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Aaron Hernandez, TE, New England Patriots (2 Viewers)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Aaron Hernandez, TE, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Aaron Hernandez Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
I've been trying to find guys to steal targets from when projecting the NE offense this year and I've got Hernandez for around 90-100, but that's a tough one as he saw 113 last year in only 14 games (8.1/gm). He producted 910 yds (11.5 ypr) and 7 TD on 79 receptions last year. I don't project injury, but the guy has missed 2 games a season for both seasons so that's got to be factored in when drafting him just a few picks ahead of Vernon Davis and Jason Witten.

Let's say he does get 95 targets, catching 70% like last year would put him at 66.5 receptions and 12 ypr would give him about 800 yards which is likely less than or equal to guys drafted later than him, so you pretty much have to be expecting Lloyd to be a Branch-like factor next year (or for Welker's role to be myseriously decreased by a lot) in order to justify drafting him 60th overall (TE4). Since I do plan to snag Lloyd in every league, I won't be drafting Hernandez in any.

 
I've been trying to find guys to steal targets from when projecting the NE offense this year and I've got Hernandez for around 90-100, but that's a tough one as he saw 113 last year in only 14 games (8.1/gm). He producted 910 yds (11.5 ypr) and 7 TD on 79 receptions last year. I don't project injury, but the guy has missed 2 games a season for both seasons so that's got to be factored in when drafting him just a few picks ahead of Vernon Davis and Jason Witten.Let's say he does get 95 targets, catching 70% like last year would put him at 66.5 receptions and 12 ypr would give him about 800 yards which is likely less than or equal to guys drafted later than him, so you pretty much have to be expecting Lloyd to be a Branch-like factor next year (or for Welker's role to be myseriously decreased by a lot) in order to justify drafting him 60th overall (TE4). Since I do plan to snag Lloyd in every league, I won't be drafting Hernandez in any.
I tried tackling the Pats pass protection dilemna in on of the other Pats threads. IMO, Welker will continue to get his. He's Brady's security blanket. Maybe not as many targets as last year but still basically 10 a game. As I see it, Gronk will lose targets because I don't believe he will be 100% and teams will cover him better. Hernandez will also see fewer targets, as the Pats upgraded their receiving corps and those targets have to come from somewhere. Maybe they trow a bit less than usual to the RBs. I just don't see Gronk and Hernandez having the same total numbers as last year, as there are too many mouths to feed.IMO, too many people are taking what the Pats players did last year and then allocating only crumbs to the new guys. I don't think you can make a decent projection using that model . . . you have to remap with the assets that are there and rebuild from the ground floor up.Since Moss left, the Pats have been trying to make do with the likes of Price, Tate, Ocho Cinco, Slater, Underwood, and Edelman. Branch did ok for a while, but they really have been lacking for WR depth. They could have 3 new options this year in Lloyd, Gaffney, and Stallworth (although I doubt Stallworth will make the team). Teams will be forced to cover outside receivers for a change.
 
I've been trying to find guys to steal targets from when projecting the NE offense this year and I've got Hernandez for around 90-100, but that's a tough one as he saw 113 last year in only 14 games (8.1/gm). He producted 910 yds (11.5 ypr) and 7 TD on 79 receptions last year. I don't project injury, but the guy has missed 2 games a season for both seasons so that's got to be factored in when drafting him just a few picks ahead of Vernon Davis and Jason Witten.Let's say he does get 95 targets, catching 70% like last year would put him at 66.5 receptions and 12 ypr would give him about 800 yards which is likely less than or equal to guys drafted later than him, so you pretty much have to be expecting Lloyd to be a Branch-like factor next year (or for Welker's role to be myseriously decreased by a lot) in order to justify drafting him 60th overall (TE4). Since I do plan to snag Lloyd in every league, I won't be drafting Hernandez in any.
Curious do you play in PPR leagues?
 
