Aaron Hernandez (1 Viewer)

[KeithKow]

Everyone is making a huge deal of Jimmy Graham having 8 targets last night. Did anyone notice that Aaron Hernandez also had 8 targets, and was also lined up in the slot? Both had 5 receptions.

Granted, part of this may have been Brady checking down due to a ridiculous pass rush, but I don't think that is the case entirely. Graham also had more yardage.

I also love Graham this year, but just saying....Hernandez is no slouch this year.

 

[Hendo]

I love me some Hernandez however everyone knows Gronkowski will be getting the endzone love where Jimmy will command it in NO.

 

[eaglesfan7]

As the last poster noted, Jimmy Graham doesn't have Gronkowski taking away targets and receptions, red zone or not.

 

[KeithKow]

Excellent points, but I do think Hernandez will have value in PPR leagues.

 

[Sabertooth]

I love me some Hernandez however everyone knows Gronkowski will be getting the endzone love where Jimmy will command it in NO.

I don't know that Gronkowski will get any more endzone love than Hernandez? He did last year while Hernandez was hurt. But he's not hurt now.

 

[glong989]

I still see Gronk being more valuable in either format. Once the regular season starts I see Rob getting more snaps as the Pats utilize more 3 wide sets with one TE. I also look for him to get the red zone calls as well. We will see, I might have to end up rostering both of them and see who emerges - hopefully this isn't a headache between the two like it was last year.

 

[Ping Pong]

I love me some Hernandez however everyone knows Gronkowski will be getting the endzone love where Jimmy will command it in NO.

It seems like Brees likes to go to Colston in the endzone as well...

 

[Sabertooth]

I still see Gronk being more valuable in either format. Once the regular season starts I see Rob getting more snaps as the Pats utilize more 3 wide sets with one TE. I also look for him to get the red zone calls as well. We will see, I might have to end up rostering both of them and see who emerges - hopefully this isn't a headache between the two like it was last year.

Meh, I'm not so sure on that. The advantage of Hernandez is that he add the element of surprise to the offense. He's a mismatch. When you go three wide, teams can counter with the nickel. This isn't possible when you trot out two tight ends and a full back and then shift one TE into the slot or out wide.

 

[LawFitz]

Hernandez just seems like a huge week-to-week variance guy due to the existence of Gronk and the Pats' shifting offensive focal point approach. Awesome one week, then a dud the next.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Drafted both Gronk and Hernandez in a risky move that I hope pays off as they both have huge upside. I can play them both if I use one as a flex, and Welker's health always seems to be a question mark. They both could be highly targeted in the same game. If one of them goes down, the other's value just went through the roof. Both are excellent talents that a lot of fantasy owners are shying away from because of their situation. And that leads to value in the late rounds.

 

[shortbow]

I still see Gronk being more valuable in either format. Once the regular season starts I see Rob getting more snaps as the Pats utilize more 3 wide sets with one TE. I also look for him to get the red zone calls as well. We will see, I might have to end up rostering both of them and see who emerges - hopefully this isn't a headache between the two like it was last year.

Meh, I'm not so sure on that. The advantage of Hernandez is that he add the element of surprise to the offense. He's a mismatch. When you go three wide, teams can counter with the nickel. This isn't possible when you trot out two tight ends and a full back and then shift one TE into the slot or out wide.

Hernandez adds nothing as far as surprise goes. Everyone knows hes a WR. Gronkowski is slower, stronger, just as good of a receiver and leagues ahead at blocking. They both create huge mismatches, but Gronkowski is by far the better talent.Also:Gronk, 6'6" 265Aaron, 6'1" 245

 

[Chaka]

Is the answer Aaron Hernandez?

 

[RBM]

I dont know about that losing snaps thing for Hernandez. If Im the Pats, Id much rather go out there with Branch/Welker/Gronk/Hernandez than Branch/Welker/Ocho/Gronk. Better options and gives the D more matchup problems

Proof is in the pudding...that passing offense was pretty much impossible to defend last year

 

[DexterDew]

I dont know about that losing snaps thing for Hernandez. If Im the Pats, Id much rather go out there with Branch/Welker/Gronk/Hernandez than Branch/Welker/Ocho/Gronk. Better options and gives the D more matchup problemsProof is in the pudding...that passing offense was pretty much impossible to defend last year

+1

 

[shortbow]

I dont know about that losing snaps thing for Hernandez. If Im the Pats, Id much rather go out there with Branch/Welker/Gronk/Hernandez than Branch/Welker/Ocho/Gronk. Better options and gives the D more matchup problemsProof is in the pudding...that passing offense was pretty much impossible to defend last year

+1

I dont think Hernandez will lose snaps, but he still wont approach Gronks snapcount. This is offset of course by the double TE formations and the fact that Gronkowski is much better blocker. The Pats balance their team very well. Both TEs are great, but Gronk is a man.

