Adrian Peterson #1 RB, Chester #2 RB? (1 Viewer)

[kawaihae]

During an interview on the 7/22 "Drive Block" episode of the Audible, Doug Drinen suggested that, if you grab ADP as your #1 RB, then consider waiting until the 6th/7th to pick up Chester as your #2 RB. He said that it's a strategy that was discussed by David Yudkin during the Priest Holmes/Larry Johnson days of yesteryear, and was fairly successful.

His points in favor were that you build up a dominating rounds 2 through 5/6 with top WRs, QB and TE. Then, you are playing ADP and Chester as your two RBs, so, presumably, you are going to get a killer week from one of the two, even if the other doesn't perform as well. Also, if one of the two get hurt long term, then the other takes a huge step up in production.

Some negative thoughts in my mind were, even if one guy gets 150 yds and 2 TDs, getting a doughnut from the other sucks. Also, if one does get hurt, then your #3 RB (which presumably was drafted in the 7th or 8th round or beyond), then becomes your #2. That can seem pretty scary.

But, my follow up thought was that, with the rise in RBBC and the large amount of RB injuries that occur every year, late round RBs have an increased value now-a-days. Also, I've won many a week when one player has a bad game, as long as the others on my roster perform a high level.

So basically, does anyone have any info on this topic (personal experience, Yudkin's old articles, etc). I actually want to be talked into doing this.

---As background, I play in a league with 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, K, D and a flex that can be any position. Last year, I decided that I always seemed to reach and strike out for an early round RB #2, so I waited until the 6th to grab Freddy Taylor as my #2. I went on to win my league (which is pretty competitive) on the strength of my other players, and played a varied collection of RB 2s, like Kolby Smith, Chester Taylor, FT, and even Darius Walker.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I've been grabbing Taylor in the 7th whether I have ADP or not...guy got 1,000 total yds and 7 TD last year and he missed the beginning of the season.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

I've been grabbing Taylor in the 7th whether I have ADP or not...guy got 1,000 total yds and 7 TD last year and he missed the beginning of the season.

I've done the same thing in a couple leagues. If Chet's been there in 7-8 I've drafted him regardless of whether I own Peterson or not.If the Vikings run as much as I think they will, Taylor's probably going to have a great chance to be around RB20 even playing 2nd fiddle.

 

[nordstrom24]

I think it's a good idea, but you must have the #2 or #3 for this to work.

Are there other combinations that might work out for later round positions? I'm not so sure.

I'm drafting in the #7 slot in a ten team draft, and I'm predicting that Frank Gore will likely be my RB1, but am a little concerned that waiting until round 6 or 7 to draft my next RB will be leaving me extremely weak since in this league, RB's are gold.

I agree with MoP in that I've also targeted Chester Taylor later in drafts as well. I think even if you don't have ADP.

 

[habsfan]

It's a good strategy but one that requires the "alignment of the planets" so to speak (ADP + Chester + Minn supporting cast) and those planets obviously don't align every day.

 

[Itchy Amos]

I have the first pick in my draft and have given this some thought and have all but dismissed it.

Say I draft ADP with my first pick. When I come out of the 4-5 turn and dont have a second running back, my strategy will be immediately obvious to everyone. There is no way my league mates will let Taylor fall back to me. Someone would take him in round 6. If someone else were trying this strategy, I know I would steal Taylor from them because it would potentially ruin thier team. I would hold them hostage. That is not to say that there are not some serviceable running backs available, but they will all have huge questions marks and you will likely need to fill up your roster with running back scrubs hoping that one of them blew up for you.

If I did try this, and someone took Taylor before I could get him, I wouldnt draft a running back at the 6-7 turn. At that point, you might as well recognize that your second running back spot is going to be an issue. I would round out my roster and would probably take the first team defense. I would then spend the next 4-5 rounds picking up promising backups and rookies.

I think the only dependable way of working this strategy would be to draft a running back at the 4-5 turn and taking taylor at the 6-7 turn and then trading your second running back away to some team that drafted a WR or TE in round 5 or 6.