Curious do you play in PPR leagues?
Maybe 1 or 2 per year, but it is not my preferred scoring system because I'm not into socialism. Why do you ask?
I would think it is safe to project welker for a slight downturn, seeing as he had his best season of his career last year, and is a year older now.Don't really know how PPR = socialism though. I guess non-ppr equals a dictatorship or monarchy ruled by a few lucky RBs, huh? See how I can mock your preferred system just as easily?
 
I've been trying to find guys to steal targets from when projecting the NE offense this year and I've got Hernandez for around 90-100, but that's a tough one as he saw 113 last year in only 14 games (8.1/gm). He producted 910 yds (11.5 ypr) and 7 TD on 79 receptions last year. I don't project injury, but the guy has missed 2 games a season for both seasons so that's got to be factored in when drafting him just a few picks ahead of Vernon Davis and Jason Witten.Let's say he does get 95 targets, catching 70% like last year would put him at 66.5 receptions and 12 ypr would give him about 800 yards which is likely less than or equal to guys drafted later than him, so you pretty much have to be expecting Lloyd to be a Branch-like factor next year (or for Welker's role to be myseriously decreased by a lot) in order to justify drafting him 60th overall (TE4). Since I do plan to snag Lloyd in every league, I won't be drafting Hernandez in any.
I tried tackling the Pats pass protection dilemna in on of the other Pats threads. IMO, Welker will continue to get his. He's Brady's security blanket. Maybe not as many targets as last year but still basically 10 a game. As I see it, Gronk will lose targets because I don't believe he will be 100% and teams will cover him better. Hernandez will also see fewer targets, as the Pats upgraded their receiving corps and those targets have to come from somewhere. Maybe they trow a bit less than usual to the RBs. I just don't see Gronk and Hernandez having the same total numbers as last year, as there are too many mouths to feed.IMO, too many people are taking what the Pats players did last year and then allocating only crumbs to the new guys. I don't think you can make a decent projection using that model . . . you have to remap with the assets that are there and rebuild from the ground floor up.Since Moss left, the Pats have been trying to make do with the likes of Price, Tate, Ocho Cinco, Slater, Underwood, and Edelman. Branch did ok for a while, but they really have been lacking for WR depth. They could have 3 new options this year in Lloyd, Gaffney, and Stallworth (although I doubt Stallworth will make the team). Teams will be forced to cover outside receivers for a change.
I agree that Gronk and Hernandez see less. The Pats didn't have much else to throw too last season. Now that they have better options at wideout the ball will get spread across the new mouths. They have to through a certain amount to Lloyd and Gaffney so the DBs have to respect the deep ball and not sit on the intermediate stuff.
 
I'm definitely a bit worried about the Pats receivers/TEs. You almost have to project that the Pats overall passing numbers will come back to earth just a little, since 5,000 yard passing seasons are so rare. Plus, the Pats D should be improved which may lead to slightly less aggressive play calling.

So I could see the numbers of Welker, Gronk and Hernandez all coming down a little bit with Lloyd putting up bigger numbers than Branch.

There are a couple factors that work in Hernandez's favor though in terms of preserving his piece of the pie:

1. Of the "Big 4" just mentioned, he's the only one under 30 who isn't coming off an injury. In fact, he is extremely young as he played most of last season at only 21 years old. In terms of improvement, I'll take the guy who is 22 over Welker, who just turned 31.

2. I am really intrigued by the possibility that the Pats can find new ways to use Hernandez in their offense. Specifically, he really brings something unique to the table running the ball out of the FB position. He led the Pats in rushing yards in the playoffs vs. Denver and I thought he looked good on each of the carries. He also did this a lot at Florida (it counted as a reception, but he was basically another option out there with the forward option pass). If the Pats decide that they want to give him even 3 or 4 carries per game, that could have a huge positive impact on his value.

Overall, I agree with where he is ranked as a top 4 TE as I think he has the highest upside outside of Graham/Gronk and that he's pretty safe in terms of floor also. However, I also feel like the chances are pretty high that he ends up closer to the middle of the TE pack and thus I don't think I'd take him at his current ADP (would prefer a guy like Gresham or F. Davis much later).

