Alex Smith Trade (1 Viewer)

[fridayfrenzy]

If their LT can move to RT and they draft Joekel, then they have a strong O line, particularly for passing.

They just signed Winston at RT last year to a contract of 4 years/22 million.

 

[TheFanatic]

If their LT can move to RT and they draft Joekel, then they have a strong O line, particularly for passing.

They just signed Winston at RT last year to a contract of 4 years/22 million.

And they aren't going to get him to move to guard without paying him T money. I think Joekel is not going to be drafted 1.1. I'm guessing a DLineman at 1.1.

 

[meyerj31]

If their LT can move to RT and they draft Joekel, then they have a strong O line, particularly for passing.

They just signed Winston at RT last year to a contract of 4 years/22 million.

And they aren't going to get him to move to guard without paying him T money. I think Joekel is not going to be drafted 1.1. I'm guessing a DLineman at 1.1.

Fisher is gonna be #1.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Fisher or Milliner imo

 

[TheFanatic]

If their LT can move to RT and they draft Joekel, then they have a strong O line, particularly for passing.

They just signed Winston at RT last year to a contract of 4 years/22 million.

And they aren't going to get him to move to guard without paying him T money. I think Joekel is not going to be drafted 1.1. I'm guessing a DLineman at 1.1.

Fisher is gonna be #1.

If the chiefs have a RT they just paid big money to, a LT they just franchised, how can they take a LT 1.1? Maybe Andy's a good salesman. He sold Bowe on coming back with Alex Smith as his QB which half the board has called a bum. Mabye he can convince one of those guys to play guard. If so, thats one helluva strong OL. One even a chump like Smith can check down to the TE and RB behind...

 

[IHEARTFF]

Convincing someone to move to guard is a challenge, but 2 great LT is better than 1. 5 great LT would be the GOAT O-Line.

 

[drummer]

Matt Cassel - 58.9 completion %, 13,495 yards, 82 TD, 57 INT, 24 Fumbles, 80.4 Passer RatingAlex Smith - 59.3 completion %, 14,280 yards, 81 TD, 63 INT, 36 Fumbles, 79.1 Passer Rating

The Chachinator finds this greatly misleading.

Particularly when you look at the trends over the last four years. One is trending up and one is trending down. And one just got the best QB improving HC in the league while another is being scouted by the Cardinals.This post is going to be so bumpable later on. I envision something like the Cheifs having as many or more wins in their first four games than they did all of last year and the haters will say, "But Alex Smith's numbers aren't that great. He's only averaging 220 yards passing 2 TD's and .6 picks a game," while those that know anything about football (real football, not this silly #### we do here) will point to the W's.

You're one of those guys. PRobably called for Smith to be benched the second they lost the NFCC in 2011. In the right system, the guy can win. He didn't lose the NFCC game and was a biscuit of getting you guys to the SB two years ago. Just because you're a homer doesn't mean you know football.

You know they only completed one 3rd down that whole game don't you? He was in the right system. He got replaced because in his second year within that system, he wasn't improving within it. That's why he is no longer the starter in SF.

 

[BaBastage]

Matt Cassel - 58.9 completion %, 13,495 yards, 82 TD, 57 INT, 24 Fumbles, 80.4 Passer RatingAlex Smith - 59.3 completion %, 14,280 yards, 81 TD, 63 INT, 36 Fumbles, 79.1 Passer Rating

The Chachinator finds this greatly misleading.

Particularly when you look at the trends over the last four years. One is trending up and one is trending down. And one just got the best QB improving HC in the league while another is being scouted by the Cardinals.This post is going to be so bumpable later on. I envision something like the Cheifs having as many or more wins in their first four games than they did all of last year and the haters will say, "But Alex Smith's numbers aren't that great. He's only averaging 220 yards passing 2 TD's and .6 picks a game," while those that know anything about football (real football, not this silly #### we do here) will point to the W's.

You're one of those guys. PRobably called for Smith to be benched the second they lost the NFCC in 2011. In the right system, the guy can win. He didn't lose the NFCC game and was a biscuit of getting you guys to the SB two years ago. Just because you're a homer doesn't mean you know football.

You know they only completed one 3rd down that whole game don't you? He was in the right system. He got replaced because in his second year within that system, he wasn't improving within it. That's why he is no longer the starter in SF.

Drummer - You know I've supported you in this debate, so take this for what it's worth.As a 49er fan, you've got to be happy with this trade, right? So how about you just let things lie until after it's official? Seems to me there's still another week where someone might change their mind and pull the plug on the deal.