 

[Sabertooth]

I still see Gronk being more valuable in either format. Once the regular season starts I see Rob getting more snaps as the Pats utilize more 3 wide sets with one TE. I also look for him to get the red zone calls as well. We will see, I might have to end up rostering both of them and see who emerges - hopefully this isn't a headache between the two like it was last year.

Meh, I'm not so sure on that. The advantage of Hernandez is that he add the element of surprise to the offense. He's a mismatch. When you go three wide, teams can counter with the nickel. This isn't possible when you trot out two tight ends and a full back and then shift one TE into the slot or out wide.

Hernandez adds nothing as far as surprise goes. Everyone knows hes a WR. Gronkowski is slower, stronger, just as good of a receiver and leagues ahead at blocking. They both create huge mismatches, but Gronkowski is by far the better talent.Also:Gronk, 6'6" 265Aaron, 6'1" 245

If Hernandez is classified as a tight end and you can't see the advantage of him being used like a wide receiver, I don't know what to tell you.

 

[Sabertooth]

He outscored Gronkowsi, Graham, Gresham and Moeaki. He outscored Gronkowski heads up and PPG. And he's younger than all those players as well so you'd think he's got room to grow. He's doesn't turn 22 until November.

Even while dinged last season, the only rookie pass catcher that outscored him was Tampa Mike Williams. To see he isn't a weapon is simply folly.

 

[LawFitz]

He outscored Gronkowski heads up and PPG.

This really caught my attention. I was not aware of this and it really raised my eyebrow. I may have to reassess my Hernandez ranking. Thank you.

 

[shortbow]

I still see Gronk being more valuable in either format. Once the regular season starts I see Rob getting more snaps as the Pats utilize more 3 wide sets with one TE. I also look for him to get the red zone calls as well. We will see, I might have to end up rostering both of them and see who emerges - hopefully this isn't a headache between the two like it was last year.

Meh, I'm not so sure on that. The advantage of Hernandez is that he add the element of surprise to the offense. He's a mismatch. When you go three wide, teams can counter with the nickel. This isn't possible when you trot out two tight ends and a full back and then shift one TE into the slot or out wide.

Hernandez adds nothing as far as surprise goes. Everyone knows hes a WR. Gronkowski is slower, stronger, just as good of a receiver and leagues ahead at blocking. They both create huge mismatches, but Gronkowski is by far the better talent.Also:Gronk, 6'6" 265Aaron, 6'1" 245

If Hernandez is classified as a tight end and you can't see the advantage of him being used like a wide receiver, I don't know what to tell you.

I dont know what point your trying to make, but it doesnt exist. Anything you could say for Hernandez is also true for Gronkowski, except speed. The opposite is not the case. Hernandez: 4.58 40 yd, 33" vertGronkowski: 4.65 40 yd, 33" vertIf you've seen both of them play at all, you would automatically see that its not even close if youre comparing the two. Gronk is just as good a pass catcher and has far more utility (completely ignoring that he physically dominates Aaron).If the point you are trying to make were true, why wouldnt every team in the NFL take a big goofy WR and put him in as a TE. TE is one of the toughest positions in football to play.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I don't see where anyone has mentioned the preseason stats yet.

{Yeah, it's just preseason, but...}

Player No Yds Avg Long TD

Aaron Hernandez 14 156 11.1 20 1

Rob Gronkowski 1 7 7.0 7 0

This is per CBS which by the way has the number of TD's scored by Gronk in 2010 WRONG (CBS shows 7 when he really had 10) (how does this happen?)

In games where they both played (all but the last two) they both had 7 TD's in 2010.

If Belichick does everything he can to make sure NFL teams don't know what he's going top do how can FF teams hope to do so? s/ a Gronk owner.

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

I still see Gronk being more valuable in either format. Once the regular season starts I see Rob getting more snaps as the Pats utilize more 3 wide sets with one TE. I also look for him to get the red zone calls as well. We will see, I might have to end up rostering both of them and see who emerges - hopefully this isn't a headache between the two like it was last year.

Meh, I'm not so sure on that. The advantage of Hernandez is that he add the element of surprise to the offense. He's a mismatch. When you go three wide, teams can counter with the nickel. This isn't possible when you trot out two tight ends and a full back and then shift one TE into the slot or out wide.