 
First - Don't underestimate the effect of Gaffney on the roster for all the Patriot receivers. He is a favorite of Brady and will see targets in critical situations that previously went to Gronk or Welker.

Having said that, I expect Hernandez to continue to be a between the 20's receiver. maybe 950 yards/4 tds.

 
First - Don't underestimate the effect of Gaffney on the roster for all the Patriot receivers. He is a favorite of Brady and will see targets in critical situations that previously went to Gronk or Welker.

Having said that, I expect Hernandez to continue to be a between the 20's receiver. maybe 950 yards/4 tds.
:confused: You know he only had 2 fewer RZ targets than Gronkowski last year, and more than any WR.
 
First - Don't underestimate the effect of Gaffney on the roster for all the Patriot receivers. He is a favorite of Brady and will see targets in critical situations that previously went to Gronk or Welker.Having said that, I expect Hernandez to continue to be a between the 20's receiver. maybe 950 yards/4 tds.
I think that Gaffney settles into a reserve role. In 2007, he had 36/449/5 -- Roughly about 10% of Brady's production, I don't see him doing much to AH's stats...I'd say AH gets about 75/850/8
 
Curious do you play in PPR leagues?
Maybe 1 or 2 per year, but it is not my preferred scoring system because I'm not into socialism. Why do you ask?
I ask because you stated you're targeting Lloyd in all of your drafts and wondered what your projections for him are in ppr in comparison to Hernandez.
My projections are the same no matter what scoring system :)I forget what my projection was for Lloyd, though... something like 120 targets, 72 rec x 16 ypr = 1152 yds 9 TD but it's really hard to guess at. I like his relationship with McDaniels and I've heard really good things about his chemistry in the system so far. But just strictly Lloyd vs. Hernandez, I guess you are looking at a few more receptions for Lloyd but much better ypr and likely more TDs. I won't be the least bit surprised if Lloyd leads the Pats in TDs this year. He's capable of scoring some long ones while also being a great red zone target.
 
All reports have Hernendez tearing it up so far. With so many targets on NE. I don't know where to project him at this year. Can he out perform Gronk?

Aaron Hernandez has been "on fire" early in Patriots training camp.

Hernandez and Brandon Lloyd have been the most explosive offensive players, giving a clinic on body control. Hernandez's role hasn't changed under new play-caller Josh McDaniels. "Our offensive coordinator's a monster," said Hernandez "He knows how to create plays to get people open. I love playing for him." Hernandez is Rotoworld's No. 4 fantasy tight end this season.

 
Hernandez has generally been practicing with the receivers more so than the tight ends at training camp so far.

Also, from the first few days of practice, the Pats have been rinse and repeat in practicing screen plays to a wide range of personnel (RB, WR, and TE) and practicing over the top vertical routes. Not a whole lot of intermediate stuff as of yet. McDaniels was a big utilizer of the screen the first time he was around.

I would not read much into Gronk seemingly not lighting it up in camp (or Hernandez doing well in comparison). Gronk just got cleared to play, so he will have some conditioning and rust issues. Gronk should still be the primary red zone threat, and that alone should make him outscore Hernandez for fantasy purposes.

 
Wasn't there a BB quote out there that alluded to Hernandez taking on an adaptation of Welker's role? Someone was pontificating that the Pats will begin to phase out WW this year with AH being the beneficiary. I don't remember where I saw it...

 
Wasn't there a BB quote out there that alluded to Hernandez taking on an adaptation of Welker's role? Someone was pontificating that the Pats will begin to phase out WW this year with AH being the beneficiary. I don't remember where I saw it...
BB never said that and has not even come close to addressing that as far as I know. There's been some speculation in the Shark Pool here that that COULD happen, but that's not coming from the team.
 
Hernandez has generally been practicing with the receivers more so than the tight ends at training camp so far.

Also, from the first few days of practice, the Pats have been rinse and repeat in practicing screen plays to a wide range of personnel (RB, WR, and TE) and practicing over the top vertical routes. Not a whole lot of intermediate stuff as of yet. McDaniels was a big utilizer of the screen the first time he was around.

