My big money league had to draft quite early this year due to scheduling conflicts, so I thought I'd post the draft to give everyone a little flavor of how a real draft went with my analysis from the 1 spot:
Round 1:
1) AP - No explanation needed
2) Foster
3) Jamaal Charles
4) Martin
5) Lynch (thought he went a tad early...before SPILLER?)
6) Spiller
7) Calvin
8) Rice
9) Alf
10) Trich
11) McCoy
12) SJax
Round 2:
1) Ridley
2) Forte
3) AJ Green
4) CJ2k
5) Jimmy Graham
6) Brees
7) B Marshall
8) D. Murray
9) Montee Ball (1st head scratcher of the day)
10) Dez
11) Gore
12) Lamar Miller (my pick and yeah I reached a bit but I am high on the kid)
Round 3:
1) Peyton Manning (after going RB/RB I was torn b/w Gronk and manning. Manning was the surer bet given gronk's health and the QB position, although deep this year, comes with a lot of question marks. Manning's situation seemed to me to be the most stable with the highest floor and equally high ceiling to brees and rodgers, so I took him over rodgers. So far I got AP, Miller, Manning. Quite happy, but slightly nervous about what WRs will be available at the 4/5 turn)
2) D. Wilson
3) Arodg
4) Julio Jones
5) Demaryius Thomas
6) McFadden (STEAL imo...I was really torn bw him and miller at 2.12. His inability to last a full 16 games was the deciding factor for me)
7) Bush
8) Roddy White (REALLY? white before fitzy? AJ? Interesting)
9) MJD (if that foot is healthy, could be the steal of the draft)
10) Sproles
11) Fitz
12) Cobb
Round 4:
1) Leveon Bell
2) Andre Johnson
3) VJax
4) Cam (awesome value imo but who are his wrs?)
5) Cruz
6) Lacy (a reach imo...packers don't run too much, unproven rookie who may split carries. If i'm gonna go that route i'd have gone G. Bernard or Hillman here)
7) Brady (awesome value but who are his wrs?)
8) Colston
9) Amendola (too early for non-ppr imo)
10) Welker
11) Wayne
12) Dwayne Bowe (for picking my 1st wr in the end of the 4th rd I was pretty happy to land Bowe. Very high on him in Andy Reid's system with Alex Smith this year. I think he will outperform ADP and be top 6-8 WR).
Round 5:
1) Gronk (I was made fun of for this bc he might start the season on PUP. But my reasoning was that he is elite when he plays and he WILL play this year. TE position is deep enough for me to draft an adequate replacement until he plays. If his health was known this would have been a steal and I still think it will prove to be one. Plus In this league you can flex a TE so it was important to me to land an elite one After 5 rounds: AP/Miller/P. Manning/Bowe/Gronk).
2) Matt Ryan
3) Ivory (Jets fan)
4) Kaep (who are his wrs?)
5) Gonzo
6) Wallace
7) A. Brown (not liking this one. Non PPR and he doesn't score TD's. Too early)
8) Mendenhall (yuck. Too much great talent at WR on the board to take an avg rb running behind a crappy o line this early imo)
9) Decker
10) Nicks (if he stays healthy this one was a STEAL)
11) Witten
12) Shorts
Round 6:
1) Bradshaw
2) Garcon (Was PRAYING he would make it to me at 6.12...Oh well, at least I will probably get Jordy to fall to me?)
3) Ryan Matthews (potential STEAL)
4) DJax
5) Steve Smith
6) Mike Williams (TB)
7) G. Bernard
8) Stafford (the only QB outside of manning that has some good continuity in his offense but nowhere near the track record. Lower floor, same or lower ceiling IMO. But If I missed on manning I would have targeted him).
9) Jordy (DAMN IT!...getting nervous at the selection for my WR2 now)
10) Hillman
11) T. Smith
12) James Jones (Well, I wanted a piece of the packers passing game. great 2012, contract year, jennings gone, nelson hurt...not thrilled with him as my WR2 but could be worse. Let's see...)
