All Overrated Team 2010 (1 Viewer)

[Joe T]

I know it is still late July, but some players are being taken way too early in drafts. This list is subject to change as these guys will probably move up and down throughout the preseason, but as of July 27th here is my All-Overrated Team of 2010.

QB - Kevin Kolb

QB is actually the hardest position to find an overrated player. Most QB's are fairly valued, but Kolb stands out as the current best option here. In the FBG PPR staff draft Kolb went at 7.06. In the mid-July top 300 PPR list, FBG has Kolb at QB9. Some things to keep in mind is that he is filling in for McNabb who never threw for 4,000 yards in his career as an Eagle and often finished in the low 20's in TD's. Is Kolb going to do marginally better than McNabb? It is possible, but the Eagles have a declining offensive line and a limited running game. Given that Kolb is also entering his first year as a starter, why would he be drafted or ranked ahead of Eli Manning who through for over 4,000 yards last year and 27 TD's. E. Manning is entering the prime of his career, but is ranked lower than Kolb. It doesn't make a lot of sense. I like Kolb and think he will be good, just odds are he won't live up to his current ranking of QB 9. Even if you do not want to draft E. Manning, you could wait and still get guys like Favre, Flacco, or Ryan in the 9th round who will likely have similar or better numbers than Kolb.

RB - Knowshon Moreno

Moreno was drafted at 3.11 in the FBG PPR Staff draft earlier this month and is ranked at RB11 in the FBG PPR top 300. Moreno finished with roughly 950 rushing yards and 250 receiving yards and 9 TD's in his rookie year. Those numbers are not terrible, but why would he move up from around RB20 where he finished last year all the way to number 11? He had zero games with 100 yards rushing last year which is pretty hard to do. He also averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. At RB11, he seems too high. There is much better value to be had later.

RB - Marion Barber

Barber is now the Cowboys number 2 option at RB. He is currently ranked as the #41 RB in the top 300 and went at 7.06 in the FBG PPR Staff draft. That seems way too high for a guy with so little upside. Even if something happens to F. Jones this year, Barber still has Tashard Choice to deal with. Barber seemed to lose a step last year and was already lacking in speed. He's a guy I would pass on if drafted anywhere in the top 10 rounds. He's the kind of guy who is on his way down in his career and is the kind of guy that will add nothing to your lineup.

WR - Michael Crabtree

Crabtree is the #1 Overrated player so far this preseason. He finished 2009 averaging just 9.8 PPG in PPR leagues. Is the fact that he is making his first full training camp vaulting him up the rankings? He was drafted 3.06 in the FBG Staff PPR league and is ranked as WR22 in the top 300. He is a decent talent on a team that can't throw the ball very well. If you are taking him in the 3rd round of a draft you need WR1 like production out of a guy that likely will end up being a mediocre #2 WR on most fantasy teams. There are so many better guys you can get in the 5th and 6th rounds that make taking Crabtree in the 3rd a waste.

WR - Percy Harvin

Harvin had a great rookie season. He went 4.04 in the FBG Staff PPR draft and is ranked as the #17 ranked WR in the top 300. He is not a terrible stretch here, but with so many other options on the Vikings his upside is limited. He finished at about WR 25 last year in PPR leagues. Given that he had a great rookie season and still finished around the #25 WR, how much higher than that can he go? Not much without changes in the Vikings pecking order. Taking him in the fourth round is too high.

WR - Dez Bryant

Drafted at 5.02 in the FBG PPR Staff league and is ranked as WR 36 in the FBG top 300. He is a rookie on a team loaded with offensive weapons. No doubt that he is a massive talent and getting into training camp early will help him. But rookie WR's tend to struggle AND there just aren't enough footballs to go around in Dallas to give Bryant a chance to perform that highly. In the fifth round, there are way too many solid guys out there to go after an unproven rookie WR.

 

[purestrength]

WR - Dez Bryant

Drafted at 5.02 in the FBG PPR Staff league and is ranked as WR 36 in the FBG top 300. He is a rookie on a team loaded with offensive weapons. No doubt that he is a massive talent and getting into training camp early will help him. But rookie WR's tend to struggle AND there just aren't enough footballs to go around in Dallas to give Bryant a chance to perform that highly. In the fifth round, there are way too many solid guys out there to go after an unproven rookie WR.

I almost took Dez in the middle of the sixth round of a WCOFF slow draft going on now, but I chose Meachem instead. Then the guy right after me took Dez.

I hope I don't end up regretting that decision because I think Dez may have that rare special talent to succeed even as a rookie WR.

 

[Nero]

Tom Brady

Mendenhall

Spiller

D. Jackson

Calvin Johnson

Wayne

Finley

 

[Joe T]

Tom Brady

Mendenhall

Spiller

D. Jackson

Calvin Johnson

Wayne

Finley

I had the two bolded guys above on the list early on. They are definitely on my second team of All Overrated players.

 

[DawnBTVS]

I can see the hype on Moreno/Crabtree, two rookies (emphasis there) that still produced despite very limited time as starters during the season.

QB: Jason Campbell This is a guy who has never been asked to throw more than 510 pass attempts, landing in a situation that has been murky for the last decade FF wise. It's even turned guys like Randy Moss into underachievers. Campbell went off for 3,600+ and 20 TD but the talent at his disposal in Oakland is far less. Oakland QBs last season combined for just 10 TD passes. I don't see Campbell throwing for more than 15 TD tops.

RB: Matt Forte Last 2 years he's had YPC of 3.9 and 3.6. The Bears haven't had a consistent offensive line and now have Mike Martz coming in at offensive coordinator. They can talk about the run game but Martz doesn't allow the main guys to run the ball very much (See Frank Gore) and I don't think the offensive line has improved very much for Forte to make an impact on the ground if he can't run for at least a 4.1 YPC. He could be a decent RB2 option in a PPR league but think he'll be overrated this season.

WR: Larry Fitzgerald I think he'll produce but not at the levels of past seasons. He's now lost Anquan Boldin alongside him and Kurt Warner at QB. He saw his YPR drop down to just 11.3 last season and Matt Leinart is coming in with relatively little starting experience. Fitzgerald should see more double teams and I'd be surprised if he even approaches 9 TD catches.

TE: Dallas Clark Had a career year last year. This season, the Colts have found themselves 3 very good receivers (Wayne, Pierre Garcon, and Austin Collie) and Anthony Gonzalez is coming back healthy. Joseph Addai is there at RB and Donald Brown also has another year under his belt. Like Fitzgerald, I think Clark will be solid but anybody expecting similar numbers to last season will be greatly disappointed. I see his numbers being more in between what he produced in 2007 and 2008.

TE: Visanthe Shiancoe Exploded for 11 TD but only started 13 games last year and his receiving yards were almost the same as in 2008. Even with Brett Favre's likely return, I think people just looking at his FP or TE Ranking will be fooled if they expect similar numbers. His touchdowns should drop down to 5 or 6 and I don't see the catches or yards going up.

 

[GloryDaze]

Got a link to that draft you're referencing?

 

[purestrength]

In light of the Cincinnati Bengals' signing today, allow me to nominate: Terrell Owens.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I know it is still late July, but some players are being taken way too early in drafts. This list is subject to change as these guys will probably move up and down throughout the preseason, but as of July 27th here is my All-Overrated Team of 2010.

