AFC Playoffs (1 Viewer)

[Islanders rule]

AFC - South - Titans win - Playoff team #1

AFC - West - Broncos win - Playoff team # 2

That leaves 5 teams playing for 4 playoff spots for the AFC.

New York Jets

New England

Baltimore

Indianapolis

Pittsburg

Pittsburg has the remaining schedule which is tough: Likely final record 11-5

week 14 - vs Dallas

week 15 - @ Baltimore

week 16 - @ Tennessee

week 17 - vs Cleveland

Baltimore has the remaining schedule which is medium: Likely final record 11-5

week 14 - vs Washington

week 15 - vs Pittsburgh

week 16 - @ Dallas

week 17 - vs Jacksonville

New England has the remaining schedule which is soft: Likely final record 11-5

week 14 - @ Seattle

week 15 - @ Oakland

week 16 - vs Arizona

week 17 - @ Buffalo

New York Jets has the remaining schedule which is soft: Likely final record 12-5

week 14 - @ San Francisco

week 15 - vs Buffalo

week 16 - @ Seattle

week 17 - vs Miami

Indianapolis has the remaining schedule which is soft: Likely final record 12-5 (I think the Titans rest their starters in week 17)

week 14 - vs Cincinatti

week 15 - vs Detroit

week 16 - @ Jacksonville

week 17 - vs Tennessee

After looking at these remaining schedules, which team do think misses the playoffs ? I don't know the tie-breakers.

Edited to change week 15 Jets opponent to Buffalo.

 

[poopdawg]

Is there an echo in here??

 

[Steeler43]

Baltimore sucks, they'll finish 10-6, and I don't see NE running the table. There it is.

 

[djcolts]

I know the Jets don't play the Giants on week 15 (not possible since Afc East plays Nfc West this year). You mean the Bills, I assume?

 

[Die]

Pretty sure Patriots lose all significant tiebreakers because their losses are in conference and division. Here's how I see it after giving it a whopping 10 minutes of thought.

PIT 11-5

week 14 - vs Dallas L

week 15 - @ Baltimore W

week 16 - @ Tennessee L

week 17 - vs Cleveland W

BAL 10-6

week 14 - vs Washington W

week 15 - vs Pittsburgh L

week 16 - @ Dallas L

week 17 - vs Jacksonville W

NWE 9-7

week 14 - @ Seattle W

week 15 - @ Oakland W

week 16 - vs Arizona L

week 17 - @ Buffalo L

NYJ 11-5

week 14 - @ San Francisco W

week 15 - vs Bills W

week 16 - @ Seattle L

week 17 - vs Miami W

IND 12-4

week 14 - vs Cincinnati W

week 15 - vs Detroit W

week 16 - @ Jacksonville W

week 17 - vs Tennessee W

Patriots miss

Broncos 9-7

#1 titans with a bye

#2 steelers with a bye

#6 Ravens @ #3 Jets

#5 Colts @ #4 Broncos

 

[Trey]

I mean, I know we are not blowing anyone away, but how can you have this discussion without even mentioning Miami?

 

[Die]

I mean, I know we are not blowing anyone away, but how can you have this discussion without even mentioning Miami?

Miami is in a tough spot. They can probably beat out the Patriots for 7th best in the AFC but that doesn't get them into postseason. The Ravens are probably going to be the 6th seed with at least 10 wins. Even if the fish tie the Ravens at 10 wins, they lost head to head to the Ravens in week 7 27-13. So they need a better record than Baltimore. They probably need to win all their remaining games and reach 11 wins, and it still might not be enough.They just lost to the wrong team.

 

[Islanders rule]

I mean, I know we are not blowing anyone away, but how can you have this discussion without even mentioning Miami?

I guess it's because the Dolphins have beat the Raiders, Rams & Seahawks by a combined total of 8 points.

 

[Jimmy James]

I mean, I know we are not blowing anyone away, but how can you have this discussion without even mentioning Miami?