I would not read much into Gronk seemingly not lighting it up in camp (or Hernandez doing well in comparison). Gronk just got cleared to play, so he will have some conditioning and rust issues. Gronk should still be the primary red zone threat, and that alone should make him outscore Hernandez for fantasy purposes.
Not to question your Patriot insight, but is this true? Hernandez only had 2 fewer Red Zone targets than Gronkowski last year. And 4 fewer the year before. But he's also played in 4 fewer games thank Gronkowksi.

 
Wasn't there a BB quote out there that alluded to Hernandez taking on an adaptation of Welker's role? Someone was pontificating that the Pats will begin to phase out WW this year with AH being the beneficiary. I don't remember where I saw it...
Think you got that from yudkin
 
Wasn't there a BB quote out there that alluded to Hernandez taking on an adaptation of Welker's role? Someone was pontificating that the Pats will begin to phase out WW this year with AH being the beneficiary. I don't remember where I saw it...
Think you got that from yudkin
I've been looking for the post, but can't find it. It could be in any of the other Pat spotlights. It was vague (when is BB not?), but it implied an adaptation of sorts. Wish I could find it. :kicksrock:
 
Hernandez has generally been practicing with the receivers more so than the tight ends at training camp so far.

Also, from the first few days of practice, the Pats have been rinse and repeat in practicing screen plays to a wide range of personnel (RB, WR, and TE) and practicing over the top vertical routes. Not a whole lot of intermediate stuff as of yet. McDaniels was a big utilizer of the screen the first time he was around.

I would not read much into Gronk seemingly not lighting it up in camp (or Hernandez doing well in comparison). Gronk just got cleared to play, so he will have some conditioning and rust issues. Gronk should still be the primary red zone threat, and that alone should make him outscore Hernandez for fantasy purposes.
Not to question your Patriot insight, but is this true? Hernandez only had 2 fewer Red Zone targets than Gronkowski last year. And 4 fewer the year before. But he's also played in 4 fewer games thank Gronkowksi.
From watching pretty much every Pats game, Gronk is usually the target IN the end zone. Hernandez has often been the target underneath or BEFORE the end zone, which may make the numbers look more even than I think they are. For example, Hernandez might get a screen pass on a play at the 18 yard line or a route to get him the ball well before the end zone. From what I remember, Gronk is usually the guy running routes deeper into the red zone or into the end zone. I think the difference in total TD would be a decent example to support that they look to score more with Gronk than Hernadez. (Gronk 31 total TD in 36 games vs. 15 TD in 32 games for Hernandez counting the playoffs for both guys.)
 
Wasn't there a BB quote out there that alluded to Hernandez taking on an adaptation of Welker's role? Someone was pontificating that the Pats will begin to phase out WW this year with AH being the beneficiary. I don't remember where I saw it...
Think you got that from yudkin
I've been looking for the post, but can't find it. It could be in any of the other Pat spotlights. It was vague (when is BB not?), but it implied an adaptation of sorts. Wish I could find it. :kicksrock:
I mentioned something about it in one of these Pats threads as a possible outcome, but that is not something I saw or heard anywhere. Certainly it is an option and one that could cost the Pats less money (Hernandez would cost a few hundred thousand dollars to play next year vs. $11 million if they franchised Welker.) I doubt the production drop off would be that big, as Hernandez is just as difficult to defend as Welker, but for a lot of different reasons.
 
Wasn't there a BB quote out there that alluded to Hernandez taking on an adaptation of Welker's role? Someone was pontificating that the Pats will begin to phase out WW this year with AH being the beneficiary. I don't remember where I saw it...
Think you got that from yudkin
I've been looking for the post, but can't find it. It could be in any of the other Pat spotlights. It was vague (when is BB not?), but it implied an adaptation of sorts. Wish I could find it. :kicksrock:
I mentioned something about it in one of these Pats threads as a possible outcome, but that is not something I saw or heard anywhere. Certainly it is an option and one that could cost the Pats less money (Hernandez would cost a few hundred thousand dollars to play next year vs. $11 million if they franchised Welker.) I doubt the production drop off would be that big, as Hernandez is just as difficult to defend as Welker, but for a lot of different reasons.
I'm positive that there was a BB quote involved, but it was one of those things where there was a lot left up to interpretation. Just want to re-read it.
 