Round 7:
1) Tavon Austin (I struggled b/w him, TY Hilton, and Kenny Britt here. Austin might not score many td's and this is not a ppr league. He's also a rookie and rookie wr's tend to fall flat of expectations. Plus Britt is sounding all healed up and ready to explode again. In the end I fell for the potential of austin. Probably my first legit mistake of the draft IMO. After 7 rounds: AP/Miller/P. Manning/Bowe/Gronk/James Jones/T. Austin).
2) Jennings (He went where wrs go to die minus percy harvin)
3) V. Davis
4) Olsen (a reach imo. Once V. Davis is gone then you gotta wait until the 9th rd or later and gamble on cook/cameron type)
5) BGE (looks like a bargain to me.
6) TY Hilton (was PRAYING for him to fall to me in the 8th and probably should have considered him more in the 7th. This kid is about to burst onto the scene this year)
7) Rudolph (huge reach)
8) R. Wilson
9) M. Austin
10) RG3 (potential steal)
11) Daryl Richardson (potential steal)
12) Boldin
Round 8:
1) Luck
2) Romo
3) Britt
4) Seattle D (huh??)
5) D. Williams
6) Andre Brown (Wish he would have fell to me. I think that the giants RB situation will be much more RBBC this year than many think and brown will get all GL looks and he even seems to be involved in the passing game. In non-ppr there is an argument to be made for brown and wilson having equal value. I believe he was a good value here and david wilson was drafted too early).
7) SF D (double huh??...this is a league with some pretty experienced players and while I understand that defenses can make or break you with the scoring system we have it's still a reach to grab a defense any time before the 12th round imo).
8) Michael Floyd (another one I was hoping would fall to me.)
9) Alshon Jeffrey
10) Stevie Johnson
11) S. Rice
12) Shane Vereen (I needed an RB3 and RB4 desperately with the next 2 picks so I started with Vereen, who I think will have a big role this year in the pat's offense. When you see the dropoff after Vereen and Mark Ingram at RB you will understand why I had to go RB/RB here.)
After 8 rounds my team from the 1 spot looks like this:
Peyton Manning, AP/Miller/Vereen, Bowe, James Jones, T. Austin, Gronk.
Round 9:
1) Mark Ingram (see explanation above. I am very high on Ingram this year and I feel strongly that he will easily outperform his 9th round draft status and perform like a solid RB2 barring injury).
2) Lance Moore
3) Ben Tate
4) V. Ballard
5) Fred Jackson
6) Gates (I like this pick. I think Gaes is in for a bounce back year. I was hoping he would fall to me at 10.12 to back up my earlier gronk pick)
7) D. Moore (not even the WR1 on his own team at this point).
8) G. Tate (another one of my desired sleeper picks gone)
9) O. Daniels
10) E. Sanders (SOMEONE has to catch TDs in Pitt this year, right?....right? He and antonio brown were clearly on my do not draft list for non-ppr)
11) D. Thomas (my handcuff swiped from under me)
12) B. Pierce
Round 10:
1) Chris Givens (another sleeper pick of mine swiped!)
2) Percy "not playing in 2013" Harvin (mind you this is a re-draft league...maybe this owner has better info than me?)
3) Bilal Powell
4) E. Manning (great value here)
5) Bryce Brown (might not even be the #2 rb anymore)
6) Jonathan Franklin
7) J. Stewart
8) Denver D (oy vey)
9) J. Rodgers
10) Zac Stacey
11) Joe Flacco
12) Vincent Brown (I was stoked about this pick. I think Brown is going to do big things this year esp now with Alexander gone for the season)
Round 11:
1) Jermichael Finley (I had to start thinking about insuring my earlier gronk pick. Finley imo was the last man on the board that had elite potential and all reports are that he is having a terrific camp. good value in the 11th rd imo)
2) Brandon Myers
3) Josh Gordon (I thought about him but I'm hearing he is not having a good camp running lazy routes, not putting in extra work. Plus his suspension and off field issues are making him an unattractive option unless he fell to the last rounds)
4) R. Randle
5) Malcolm Floyd
6) Aaron Dobson (either a total reach here or a possible gem, only time will tell)
7) Mikel Leshoure
8) Chicago D
9) D. Hopkins
10) Vick (could end up being steal of the draft)
11) C. Patterson (who is throwing him the ball again?)