Hernandez adds nothing as far as surprise goes. Everyone knows hes a WR. Gronkowski is slower, stronger, just as good of a receiver and leagues ahead at blocking. They both create huge mismatches, but Gronkowski is by far the better talent.Also:Gronk, 6'6" 265Aaron, 6'1" 245

If Hernandez is classified as a tight end and you can't see the advantage of him being used like a wide receiver, I don't know what to tell you.

I dont know what point your trying to make, but it doesnt exist. Anything you could say for Hernandez is also true for Gronkowski, except speed. The opposite is not the case. Hernandez: 4.58 40 yd, 33" vertGronkowski: 4.65 40 yd, 33" vertIf you've seen both of them play at all, you would automatically see that its not even close if youre comparing the two. Gronk is just as good a pass catcher and has far more utility (completely ignoring that he physically dominates Aaron).If the point you are trying to make were true, why wouldnt every team in the NFL take a big goofy WR and put him in as a TE. TE is one of the toughest positions in football to play.

Not sure what either players vertical jump at the combine proves. And if every "big goofy WR" could slide over to TE and put up 600 yards and six touchdowns in 14 games as a rookie teams would do that. Hernandez is a lot more than just a big goofy WR. Not sure if you're a Gronk owner, or if you don't like him for whatever reason but you're absolutely selling Hernandez short. Anyone that has seen him play knows he's a matchup nightmare. Gronk is a monster, but Hernandez possesses run after the catch ability that Gronkowski simply doesn't have. They compliment each other extremely well. I still think that the Pats best package utilizes both of them.

 

[Lash]

I still see Gronk being more valuable in either format. Once the regular season starts I see Rob getting more snaps as the Pats utilize more 3 wide sets with one TE. I also look for him to get the red zone calls as well. We will see, I might have to end up rostering both of them and see who emerges - hopefully this isn't a headache between the two like it was last year.

have you watched NE WR?NE will be 2TE most of game IMO

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

In one of my keeper leagues I keep Graham 17/hernandez 18 and essentially will now ignore the TE value at the end of this draft....

 

[SproutDaddy]

He outscored Gronkowski heads up and PPG.

This really caught my attention. I was not aware of this and it really raised my eyebrow. I may have to reassess my Hernandez ranking. Thank you.

This isn't true in any of the leagues I played in. All 3 of my dynasty leagues Gronk outtscored him.

 

[KeithKow]

I don't see where anyone has mentioned the preseason stats yet.{Yeah, it's just preseason, but...}Player No Yds Avg Long TDAaron Hernandez 14 156 11.1 20 1Rob Gronkowski 1 7 7.0 7 0

This was a point I was about to make RE: preseason stats. I know, I know...it's only the preseason. However, I do feel if trends in the preseason vs. single game heroes translates into the regular season. To further elucidate, here are preseason stats of 4 sleeper/mid-round TE's this year:Hernandez:14 rec (17 targets)/152 yds/0 TD - 3 games, 5.7 targets per game, 82.4% completion percentageGronk:1 rec (3 targets)/7 yds/0 TD - 2 games, 3.5 targets per game, 33.3% completion percentageGraham:7 rec (11 targets)/103 yds/0 TD- 3 games, 3.7 targets per game, 63.6% completion percentageKendricks:8 rec (10 targets)/82 yds/2 TD - 3 games, 5 targets per game, 80% completion percentageThis has certainly swayed me towards taking Hernandez over Gronkowski. I love Gronk, but the fact is that Hernandez is a prime target in the pre-season. He was one of the youngest players in the NFL last year, and has now had time to mature. Sure, there are multiple targets in NE, but there are in NO as well. As someone mentione, Hernandez actually had more receptions and yards than Gronk last year, although fewer TDs. He was also hurt for the last few games. I love both, I think it may be a headache, but in PPR leagues having Hernandez on board as essentially an extra WR in a high-powered offense in place of a TE seems like a good deal to me.I do like Kendricks' potential as well, especially given these stats, however the only thing holding him back for me is the rookie status and unknown factor. Hopefully he will go undrafted (12 team league, only 14 rounds to keep an acitive WW) and I can keep on eye on him on the WW.

 

[Sake-Bombers]

I get the sense that everyone falling in love with Hernandez did not follow him closely last year. I know I had him last year and thete's no way I'm going after him this year. He'd spend majority of games in second half of season not even on the field. Everyone's sort of rewritten that as "he was hurt," but what I saw was when the Pats wanted to run, he was on sidelines.