 

[drummer]

Matt Cassel - 58.9 completion %, 13,495 yards, 82 TD, 57 INT, 24 Fumbles, 80.4 Passer Rating

Alex Smith - 59.3 completion %, 14,280 yards, 81 TD, 63 INT, 36 Fumbles, 79.1 Passer Rating

The Chachinator finds this greatly misleading.

Particularly when you look at the trends over the last four years. One is trending up and one is trending down. And one just got the best QB improving HC in the league while another is being scouted by the Cardinals.This post is going to be so bumpable later on. I envision something like the Cheifs having as many or more wins in their first four games than they did all of last year and the haters will say, "But Alex Smith's numbers aren't that great. He's only averaging 220 yards passing 2 TD's and .6 picks a game," while those that know anything about football (real football, not this silly #### we do here) will point to the W's.

You're one of those guys. PRobably called for Smith to be benched the second they lost the NFCC in 2011. In the right system, the guy can win. He didn't lose the NFCC game and was a biscuit of getting you guys to the SB two years ago. Just because you're a homer doesn't mean you know football.

You know they only completed one 3rd down that whole game don't you? He was in the right system. He got replaced because in his second year within that system, he wasn't improving within it. That's why he is no longer the starter in SF.

Drummer - You know I've supported you in this debate, so take this for what it's worth.As a 49er fan, you've got to be happy with this trade, right? So how about you just let things lie until after it's official? Seems to me there's still another week where someone might change their mind and pull the plug on the deal.

Whether the trade happens or not, it's about the reality of Smith as a QB (not just the only QB in SF since 2005 BTW) in SF. The reality is that he is no longer the starter and in the long term plans in SF. I can't even call him a solid QB since he again has only played 2 full seasons in his entire career in SF. He was either benched or injured. Those 2 full seasons aren't even a statistic. That's just plain reality. He was benched by almost every HC except Jim Tomsula, who was HC for just one game.

 

[TheFanatic]

Matt Cassel - 58.9 completion %, 13,495 yards, 82 TD, 57 INT, 24 Fumbles, 80.4 Passer RatingAlex Smith - 59.3 completion %, 14,280 yards, 81 TD, 63 INT, 36 Fumbles, 79.1 Passer Rating

The Chachinator finds this greatly misleading.

Particularly when you look at the trends over the last four years. One is trending up and one is trending down. And one just got the best QB improving HC in the league while another is being scouted by the Cardinals.This post is going to be so bumpable later on. I envision something like the Cheifs having as many or more wins in their first four games than they did all of last year and the haters will say, "But Alex Smith's numbers aren't that great. He's only averaging 220 yards passing 2 TD's and .6 picks a game," while those that know anything about football (real football, not this silly #### we do here) will point to the W's.

You're one of those guys. PRobably called for Smith to be benched the second they lost the NFCC in 2011. In the right system, the guy can win. He didn't lose the NFCC game and was a biscuit of getting you guys to the SB two years ago. Just because you're a homer doesn't mean you know football.

You know they only completed one 3rd down that whole game don't you? He was in the right system. He got replaced because in his second year within that system, he wasn't improving within it. That's why he is no longer the starter in SF.

To say he wasn't improving in the system is not at all accurate. But hey, keep stomping on the guy even after he got you guys the 34th pick. Pretty much shows your bias right there... How about agree to disagree on this one?

 

[meyerj31]

If their LT can move to RT and they draft Joekel, then they have a strong O line, particularly for passing.

They just signed Winston at RT last year to a contract of 4 years/22 million.

And they aren't going to get him to move to guard without paying him T money. I think Joekel is not going to be drafted 1.1. I'm guessing a DLineman at 1.1.

Fisher is gonna be #1.

If the chiefs have a RT they just paid big money to, a LT they just franchised, how can they take a LT 1.1? Maybe Andy's a good salesman. He sold Bowe on coming back with Alex Smith as his QB which half the board has called a bum. Mabye he can convince one of those guys to play guard. If so, thats one helluva strong OL. One even a chump like Smith can check down to the TE and RB behind...

Here's an excerpt from a Q&A from a Packer beat writer... Vic's daily blog is worth the read for any football fan, not just Packer fans.Fan question:

I’m completely sold on this BAP stuff after the Jaguars what-ifs. Let’s say the Jaguars are completely in love with Fisher, have him far and away as number one on their board and they can’t trade back. If you pick him up, you have two players on your team making left-tackle money and only one starting left tackle. If you let him go, you’re letting the next team draft him. Which way do you go?