Hernandez is the hardest returning guy in NE for me to project. IMO Welker's role is very well defined and very different from that of Lloyd -- his YPC looks like an outlier and will probably come down, but his 2012 targets, catches and TDs are all reasonably in line with what expect moving forward. Gronk's TDs will regress, but IMO he's simply the best player (not named Tom Brady) on the field in NE, so his targets, etc should be pretty steady. The RBs and non-starting WRs should be similar in terms of production as a group, just with a few new faces in larger roles.

Hernandez is much tougher for me. On the one hand, he is very good. On the other, even Tom Brady is going to have a hard time completing more than 400 passes, give or take, and the new guys' targets have to be accounted for also.

 
Hernandez has generally been practicing with the receivers more so than the tight ends at training camp so far.

Also, from the first few days of practice, the Pats have been rinse and repeat in practicing screen plays to a wide range of personnel (RB, WR, and TE) and practicing over the top vertical routes. Not a whole lot of intermediate stuff as of yet. McDaniels was a big utilizer of the screen the first time he was around.

I would not read much into Gronk seemingly not lighting it up in camp (or Hernandez doing well in comparison). Gronk just got cleared to play, so he will have some conditioning and rust issues. Gronk should still be the primary red zone threat, and that alone should make him outscore Hernandez for fantasy purposes.
Not to question your Patriot insight, but is this true? Hernandez only had 2 fewer Red Zone targets than Gronkowski last year. And 4 fewer the year before. But he's also played in 4 fewer games thank Gronkowksi.
From watching pretty much every Pats game, Gronk is usually the target IN the end zone. Hernandez has often been the target underneath or BEFORE the end zone, which may make the numbers look more even than I think they are. For example, Hernandez might get a screen pass on a play at the 18 yard line or a route to get him the ball well before the end zone. From what I remember, Gronk is usually the guy running routes deeper into the red zone or into the end zone. I think the difference in total TD would be a decent example to support that they look to score more with Gronk than Hernadez. (Gronk 31 total TD in 36 games vs. 15 TD in 32 games for Hernandez counting the playoffs for both guys.)
Great info. Thanks. I did notice the large disparity between converting the redzone targets into TD's. But the disparity makes sense when adding your observation, as oppossed to it being just random fluctuation.

 
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never got around to logs, but I'll steal this from Ian Logue

http://www.patsfans.com/ian/blog/2012/08/13/inside-the-numbers-a-look-at-the-patriots-red-zone-production-last-season/

I did a little more digging thanks to a post on our messageboard and noticed that when the Patriots got inside the 5 yard line, that’s where they definitely weren’t at their best throwing the football. Brady’s completion percentage drops to 45% after the veteran QB was just 14-of-31 for 32 yards, while throwing 12 touchdowns and one interception.

The receiving leaders down that close were Aaron Hernandez (12 targets, 5 receptions, 10 yards and 4 touchdowns, Deion Branch (7 targets, 4 receptions, 9 yards and 4 touchdowns), Wes Welker (3 targets, 2 receptions, 7 yards and 2 touchdowns) and Rob Gronkowski (5 targets, 2 receptions, 6 yards and 2 touchdowns).

 
never got around to logs, but I'll steal this from Ian Logue

http://www.patsfans.com/ian/blog/2012/08/13/inside-the-numbers-a-look-at-the-patriots-red-zone-production-last-season/

I did a little more digging thanks to a post on our messageboard and noticed that when the Patriots got inside the 5 yard line, that’s where they definitely weren’t at their best throwing the football. Brady’s completion percentage drops to 45% after the veteran QB was just 14-of-31 for 32 yards, while throwing 12 touchdowns and one interception.