If you draft another running back in the 5th round, you stand a much better chance of getting Taylor in the 7th.

 

[stbugs]

I have the first pick in my draft and have given this some thought and have all but dismissed it.

Say I draft ADP with my first pick. When I come out of the 4-5 turn and dont have a second running back, my strategy will be immediately obvious to everyone. There is no way my league mates will let Taylor fall back to me. Someone would take him in round 6. If someone else were trying this strategy, I know I would steal Taylor from them because it would potentially ruin thier team. I would hold them hostage. That is not to say that there are not some serviceable running backs available, but they will all have huge questions marks and you will likely need to fill up your roster with running back scrubs hoping that one of them blew up for you.

If I did try this, and someone took Taylor before I could get him, I wouldnt draft a running back at the 6-7 turn. At that point, you might as well recognize that your second running back spot is going to be an issue. I would round out my roster and would probably take the first team defense. I would then spend the next 4-5 rounds picking up promising backups and rookies.

I think the only dependable way of working this strategy would be to draft a running back at the 4-5 turn and taking taylor at the 6-7 turn and then trading your second running back away to some team that drafted a WR or TE in round 5 or 6.

If you draft another running back in the 5th round, you stand a much better chance of getting Taylor in the 7th.

I don't understand this line of thinking. If you have no plans to use Chester, i.e. you already have 2 better RBs, wouldn't drafting him hurt you just as much? I know in the 6th/7th, I have pulled plenty of QBs/WRs/RBs over the years that have ended up being starters, so you are holding your own team hostage as much as his.I still don't ever see a draft where I take a guy that I know someone else would be targetting if he doesn't make sense for my own team. The only people benefitting are the teams between you and the other guy who now have at least 1 more serviceable player to draft that wouldn't have been there.

That said, I have drafted specific positions based on other teams needs (one league I am in drafts all starting positions before any wild card players can be selected) where I know that no one else can pick a QB until the next round so I take a RB/WR first and then a QB next before anyone can select a QB.

 

[Itchy Amos]

I have the first pick in my draft and have given this some thought and have all but dismissed it.

Say I draft ADP with my first pick. When I come out of the 4-5 turn and dont have a second running back, my strategy will be immediately obvious to everyone. There is no way my league mates will let Taylor fall back to me. Someone would take him in round 6. If someone else were trying this strategy, I know I would steal Taylor from them because it would potentially ruin thier team. I would hold them hostage. That is not to say that there are not some serviceable running backs available, but they will all have huge questions marks and you will likely need to fill up your roster with running back scrubs hoping that one of them blew up for you.

If I did try this, and someone took Taylor before I could get him, I wouldnt draft a running back at the 6-7 turn. At that point, you might as well recognize that your second running back spot is going to be an issue. I would round out my roster and would probably take the first team defense. I would then spend the next 4-5 rounds picking up promising backups and rookies.

I think the only dependable way of working this strategy would be to draft a running back at the 4-5 turn and taking taylor at the 6-7 turn and then trading your second running back away to some team that drafted a WR or TE in round 5 or 6.

If you draft another running back in the 5th round, you stand a much better chance of getting Taylor in the 7th.

I don't understand this line of thinking. If you have no plans to use Chester, i.e. you already have 2 better RBs, wouldn't drafting him hurt you just as much? I know in the 6th/7th, I have pulled plenty of QBs/WRs/RBs over the years that have ended up being starters, so you are holding your own team hostage as much as his.I still don't ever see a draft where I take a guy that I know someone else would be targetting if he doesn't make sense for my own team. The only people benefitting are the teams between you and the other guy who now have at least 1 more serviceable player to draft that wouldn't have been there.

That said, I have drafted specific positions based on other teams needs (one league I am in drafts all starting positions before any wild card players can be selected) where I know that no one else can pick a QB until the next round so I take a RB/WR first and then a QB next before anyone can select a QB.

