the foundation of the team to improve (o-line and defense), then they should be an 8- to 10-win team by 2011.

People will argue the amount of money he's being paid that he should play now, but those are the same people who misunderstand that you don't get immediate returns on some investments and that's ok - especially big ones like this.

I agree the Couch = Leach system thing is dead-on, but that's the nature of the spread formation. Let's get something clear:

The spread formation is a fast break offense where receivers get open for the quarterback and rare does the QB have to get the WR open. He throws to a spot/route with low technical difficulty as a pass. You can be accurate much easier when you're not dropping back.

The pro sets require the QB to help get the WR open by looking off receivers. He also has to analyze the defense in situations with a higher degree of difficulty and throw the ball to routes that are much harder to hit.

Stafford is a pro set QB with a great arm. So was Cutler. Leinart? yep, but lacked the arm and work ethic thus far. Couch? Spread guy. Palmer - pro set guy. Brady - pro set guy. Ryan -pro set. Young - spread.

Name a spread formation QB in college who has made it in the NFL. I can't think of one. Vick comes close for a year or two, but by sheer fact of his incredible mobility.

 

[Matt Waldman]

Stafford is a guy that is in a perfect situation. I'm listening to ESPN in my hotel room and their reaction to Stafford is that he needs a couple of years. I agree that he does, but it's because of the team he's drafted to, not his skills compared to Ryan or Flacco.

What they didn't mention is that the Lions are in a perfect position for a young QB if they play it the way they are supposed to and not to the expectations of the media/some less informed fans:

-Culpepper has gotten ready to play this season and he should be used to hold down the fort for at least 8 games, if not the entire year. This organization should be patient. They aren't a borderline contender needing an extra push. They stink. They have nowhere to go but up and they need to keep Stafford on the bench until the surrounding talent improves a little more. Not a lot, just enough to understand what to expect from the Schwartz system. As long as Detroit understands they have a player who will eventually win them close games, but right now they need get the foundation of the team to improve (o-line and defense), then they should be an 8- to 10-win team by 2011.

People will argue the amount of money he's being paid that he should play now, but those are the same people who misunderstand that you don't get immediate returns on some investments and that's ok - especially big ones like this.

I agree the Couch = Leach system thing is dead-on, but that's the nature of the spread formation. Let's get something clear:

The spread formation is a fast break offense where receivers get open for the quarterback and rare does the QB have to get the WR open. He throws to a spot/route with low technical difficulty as a pass. You can be accurate much easier when you're not dropping back.

The pro sets require the QB to help get the WR open by looking off receivers. He also has to analyze the defense in situations with a higher degree of difficulty and throw the ball to routes that are much harder to hit.

Stafford is a pro set QB with a great arm. So was Cutler. Leinart? yep, but lacked the arm and work ethic thus far. Couch? Spread guy. Palmer - pro set guy. Brady - pro set guy. Ryan -pro set. Young - spread.

Name a spread formation QB in college who has made it in the NFL. I can't think of one. Vick comes close for a year or two, but by sheer fact of his incredible mobility.