I guess the question is, how many of last year's Hernandez owners are buying him this year? I know I'm not.

 

[RUSF18]

I get the sense that everyone falling in love with Hernandez did not follow him closely last year. I know I had him last year and thete's no way I'm going after him this year. He'd spend majority of games in second half of season not even on the field. Everyone's sort of rewritten that as "he was hurt," but what I saw was when the Pats wanted to run, he was on sidelines.I guess the question is, how many of last year's Hernandez owners are buying him this year? I know I'm not.

I'm not. Bought Gronk instead (backing up Graham).

 

[TheFanatic]

I don't see where anyone has mentioned the preseason stats yet.{Yeah, it's just preseason, but...}Player No Yds Avg Long TDAaron Hernandez 14 156 11.1 20 1Rob Gronkowski 1 7 7.0 7 0

This was a point I was about to make RE: preseason stats. I know, I know...it's only the preseason. However, I do feel if trends in the preseason vs. single game heroes translates into the regular season. To further elucidate, here are preseason stats of 4 sleeper/mid-round TE's this year:Hernandez:14 rec (17 targets)/152 yds/0 TD - 3 games, 5.7 targets per game, 82.4% completion percentageGronk:1 rec (3 targets)/7 yds/0 TD - 2 games, 3.5 targets per game, 33.3% completion percentageGraham:7 rec (11 targets)/103 yds/0 TD- 3 games, 3.7 targets per game, 63.6% completion percentageKendricks:8 rec (10 targets)/82 yds/2 TD - 3 games, 5 targets per game, 80% completion percentageThis has certainly swayed me towards taking Hernandez over Gronkowski. I love Gronk, but the fact is that Hernandez is a prime target in the pre-season. He was one of the youngest players in the NFL last year, and has now had time to mature. Sure, there are multiple targets in NE, but there are in NO as well. As someone mentione, Hernandez actually had more receptions and yards than Gronk last year, although fewer TDs. He was also hurt for the last few games. I love both, I think it may be a headache, but in PPR leagues having Hernandez on board as essentially an extra WR in a high-powered offense in place of a TE seems like a good deal to me.I do like Kendricks' potential as well, especially given these stats, however the only thing holding him back for me is the rookie status and unknown factor. Hopefully he will go undrafted (12 team league, only 14 rounds to keep an acitive WW) and I can keep on eye on him on the WW.

I see the overwhelming use of Hernandez in the preseason and am assuming that Gronk is going way outscore the guy this year. It's a classic bait and switch by Belichek. Give opposing teams lots of film on Hernandez and then decoy Hernandez...

 

[LawFitz]

He outscored Gronkowski heads up and PPG.

This really caught my attention. I was not aware of this and it really raised my eyebrow. I may have to reassess my Hernandez ranking. Thank you.

This isn't true in any of the leagues I played in. All 3 of my dynasty leagues Gronk outtscored him.

Sabertooth, care to respond to this?

 

[Thanatos]

I guess the question is, how many of last year's Hernandez owners are buying him this year? I know I'm not.

Same here. I picked him up off the WW fairly early last year and played him alot. His numbers at the end of the year were fairly deceptive. If I had to sum it up, I'd call it feast or famine. He either went off or he left me high and dry. I'd rather have someone who gives me some fairly consistent production on a week to week basis rather than 24 points one week followed by 3 stinkers.Drafted Graham in the 8th and am sitting on Kendricks with a late round flyer instead this year.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

I see the overwhelming use of Hernandez in the preseason and am assuming that Gronk is going way outscore the guy this year. It's a classic bait and switch by Belichek. Give opposing teams lots of film on Hernandez and then decoy Hernandez...

Since everyone expects Gronk to be the red zone guy, it's not like the film on Hernandez won't be useful.I have drafted him (over Gronk) albeit as a back-up. If I'm wrong whatever, he looks too good to be used strictly as a smokescreen.

 

[Possum]

I dont know about that losing snaps thing for Hernandez. If Im the Pats, Id much rather go out there with Branch/Welker/Gronk/Hernandez than Branch/Welker/Ocho/Gronk. Better options and gives the D more matchup problemsProof is in the pudding...that passing offense was pretty much impossible to defend last year

+1

I dont think Hernandez will lose snaps, but he still wont approach Gronks snapcount. This is offset of course by the double TE formations and the fact that Gronkowski is much better blocker. The Pats balance their team very well. Both TEs are great, but Gronk is a man.