Vic's answer:

This is where it gets tough and I don’t have an answer for you except to say what I would do: Pick him. Since you brought up the Jaguars, I’ll give you the best real-life example of the scenario you created. In 1996, the Jaguars signed free agent Leon Searcy to the richest contract for an offensive lineman in history. The previous year, the Jaguars had drafted Tony Boselli. With Boselli and Searcy at the tackles, the Jaguars didn’t need Jonathan Ogden when they picked Kevin Hardy with the second overall pick of the ’96 draft. Who doesn’t need Jon Ogden?

 

[drummer]

Matt Cassel - 58.9 completion %, 13,495 yards, 82 TD, 57 INT, 24 Fumbles, 80.4 Passer Rating

Alex Smith - 59.3 completion %, 14,280 yards, 81 TD, 63 INT, 36 Fumbles, 79.1 Passer Rating

The Chachinator finds this greatly misleading.

Particularly when you look at the trends over the last four years. One is trending up and one is trending down. And one just got the best QB improving HC in the league while another is being scouted by the Cardinals.This post is going to be so bumpable later on. I envision something like the Cheifs having as many or more wins in their first four games than they did all of last year and the haters will say, "But Alex Smith's numbers aren't that great. He's only averaging 220 yards passing 2 TD's and .6 picks a game," while those that know anything about football (real football, not this silly #### we do here) will point to the W's.

You're one of those guys. PRobably called for Smith to be benched the second they lost the NFCC in 2011. In the right system, the guy can win. He didn't lose the NFCC game and was a biscuit of getting you guys to the SB two years ago. Just because you're a homer doesn't mean you know football.

You know they only completed one 3rd down that whole game don't you? He was in the right system. He got replaced because in his second year within that system, he wasn't improving within it. That's why he is no longer the starter in SF.

To say he wasn't improving in the system is not at all accurate. But hey, keep stomping on the guy even after he got you guys the 34th pick. Pretty much shows your bias right there... How about agree to disagree on this one?

It's as accurate as he being replaced by Kaepernick, who they added in more than 70 plays just in one game for him to run. Also, Smith's confidence was questioned after 2 consecutive games where the offense sputtered big time againt NYG and SEA respectively early last season.

I am not going to agree to disagree on your bias. I can pretty much tell you don't know anything about Smith and 49er football.

 

[TheFanatic]

Matt Cassel - 58.9 completion %, 13,495 yards, 82 TD, 57 INT, 24 Fumbles, 80.4 Passer Rating

Alex Smith - 59.3 completion %, 14,280 yards, 81 TD, 63 INT, 36 Fumbles, 79.1 Passer Rating

The Chachinator finds this greatly misleading.

Particularly when you look at the trends over the last four years. One is trending up and one is trending down. And one just got the best QB improving HC in the league while another is being scouted by the Cardinals.This post is going to be so bumpable later on. I envision something like the Cheifs having as many or more wins in their first four games than they did all of last year and the haters will say, "But Alex Smith's numbers aren't that great. He's only averaging 220 yards passing 2 TD's and .6 picks a game," while those that know anything about football (real football, not this silly #### we do here) will point to the W's.

You're one of those guys. PRobably called for Smith to be benched the second they lost the NFCC in 2011. In the right system, the guy can win. He didn't lose the NFCC game and was a biscuit of getting you guys to the SB two years ago. Just because you're a homer doesn't mean you know football.

You know they only completed one 3rd down that whole game don't you? He was in the right system. He got replaced because in his second year within that system, he wasn't improving within it. That's why he is no longer the starter in SF.

To say he wasn't improving in the system is not at all accurate. But hey, keep stomping on the guy even after he got you guys the 34th pick. Pretty much shows your bias right there... How about agree to disagree on this one?

It's as accurate as he being replaced by Kaepernick, who they added in more than 70 plays just in one game for him to run. Also, Smith's confidence was questioned after 2 consecutive games where the offense sputtered big time againt NYG and SEA respectively early last season.

I am not going to agree to disagree on your bias. I can pretty much tell you don't know anything about Smith and 49er football.

Well, that makes two of us then...

 

[drummer]

Matt Cassel - 58.9 completion %, 13,495 yards, 82 TD, 57 INT, 24 Fumbles, 80.4 Passer Rating

Alex Smith - 59.3 completion %, 14,280 yards, 81 TD, 63 INT, 36 Fumbles, 79.1 Passer Rating

The Chachinator finds this greatly misleading.

