Adrian Peterson: Hype vs. Actual Value (1 Viewer)

[eagles2007]

Not going to read the whole thread, but my opinion is sell high in re-drafts. That passing game, or lack thereof, is gonna kill his numbers. Not only is he not getting more than 20 carries right now, but teams are going to start loading 8+ in the box. No one fears any of their QB's so if I'm an opposing coach, hell yeah I stack the box and make em throw..In dynasty and keeper leagues hold on tight cause he's a true stud.

good. let them. once he breaks free he's gone. pretty sure the bears and cowboys played close to this way.

 

[eom]

Per Yudkin's update today, there is a decent chance that Morris doesnt come back at all this year, especially in any meaningful way. At best, Morris will likely be out until December and then likely eased back as the Pats prepare for the playoffs.So, to answer your question as to who will carry the ball against miami and the Jets?Not Sammy Morris.

well, that's a kick in the nuts.I just can't keep 2 rb's playing at the same time.

 

[gethugefast1]

Not going to read the whole thread, but my opinion is sell high in re-drafts. That passing game, or lack thereof, is gonna kill his numbers. Not only is he not getting more than 20 carries right now, but teams are going to start loading 8+ in the box. No one fears any of their QB's so if I'm an opposing coach, hell yeah I stack the box and make em throw..In dynasty and keeper leagues hold on tight cause he's a true stud.

I don't believe anyone Minn has played thus far has feared their QBs. Teams already have been stacking. That's why some of his carries have been for 0-3 yards. Problem w/stacking the box is...if there is just one slight crack for ADP to see w/his great vision he gets there, then w/his power he breaks arm tackling & w/his speed he's gone(less defenders in the secondary).Now if Childress gives him more opportunities to find those cracks, amist short gains...lookout!

 

[Max Power]

I remember two years ago when this thread was about Caddy.

 

[Keys Myaths]

I remember two years ago when this thread was about Caddy.

1. You've been here for a month.2. Cadillac was never the #1 RB in fantasy football. He never split carries, either.

 

[yinzer]

Not going to read the whole thread, but my opinion is sell high in re-drafts. That passing game, or lack thereof, is gonna kill his numbers. Not only is he not getting more than 20 carries right now, but teams are going to start loading 8+ in the box. No one fears any of their QB's so if I'm an opposing coach, hell yeah I stack the box and make em throw..In dynasty and keeper leagues hold on tight cause he's a true stud.

good. let them. once he breaks free he's gone. pretty sure the bears and cowboys played close to this way.

they got a pretty damn good run-blocking OL as well. 8 in the box is what most Stud RBs face

 

[Max Power]

I remember two years ago when this thread was about Caddy.

1. You've been here for a month.2. Cadillac was never the #1 RB in fantasy football. He never split carries, either.

Yes this ID is new. ADP is the #3 RB in FF to my count. Moving to #2 now that Brown got injuried. Are you trying to deny the crazy hype in the FF world after Caddy's first few games?This was more ment as a warning to people who are already willing to keep ADP over LT in keeper leagues.

 

[yinzer]

I remember two years ago when this thread was about Caddy.

1. You've been here for a month.2. Cadillac was never the #1 RB in fantasy football. He never split carries, either.

Yes this ID is new. ADP is the #3 RB in FF to my count. Moving to #2 now that Brown got injuried. Are you trying to deny the crazy hype in the FF world after Caddy's first few games?This was more ment as a warning to people who are already willing to keep ADP over LT in keeper leagues.

Why wouldn't you want to keep him over LT? Barring a season-ending injury this year, the dude's got 7-8 years of pure youthness on his side. I doubt many have both RBs, and most keepers allow you to keep more than 1, but I'd be keeping AP over LT All Day. No pun intended, well, maybe

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

I remember two years ago when this thread was about Caddy.

1. You've been here for a month.2. Cadillac was never the #1 RB in fantasy football. He never split carries, either.

Yes this ID is new. ADP is the #3 RB in FF to my count. Moving to #2 now that Brown got injuried. Are you trying to deny the crazy hype in the FF world after Caddy's first few games?This was more ment as a warning to people who are already willing to keep ADP over LT in keeper leagues.

Caddy had 3 great games (27 for 148, 24 for 128, 37 for 158)....after which he had: week 4: 11 carries for 13 ydsweek 5: injuredweek 6: injuredweek 7: byeAfter the bye, he returned but had 4 games of less than 30 yards rushing. Through 7 games, I'd say ADP has been a bit more successful than Cadillac.

 

[rufan]

I remember two years ago when this thread was about Caddy.

1. You've been here for a month.2. Cadillac was never the #1 RB in fantasy football. He never split carries, either.

Yes this ID is new. ADP is the #3 RB in FF to my count. Moving to #2 now that Brown got injuried. Are you trying to deny the crazy hype in the FF world after Caddy's first few games?This was more ment as a warning to people who are already willing to keep ADP over LT in keeper leagues.