QB - Kevin Kolb

QB is actually the hardest position to find an overrated player. Most QB's are fairly valued, but Kolb stands out as the current best option here. In the FBG PPR staff draft Kolb went at 7.06. In the mid-July top 300 PPR list, FBG has Kolb at QB9. Some things to keep in mind is that he is filling in for McNabb who never threw for 4,000 yards in his career as an Eagle and often finished in the low 20's in TD's. Is Kolb going to do marginally better than McNabb? It is possible, but the Eagles have a declining offensive line and a limited running game. Given that Kolb is also entering his first year as a starter, why would he be drafted or ranked ahead of Eli Manning who through for over 4,000 yards last year and 27 TD's. E. Manning is entering the prime of his career, but is ranked lower than Kolb. It doesn't make a lot of sense. I like Kolb and think he will be good, just odds are he won't live up to his current ranking of QB 9. Even if you do not want to draft E. Manning, you could wait and still get guys like Favre, Flacco, or Ryan in the 9th round who will likely have similar or better numbers than Kolb.

RB - Knowshon Moreno

Moreno was drafted at 3.11 in the FBG PPR Staff draft earlier this month and is ranked at RB11 in the FBG PPR top 300. Moreno finished with roughly 950 rushing yards and 250 receiving yards and 9 TD's in his rookie year. Those numbers are not terrible, but why would he move up from around RB20 where he finished last year all the way to number 11? He had zero games with 100 yards rushing last year which is pretty hard to do. He also averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. At RB11, he seems too high. There is much better value to be had later.

RB - Marion Barber

Barber is now the Cowboys number 2 option at RB. He is currently ranked as the #41 RB in the top 300 and went at 7.06 in the FBG PPR Staff draft. That seems way too high for a guy with so little upside. Even if something happens to F. Jones this year, Barber still has Tashard Choice to deal with. Barber seemed to lose a step last year and was already lacking in speed. He's a guy I would pass on if drafted anywhere in the top 10 rounds. He's the kind of guy who is on his way down in his career and is the kind of guy that will add nothing to your lineup.

WR - Michael Crabtree

Crabtree is the #1 Overrated player so far this preseason. He finished 2009 averaging just 9.8 PPG in PPR leagues. Is the fact that he is making his first full training camp vaulting him up the rankings? He was drafted 3.06 in the FBG Staff PPR league and is ranked as WR22 in the top 300. He is a decent talent on a team that can't throw the ball very well. If you are taking him in the 3rd round of a draft you need WR1 like production out of a guy that likely will end up being a mediocre #2 WR on most fantasy teams. There are so many better guys you can get in the 5th and 6th rounds that make taking Crabtree in the 3rd a waste.

WR - Percy Harvin

Harvin had a great rookie season. He went 4.04 in the FBG Staff PPR draft and is ranked as the #17 ranked WR in the top 300. He is not a terrible stretch here, but with so many other options on the Vikings his upside is limited. He finished at about WR 25 last year in PPR leagues. Given that he had a great rookie season and still finished around the #25 WR, how much higher than that can he go? Not much without changes in the Vikings pecking order. Taking him in the fourth round is too high.

WR - Dez Bryant

Drafted at 5.02 in the FBG PPR Staff league and is ranked as WR 36 in the FBG top 300. He is a rookie on a team loaded with offensive weapons. No doubt that he is a massive talent and getting into training camp early will help him. But rookie WR's tend to struggle AND there just aren't enough footballs to go around in Dallas to give Bryant a chance to perform that highly. In the fifth round, there are way too many solid guys out there to go after an unproven rookie WR.

Kolb - How do you explain the two 300 yd games in first two career starts last year? Beginner's luck? Rodgers also looms here as reason to take Kolb as QB1 in QBBC.Moreno - Rice, Charles, and Mendenhall were totally unimpressive in their rookie seasons. By all accounts Moreno has been workin like a dog to improve on last year's issues.

MB3 - was playing most of year with a hole in his quad, by all accounts looks good again, if anything quicker than before. In same role with 06-07 Cowboys was a top 15 back

Crabtree - I don't totally buy in to it, but I can see the argument that if he was that good coming in cold, he'll be something else this year, even in a poor passing offense (which created the #1 fantasy TE last year)

Seems like you are putting a lot of stock in last year's numbers - i dont know if thats wise for rooks who can really transform in their first full offseason.

 

[moderated]

Kolb - How do you explain the two 300 yd games in first two career starts last year? Beginner's luck? Rodgers also looms here as reason to take Kolb as QB1 in QBBC.

throwing the ball 85 times in those games helps.if i was assured he would average 42.5 attempts a game i'd be more likely to buy the hype.

 

[Multiple Scores]

All Overrated -

Carson Palmer, his ADP is going to skyrocket with TO in town, Benson is the real beneficiary from better defensive fronts.

Jay Cutler, he's being called a great sleeper, I will wait until next year, last year was too horrible to waste a pick on a guess if the guy doesn't blow.

Raiders RBS, McFadden or Bush, no thanks.

LT, his legs are shot, he gets a better line this year but a year older those legs are, Shaun Alexander fell off the cliff and I don't see a LT rebound. I know his ADP isn't high but I predict 3 carries/per game after midseason and if McKnight is halfway descent then I could see zero carries and deactivation, possibly LT moping about it and retiring before the season is over.

Jonathan Stewart, he isn't overrated in the general community, this is an FBG special, he is overrated by FBG members, and he is very talented but is in a 50-50 split at best.

Mendenhall, nothing against him but his line is bad..... real bad.

Lee Evans, he'll be the sleeper dejour once again, he has never woke up, time to let the dream go.

Finley, another overrated guy by FBG, he should not be seen as the #1 TE in the entire league, when I hear top 5 I can see it but not #1.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Kolb - How do you explain the two 300 yd games in first two career starts last year? Beginner's luck? Rodgers also looms here as reason to take Kolb as QB1 in QBBC.

throwing the ball 85 times in those games helps.if i was assured he would average 42.5 attempts a game i'd be more likely to buy the hype.

obviously 670+ attempts is a stretch, but I dont think 600 is crazy. The theory here would be that like Rodgers, Kolb will actually run the offense truer to its design and utilize the weapons better than his freelancing predecessor. I dont know if it will come to fruition, but at the current ADP and with the chance to hedge him with an Eli or Ryan in the next round, its not a bad risk to take.

 

[Todem]

Shonne Greene- Soft, not very talented in comparison to other backs being taken around him at his ADP, puts the ball on the ground, can't catch a lick. A formula for underperformance in his first full season as a starter. The only thing he has going for him is playing behind that amazing line. He is my biggest bust pick based on ADP this year.

Percy Harvin - great talent. But not a fantasy stud nor even a WR2 in my book. Rice is king in Viking land and clearly the best WR on that team. Couple that with ADP and I don't see enough touches for Harvin to make a big difference on your team.

Rashard Mendenhall - He is just not that good. I watched him...and he never impressed me. And he plays behind a very suspect line.

Cedric Benson - Do it again Ced then I will believe. My money say's he cracks at some point. Not a believer. He did look dominate last season, but he is a guy to me who is soft above the neck.

I am sure I will think of some more.

 

[VaTerp]

RB - Marion Barber

Barber is now the Cowboys number 2 option at RB. He is currently ranked as the #41 RB in the top 300 and went at 7.06 in the FBG PPR Staff draft. That seems way too high for a guy with so little upside. Even if something happens to F. Jones this year, Barber still has Tashard Choice to deal with. Barber seemed to lose a step last year and was already lacking in speed. He's a guy I would pass on if drafted anywhere in the top 10 rounds. He's the kind of guy who is on his way down in his career and is the kind of guy that will add nothing to your lineup.

WR - Percy Harvin

Harvin had a great rookie season. He went 4.04 in the FBG Staff PPR draft and is ranked as the #17 ranked WR in the top 300. He is not a terrible stretch here, but with so many other options on the Vikings his upside is limited. He finished at about WR 25 last year in PPR leagues. Given that he had a great rookie season and still finished around the #25 WR, how much higher than that can he go? Not much without changes in the Vikings pecking order. Taking him in the fourth round is too high.

