Adrian Peterson: Hype vs. Actual Value (1 Viewer)

[Moldy Potato]

According to the FBG rankings, Adrian Peterson is still rated around 8 or 9, below such RBs as Larry Johnson, McGahee, Westbrook, Parker, etc.

However, the hype around my league and around these boards is that he is a stud who you shouldn't consider trading.

I have him in two of my redraft leagues, and am wondering if it's time to take advantage of the hype.

I don't want to start a post that belongs in the AC, I'm just wondering in general...is it time to sell high on Adrian Peterson?

I feel like at this point I could trade Peterson for any RB other than LT. And probably every other player in the league not named Brady, Manning or Moss. I get the feeling this is the same in most other leagues too.

Is it a smart move to try to make a trade? Or is he truly this much of a stud?

 

[Sabertooth]

He's leading the league on rushing with about 60% of the average top guys' attempts. I'd keep him. I am keeping him.

 

[timschochet]

I traded him and Steve Smith for Peyton Manning. I did this not because I don't love ADP, (I do!) but I have Addai, Jacobs, KJ, and Henry, with Selvin Young, Keith, and Norwood still on my bench. And I had Santonio Holmes on my bench who I wasn't able to start because of Smith (my other WR is TO). My quarterbacks were McNabb, Warner, and Garrard, and they were absolutely killing me. So I made the trade and I admit I am nervous about it.

 

[tombonneau]

Guy in our league was shopping him hard the week before his big 200+ yard game. For some reason no one wanted him.

Now he's holding. He says the only guy he'd trade him for his LT. He declined ADP straight up for Willie Parker -- and this guy is a HUGE Steelers homer & Parker fan.

I love ADP and his potential, but no way you get him for value at this point.

 

[Bears_Man2]

If there's hype, it's with good reason. If you watch the kid play, you realize players like him only come around so often. And outside of your examples you noted, you can deal All Day for anyone. I felt Addai was amongst the safest RB's on the board, and even now with him you have questions on how much of a load he's going to take on (not that he can't, but rather Keith is suitable enough and Indy is talented enough to not have to use him as often).

I'd grab Chester as cheap insurance and call it a day.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Besides LT who are you trading him for?

Westbrook- Always hurt

LJ - Horrible offense hurts his numbers

Parker- Davenpoop takes all of his touchdowns

Ronnie Brown- Done for the season

Joseph Addai - Splitting carries with Keith

Willis McGahee - Lol

Those are all the stud running backs this season. I don't see anyone of them being worth the risk from giving up AD.

 

[Moldy Potato]

Besides LT who are you trading him for?Westbrook- Always hurtLJ - Horrible offense hurts his numbersParker- Davenpoop takes all of his touchdownsRonnie Brown- Done for the seasonJoseph Addai - Splitting carries with KeithWillis McGahee - LolThose are all the stud running backs this season. I don't see anyone of them being worth the risk from giving up AD.

So is it time to declare Adrian Peterson the #2 RB in fantasy football behind LT? That seems to be the general feeling right now, and I'm wondering if it's warranted.

 

[weezer]

I just got an open-ended "what would it take to get Peterson?" trade offer from a guy in our league who owns LT, Lynch, Burress (probably his top three targets). Not saying I'd deal AP, but if I do trade him to this guy (a big Vikings homer) I'm making him over-pay.

 

[Birdie048]

Besides LT who are you trading him for?Westbrook- Always hurtLJ - Horrible offense hurts his numbersParker- Davenpoop takes all of his touchdownsRonnie Brown- Done for the seasonJoseph Addai - Splitting carries with KeithWillis McGahee - LolThose are all the stud running backs this season. I don't see anyone of them being worth the risk from giving up AD.

So is it time to declare Adrian Peterson the #2 RB in fantasy football behind LT? That seems to be the general feeling right now, and I'm wondering if it's warranted.

I tend to believe this is the direction he is heading.... I not ready to declare this with certainty. But, with the trend to give him more touches (with the reduced role of Chester Taylor), his value can only go up. After Week 3, I tried to get LT for ADP & Marvin, but he was not ready to give ADP the "Next Stud" label. Today, he might take that deal since he is hurting at WR, but I am unwilling to make the offer.Minn O-Line is clearly the reason for his early success, but IMO, the kid is clearly a high caliber RB with a ceiling yet to be reached. He is in the right situation for a running game, but he needs some passing support.