Particularly when you look at the trends over the last four years. One is trending up and one is trending down. And one just got the best QB improving HC in the league while another is being scouted by the Cardinals.This post is going to be so bumpable later on. I envision something like the Cheifs having as many or more wins in their first four games than they did all of last year and the haters will say, "But Alex Smith's numbers aren't that great. He's only averaging 220 yards passing 2 TD's and .6 picks a game," while those that know anything about football (real football, not this silly #### we do here) will point to the W's.

You're one of those guys. PRobably called for Smith to be benched the second they lost the NFCC in 2011. In the right system, the guy can win. He didn't lose the NFCC game and was a biscuit of getting you guys to the SB two years ago. Just because you're a homer doesn't mean you know football.

You know they only completed one 3rd down that whole game don't you? He was in the right system. He got replaced because in his second year within that system, he wasn't improving within it. That's why he is no longer the starter in SF.

To say he wasn't improving in the system is not at all accurate. But hey, keep stomping on the guy even after he got you guys the 34th pick. Pretty much shows your bias right there... How about agree to disagree on this one?

It's as accurate as he being replaced by Kaepernick, who they added in more than 70 plays just in one game for him to run. Also, Smith's confidence was questioned after 2 consecutive games where the offense sputtered big time againt NYG and SEA respectively early last season.

I am not going to agree to disagree on your bias. I can pretty much tell you don't know anything about Smith and 49er football.

Well, that makes two of us then...

Yeah, you and the imanginary brain of yours.

 

[TheFanatic]

I am not going to agree to disagree on your bias. I can pretty much tell you don't know anything about Smith and 49er football.

Well, that makes two of us then...

Yeah, you and the imanginary brain of yours.

I'll simply quote someone from above who uses statistics to back up his point (and mine).

Alex Smith DVOA:

2009: -19.5%

2010: -12.2%

2011: 3.1%

2012: 11.5%

Pretty clear trends here.

Alex Smith is essentially what they thought they'd be getting with Cassel. An efficient game manager who's been improving year by year.

I'll wait while you google DVOA.

 

[drummer]

I am not going to agree to disagree on your bias. I can pretty much tell you don't know anything about Smith and 49er football.

Well, that makes two of us then...

Yeah, you and the imanginary brain of yours.

I'll simply quote someone from above who uses statistics to back up his point (and mine).

Alex Smith DVOA:

2009: -19.5%

2010: -12.2%

2011: 3.1%

2012: 11.5%

Pretty clear trends here.

Alex Smith is essentially what they thought they'd be getting with Cassel. An efficient game manager who's been improving year by year.

I'll wait while you google DVOA.

You do realize "the system" isn't setup to have the QB take 44 sacks in a season, don't you? Add in 26 more the next regular season. Case in point: under Martz's system in SF: JTO and Shaun Hill took 55 sacks.

Does DVOA show the sack rate?

ETA: is DVOA counting how many games in a regular season? Or are you just cherry picking stats?

 

[TheFanatic]

I am not going to agree to disagree on your bias. I can pretty much tell you don't know anything about Smith and 49er football.

Well, that makes two of us then...

Yeah, you and the imanginary brain of yours.

I'll simply quote someone from above who uses statistics to back up his point (and mine).

Alex Smith DVOA:

2009: -19.5%

2010: -12.2%

2011: 3.1%

2012: 11.5%

Pretty clear trends here.

Alex Smith is essentially what they thought they'd be getting with Cassel. An efficient game manager who's been improving year by year.

I'll wait while you google DVOA.

You do realize "the system" isn't setup to have the QB take 44 sacks in a season, don't you? Add in 26 more the next regular season. Case in point: under Martz's system in SF: JTO and Shaun Hill took 55 sacks.

Does DVOA show the sack rate?

ETA: is DVOA counting how many games in a regular season? Or are you just cherry picking stats?

DVOA counts every single play. They don't cherry pick anything. Thanks for playing and thanks for proving my point. BTW, you said I was biased. The only player I own in this mess is Cassel who is about to be an ex chief. I have no dog in this fight whatsoever. Don't project your biases on me.

Good luck this year. I hope you do well....

 

[drummer]

I am not going to agree to disagree on your bias. I can pretty much tell you don't know anything about Smith and 49er football.

Well, that makes two of us then...