Good thread that should generate discussion.I couldnt disagree more about MBIII though. I think he is seriously Undervalued at RB41. Playing last year with a significant quad injury Barber still averaged a more than respectable 4.4 ypc. Early indications are that he looks lighter and quicker this year and, at 27, I think it's pre-mature to say he is on the downside of his career. This is a guy who has had 46 TDs the last 4 years, plays in an offense that will create plenty of scoring opportunities, and is still likely to be the best option at the GL. To say he has little upside and is the kind of guy that will add nothing to your lineup is ridiculous IMO.

As for Harvin, I do think WR17 is a little too high for him. But I strongly disagree with the part you bolded. History shows that WRs have their greatest improvement from year 1 to year 2, not the mythical 3rd year theory. The Vikings have plenty of weapons and one of the games best RBs but thats not necessarily a bad thing. In the passing game they have Sidney Rice, who has his first and only impact season last year and is already battling injuries this off season and Bernard Berrian who has proven to be nothing special, has chronic leg issues, and who Harvin outperformed last year. I could easily see Harvin leading the Vikings in receptions next year and think he has plenty of room for improvement.

 

[footballman_696969]

Shonn Greene

Jeremy Maclin

Pierre Garcon

Dez Bryant

Santonio Holmes

 

[B. Nugget]

Shonn GreeneJeremy MaclinPierre GarconDez BryantSantonio Holmes

How can you put Maclin on a list without including DJAX? DJAX is being touted as a top 10 dynasty WR because of inflated value of long TDs.If anything Maclin is being under-rated, I like him to put up similar or better stats at a much cheaper cost.

 

[footballman_696969]

Shonn GreeneJeremy MaclinPierre GarconDez BryantSantonio Holmes

How can you put Maclin on a list without including DJAX? DJAX is being touted as a top 10 dynasty WR because of inflated value of long TDs.If anything Maclin is being under-rated, I like him to put up similar or better stats at a much cheaper cost.

How do you see Maclin getting similar or better stats than DJAX? Desean is one of the most talented and dangerous WRs in the league. The Eagles would be crazy to not make sure he gets a ton of touches. The guy has the abillity to score from anywhere on the field. BTW my list was purely for redraft.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Shonn GreeneJeremy MaclinPierre GarconDez BryantSantonio Holmes

How can you put Maclin on a list without including DJAX? DJAX is being touted as a top 10 dynasty WR because of inflated value of long TDs.If anything Maclin is being under-rated, I like him to put up similar or better stats at a much cheaper cost.

Unless you think Kolb sucks having both wouldn't make any sense.I think both will be fine, just sayin ....

 

[FUBAR]

I couldnt disagree more about MBIII though. I think he is seriously Undervalued at RB41. Playing last year with a significant quad injury Barber still averaged a more than respectable 4.4 ypc. Early indications are that he looks lighter and quicker this year and, at 27, I think it's pre-mature to say he is on the downside of his career. This is a guy who has had 46 TDs the last 4 years, plays in an offense that will create plenty of scoring opportunities, and is still likely to be the best option at the GL. To say he has little upside and is the kind of guy that will add nothing to your lineup is ridiculous IMO.

I don't want MB3 in small leagues where 24 or less total RBs could possibly start, but IMO he's a good pickup in larger leagues and best ball. In best ball I could actually see taking all 3 Dallas RBs except that Felix is going too high to make that a viable plan.

 

[Joe T]

I know it is still late July, but some players are being taken way too early in drafts. This list is subject to change as these guys will probably move up and down throughout the preseason, but as of July 27th here is my All-Overrated Team of 2010.

QB - Kevin Kolb

QB is actually the hardest position to find an overrated player. Most QB's are fairly valued, but Kolb stands out as the current best option here. In the FBG PPR staff draft Kolb went at 7.06. In the mid-July top 300 PPR list, FBG has Kolb at QB9. Some things to keep in mind is that he is filling in for McNabb who never threw for 4,000 yards in his career as an Eagle and often finished in the low 20's in TD's. Is Kolb going to do marginally better than McNabb? It is possible, but the Eagles have a declining offensive line and a limited running game. Given that Kolb is also entering his first year as a starter, why would he be drafted or ranked ahead of Eli Manning who through for over 4,000 yards last year and 27 TD's. E. Manning is entering the prime of his career, but is ranked lower than Kolb. It doesn't make a lot of sense. I like Kolb and think he will be good, just odds are he won't live up to his current ranking of QB 9. Even if you do not want to draft E. Manning, you could wait and still get guys like Favre, Flacco, or Ryan in the 9th round who will likely have similar or better numbers than Kolb.

RB - Knowshon Moreno

Moreno was drafted at 3.11 in the FBG PPR Staff draft earlier this month and is ranked at RB11 in the FBG PPR top 300. Moreno finished with roughly 950 rushing yards and 250 receiving yards and 9 TD's in his rookie year. Those numbers are not terrible, but why would he move up from around RB20 where he finished last year all the way to number 11? He had zero games with 100 yards rushing last year which is pretty hard to do. He also averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. At RB11, he seems too high. There is much better value to be had later.

RB - Marion Barber

Barber is now the Cowboys number 2 option at RB. He is currently ranked as the #41 RB in the top 300 and went at 7.06 in the FBG PPR Staff draft. That seems way too high for a guy with so little upside. Even if something happens to F. Jones this year, Barber still has Tashard Choice to deal with. Barber seemed to lose a step last year and was already lacking in speed. He's a guy I would pass on if drafted anywhere in the top 10 rounds. He's the kind of guy who is on his way down in his career and is the kind of guy that will add nothing to your lineup.

WR - Michael Crabtree

Crabtree is the #1 Overrated player so far this preseason. He finished 2009 averaging just 9.8 PPG in PPR leagues. Is the fact that he is making his first full training camp vaulting him up the rankings? He was drafted 3.06 in the FBG Staff PPR league and is ranked as WR22 in the top 300. He is a decent talent on a team that can't throw the ball very well. If you are taking him in the 3rd round of a draft you need WR1 like production out of a guy that likely will end up being a mediocre #2 WR on most fantasy teams. There are so many better guys you can get in the 5th and 6th rounds that make taking Crabtree in the 3rd a waste.

WR - Percy Harvin

Harvin had a great rookie season. He went 4.04 in the FBG Staff PPR draft and is ranked as the #17 ranked WR in the top 300. He is not a terrible stretch here, but with so many other options on the Vikings his upside is limited. He finished at about WR 25 last year in PPR leagues. Given that he had a great rookie season and still finished around the #25 WR, how much higher than that can he go? Not much without changes in the Vikings pecking order. Taking him in the fourth round is too high.

WR - Dez Bryant

Drafted at 5.02 in the FBG PPR Staff league and is ranked as WR 36 in the FBG top 300. He is a rookie on a team loaded with offensive weapons. No doubt that he is a massive talent and getting into training camp early will help him. But rookie WR's tend to struggle AND there just aren't enough footballs to go around in Dallas to give Bryant a chance to perform that highly. In the fifth round, there are way too many solid guys out there to go after an unproven rookie WR.

Kolb - How do you explain the two 300 yd games in first two career starts last year? Beginner's luck? Rodgers also looms here as reason to take Kolb as QB1 in QBBC.Moreno - Rice, Charles, and Mendenhall were totally unimpressive in their rookie seasons. By all accounts Moreno has been workin like a dog to improve on last year's issues.

MB3 - was playing most of year with a hole in his quad, by all accounts looks good again, if anything quicker than before. In same role with 06-07 Cowboys was a top 15 back

Crabtree - I don't totally buy in to it, but I can see the argument that if he was that good coming in cold, he'll be something else this year, even in a poor passing offense (which created the #1 fantasy TE last year)

Seems like you are putting a lot of stock in last year's numbers - i dont know if thats wise for rooks who can really transform in their first full offseason.