 

[Sabertooth]

Besides LT who are you trading him for?Westbrook- Always hurtLJ - Horrible offense hurts his numbersParker- Davenpoop takes all of his touchdownsRonnie Brown- Done for the seasonJoseph Addai - Splitting carries with KeithWillis McGahee - LolThose are all the stud running backs this season. I don't see anyone of them being worth the risk from giving up AD.

I play in two leagues. I start Westbrook and AD in one league and LJ and Addai in the other. You make me feel good about that.

 

[eom]

Besides LT who are you trading him for?Westbrook- Always hurtLJ - Horrible offense hurts his numbersParker- Davenpoop takes all of his touchdownsRonnie Brown- Done for the seasonJoseph Addai - Splitting carries with KeithWillis McGahee - LolThose are all the stud running backs this season. I don't see anyone of them being worth the risk from giving up AD.

So is it time to declare Adrian Peterson the #2 RB in fantasy football behind LT? That seems to be the general feeling right now, and I'm wondering if it's warranted.

tomlinsonjacobswestbrooksammypeterson

 

[RBM]

Have him in a keeper league, wouldnt deal him for anything.

This kids special.

 

[RBM]

Besides LT who are you trading him for?

Westbrook- Always hurt

LJ - Horrible offense hurts his numbers

Parker- Davenpoop takes all of his touchdowns

Ronnie Brown- Done for the season

Joseph Addai - Splitting carries with Keith

Willis McGahee - Lol

Those are all the stud running backs this season. I don't see anyone of them being worth the risk from giving up AD.

So is it time to declare Adrian Peterson the #2 RB in fantasy football behind LT? That seems to be the general feeling right now, and I'm wondering if it's warranted.

tomlinsonjacobs

westbrook

sammy

peterson

Say what?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Besides LT who are you trading him for?Westbrook- Always hurtLJ - Horrible offense hurts his numbersParker- Davenpoop takes all of his touchdownsRonnie Brown- Done for the seasonJoseph Addai - Splitting carries with KeithWillis McGahee - LolThose are all the stud running backs this season. I don't see anyone of them being worth the risk from giving up AD.

So is it time to declare Adrian Peterson the #2 RB in fantasy football behind LT? That seems to be the general feeling right now, and I'm wondering if it's warranted.

Yes, it's warranted. What more can he do with limited touches?Rumor has it he's starting from here on out as well....not that it makes any difference to me. He's the #2 RB either way. I could see arguments for Westbrook in redraft, but there's nobody else.

 

[Daywalker]

Can't trade AD for anyone but LT due to the fear of having to watch AD blow up the rest of the year. Brady is in the discussion too. That's it though.

 

[PahtyTom]

According to FBG rankings Derek Anderson is QB12, Hasselbeck is QB16, Garcia is QB18, while Brees is QB8. According to FBG rankings Tennessee is Def15, Washington is Def10, while Baltimore is Def2 and Chicago is Def6. In other words, take FBG rankings with a grain of salt.

 

[eagles2007]

love ADP but he's no lock to get more than 15 carries a game.

 

[Max Power]

To the OP...do what you think is best. Don't listen to these jokers on here. I posted a thread about moving Addai while his value was high around week 3, and got about 50 replies telling me how stupid I was.

Ended up trading Addai and Driver for LT. I laugh about it everyday now.

While I think ADP will finish a top Fantasy back, If you can move him for a great Deal right now, do it.

 

[Pipes]

love ADP but he's no lock to get more than 15 carries a game.

Not too many RB's are now-a-days.

 

[Bears_Man2]

love ADP but he's no lock to get more than 15 carries a game.

Maybe there's some people out there that feel this way, but I tend to believe what Childress has said that he'll get more work as the season goes on.15 carries of AD > many backs getting 20 or more. As a AD owner, as long as he's putting up suitable #'s (like he's done so far), I don't care how many carries he gets. I've seen AD owners complain, I ask why? You're getting #1 RB results from a guy you likely drafted as your #3. If sprinkling in Chester keeps AD healthy, then so be it.

 

[BBRULE]

Besides LT who are you trading him for?

Westbrook- Always hurt

LJ - Horrible offense hurts his numbers

Parker- Davenpoop takes all of his touchdowns

Ronnie Brown- Done for the season

Joseph Addai - Splitting carries with Keith

Willis McGahee - Lol

Those are all the stud running backs this season. I don't see anyone of them being worth the risk from giving up AD.