12) Martellus Bennet
After 11 rounds, my team:
Peyton Manning, AP/Miller/Vereen/Ingram, Bowe/James Jones/T. Austin/V. Brown, Gronk/Finley. So far so good, minus the T. Austin flub. we start 2 rb, 3 wr, 1 te, and 1 flex (rb/wr/te). So a potential lineup now is Peyton, AP/Miller, Bowe/James Jones/V. Brown or Austin, Gronk, and Vereen or Finley in flex. Not bad.
Round 12:
1) Houston D
2) Schaub
3) Pead
4) Forsett
5) Freeman
6) Cincy D (a lot of D's going off the board too early so now I am starting to worry that I need to pounce before I am left with scraps. I don't mind playing "rent-a-defense" all season if I have to but it's so much easier to lay that game with a good anchor defense to fall back on during weeks where the strategy doesn't work well.)
7) Cutler
8) M. Bush
9) STL D
10) Woodhead (nice pick here)
11) K. Hunter
12) Brian Hartline (Given my rather weak WR corps, I was ecstatic to land hartline at the end of round 12. I think he is in for a bigger year this year than last year. At least another 1000 yards and 5-7 tds)
Round 13:
1) Alex Smith (I'm pretty high on him this year under Andy Reid's system. Very competent backup to Peyton Manning imo. I was targeting him all along so I was happy to see this work out)
2) Blair Walsh (really? I was shocked by this...it's an 18 round draft! And the guy who made this pick is solid...has won titles before).
3) Dalton
4) Tannehill (looks like I sparked a mini backup qb run)
5) Josh Morgan
6) Zach Sudfeld
7) Gotskowski (?)
8) P. Thomas (another handcuff swiped from under me. But I'm fine with it. Not a big believer in handcuffing)
9) Shonn Greenw
10) NE D
11) Broyles (perfect example for why I don't believe in handcuffing. When you can get an upside guy on an explosive offense like broyles in the 13th round, screw handcuffing)
12) Redman
Round 14:
1) Bradford
2) Gerhart (yet another handcuff swiped from me. but honestly, if AP goes down, do you think gerhart will give me RB1 production on that team? AP is a freak of nature and blows through 8 man fronts like swiss cheese.)
3) Rivers
4) Helu
5) DHB
6) Big Ben
7) Matt Bryant
8) Palmer
9) Mccluster (could be great this year in reid's offense)
10) Ari D
11) Pitt D
12) Balt D (OK now I had to pounce on a D. Balt D imo was the last potentially elite D. A lot of questions about their revamped group this year but their pass rush should still be ferocious with suggs and dumerville and they still have a good secondary.)
Round 15:
1) Rod Streater (One of my coveted sleeper picks. I think he will wind up as the WR1 for the raiders and he and flynn seem to have terrific chemistry already).
2) Riley Cooper
3) B. LaFell
4) Lamicheal James
5) P. Dawson (any time a kicker is drafted before the last round is just plain stupidity imo)
6) Blackmon
7) Edelman (I wanted him and was hoping he'd fall to me).
8) K. Wright
9) Prater
10) J. Cook (another sleeper pick of mine)
11) GB D
12) Mia D
Round 16:
1) Jacoby Jones
2) TB D
3) Dal D
4) A. Roberts
5) M. Reece (When Mcfadden goes down will it be him or L. Murray?)
6) SD D
7) Moreno
8) F. Davis
9) T. Doss
10) J. Tucker
11) Keller
12) Fleener (another one of my coveted late round targets. Was glad to get him. If he or finley could step up to elite status this year I'd have no problem trading gronk away for a top tier WR).
Round 17:
1) Kenbrell Thompkins (swinging for the fences here in the last round before I have to take my kicker. All systems SEEM a go with this kid, although the odds stack up against him. We will see).
2) Turner
3) Kerley
4) R. Bullock
5) Sanu
6) EJ Manuel (SOLID pick here)
7) M. Wheaton
8) N. Washington (Solid)
9) Stephen Hill (another potential candidate for steal of the draft if sanchez gets his head out of his ####)
10) Hauschka
11) Hillis
12) Dunbar
Round 18:
I didn't record the last round, but I took my kicker, Josh Brown.
