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AL Playoff Early Matchups... (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter wilked
- Start date
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
ALCS:
Yanks, Angels
Yanks, Angels
RenoHightower
Footballguy
Tribe in 5.
Sox in 4.
Sox in 4.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Cleveland has a two game lead over the Angels and the Indians play a double dip today. Did they flip a coin or something where the Indians have home field if they tie because they split their season series? Both teams will just set up their rotations from here so two games isn't a lot to make up because things are fairly unpredictable when teams are already in. I'll just save my vote until the match-ups are cemented.
wilked
Footballguy
The Red Sox would almost certainly take the shorter series if they have the best record due to their advantage in rotation depth (just as the Tribe would almost certainly take the longer series due to their top-heavy rotation), so I think we can say with some confidence:
Yankees@Indians, Long series (Carmona and Sabathia twice)
Angels@Sox, Short Series (Beckett / Lackey twice, 4th starter used)
Yankees@Indians, Long series (Carmona and Sabathia twice)
Angels@Sox, Short Series (Beckett / Lackey twice, 4th starter used)
wilked
Footballguy
Indians win the second tie breaker (division record)
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Well two wins for the Indians probably does it then. I'll still hold my comments until I know which of the Red Sox and Angels have homefield which I think is critical.
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wilked
Footballguy
thanks for checking in...
wilked
Footballguy
Huh? Angels are virtually a lock to finish with the 3rd best record of the division winners...who finishes first and second for the Sox / Tribe is irrelevant to home field / opponent
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I'm sure you're always glad to see me.
wilked
Footballguy
I'm glad to get you up to speed on playoff scenarios, though I can understand why you would be a step behindI'm sure you're always glad to see me.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
If the Angels win their last 4 games and Boston wins two of five Angels have home field advantage. How is that a virtual lock? Please try to use your probability knowledge in these simple situations also. Thanks.
I'm going to take Yankees in 5, Red Sox in 4.
At first glance, it looks like the Tribe have a good shot against the Yanks, especially with a nice SP advantage and the fact Sabathia and Carmona both may be able to go twice. However, Sabathia has pitched a ton this year, and asking him for 2 shut down starts against the Yankees is a bit much. I think he may be able to get 1, 7 or 8 inning performance only allowing a few runs....but I can see the other being a 6 inning, 4 or 5 run start.
Carmona is a converted relief pitcher with over 200 innings in him this year too. Again, simply asking too much of him to be pitching lights out in October. Optimistically I see two mediocre starts....with a very real chance of getting touched up in one. The Yankee hitters are smart, and patient, and will be able to layoff the sinkers in the dirt. In short, the Yankee hitters are going to wear down and out the Cleveland pitchers.
Of course, the great equalizer here is that the Yankees pitching is awful. Wang and Pettite are okay, but I don't see either one as a dominant, lights out starter. I think the Yanks have just enough to advance to the ALCS, before fizzling out.
Red Sox have been reeling the past few weeks. But they've been without ManRam and Youkilis, two huge components of their offense. Between their on base percentages and the protection/thread Ramirez is in that lineup, this team will be entirely different, and I feel back to the form that led them to the best records in the majors. They have 3 starting pitchers that can overwhelm any lineup in baseball, and their bullpen doesn't concern me that much, so long as Okajami can overcome this dead arm deal. I think they just have too much here for the Angels, and should be able to take them out fairly quickly. Only concern is coast to coast travel.
At first glance, it looks like the Tribe have a good shot against the Yanks, especially with a nice SP advantage and the fact Sabathia and Carmona both may be able to go twice. However, Sabathia has pitched a ton this year, and asking him for 2 shut down starts against the Yankees is a bit much. I think he may be able to get 1, 7 or 8 inning performance only allowing a few runs....but I can see the other being a 6 inning, 4 or 5 run start.
Carmona is a converted relief pitcher with over 200 innings in him this year too. Again, simply asking too much of him to be pitching lights out in October. Optimistically I see two mediocre starts....with a very real chance of getting touched up in one. The Yankee hitters are smart, and patient, and will be able to layoff the sinkers in the dirt. In short, the Yankee hitters are going to wear down and out the Cleveland pitchers.
