A Strategic Approach to Blind Bid Waivers (1 Viewer)

[madd futher]

I posted this article earlier in the week on another obard where I frequently post. I thought that the sharks on this board might have some opinions to contribute on this subject too.

You will find very few, if any, good articles on Blind Waiver bidding strategy. I have played enough fantasy seasons using blind waiver bidding to develop a strategy that works for me. Some of my pick-ups will turn out average or below, but I put a lot of effort into identifying the potential diamonds in the rough and picking up VALUE, even at the expense of positional balance. For example, in my 17 roster spot re-draft league, I picked up Cam Newton as my 3rd QB. He already has the look of a leader and he can obviously make plays with both his arm and his legs.

Before I get to the strategy, I must set some assumptions and parameters for how to make it work:

1. You have to have a reasonable idea of how many players you would normally pick up per season in a non-bidding waiver system (you can exclude defenses and kickers from this number if your blind bid waiver system is immediately followed by open waiver free agent pick-ups until waivers are re-locked for the next weekend’s games). I am a VERY active weekly roster manager and have had a long history of playing in leagues with transaction limits. I am very uncomfortable playing in leagues that allow less than 25 waiver pick-ups per season. Allowing 5 pick-ups for defense and kicker changes, 20 position player pick-ups per season is a tight number that I can live with. Given a season blind bidding budget of $100, this means that my average player acquisition cost must average approx $6 per week in each league - this assumes that there are 16 weeks of waiver bidding.

2. Early season bids will be higher than mid season bids, which will be higher than late season bids. This is for at least three reasons for this:

A) It is just human nature. Just like in real life, owners overspend until they realize that they are running out of money. At that point, they become much more restrained in their personal spending. Fantasy owners are no different.

B ) Every year there are a few phenomenal early break-outs. Nobody wants to miss out on “that guy’. Even some fantasy experts I respect highly are vulnerable to an “all-in” mentality, and are not afraid to spent 50% of their annual budget or more on a that “next stud” player. Last year, a very good fantasy player in my league spent $99 of his $100 budget on Brandon Jackson after the week 1 season ending injury to Ryan Grant. I have a rule NEVER to spend more than 25% of my budget on any one player, and I do so knowing that I had better be right, because that pick-up will severely impact the rest of my season. It is far better to let the other owner overspend, even if it means missing out on the potential stud. The risk is just too great and there will be other opportunities later.

C. The guy you pick up early has the potential to help your team for the whole season, so early season pick-ups are logically worth more than late season ones.

2. Realize that most owners will only bid for immediate need or additional depth. While few bid primarily for value, perceived value WILL BE the primary consideration in how high they will bid on a player, and therefore will determine how much you will have to bid to win that player. Some host sites allow you as owner to see all bids, whether successful or not. Others only allow you to see the winning bids. Either way, by logging all of the bids, after a few weeks, you can get an idea of how the other owner thinks, if he is likely to bid on a certain player and get a good clue as to how much.

3. This is most important. You don’t have to be a gemologist to tell the difference between pyrite and gold, gravel or a diamond in the rough. In fantasy football, especially against top notch competition, it helps to be a “gemologist” when it comes to discerning fantasy value. In order to get decent value for your bids, you have to recognize that diamond before it becomes apparent to the other owners in your league. At the point that even a few other owners become aware of the break-out, the price goes WAY UP. Consistently getting the hidden value waiver pick-ups requires early and continuous research, and the ability to pull the trigger earlier than your leaguemates.

With that background, here is the strategy that I have found to be optimum for me: I front end load the 1st 4 weeks and budget as follows:

Assuming my 20 transaction budget based on 16 weeks of waivers, my average amount per week (per league) for weeks 1 through 4 can be about $14. Note that I went behind one week by picking up Newton!

For weeks 5 through 13 I allow myself only $4 per week per league.

For the play-off weeks 14-16, I’ll only need $2 per week.