So is it time to declare Adrian Peterson the #2 RB in fantasy football behind LT? That seems to be the general feeling right now, and I'm wondering if it's warranted.

tomlinsonjacobs

westbrook

sammy

peterson

Say what?

My thoughts exactly, sammy who????

 

[Sabertooth]

Have him in a keeper league, wouldnt deal him for anything.This kids special.

Me too. I trade Steve Smith for him in the week preceding the Chicago coming out party. He's the future of my team. When the league started about 5 years ago, I got LT for $31. I traded him away in year 2 and have regretted that move ever since. I am holding onto AD until his legs fall off.

 

[eom]

sammy morris, of course.

but I may be biased.

edit: and I forgot marion barber.

 

[gethugefast1]

sammy morris, of course.but I may be biased.edit: and I forgot marion barber.

eom, Forget about ADP(because you have him ranked below 'Sammy'), if I owned 'Sammy' and you owned Maroney(again forget about ADP), you would trade me Maroney for Morris?

 

[Assani Fisher]

Besides LT who are you trading him for?Westbrook- Always hurtLJ - Horrible offense hurts his numbersParker- Davenpoop takes all of his touchdownsRonnie Brown- Done for the seasonJoseph Addai - Splitting carries with KeithWillis McGahee - LolThose are all the stud running backs this season. I don't see anyone of them being worth the risk from giving up AD.

So is it time to declare Adrian Peterson the #2 RB in fantasy football behind LT? That seems to be the general feeling right now, and I'm wondering if it's warranted.

I think #1, but we already had a thread on this last week in which I argued it and I don't feel like arguing anymore.But yes, without a doubt at least #2.

 

[Krewe]

love ADP but he's no lock to get more than 15 carries a game.

But then, you can say the same these days for Shawn Alexander. Only diff? --- SA = 15/39/0 ADP =15/185/2or something like that. Hmmm...wonder which 15 carries I want in my lineup N E X T!!!!

 

[gethugefast1]

Besides LT who are you trading him for?

Westbrook- Always hurt

LJ - Horrible offense hurts his numbers

Parker- Davenpoop takes all of his touchdowns

Ronnie Brown- Done for the season

Joseph Addai - Splitting carries with Keith

Willis McGahee - Lol

Those are all the stud running backs this season. I don't see anyone of them being worth the risk from giving up AD.

So is it time to declare Adrian Peterson the #2 RB in fantasy football behind LT? That seems to be the general feeling right now, and I'm wondering if it's warranted.

tomlinsonjacobs

westbrook

sammy

peterson

 

[Koya]

Guy in our league was shopping him hard the week before his big 200+ yard game. For some reason no one wanted him.Now he's holding. He says the only guy he'd trade him for his LT. He declined ADP straight up for Willie Parker -- and this guy is a HUGE Steelers homer & Parker fan.I love ADP and his potential, but no way you get him for value at this point.

I tried to sell him before the uber game myself.Thank god no one bit.

 

[dusty]

Just this past week I traded away ADP and H.Miller for McGahee and A.Gates. I already have Barber,SJAX and Green as my other RB's.I get guarnteed touches and production from two top starting players. I believe ADP is the next best RB next to L.T.,just not this year. His value over the second half of the season will increase but will still be limited as long as Taylor stays healthy, and we cannot dismiss the "Childress factor".

 

[jdoggydogg]

Besides LT who are you trading him for?

Westbrook- Always hurt

LJ - Horrible offense hurts his numbers

Parker- Davenpoop takes all of his touchdowns

Ronnie Brown- Done for the season

Joseph Addai - Splitting carries with Keith

Willis McGahee - Lol

Those are all the stud running backs this season. I don't see anyone of them being worth the risk from giving up AD.

So is it time to declare Adrian Peterson the #2 RB in fantasy football behind LT? That seems to be the general feeling right now, and I'm wondering if it's warranted.

tomlinsonjacobs

westbrook

sammy

peterson

Oy. Sammy Morris above Peterson? You just broke my brain.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I traded him and Steve Smith for Peyton Manning. I did this not because I don't love ADP, (I do!) but I have Addai, Jacobs, KJ, and Henry, with Selvin Young, Keith, and Norwood still on my bench. And I had Santonio Holmes on my bench who I wasn't able to start because of Smith (my other WR is TO). My quarterbacks were McNabb, Warner, and Garrard, and they were absolutely killing me. So I made the trade and I admit I am nervous about it.