Of course, the great equalizer here is that the Yankees pitching is awful. Wang and Pettite are okay, but I don't see either one as a dominant, lights out starter. I think the Yanks have just enough to advance to the ALCS, before fizzling out.
Red Sox have been reeling the past few weeks. But they've been without ManRam and Youkilis, two huge components of their offense. Between their on base percentages and the protection/thread Ramirez is in that lineup, this team will be entirely different, and I feel back to the form that led them to the best records in the majors. They have 3 starting pitchers that can overwhelm any lineup in baseball, and their bullpen doesn't concern me that much, so long as Okajami can overcome this dead arm deal. I think they just have too much here for the Angels, and should be able to take them out fairly quickly. Only concern is coast to coast travel.
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Insoxicated
I see there are a good amount of people voting with their hearts and not their heads
BOS vs ANA:
3 Home Games (.714 - 5-2) = 2 Wins
2 Road Games (.333 - 1-2) = 1 Win
NY vs CLE
3 Road games (1.000 - 3-0) = 3 wins
2 Road games (1.000 - 3-0) = 2 wins
----
SOX in 5
NY IN 4 (assuming CLE can pull ONE out)
BOS vs ANA:
3 Home Games (.714 - 5-2) = 2 Wins
2 Road Games (.333 - 1-2) = 1 Win
NY vs CLE
3 Road games (1.000 - 3-0) = 3 wins
2 Road games (1.000 - 3-0) = 2 wins
----
SOX in 5
NY IN 4 (assuming CLE can pull ONE out)
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wilked
Footballguy
What do you consider the odds are that Angels win the last 4 (I am sure you recognize that they will be pulling playoff starters early, and playing the B team), all on the road? It is less then 20%, probably less then 10... Now consider what the odds are of Boston losing 3 of 5 at home are? Finally, figure out what the odds of both of these happening are
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
So Boston is a "virtual lock" then? Please show your work.
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Insoxicated
92%?
Bobcat10
Footballguy
I'm glad to get you up to speed on playoff scenarios, though I can understand why you would be a step behindI'm sure you're always glad to see me.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I wonder if Wilked is working his magic? 
I hope he takes into consideration every pitching match-up, all teams home records this year, all road teams road records this year, pitchers tendencies on grass, emotional impact of already clinching a playoff birth, historical evaluation of past years of teams in the same situations, and wind speed and direction.
I hope he takes into consideration every pitching match-up, all teams home records this year, all road teams road records this year, pitchers tendencies on grass, emotional impact of already clinching a playoff birth, historical evaluation of past years of teams in the same situations, and wind speed and direction.
wilked
Footballguy
yep. And since they lose tiebreakers to Cle and Bos, they will almost certainly be the 3 seed. The 1 seed is up for grabs though...
RenoHightower
Footballguy
I see you used your head in your analysis as well. How many of those 5 games did Sabathia and Carmona pitch?
Sammy3469
Footballguy
I don't see how either series isn't a pick 'em at this point.
Even in a long series against Cleveland the Yanks will be able to go with something like Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, Hughes/Mussina/Wang, Wang/Pettitte which for most practical purposes is about as good as what Cleveland is throwing out there especially experience-wise. Yeah I know Clemens was just pulled, but I'll be shocked if he doesn't get shot up again. The greater worry I'd have is that the lineup is a little banged up right now.
I have no idea how the Sox-Angels series is going to go. The Sox have been resting so many people it's hard to get a read on whether they're be ready playoff time or if they really are in a funk.
Even in a long series against Cleveland the Yanks will be able to go with something like Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, Hughes/Mussina/Wang, Wang/Pettitte which for most practical purposes is about as good as what Cleveland is throwing out there especially experience-wise. Yeah I know Clemens was just pulled, but I'll be shocked if he doesn't get shot up again. The greater worry I'd have is that the lineup is a little banged up right now.
