Amari Cooper Player Spotlight (1 Viewer)

[32 Counter Pass]

Yes, there some history to suggest Gruden will force feed Cooper.

Joey Galloway accounted for 34.5 percent of Tampa Bay's receiving yards (third-highest rate in the NFL in that time frame), under Jon Gruden.

Antonio Bryant accounted for 32.9 percent of Tampa Bay's receiving yards (eighth-highest rate that year), under Gruden in 2008.

 

[DropKick]

As someone who tried to buy low, only for him to drop lower, I'm not ecstatic about his future prospects. It seems like injuries have held him back, but they keep that tightly under wraps so it's hard to be sure. (Carr said he fought through lots of injuries last season)

Cooper has the upside to become a top 5 WR in the league, but has the downside to be a WR4. I think he splits the difference and starts to average WR2 for a couple years. That's still a solid WR, but I'd take him a little later than he's currently being drafted. I don't think that Gruden is some miracle cure that makes Cooper bounce back like Gurley with McVay.

I've always had interest in Cooper and want to believe... but I am growing cynical as the seasons pass.  Shot down in two leagues on deals for Amari in 2016.  Have you seen any recent deals for Cooper and, if so, what do people think is market value?

 

[Chaka]

On my short list for come back player of the year.

 

[TripItUp]

On my short list for come back player of the year.

why?

 

[Chaka]

why?

I think he fits Gruden's offense better than any player on the team.

I see Timmy Brown 2.0 in a league that is more pass happy than ever.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I think Cooper represents a big opportunity. I see him going late third, maybe early fourth. So he is coming off the board as a WR2. There is a reasonable probability he exceeds his currnet ADP.  

• Gruden has some history of heavily targeting a talented WR.
  
• Carr is an asset.
  
• Cooper has maintained a strong ypc avg, and increased his TD producton, despite almost 40 targets less. 
  
• Schedule is very friendly
  

I think if Cooper plays 16 this season he easily exceeds his ADP.

 

[Sarlakticacid]

I think Cooper represents a big opportunity. I see him going late third, maybe early fourth. So he is coming off the board as a WR2. There is a reasonable probability he exceeds his currnet ADP.  

• Gruden has some history of heavily targeting a talented WR.
  
• Carr is an asset.
  
• Cooper has maintained a strong ypc avg, and increased his TD producton, despite almost 40 targets less. 
  
• Schedule is very friendly
  

I think if Cooper plays 16 this season he easily exceeds his ADP.

Uninjured 

 

[Chaka]

Uninjured 

That caveat applies to every single player in the league.

 

[Chaka]

I think Cooper represents a big opportunity. I see him going late third, maybe early fourth. So he is coming off the board as a WR2. There is a reasonable probability he exceeds his currnet ADP.  

• Gruden has some history of heavily targeting a talented WR.
  
• Carr is an asset.
  
• Cooper has maintained a strong ypc avg, and increased his TD producton, despite almost 40 targets less. 
  
• Schedule is very friendly
  

I think if Cooper plays 16 this season he easily exceeds his ADP.

Gruden doesn't have some history, he has consistent long term history of targeting talented WRs. Better yet he has history or heavily targeting the most talented WR on his team regardless of overall talent relative to the rest of the league (looking at you Michael Clayton).

I think 140 targets is Amari's floor.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

 

[Tau837]

Cooper had 10 drops his rookie season.  He's had 8 on 227 targets since, 3 in 2016 and 5 last year. Crabtree in that same two year time period has 14 drops on 246 targets, led the league with 9 in 2016 and like Cooper had 5 last year. But hey, let's all keep the false narrative going that Cooper was the guy on the Raiders the last two years who had an issue with drops.

There were 97 posts in this thread before this one. About 8 of them mentioned drops. It hasn't really been a strong focal point in the discussion, which makes this post seem a bit odd.

Moving beyond drops as a statistic, do you think Cooper has good hands? I assume even you would agree that his hands are not a strength, and that contributes to his overall performance.

 

[Tau837]

Yes, there some history to suggest Gruden will force feed Cooper.

Joey Galloway accounted for 34.5 percent of Tampa Bay's receiving yards (third-highest rate in the NFL in that time frame), under Jon Gruden.

Antonio Bryant accounted for 32.9 percent of Tampa Bay's receiving yards (eighth-highest rate that year), under Gruden in 2008.

Yes, and Michael Clayton and Ike Hilliard were the #2 and #3 WRs on those teams. Do you think Jordy and Bryant are better or worse right now than Clayton and Hilliard in those seasons?

 

[Tau837]

Schedule is very friendly

Based on what? Clayton Gray's Ultimate WR SOS released in late June shows OAK with the 5th worst schedule overall and the 4th worst in weeks 14-16.

 

[Tau837]

Uninjured 

That caveat applies to every single player in the league.

The point here is that the excuse for Cooper's poor play over the past 1.5 seasons is that he has played through a series of injuries. So we have a track record of his play dropping off due to injuries that are not serious enough to keep him off the field.

 

[Tau837]

I think 140 targets is Amari's floor.

 at this being a floor, i.e., his bare minimum number of targets.

 

[Chaka]

 at this being a floor, i.e., his bare minimum number of targets.

Check the history. Gruden's #1 WR consistently drew 130-140 targets even with competent (McCardell) or good (Rice/Brown) complimentary WRs.

Like it or not Cooper is the clear #1 WR in this offense and that guy draws targets in Gruden's offense.

 

[menobrown]

There were 97 posts in this thread before this one. About 8 of them mentioned drops. It hasn't really been a strong focal point in the discussion, which makes this post seem a bit odd.

Huh? Might want to look closer.

 

[Tau837]

Huh? Might want to look closer.

