About offensive linemen.. (1 Viewer)

[ren hoek]

It's something I've been meaning to do for a couple of years now, and that is to make a spreadsheet of my own personal rankings for offensive players. But anyways, to the point-

I noticed last year that FBG had ranked each of the 32 offensive lines team-by-team. What factors went into making those rankings? How can someone go about evaluating the individual turnover that happens every year to (most) offensive lines? There will be the obvious frontliners like KC, Cincinnati and Chicago next year, but what about the more muddled situations like in Arizona and Tampa Bay?

For example, take Edgerrin James. There's little doubt (especially given the mega-contract he pulled in during the off-season) that he is playing in a RB-friendly system under one of the best offensive-minded coaches in the league, and along side some very skilled position players to boot.

But in any case, if James is running behind exactly the same quality of line that the Cardinals fielded last year, I'd have a hard time investing anything higher than a mid to late 3rd round pick on him. And yet, if he's running behind a good run-blocking line, he instantly becomes a mid to late first-rounder, quite possibly higher than that.

In summation, there's a lot of offensive production, whether it be passing or running, that hinges on the quality of the line supporting the player in question. I feel very adept at analyzing a position player's statistics and predicting their future output (assuming their offensive line remains the same), but I'm virtually clueless when it comes to analyzing a change in offensive line personnel. If anybody (JB, Bob M., Wood, whomever) that knows more than me could give some advice in evaluating the quality of an offensive line, I'd be very appreciative.

 

[Rovers]

The O line.... one of my favorite topics, in part, for some of the reasons you mention. An accurate assessment of all of the NFL teams' offensive lines isn't all that easy to do, however. Perhaps more than any other NFL position, O linemen often take a long time to develop. A lot of players come out of college without the strength or technique required in the NFL to be effective drive blockers.

Because of that, I watch which teams have O lines that might be coming into their own. Looking at the Cards, since you mentioned them....

LT- Leonard Davis- 6'6", 366- Davis enters his sixth year, and is one of, or maybe the biggest LT's in the NFL. He is entering his prime for LT's. Davis isn't the reason Arizona's O line has been a bad run blocking team.

LG- Reggie Wells- 6'4", 320- Wells was the occassional starter at RT , but switches to LG this year. Entering his 4th year, despite the position change, he should be coming into his own, and running to the left side suddenly becomes a possibilty.

C- Alex Stepanovich- 6'4", 304- Going into his third year in the NFL, he also will improve this year, being a part of the recent run of solid NFL caliber ex-Ohio State centers.

RG- Milford Brown- 6'4", 331- Perhaps the weakest link, he was a backup for Houston for three years, and finally got some starts last year, his fourth in the NFL. If he couldn't crack the Texan's O line to start......

RT- Oliver Ross- 6'4", 334- Aquired from Pittsburgh before the 2005 season, he suffered through some injuries, which added to the poor Arizona rush offense. If Ross is healthy, he's a very solid RT.

There isn't much depth on the Cards O line, but if they stay healthy, they should be pretty good. This may be the biggest O line in the NFL at an average of 330 pounds each. Big guys that are used to playing in the heat in Arizona should be able to wear down defenses in the second half. This unit should be coming into it's own this year. In fact, they should be able to open holes for Edge, but they don't have the speed to get outside.... which might hurt James some. Edge is a pretty good outside RB. I think the Cards' O line is better suited to a power back, but James still has the speed to hit holes when they appear.

That is my take on the Arizona O line at this point in time. The guys here at FBG's do a nice job of O line analysis, and is one of my resources. I don't analyse every NFL team this way.... no need to do that for teams like KC and Pittsburgh, but Arizona is a team I'll watch closely before my redraft leagues start up. I start with base info, like this, and pay attention to the preseason games, and for a team like AZ, I'll lurk on their message boards too.... some message board homers can offer solid insight, if you know how to cull through posts.

Lastly, I use local newspaper reports and the blogger here. For some teams, and Arizona is a great example, I like to have my own rating system and it does affect where I might rank an RB like Edge this year. Baltimore is another O line I want to look at closely. Lewis' problems with the ankle were compounded by poor O line blocking last year. I haven't done any work on Baltimore yet, but I certainly will.

I don't know if this helps any..... but a big part on my draft strategies are based on things like this.... stuff my league mates aren't doing. It doesn't always work out in the crapshoot that is FF draft day, but I find it advantageous to include this sort of research, and adjust my player rankings accordingly.

 

[Rovers]

The lack of posts in thread proves something to me..... most FF players don't pay much attention to NFL teams' offensive line situations. That is exactly why I DO spend time researching this area.... very few others are paying attention. It seems most people go from one year to the next thinking that any particular teams' O line situation will remain unchanged. Most FF'ers are satisfied with going by the rep say, an Arizona has (had).... bad.

I would venture to say that many will drop Edge in their rankings because the Cards' O line is bad.... but it isn't all that bad, as a little research would show. The Colts' O line wasn't filled with dominant run blocking linemen. They were quick.... not powerful. The real trick for Denny Green is to use Edge inside, where these beefy boys can makes running lanes for him.