I have no idea how the Sox-Angels series is going to go. The Sox have been resting so many people it's hard to get a read on whether they're be ready playoff time or if they really are in a funk.
shadyridr
Footballguy
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Insoxicated
I will throw out that they were wihtout manny/youk/coco for a good bit of this recent run. Now.. that said I agree that there are several factors that are VERY disconcerting as a Sox fan:1) Dice K has pitched 10-15% more innings this year than he did last year.. it shows. He's gassed2) Okajima was ridden hard this year and it shows. He's going through a dead-arm period and I'm not confident he can pull out3) Papelbon seems well rested but had a bad appearance or two recently. That said he was unreal since the break before that. 4) Bucholz is unproven in high-pressure playoff situations.5) Wake's back still isn't right6) Youkilis has been slumping leading into his "rest".. .not sure if he'll recoverBeckettSchillingDice KBucholz/Lester/whoeverNot bad... I don't really feel this is a WS squad though...
NY/NJMFDIVER
Footballguy
Yanks in 3
Angels in 4
Angels in 4
Bobcat10
Footballguy
Correct.CC = 0
Carmona = 2 (would have won one if Borowski didn't bomb in the 9th with a big lead, non-save situation)
It's October, #####es. Reno, you might want to think about that.
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
Yeah, they're THAT good...
NY/NJMFDIVER
Footballguy
Just my gut. I get the feeling they'll come out firing, and if they beat CC at the jake in game one, they'll roll.Yeah, they're THAT good...
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
Fair enough. I think you're wrong, but I guess we'll see...Just my gut. I get the feeling they'll come out firing, and if they beat CC at the jake in game one, they'll roll.Yeah, they're THAT good...
David Yudkin
Footballguy
By comparison, no NL team has clinched a playoff spot.
ThisGuy
Ignored by Nipsey
The Mets have completely dropped the ball here. The West has been exciting all year and the Central is, well, the NL Central. BUt the Mets should have had this thing locked up at least 2 weeks ago.
NY/NJMFDIVER
Footballguy
Believe me, its not nut of arrogance or totally blind homerism(maybe legally blind). If you would do the incredibly boring search of looking back at what I said of this race, most Yank fans have craved the Indians, and I've been very wary of them. The Angels are wounded, Shields isn't what he was, and nor is that offense. I definately respect them, and they are pretty hot themselves. Maybe its a reflection of me thinking if the Yanks are going to win, its going to need to be a short series, because going back to the Jake for CC or Carmona, well, as a Yank fan, been there, done that, and it ends badly! Beating Sabthia would be a nice psychological edge.Fair enough. I think you're wrong, but I guess we'll see...Just my gut. I get the feeling they'll come out firing, and if they beat CC at the jake in game one, they'll roll.Yeah, they're THAT good...
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Alright I've watched the Indians a lot and the other three enough to make a logical prediction. First of all I offer a disclaimer that I hate the Boston Red Sox more than I hate plaque.
I don't think these playoff matchups are optimum for the two teams I want to win (Indians and Angels) and I'd be very comfortable in predicting those two win in the first round if the Angels were playing the Yankees and the Sux were playing the Indians.
That said I think Boston has a nice advantage playing three at home at Fenway. I have trouble believing the Angels will lose at home but I also have trouble believing the Red Sox will lose at home either. Angels have to win game two of this series, otherwise it will be over in 4. I don't think much of Boston's line-up and I'd walk Papi every single time and make those other guys win it. I'd do the same with Vlad. These two teams are so similar and I like their bullpens and their starting pitching. I'll say the Sux win in five but will root for the Angles like they were the Tigers.
Indians are way under the radar and people still doubt them. They have that magic this year, winning so many games late and just having that confidence that is underestimated. Yankees overlooked the Tigers a bit last year and once they figured out the Tigers were a tough team, it was too late. If they take the Indians for granite this series will be over in four games. Yankees have an incredible hitting team but they don't match up well against left-handed pitching and Carmona and his sinker will give them trouble. Do the Yankees have enough pitching? I'm guessing no. They are probably going to have to steal a game from Borowski to win this series but Betancourt and Perez will ensure the Indians can add late runs to pad leads. I like the Indians in this series, three games to one.