I guess it's because the Dolphins have beat the Raiders, Rams & Seahawks by a combined total of 8 points.

What's the record? It's absurd and just downright irresponsible to have this type of discussion drawing a line between the Patriots and the Dolphins when they have the same record, are 1-1 head to head, and it is quite unclear at this point which team will have better division and conference records when the season ends. As a Dolphins fan, I'm not looking to go to the playoffs this year. I'd be thrilled if it worked out that way, but it's just too early. That doesn't change the fact that if you're going to have this conversation, you don't draw an arbitrary line with teams that have basically the same attributes.

 

[Jimmy James]

I mean, I know we are not blowing anyone away, but how can you have this discussion without even mentioning Miami?

Miami is in a tough spot. They can probably beat out the Patriots for 7th best in the AFC but that doesn't get them into postseason. The Ravens are probably going to be the 6th seed with at least 10 wins. Even if the fish tie the Ravens at 10 wins, they lost head to head to the Ravens in week 7 27-13. So they need a better record than Baltimore. They probably need to win all their remaining games and reach 11 wins, and it still might not be enough.They just lost to the wrong team.

See, this is good analysis. It's a strong argument in my book for why we're even having this discussion. It seems to me that the six are pretty likely to not include the Pats or the Dolphins. Of course, that means there is no thread.

 

[Die]

Miami's best chance is to win the division, because then that loss to the Ravens doesn't matter. They control their destiny to some degree since they play the Jets in week 17. That might actually be doable. The Dolphins-Bills game next week is big because the Dolphins don't need another division loss. If the Dolphins finish strong, and the Jets slip just a bit, Miami can steal it at the wire.

 

[timschochet]

The Steeler schedule is tough, I agree, but...did you watch them today?

If you had, you might agree with my assessment, which is that they are now one of the three best teams in football, on a level with the Giants and quite possibly a better team than Tennessee. I don't expect them to lose two of their remaining games. They might win all of the remaining games; we'll see.

 

[Die]

The Steeler schedule is tough, I agree, but...did you watch them today?If you had, you might agree with my assessment, which is that they are now one of the three best teams in football, on a level with the Giants and quite possibly a better team than Tennessee. I don't expect them to lose two of their remaining games. They might win all of the remaining games; we'll see.

I don't see them on the level of the Giants or Titans. They beat a depleted Patriots club today, but, the Steelers still very clearly have line issues and flaws that the Giants and Titans do not seem to have. The Patriots have struggled at rushing the passer and in pass coverage. Its not the type of test the Steelers OL needs to pass to consider them among the best.

 

[timschochet]

The Steeler schedule is tough, I agree, but...did you watch them today?If you had, you might agree with my assessment, which is that they are now one of the three best teams in football, on a level with the Giants and quite possibly a better team than Tennessee. I don't expect them to lose two of their remaining games. They might win all of the remaining games; we'll see.

I don't see them on the level of the Giants or Titans. They beat a depleted Patriots club today, but, the Steelers still very clearly have line issues and flaws that the Giants and Titans do not seem to have.

Wow. About 6 hours ago, the Pats were not "depleted" at all, but a rejuvenated team with a dynamic offense and fans talking about how they can't be stopped.After next week's game, will we be hearing about how the Cowboys are "depleted"?

 

[Die]

The Steeler schedule is tough, I agree, but...did you watch them today?If you had, you might agree with my assessment, which is that they are now one of the three best teams in football, on a level with the Giants and quite possibly a better team than Tennessee. I don't expect them to lose two of their remaining games. They might win all of the remaining games; we'll see.

I don't see them on the level of the Giants or Titans. They beat a depleted Patriots club today, but, the Steelers still very clearly have line issues and flaws that the Giants and Titans do not seem to have.

Wow. About 6 hours ago, the Pats were not "depleted" at all, but a rejuvenated team with a dynamic offense and fans talking about how they can't be stopped.After next week's game, will we be hearing about how the Cowboys are "depleted"?