The O line.... a forgotten part of building a draft board..... which is why it makes sense for me to pay attention to it.... no one else does, much.

 

[Bri]

The lack of posts in thread proves something to me..... most FF players don't pay much attention to NFL teams' offensive line situations.

I spent quite some time giving OL grades and pretending I was a scout(as we all do) and after all my efforts do ya know what matterred? Continuity! Even what could be considerred a lesser OL one year, if they stayed together, they wound up being productive. I kept trying but it was a useless fight. More often than not, in this age of FA, continuity is what matters.

If ya get some time, give it a shot yourself.

 

[trader jake]

i respect the passion and work that many put into ranking offensive lines...i'm not sure it's much different than ranking K's though - very little accuracy for very little benefit

now if you want to tell me that just last year the packers lost both starting guards to free agency and you forcast a fall in numbers for the green bay starters...cool. most of the time a correlation between a poor offensive line and poor fantasy numbers for fantasy purposes seems to occur after the fact when it isn't that helpful imo

i'm open to reading any forcasts for the 2006 season though

 

[ren hoek]

Rovers, thanks for your insightful post about the Cardinals' offensive line above. I also agree that offensive line play is a very unheralded and yet critical part of fantasy football.

I have to say though, I'm disappointed that not many people seem to take an interest in evaluating this section of fantasy. The only reliable evaluation it seems we can make on offensive lines in the NFL is to first look at continuity, and then their position players' production from the year before. Thanks to everyone who offered some info here.

 

[Spartans Rule]

The lack of posts in thread proves something to me..... most FF players don't pay much attention to NFL teams' offensive line situations.

I spent quite some time giving OL grades and pretending I was a scout(as we all do) and after all my efforts do ya know what matterred? Continuity! Even what could be considerred a lesser OL one year, if they stayed together, they wound up being productive. I kept trying but it was a useless fight. More often than not, in this age of FA, continuity is what matters.

If ya get some time, give it a shot yourself.

IMO, continuity doesn't mean anything in and of itself. It's more the effect of a good OL rather than the cause. Teams keep players that are working out and get rid of ones that aren't. If a team keeps a lesser OL together, it probably sees the players improving in the future.It could still be useful to look at, but if a line like the Texans or Lions stayed completely intact after last year, they would still suck.

 

[Spartans Rule]

If anybody (JB, Bob M., Wood, whomever) that knows more than me could give some advice in evaluating the quality of an offensive line, I'd be very appreciative.

Chris Smith is the FBG offensive line guru. He does the rankings and knows the individual players.I think he has a lot more knowledge of OL than he currently shares, but as you said, the interest level just doesn't seem to be there.

 

[Rovers]

i respect the passion and work that many put into ranking offensive lines...i'm not sure it's much different than ranking K's though - very little accuracy for very little benefit

now if you want to tell me that just last year the packers lost both starting guards to free agency and you forcast a fall in numbers for the green bay starters...cool. most of the time a correlation between a poor offensive line and poor fantasy numbers for fantasy purposes seems to occur after the fact when it isn't that helpful imo

i'm open to reading any forcasts for the 2006 season though

In general, you might be right, that spending a lot of time researching O lines brings in little return for the time investment.... however....There are several teams I really want to take a hard look at. Miami, because of Brown, Baltimore because of Lewis, Arizona, Edge, Raiders, Jordan, StL, Jackson, Houston, DD.

All of these teams have at least several things in common:

1. An RB who is a potential redraft first rounder.

2. Weaknesses in the o line last year, either due to injuries or sub par player perfomances.

3. New, key personnel, whether it's a new QB, HC, OC or other impact player.

I would not draft Edge as high this year as I did last year, but I won't drop him as significantly as others might.... I think the Cards O line is now at least an average unit. GB goes to zone blocking..... a definite negative for me. The system works very well in Denver and Atlanta, but rarely ever the first year it's used. Not that I like any GB RB's to begin with, but this makes them undraftable.

StL really improved their O line depth this year, which makes Jackson even more attractive to me with a new, less run and gun HC. That moves him up a couple of spots on my rankings. If I like what I see in my Ravens O line analisys, Lewis will get a bump. He had little run blocking in front of him last year, and was likely not fully healthy either.

As an aside, evaluating the o lines also helps with my QB rankings too. As long as Pettigout is the Giants' LT, I don't much like Eli's chances of staying healthy, or at the very least, expect to see him rushed to throw a lot this year.

Maybe I'm just full of crap, and just like doing this!

 

[BoltBacker]

The lack of posts in thread proves something to me..... most FF players don't pay much attention to NFL teams' offensive line situations. That is exactly why I DO spend time researching this area.... very few others are paying attention. It seems most people go from one year to the next thinking that any particular teams' O line situation will remain unchanged. Most FF'ers are satisfied with going by the rep say, an Arizona has (had).... bad. I would venture to say that many will drop Edge in their rankings because the Cards' O line is bad.... but it isn't all that bad, as a little research would show.