All in all, I was pretty happy with the way this draft went. The Tavon Austin pick will probably hurt me and my WRs are a bit lackluster. But I think I drafted enough depth and potential there that SOMEONE should step up and help over the course of the season.
FWIW, footballguys "ratemyteam" tool is very high on this squad (although I take that with a grain of salt). It had my team rated the highest out of all 12 teams that drafted and gave my team the highest chance of making the playoffs out of all 12. So according to FBG, this was a solid draft for you guys to work off of.
I hope this helps other people who are drafting from the 1 spot in a 12 team non ppr league.
Here is the FBG rate my team analysis:
QB: Peyton Manning, Alex Smith
RB: Adrian Peterson, Lamar Miller, Shane Vereen, Mark Ingram
WR: Dwayne Bowe, James Jones, Vincent Brown, Tavon Austin, Brian Hartline, Rod Streater, Kenbrell Thompkins
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Jermichael Finley, Coby Fleener
PK: Josh Brown
TD: Baltimore Ravens
Overview:
We think you're looking good at quarterback and running back, and tight end is a plus for this team as well. Your squad is therefore easy for us to like despite a bit of weakness at the receiver position. But as weaknesses go, this is one is survivable. It's usually relatively easy to find fill-in guys on a weekly basis until a better player emerges during the season. As long as you stay on top of things inseason, you should be the league favorite or very close to it.
Players we particularly like on this team include Jermichael Finley, Alex Smith, Vincent Brown, Lamar Miller, Brian Hartline, Rod Streater, and the Ravens defense. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 4 of 2012:
Brian Hartline vs. ARI: 253 receiving yards, 1 TD
James Jones vs. NO: 56 receiving yards, 2 TD
Peyton Manning vs. OAK: 338 passing yards, 3 TD
Dwayne Bowe vs. SD: 108 receiving yards, 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski vs. BUF: 104 receiving yards, 1 TD
QB Summary:
You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Peyton Manning should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #3 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 1.4 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.
Alex Smith, who we have rated as the #15 QB, is a fine backup.
Incidentally, Smith has what we project as a good matchup (BUF) during Manning's bye.
RB Summary:
Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 3.3 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Adrian Peterson ranked first and Lamar Miller ranked 15th.
Your bench also looks good. Shane Vereen should serve as a very solid third running back; he's a likely flex starter. Mark Ingram is also a very nice RB4.
A quick note about the same-team Vereen/Rob Gronkowski duo you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair. See this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Shane Vereen is ranked #23 by some of our writers, which would make him a great third running back and even a legitimate RB2. Ryan Hester reasons, "Vereen is becoming a bit of a preseason darling as his fantasy stock is gaining momentum due to the departure of Danny Woodhead and the dismissal of Aaron Hernandez. While New England will almost certainly be more run-heavy this season, they'll still need someone to catch passes when they do throw. The Patriots have always valued versatile players who can line up all over the field, and Vereen is just that."
WR Summary:
We like Vincent Brown as a third WR, but we consider your starting receivers, as a group, to be a little below par. Dwayne Bowe is our 12th ranked WR, James Jones is #25, and we have Brown 30th.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. We love Tavon Austin as a fourth receiver. Likewise, Brian Hartline should be excellent at WR5. We love Rod Streater as a sixth receiver.
Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced Kenbrell Thompkins is the right player for the job. Check the end of the report for some alternative suggestions.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have James Jones as high as #19, which would make him a fine second receiver. Mark Wimer's take: "Aaron Rodgers has a great problem (for an NFL quarterback) - a plethora of quality wide receivers. However, news on August 6 that Jordy Nelson had knee surgery on Monday, August 5 and that Nelson is out 4-6 weeks means that I've bumped Randall Cobb and James Jones up my rankings quite a bit - they will get a lot of reps with Rodgers during training camp and Nelson may have trouble getting back into the starting lineup even when he is healthy again. "
TE Summary:
As you are well aware, Rob Gronkowski is an elite tight end. We have him ranked second overall at the position. He's about 2.6 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. We also think Jermichael Finley is a starting quality tight end in this league. He's a luxury.
Kicker Summary:
Josh Brown, our eighth ranked kicker, won't win the league for you, but he'll do.