I don't care if Hernandez doesn't get to the same number of snaps as Gronkowski, though - I think he'll get a lot more targets in the passing game. Brady's been throwing to him like crazy this preseason and he leads the NFL in receptions right now. I know it's just preseason, but I think he's too athletic and too talented for the Pats to be able to afford to not use him a lot this year. Gronkowski's a great mismatch in the red zone, but Hernandez can beat defenses all over the field.

 

[massraider]

I get the sense that everyone falling in love with Hernandez did not follow him closely last year. I know I had him last year and thete's no way I'm going after him this year. He'd spend majority of games in second half of season not even on the field. Everyone's sort of rewritten that as "he was hurt," but what I saw was when the Pats wanted to run, he was on sidelines.I guess the question is, how many of last year's Hernandez owners are buying him this year? I know I'm not.

I'm not. Bought Gronk instead (backing up Graham).

The above seems like the perfect recipe for "I chose the wrong guy every week" syndrome.

 

[Sabertooth]

He outscored Gronkowski heads up and PPG.

This really caught my attention. I was not aware of this and it really raised my eyebrow. I may have to reassess my Hernandez ranking. Thank you.

This isn't true in any of the leagues I played in. All 3 of my dynasty leagues Gronk outtscored him.

Sabertooth, care to respond to this?

I don't know? Maybe he has different scoring than I do. I have Hernandez leading in points Weeks 1-16 (146-135). I don't think we have any funny scoring rules or anything. MFL doesn't include Week 17 as our season is done then.

 

[LawFitz]

He outscored Gronkowski heads up and PPG.

This really caught my attention. I was not aware of this and it really raised my eyebrow. I may have to reassess my Hernandez ranking. Thank you.

This isn't true in any of the leagues I played in. All 3 of my dynasty leagues Gronk outtscored him.

Sabertooth, care to respond to this?

I don't know? Maybe he has different scoring than I do. I have Hernandez leading in points Weeks 1-16 (146-135). I don't think we have any funny scoring rules or anything. MFL doesn't include Week 17 as our season is done then.

What is your scoring format?

 

[massraider]

Hernandez outscored Gronk 143-130 in my PPR league. In week 17, Gronk had 6-100 and a TD, so there's the difference.

Amazed that people have so much insight into the mind of Belichick. I think a lot of people are kidding themselves. I don't believe in ignoring preseason, you can learn a lot. But I do believe in ignoring target #'s. There are just too many reasons for a player to have a bunch of looks in a meaningless game for us to be sure it means anything. Derek Hagan caught 6 balls for Oakland in the Saints game, is anyone projecting 100 catches?

I think there are way too many weapons on both these teams for these 3 guys to become true studs. Jimmy Graham looks nice, but for him to reach these heights people are talking about, Drew Brees is going to have to throw less to his WRs. Seems to me like throwing to those WRs has been working out thus far.

 

[Vision6]

I think the eyeball test reigns supreme when measuring Preseason performance.

Hernandez passes with flying colors, he's a match-up nightmare out there and impressive after the catch

 

[LawFitz]

My opinion of Hernandez has inflated considerably after reading this thread to this point. But still not enough to value him over Kendricks, who is probably also available in leagues where Hernandez is sitting on the wire.

I am sitting naked with just Kendricks on my team, so I may have to grab Hernandez as insurance. I just hate carrying two TEs.

And as has been mentioned a few times now, the Pats' shifting offensive focal point will likely be stomach-turning all season. Add to that Belicheck's handling of the injury report and it seems like a recipe that will require a lot of pepto.

 

[Possum]

Amazed that people have so much insight into the mind of Belichick. I think a lot of people are kidding themselves. I don't believe in ignoring preseason, you can learn a lot. But I do believe in ignoring target #'s.

I'm not a big believer in preseason numbers either, but what I've seen so far is a guy who looks like the Pats' second-best receiver after Welker. There was one play he made early against Detroit where he caught a short pass on third and long and ran through half the defense to turn it into a big play - a lot of WRs couldn't make that play.

think there are way too many weapons on both these teams for these 3 guys to become true studs. Jimmy Graham looks nice, but for him to reach these heights people are talking about, Drew Brees is going to have to throw less to his WRs. Seems to me like throwing to those WRs has been working out thus far.

I agree there are a lot of weapons, but if I'm right then Hernandez is going to be one of the ones they use more often. He's in a great passing offense with a great QB and a coach who knows how to recognize and exploit matchups, and I think he's going to be a really good value.

 

[Run It Up]

Lol, this is hilarious imo. Barring injury there is no way Gronk or Hernandez finish #2 in receptions or receiving yards to Ocho.