Wow. I don't know your scoring system, but the other owner has to be awfully happy with that trade. Awfully happy.

 

[kremenull]

Besides LT who are you trading him for?Westbrook- Always hurtLJ - Horrible offense hurts his numbersParker- Davenpoop takes all of his touchdownsRonnie Brown- Done for the seasonJoseph Addai - Splitting carries with KeithWillis McGahee - LolThose are all the stud running backs this season. I don't see anyone of them being worth the risk from giving up AD.

So is it time to declare Adrian Peterson the #2 RB in fantasy football behind LT? That seems to be the general feeling right now, and I'm wondering if it's warranted.

Per Sabertooth's post above........"He's leading the league on rushing with about 60% of the average top guys' attempts. I'd keep him. I am keeping him."For crying out loud, I sometimes wonder if some of you guys even watch football........AD is a true beast........not even in question......There isn't any conversation about the very best NFL RB that doesn't include him.....I can't understand what it is exactly that you guys can't see in this guy if you've seen him play at all........

 

[Ned]

I traded him and Steve Smith for Peyton Manning. I did this not because I don't love ADP, (I do!) but I have Addai, Jacobs, KJ, and Henry, with Selvin Young, Keith, and Norwood still on my bench. And I had Santonio Holmes on my bench who I wasn't able to start because of Smith (my other WR is TO). My quarterbacks were McNabb, Warner, and Garrard, and they were absolutely killing me. So I made the trade and I admit I am nervous about it.

are you kidding me? that is a god aweful deal.

 

[SharkBait]

I traded him and Steve Smith for Peyton Manning. I did this not because I don't love ADP, (I do!) but I have Addai, Jacobs, KJ, and Henry, with Selvin Young, Keith, and Norwood still on my bench. And I had Santonio Holmes on my bench who I wasn't able to start because of Smith (my other WR is TO). My quarterbacks were McNabb, Warner, and Garrard, and they were absolutely killing me. So I made the trade and I admit I am nervous about it.

Unless that's the New York Football Giants Steve Smith, ouch.

 

[eom]

Oy. Sammy Morris above Peterson? You just broke my brain.

scoff all you want but sammy's a 50/1 guy when he only gets 10 carries, and 100/1 when he starts ---- and he will be starting again.....he's in the strongest offense in football, getting a look at the end zone 6x/game --- how's the minny offense look?also, who do you think will be carrying the ball against miami and the jets in weeks 15 + 16 (playoffs)?peterson would be great to have, but most of his production has come from one monster game.when sammy comes back and maroney gets hurt again, I like him to close the gap a little.plus, I'm very loyal to my guys and I don't own peterson.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Oy. Sammy Morris above Peterson? You just broke my brain.

peterson would be great to have, but most of his production has come from one monster game.

That's not true. AD has had 2 other games in which he's scored 20+ fantasy points. He's scored in double digits in every game this season.

 

[SharkBait]

Oy. Sammy Morris above Peterson? You just broke my brain.

peterson would be great to have, but most of his production has come from one monster game.

That's not true. AD has had 2 other games in which he's scored 20+ fantasy points. He's scored in double digits in every game this season.

LOL. I think he's fishing a bit. Next we'll read, "Take away his 20 longest runs and what do you have?"

 

[The Jerk]

plus, I'm very loyal to my guys and I don't own peterson.

Very scientific approach here. Almost as insightful as my sig.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

I traded him for Chad Johnson 3 days before his blowup game. I assumed he'd be stuck in RBBC and be a 90 yard 1 TD kind of guy the rest of the way.

 

[Church of Iggy Pop]

love ADP but he's no lock to get more than 15 carries a game.

Maybe there's some people out there that feel this way, but I tend to believe what Childress has said that he'll get more work as the season goes on.15 carries of AD > many backs getting 20 or more. As a AD owner, as long as he's putting up suitable #'s (like he's done so far), I don't care how many carries he gets. I've seen AD owners complain, I ask why? You're getting #1 RB results from a guy you likely drafted as your #3. If sprinkling in Chester keeps AD healthy, then so be it.