The receiving leaders down that close were Aaron Hernandez (12 targets, 5 receptions, 10 yards and 4 touchdowns, Deion Branch (7 targets, 4 receptions, 9 yards and 4 touchdowns), Wes Welker (3 targets, 2 receptions, 7 yards and 2 touchdowns) and Rob Gronkowski (5 targets, 2 receptions, 6 yards and 2 touchdowns).
Well, Gronk lost an end zone target on a play that got ruled a running play (that went for a TD). I also think the completion percentage is a little misleading, as Brady in the main would rather throw the ball away rather than risk an INT or a sack.I still feel that overall Brady will throw the ball to the guy that is open, whomever that may be. At the goal line, that may not be Gronk, but in the red zone they seemed to have a knack for hooking up and finding pay dirt. Hernandez is more of a WR anyway, so it's a bit odd comparing the two as they serve different roles. I suppose if teams are going to double Gronk and let Hernandez have a one on one mismatch that would make for more targets to Hernandez. From what I have heard, the Pats are going back to running a bunch of screens, and that could also impact what happend near the goal line.

 
Screens make sense as they obviously have big issues with the offensive line. Good way to neutralize the blitz and they have a ton of players that work well in space.

 
never got around to logs, but I'll steal this from Ian Logue

http://www.patsfans.com/ian/blog/2012/08/13/inside-the-numbers-a-look-at-the-patriots-red-zone-production-last-season/

I did a little more digging thanks to a post on our messageboard and noticed that when the Patriots got inside the 5 yard line, that’s where they definitely weren’t at their best throwing the football. Brady’s completion percentage drops to 45% after the veteran QB was just 14-of-31 for 32 yards, while throwing 12 touchdowns and one interception.

The receiving leaders down that close were Aaron Hernandez (12 targets, 5 receptions, 10 yards and 4 touchdowns, Deion Branch (7 targets, 4 receptions, 9 yards and 4 touchdowns), Wes Welker (3 targets, 2 receptions, 7 yards and 2 touchdowns) and Rob Gronkowski (5 targets, 2 receptions, 6 yards and 2 touchdowns).
Well, Gronk lost an end zone target on a play that got ruled a running play (that went for a TD). I also think the completion percentage is a little misleading, as Brady in the main would rather throw the ball away rather than risk an INT or a sack.I still feel that overall Brady will throw the ball to the guy that is open, whomever that may be. At the goal line, that may not be Gronk, but in the red zone they seemed to have a knack for hooking up and finding pay dirt. Hernandez is more of a WR anyway, so it's a bit odd comparing the two as they serve different roles. I suppose if teams are going to double Gronk and let Hernandez have a one on one mismatch that would make for more targets to Hernandez. From what I have heard, the Pats are going back to running a bunch of screens, and that could also impact what happend near the goal line.
Assuming they do go back to running a bunch of screens, who do you see that benefitting?
 
'GordonGekko said:
110 receptions, 1450 yards, 14 receiving TDs, 360 yards rushing, 5 rushing TDsCareer year. While defenses are desperately trying to do more disguises to confuse QBs pre snap, the Patriots have a player who can play WR, TE or RB at any given time while on the field. I think defenses will have a hard time handling a player moving all over the field like Hernandez. He's very good at shedding tacklers. Good football IQ. Keeps his mouth shut. I think he become Brady's "safety valve" receiver by default because out of the five major mouths to feed ( Ridley, Welker, Lloyd, Gronk and Hernandez), he'll never leave the field as much as the rest of them. I think Gronk's production takes a decline ( he become a high paid decoy with all the attention focused his way defensively) and Welker's as well ( I think the combo of Lloyd, Hernandez and Ridley eat into Wes' numbers)
You cray cray
 