People can take what they want from the preseason, its not gonna change at all that Gronkowski is still the better TE, no one has argued he is a better receiver than Hernandez, nor should they. But IMO Hernandez is no better than Gronkowski as far as running routes, catching balls or creating miss matches. Gronkowski is a much bigger target, that is slightly slower than Aaron, what little difference they have after they catch is almost negligible when you watch Gronkowski just run through them.

Everyone forgets to mention that at the beginning of the season last year, Randy Moss drew double coverage every game, you can see it in practically every big gain from Hernandez, not knocking his abilities, just saying.

Excuse the poor sound quality, but the video quality is good enough. Highlights from about 3/4 the way through last year of Gronkowski.

Highlights

Show of skill at:

0:20 - Beast mode

0:39 - Doesnt need to jump very high when you are an entire foot taller than the defender

0:53 - Swims past the line and under the secondary, another great play

1:00 - In traffic

1:32 - Missmatches, Missmatches everywhere

 

[David Yudkin]

My opinion of Hernandez has inflated considerably after reading this thread to this point. But still not enough to value him over Kendricks, who is probably also available in leagues where Hernandez is sitting on the wire.I am sitting naked with just Kendricks on my team, so I may have to grab Hernandez as insurance. I just hate carrying two TEs. And as has been mentioned a few times now, the Pats' shifting offensive focal point will likely be stomach-turning all season. Add to that Belicheck's handling of the injury report and it seems like a recipe that will require a lot of pepto.

Hernandez is in line for a 70-900-5 season. That's the pace he was on the first half of last year before he got hurt. At that point, Gronk had only 14 receptions through 8 games. Hernandez should have a better season than Ochocinco, but someone seemed to think that was not possible for some reason. Hernandez is a WR playing as a TE. He should be the second most targetted Pats receiver after Welker this year.

 

[TheFanatic]

Lol, this is hilarious imo. Barring injury there is no way Gronk or Hernandez finish #2 in receptions or receiving yards to Ocho.

People can take what they want from the preseason, its not gonna change at all that Gronkowski is still the better TE, no one has argued he is a better receiver than Hernandez, nor should they. But IMO Hernandez is no better than Gronkowski as far as running routes, catching balls or creating miss matches. Gronkowski is a much bigger target, that is slightly slower than Aaron, what little difference they have after they catch is almost negligible when you watch Gronkowski just run through them.

Everyone forgets to mention that at the beginning of the season last year, Randy Moss drew double coverage every game, you can see it in practically every big gain from Hernandez, not knocking his abilities, just saying.

Excuse the poor sound quality, but the video quality is good enough. Highlights from about 3/4 the way through last year of Gronkowski.

Highlights

Show of skill at:

0:20 - Beast mode

0:39 - Doesnt need to jump very high when you are an entire foot taller than the defender

0:53 - Swims past the line and under the secondary, another great play

1:00 - In traffic

1:32 - Missmatches, Missmatches everywhere

Uh, I'm pretty sure Ocho is not going to lead the team I catches so that sort of negates the rest of your analysis in my book...

 

[KeithKow]

I get the sense that everyone falling in love with Hernandez did not follow him closely last year. I know I had him last year and thete's no way I'm going after him this year. He'd spend majority of games in second half of season not even on the field. Everyone's sort of rewritten that as "he was hurt," but what I saw was when the Pats wanted to run, he was on sidelines.I guess the question is, how many of last year's Hernandez owners are buying him this year? I know I'm not.

Couldn't be more wrong....I'm a 20+ year Pats season ticket holder and I had him on my team. I watched every game last year. Yes, he was erratic in 2010 and when they went with more of a running set he was off the field with Gronk in his place. But he was also a 20 year old rookie at the time, and has now had a year in the system. No, he is not the prototype TE that Gronk is, not many are. But that is precisely the point - he is more of a highly-targeted WR on a high scoring offense that you can use in place of a TE on your team. He is often on the field at the same time as Gronkowski, except in the slot, and Bill will use him as a mismatch against slower LBs.The notion that Belichick is using the preseason as a smokescreen is ridiculous. Have you noticed that Wes Welker also has a ton of targets in the preseason....is that a smoke screen? Don't think so. Belichick does many things, but he does not screw around like that.Finally, Ochocinco is not going to cut into his touches any more than Deion Branch did. I'm not saying that he is going to outscore Gates or Clark. I am saying that he is basically a slot WR that you can place in your TE spot, and you can draft him in double digit rounds. If you don't see that as value, you're crazy.

