Accuscore question - NE vs Pittsburgh (1 Viewer)

[geneyus]

It appears I don't understand Accuscore as much as I thought I did. NE this week is ~1.5 pt favorite over Pittsburgh. When I was looking at the Accuscore preview they had NE winning 45% of the sims compared to Pittsburgh's 54%. See summar below.

"AccuScore is forecasting a close game with the New England Patriots winning 45% of simulations, and the Pittsburgh Steelers 54% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The New England Patriots commit fewer turnovers in 31% of simulations and they go on to win 70% when they take care of the ball. The Pittsburgh Steelers wins 67% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Tom Brady is averaging 295 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (40% chance) then he helps his team win 54%. Ben Roethlisberger is averaging 291 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (37% chance) then he helps his team win 62%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is PIT +1.5 --- Over/Under line is 52"

Can someone explain how NE is favored but win's a lower % of the sims? And in real life, NE owns Pittsburgh. That has to count for something right?

 

[David Yudkin]

The simulation has nothing to do with the betting line. If people are betting that the Pats will win, that has nothing to do with the numbers entered into the simulator based on 2011 game data.

Similarly, I do not think that there are any over rides coded into the simulation as to whether a certain team does very well against a specific opponent. Historically, when Brady plays the Pats have usually beaten the Steelers (career 6-1 record), but I doubt they factor that in. The current Pats' defense has been pretty bad, so that's what likely leads the simulator to pick the Steelers to win.