I don't think these playoff matchups are optimum for the two teams I want to win (Indians and Angels) and I'd be very comfortable in predicting those two win in the first round if the Angels were playing the Yankees and the Sux were playing the Indians.
That said I think Boston has a nice advantage playing three at home at Fenway. I have trouble believing the Angels will lose at home but I also have trouble believing the Red Sox will lose at home either. Angels have to win game two of this series, otherwise it will be over in 4. I don't think much of Boston's line-up and I'd walk Papi every single time and make those other guys win it. I'd do the same with Vlad. These two teams are so similar and I like their bullpens and their starting pitching. I'll say the Sux win in five but will root for the Angles like they were the Tigers.
Indians are way under the radar and people still doubt them. They have that magic this year, winning so many games late and just having that confidence that is underestimated. Yankees overlooked the Tigers a bit last year and once they figured out the Tigers were a tough team, it was too late. If they take the Indians for granite this series will be over in four games. Yankees have an incredible hitting team but they don't match up well against left-handed pitching and Carmona and his sinker will give them trouble. Do the Yankees have enough pitching? I'm guessing no. They are probably going to have to steal a game from Borowski to win this series but Betancourt and Perez will ensure the Indians can add late runs to pad leads. I like the Indians in this series, three games to one.
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
I would say you have sized up the situation correctly. The one thing that could work against the Tribe is playoff experience, but with guys like Nixon in the clubhouse, the team could stay grounded and not be overwhelmed.Anyone who thinks CC will not be able to handle the Yanks lineup needs to take a fresh look at him. This is not the same CC NY saw last two years ago; he's better and changed his routine of attacking hitters and will have the advantage against NY at the Jake. Plus, if NY is trying to decide between old farts Clemens and Mussina for game 3 starter...
I think Steinbrenner will have to wait for Santana to become available.
Pai Mei
Footballguy
there's been a fair share of playoff series where the team that won the head-to-head season series lost. last year, the twins won the season series over the a's 6-4 and got swept in their alds. the tigers lost the season series to the Yankees 5-2 and won their alds 3-1.
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NY/NJMFDIVER
Footballguy
I'm a Yankee fan, who through this and other threads, has given the tribe their props. Yank fans were lining up for this series, but I've been a big proponet of being careful what you wish for. That said, as a Yankee fan last year, the formula for Tiger success was easy to see last year. They were similar to the good angel teams in a power bullpen, they'll have tough ABs, and first-to-third you to death. Once they took Game 2, I had no confidence in the Unit(but I didn't think Kenny "Stinkpalm" Rogers would throw a game like that either) and you coudn't have any faith in Wright as a Yankee fan(coincidentally, a top 3 all time Torre mistake to me, starting him over Wang). However, if the Yanks can split in Cleveland, then the Yanks get Byrd and Westbrook at the stadium. An huge advantage, even with Clemens, Moose or Phil going. Wanger game 5, Pettite on 3 days rest if neccessary, I like the Yanks, but I'm a homer too so what do I know.For the record, I like them to sweep. If they can get past Sabathia, which when they have to game plan aces, they can usually put together the ABs necessary to give them an advantage, I think Cleveland will face an uphill road thereafter. I like Pettite against the lefties in Game 2, and if the Yanks are up 2 coming home, I think they step on their throats. It should be great though, I'm really looking forward to all these series, particualrly the AL ones.Tom Servo said:I would say you have sized up the situation correctly. The one thing that could work against the Tribe is playoff experience, but with guys like Nixon in the clubhouse, the team could stay grounded and not be overwhelmed.Anyone who thinks CC will not be able to handle the Yanks lineup needs to take a fresh look at him. This is not the same CC NY saw last two years ago; he's better and changed his routine of attacking hitters and will have the advantage against NY at the Jake. Plus, if NY is trying to decide between old farts Clemens and Mussina for game 3 starter...I think Steinbrenner will have to wait for Santana to become available.