I don't know what you mean. I never said the Patriots were rejuvenated. If anything I think it would probably take a miracle for the Patriots to get in the playoffs.

 

[timschochet]

The Steeler schedule is tough, I agree, but...did you watch them today?

If you had, you might agree with my assessment, which is that they are now one of the three best teams in football, on a level with the Giants and quite possibly a better team than Tennessee. I don't expect them to lose two of their remaining games. They might win all of the remaining games; we'll see.

I don't see them on the level of the Giants or Titans. They beat a depleted Patriots club today, but, the Steelers still very clearly have line issues and flaws that the Giants and Titans do not seem to have.

Wow. About 6 hours ago, the Pats were not "depleted" at all, but a rejuvenated team with a dynamic offense and fans talking about how they can't be stopped.After next week's game, will we be hearing about how the Cowboys are "depleted"?

I don't know what you mean. I never said the Patriots were rejuvenated. If anything I think it would probably take a miracle for the Patriots to get in the playoffs.

I have no idea what YOU said, but go back and read what was written here and in sports columns around the nation after the Pats beat Miami last week. And they weren't wrong; Matt Cassel has improved, and the offense is dynamic right now. I think the Patriots may win all their remaining games, and I would hate to play them in the playoffs.But if you watched the Steelers the last few weeks, you would realize that

1. The offensive line problems have shored up and Ben is getting much better protection

2. Ben is finally getting healthy

3. Most important, this defense is beyond belief. It is the best Steeler defense since 1976 and may be the best NFL defense since the 2000 Ravens. It is DOMINANT.

 

[The Goat]

I mean, I know we are not blowing anyone away, but how can you have this discussion without even mentioning Miami?

I guess it's because the Dolphins have beat the Raiders, Rams & Seahawks by a combined total of 8 points.

Hi. Not to be that guy, but didn't the Jets LOSE to the Raiders?

 

[The Goat]

Miami's best chance is to win the division, because then that loss to the Ravens doesn't matter. They control their destiny to some degree since they play the Jets in week 17. That might actually be doable. The Dolphins-Bills game next week is big because the Dolphins don't need another division loss. If the Dolphins finish strong, and the Jets slip just a bit, Miami can steal it at the wire.

This is correct, and what I'm hoping for (obviously). If they win in Buffalo, people will probably take a little more notice.

 

[big_donkey]

Balt & NE = early vacation. book it

 

[Aaronl5]

So if Miami wins out they win the division - if Jets win out they win the division - NE needs help.

 

[bostonfred]

It is still very possible for the Patriots to sweep, or at least win three out of four. They get two easy games, then Arizona flies to New England not only making the 3000 mile flight, which has been death for teams this year, but play an outdoor game in late December in New England, which is tough for warm weather passing teams. And if Buffalo doesn't turn things around, they may be a disheartened team playing week 17 with no chance at the playoffs and playing a team that has something to play for.

It is not possible for both Baltimore and Pittsburgh to win out, since they play each other. The Pats have to root for the loser of that game to lose one of their other tough games, or for the Jets to falter again next week. They're on the outside looking in for sure, but they've got a better shot than anyone expected after Brady went down.

 

[Die]

So if Miami wins out they win the division - if Jets win out they win the division - NE needs help.

If Miami wins out and they tie the Jets at 11-5 the tiebreakers fall Miami's way. First tiebreaker is head-to-head record which is a 1-1 split. Second tiebreaker is division record and they both have 2 losses there. Next tie breaker is common games, and in nondivisional common games, the fish only have 1 loss (wk 2 @ ARZ) while the Jets have 3 (Chargers, Raiders, Broncos) so the Dolphins win the East. Miami can even lose to either the 49ers or Chiefs and they'd still win the division if they tied the Jets at 10-6. Its a loss to the Bills this week that would potentially wreck them with a 3rd division loss. They'd need the Jets to also lose to the Bills if that happens. Of course you're handing all these wins to the Bills they are liable to get back in the race too.To put it simply, I think if the Dolphins beat the Bills next weekend, then its highly likely Miami will be playing for the division title in week 17.