'GordonGekko said:
110 receptions, 1450 yards, 14 receiving TDs, 360 yards rushing, 5 rushing TDsCareer year. While defenses are desperately trying to do more disguises to confuse QBs pre snap, the Patriots have a player who can play WR, TE or RB at any given time while on the field. I think defenses will have a hard time handling a player moving all over the field like Hernandez. He's very good at shedding tacklers. Good football IQ. Keeps his mouth shut. I think he become Brady's "safety valve" receiver by default because out of the five major mouths to feed ( Ridley, Welker, Lloyd, Gronk and Hernandez), he'll never leave the field as much as the rest of them. I think Gronk's production takes a decline ( he become a high paid decoy with all the attention focused his way defensively) and Welker's as well ( I think the combo of Lloyd, Hernandez and Ridley eat into Wes' numbers)
110 receptions? That's insane. Like, actually crazy.Hernandez comes off the field more than Gronkowski and, I believe, Welker. Welker and Gronk already get a TON of attention defensively (especially Gronk) and they still put up big numbers. If Hernandez started dominating the offense the way your numbers suggest, the defensive attention would shift to him. I think Hernandez is going to have a very good year, but your projections are out of hand.
 
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'GordonGekko said:
110 receptions, 1450 yards, 14 receiving TDs, 360 yards rushing, 5 rushing TDsCareer year. While defenses are desperately trying to do more disguises to confuse QBs pre snap, the Patriots have a player who can play WR, TE or RB at any given time while on the field. I think defenses will have a hard time handling a player moving all over the field like Hernandez. He's very good at shedding tacklers. Good football IQ. Keeps his mouth shut. I think he become Brady's "safety valve" receiver by default because out of the five major mouths to feed ( Ridley, Welker, Lloyd, Gronk and Hernandez), he'll never leave the field as much as the rest of them. I think Gronk's production takes a decline ( he become a high paid decoy with all the attention focused his way defensively) and Welker's as well ( I think the combo of Lloyd, Hernandez and Ridley eat into Wes' numbers)
So what is Hernandez going to Overtake Calvin Johnson as the number 1 receiver in football this year?110 receptions? That's insane. Like, actually crazy.Hernandez comes off the field more than Ridley and, I believe, Welker. Welker and Gronk already get a TON of attention defensively (especially Gronk) and they still put up big numbers. If Hernandez started dominating the offense the way your numbers suggest, the defensive attention would shift to him. I think Hernandez is going to have a very good year, but your projections are out of hand.
:goodposting: this guy must be a Hernandez homer. I like the guy but really 1800 overall yards and 19 TDs? :jawdrop:
 
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'Shawn said:
'DevilintheDetail said:
'GordonGekko said:
110 receptions, 1450 yards, 14 receiving TDs, 360 yards rushing, 5 rushing TDsCareer year. While defenses are desperately trying to do more disguises to confuse QBs pre snap, the Patriots have a player who can play WR, TE or RB at any given time while on the field. I think defenses will have a hard time handling a player moving all over the field like Hernandez. He's very good at shedding tacklers. Good football IQ. Keeps his mouth shut. I think he become Brady's "safety valve" receiver by default because out of the five major mouths to feed ( Ridley, Welker, Lloyd, Gronk and Hernandez), he'll never leave the field as much as the rest of them. I think Gronk's production takes a decline ( he become a high paid decoy with all the attention focused his way defensively) and Welker's as well ( I think the combo of Lloyd, Hernandez and Ridley eat into Wes' numbers)
So what is Hernandez going to Overtake Calvin Johnson as the number 1 receiver in football this year?110 receptions? That's insane. Like, actually crazy.Hernandez comes off the field more than Ridley and, I believe, Welker. Welker and Gronk already get a TON of attention defensively (especially Gronk) and they still put up big numbers. If Hernandez started dominating the offense the way your numbers suggest, the defensive attention would shift to him. I think Hernandez is going to have a very good year, but your projections are out of hand.
:goodposting: this guy must be a Hernandez homer. I like the guy but really 1800 overall yards and 19 TDs? :jawdrop:
No good reason the backup TE shouldn't threaten 2000/20. You're just a hater.
 
'GordonGekko said:
...out of the five major mouths to feed ( Ridley, Welker, Lloyd, Gronk and Hernandez), he'll never leave the field as much as the rest of them.
2011 snap count:Gronk 95%Welker 89%Hernandez 77%Why do you see Hernandez topping Gronk and Welker this season?
 

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