Defense Summary:
The Ravens are our #3 ranked defense, so you're in good shape here.
Round 1:
1) AP - No explanation needed
2) Foster
3) Jamaal Charles
4) Martin
5) Lynch (thought he went a tad early...before SPILLER?)
6) Spiller
7) Calvin
8) Rice
9) Alf
10) Trich
11) McCoy
12) SJax
Round 2:
1) Ridley
2) Forte
3) AJ Green
4) CJ2k
5) Jimmy Graham
6) Brees
7) B Marshall
8) D. Murray
9) Montee Ball (1st head scratcher of the day)
10) Dez
11) Gore
12) Lamar Miller (my pick and yeah I reached a bit but I am high on the kid)
Round 3:
1) Peyton Manning (after going RB/RB I was torn b/w Gronk and manning. Manning was the surer bet given gronk's health and the QB position, although deep this year, comes with a lot of question marks. Manning's situation seemed to me to be the most stable with the highest floor and equally high ceiling to brees and rodgers, so I took him over rodgers. So far I got AP, Miller, Manning. Quite happy, but slightly nervous about what WRs will be available at the 4/5 turn)
2) D. Wilson
3) Arodg
4) Julio Jones
5) Demaryius Thomas
6) McFadden (STEAL imo...I was really torn bw him and miller at 2.12. His inability to last a full 16 games was the deciding factor for me)
7) Bush
8) Roddy White (REALLY? white before fitzy? AJ? Interesting)
9) MJD (if that foot is healthy, could be the steal of the draft)
10) Sproles
11) Fitz
12) Cobb
Round 4:
1) Leveon Bell
2) Andre Johnson
3) VJax
4) Cam (awesome value imo but who are his wrs?)
5) Cruz
6) Lacy (a reach imo...packers don't run too much, unproven rookie who may split carries. If i'm gonna go that route i'd have gone G. Bernard or Hillman here)
7) Brady (awesome value but who are his wrs?)
8) Colston
9) Amendola (too early for non-ppr imo)
10) Welker
11) Wayne
12) Dwayne Bowe (for picking my 1st wr in the end of the 4th rd I was pretty happy to land Bowe. Very high on him in Andy Reid's system with Alex Smith this year. I think he will outperform ADP and be top 6-8 WR).
Round 5:
1) Gronk (I was made fun of for this bc he might start the season on PUP. But my reasoning was that he is elite when he plays and he WILL play this year. TE position is deep enough for me to draft an adequate replacement until he plays. If his health was known this would have been a steal and I still think it will prove to be one. Plus In this league you can flex a TE so it was important to me to land an elite one After 5 rounds: AP/Miller/P. Manning/Bowe/Gronk).
2) Matt Ryan
3) Ivory (Jets fan)
4) Kaep (who are his wrs?)
5) Gonzo
6) Wallace
7) A. Brown (not liking this one. Non PPR and he doesn't score TD's. Too early)
8) Mendenhall (yuck. Too much great talent at WR on the board to take an avg rb running behind a crappy o line this early imo)
9) Decker
10) Nicks (if he stays healthy this one was a STEAL)
11) Witten
12) Shorts
Round 6:
1) Bradshaw
2) Garcon (Was PRAYING he would make it to me at 6.12...Oh well, at least I will probably get Jordy to fall to me?)
3) Ryan Matthews (potential STEAL)
4) DJax
5) Steve Smith
6) Mike Williams (TB)
7) G. Bernard
8) Stafford (the only QB outside of manning that has some good continuity in his offense but nowhere near the track record. Lower floor, same or lower ceiling IMO. But If I missed on manning I would have targeted him).
9) Jordy (DAMN IT!...getting nervous at the selection for my WR2 now)
10) Hillman
11) T. Smith
12) James Jones (Well, I wanted a piece of the packers passing game. great 2012, contract year, jennings gone, nelson hurt...not thrilled with him as my WR2 but could be worse. Let's see...)
Round 7:
1) Tavon Austin (I struggled b/w him, TY Hilton, and Kenny Britt here. Austin might not score many td's and this is not a ppr league. He's also a rookie and rookie wr's tend to fall flat of expectations. Plus Britt is sounding all healed up and ready to explode again. In the end I fell for the potential of austin. Probably my first legit mistake of the draft IMO. After 7 rounds: AP/Miller/P. Manning/Bowe/Gronk/James Jones/T. Austin).