 

[Die]

It is still very possible for the Patriots to sweep, or at least win three out of four. They get two easy games, then Arizona flies to New England not only making the 3000 mile flight, which has been death for teams this year, but play an outdoor game in late December in New England, which is tough for warm weather passing teams. And if Buffalo doesn't turn things around, they may be a disheartened team playing week 17 with no chance at the playoffs and playing a team that has something to play for. It is not possible for both Baltimore and Pittsburgh to win out, since they play each other. The Pats have to root for the loser of that game to lose one of their other tough games, or for the Jets to falter again next week. They're on the outside looking in for sure, but they've got a better shot than anyone expected after Brady went down.

NFL Ranks by team sacks:1. Steelers 422. Cowboys 403. Eagles 394. Giants 365. Jets 356. Titans 34The Steelers are 0-2 against teams that can pressure the QB (Eagles, Giants) and have looked ugly doing it. Dallas ranks #2 and is up next. They draw the Titans in 3 weeks. Even the Ravens are somewhat up there at 9th and gave them some trouble. The Steelers are a good team but they don't just have a tough schedule - its a string of bad matchups in particular for them. Their next 3 opponents are strong (the Ravens less so) on harassing QBs. The Steelers will have to prove they can beat the other 5 teams on that list. I have a hard time getting a read on the Ravens. In theory they win by playing good defense and running the ball, and Flacco is just a rookie trying to figure things out. But then you see things like Clayton having 164 yards receiving and it turns heads. The Ravens are 6-1 in their last 7, and every single one of those wins have been blowouts. They dismantled the Eagles so completely that Reid benched McNabb. They'll play the Steelers and Cowboys in back-to-back weeks and that will be very interesting. I have a hard time imagining Flacco as a rookie toppling the Steelers from their throne in the AFC North regardless.I don't see the Patriots beating out either team.

 

[BusMan]

Don't underestimate the Broncos ability to lose the AFC West. Of course, the Chargers would have to start winning for that to happen. That said, nothing has been locked up yet for Denver.

 

[David Yudkin]

Don't underestimate the Broncos ability to lose the AFC West. Of course, the Chargers would have to start winning for that to happen. That said, nothing has been locked up yet for Denver.

DEN at 7-5SD at 4-8DEN needs any combination of two wins or SD losses to clinch.DEN plays KC, @CAR, BUF, @SDSD plays OAK, @KC, @TB, DENI suppose anything could happen, but I doubt it will.

 

[Utter Chaos]

New York Jets has the remaining schedule which is soft: Likely final record 12-5

Indianapolis has the remaining schedule which is soft: Likely final record 12-5 (I think the Titans rest their starters in week 17)

Are the Jets and the Colts planning on squeezing that 17th game in on a Wednesday?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think it comes down to Balt/NE

Personally I think NE is out. But ya never know

 

[David Yudkin]

AFC East could end up a mess.

Let's say the Jets beat SF, BUF, SEA and lose to MIA. They end up 11-5, 4-2 in the division, 7-5 in conference.

Let's say the Pats win out and end up 11-5, 4-2 in the division, 4-2 in the division, 7-5 in conference.

Let's say the Dolphins win out and end up 11-5, 4-2 in the division, 8-4 in conference.

In that scenario, Pats and Phins would be 7-1 against common opponents (which would eliminate NYJ from first place consideration as they would be 5-3). But MIA would win the AFC East with a better conference record than NE.

Potentially, there could be other 11-5 teams. The non first place team between PIT/BAL and IND as well. Things would get even crazier if the Jets, Pats, Ravens, and Colts all tied at 11-5. I'm not sure how they would account for head-to-head records if the teams did not all play each other.

