A Question for the Tebow Haters (1 Viewer)

[Ghost Rider]

When he starts beating the good teams and/or can keep his team in a high scoring game, I'll change my opinion on his viability.

Are you really gonna stick by this statement that is inaccurate on multiple levels?

 

[shnikies]

Not that it matters, but Jim Trotter of CNNSI has Tebow @ QB5.

link

5. Tim Tebow, Broncos: He looked so completely lost as a passer after his first two starts this season, I put him 31st in my midseason rankings. But Tebow is a different QB today. He has flourished since the Broncos adjusted their offense to take advantage of his read-option skill set.

Overall, he is 6-1 as a starter, with 11 touchdowns (nine passing) and only two turnovers (one fumble, one INT). But his incredible rise up the rankings is due to him coming up biggest when games matter most: at the end. Review the Broncos' last six wins and you will see Tebow was an integral factor in the outcome, particularly down the stretch. Will it last? Who cares? The rankings are about today, not tomorrow.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/jim_trotter/12/07/quarterback.ratings/index.html#ixzz1fzht6WWI

I want you to review another team's last 5 wins and think about what that team's QB has done.In one game, he overcame a 24-3 deficit to earn a comeback 30-27 win.

In one game, he drove his team 92 yards down the field at Pittsburgh to score a winning TD with 8 seconds left.

In one game, he put up a 105.5 QB ranking in a game with first place in the division on the line in a 31-24 win.

In one game, he led his team on a 4th quarter TD drive to clinch a 16-6 victory against a 9-1 team that had the NFL's top-ranked defense.

Who is the author of these incredible late-game heroics? The #22 QB on that list, Joe Flacco. Why is it when Tebow wins, it's all about Tebow, but when other teams win, it's about a great team effort?

Flacco got plenty of credit for those performances. But more importantly, he entered the season with 48 starts, he's expected to do it. Tebow entered the season with 3 starts and everyone saying he can't play the position yet he has 5 4QC's/GWD's in his first 10 starts.

 

[ZWK]

One simple way to evaluate a quarterback is to look at how good the team's offense is. That's a good approach to take with Tebow, since he plays such a large role in the offense even when he's handing off, which won't show up on his stat line.

So how good has Denver's offense been in Tebow's 7 starts? They've scored 21.6 points per game, versus a league average this season of 21.9 ppg, so they're about average there (they'd rank 20th). In yards per game they're at 323, versus a league average of 345, so they're a bit below average (also 20th). Points and yards aren't perfect stats, but they're pretty good measures of an offense, they're simple, and they tell a similar story here.

We can also look at the numbers from Advanced NFL Stats (move the slider to include only weeks 7-13), which do a better job of isolating the contribution of the offense (as explained here). The Broncos offense has -28.2 Expected Points Added over Tebow's 7 games (4 points per game below average), which is actually near the bottom of the league (it ranks 29th for that 7-game stretch). But in Win Probability Added, Denver's offense is at +0.37, which is slightly above average (ranking 16th).

There's some inconsistency between the different stats (since Win Probability Added gives them a ton of credit for game-winning touchdown drives, while Expected Points Added doesn't treat those drives as any different from any other touchdown drive), but on the whole the picture seems to be a slightly below average offense. Since the rest of their personnel isn't great, Tebow has probably been pretty close to average at QB over his 7 starts, although he's doing it in an unconventional way.

Do the advanced stats factor in that they are almost never turning the ball over? If my offense could promise me average results in Pts and yards without and TO's, I would take that in a heartbeat. If offered that as the coach of a terrible team with horrific offensive "weapons", I would be jumping for joy.

Yes, they factor in turnovers. Win Probability Added uses a model (based on tons of actual games) which predicts the team's chances of winning given the current game situation (score, time left, down, distance, field position) and updates its estimate after every play. The offense's Win Probability Added is calculated by looking at every play that the offense runs, seeing how much it changed the team's chances of winning, and adding all those numbers up. A play that turns that ball over obviously hurts a team's chance of winning, so Denver's lack of turnovers helps their rating, compared to other teams which turn it over more.Expected Points Added does something similar, but it's based on assigning a point value to each game situation (down, distance, and field position). It also includes turnovers. For instance, having the ball 1st & 10 at midfield is worth about +2 Expected Points (explained here), so a turnover in that situation which gives the other team the ball at midfield is worth -4 Expected Points Added because it took your team from a situation that was worth +2 Expected Points to one that is worth -2 Expected Points.