I’ll pick up some position players and almost all needed defenses and kickers off open waivers immediately after bids are opened (trying to beat the other owners to the punch).

My cardinal rule is to NEVER allow myself to get more than one week behind my budget!

Here are this week's winning bids from my four PPR leagues - I play in re-draft, keeper, deep keep 10 keeper and dynasty leagues usually 12 tam leagues with roster sizes varying from 16 to 22 (all bids were adjusted to reflect $100 annual waiver budgets and my winning bids are in bold). I included comments on several bids:

Sproles - $51 (nice player, but way too much)

Caddy - $7/$20/$30 (range represents winning bids in 3 leagues - I couldn’t criticize the $20 bid here)

McCluster - $8 (I can use him as either a flex RB or WR in this yahoo league roster 16 team, preserving a roster spot.)

E Graham - $2 to $4

Devery Henderson - $6/$16/28/$52 (I got him for $6; why would you spend over half your annual budget for this guy?)

Branch - $5.50/$37 ( I got him for the right price - Why would you spend 37% of your budget on Branch?)

Gaffney - $17

M Clayton - $15

Jac Jones - $10 (Not bad, this is a return yardage league)

Simpson, D Nelson, Arrington, A Brown, Lafell ($3-$4)Dickson - $25 (???)

Chandler - $1/$16

F Davis - $5

Pitta $3

Newton - he was only on the wire in one league where I got him for $23.

Henne - $9/$15

Fitzpatrick $5

I hope this article gave you lots of food for thought (but not to use against me if you are in one of my leagues), and I encourage you to share your thoughts, comments or questions about blind waiver bidding. - mfm

 

[dagwood]

To squeeze 25 bids out of $100 probably means you are not "outbidding" very many people. For example, when you got Henderson for $6, more than likely you were the only bidder. Which also means you could have gotten him in the First Come First Serve phase of waivers.

I like to spend 80% of my budget on 3-5 acquisitiona over the course of the year. These would be players who could really help my team (ex Vick last year). I tend to avoid the really overhypped guys (B.Jackson last year) unless I have a definitive desperate need.

The other 20% goes to buy week fillers and fliers.

I supplement this with picks in the First Come First Serve portion and probably do end up with 20-25 moves over the course of a year.

 

[Turtles]

20 position player pick-ups per season is a tight number that I can live with. Given a season blind bidding budget of $100, this means that my average player acquisition cost must average approx $6 per week in each league - this assumes that there are 16 weeks of waiver bidding.

Maybe I'm missing something, but why does the number of weeks matter? 20 pickups at $100 total is $5 per move, not $6.

 

[GCP]

Last year, we had a guy bid 100 on Vick after week 1. We all laughed and then 7 led his team to the championship game.

Lesson being avoid hard and fast rules. A lot of times there ARE breakout players early in the year and any amount of bid points is justified to acquire them. If Cam Newton had been available in my league, I would have bid 100, for example.

 

[dagwood]

Last year, we had a guy bid 100 on Vick after week 1. We all laughed and then 7 led his team to the championship game.Lesson being avoid hard and fast rules. A lot of times there ARE breakout players early in the year and any amount of bid points is justified to acquire them. If Cam Newton had been available in my league, I would have bid 100, for example.

There always seems to be at least one.Wonder who that guy is this year?

 

[Touchdown There]

Last year, we had a guy bid 100 on Vick after week 1. We all laughed and then 7 led his team to the championship game.Lesson being avoid hard and fast rules. A lot of times there ARE breakout players early in the year and any amount of bid points is justified to acquire them. If Cam Newton had been available in my league, I would have bid 100, for example.

There always seems to be at least one.Wonder who that guy is this year?

Cam Newton was rostered in most leagues prior to week 1. There is no Vick on waivers this year.