What I didnt think I needed to say was that Taylor is generally considered to be a good running back in his own right. Last year he got 1,000 total yards himself. You could do much worse than Taylor as your RB3 in round 6. Judging by his average draft position, there are plenty of other people that agree with that line of thinking. If I were alone in thinking that Taylor was a quality back, there is no doubt that the people in my league would let me draft him and then laugh at my stupidity.In round 6, you have burned through all of the top players. It is usually the area where I am filling up on WR. I would be happy to pass up on Roddy White in the 6th and take Kevin Curtis in the 7th instead. There is really no difference in my mind between those players.

I am not a fan of handcuffing or taking backups to other people's studs unless they are going to provide a decent level of production in their own right.

 

[Team Legacy]

I have the first pick in my draft and have given this some thought and have all but dismissed it. Say I draft ADP with my first pick. When I come out of the 4-5 turn and dont have a second running back, my strategy will be immediately obvious to everyone. There is no way my league mates will let Taylor fall back to me. Someone would take him in round 6. If someone else were trying this strategy, I know I would steal Taylor from them because it would potentially ruin thier team. I would hold them hostage. That is not to say that there are not some serviceable running backs available, but they will all have huge questions marks and you will likely need to fill up your roster with running back scrubs hoping that one of them blew up for you.If I did try this, and someone took Taylor before I could get him, I wouldnt draft a running back at the 6-7 turn. At that point, you might as well recognize that your second running back spot is going to be an issue. I would round out my roster and would probably take the first team defense. I would then spend the next 4-5 rounds picking up promising backups and rookies.I think the only dependable way of working this strategy would be to draft a running back at the 4-5 turn and taking taylor at the 6-7 turn and then trading your second running back away to some team that drafted a WR or TE in round 5 or 6. If you draft another running back in the 5th round, you stand a much better chance of getting Taylor in the 7th.

This is well thought out strategy. Good contribution Amos!

 

[5-ish Finkle]

I am not a fan of handcuffing or taking backups to other people's studs unless they are going to provide a decent level of production in their own right.

And that's the part that needs to be remembered when attempting this strategy, be it with Taylor or whomever: The handcuff you're taking from someone else in this scenario is still capable of producing even if they remain "#2" on the depth chart. You're not just making the #### move and snagging a guy's backup.There are actually a handful of guys like this around this season. Maybe not guys who you'd feel comfortable starting as your #2 runner, or selecting in round 6, but "handcuff types" who look to at least get enough touches to merit covering byes and such: Felix Jones, Mendenhall, probably Fargas, Ricky Williams, potentially LaMont Jordan now, maybe D'Angelo Williams. Perhaps a couple others I'm forgetting.And if "lightning strikes" maybe they ratchet up due to opportunity from injury or ineffectiveness of their backfield mate or whatever. Like Itchy said, if it's question between, say, a Mendenhall/Jones in the 8th over Bobby Engram/S. Moss when you could probably get Derrick Mason in the 9th I don't see the a huge difference.

 

[Birdie048]

So, aside from Chester Taylor, who else falls into this category - as a servicable RB3 garnered in the 6/7th round?

Fred Taylor

Ricky Williams

DeAngelo Williams

Pierre Thomas/Duece McAllister

Lamont Jordan

Justin Fargas

Ladell Betts

Leon Washington

There is a wide range of ability on this list as well as a wide range of ADP values. What separates them aside from opportunity?

I almost included Julius Jones/Mo Morris here. The unsettled role of RBBC in Seattle still has me lost.

 

[Birdie048]

And if "lightning strikes" maybe they ratchet up due to opportunity from injury or ineffectiveness of their backfield mate or whatever. Like Itchy said, if it's question between, say, a Mendenhall/Jones in the 8th over Bobby Engram/S. Moss when you could probably get Derrick Mason in the 9th I don't see the a huge difference.

So, it's a 2 part equation then... Taking a slightly lower rated WR/TE later while taking the high potential RB in 6/7 plus the handcuff potential given the injury event opportunity to perform (more touches). But in a competitive league, those marginally equal players will be snatched up before you get a chance to fill your need. You might get your RB3/4, but now you are hurting at WR3 instead, or maybe TE1 is the sacrificial skill position. You can not get everything without giving up something..... atleast I never seem to be able to.