If you are comparing Peterson to Caddy, then you are either completely clueless or never saw Peterson play. There is simply no comparison.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I remember two years ago when this thread was about Caddy.

1. You've been here for a month.2. Cadillac was never the #1 RB in fantasy football. He never split carries, either.

Yes this ID is new. ADP is the #3 RB in FF to my count. Moving to #2 now that Brown got injuried. Are you trying to deny the crazy hype in the FF world after Caddy's first few games?This was more ment as a warning to people who are already willing to keep ADP over LT in keeper leagues.

If you are comparing Peterson to Caddy, then you are either completely clueless or never saw Peterson play. There is simply no comparison.

I used to own Caddy in a dynasty league. I watched every game of his rookie year. Caddy is no ADP. Peterson makes Caddy look like a little boy.

 

[drdgreenlove]

comparing to caddy's rookie year is dumb

caddy: 16 plays 10-20 yards, 2 runs of 30-40 yards... 1 yard 40+ the entire season

All Day: 16 plays 10-20 yards, 2 plays 30-40 yards ... 4 plays over 40 yards, so far!

All Day- 6 TD 30 first downs in 6 games

Caddy- 6 TD 51 first downs in 14 games

Caddy 1178 yards rushing 81 receiving

All Day- 670 rushing, 178 receiving....

If all day plays 14 games like Caddy...projected 1563 rushing , 415 receving

if All Day plays 16 games 1786 rushing, 474 rushing= 2260 yards which is close to Tomlinson's best years where LT had 2300+ yards, Marshall Faulk who had 2400 yards, and Preist's best year of 2287 yards

Rookie seasons: total yards

Faulk 1810 yards total

LT2- 1630 yards

Dickerson 2212 yards-

Barry- 1752 yards

Emmitt- 1165 yards

Caddy 1259 yards

Sure projecting is risky business... All Day could get hurt tomorrow (hope not)... but the talent he has is immense, a once in a decade or more talent... he could easily rival LT2 and is one of the rare people who (at this early stage) we could imagine entering the discussion of best RB ever with Barry Sanders, Jim Brown, Sweetness, etc

So to come back to the point.. in a dynasty, All Day is number one and only LT is a reasonable guy to trade for (because LT has the resume which All Day hopes to have in a few years).. but All Day is much younger... Fantasy Football is about luck and taking risks... IMHO holding All Day is the least risky move UNLESS you get a really dumb offer proposed to you (like LT2 + Calvin Johnson in dynasty or something like that)

In redraft he isnt a sell high... most people still wouldnt trade him for anyone but LT, maybe Parker if you're lucky

 

[TwinTurbo]

I remember two years ago when this thread was about Caddy.

Yes and two years ago there was a thread about ADP playing in the NFL too. That's how good he is. We were all talking about him when he was a freshman at OU. Listen there is absolutely no comparison between Caddy and ADP. None. Other than the fact that they play the same position. ADP is not Caddy. He is not A-Train. He is not some flash in the pan rookie RB. This guy has everything you could possibly want in a stud NFL RB. The entire skill set. It's all there and it's been on display for the last 7 weeks and for his entire college career. Even in high school this guy looked like he could have suited up on Sundays. I'm not sure what else people need to see from him at this point.

 

[eom]

hey --- whichever gutless poster it was that pm'd me:

take a couple pamprin.

 

[SomeCallMeTim]

According to FBG rankings Derek Anderson is QB12, Hasselbeck is QB16, Garcia is QB18, while Brees is QB8. According to FBG rankings Tennessee is Def15, Washington is Def10, while Baltimore is Def2 and Chicago is Def6. In other words, take FBG rankings with a grain of salt.

Yea.. FBG's have DREW BREES ranked WELL above Derek Anderson... gimme a major break. Have they actually been watching any of the games? I have both.. I KNOW who my starter is.. As a Texas fan, I've been watching AP for a LONG time... the kid is very special. No way you trade him for anyone other than LT or Brady.. and, frankly.... I prefer him now over LT.

 

[Assani Fisher]

Oy. Sammy Morris above Peterson? You just broke my brain.

scoff all you want but sammy's a 50/1 guy when he only gets 10 carries, and 100/1 when he starts ---- and he will be starting again.....he's in the strongest offense in football, getting a look at the end zone 6x/game --- how's the minny offense look?also, who do you think will be carrying the ball against miami and the jets in weeks 15 + 16 (playoffs)?peterson would be great to have, but most of his production has come from one monster game.when sammy comes back and maroney gets hurt again, I like him to close the gap a little.plus, I'm very loyal to my guys and I don't own peterson.