 

[KeithKow]

My opinion of Hernandez has inflated considerably after reading this thread to this point. But still not enough to value him over Kendricks, who is probably also available in leagues where Hernandez is sitting on the wire.I am sitting naked with just Kendricks on my team, so I may have to grab Hernandez as insurance. I just hate carrying two TEs. And as has been mentioned a few times now, the Pats' shifting offensive focal point will likely be stomach-turning all season. Add to that Belicheck's handling of the injury report and it seems like a recipe that will require a lot of pepto.

Hernandez is in line for a 70-900-5 season. That's the pace he was on the first half of last year before he got hurt. At that point, Gronk had only 14 receptions through 8 games. Hernandez should have a better season than Ochocinco, but someone seemed to think that was not possible for some reason. Hernandez is a WR playing as a TE. He should be the second most targetted Pats receiver after Welker this year.

Yes, yes, and yes. As a fellow Pats fan, I couldn't agree more.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I get the sense that everyone falling in love with Hernandez did not follow him closely last year. I know I had him last year and thete's no way I'm going after him this year. He'd spend majority of games in second half of season not even on the field. Everyone's sort of rewritten that as "he was hurt," but what I saw was when the Pats wanted to run, he was on sidelines.I guess the question is, how many of last year's Hernandez owners are buying him this year? I know I'm not.

Couldn't be more wrong....I'm a 20+ year Pats season ticket holder and I had him on my team. I watched every game last year. Yes, he was erratic in 2010 and when they went with more of a running set he was off the field with Gronk in his place. But he was also a 20 year old rookie at the time, and has now had a year in the system. No, he is not the prototype TE that Gronk is, not many are. But that is precisely the point - he is more of a highly-targeted WR on a high scoring offense that you can use in place of a TE on your team. He is often on the field at the same time as Gronkowski, except in the slot, and Bill will use him as a mismatch against slower LBs.The notion that Belichick is using the preseason as a smokescreen is ridiculous. Have you noticed that Wes Welker also has a ton of targets in the preseason....is that a smoke screen? Don't think so. Belichick does many things, but he does not screw around like that.Finally, Ochocinco is not going to cut into his touches any more than Deion Branch did. I'm not saying that he is going to outscore Gates or Clark. I am saying that he is basically a slot WR that you can place in your TE spot, and you can draft him in double digit rounds. If you don't see that as value, you're crazy.

I trust Yudkin and Pats homers more than guys who happen to draft Ocho and are still trying to talk themselves into feeling good about their pick.

 

[The Gunslinger]

The most overlooked part of this argument is that last year, Hernandez sat in running situations because Gronk was better at blocking. The Patriots released last years primary run blocking TE and Gronk will now be on the field in every set. However, Hernandez will now also receive a huge bump in total snaps due to being the team's move TE.

The Patriots never stop scoring. IMO they both will be top 10 TE's but Hernadez has a shot at being #1 TE if New England scares 2008 effectiveness. Based on the last 8 games last year when Brady threw 24 td's and no int's, I'd say it looks pretty good.

Gronk-45 catches 657 yards 8 Td's

Hernandez- 81 catches 896 yards 7 td's

 

[KeithKow]

The most overlooked part of this argument is that last year, Hernandez sat in running situations because Gronk was better at blocking. The Patriots released last years primary run blocking TE and Gronk will now be on the field in every set. However, Hernandez will now also receive a huge bump in total snaps due to being the team's move TE.The Patriots never stop scoring. IMO they both will be top 10 TE's but Hernadez has a shot at being #1 TE if New England scares 2008 effectiveness. Based on the last 8 games last year when Brady threw 24 td's and no int's, I'd say it looks pretty good. Gronk-45 catches 657 yards 8 Td'sHernandez- 81 catches 896 yards 7 td's

Excellent point RE: loss of Alge Crumpler, who was the primary blocking TE when they were in 2 or even sometimes 3 TE sets (with AH, Gronk, and Crumpler on field). Gronk likely will see more blocking duties this season. However, UDFA Will Yeatman is a big body and has been having a good training camp - if he makes the team (which is looking more likely than not), he will share some of these blocking duties so Gronk will not be completely tied up.

 

[tombonneau]

Big time Pats homer here and Gronk is the play. I honestly think he improves on last years 10 TDs. I put him in the 12 range.

He was uncoverable in camp by every report, the old man among boys cliche trotted out more than once. He got a bit dinged and was then limited which is reflected in his lack of preseason stats and Hernandez's big numbers.