Yeah, you and the imanginary brain of yours.

I'll simply quote someone from above who uses statistics to back up his point (and mine).

Alex Smith DVOA:

2009: -19.5%

2010: -12.2%

2011: 3.1%

2012: 11.5%

Pretty clear trends here.

Alex Smith is essentially what they thought they'd be getting with Cassel. An efficient game manager who's been improving year by year.

I'll wait while you google DVOA.

You do realize "the system" isn't setup to have the QB take 44 sacks in a season, don't you? Add in 26 more the next regular season. Case in point: under Martz's system in SF: JTO and Shaun Hill took 55 sacks.

Does DVOA show the sack rate?

ETA: is DVOA counting how many games in a regular season? Or are you just cherry picking stats?

DVOA counts every single play. They don't cherry pick anything. Thanks for playing and thanks for proving my point. BTW, you said I was biased. The only player I own in this mess is Cassel who is about to be an ex chief. I have no dog in this fight whatsoever. Don't project your biases on me.

Good luck this year. I hope you do well....

Look, using DVOA isn't even close to explaining Smith or the 49ers of the past two seasons. Even Bill Barnwell has posted how the 49ers offense would improve if they had a 'real QB' instead of Smith on Grantland. My post comparing both Smith and Kaep this past season looks at each game in basic stats, and the basic stats show how many poor passing games Smith had this past season. Last season Smith had a pedestrian one in the fact that he had taken 44 sacks while throwing for around 3000 yards, 17-5 TD to INT, with a TO Ratio the best in the League and an All-Pro season from David Akers, who was their leading scorer. Smith's 2011 season are pure game manager numbers, with the offense watered down and not Harbaugh/Roman's full system in place. Kapernick already added a whole 'nother half of the playbook, and was even more efficient and explosive with the new pages added. If you want a true barometer, just look a Crabtree's spike in his numbers between both QB's. Does those DVOA numbers show any of that?

No. Because those numbers don't show the poor passing games from Smith against MIN, NYJ, NYG, and SEA in 2012.

 

[TheFanatic]

I am not going to agree to disagree on your bias. I can pretty much tell you don't know anything about Smith and 49er football.

Well, that makes two of us then...

Yeah, you and the imanginary brain of yours.

I'll simply quote someone from above who uses statistics to back up his point (and mine).

Alex Smith DVOA:

2009: -19.5%

2010: -12.2%

2011: 3.1%

2012: 11.5%

Pretty clear trends here.

Alex Smith is essentially what they thought they'd be getting with Cassel. An efficient game manager who's been improving year by year.

I'll wait while you google DVOA.

You do realize "the system" isn't setup to have the QB take 44 sacks in a season, don't you? Add in 26 more the next regular season. Case in point: under Martz's system in SF: JTO and Shaun Hill took 55 sacks.

Does DVOA show the sack rate?

ETA: is DVOA counting how many games in a regular season? Or are you just cherry picking stats?

DVOA counts every single play. They don't cherry pick anything. Thanks for playing and thanks for proving my point. BTW, you said I was biased. The only player I own in this mess is Cassel who is about to be an ex chief. I have no dog in this fight whatsoever. Don't project your biases on me.

Good luck this year. I hope you do well....

Look, using DVOA isn't even close to explaining Smith or the 49ers of the past two seasons. Even Bill Barnwell has posted how the 49ers offense would improve if they had a 'real QB' instead of Smith on Grantland. My post comparing both Smith and Kaep this past season looks at each game in basic stats, and the basic stats show how many poor passing games Smith had this past season. Last season Smith had a pedestrian one in the fact that he had taken 44 sacks while throwing for around 3000 yards, 17-5 TD to INT, with a TO Ratio the best in the League and an All-Pro season from David Akers, who was their leading scorer. Smith's 2011 season are pure game manager numbers, with the offense watered down and not Harbaugh/Roman's full system in place. Kapernick already added a whole 'nother half of the playbook, and was even more efficient and explosive with the new pages added. If you want a true barometer, just look a Crabtree's spike in his numbers between both QB's. Does those DVOA numbers show any of that?

No. Because those numbers don't show the poor passing games from Smith against MIN, NYJ, NYG, and SEA in 2012.

That's a pretty good stat. Crabtree took off under Kaep. He was awesome in the second half. But then Vernon Davis tanked so that stat is pretty useless. Oh, and you keep touting that Kaep got more plays than Smith. He's a running QB. Smith isnt. The answer to that is Duh, not something to hang your argument on.