 

[GregR]

To squeeze 25 bids out of $100 probably means you are not "outbidding" very many people. For example, when you got Henderson for $6, more than likely you were the only bidder. Which also means you could have gotten him in the First Come First Serve phase of waivers.I like to spend 80% of my budget on 3-5 acquisitiona over the course of the year. These would be players who could really help my team (ex Vick last year). I tend to avoid the really overhypped guys (B.Jackson last year) unless I have a definitive desperate need.The other 20% goes to buy week fillers and fliers.I supplement this with picks in the First Come First Serve portion and probably do end up with 20-25 moves over the course of a year.

My blind bidding waivers don't work like this since our bids are hard salary cap space. But I think I would probably go with Dagwood's method for the most parts. With deep rosters, most of my waiver moves are picking up IDPs, kickers, etc for bye weeks. Most of the time I come up with a large enough list that I'm happy with that I could wait, and so I won't do more than throw a $1 over the minimum for someone I favor slightly more than others. So I would save my money for those few players I think could make a difference over the course of the season. It would have to be a great situation for me to go all in on a player. Vick last year is a good example. A RB who becomes the starter on a team with a great line would be another example, like Ben Tate but only if Foster actually went down for the year. I think trying to target 3-4 players and going with near minimums on the others is probably the best way to maximize your value. But do be willing to go all in if the player warrants it.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Last year, we had a guy bid 100 on Vick after week 1. We all laughed and then 7 led his team to the championship game.Lesson being avoid hard and fast rules. A lot of times there ARE breakout players early in the year and any amount of bid points is justified to acquire them. If Cam Newton had been available in my league, I would have bid 100, for example.

There always seems to be at least one.Wonder who that guy is this year?

Cam Newton was rostered in most leagues prior to week 1. There is no Vick on waivers this year.

Unless it's Tebow.

 

[madd futher]

20 position player pick-ups per season is a tight number that I can live with. Given a season blind bidding budget of $100, this means that my average player acquisition cost must average approx $6 per week in each league - this assumes that there are 16 weeks of waiver bidding.

Maybe I'm missing something, but why does the number of weeks matter? 20 pickups at $100 total is $5 per move, not $6.

I think I said $6 per week average based on 20 bids per season. Yes it's an average of $5 per successful bid, but 20 successful bids divided by 16 waiver weeks averages slightly over $6 per week assuming a 16 week waiver season.You will also notice that by front-end loading the budget for the 1st 4 weeks, in most leagues I am in an underbudget position and so I have the discretion to bid sugnificantly more than the $5 per transaction average for those like Newton that I really covet. My only soft 'rule' is that i never want to be OVER budget by more than one week.

Believe me, I can pick up some real quality players using this method especially if I can think ahead of my leaguemates and identify them early enough before the "full" break-out.the break-out. but this strategy keeps me from over-investing in players who possibly could, but may or may not - perform at the stud level.

In picking up potential break-out players, nothing is certain and there is siginificant risk in blowing your waiver budget on a "one week wonder" - witness Brandon Jackson last year, but there are numerous outer examples I could point to. In fact, when many were picking up Vick last year, Andy Reid was still saying that the job would be Kolb's as soon as he came back from injury. In most leagues, Vick was rostered pre-break out based on the Kolb injury.

 

[Turtles]

20 position player pick-ups per season is a tight number that I can live with. Given a season blind bidding budget of $100, this means that my average player acquisition cost must average approx $6 per week in each league - this assumes that there are 16 weeks of waiver bidding.

Maybe I'm missing something, but why does the number of weeks matter? 20 pickups at $100 total is $5 per move, not $6.

I think I said $6 per week average based on 20 bids per season.

You're right, I was probably reading too quickly.

 

[madd futher]

To squeeze 25 bids out of $100 probably means you are not "outbidding" very many people. For example, when you got Henderson for $6, more than likely you were the only bidder. Which also means you could have gotten him in the First Come First Serve phase of waivers.