Hernandez will have the occasional big game but give me the TE who I know is scoring at least once every 1.5 games any day of the week.

 

[Sake-Bombers]

I get the sense that everyone falling in love with Hernandez did not follow him closely last year. I know I had him last year and thete's no way I'm going after him this year. He'd spend majority of games in second half of season not even on the field. Everyone's sort of rewritten that as "he was hurt," but what I saw was when the Pats wanted to run, he was on sidelines.I guess the question is, how many of last year's Hernandez owners are buying him this year? I know I'm not.

Couldn't be more wrong....I'm a 20+ year Pats season ticket holder and I had him on my team. I watched every game last year. Yes, he was erratic in 2010 and when they went with more of a running set he was off the field with Gronk in his place. But he was also a 20 year old rookie at the time, and has now had a year in the system. No, he is not the prototype TE that Gronk is, not many are. But that is precisely the point - he is more of a highly-targeted WR on a high scoring offense that you can use in place of a TE on your team. He is often on the field at the same time as Gronkowski, except in the slot, and Bill will use him as a mismatch against slower LBs.The notion that Belichick is using the preseason as a smokescreen is ridiculous. Have you noticed that Wes Welker also has a ton of targets in the preseason....is that a smoke screen? Don't think so. Belichick does many things, but he does not screw around like that.Finally, Ochocinco is not going to cut into his touches any more than Deion Branch did. I'm not saying that he is going to outscore Gates or Clark. I am saying that he is basically a slot WR that you can place in your TE spot, and you can draft him in double digit rounds. If you don't see that as value, you're crazy.

I trust Yudkin and Pats homers more than guys who happen to draft Ocho and are still trying to talk themselves into feeling good about their pick.

Actually not sure what I was wrong about here. I think you agreed he was off the field in running situations.All I'm saying is that many of the Hernandez love this year seems to be coming from folks who didn't follow him and Gronk closely last year. I absolutely value the opinion of a season ticket holder and Yudkin. It's a great response to my question. But the fact is, Hernandez wasn't on the field as much as Gronk last year. And that can be frustrating if you need him to score you points.He's having a phenomenal preseason. He's a beast athletically. He is a great bet if the price is right. But me personally, I'd avoid him, because he has such swing and miss potential. And at least one other former Hernandez owner agreed with me.

 

[KeithKow]

I get the sense that everyone falling in love with Hernandez did not follow him closely last year. I know I had him last year and thete's no way I'm going after him this year. He'd spend majority of games in second half of season not even on the field. Everyone's sort of rewritten that as "he was hurt," but what I saw was when the Pats wanted to run, he was on sidelines.I guess the question is, how many of last year's Hernandez owners are buying him this year? I know I'm not.

Couldn't be more wrong....I'm a 20+ year Pats season ticket holder and I had him on my team. I watched every game last year. Yes, he was erratic in 2010 and when they went with more of a running set he was off the field with Gronk in his place. But he was also a 20 year old rookie at the time, and has now had a year in the system. No, he is not the prototype TE that Gronk is, not many are. But that is precisely the point - he is more of a highly-targeted WR on a high scoring offense that you can use in place of a TE on your team. He is often on the field at the same time as Gronkowski, except in the slot, and Bill will use him as a mismatch against slower LBs.The notion that Belichick is using the preseason as a smokescreen is ridiculous. Have you noticed that Wes Welker also has a ton of targets in the preseason....is that a smoke screen? Don't think so. Belichick does many things, but he does not screw around like that.Finally, Ochocinco is not going to cut into his touches any more than Deion Branch did. I'm not saying that he is going to outscore Gates or Clark. I am saying that he is basically a slot WR that you can place in your TE spot, and you can draft him in double digit rounds. If you don't see that as value, you're crazy.

I trust Yudkin and Pats homers more than guys who happen to draft Ocho and are still trying to talk themselves into feeling good about their pick.

Actually not sure what I was wrong about here. I think you agreed he was off the field in running situations.All I'm saying is that many of the Hernandez love this year seems to be coming from folks who didn't follow him and Gronk closely last year. I absolutely value the opinion of a season ticket holder and Yudkin. It's a great response to my question. But the fact is, Hernandez wasn't on the field as much as Gronk last year. And that can be frustrating if you need him to score you points.He's having a phenomenal preseason. He's a beast athletically. He is a great bet if the price is right. But me personally, I'd avoid him, because he has such swing and miss potential. And at least one other former Hernandez owner agreed with me.

Sorry, points very well taken. Meant you couldn't be more wrong about not following closely, not that you were off base with your view.