A Question For Those About To Draft 2nd, 3rd or 4th (1 Viewer)

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Here's how I've got it at the eleventh hour...

1. LT

2. Brady

3. Moss

4. ADP

5. SJAX

6. Westy

This is in a non-PPR 4pt passing TD 12 teamer.

The argument goes like this:

The probability of ADP and SJAX to underperform their ADPs is so much closer to a coin flip than that of Brady or Moss that you HAVE TO take Brady or Moss ahead of them strictly from a risk management perspective. Conversely, Westy does not have a chance to over-perform his ADP and therefore represents less value than any of the top 5 above.

To put it another way, LT, Brady, Moss and Westy are far safer bets for domination than ADP or SJAX, but ADP and SJAX have a decent chance to outperform Westbrook.

Commence firing....(I'm about to go "all in" with Brady or Moss at pick 4 if they're still there; talk me down from the ledge).

 

[David Yudkin]

How have record breaking players done at any position the year after? Are Brady and Moss made of teflon and not expected to come back to earth like all the others of record breakers before them?

 

[rolliehouliranson]

Yesterday in my 8 team redraft, a guy won the opportunity to pick his spot on the draft board, chose the #1 spot, and promptly chose Tom Brady.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

How have record breaking players done at any position the year after? Are Brady and Moss made of teflon and not expected to come back to earth like all the others of record breakers before them?

I expect them to come back to earth with 38-40 TDs and 14-17 TDs respectively.

 

[Judge Smails]

How have record breaking players done at any position the year after? Are Brady and Moss made of teflon and not expected to come back to earth like all the others of record breakers before them?

I expect them to come back to earth with 38-40 TDs and 14-17 TDs respectively.

I think this is about right, maybe even a bit lower with Brady. I just don't like the looks of teams taking Brady early in the first round. Mocks show teams reaching at RB. They get a 2nd tier RB in round 2, and potentially a 2nd tier WR in round 3. If you like Brady, MJD and Plax as your first 3 - go for it. I went Westbrook, Braylon Edwards, Brandon Marshall then Big Ben from the 3 spot in my 12 teamer. Even with 6 points for all TD's, I liked that start more than anything I dreamt up starting with Brady or Moss. But that's just me.

 

[David Yudkin]

How have record breaking players done at any position the year after? Are Brady and Moss made of teflon and not expected to come back to earth like all the others of record breakers before them?

I expect them to come back to earth with 38-40 TDs and 14-17 TDs respectively.

Over his last 9 games (post season included), Brady averaged 276 passing yards, 2 TD, and 0.8 INT per game. That would project to 4416-32-13 over a 16-game season.In that same timeframe, Moss averaged 4.3 receptions, 59.4 yards, and 0.9 TD per game. That would project out to 69-950-14 over a full season.Only 1 QB has had back-to-back 35 TD seasons and only one WR has had back-to-back seasons with 15 TD. It should be interesting to see what happens with Brady and Moss this year .. .

 

[Kub]

While I agree with most of the posts here about the liklihood that Brady/Moss regress to mere mortals, I will say that QBs are going awfully early this year. If you are an owner that wants to have a clear cut #1 QB, I would much rather select Brady between 1.02 - 1.04 than take Manning or Romo in the late 1st-early 2nd, Brees in the early-to-mid 2nd, or Palmer/Roethlisberger in the late 2nd-early 3rd, which is where I have seen them going.

The problem with taking Brady in the early first is I don't like what you wind up with at RB. There are so many RBBC situations this year that you aren't guaranteed to get a guy that will carry the ball 20+ times a game in the late second and early third. You can roll the dice at the RB2 slot, but I prefer to have at least one solid RB in the fold when starting a fantasy team. You can find servicable starting QBs later in the draft, the same cannot be said for RBs.

In the end, it is your team and you should do what you think is right, not what "experts" tell you to do. You are the one coughing up the league fees, not anyone else. All I can suggest is run a couple of mock drafts and see what kind of team you wind up with before making that final decision.

 

[switz]

How have record breaking players done at any position the year after? Are Brady and Moss made of teflon and not expected to come back to earth like all the others of record breakers before them?

I expect them to come back to earth with 38-40 TDs and 14-17 TDs respectively.

Over his last 9 games (post season included), Brady averaged 276 passing yards, 2 TD, and 0.8 INT per game. That would project to 4416-32-13 over a 16-game season.In that same timeframe, Moss averaged 4.3 receptions, 59.4 yards, and 0.9 TD per game. That would project out to 69-950-14 over a full season.Only 1 QB has had back-to-back 35 TD seasons and only one WR has had back-to-back seasons with 15 TD. It should be interesting to see what happens with Brady and Moss this year .. .

I'll take the under on 35 TDs from Brady. I think he's the prime BUST candidate from the first round. I don't think he's a bad QB, just not enough heads and shoulders above Manning, Romo, Brees, Roeth to be worth a first round pick.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

How have record breaking players done at any position the year after? Are Brady and Moss made of teflon and not expected to come back to earth like all the others of record breakers before them?