And DVOA for the season takes in every single play against every team including Seattle, NYJ, Minn, and the Giants. Are you seriously arguing a stat you haven't even looked up? Google is your friend. Maybe you should look into it before you look any more foolish.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

If their LT can move to RT and they draft Joekel, then they have a strong O line, particularly for passing.

They just signed Winston at RT last year to a contract of 4 years/22 million.

Scratch that...Eric Winston was just released. Haha

 

[Norcalhoya]

@IanKenyonNFL: Alex Smith is 3-16 as a starter when asked to throw 35+ times. Andy Reid's Eagles threw the ball 35.7 times per game over the past 4 years.

Any chance Smith was asked to throw more when the team was in catch-up mode? Think there might be some reverse causation here?I don't have a dog in the Alex Smith fight, but this kind of statistic annoys me. (Not a dig on you for re-posting it; people who get paid to come up with this nonsense are the ones who annoy me.)

Exactly. Correlation does not mean causation. I'm sure most qbs have a lower win % when they throw a ton.

 

[Norcalhoya]

I am not going to agree to disagree on your bias. I can pretty much tell you don't know anything about Smith and 49er football.

Well, that makes two of us then...

Yeah, you and the imanginary brain of yours.

I'll simply quote someone from above who uses statistics to back up his point (and mine).

Alex Smith DVOA:

2009: -19.5%

2010: -12.2%

2011: 3.1%

2012: 11.5%

Pretty clear trends here.

Alex Smith is essentially what they thought they'd be getting with Cassel. An efficient game manager who's been improving year by year.

I'll wait while you google DVOA.

You do realize "the system" isn't setup to have the QB take 44 sacks in a season, don't you? Add in 26 more the next regular season. Case in point: under Martz's system in SF: JTO and Shaun Hill took 55 sacks.

Does DVOA show the sack rate?

ETA: is DVOA counting how many games in a regular season? Or are you just cherry picking stats?

DVOA counts every single play. They don't cherry pick anything. Thanks for playing and thanks for proving my point. BTW, you said I was biased. The only player I own in this mess is Cassel who is about to be an ex chief. I have no dog in this fight whatsoever. Don't project your biases on me.

Good luck this year. I hope you do well....

Look, using DVOA isn't even close to explaining Smith or the 49ers of the past two seasons. Even Bill Barnwell has posted how the 49ers offense would improve if they had a 'real QB' instead of Smith on Grantland. My post comparing both Smith and Kaep this past season looks at each game in basic stats, and the basic stats show how many poor passing games Smith had this past season. Last season Smith had a pedestrian one in the fact that he had taken 44 sacks while throwing for around 3000 yards, 17-5 TD to INT, with a TO Ratio the best in the League and an All-Pro season from David Akers, who was their leading scorer. Smith's 2011 season are pure game manager numbers, with the offense watered down and not Harbaugh/Roman's full system in place. Kapernick already added a whole 'nother half of the playbook, and was even more efficient and explosive with the new pages added. If you want a true barometer, just look a Crabtree's spike in his numbers between both QB's. Does those DVOA numbers show any of that?

No. Because those numbers don't show the poor passing games from Smith against MIN, NYJ, NYG, and SEA in 2012.

How were VD's numbers with Kaep?

 

[drummer]

I am not going to agree to disagree on your bias. I can pretty much tell you don't know anything about Smith and 49er football.

Well, that makes two of us then...

Yeah, you and the imanginary brain of yours.

I'll simply quote someone from above who uses statistics to back up his point (and mine).

Alex Smith DVOA:

2009: -19.5%

2010: -12.2%

2011: 3.1%

2012: 11.5%

Pretty clear trends here.

Alex Smith is essentially what they thought they'd be getting with Cassel. An efficient game manager who's been improving year by year.

I'll wait while you google DVOA.

You do realize "the system" isn't setup to have the QB take 44 sacks in a season, don't you? Add in 26 more the next regular season. Case in point: under Martz's system in SF: JTO and Shaun Hill took 55 sacks.

Does DVOA show the sack rate?

ETA: is DVOA counting how many games in a regular season? Or are you just cherry picking stats?

DVOA counts every single play. They don't cherry pick anything. Thanks for playing and thanks for proving my point. BTW, you said I was biased. The only player I own in this mess is Cassel who is about to be an ex chief. I have no dog in this fight whatsoever. Don't project your biases on me.

Good luck this year. I hope you do well....

