Alex Smith: Over/Under 20.5 completions tonight (1 Viewer)

[Alpine]

Interesting total/prop bet. The last two weeks he's had 27 completions each time. But prior to that he's rarely gotten to 20.

If you take his average for the season, 19, and then average that with the Arizona Defense's avg completions allowed, 23, you can see how they came up with 21.5.

Which gameplan do the 49'ers bring tonight, the 'new Alex Smith' pass-heavy air attack, in which case he should complete 25ish easily, or the conservative Frank Gore show, in which case he might only have 16.

Thoughts?

 

[TommyGilmore]

I would bet the over, only because I think San Francisco will be playing from behind in the 2nd half.

 

[bweiser]

i'll be rooting for the over. but not actually making a bet on it. i would, however, expect them to continue the spread offense. i think we would have read if it was being changed.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I would bet the over, only because I think San Francisco will be playing from behind in the 2nd half.

 

[ScottyDog]

I would think it is going to be a shoot out. I just called my bookie and put $6800 on the over, wish me luck.

Interesting total/prop bet. The last two weeks he's had 27 completions each time. But prior to that he's rarely gotten to 20.If you take his average for the season, 19, and then average that with the Arizona Defense's avg completions allowed, 23, you can see how they came up with 21.5.Which gameplan do the 49'ers bring tonight, the 'new Alex Smith' pass-heavy air attack, in which case he should complete 25ish easily, or the conservative Frank Gore show, in which case he might only have 16.Thoughts?

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

I would bet the over, only because I think San Francisco will be playing from behind in the 2nd half.

I think they'll be down early tonight.

 

[Casting Couch]

Like the over.

 

[teamroc]

I would bet the over, only because I think San Francisco will be playing from behind in the 2nd half.

I think they'll be down early tonight.

In sports betting, you want to figure out which direct the masses are going, then go the other direction. I'll take the under.

 

[Alpine]

In sports betting, you want to figure out which direct the masses are going, then go the other direction. I'll take the under.

Not with prop bets, these are where you will usually find the value, and don't apply to the usual contrarian strategy.On the spread and game total, I'd wholeheartedly agree with you. But with these player props, they are usually based on season averages rather than trends, and the linesmakers simply don't have time to price them all correctly. And since they typically juice up the lines (-115 on both over and under), they can rely on their hold % alone, across all props, to be net positive for the night.But keep in mind that these props usually have a max bet of only $250 ($500 if you're lucky), so the books know that they can be exploited. And if you bet a lot of props and win, the book will limit your max bet to $5 in no time.

 

[Shermanator]

I would bet the over, only because I think San Francisco will be playing from behind in the 2nd half.

I think they'll be down early tonight.

In sports betting, you want to figure out which direct the masses are going, then go the other direction. I'll take the under.

why?

 

[Alpine]

I would think it is going to be a shoot out. I just called my bookie and put $6800 on the over, wish me luck.

Introduce me to a bookie that will accept $6800 wagers on prop bets and I'll buy you a new car this time next year.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Any thoughts on Josh Morgan?

This game or otherwise?

He has two straight games of 6 catches, plus Detroit in 2 weeks.

 

[ScottyDog]

It better not be a Ford Pinto.

I would think it is going to be a shoot out. I just called my bookie and put $6800 on the over, wish me luck.

Introduce me to a bookie that will accept $6800 wagers on prop bets and I'll buy you a new car this time next year.

 

[Challenge Everything]

16 after 3

1st = 6

2nd = 9

3rd = 1

 

[teamroc]

I would bet the over, only because I think San Francisco will be playing from behind in the 2nd half.

I think they'll be down early tonight.

In sports betting, you want to figure out which direct the masses are going, then go the other direction. I'll take the under.

why?

Vegas is smarter then the masses. Everyone liked the over, he came in under.

 

[T Bell]

Yep, don't screw with Vegas. I would've taken the over too.

 

[Casting Couch]

I would think it is going to be a shoot out. I just called my bookie and put $6800 on the over, wish me luck.