 

[BettorFan]

The Jets win the AFC EAST. Close thread

 

[djcolts]

AFC East could end up a mess.

Let's say the Jets beat SF, BUF, SEA and lose to MIA. They end up 11-5, 4-2 in the division, 7-5 in conference.

Let's say the Pats win out and end up 11-5, 4-2 in the division, 4-2 in the division, 7-5 in conference.

Let's say the Dolphins win out and end up 11-5, 4-2 in the division, 8-4 in conference.

In that scenario, Pats and Phins would be 7-1 against common opponents (which would eliminate NYJ from first place consideration as they would be 5-3). But MIA would win the AFC East with a better conference record than NE.

Potentially, there could be other 11-5 teams. The non first place team between PIT/BAL and IND as well. Things would get even crazier if the Jets, Pats, Ravens, and Colts all tied at 11-5. I'm not sure how they would account for head-to-head records if the teams did not all play each other.

Three or More Clubs (Wild Card)

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

Strength of victory.

Strength of schedule.

Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

Best net points in conference games.

Best net points in all games.

Best net touchdowns in all games.

Coin toss

When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

In your scenario (Pats, Jets, Colts and Ravens all at 11-5 and the Dolphins winning the AFC East at 11-5) - the Colts would have at worst a 9-3 conference record (let's assume they beat Detroit in this scenario - and stick with 9-3), the Ravens would have either a 9-3 conference record or a 8-4 conference record depending on whether they lose to an NFC or AFC opponent. Jets would have a 7-5 conference record and Pats a 7-5 conference record. The Jets and Pats would be eliminated with the conference TB, and the Colts would be the #5, Ravens #6 seed (regardless on whether the Ravens lose to an AFC or NFC opponent).

 

[The Goat]

The Jets win the AFC EAST. Close thread

 

[The Goat]

The Jets win the AFC EAST. Close thread

 

[AAABatteries]

Don't underestimate the Broncos ability to lose the AFC West. Of course, the Chargers would have to start winning for that to happen. That said, nothing has been locked up yet for Denver.

DEN at 7-5SD at 4-8

DEN needs any combination of two wins or SD losses to clinch.

DEN plays KC, @CAR, BUF, @SD

SD plays OAK, @KC, @TB, DEN

I suppose anything could happen, but I doubt it will.

Anyone think Hochulli gets the nod for this one?

 

[The Goat]

The Jets win the AFC EAST. Close thread

 

[bryhamm]

AFC - South - Titans win - Playoff team #1

AFC - West - Broncos win - Playoff team # 2

That leaves 5 teams playing for 4 playoff spots for the AFC.

New York Jets

New England

Baltimore

Indianapolis

Pittsburg

Pittsburg has the remaining schedule which is tough: Likely final record 11-5

week 14 - vs Dallas

week 15 - @ Baltimore

week 16 - @ Tennessee

week 17 - vs Cleveland

Baltimore has the remaining schedule which is medium: Likely final record 11-5

week 14 - vs Washington

week 15 - vs Pittsburgh

week 16 - @ Dallas

week 17 - vs Jacksonville

New England has the remaining schedule which is soft: Likely final record 11-5

week 14 - @ Seattle

week 15 - @ Oakland

week 16 - vs Arizona

week 17 - @ Buffalo

New York Jets has the remaining schedule which is soft: Likely final record 12-5

week 14 - @ San Francisco

week 15 - vs Buffalo

week 16 - @ Seattle

week 17 - vs Miami

Indianapolis has the remaining schedule which is soft: Likely final record 12-5 (I think the Titans rest their starters in week 17)

week 14 - vs Cincinatti

week 15 - vs Detroit

week 16 - @ Jacksonville

week 17 - vs Tennessee

After looking at these remaining schedules, which team do think misses the playoffs ? I don't know the tie-breakers.

Edited to change week 15 Jets opponent to Buffalo.

Oops