Kolb - his two 300 yard games were versus the Saints and Chiefs. They were way behind versus the Saints and throwing everywhere. Neither are defensive powers. And like I said, his line is terrible. He is being overrated if going in the 7th round.

Moreno - did nothing worthy his rookie year to warrant the #11 RB spot this year. The three guys you mention were all backups their rookie seasons.

MB3 - by all accounts was never quick. Once he got his contract he stopped running like Marion Barber. Last season he was caught from behind by defensive linemen.

Crabtree - way too much of a risk to be worth a 3rd rounder. He could get there, but that is his high end. Why would you buy a player at his high point?

(Harvin, Dez Bryant not mentioned)

I'm putting a lot of stock in this year's projected numbers. I think for all of these guys they have only downside from where they are being picked. The idea of winning drafts is to get value in each pick. That just isn't the case with any of these guys.

 

[Joe T]

Got a link to that draft you're referencing?

PPR Mock Staff Draft with commentary

 

[Go deep]

QB - Kevin Kolb

RB - Rashard Mendenhall

RB - Marion Barber

WR - Jeremy Maclin

WR - Larry Fitzgerald

WR - Pierre Garcon

TE - Dallas Clark

 

[purestrength]

WR - Pierre GarconTE - Dallas Clark

Not one member of the Colts' high-powered offense, but two.Let me guess, "too many mouths to feed"?

 

[BigJim®]

MB3 - by all accounts was never quick. Once he got his contract he stopped running like Marion Barber.

Apparently he was quick enough. What exactly are you saying about the contract?

 

[timschochet]

Very nice analysis, Joe T. You make a good point about Crabtree being on a team that doesn't throw well. I found that unless you're dealing with an absolute stud (Andre Johnson for example) it is better to have an OK WR on a team that throws well rather than a very good WR on a team that doesn't.

 

[Go deep]

WR - Pierre GarconTE - Dallas Clark

Not one member of the Colts' high-powered offense, but two.Let me guess, "too many mouths to feed"?

I still think Clark will put up good numbers, but he is being drafted too high after a career year. He bested his career high in receptions by 23 last year, i dont think he will do it again, but is being drafted like he will.As far as Garcon, yes, too many mouths to feed, and not enough talent. I think Gonzalez is the better player, although none of the Colts "other" WR's will be very productive in 2010.(from a FF standpoint)

 

[Go deep]

MB3 - by all accounts was never quick. Once he got his contract he stopped running like Marion Barber.

Apparently he was quick enough. What exactly are you saying about the contract?

He was quick enough....to beat out Julius Jones.I think he is saying that now he has received a big contract, he lost some of the motivation that made him a top 10 dynasty backa few years ago.

 

[lazyike]

WR-Randy Moss. Just don't like the effort he exhibits and he's starting to reach that age where many WRs start to slide. Just don't think he deserves to be the second WR drafted in redrafts.

RB-Steven Jackson-he's a beast but taken a beating on a team that is going to continue to struggle. He's likely going to be available when I pick 12th in my redraft and I'm going to pass.

 

[B. Nugget]

Shonn GreeneJeremy MaclinPierre GarconDez BryantSantonio Holmes

How can you put Maclin on a list without including DJAX? DJAX is being touted as a top 10 dynasty WR because of inflated value of long TDs.If anything Maclin is being under-rated, I like him to put up similar or better stats at a much cheaper cost.

How do you see Maclin getting similar or better stats than DJAX? Desean is one of the most talented and dangerous WRs in the league. The Eagles would be crazy to not make sure he gets a ton of touches. The guy has the abillity to score from anywhere on the field. BTW my list was purely for redraft.

Redraft PPR ADPDJAX #24 overall, WR11Maclin #65 overall, WR25DJAX's value is inflated by EIGHT 50+ yd TDs...sure he is a playmaker, but what happens to his numbers when he returns to the mean? Think about that, he got at minimum 400 yds and 8 TDs on 8 plays...he had one more catch than 2008, but 7 more receiving TDs...what changed?I figure him to come in around 65/1100/7...which is very similar to Maclin, who I figure in around 65/950/6 but I know I can get him much later.To me, that is the epitomy of value...which is what FBGs preaches in drafts.In fact, here is what Bloom said about him being under-rated...Sigmund Bloom - You could tell Maclin was still learning the ropes even though he started in his rookie season, so year two should bring improvements. Maclin has legit long speed and he is playing in a pass-first offense, so his ceiling is significantly higher than a typical 7th/8th round receiver. He routinely had 4-5 catches and at least 60 receiving yards upon becoming a starter last year, so 70/1000 is actually a pretty reasonable floor for Maclin this year, which is rare value at his ADP.My over-rated list starts with DJAX...

 

[Go deep]

Shonn GreeneJeremy MaclinPierre GarconDez BryantSantonio Holmes

How can you put Maclin on a list without including DJAX? DJAX is being touted as a top 10 dynasty WR because of inflated value of long TDs.If anything Maclin is being under-rated, I like him to put up similar or better stats at a much cheaper cost.

How do you see Maclin getting similar or better stats than DJAX? Desean is one of the most talented and dangerous WRs in the league. The Eagles would be crazy to not make sure he gets a ton of touches. The guy has the abillity to score from anywhere on the field. BTW my list was purely for redraft.

Redraft PPR ADPDJAX #24 overall, WR11Maclin #65 overall, WR25DJAX's value is inflated by EIGHT 50+ yd TDs...sure he is a playmaker, but what happens to his numbers when he returns to the mean? Think about that, he got at minimum 400 yds and 8 TDs on 8 plays...he had one more catch than 2008, but 7 more receiving TDs...what changed?I figure him to come in around 65/1100/7...which is very similar to Maclin, who I figure in around 65/950/6 but I know I can get him much later.To me, that is the epitomy of value...which is what FBGs preaches in drafts.In fact, here is what Bloom said about him being under-rated...Sigmund Bloom - You could tell Maclin was still learning the ropes even though he started in his rookie season, so year two should bring improvements. Maclin has legit long speed and he is playing in a pass-first offense, so his ceiling is significantly higher than a typical 7th/8th round receiver. He routinely had 4-5 catches and at least 60 receiving yards upon becoming a starter last year, so 70/1000 is actually a pretty reasonable floor for Maclin this year, which is rare value at his ADP.My over-rated list starts with DJAX...

Why do you think DJax wont get more catches, do most WR's peak in their 2nd season?Everyone assumes Maclin has nowhere to go but up, but what is stopping Jackson from becoming a 80-90 catch guy?His upside is off the charts, can you imagine the numbers DJax could put up with 90 receptions, #1 WR potential.I like Maclin in dynasty leagues, but i wouldnt expect much from him in 2010.(60, 800, 5 might be his upside)

 

[Rovers]

Shonne Greene- Soft, not very talented in comparison to other backs being taken around him at his ADP, puts the ball on the ground, can't catch a lick. A formula for underperformance in his first full season as a starter. The only thing he has going for him is playing behind that amazing line. He is my biggest bust pick based on ADP this year.

Greener is soft? If you mean he has unanswered questions about his durability, I would most definitely agree. He is a bruising powerful RB who dishes out big hits, but also takes big hits with that kind of running style. Soft in no way describes Greene. Possibly injury prone, sure, but even that is a question that needs him to play more games for an answer. His fumbling problems were at the beginning of 2009. His ball security improved. Agreed, in PPR his value drops. Greene could get 325 carries this year, if, big IF he stays healthy. But for that concern alone, I will be reluctant to take him at his ADP. His talent set suits the Jets and that O line pretty well. He is not easy to bring down. While he isn't a burner, is is fast enough to get the occassional long TD run when other teams stack the box and he gets through, as he did against SD in the playoffs. There are very few RB's around anymore that will get 300 carries, and he will, IF he can stay on the field. Combine that with his playoff success, the Jets O line, and his ADP is about right, ASSUMING he stays healthy. I can't go on that assumption.