2) Jennings (He went where wrs go to die minus percy harvin)
3) V. Davis
4) Olsen (a reach imo. Once V. Davis is gone then you gotta wait until the 9th rd or later and gamble on cook/cameron type)
5) BGE (looks like a bargain to me.
6) TY Hilton (was PRAYING for him to fall to me in the 8th and probably should have considered him more in the 7th. This kid is about to burst onto the scene this year)
7) Rudolph (huge reach)
8) R. Wilson
9) M. Austin
10) RG3 (potential steal)
11) Daryl Richardson (potential steal)
12) Boldin
Round 8:
1) Luck
2) Romo
3) Britt
4) Seattle D (huh??)
5) D. Williams
6) Andre Brown (Wish he would have fell to me. I think that the giants RB situation will be much more RBBC this year than many think and brown will get all GL looks and he even seems to be involved in the passing game. In non-ppr there is an argument to be made for brown and wilson having equal value. I believe he was a good value here and david wilson was drafted too early).
7) SF D (double huh??...this is a league with some pretty experienced players and while I understand that defenses can make or break you with the scoring system we have it's still a reach to grab a defense any time before the 12th round imo).
8) Michael Floyd (another one I was hoping would fall to me.)
9) Alshon Jeffrey
10) Stevie Johnson
11) S. Rice
12) Shane Vereen (I needed an RB3 and RB4 desperately with the next 2 picks so I started with Vereen, who I think will have a big role this year in the pat's offense. When you see the dropoff after Vereen and Mark Ingram at RB you will understand why I had to go RB/RB here.)
After 8 rounds my team from the 1 spot looks like this:
Peyton Manning, AP/Miller/Vereen, Bowe, James Jones, T. Austin, Gronk.
Round 9:
1) Mark Ingram (see explanation above. I am very high on Ingram this year and I feel strongly that he will easily outperform his 9th round draft status and perform like a solid RB2 barring injury).
2) Lance Moore
3) Ben Tate
4) V. Ballard
5) Fred Jackson
6) Gates (I like this pick. I think Gaes is in for a bounce back year. I was hoping he would fall to me at 10.12 to back up my earlier gronk pick)
7) D. Moore (not even the WR1 on his own team at this point).
8) G. Tate (another one of my desired sleeper picks gone)
9) O. Daniels
10) E. Sanders (SOMEONE has to catch TDs in Pitt this year, right?....right? He and antonio brown were clearly on my do not draft list for non-ppr)
11) D. Thomas (my handcuff swiped from under me)
12) B. Pierce
Round 10:
1) Chris Givens (another sleeper pick of mine swiped!)
2) Percy "not playing in 2013" Harvin (mind you this is a re-draft league...maybe this owner has better info than me?)
3) Bilal Powell
4) E. Manning (great value here)
5) Bryce Brown (might not even be the #2 rb anymore)
6) Jonathan Franklin
7) J. Stewart
8) Denver D (oy vey)
9) J. Rodgers
10) Zac Stacey
11) Joe Flacco
12) Vincent Brown (I was stoked about this pick. I think Brown is going to do big things this year esp now with Alexander gone for the season)
Round 11:
1) Jermichael Finley (I had to start thinking about insuring my earlier gronk pick. Finley imo was the last man on the board that had elite potential and all reports are that he is having a terrific camp. good value in the 11th rd imo)
2) Brandon Myers
3) Josh Gordon (I thought about him but I'm hearing he is not having a good camp running lazy routes, not putting in extra work. Plus his suspension and off field issues are making him an unattractive option unless he fell to the last rounds)
4) R. Randle
5) Malcolm Floyd
6) Aaron Dobson (either a total reach here or a possible gem, only time will tell)
7) Mikel Leshoure
8) Chicago D
9) D. Hopkins
10) Vick (could end up being steal of the draft)
11) C. Patterson (who is throwing him the ball again?)
