Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Mike McCarthy revealed some early plans for the GB defense in his combine interview this week. It appears that, as expected, Nick Barnett and AJ Hawk will be the inside linebackers. Thanks to some solid reporting by the Packer beat writers (there have been multiple in-depth articles about the 3-4 out of Green Bay over the past month for any interested scheme :nerds: that enjoyed some of the other scheme-based stuff on FBG), we’re also getting an idea of who will play where.
Here’s the link to the full article (a solid read), which includes the pulled quote below.
What should we expect in Green Bay?
Unless Capers can find a very stout nose tackle, I think we’re likely to see more 1-gap fronts than 2-gap. That generally favors the weak inside linebacker, who won’t have to align head-up over a guard and should be able to roam a little more often. We’ve seen the pure 1-gap 3-4 front favor the RILB/WILB often in recent seasons, as those who remember our early discussions on Patrick Willis will attest – Keith Brooking, Donnie Edwards, etc, have all had big seasons as 3-4 WILBs. That’s especially the case when the SILB sheds blocks poorly or leaves the field in the nickel package. When the SILB is a talented player, however, and plays all three downs, there’s plenty of evidence – Sam Mills, Jay Foreman, James Farrior, Andra Davis – that the SILB can have 85+ solo tackle potential (regardless of who plays alongside).
So, who’s the better play?
I’ve never been a big fan of AJ Hawk. I think he’ll struggle to consistently shed blocks as a SILB. Although he showed flashes of becoming a decent tackle option late last season, I’m not sure that translates well to this scheme. The lack of a solid NT in front of him won’t help either. He’ll also have to contend with what should be an above-average run supporting LOLB (assuming that’s where Kampman ends up) and a decent pursuit backer in Barnett.
Unless the Packers provide above-average tackle opportunity, I think 85 solos is Hawk’s upside. That’s a sizable bump from his historical value, but doesn’t make him an immediate and certain LB2 in most leagues. I don’t see the 100 solos put up by Capers’ most recent SILB, Jay Foreman, in Hawk’s future. I think I’d rather have Barnett here, though I’m not sure he can be reliably projected to 90+ solos either. For now, I think if anyone falls in love with Hawk as the next big 3-4 IDP option based on the article above, it’s worth considering selling him for LB2 value or better.
Here’s the link to the full article (a solid read), which includes the pulled quote below.
What does that mean for us? Historically, Dom Capers has been one of those ‘tweener 3-4 coaches – some 1-gap, some 2-gap, plenty of zone blitz – a multiple front 3-4 defense of sorts. There’s plenty of data to sift through here, too.Firstly, Capers will often call his strong inside backer Buck or BLB and his weak inside backer Mac or MLB. Expect some confusion later if we see Hawk listed as a BLB on depth charts/gamebooks despite reading the story above. Capers has had plenty of talented backers in his coaching days. He put Levon Kirkland, Sam Mills and Micheal Barrow on the strong side early in his career, when I think he was more of a 2-gap coach. There weren’t monster tackle numbers from that group, although those teams were often flush with linebacker talent. Most recently, with Houston, he used Jay Foreman on the strong side and Jamie Sharper (arguably the much better linebacker) on the weak side. I’m not sure when Capers began using more and more slanted, 1-gap principles, but it wouldn’t be surprising to find that he used more 1-gap in Houston than earlier in his career. Sharper and Foreman were both very productive tacklers, with a very slight edge to Sharper over a three year period.
What should we expect in Green Bay?
Unless Capers can find a very stout nose tackle, I think we’re likely to see more 1-gap fronts than 2-gap. That generally favors the weak inside linebacker, who won’t have to align head-up over a guard and should be able to roam a little more often. We’ve seen the pure 1-gap 3-4 front favor the RILB/WILB often in recent seasons, as those who remember our early discussions on Patrick Willis will attest – Keith Brooking, Donnie Edwards, etc, have all had big seasons as 3-4 WILBs. That’s especially the case when the SILB sheds blocks poorly or leaves the field in the nickel package. When the SILB is a talented player, however, and plays all three downs, there’s plenty of evidence – Sam Mills, Jay Foreman, James Farrior, Andra Davis – that the SILB can have 85+ solo tackle potential (regardless of who plays alongside).
So, who’s the better play?
I’ve never been a big fan of AJ Hawk. I think he’ll struggle to consistently shed blocks as a SILB. Although he showed flashes of becoming a decent tackle option late last season, I’m not sure that translates well to this scheme. The lack of a solid NT in front of him won’t help either. He’ll also have to contend with what should be an above-average run supporting LOLB (assuming that’s where Kampman ends up) and a decent pursuit backer in Barnett.
Unless the Packers provide above-average tackle opportunity, I think 85 solos is Hawk’s upside. That’s a sizable bump from his historical value, but doesn’t make him an immediate and certain LB2 in most leagues. I don’t see the 100 solos put up by Capers’ most recent SILB, Jay Foreman, in Hawk’s future. I think I’d rather have Barnett here, though I’m not sure he can be reliably projected to 90+ solos either. For now, I think if anyone falls in love with Hawk as the next big 3-4 IDP option based on the article above, it’s worth considering selling him for LB2 value or better.
Old-school Eagles WR
Old-school Eagles WR
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