 

[footballman_696969]

Shonn GreeneJeremy MaclinPierre GarconDez BryantSantonio Holmes

How can you put Maclin on a list without including DJAX? DJAX is being touted as a top 10 dynasty WR because of inflated value of long TDs.If anything Maclin is being under-rated, I like him to put up similar or better stats at a much cheaper cost.

How do you see Maclin getting similar or better stats than DJAX? Desean is one of the most talented and dangerous WRs in the league. The Eagles would be crazy to not make sure he gets a ton of touches. The guy has the abillity to score from anywhere on the field. BTW my list was purely for redraft.

Redraft PPR ADPDJAX #24 overall, WR11Maclin #65 overall, WR25DJAX's value is inflated by EIGHT 50+ yd TDs...sure he is a playmaker, but what happens to his numbers when he returns to the mean? Think about that, he got at minimum 400 yds and 8 TDs on 8 plays...he had one more catch than 2008, but 7 more receiving TDs...what changed?I figure him to come in around 65/1100/7...which is very similar to Maclin, who I figure in around 65/950/6 but I know I can get him much later.To me, that is the epitomy of value...which is what FBGs preaches in drafts.In fact, here is what Bloom said about him being under-rated...Sigmund Bloom - You could tell Maclin was still learning the ropes even though he started in his rookie season, so year two should bring improvements. Maclin has legit long speed and he is playing in a pass-first offense, so his ceiling is significantly higher than a typical 7th/8th round receiver. He routinely had 4-5 catches and at least 60 receiving yards upon becoming a starter last year, so 70/1000 is actually a pretty reasonable floor for Maclin this year, which is rare value at his ADP.My over-rated list starts with DJAX...

Why do you think DJax wont get more catches, do most WR's peak in their 2nd season?Everyone assumes Maclin has nowhere to go but up, but what is stopping Jackson from becoming a 80-90 catch guy?His upside is off the charts, can you imagine the numbers DJax could put up with 90 receptions, #1 WR potential.I like Maclin in dynasty leagues, but i wouldnt expect much from him in 2010.(60, 800, 5 might be his upside)

Exactly my thoughts...BN, I don't see why you think that DJax's touches will go down from last year. And I especially don't see why you think Maclin will automatically see an increase in his numbers from last year. DJax is the way better player IMO and should easily get more receptions/rushes than Maclin. It would be crazy for Kolb to target DJax and Maclin the same number of times.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

Bowe as a fantasy WR2 is about as overrated as I have seen this season. Chambers and McCluster will make things difficult for him to be startable, imo, many weeks.

 

[B. Nugget]

Shonn GreeneJeremy MaclinPierre GarconDez BryantSantonio Holmes

How can you put Maclin on a list without including DJAX? DJAX is being touted as a top 10 dynasty WR because of inflated value of long TDs.If anything Maclin is being under-rated, I like him to put up similar or better stats at a much cheaper cost.

How do you see Maclin getting similar or better stats than DJAX? Desean is one of the most talented and dangerous WRs in the league. The Eagles would be crazy to not make sure he gets a ton of touches. The guy has the abillity to score from anywhere on the field. BTW my list was purely for redraft.

Redraft PPR ADPDJAX #24 overall, WR11Maclin #65 overall, WR25DJAX's value is inflated by EIGHT 50+ yd TDs...sure he is a playmaker, but what happens to his numbers when he returns to the mean? Think about that, he got at minimum 400 yds and 8 TDs on 8 plays...he had one more catch than 2008, but 7 more receiving TDs...what changed?I figure him to come in around 65/1100/7...which is very similar to Maclin, who I figure in around 65/950/6 but I know I can get him much later.To me, that is the epitomy of value...which is what FBGs preaches in drafts.In fact, here is what Bloom said about him being under-rated...Sigmund Bloom - You could tell Maclin was still learning the ropes even though he started in his rookie season, so year two should bring improvements. Maclin has legit long speed and he is playing in a pass-first offense, so his ceiling is significantly higher than a typical 7th/8th round receiver. He routinely had 4-5 catches and at least 60 receiving yards upon becoming a starter last year, so 70/1000 is actually a pretty reasonable floor for Maclin this year, which is rare value at his ADP.My over-rated list starts with DJAX...

Why do you think DJax wont get more catches, do most WR's peak in their 2nd season?Everyone assumes Maclin has nowhere to go but up, but what is stopping Jackson from becoming a 80-90 catch guy?His upside is off the charts, can you imagine the numbers DJax could put up with 90 receptions, #1 WR potential.I like Maclin in dynasty leagues, but i wouldnt expect much from him in 2010.(60, 800, 5 might be his upside)

What is stopping him from 80-90 catches? I'd say Celek, McCoy and Maclin would be the prime suspects.60/800/5??? Seriously? He wasn't starting until Week 3 and still put up 55/762/4, come on, you are better than that.The other side of this is that DJAX is drawing the #1 corner because of his playmaking and Celek is a threat at anytime, so Maclin could be the guy to make the big jump in receptions, not DJAX.

 

[footballman_696969]

What is stopping him from 80-90 catches? I'd say Celek, McCoy and Maclin would be the prime suspects.60/800/5??? Seriously? He wasn't starting until Week 3 and still put up 55/762/4, come on, you are better than that.The other side of this is that DJAX is drawing the #1 corner because of his playmaking and Celek is a threat at anytime, so Maclin could be the guy to make the big jump in receptions, not DJAX.

DJax's number of touches didn't improve going from year 1 to year 2 even though the Eagles knew he was one of the best playmakers in the league. So what makes you think that Maclin, someone who is less of a threat at WR, should automatically get more touches going from year 1 to year 2?

 

[Go deep]

What is stopping him from 80-90 catches? I'd say Celek, McCoy and Maclin would be the prime suspects.

60/800/5??? Seriously? He wasn't starting until Week 3 and still put up 55/762/4, come on, you are better than that.

The other side of this is that DJAX is drawing the #1 corner because of his playmaking and Celek is a threat at anytime, so Maclin could be the guy to make the big jump in receptions, not DJAX.

He did that with Mcnabb. A young QB is less likely to spread the ball around, Jackson and Celek will be the top 2 targets for the Eagles, with Mccoy being 3rd. That doesnt leave much for Maclin, this season anyway.

 

[Go deep]

What is stopping him from 80-90 catches? I'd say Celek, McCoy and Maclin would be the prime suspects.

Yet, Mccoy, Jackson and Celek are not preventing Maclin from putting up more than 60 receptions?

 

[footballman_696969]

What is stopping him from 80-90 catches? I'd say Celek, McCoy and Maclin would be the prime suspects.

Yet, Mccoy, Jackson and Celek are not preventing Maclin from putting up more than 60 receptions?

 

[Instinctive]

WR-Randy Moss. Just don't like the effort he exhibits and he's starting to reach that age where many WRs start to slide. Just don't think he deserves to be the second WR drafted in redrafts.

RB-Steven Jackson-he's a beast but taken a beating on a team that is going to continue to struggle. He's likely going to be available when I pick 12th in my redraft and I'm going to pass.

That's insane. He's never been worse than RB12 since the first season when he was no longer just Faulk's handcuff, and that's even when he misses his average of 2 games per year. He played on a HISTORICALLY bad offense last year...175 points is incredibly difficult to do in the modern era, and he'll be used heavy this year a la Michael Turner. Atlanta wrote the book on bringing in a rookie QB, STL has some receivers with talent (Burton possession and Avery deep threat, Gilyard could do slot this year perhaps) enough to score closer to the middle of the pack as a team this year. I'm sure the career low in TDs will come up, but even if it doesn't, he's still a top 5 RB option every single week you start him. If I knew I could get him at the turn, I would be all over pick 10 (I don't like the ends, so 10 is where I'd go anyway)

 

[Manster]

QB Cutler- i see him imploding worse than last year. he might set a record for int's.