12) Martellus Bennet
After 11 rounds, my team:
Peyton Manning, AP/Miller/Vereen/Ingram, Bowe/James Jones/T. Austin/V. Brown, Gronk/Finley. So far so good, minus the T. Austin flub. we start 2 rb, 3 wr, 1 te, and 1 flex (rb/wr/te). So a potential lineup now is Peyton, AP/Miller, Bowe/James Jones/V. Brown or Austin, Gronk, and Vereen or Finley in flex. Not bad.
Round 12:
1) Houston D
2) Schaub
3) Pead
4) Forsett
5) Freeman
6) Cincy D (a lot of D's going off the board too early so now I am starting to worry that I need to pounce before I am left with scraps. I don't mind playing "rent-a-defense" all season if I have to but it's so much easier to lay that game with a good anchor defense to fall back on during weeks where the strategy doesn't work well.)
7) Cutler
8) M. Bush
9) STL D
10) Woodhead (nice pick here)
11) K. Hunter
12) Brian Hartline (Given my rather weak WR corps, I was ecstatic to land hartline at the end of round 12. I think he is in for a bigger year this year than last year. At least another 1000 yards and 5-7 tds)
Round 13:
1) Alex Smith (I'm pretty high on him this year under Andy Reid's system. Very competent backup to Peyton Manning imo. I was targeting him all along so I was happy to see this work out)
2) Blair Walsh (really? I was shocked by this...it's an 18 round draft! And the guy who made this pick is solid...has won titles before).
3) Dalton
4) Tannehill (looks like I sparked a mini backup qb run)
5) Josh Morgan
6) Zach Sudfeld
7) Gotskowski (?)
8) P. Thomas (another handcuff swiped from under me. But I'm fine with it. Not a big believer in handcuffing)
9) Shonn Greenw
10) NE D
11) Broyles (perfect example for why I don't believe in handcuffing. When you can get an upside guy on an explosive offense like broyles in the 13th round, screw handcuffing)
12) Redman
Round 14:
1) Bradford
2) Gerhart (yet another handcuff swiped from me. but honestly, if AP goes down, do you think gerhart will give me RB1 production on that team? AP is a freak of nature and blows through 8 man fronts like swiss cheese.)
3) Rivers
4) Helu
5) DHB
6) Big Ben
7) Matt Bryant
8) Palmer
9) Mccluster (could be great this year in reid's offense)
10) Ari D
11) Pitt D
12) Balt D (OK now I had to pounce on a D. Balt D imo was the last potentially elite D. A lot of questions about their revamped group this year but their pass rush should still be ferocious with suggs and dumerville and they still have a good secondary.)
Round 15:
1) Rod Streater (One of my coveted sleeper picks. I think he will wind up as the WR1 for the raiders and he and flynn seem to have terrific chemistry already).
2) Riley Cooper
3) B. LaFell
4) Lamicheal James
5) P. Dawson (any time a kicker is drafted before the last round is just plain stupidity imo)
6) Blackmon
7) Edelman (I wanted him and was hoping he'd fall to me).
8) K. Wright
9) Prater
10) J. Cook (another sleeper pick of mine)
11) GB D
12) Mia D
Round 16:
1) Jacoby Jones
2) TB D
3) Dal D
4) A. Roberts
5) M. Reece (When Mcfadden goes down will it be him or L. Murray?)
6) SD D
7) Moreno
8) F. Davis
9) T. Doss
10) J. Tucker
11) Keller
12) Fleener (another one of my coveted late round targets. Was glad to get him. If he or finley could step up to elite status this year I'd have no problem trading gronk away for a top tier WR).
Round 17:
1) Kenbrell Thompkins (swinging for the fences here in the last round before I have to take my kicker. All systems SEEM a go with this kid, although the odds stack up against him. We will see).
2) Turner
3) Kerley
4) R. Bullock
5) Sanu
6) EJ Manuel (SOLID pick here)
7) M. Wheaton
8) N. Washington (Solid)
9) Stephen Hill (another potential candidate for steal of the draft if sanchez gets his head out of his ####)
10) Hauschka
11) Hillis
12) Dunbar
Round 18:
I didn't record the last round, but I took my kicker, Josh Brown.
All in all, I was pretty happy with the way this draft went. The Tavon Austin pick will probably hurt me and my WRs are a bit lackluster. But I think I drafted enough depth and potential there that SOMEONE should step up and help over the course of the season.