The Shark Pool should ease up a bit on Childress, IMHO. I don't care if AD is demoted to third string, as long as he gets enough touches to keep scoring double-digit fantasy points each week. Would like to see less of him as a kick returner, I admit.

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

I drafted AP in the fourth round. I had LT and since I drafted 4 RBs early, I was screwed at WR. I moved AP after his 66 yd week two performance for Edwards and Galloway. I'm pretty happy with Edwrads but man that could have been one hell of a combo. We are allowed to keep one player and for me it would be a no-brainer to keep LT.

 

[Koya]

Oy. Sammy Morris above Peterson? You just broke my brain.

scoff all you want but sammy's a 50/1 guy when he only gets 10 carries, and 100/1 when he starts ---- and he will be starting again.....he's in the strongest offense in football, getting a look at the end zone 6x/game --- how's the minny offense look?

also, who do you think will be carrying the ball against miami and the jets in weeks 15 + 16 (playoffs)?

peterson would be great to have, but most of his production has come from one monster game.

when sammy comes back and maroney gets hurt again, I like him to close the gap a little.

plus, I'm very loyal to my guys and I don't own peterson.

Per Yudkin's update today, there is a decent chance that Morris doesnt come back at all this year, especially in any meaningful way. At best, Morris will likely be out until December and then likely eased back as the Pats prepare for the playoffs.So, to answer your question as to who will carry the ball against miami and the Jets?

Not Sammy Morris.

 

[Pocket Joker]

Oy. Sammy Morris above Peterson? You just broke my brain.

scoff all you want but sammy's a 50/1 guy when he only gets 10 carries, and 100/1 when he starts ---- and he will be starting again.....he's in the strongest offense in football, getting a look at the end zone 6x/game --- how's the minny offense look?

also, who do you think will be carrying the ball against miami and the jets in weeks 15 + 16 (playoffs)?

peterson would be great to have, but most of his production has come from one monster game.

when sammy comes back and maroney gets hurt again, I like him to close the gap a little.

plus, I'm very loyal to my guys and I don't own peterson.

 

[yinzer]

I drafted AP in the fourth round. I had LT and since I drafted 4 RBs early, I was screwed at WR. I moved AP after his 66 yd week two performance for Edwards and Galloway. I'm pretty happy with Edwrads but man that could have been one hell of a combo. We are allowed to keep one player and for me it would be a no-brainer to keep LT.

This statement makes about as much sense as the guy who said he likes his dealing ADP+Smitty for Manning.Do you want the RB who will likely have 2 more Top 3 RB years?

Do you want the RB who will likely have 9 more Top 3 RB years?

You're right, it is a no-brainer. A no-brainer to keep ALL DAY PETE

....at least braylon is working out for you

 

[jdoggydogg]

scoff all you want but sammy's a 50/1 guy when he only gets 10 carries, and 100/1 when he starts ---- and he will be starting again.....

Sammy Morris will not produce at the same level with a healthy Maroney.

he's in the strongest offense in football, getting a look at the end zone 6x/game --- how's the minny offense look?

Here's how the Minny offense looks: ADP leads the league in rushing.

 

[fatness]

tomlinson

jacobs

westbrook

sammy

peterson

Love hurts.

 

[Keys Myaths]

He's the best FF player right now. Not hype, actual fact.

What exactly are you trying to say? Genuinely confused.

 

[Ahmad Rashad]

I believe ADP is the next best RB next to L.T.,just not this year. His value over the second half of the season will increase but will still be limited as long as Taylor stays healthy, and we cannot dismiss the "Childress factor".

AD has already been the next best RB to L.T. this year -- if his value over the second half increases, how will his value not be at least the next best RB to L.T.? Childress has said his role will increase...I love having the L.T./A.D. combo in my main league, which allows 2 keepers.

 

[Keys Myaths]

I believe ADP is the next best RB next to L.T.,just not this year. His value over the second half of the season will increase but will still be limited as long as Taylor stays healthy, and we cannot dismiss the "Childress factor".

AD has already been the next best RB to L.T. this year

He's not "next" best.

 

[scott72]

Not going to read the whole thread, but my opinion is sell high in re-drafts. That passing game, or lack thereof, is gonna kill his numbers. Not only is he not getting more than 20 carries right now, but teams are going to start loading 8+ in the box. No one fears any of their QB's so if I'm an opposing coach, hell yeah I stack the box and make em throw..In dynasty and keeper leagues hold on tight cause he's a true stud.