Theres no way you truly believe this. Would you be willing to wager that Sammy will do better the rest of the way?

 

[eom]

yeah, I just heard/read that yudkin seems to think he's out for another month+, so bet's off.

might even have to cut him, although it breaks my heart to cut a pat --- you better be right, yudkin....

 

[yinzer]

According to FBG rankings Derek Anderson is QB12, Hasselbeck is QB16, Garcia is QB18, while Brees is QB8. According to FBG rankings Tennessee is Def15, Washington is Def10, while Baltimore is Def2 and Chicago is Def6. In other words, take FBG rankings with a grain of salt.

Yea.. FBG's have DREW BREES ranked WELL above Derek Anderson... gimme a major break. Have they actually been watching any of the games? I have both.. I KNOW who my starter is..

As a Texas fan, I've been watching AP for a LONG time... the kid is very special. No way you trade him for anyone other than LT or Brady.. and, frankly.... I prefer him now over LT.

Im thinking about trading him for Moss straight up. Id still have LJ, McGahee, Jacobs, KJ, and Chatman and would have a rock solid 1-2 WR punch. I might ask for a throw in with Moss, but it'd probably someone I wouldnt even want to keep anyway.With that, Id add Moss to your list of Brady and LT. Moss has been as dominant at WR at ADP at RB and thats saying something for a WR to consistently produce like he has.

That said, I love ADP, and think winning a FF championship this year wouldn't be the same without him and realizing that I only have about a 15% chance of ever getting him again each year (drafting 1 or 2), I think Im going to keep the SOD

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I drafted AP in the fourth round. I had LT and since I drafted 4 RBs early, I was screwed at WR. I moved AP after his 66 yd week two performance for Edwards and Galloway. I'm pretty happy with Edwrads but man that could have been one hell of a combo. We are allowed to keep one player and for me it would be a no-brainer to keep LT.

This statement makes about as much sense as the guy who said he likes his dealing ADP+Smitty for Manning.Do you want the RB who will likely have 2 more Top 3 RB years?

Do you want the RB who will likely have 9 more Top 3 RB years?

You're right, it is a no-brainer. A no-brainer to keep ALL DAY PETE

....at least braylon is working out for you

You're pretty far-sighted to take six games and project that out to nine years of top-three status. What did you think of MJD last year?

 

[dollarbill13]

In a re-draft league I'd only trade him if I had a black hole at another position and plenty of RB depth where losing him wouldn't be a huge downgrade.

Dynasty/Keeper becomes the tricky question. First off, to the guy who said that Peterson "likely" has 9 more years of top 3 fantasy RB stats left in him while LT only has 2 shouldn't be looking that far into the future. NFL running backs just aren't locks to last 10 years. Every player in the NFL probably has at least 10% odds of suffering a significant injury. RB's odds are probably greater. Let's say that a RB getting 20 carries per game has 20% odds of suffering a significant injury during a year... what are the odds of him making it through 10 years without one? Simple math would put those odds at 5.6% and the odds of even making it through 3 years is less than 50%.

LT might be the perfect RB for dynasty leagues and I'd have a very hard time convincing myself to pick AD over LT. The guy gets starters carries, doesn't take many hits, is a multi-dimensional runner and is an excellent receiver. AD has yet to prove himself as a RB that you can rely on to catch passes out of the backfield and the running high thing is always a concern.

Finally, isn't the "shark" move always to trade at peak value (which of course assumes that you can get peak value in a trade)?

 

[DoGdr]

With news that he is getting more of the carries and seeinf he as a somewhat easier schedule I am sold. I am offering Willie Parker for him, no response yet but I'll let the offer sit.

 

[scott72]

Again I say, the Minnesota passing game, and inept coaching is going to kill this AP's value. Not too mention the Queens will trail in every game they play. Sell high now..

 

[Moldy Potato]

Anybody changing their mind after today's performance?

 

[Koya]

Anybody changing their mind after today's performance?

Nothing in today's performance to suggest any chance overall. People had to know that their QB situation is already bad, which will limit production in some games. But we didnt expect BOLLINGER bad... ANYthing is an improvement over Bollinger. With that in mind, the guy can and will break a long one at any time, many times. If only this team had even a hint of a semlence of a passing game.

 

[Avery]

Anybody changing their mind after today's performance?

My concern is that Brad Childress will take the wrong lessons away from today. "See! I was right! Peterson is far more effective when I give Taylor more carries! See!"

 

[RUSF18]

Anybody changing their mind after today's performance?

Yeah, there's about 1000 RBs who would kill to have a 20 carry, 70 yard game as the worst performance of their young rookie season.