I enjoyed your analysis but am less than convinced by your conclusions.To recap...

LT Davis - Returns as the most solid lineman from last season.... which was a pretty bad group. Change in '06: little.

LG Wells - Learning a new position from last season and didn't play really well last season. He's big. Change '06: ?.

C Stepanovich - Went to Ohio St and this will be his third season. Change in '06: ?.

RG Brown - Couldn't start on the Texans, 'nuff said. Change in '06: probably worse.

RT Ross - Solid but injury prone. Change in '06: better IF healthy.

Depth: poor

... so it seems pretty bad to me. Any improvement are based on Brown/Wells/Stepanovich playing better than they've showed they can play up to this point and Ross proving he can stay healthy. All big "?"s to be sure.

I'm one of the people knocking Edge down several slots due in part because of the OL, in part because of the defense and in part because the QB's for ARZ are a veteran who can't avoid a pass rush and a rookie who will both need to be protected... more than likely with a RB staying in the backfield to block.

I think most FF'ers adjust their thoughts on a particular OL when there are signifigant upgrades/downgrades(for instance people reacted in a big way a year or two ago when GB lost both it's starting G's) but this does not appear to be such a case.

 

[Rovers]

The lack of posts in thread proves something to me..... most FF players don't pay much attention to NFL teams' offensive line situations. That is exactly why I DO spend time researching this area.... very few others are paying attention. It seems most people go from one year to the next thinking that any particular teams' O line situation will remain unchanged. Most FF'ers are satisfied with going by the rep say, an Arizona has (had).... bad. I would venture to say that many will drop Edge in their rankings because the Cards' O line is bad.... but it isn't all that bad, as a little research would show.

I enjoyed your analysis but am less than convinced by your conclusions.To recap...

LT Davis - Returns as the most solid lineman from last season.... which was a pretty bad group. Change in '06: little.

LG Wells - Learning a new position from last season and didn't play really well last season. He's big. Change '06: ?.

C Stepanovich - Went to Ohio St and this will be his third season. Change in '06: ?.

RG Brown - Couldn't start on the Texans, 'nuff said. Change in '06: probably worse.

RT Ross - Solid but injury prone. Change in '06: better IF healthy.

Depth: poor

... so it seems pretty bad to me. Any improvement are based on Brown/Wells/Stepanovich playing better than they've showed they can play up to this point and Ross proving he can stay healthy. All big "?"s to be sure.

I'm one of the people knocking Edge down several slots due in part because of the OL, in part because of the defense and in part because the QB's for ARZ are a veteran who can't avoid a pass rush and a rookie who will both need to be protected... more than likely with a RB staying in the backfield to block.

I think most FF'ers adjust their thoughts on a particular OL when there are signifigant upgrades/downgrades(for instance people reacted in a big way a year or two ago when GB lost both it's starting G's) but this does not appear to be such a case.

I think Wells is better suited as a guard, so if he makes a smooth transition, that should be a minor improvement. He also enters his fourth year. I expect a fairly substantial improvement on Stepanovich's play. Everyone talks about how important the LT is, but I think the center is equally, and possibly more important than a LT is to a team. Entering his third year, this is often when even highly touted O lineman come into their own in the NFL. Typically (and as far as I know in AZ) the center makes the O line blocking call. While injuries depleted the Jets O line last year, it was tripley compounded by Kendall's inabilty to make the O line blocking assignment calls. Stepanovich could become one of the league's better, if not elite centers this year.

Brown could be a problem.... I agree.

Ross is solid, and yes, has trouble staying on the field.

I see the AZ O line as improved, but somewhat risky with a lack of depth. Last year, they were a grade of perhaps C-, while right now I put this unit as a B-. (B would be average) If they had better depth, I'd make them a B. The fact that Stepanovich missed the first several games didnt help much.

So, with several players entering their prime as O linemen, I think there will be improvement. Most of how this line plays depends on Stepanovich.... and I think highly of him. They also drafted Latui in the second round, which provides some depth at both guard spots, in case of injury or poor performance. I see Latui as being a starter sooner rather than later.

 

[redCashion]

I like the discussion of OL as it applies to fantasy leagues. I own and run xpertsport.com, and we get a surprising number of requests each year for individual offensive lineman support within a league. We have the players in our database, but don't have any real means of scoring them. It would be great if some stat service would track things per Offensive Lineman like sack allowed, "pancakes", or whatever else but of course it still wouldn't reflect the true value of a player.

We do support OL as a unit, but the only really effective stat option is sacks allowed and yards per carry. And again, this isn't necessarily a good reflection on a OL unit since you are factoring in the effectiveness of players at other positions.

One guy asked me once if he could score individual OL as 1/5 of their team's average for the stats above, but that seemed like a really ugly solution.

 

[Pictus Cat]

We added sacks against QB to help account for OLine. Yards for other players account some. IDP can create a some need for the knowledge too. I understand how some think OLine is less bang for their research. I do it because I it's fun.