RB Mendenhall- i'm not touchin him with a 10 foot pole at his current ADP.

WR Austin- he'll have a great year, but i'm not sure he repeats last season

TE Finley- FF index has him at TE #1. i'm not buyin it.

 

[B. Nugget]

What is stopping him from 80-90 catches? I'd say Celek, McCoy and Maclin would be the prime suspects.

Yet, Mccoy, Jackson and Celek are not preventing Maclin from putting up more than 60 receptions?

We can agree to disagree, but if you want to put a sig bet about DJAX and his 50+ yd TDs, which is where his top 10-12 value is derived, that is fine with me.I predicted 65 catches for each of them, with DJAX getting more yards and TDs...I just think you can take a legit top 10 WR in that draft spot and then come back and get similar production out of Maclin 4+ rounds later.Have either of you seen the projections from FBGs? 2 of the 4 FBGs projected less than 65 catches for DJAX and 3 of the 4 projected Maclin to have more catches...DJAX projections... REC YD Y/R TD FPT David Dodds 67 1025 15.3 7 157 Bob Henry 64 1020 15.9 8 161 Jason Wood 68 1030 15.1 7 161 Maurile Tremblay 63 981 15.6 6 141 JMAC projections... REC YD Y/R TD FPT David Dodds 66 878 13.3 6 126 Bob Henry 67 926 13.8 5 124 Jason Wood 69 990 14.3 5 133 Maurile Tremblay 64 877 13.7 5 120 These are pretty much in line with what I'm saying...but you guys obviously disagree.Sorry to derail the thread, just defending why I think DJAX is over-rated...

 

[footballman_696969]

What is stopping him from 80-90 catches? I'd say Celek, McCoy and Maclin would be the prime suspects.

Yet, Mccoy, Jackson and Celek are not preventing Maclin from putting up more than 60 receptions?

We can agree to disagree, but if you want to put a sig bet about DJAX and his 50+ yd TDs, which is where his top 10-12 value is derived, that is fine with me.I predicted 65 catches for each of them, with DJAX getting more yards and TDs...I just think you can take a legit top 10 WR in that draft spot and then come back and get similar production out of Maclin 4+ rounds later.Have either of you seen the projections from FBGs? 2 of the 4 FBGs projected less than 65 catches for DJAX and 3 of the 4 projected Maclin to have more catches...DJAX projections... REC YD Y/R TD FPT David Dodds 67 1025 15.3 7 157 Bob Henry 64 1020 15.9 8 161 Jason Wood 68 1030 15.1 7 161 Maurile Tremblay 63 981 15.6 6 141 JMAC projections... REC YD Y/R TD FPT David Dodds 66 878 13.3 6 126 Bob Henry 67 926 13.8 5 124 Jason Wood 69 990 14.3 5 133 Maurile Tremblay 64 877 13.7 5 120 These are pretty much in line with what I'm saying...but you guys obviously disagree.Sorry to derail the thread, just defending why I think DJAX is over-rated...

Quoting the FBG staff projections doens't explain why you think DJAX's touches will go down while Maclin's will go up. As I said aboveJax's number of touches didn't improve going from year 1 to year 2 even though the Eagles knew he was one of the best playmakers in the league. So what makes you think that Maclin, someone who is less of a threat at WR, should automatically get more touches going from year 1 to year 2?

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I know it is still late July, but some players are being taken way too early in drafts. This list is subject to change as these guys will probably move up and down throughout the preseason, but as of July 27th here is my All-Overrated Team of 2010.

QB - Kevin Kolb

QB is actually the hardest position to find an overrated player. Most QB's are fairly valued, but Kolb stands out as the current best option here. In the FBG PPR staff draft Kolb went at 7.06. In the mid-July top 300 PPR list, FBG has Kolb at QB9. Some things to keep in mind is that he is filling in for McNabb who never threw for 4,000 yards in his career as an Eagle and often finished in the low 20's in TD's. Is Kolb going to do marginally better than McNabb? It is possible, but the Eagles have a declining offensive line and a limited running game. Given that Kolb is also entering his first year as a starter, why would he be drafted or ranked ahead of Eli Manning who through for over 4,000 yards last year and 27 TD's. E. Manning is entering the prime of his career, but is ranked lower than Kolb. It doesn't make a lot of sense. I like Kolb and think he will be good, just odds are he won't live up to his current ranking of QB 9. Even if you do not want to draft E. Manning, you could wait and still get guys like Favre, Flacco, or Ryan in the 9th round who will likely have similar or better numbers than Kolb.

RB - Knowshon Moreno

Moreno was drafted at 3.11 in the FBG PPR Staff draft earlier this month and is ranked at RB11 in the FBG PPR top 300. Moreno finished with roughly 950 rushing yards and 250 receiving yards and 9 TD's in his rookie year. Those numbers are not terrible, but why would he move up from around RB20 where he finished last year all the way to number 11? He had zero games with 100 yards rushing last year which is pretty hard to do. He also averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. At RB11, he seems too high. There is much better value to be had later.

RB - Marion Barber

Barber is now the Cowboys number 2 option at RB. He is currently ranked as the #41 RB in the top 300 and went at 7.06 in the FBG PPR Staff draft. That seems way too high for a guy with so little upside. Even if something happens to F. Jones this year, Barber still has Tashard Choice to deal with. Barber seemed to lose a step last year and was already lacking in speed. He's a guy I would pass on if drafted anywhere in the top 10 rounds. He's the kind of guy who is on his way down in his career and is the kind of guy that will add nothing to your lineup.

WR - Michael Crabtree

Crabtree is the #1 Overrated player so far this preseason. He finished 2009 averaging just 9.8 PPG in PPR leagues. Is the fact that he is making his first full training camp vaulting him up the rankings? He was drafted 3.06 in the FBG Staff PPR league and is ranked as WR22 in the top 300. He is a decent talent on a team that can't throw the ball very well. If you are taking him in the 3rd round of a draft you need WR1 like production out of a guy that likely will end up being a mediocre #2 WR on most fantasy teams. There are so many better guys you can get in the 5th and 6th rounds that make taking Crabtree in the 3rd a waste.

WR - Percy Harvin

Harvin had a great rookie season. He went 4.04 in the FBG Staff PPR draft and is ranked as the #17 ranked WR in the top 300. He is not a terrible stretch here, but with so many other options on the Vikings his upside is limited. He finished at about WR 25 last year in PPR leagues. Given that he had a great rookie season and still finished around the #25 WR, how much higher than that can he go? Not much without changes in the Vikings pecking order. Taking him in the fourth round is too high.

WR - Dez Bryant

Drafted at 5.02 in the FBG PPR Staff league and is ranked as WR 36 in the FBG top 300. He is a rookie on a team loaded with offensive weapons. No doubt that he is a massive talent and getting into training camp early will help him. But rookie WR's tend to struggle AND there just aren't enough footballs to go around in Dallas to give Bryant a chance to perform that highly. In the fifth round, there are way too many solid guys out there to go after an unproven rookie WR.

Kolb - How do you explain the two 300 yd games in first two career starts last year? Beginner's luck? Rodgers also looms here as reason to take Kolb as QB1 in QBBC.Moreno - Rice, Charles, and Mendenhall were totally unimpressive in their rookie seasons. By all accounts Moreno has been workin like a dog to improve on last year's issues.