 

[EdwardCat]

Peterson's hype is still a bit higher than his actual value. However, given that he's a rookie, I wouldn't be too concerned. He is, or has the potential to be, the most explosive and complete RB in the game. He just happens to be on one of the worst offensive teams in the game. Given that, I'd say his hype is merited. If people are selling high...buy him low.

 

[yinzer]

I drafted AP in the fourth round. I had LT and since I drafted 4 RBs early, I was screwed at WR. I moved AP after his 66 yd week two performance for Edwards and Galloway. I'm pretty happy with Edwrads but man that could have been one hell of a combo. We are allowed to keep one player and for me it would be a no-brainer to keep LT.

This statement makes about as much sense as the guy who said he likes his dealing ADP+Smitty for Manning.Do you want the RB who will likely have 2 more Top 3 RB years?

Do you want the RB who will likely have 9 more Top 3 RB years?

You're right, it is a no-brainer. A no-brainer to keep ALL DAY PETE

....at least braylon is working out for you

You're pretty far-sighted to take six games and project that out to nine years of top-three status. What did you think of MJD last year?

I thought he was Marion Barber 3 with less talent. Serviceable, but skills that can't even match ADP, and really match him in any facet (vision, break tackles, speed, agility, etc)

 

[yinzer]

In a re-draft league I'd only trade him if I had a black hole at another position and plenty of RB depth where losing him wouldn't be a huge downgrade.

Dynasty/Keeper becomes the tricky question. First off, to the guy who said that Peterson "likely" has 9 more years of top 3 fantasy RB stats left in him while LT only has 2 shouldn't be looking that far into the future. NFL running backs just aren't locks to last 10 years. Every player in the NFL probably has at least 10% odds of suffering a significant injury. RB's odds are probably greater. Let's say that a RB getting 20 carries per game has 20% odds of suffering a significant injury during a year... what are the odds of him making it through 10 years without one? Simple math would put those odds at 5.6% and the odds of even making it through 3 years is less than 50%.

LT might be the perfect RB for dynasty leagues and I'd have a very hard time convincing myself to pick AD over LT. The guy gets starters carries, doesn't take many hits, is a multi-dimensional runner and is an excellent receiver. AD has yet to prove himself as a RB that you can rely on to catch passes out of the backfield and the running high thing is always a concern.

Finally, isn't the "shark" move always to trade at peak value (which of course assumes that you can get peak value in a trade)?

Ok, I admit I may have jumped to conclusions on 9 years of Top 3 status, but the only reason this isn't true is due to injury, and you gotta factor in his youth when comparing him to LT. The offense around him should only improve.As for the injuries, what you're saying is really all numbers you just threw out and calculated. Not much validity. Plus, ADP has already had a serious injury, maybe even 2 if you want to call the collarbone serious, yet he still looks nasty, has the same speed, and isn't avoiding tacklers - he runs through them.

Why is LT perfect for dynasty? He's 29. You've heard of the proverbial 30-yr old wall, right? Also, doesn't LT have just as much of a chance to get injured as most any other RB? The way you're talking is like kryptonite is the only thing that will stop LT and, well, no one has kryptonite so I guess he'll never get injured. All it takes is 1 injury, not to mention the older you are the more prone you are to injuries, its physiology.

And the running high thing he has been working on and has really improved on. I wouldn't even bring it up more.

So full circle, maybe 9 years is jumping the gun but how you can take LT over him *for the long haul* is beyond me. Obviously, roster dictates this because if you got say Owens, Harrison, and Rudi Johnson in dynasty, you're playing to win the next few years and would likely keep LT. If you got LT and a young surrounding cast, that shark move is get ADP so your team only continues to improve while LT is the 2010's version of Emmitt Smith.

 

[Koya]

I will say this: a couple runs REINFORCED my opinion that this guy has uber-elite talent.

A couple nice power runs off tackle and how about his nice 7 yard run where he JUMPED over/through the line a few feet in the air. When they say "hit the hole" they dont usually mean the hole will be 4 feet above the ground.

 

[gianmarco]

Let's not forget he had a 22 yd run called back on a non-existent holding penalty and I believe there was another.

 

[pgreenfan]

I made an offer today in a keep 5 league of Willie Parker, Reggie Wayne and Marion Barber for him and will be shocked but happy if the owner takes it.

 

[eagles2007]

I will say this: a couple runs REINFORCED my opinion that this guy has uber-elite talent. A couple nice power runs off tackle and how about his nice 7 yard run where he JUMPED over/through the line a few feet in the air. When they say "hit the hole" they dont usually mean the hole will be 4 feet above the ground.

yeah, i saw that one, too. my jaw hit the floor. i really don't want to see the star of my team do that and get twisted up in the knees.anyone else catch brian baldinger's act today? at one point he said: "adrian peterson is the best running back in the NFL right now - by far.' and between him and the play by play guy, it was constant gushing, even when peterson was thrown for a loss.