I like to spend 80% of my budget on 3-5 acquisitiona over the course of the year. These would be players who could really help my team (ex Vick last year). I tend to avoid the really overhypped guys (B.Jackson last year) unless I have a definitive desperate need.

The other 20% goes to buy week fillers and fliers.

I supplement this with picks in the First Come First Serve portion and probably do end up with 20-25 moves over the course of a year.

Or not! My experience is that in general, about 1/2 the people who use blind bids tend to "chicken bid" even more than I do, while the other half tends to overbid very early in the season. When I played in the FBG-FPC last year we could see all unsucessful bids as well as successful ones. Monitoring and logging about 5 teams between mine and my friends, I can tell you that often there would have been guys who bid >$60 on him, relative to the $1000 waiver budget.I was surprized to get Newton for $23 in the only league where he was available.

 

[Warrior]

Much of this article is cherry-picking. Bragging about your waiver wire pickup of Cam Newton after ONE nfl game? He could crash and burn for the rest of the season. Pointing out the $99 bid last season on BJax which didn't work out? Again, that's just bad analysis. Try looking at the opposide scenario as well - Priest Holmes went down and Larry Johnson dominated the league a few years ago, winning most of his owners a fantasy championship. A $99 FAAB bid there would have been pure gold.

If McFadden was ruled out for the season and MBush was available, you really wouldn't spend over 25% on your budget to pick him up? And you wouldn't spend over 25% on Montario Hardesty if Peyton Hillis breaks his leg tomorrow? Really?!

You have far too many hard and fast rules when flexibility would be much more effective in the long run.

 

[madd futher]

Much of this article is cherry-picking. Bragging about your waiver wire pickup of Cam Newton after ONE nfl game? He could crash and burn for the rest of the season. Pointing out the $99 bid last season on BJax which didn't work out? Again, that's just bad analysis. Try looking at the opposide scenario as well - Priest Holmes went down and Larry Johnson dominated the league a few years ago, winning most of his owners a fantasy championship. A $99 FAAB bid there would have been pure gold.

If McFadden was ruled out for the season and MBush was available, you really wouldn't spend over 25% on your budget to pick him up? And you wouldn't spend over 25% on Montario Hardesty if Peyton Hillis breaks his leg tomorrow? Really?!

You have far too many hard and fast rules when flexibility would be much more effective in the long run.

If you think that the article was written to brag about picking up Cam Newton for $23, you are dead wrong and you completely missed the point of the article. Cam Newton may turn out to have a great rookie year. Or not... My point was that while I was very willing to pay that price, the risk (for me) was much too high to bid more - although I'm sure many owners would have done so. Your Michael Bush example is a great one as compared to the Brandon Jackson situation with the Pack last year. Virtually everyone was certain that Brandon Jackson would be 'the man'. I know, because I saw how much he went for in 6 different leagues last year. Virtually no-one spent more than $10 on rookie James Starks at that time. If McFadden goes down, many owners will go "all-in" for Michael Bush. But who is the RB on the Oakland roster who best fits the profile of McFadden? Taiwan Jones! It is entirely possible that in the similar scenario, Jones does a Starks and pushes M Bush into a secondary role.

IMO, based on many league years of playing and observing blind bid waivers, the all-in approach carries too much risk, and potentially hamstrings your ability to make roster moves for the rest of the season when it backfires.

 

[Touchdown There]

Last year, we had a guy bid 100 on Vick after week 1. We all laughed and then 7 led his team to the championship game.Lesson being avoid hard and fast rules. A lot of times there ARE breakout players early in the year and any amount of bid points is justified to acquire them. If Cam Newton had been available in my league, I would have bid 100, for example.

There always seems to be at least one.Wonder who that guy is this year?

Cam Newton was rostered in most leagues prior to week 1. There is no Vick on waivers this year.

Unless it's Tebow.

I just checked my leagues, 4 of 5 of them have Tebow rostered. The fifth has a short roster size (15) in a 12-team league. Plus he is still 3rd string, Vick was second string.