Look, using DVOA isn't even close to explaining Smith or the 49ers of the past two seasons. Even Bill Barnwell has posted how the 49ers offense would improve if they had a 'real QB' instead of Smith on Grantland. My post comparing both Smith and Kaep this past season looks at each game in basic stats, and the basic stats show how many poor passing games Smith had this past season. Last season Smith had a pedestrian one in the fact that he had taken 44 sacks while throwing for around 3000 yards, 17-5 TD to INT, with a TO Ratio the best in the League and an All-Pro season from David Akers, who was their leading scorer. Smith's 2011 season are pure game manager numbers, with the offense watered down and not Harbaugh/Roman's full system in place. Kapernick already added a whole 'nother half of the playbook, and was even more efficient and explosive with the new pages added. If you want a true barometer, just look a Crabtree's spike in his numbers between both QB's. Does those DVOA numbers show any of that?

No. Because those numbers don't show the poor passing games from Smith against MIN, NYJ, NYG, and SEA in 2012.

How were VD's numbers with Kaep?

VD's numbers dropped of considerably as far as scoring after the MIN game. The only spike in catches was against CHI, with Kaep in his first start, where VD grabbed his regualr season TD. Before that, again, donut holes in the TD dept post MIN.Post season he posted 12 catches for 254 yards and a TD.

So it's safe to assume that with either QB, and the adjustment of Roman and Harbuagh with the offense, that VD within the game plan had him block more than be a target.

Anything else?

 

[drummer]

I am not going to agree to disagree on your bias. I can pretty much tell you don't know anything about Smith and 49er football.

Well, that makes two of us then...

Yeah, you and the imanginary brain of yours.

I'll simply quote someone from above who uses statistics to back up his point (and mine).

Alex Smith DVOA:

2009: -19.5%

2010: -12.2%

2011: 3.1%

2012: 11.5%

Pretty clear trends here.

Alex Smith is essentially what they thought they'd be getting with Cassel. An efficient game manager who's been improving year by year.

I'll wait while you google DVOA.

You do realize "the system" isn't setup to have the QB take 44 sacks in a season, don't you? Add in 26 more the next regular season. Case in point: under Martz's system in SF: JTO and Shaun Hill took 55 sacks.

Does DVOA show the sack rate?

ETA: is DVOA counting how many games in a regular season? Or are you just cherry picking stats?

DVOA counts every single play. They don't cherry pick anything. Thanks for playing and thanks for proving my point. BTW, you said I was biased. The only player I own in this mess is Cassel who is about to be an ex chief. I have no dog in this fight whatsoever. Don't project your biases on me.

Good luck this year. I hope you do well....

Look, using DVOA isn't even close to explaining Smith or the 49ers of the past two seasons. Even Bill Barnwell has posted how the 49ers offense would improve if they had a 'real QB' instead of Smith on Grantland. My post comparing both Smith and Kaep this past season looks at each game in basic stats, and the basic stats show how many poor passing games Smith had this past season. Last season Smith had a pedestrian one in the fact that he had taken 44 sacks while throwing for around 3000 yards, 17-5 TD to INT, with a TO Ratio the best in the League and an All-Pro season from David Akers, who was their leading scorer. Smith's 2011 season are pure game manager numbers, with the offense watered down and not Harbaugh/Roman's full system in place. Kapernick already added a whole 'nother half of the playbook, and was even more efficient and explosive with the new pages added. If you want a true barometer, just look a Crabtree's spike in his numbers between both QB's. Does those DVOA numbers show any of that?

No. Because those numbers don't show the poor passing games from Smith against MIN, NYJ, NYG, and SEA in 2012.

That's a pretty good stat. Crabtree took off under Kaep. He was awesome in the second half. But then Vernon Davis tanked so that stat is pretty useless. Oh, and you keep touting that Kaep got more plays than Smith. He's a running QB. Smith isnt. The answer to that is Duh, not something to hang your argument on.

And DVOA for the season takes in every single play against every team including Seattle, NYJ, Minn, and the Giants. Are you seriously arguing a stat you haven't even looked up? Google is your friend. Maybe you should look into it before you look any more foolish.