I expect them to come back to earth with 38-40 TDs and 14-17 TDs respectively.

I think this is about right, maybe even a bit lower with Brady. I just don't like the looks of teams taking Brady early in the first round. Mocks show teams reaching at RB. They get a 2nd tier RB in round 2, and potentially a 2nd tier WR in round 3. If you like Brady, MJD and Plax as your first 3 - go for it. I went Westbrook, Braylon Edwards, Brandon Marshall then Big Ben from the 3 spot in my 12 teamer. Even with 6 points for all TD's, I liked that start more than anything I dreamt up starting with Brady or Moss. But that's just me.

I hear you. You could have just as easily gone Brady, Edwards, Jamal Lewis or Brandon Jacobs, Br Marshall or Calvin Johnson or Santonio Holmes, with your first 4 picks, based on FBG's latest spreadsheet ADPs. Who did you get as RB2? I expect Romo, Brees, and Manning will be gone before my second pick 2.09 so that plays into my logic. I'm looking for Colston or better to be available at 2.09, with a small chance that either Portis or LJ will fall that far (fresh fish in the league).So you've got Westy, Edwards, Marshall, Ben and your RB2 (presumeably your RB2 is FatDale or Selvin Young) whereas I've got Brady and (a) Edwards/Colston/AndreJohnson, Jacobs, TJones/McFadden, and Cotchery/Jennings/Bowe; or(b) MJD/Jamal/Grant, Jacobs, Marshall/CJ/SHolmes, and Cotchery/Jennings/BoweIn 08app_N1, with my league's scoring systems...Westy, Edwards, Marshall, Ben, Fatdale is 256 points of valueBrady, Edwards, Jacobs, McFadden, Cotchery is 263 points of valueBrady, MJD, Jacobs, Marshall, Cotchery is 290 points of valueThere is no "right" answer, but I've come to the conclusion, counterintuitively, that Brady at 1.02 makes sense if ADP and SJAX can't be counted on.BTW, I think Westy is very solid this year, the Iggles are my NFC pick for the superbowl.

 

[switz]

While I agree with most of the posts here about the liklihood that Brady/Moss regress to mere mortals, I will say that QBs are going awfully early this year. If you are an owner that wants to have a clear cut #1 QB, I would much rather select Brady between 1.02 - 1.04 than take Manning or Romo in the late 1st-early 2nd, Brees in the early-to-mid 2nd, or Palmer/Roethlisberger in the late 2nd-early 3rd, which is where I have seen them going.

I think the team that takes Roth in the 3rd will be significantly better than the team that takes Brady in the 1st.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

While I agree with most of the posts here about the liklihood that Brady/Moss regress to mere mortals, I will say that QBs are going awfully early this year. If you are an owner that wants to have a clear cut #1 QB, I would much rather select Brady between 1.02 - 1.04 than take Manning or Romo in the late 1st-early 2nd, Brees in the early-to-mid 2nd, or Palmer/Roethlisberger in the late 2nd-early 3rd, which is where I have seen them going.

I think the team that takes Roth in the 3rd will be significantly better than the team that takes Brady in the 1st.

Ben threw too much last year, Holmes is over-pimped on this board, Hines is a year older, the line is in disarray, the team is for sale, the Browns are the new powerhouse of the division, FWP is back, Mendenhall was added, do I need to go on? Not getting the Ben love this year.

 

[joffer]

While I agree with most of the posts here about the liklihood that Brady/Moss regress to mere mortals, I will say that QBs are going awfully early this year. If you are an owner that wants to have a clear cut #1 QB, I would much rather select Brady between 1.02 - 1.04 than take Manning or Romo in the late 1st-early 2nd, Brees in the early-to-mid 2nd, or Palmer/Roethlisberger in the late 2nd-early 3rd, which is where I have seen them going.

I think the team that takes Roth in the 3rd will be significantly better than the team that takes Brady in the 1st.

Ben threw too much last year, Holmes is over-pimped on this board, Hines is a year older, the line is in disarray, the team is for sale, the Browns are the new powerhouse of the division, FWP is back, Mendenhall was added, do I need to go on? Not getting the Ben love this year.

Pitt had the 2nd fewest attempts in the league

 

[Kub]

While I agree with most of the posts here about the liklihood that Brady/Moss regress to mere mortals, I will say that QBs are going awfully early this year. If you are an owner that wants to have a clear cut #1 QB, I would much rather select Brady between 1.02 - 1.04 than take Manning or Romo in the late 1st-early 2nd, Brees in the early-to-mid 2nd, or Palmer/Roethlisberger in the late 2nd-early 3rd, which is where I have seen them going.

I think the team that takes Roth in the 3rd will be significantly better than the team that takes Brady in the 1st.