FWIW, footballguys "ratemyteam" tool is very high on this squad (although I take that with a grain of salt). It had my team rated the highest out of all 12 teams that drafted and gave my team the highest chance of making the playoffs out of all 12. So according to FBG, this was a solid draft for you guys to work off of.
I hope this helps other people who are drafting from the 1 spot in a 12 team non ppr league.
Here is the FBG rate my team analysis:
QB: Peyton Manning, Alex Smith
RB: Adrian Peterson, Lamar Miller, Shane Vereen, Mark Ingram
WR: Dwayne Bowe, James Jones, Vincent Brown, Tavon Austin, Brian Hartline, Rod Streater, Kenbrell Thompkins
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Jermichael Finley, Coby Fleener
PK: Josh Brown
TD: Baltimore Ravens
Overview:
We think you're looking good at quarterback and running back, and tight end is a plus for this team as well. Your squad is therefore easy for us to like despite a bit of weakness at the receiver position. But as weaknesses go, this is one is survivable. It's usually relatively easy to find fill-in guys on a weekly basis until a better player emerges during the season. As long as you stay on top of things inseason, you should be the league favorite or very close to it.
Players we particularly like on this team include Jermichael Finley, Alex Smith, Vincent Brown, Lamar Miller, Brian Hartline, Rod Streater, and the Ravens defense. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:
- With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With good inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With average inseason management, we think you have a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 4 of 2012:
Brian Hartline vs. ARI: 253 receiving yards, 1 TD
James Jones vs. NO: 56 receiving yards, 2 TD
Peyton Manning vs. OAK: 338 passing yards, 3 TD
Dwayne Bowe vs. SD: 108 receiving yards, 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski vs. BUF: 104 receiving yards, 1 TD
QB Summary:
You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Peyton Manning should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #3 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 1.4 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.
Alex Smith, who we have rated as the #15 QB, is a fine backup.
Incidentally, Smith has what we project as a good matchup (BUF) during Manning's bye.
RB Summary:
Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 3.3 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Adrian Peterson ranked first and Lamar Miller ranked 15th.
Your bench also looks good. Shane Vereen should serve as a very solid third running back; he's a likely flex starter. Mark Ingram is also a very nice RB4.
A quick note about the same-team Vereen/Rob Gronkowski duo you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair. See this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Shane Vereen is ranked #23 by some of our writers, which would make him a great third running back and even a legitimate RB2. Ryan Hester reasons, "Vereen is becoming a bit of a preseason darling as his fantasy stock is gaining momentum due to the departure of Danny Woodhead and the dismissal of Aaron Hernandez. While New England will almost certainly be more run-heavy this season, they'll still need someone to catch passes when they do throw. The Patriots have always valued versatile players who can line up all over the field, and Vereen is just that."
WR Summary:
We like Vincent Brown as a third WR, but we consider your starting receivers, as a group, to be a little below par. Dwayne Bowe is our 12th ranked WR, James Jones is #25, and we have Brown 30th.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. We love Tavon Austin as a fourth receiver. Likewise, Brian Hartline should be excellent at WR5. We love Rod Streater as a sixth receiver.
Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced Kenbrell Thompkins is the right player for the job. Check the end of the report for some alternative suggestions.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have James Jones as high as #19, which would make him a fine second receiver. Mark Wimer's take: "Aaron Rodgers has a great problem (for an NFL quarterback) - a plethora of quality wide receivers. However, news on August 6 that Jordy Nelson had knee surgery on Monday, August 5 and that Nelson is out 4-6 weeks means that I've bumped Randall Cobb and James Jones up my rankings quite a bit - they will get a lot of reps with Rodgers during training camp and Nelson may have trouble getting back into the starting lineup even when he is healthy again. "
TE Summary:
As you are well aware, Rob Gronkowski is an elite tight end. We have him ranked second overall at the position. He's about 2.6 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. We also think Jermichael Finley is a starting quality tight end in this league. He's a luxury.
Kicker Summary:
Josh Brown, our eighth ranked kicker, won't win the league for you, but he'll do.
Defense Summary:
The Ravens are our #3 ranked defense, so you're in good shape here.
