Altering the draft by creating a run (1 Viewer)

[Sweet Love]

I've been meaning to post this for a while, but while our drafts are fresh in our heads, I thought I would throw this out there. This concept is different than what Paul Charchian used to call "upside down drafting" (at least that is what I think he called it), where you do the opposite of the runs (when he coined this term, it was at a time when everyone went almost recklessly RB heavy in the first two rounds...much of that probably had to do with lack of PPR, but that is not the point). What I am discussing is actually manufacturing a run by the picks you make (kind of like bull rushing people into making a decision). For example, a guy in my 12 team PPR went Foster/S-Jax/Martin with his first three picks, and it literally caused a rush on RBs where Hillis and McGahee ended up going in the 5th, and Turner in the 4th..., it is not earth-shattering, but what he was able to do was create breathing room for himself to get three decent WRs (Lloyd, Decker and Britt) and pushed the urgency by drafting Tate at the swing in the 7th...now he punted on QB and TE (and that will likely kill him), but he was able to alter the draft in his favor.

I think the flex position (and I even play in one league with two of them) has enabled people to do this more now than even in the past. I have done this myself where I went WR-WR-WR in a PPR, but never really thought about the ramifications of that (if any). I am sure many of us have done this, but am curious as to whether it helped, hurt or made no difference in your team.

 

[footballnerd]

I play in a defense heavy league where I observed defense were being picked in the 6th and 7th rounds in previous years. I decided to grab SF in the 6th and nearly the next 12 D's came off the board after. Did I start that or was just ahead of the curve? Other than that I don't really pay attention or notice runs I should say I pay more attention to my trigger points for each pos.

what your league mate did just sounds like he's following a start 2 RB 1 RBflex Perfect Draft strategy.

 

[[icon]]

I don't find it possible to "Create a run" but I do try to be on the front side of runs. This works better if you're at one of the ends drafting (could just be my perception). Certain leagues definitely have trends... for example one of my "big money" leagues always sees TE runs starting around the 4th or 5th round. I've found it's nice to get in on the front of those. It seems like if 2 people over a 3 or 4 pick span take them then they start flying off the board.

Defenses are another one, though in MOST leagues I just let those play out and grab a solid RB3 or WR3 instead.

IN a defense heavy league this year (new to it) I was high fiving my buddy because we caught the front end of TE and DEF runs... seemingly "triggering them'. Was nice to see picks fly off the board and having the other guy I wanted come back to me as a result.

 

[Bronx Bomber]

I tried this in my 2QB league and it didn't reallt work. We start 2RB, 3WR, TE and no flex in addition to the 2QBs. I kept Stafford as 2nd picking 9/10. Went DMC then Richardson at 3. Thought Id get a head start on QB2 by taking RGIII at the start of the 4th. At that pont I think 10 or 11 QBs were gone and I didnt want to be lwft with a low end QB coming back...the rest of the 4th was pretty much all WRs with Cutler and Luck going also. So I missed out on Nicks, Green, Jordy, Harvin, etc. I feel lucky to have ended up with Dez, Stevie and Lloyd but it was nerve racking. So be careful if you try to start a run I guess is my point.

Also know your league. These guys thought I was really early with taking RGIII so I could have waited and had a better WR1.

Hope this had a good point and was on topic. Not trying to talk up my team.

 

[DoubleG]

The best spot to "start a run" is when you have the 11th or 12th pick (or 13th or 14th in bigger leagues). Often, if the top 2-4 WRs are still there, and you can snag one (at 11) the 12 guy will at least pick up another. You take another WR after the turn, then watch everyone scramble in the 2nd and 3rd to try to get the last "true WR1". It works best in true serpentine, because the guys with 9 and 10 know that everyone else is going to get to pick twice - and 3 of the top WRs are already gone.

Then go RB at the 3-4 turn. Golden.

 

[The Jerk]

The question of how it pays off is simpler than how to initiate a run. The payoff if you are at the start of a run is that you are getting theoretically a better player at the position that is now being run on than all the other teams, and simultaneously, the value of your next pick(s) should be improved because those other position players are not being drafted. The best of both worlds.

In a league where QBs go more quickly than they should, this helps the owners who have the top three QBs. If 8 QBs are drafted in the first two rounds, then the Rodgers owner (if everything holds to form) should have an advantage on all 7 other teams that went QB significantly early, and the Rodgers owner also benefits from having other players slide that would normally be drafted before the next pick.

Of course, if the top tier of tight ends, for example, is fairly large and there is not a big difference between players, then the run is not as advantageous to the owners at the start of the run. Not true this year of course, but after Gates, this was roughly true most seasons from 2005-2009 or so. In 2012, if you were able to get Gronk or Graham and kick off a tight end run of 5-7 players, no matter what round, you got an edge on all of those other teams plus the fact that they aren't taking QB/RB/WR with those picks improved you next pick(s) as well.

[icon]'s example is a good one that I also was able to occasionally contribute to in the past. WR runs are possible too when drafting at the turn as DoubleG suggests. Some leagues are conducive to QB runs, either as 2 QB leagues which makes some sense, or just an unusual scoring league and/or league mentality. I've seen owners panic because QBs went more quickly than they expected, and you can almost smell the thought that they could miss out on nearly all of their QB options. Obviously, these owners are almost certainly non-FBG types, and they probably figured they'd have no trouble getting at worst the 7th-8th QB off the board, but a run can make them panic and feeling that they just can't afford to wait another round or two.