MB3 - was playing most of year with a hole in his quad, by all accounts looks good again, if anything quicker than before. In same role with 06-07 Cowboys was a top 15 back

Crabtree - I don't totally buy in to it, but I can see the argument that if he was that good coming in cold, he'll be something else this year, even in a poor passing offense (which created the #1 fantasy TE last year)

Seems like you are putting a lot of stock in last year's numbers - i dont know if thats wise for rooks who can really transform in their first full offseason.

In terms of the rookie thing, more than likely he'll be correct on a couple and wrong on a couple. On his list there definately will be some that are overrated but they're all not going to be bad.I like your reasoning on MB3, I don't see too many people talking about that injury he had early on last season, even Cowboy fans. I'm really interested in seeing him this year. The only thing I can say about that is towards the end of last season, I was hearing he was close to 100 percent from that injury but I didn't see it in Barber. So I don't know if he really lost a step or he wasn't really 100 percent healed and they were just saying that, hard to gauge. Either way, I know that I saw a harder running Barber very early on last season and after that leg injury, he never looked to same to me. This coming from a guy that watched just about every Dallas snap last year. I'll be able to tell very early on if Barber really has lost a step or does he have it back this year.

On the Kolb thing, it's possible to have a couple big games the year before and flop the next. I think of Scott Mitchell who played well in relief for Dan Marino, then left Miami to Detroit and was a bad QB. Now, Kolb hasn't left the team he did well for last year but he didn't have the kind of pressures he has right now either. I think predicting Kolb as a possible overrated QB has some merit at this point. He's definately the kind of guy you're either in his corner or you're not.

 

[Banger]

Completely disagree with the MB3 overrating....he finished as RB20 last year while missing a game and playing through a nasty injury. Even if Jones has his coming out party MB is still going to get short yardage/goal line touches, mop up, etc. His ADP is his downside and I'd like to see your projections and Dallas splits. Ironically, F. Jones finished as RB41 last year and had 800 yards and 3 tds which equates to 100 fantasy points. I'd easily take the gamble that MB performs equal or better than that.

 

[Nagle2998]

Qb Kevin Kolb- I hate to pick the same players as others but I think a lot of the guys I believe are overrated were already picked and Kolb would top my list. People love to point out those two games against average pass defenses but unless he cuts down big time on INT Reid isn't going to let him throw more then McNabb did for a whole season. I like Kolb a lot more in dynasty then redraft.

Rb- Shonne Greene- I actually like Greene to put up late number two numbers but a lot of people are picking him to be a number one rb or a stud two and I just don't see it unless you play in a real heavy TD league. He doesn't get the catches and I think the Jets will run less this year and Tomlinson will get more carries then people believe.

Wr- Hakeem Nicks- I think a lot of people think he is going to just come in and be the number one in NY but I still believe it will be Smith and I don't think Nicks is anywhere near the stud others do. He did a very good job as the number three but he was in the lineup almost as much as Manningham and did almost the same thing. The Giants play a lot of three Wr sets so he isn't going to be in there a ton more then he was last year and in the two games Manningham missed Hicks numbers were worse not better.

Wr-Jeremy Maclin- I like Maclin but I think Kolbs's skill sets benefit Jackson a lot more then they do Maclin and because of that I think Maclins might actually have worse numbers this year while Jackson, Celek and McCoy do slightly better.

Now the one guy I wanted to stick up for is Moreno because I think his numbers are a bit misleading. I know for the year he averaged 3.8 YPC but I believe that's because he hit the famous rookie wall at the end of the year and he hit it hard. The last four games he averaged a 2.66 YPC but prior to that he averaged a 4.25 YPC. Moreno also had 7 games were the coach gave him less the 15 carries which also helped keep his numbers down and a big reason he never got over 100 for a game. Most of the time when rb's who aren't pure speed guys get over 100 it's because they are allowed to carry it more then 20 times a game but Moreno most carries outside of the last four game was 21. I also love Moreno's 2nd half schedule this year and I expect his carries, YPC, catches, receiving yards and TD's to all go up. The only thing that worries me about Moreno is his HC but hopefully that will change after this year since I admit I am a Moreno dynasty owner in a few leagues.

 

[Nagle2998]

Qb Kevin Kolb- I hate to pick the same players as others but I think a lot of the guys I believe are overrated were already picked and Kolb would top my list. People love to point out those two games against average pass defenses but unless he cuts down big time on INT Reid isn't going to let him throw more then McNabb did for a whole season. I like Kolb a lot more in dynasty then redraft.

Rb- Shonne Greene- I actually like Greene to put up late number two numbers but a lot of people are picking him to be a number one rb or a stud two and I just don't see it unless you play in a real heavy TD league. He doesn't get the catches and I think the Jets will run less this year and Tomlinson will get more carries then people believe.

Wr- Hakeem Nicks- I think a lot of people think he is going to just come in and be the number one in NY but I still believe it will be Smith and I don't think Nicks is anywhere near the stud others do. He did a very good job as the number three but he was in the lineup almost as much as Manningham and did almost the same thing. The Giants play a lot of three Wr sets so he isn't going to be in there a ton more then he was last year and in the two games Manningham missed Hicks numbers were worse not better.

Wr-Jeremy Maclin- I like Maclin but I think Kolbs's skill sets benefit Jackson a lot more then they do Maclin and because of that I think Maclins might actually have worse numbers this year while Jackson, Celek and McCoy do slightly better.

Now the one guy I wanted to stick up for is Moreno because I think his numbers are a bit misleading. I know for the year he averaged 3.8 YPC but I believe that's because he hit the famous rookie wall at the end of the year and he hit it hard. The last four games he averaged a 2.66 YPC but prior to that he averaged a 4.25 YPC. Moreno also had 7 games were the coach gave him less the 15 carries which also helped keep his numbers down and a big reason he never got over 100 for a game. Most of the time when rb's who aren't pure speed guys get over 100 it's because they are allowed to carry it more then 20 times a game but Moreno most carries outside of the last four game was 21. I also love Moreno's 2nd half schedule this year and I expect his carries, YPC, catches, receiving yards and TD's to all go up. The only thing that worries me about Moreno is his HC but hopefully that will change after this year since I admit I am a Moreno dynasty owner in a few leagues.

 

[B. Nugget]

What is stopping him from 80-90 catches? I'd say Celek, McCoy and Maclin would be the prime suspects.

Yet, Mccoy, Jackson and Celek are not preventing Maclin from putting up more than 60 receptions?

We can agree to disagree, but if you want to put a sig bet about DJAX and his 50+ yd TDs, which is where his top 10-12 value is derived, that is fine with me.I predicted 65 catches for each of them, with DJAX getting more yards and TDs...I just think you can take a legit top 10 WR in that draft spot and then come back and get similar production out of Maclin 4+ rounds later.Have either of you seen the projections from FBGs? 2 of the 4 FBGs projected less than 65 catches for DJAX and 3 of the 4 projected Maclin to have more catches...DJAX projections... REC YD Y/R TD FPT David Dodds 67 1025 15.3 7 157 Bob Henry 64 1020 15.9 8 161 Jason Wood 68 1030 15.1 7 161 Maurile Tremblay 63 981 15.6 6 141 JMAC projections... REC YD Y/R TD FPT David Dodds 66 878 13.3 6 126 Bob Henry 67 926 13.8 5 124 Jason Wood 69 990 14.3 5 133 Maurile Tremblay 64 877 13.7 5 120 These are pretty much in line with what I'm saying...but you guys obviously disagree.Sorry to derail the thread, just defending why I think DJAX is over-rated...

Quoting the FBG staff projections doens't explain why you think DJAX's touches will go down while Maclin's will go up. As I said aboveJax's number of touches didn't improve going from year 1 to year 2 even though the Eagles knew he was one of the best playmakers in the league. So what makes you think that Maclin, someone who is less of a threat at WR, should automatically get more touches going from year 1 to year 2?