 

[DoubleG]

Some real data to help determine how good a FANTASY QB Tebow has been. I looked at the QB points scored for games 7-13 (all of the games after Tebow's bye week) for the top 15 QBs and determined their averages and standard deviations (after all, scoring 40 points one week and 0 the next gives you a high average, but a sure loss in the second week). I only looked at QBs who were starters over this entire seven game period.Scoring is fairly standard: 0.04 pts/passing yard, 0.10 pts/rushing yard, 4 pts/passing TD, 6 points/rushing TD, -2 points/IntHere is what the data show, ranked by average points (average/SD):1) Rodgers: 27.1/4.42) Newton: 24.3/8.6 (tie)2) Brees: 24.3/9.8 (tie)4) Brady: 20.6/5.65) Manning: 18.5/4.66) TEBOW: 18.3/3.97) Ryan: 18.0/4.38) Stafford: 17.9/8.09) Romo: 17.3/5.010) Roethlisberger: 16.8/5.911) Rivers: 15.6/6.712) Sanchez: 14.7/6.113) Moore: 14.5/5.714) Dalton: 14.0/4.315) Flacco: 10.9/4.3So, Tebow is ranked #6, just behind Eli. But Tebow has the smallest standard deviation of any of the QBs -- he clearly is the most consistent. And at a high, but not highest, level. Interestingly, the two QBs with the greatest standard deviation were Brees (by far) and Stafford. Of course, Brees performs at such a high level that even his bad games are OK.

Nice work sir. Thanks for the nice contribution.

 

[TimTebow]

Some real data to help determine how good a FANTASY QB Tebow has been. I looked at the QB points scored for games 7-13 (all of the games after Tebow's bye week) for the top 15 QBs and determined their averages and standard deviations (after all, scoring 40 points one week and 0 the next gives you a high average, but a sure loss in the second week). I only looked at QBs who were starters over this entire seven game period.Scoring is fairly standard: 0.04 pts/passing yard, 0.10 pts/rushing yard, 4 pts/passing TD, 6 points/rushing TD, -2 points/IntHere is what the data show, ranked by average points (average/SD):1) Rodgers: 27.1/4.42) Newton: 24.3/8.6 (tie)2) Brees: 24.3/9.8 (tie)4) Brady: 20.6/5.65) Manning: 18.5/4.66) TEBOW: 18.3/3.97) Ryan: 18.0/4.38) Stafford: 17.9/8.09) Romo: 17.3/5.010) Roethlisberger: 16.8/5.911) Rivers: 15.6/6.712) Sanchez: 14.7/6.113) Moore: 14.5/5.714) Dalton: 14.0/4.315) Flacco: 10.9/4.3So, Tebow is ranked #6, just behind Eli. But Tebow has the smallest standard deviation of any of the QBs -- he clearly is the most consistent. And at a high, but not highest, level. Interestingly, the two QBs with the greatest standard deviation were Brees (by far) and Stafford. Of course, Brees performs at such a high level that even his bad games are OK.

Nice work sir. Thanks for the nice contribution.

I want to thank Lord Jesus Christ above.

 

[Chaka]

Some real data to help determine how good a FANTASY QB Tebow has been. I looked at the QB points scored for games 7-13 (all of the games after Tebow's bye week) for the top 15 QBs and determined their averages and standard deviations (after all, scoring 40 points one week and 0 the next gives you a high average, but a sure loss in the second week). I only looked at QBs who were starters over this entire seven game period.Scoring is fairly standard: 0.04 pts/passing yard, 0.10 pts/rushing yard, 4 pts/passing TD, 6 points/rushing TD, -2 points/IntHere is what the data show, ranked by average points (average/SD):1) Rodgers: 27.1/4.42) Newton: 24.3/8.6 (tie)2) Brees: 24.3/9.8 (tie)4) Brady: 20.6/5.65) Manning: 18.5/4.66) TEBOW: 18.3/3.97) Ryan: 18.0/4.38) Stafford: 17.9/8.09) Romo: 17.3/5.010) Roethlisberger: 16.8/5.911) Rivers: 15.6/6.712) Sanchez: 14.7/6.113) Moore: 14.5/5.714) Dalton: 14.0/4.315) Flacco: 10.9/4.3So, Tebow is ranked #6, just behind Eli. But Tebow has the smallest standard deviation of any of the QBs -- he clearly is the most consistent. And at a high, but not highest, level. Interestingly, the two QBs with the greatest standard deviation were Brees (by far) and Stafford. Of course, Brees performs at such a high level that even his bad games are OK.

Nice work sir. Thanks for the nice contribution.

I want to thank Lord Jesus Christ above.

I see you have started exporting your material to the FFA.

 

[DoubleG]

I want to thank Lord Jesus Christ above.

I see you have started exporting your material to the FFA.

Hopefully this non-funny, unoriginal and completely mundane schtick stays there.

 

[Max Power]

I hate to bump ANOTHER Tebow thread, but serious question to his supporters... Are you happy with Tebow as the future of the Broncos? Not just 2012, but the next 5-10 years?

 

[Da Guru]

I think Tebow is a good person, but the guy is not an NFL QB..and will never be a NFL QB. Just can`t make the throws needed.

 

[SacramentoBob]

It was a good run.

 

[grateful zed]

I hate to bump ANOTHER Tebow thread, but serious question to his supporters... Are you happy with Tebow as the future of the Broncos? Not just 2012, but the next 5-10 years?

his future with the broncos will be limited.

 

[TimTebow]

It was a good run.

Ain't over yet.