No no no, you don't get it. The plays Kaep get's more is due to he being a running threat, but he actually threw more than ran because the plays called use all kinds of different formations to switch at the line. Kaep checks the offense more at the line than Smith had. Kaep was actually starting the run the offense in the same way Luck did at Stanford. Going forward, you'll probably see Kaep run and check the offense from the line more than get the play from the sideline. Kape runs Harbaugh's offense more truly than Smith ever had. As far as the DVOA stuff: if you really have to use that when you look at his basic stat line against NYJ, then you need to take a bong hit and grab some milk and cookies. Also look at his stats against NYG, and SEA. I don't think Harbaugh looked at DVOA and said "Ya know, the offense via DVOA may keep me from starting Kaep". It doesn't work that way in the NFL.

Seriously, you're reaching so hard that you are pulling your arm out of your socket.

ETA: Smith has only threw for around 1700 yards, so using DVOA in a truncated season (where Smith was benched) is cherry picking stats.

 

[drummer]

@IanKenyonNFL: Alex Smith is 3-16 as a starter when asked to throw 35+ times. Andy Reid's Eagles threw the ball 35.7 times per game over the past 4 years.

Any chance Smith was asked to throw more when the team was in catch-up mode? Think there might be some reverse causation here?I don't have a dog in the Alex Smith fight, but this kind of statistic annoys me. (Not a dig on you for re-posting it; people who get paid to come up with this nonsense are the ones who annoy me.)

Exactly. Correlation does not mean causation. I'm sure most qbs have a lower win % when they throw a ton.

Well, there is that whole "Jimmy Raye" thing there too.

 

[drummer]

BTW, just looking at the DVOA numbers:

Alex Smith: 14.9%. VOA: 11.5%

Joe Flacco: -1.4%. VOA: -0.1%

Yeah.

Colin Kaepernick (just for kicks): 25.7% VOA: 19.6%

 

[drummer]

BTW, that Barnwell piece I mentioned, with a specific quote

1. Colin Kaepernick became the starting quarterback. Obviously, the midseason shift to Kaepernick has become the defining moment of San Francisco's campaign, and even the biggest 49ers fan couldn't have predicted that Kaepernick would be this good this soon. His ability to lead quick drives downfield has been a weapon the 49ers simply didn't have last year. Does Alex Smith beat the Saints in a shootout in New Orleans? Or the Patriots in a game where Justin Smith gets hurt and the defense collapses in the second half in Foxborough? Would he have been able to lead a comeback from down 17-0 against the Falcons in Atlanta? It's hard to say. The 49ers were 6-2 with Smith as the starter and 5-2 with Kaepernick as the starter (with a 16th game being the Rams contest in which Kaepernick came in for an injured Smith), but Kaepernick played a tougher schedule. The offense had also begun to sputter with Smith at the helm, as the 49ers had scored just 40 points in Smith's three final games before the Rams start that saw him get that infamous concussion. I wrote at the end of my piece before the season that "49ers fans dreaming of a Super Bowl run might want to dream about life with a real quarterback instead." As it turns out, they'll get to dream — and see — both.

 

[TheFanatic]

Seriously, you're reaching so hard that you are pulling your arm out of your socket.ETA: Smith has only threw for around 1700 yards, so using DVOA in a truncated season (where Smith was benched) is cherry picking stats.

These two statements are downright comical together. So basically, DVOA, which analyzes every play a player is involved in, should factor in the games in which Smith didn't play? It doesn't cherry pick stats. It takes every play a player is involved in to see how effective he was.Glad to see you finally googled DVOA, sorry to see you have a real problem with reading comprehension.BTW, keep trying hard to pat yourself on the back thinking you are winning this argument. You're not even close and have shown me that nothing more can be accomplished here. You don't have the decency to agree to disagree and see where the chips fall in a few months. Like I said, good luck...

 

[drummer]

Seriously, you're reaching so hard that you are pulling your arm out of your socket.ETA: Smith has only threw for around 1700 yards, so using DVOA in a truncated season (where Smith was benched) is cherry picking stats.

These two statements are downright comical together. So basically, DVOA, which analyzes every play a player is involved in, should factor in the games in which Smith didn't play? It doesn't cherry pick stats. It takes every play a player is involved in to see how effective he was.Glad to see you finally googled DVOA, sorry to see you have a real problem with reading comprehension.BTW, keep trying hard to pat yourself on the back thinking you are winning this argument. You're not even close and have shown me that nothing more can be accomplished here. You don't have the decency to agree to disagree and see where the chips fall in a few months. Like I said, good luck...

I've known about Football Outsiders since 2005. One guy I know is an assitant editor there. You're really using their stats poorly, like you don't even understand them. You keep saying you don't have a dog in this fight, but you are nipping at the ankles like a frustrated chihuahua.