I quoted the FBG staff projections because you seem to think that I pulled some crazy numbers out of my head, I was simply showing that there are others that think Maclin is going to be good.Who says Maclin is less of a threat? That is your opinion, it is backed up by a season that will be very, very hard to replicate for DJAX because it tied an NFL season record with EIGHT TDs longer than 50 yds. A healthy Maclin on his pace from last year, as a rookie, with no improvement to year 2 would have played and started 2 more games to get to the 16 that DJAX played. He had 55 catches in 14 games, which breaks down to 3.93 catches per game. 3.93 x 16 games puts him at 62.88...does 65 catches seem that far out of line for him? It seems like you have an issue with me projecting a similar number of catches, is that the hang-up?I think DJAX is going to regress to the mean, which means 1,000-1,100 receiving and roughly the same amount of catches...the difference is that I don't think he will crack off a 50+ yard TD every other game and you will see his total yards and TDs go down without the unpredictable long TDs thrown in there. He is still a good player and a great playmaker, but people expecting him to bust off the long TDs at the rate he was able to last year are going to be sorely dissappointed...because those long TDs are what caused him to become a top 10 player at his position.I guess you think CJ2K is a sure bet for at least THREE runs of 85+ yds too, right? He did that last year, no other player in NFL history has more than 2 in their career. Did you think Randy Moss was a sure bet for 23 TDs in 2008 following his record breaking 2007 season?Bottomline: It's not that I don't like the guy, I just think he had a season for the ages and that his value has peaked...which makes him over-rated.

 

[Go deep]

I quoted the FBG staff projections because you seem to think that I pulled some crazy numbers out of my head, I was simply showing that there are others that think Maclin is going to be good.Who says Maclin is less of a threat? That is your opinion, it is backed up by a season that will be very, very hard to replicate for DJAX because it tied an NFL season record with EIGHT TDs longer than 50 yds. A healthy Maclin on his pace from last year, as a rookie, with no improvement to year 2 would have played and started 2 more games to get to the 16 that DJAX played. He had 55 catches in 14 games, which breaks down to 3.93 catches per game. 3.93 x 16 games puts him at 62.88...does 65 catches seem that far out of line for him? It seems like you have an issue with me projecting a similar number of catches, is that the hang-up?I think DJAX is going to regress to the mean, which means 1,000-1,100 receiving and roughly the same amount of catches...the difference is that I don't think he will crack off a 50+ yard TD every other game and you will see his total yards and TDs go down without the unpredictable long TDs thrown in there. He is still a good player and a great playmaker, but people expecting him to bust off the long TDs at the rate he was able to last year are going to be sorely dissappointed...because those long TDs are what caused him to become a top 10 player at his position.I guess you think CJ2K is a sure bet for at least THREE runs of 85+ yds too, right? He did that last year, no other player in NFL history has more than 2 in their career. Did you think Randy Moss was a sure bet for 23 TDs in 2008 following his record breaking 2007 season?Bottomline: It's not that I don't like the guy, I just think he had a season for the ages and that his value has peaked...which makes him over-rated.

You keep bringing up his long TD's. I dont think anyone is expecting Jackson to have that many again. I just think he will catch more passes and more "short" TD's. He will still have his share of long TD's, he is the most expolsive WR in the league.

 

[Joe T]

Completely disagree with the MB3 overrating....he finished as RB20 last year while missing a game and playing through a nasty injury. Even if Jones has his coming out party MB is still going to get short yardage/goal line touches, mop up, etc. His ADP is his downside and I'd like to see your projections and Dallas splits. Ironically, F. Jones finished as RB41 last year and had 800 yards and 3 tds which equates to 100 fantasy points. I'd easily take the gamble that MB performs equal or better than that.

I'll admit, you guys have me thinking on Marion Barber a little bit. Maybe he doesn't deserve to be on the All-Overrated team, but I still think he is slightly overvalued.I think you might be wrong on short yardage. Last season, the Cowboys totally gave up on Barber in short yardage and started going to gimmick wildcat formations, pitches to Austin or Felix, or short passes. Barber, though he may have been hurt, could not get 1 yard when needed. It might have been an O-line problem or it might of been Barber's injury or a combination of both, but he could not get it done in short yardage last season.You do make a good point on mop up yards. The Cowboys are good and likely to be ahead in games where Barber will do his work in the 4th quarter.I still see little upside to him where he is being drafted, but maybe I am off on his downside risk.

 

[Mr.Underhill]

RB - Marion Barber

Barber is now the Cowboys number 2 option at RB. He is currently ranked as the #41 RB in the top 300 and went at 7.06 in the FBG PPR Staff draft. That seems way too high for a guy with so little upside. Even if something happens to F. Jones this year, Barber still has Tashard Choice to deal with. Barber seemed to lose a step last year and was already lacking in speed. He's a guy I would pass on if drafted anywhere in the top 10 rounds. He's the kind of guy who is on his way down in his career and is the kind of guy that will add nothing to your lineup.

WR - Percy Harvin

Harvin had a great rookie season. He went 4.04 in the FBG Staff PPR draft and is ranked as the #17 ranked WR in the top 300. He is not a terrible stretch here, but with so many other options on the Vikings his upside is limited. He finished at about WR 25 last year in PPR leagues. Given that he had a great rookie season and still finished around the #25 WR, how much higher than that can he go? Not much without changes in the Vikings pecking order. Taking him in the fourth round is too high.

Good thread that should generate discussion.I couldnt disagree more about MBIII though. I think he is seriously Undervalued at RB41. Playing last year with a significant quad injury Barber still averaged a more than respectable 4.4 ypc. Early indications are that he looks lighter and quicker this year and, at 27, I think it's pre-mature to say he is on the downside of his career. This is a guy who has had 46 TDs the last 4 years, plays in an offense that will create plenty of scoring opportunities, and is still likely to be the best option at the GL. To say he has little upside and is the kind of guy that will add nothing to your lineup is ridiculous IMO.

Not to mention that Felix hasn't played all 16 in either of his first two seasons and is already having knee swelling issues this summer. I see Choice as 3rd in the pecking order if Barber is healthy. Barber could be a steal at that position if Felix's knee continues to be troublesome. Sure, Barber has had his own injury issues, but at this point headed into the 2010 season I think you have to rate Felix as the bigger injury risk.

 

[Banger]

Completely disagree with the MB3 overrating....he finished as RB20 last year while missing a game and playing through a nasty injury. Even if Jones has his coming out party MB is still going to get short yardage/goal line touches, mop up, etc. His ADP is his downside and I'd like to see your projections and Dallas splits. Ironically, F. Jones finished as RB41 last year and had 800 yards and 3 tds which equates to 100 fantasy points. I'd easily take the gamble that MB performs equal or better than that.

I'll admit, you guys have me thinking on Marion Barber a little bit. Maybe he doesn't deserve to be on the All-Overrated team, but I still think he is slightly overvalued.I think you might be wrong on short yardage. Last season, the Cowboys totally gave up on Barber in short yardage and started going to gimmick wildcat formations, pitches to Austin or Felix, or short passes. Barber, though he may have been hurt, could not get 1 yard when needed. It might have been an O-line problem or it might of been Barber's injury or a combination of both, but he could not get it done in short yardage last season.You do make a good point on mop up yards. The Cowboys are good and likely to be ahead in games where Barber will do his work in the 4th quarter.I still see little upside to him where he is being drafted, but maybe I am off on his downside risk.

I think you should consider last year an anomoly with respect to his speed and power due to his injury. It's not as if he's a 30+ year old RB that fell off a cliff. When he initially got hurt it was expected that he would miss several weeks at a minimum and missed one and played through it. I think they gave up on him because he didn't have the push and power due to the quad injury (which is where you are going to get your power from). I actually think he's being undervalued and is one of the guys I'm looking to scoop in the middle rounds.