I was drafting 11th of 12 this year in a 6pt QB TD league, and the 10th QB was taken at pick 34! I went RB, then the 12-slot owner drafted Matt Schaub!! As if he was not going to be there two or four or even six rounds later! I asked him after the draft what he was thinking, as both my team and his were the only two without QBs. And he admitted that he flat out panicked. I ended up going QB in the 6th round and of course, no other QBs had been taken between pick 34 and pick 62. The interesting part is that this league was originally too QB-heavy and had seemingly gotten away from it from 2005-2010 drafts, but the huge numbers put up the past two seasons by QBs have reignited a strong emphasis on QBs among many of these owners. I'd guess 6 of the 12 owners in this league are FBG-level, another 3-4 are fairly unconventional in fantasy terms but know football well enough to put together a competitive team, and there are 2 owners that just feed the payout pot.

 

[Yolkix]

In a 12 team ppr with only 4 points per throwing TD I saw a guy draft Romo with the first pick in the 4th round. He drafted him over Ryan, Vick, Eli, etc and this started a serious run of ppl panicking at QB. Ryan, Vick, and Eli all went within the next 4 picks.

 

[Shawn]

I am in a start 2QB(6pt pass td) 2rb 2wr 1te 2flex league, and after i pulled my 2nd QB in round 2 Cam (position 6 in the draft) I watched people scrambling for peyton, cutler etc as I swooped in and scored 2 top 5 RBs and Roddy White the next 3 picks.

 

[Ryan99]

You can often trigger one by taking the first player in a tier, when the tier is fairly well agreed on. For instance, if you take the 3rd TE (tier after Gronk, Graham) or the 6th QB (after Stafford, Newton) it will often trigger the remainder of the tier. Its harder to do this with RB and WR since people are always drafting this position anyway. The only place I can think you could do this with WR is the second WR (whoever you think that is), but you'll have to draft that guy really early and its not worth it in my opinion. This year you'll have to get him early second, and you're better off going RB there.

It seems like a minor benefit, but I think its actually quite advantageous to go one or two rounds early on Def and K. I know that most people wait until the last two rounds, so I grab my def in the third to last round (and usually wind up with a top 6 def) and my kicker in the second to last (top 5 guaranteed). The player I actually wanted in the third to last round is almost always still there in the last round since everyone's going Def, K. If people eventually catch on, I'll just move it up a round.

 

[kegger]

Some very good points made here. (definitely keeping a mental note of a few)

Def and QB seem to be the ones in most of my leagues where you can try to make this happen.

And like mentioned either starting a tier, OR ending one that has decent stuff after it that

dries up the "quality" at that position pretty quickly so people panic not to be left out there.

Also to help it, Talk it up, Like Yah there's not much good left there now for everyone to get

good 1's while there available, yu snooze yu loose an you'll get left with garbage pretty darn soon.

 

[[icon]]

It is ALWAYS good schtick to start yelling "here comes the kicker run!" whenever the typical jackass takes gostkowski in the 6th round.

 

[Zeff]

The potential value, if there's any, is in the idea that by taking a player and hoping to "start a run," you increase (even slightly) the chance that a specific high-value target player (or players) you think wouldn't be available on your next selection under normal circumstances MIGHT be there if the run happens.

E.g., say I value Peyton Manning and Dwayne Bowe about equally, and in a perfect world would like both now that we're here in the 6th (or whatever) round of a draft. I pick now, and then there's a gap of 10 selections before I pick again. I see that a few of the guys between me and my next pick need a QB, but they could also use more help at WR. There are only a few guys left who I see as being in the current tier at each position.

Given all that, my best chance of landing both guys may be in attempting to leverage the relative scarcity at QB, and hoping my opponents see jumping into the QB run as the higher value strategy than completely culling the WRs.

If I take Bowe first, I fear the QB run starts in the gap between my picks, and since I see Manning as a real threat to be the first one taken from this tier, I'm betting I lose out on him...and maybe on the entire tier.

But if I take Manning now, I'm hoping Romo, Rivers, and maybe RG3 or Big Ben come off the board, meaning more WR's drop to me at the next pick. And since WR's are overall deeper, and more clustered together in value, I'm gambling that there's nobody who likes Bowe in particular so much that they regard him as a must-get target. I feel like this at least slightly IMPROVES my chances that Bowe in particular will be one of the guys who filters down...and gives me an even greater chance that I at LEAST get a WR from that tier, by trying to start the run at the position of greater scarcity first.

(ETA: specific players and relative values are for illustrative purposes only, and may not jibe with actual drafts.)

 

[bbuster]

I found it much easier this year to start runs for whatever reason. As others have said, it seems easier from an end position, but I found it to work pretty much anywhere. If a position like DST scores a decent amount of points as it does in my leagues, I usually wait until at least 3 have been taken. SF was taken very early this year, so following it up with a DST pick right away is not the way to start a run. Most will just wait. Once 3 DST were off the board, I would grab one and find that the people who really wanted to get at least a top 5 D would grab one right away. That would start a run of people who wanted to make sure they at least got a top 10 D. This worked in all of my leagues, but it really held true for a league I'm in that starts 2 D's. In start 2QB leagues, the runs start themselves, and they start fast. The position I was most surprised about this year was the TE runs. The top 2 going off the board so early seemed to affect the position. It seemed that people were a little desperate this year and were more willing to reach for their TE this year.

In terms of how it affects your draft(or how it benefits you) is that you not only secure a top 3-5 at a position, but while others are scrambling to get that position, good value plays at other ones are falling to you.