Personally, I think that the team that passes on drafting a QB early is better yet. In my experience, this is a great year to go QBBC. I found this an excellent year to go RB/WR/WR in the first 3 rounds.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

While I agree with most of the posts here about the liklihood that Brady/Moss regress to mere mortals, I will say that QBs are going awfully early this year. If you are an owner that wants to have a clear cut #1 QB, I would much rather select Brady between 1.02 - 1.04 than take Manning or Romo in the late 1st-early 2nd, Brees in the early-to-mid 2nd, or Palmer/Roethlisberger in the late 2nd-early 3rd, which is where I have seen them going.

I think the team that takes Roth in the 3rd will be significantly better than the team that takes Brady in the 1st.

Ben threw too much last year, Holmes is over-pimped on this board, Hines is a year older, the line is in disarray, the team is for sale, the Browns are the new powerhouse of the division, FWP is back, Mendenhall was added, do I need to go on? Not getting the Ben love this year.

Pitt had the 2nd fewest attempts in the league

To clarify, their ability to run was hampered by FWP's injury, forcing them to throw to Holmes and Washington, both of whom I maintain are hacks, and failing to sustain drives, resulting in the attempt statistics you mention.

 

[Kub]

Holmes is a hack? You wouldn't be by any chance a Michigan alum?

 

[kupcho1]

While I agree with most of the posts here about the liklihood that Brady/Moss regress to mere mortals, I will say that QBs are going awfully early this year. If you are an owner that wants to have a clear cut #1 QB, I would much rather select Brady between 1.02 - 1.04 than take Manning or Romo in the late 1st-early 2nd, Brees in the early-to-mid 2nd, or Palmer/Roethlisberger in the late 2nd-early 3rd, which is where I have seen them going.

I think the team that takes Roth in the 3rd will be significantly better than the team that takes Brady in the 1st.

Ben threw too much last year, Holmes is over-pimped on this board, Hines is a year older, the line is in disarray, the team is for sale, the Browns are the new powerhouse of the division, FWP is back, Mendenhall was added, do I need to go on? Not getting the Ben love this year.

Pitt had the 2nd fewest attempts in the league

To clarify, their ability to run was hampered by FWP's injury, forcing them to throw to Holmes and Washington, both of whom I maintain are hacks, and failing to sustain drives, resulting in the attempt statistics you mention.

 

[BigJim®]

You make some good points. I too have been thinking a lot about taking Moss at 1.4; it would be surprising if he doesn't remain the top scoring WR. I probably won't when it comes time to make the call. It looks a lot easier to take a solid WR1 in the 2nd/3rd, and maybe both rounds. Grabbing a solid RB1 in the late second looks trickier.

 

[Utter Chaos]

Here's how I've got it at the eleventh hour...1. LT2. Brady3. Moss4. ADP5. SJAX6. WestyThis is in a non-PPR 4pt passing TD 12 teamer.The argument goes like this:The probability of ADP and SJAX to underperform their ADPs is so much closer to a coin flip than that of Brady or Moss that you HAVE TO take Brady or Moss ahead of them strictly from a risk management perspective. Conversely, Westy does not have a chance to over-perform his ADP and therefore represents less value than any of the top 5 above. To put it another way, LT, Brady, Moss and Westy are far safer bets for domination than ADP or SJAX, but ADP and SJAX have a decent chance to outperform Westbrook.Commence firing....(I'm about to go "all in" with Brady or Moss at pick 4 if they're still there; talk me down from the ledge).

I had the 4th pick in a non-PPR 12 teamer today. I went with MBIII after LT, Westy, and ADP. I didn't pick a QB until round 10 where I went with Kurt Warner with J.T. O'Sullivan (16) as a backup. The surprise was Joseph Addai falling all the way to 11.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Here's how I've got it at the eleventh hour...1. LT2. Brady3. Moss4. ADP5. SJAX6. WestyThis is in a non-PPR 4pt passing TD 12 teamer.The argument goes like this:The probability of ADP and SJAX to underperform their ADPs is so much closer to a coin flip than that of Brady or Moss that you HAVE TO take Brady or Moss ahead of them strictly from a risk management perspective. Conversely, Westy does not have a chance to over-perform his ADP and therefore represents less value than any of the top 5 above. To put it another way, LT, Brady, Moss and Westy are far safer bets for domination than ADP or SJAX, but ADP and SJAX have a decent chance to outperform Westbrook.Commence firing....(I'm about to go "all in" with Brady or Moss at pick 4 if they're still there; talk me down from the ledge).

I had the 4th pick in a non-PPR 12 teamer today. I went with MBIII after LT, Westy, and ADP. I didn't pick a QB until round 10 where I went with Kurt Warner with J.T. O'Sullivan (16) as a backup. The surprise was Joseph Addai falling all the way to 11.

That is surprising. I have it 7. Addai8. BarberHere's a thought, the offense goes through LT, Brady/Moss, ADP, SJAX and Westbrook on their respective teams. In Indy and Dallas, the offense goes through the quarterback. And, btw, that's why I have Westy "so low"; I expect McNabb to have his best season in the last 5 years.