I counted the posts. 8 out of 97 posts mentioned drops. And 3 of those were not critical (e.g., saying drops are not predictive).

Maybe you should look closer.

 

[Tau837]

Check the history. Gruden's #1 WR consistently drew 130-140 targets even with competent (McCardell) or good (Rice/Brown) complimentary WRs.

Like it or not Cooper is the clear #1 WR in this offense and that guy draws targets in Gruden's offense.

Yeah, already posted quite a bit on Gruden's history and how it applies here earlier in this thread.

And again at 140 targets being his floor.

 

[menobrown]

I counted the posts. 8 out of 97 posts mentioned drops. And 3 of those were not critical (e.g., saying drops are not predictive).

Maybe you should look closer.

You want to pick a fight over nothing you argue alone. Try looking about 1-2 posts up form the one I made. Waste of my time.

 

[Tau837]

You want to pick a fight over nothing you argue alone. Try looking about 1-2 posts up form the one I made. Waste of my time.

I'm not picking a fight, dude. I simply commented that your post seemed odd to me and why. If you disagree, that's fine.

ETA: And the post 2 above yours didn't mention drops, it claimed that Cooper often fails to get his feet in bounds on sideline catches. I have no idea if that is the true or not, but it is not the same thing you posted about. Odd reaction from you on my post, which was not intended to pick a fight.

 

[az_prof]

If we're playing the "if healthy" game then Nelson is just as much a candidate for top targets.  And he doesn't fail to catch the ball nearly as much as Cooper.  Carr's been a team guy and had Cooper's back so far (can you imagine Rodgers or Brady playing with him?) but he's gotta be getting sick of putting the ball in a spot and watching Amari toe-tap the chalk a foot out of bounds.  At some point Carr is going to lose trust and look elsewhere.  He's probably a lock for 100 targets because of his age/investment/potential but I could easily see him moving to 2nd or 2nd1/2 fiddle status if he keeps losing the ball in the lights.

Jordy Nelson is 33 years old and coming off a down year.  I would much rather play the 'injury' game betting on the guy who is 10 years younger and knows the offense and QB.

Cooper had 130 targets two out of the last three seasons and he was hurt last year. The main competion for targets, Crabtree, is gone. 130 targets is Coopers FLOOR. He could easily get the 145 targets that Crabtree used to get.  Martavis has never had more than 90 targets and 50 receptions and I don't see that likely changing. Jordy has been a target marchine in the past but the Packers jettisoned him for a reason and at age 33 I don't see him returning to his old form.  

There were 589 targets on Raiders in 2016 and 552 last season. Let's assume 560 targets.

RBs 122 targets

Is Cook getting more than the 86 got last year? I don't see much change in targets for either RB or TE as personnel is the same.  That leaves 352 targets for WRs.

Cooper: 140

Jordy: 90

Bryant: 80

50 targets for the rest of the receivers

 

[menobrown]

I'm not picking a fight, dude. I simply commented that your post seemed odd to me and why. If you disagree, that's fine.

ETA: And the post 2 above yours didn't mention drops, it claimed that Cooper often fails to get his feet in bounds on sideline catches. I have no idea if that is the true or not, but it is not the same thing you posted about. Odd reaction from you on my post, which was not intended to pick a fight.

Failing to not come up with the ball and losing it in the lights is not drops to you? That's a rhetorical question, as I won't actually be able to see your response if you catch my drift.

You come out of nowhere attacking me making a post without merit which was a response to on a post I responded to, just did not quote. Then you took the time to count how many posts referenced drops but no you are not looking to pick a fight?  What a weirdo. Like I said you can argue alone, done with you.

 

[Tau837]

Failing to not come up with the ball and losing it in the lights is not drops to you? That's a rhetorical question, as I won't actually be able to see your response if you catch my drift.

You come out of nowhere attacking me making a post without merit which was a response to on a post I responded to, just did not quote. Then you took the time to count how many posts referenced drops but no you are not looking to pick a fight?  What a weirdo. Like I said you can argue alone, done with you.

Well, I tried to send you a PM, but you blocked me as implied here. I assume you won't see this, but will post anyway in case you remove the block.

I honestly was not attacking you, and I am perplexed that you think so. The fact that you posted without quoting another post made it seem to me like you were making a general response to a general theme of the thread, especially since it was a rather strong/sarcastic post. So your post seemed odd to me, since my reading of the thread had not brought out much of a theme on drops. I counted the references to drops to check my impression.

So I said in my first response that I found your post "a bit odd" since I didn't think drops had been a focal point of discussion. That is an attack around here now?

I also said in my first response to you, we can move away from drops and talk more generally about his hands instead, but you apparently did not care about making that distinction or continuing a discussion about his hands or catching ability. That is your prerogative, but to block me over this exchange seems like an overreaction IMO.

 

[Chaka]

Yeah, already posted quite a bit on Gruden's history and how it applies here earlier in this thread.

And again at 140 targets being his floor.

Haven't read what you posted but I'm sure I will get to it eventually.

Gruden's history is very clear. You may argue that Jordy is the #1 WR, which is a defensible position. But you cannot argue that his #1 WR will see a high volume of targets. If you want to call it somewhere between 122 & 153, that's fine. I won't   over it or argue with you.

I see Cooper as the best WR Gruden has coached since he had the aging Rice and Brown and if he could get those two 125 & 140 targets respectively in 2001 I have no problem projecting him to get Cooper at least that in 2018.

 

[Tau837]

Jordy Nelson is 33 years old and coming off a down year.  I would much rather play the 'injury' game betting on the guy who is 10 years younger and knows the offense and QB.

Cooper had 130 targets two out of the last three seasons and he was hurt last year. The main competion for targets, Crabtree, is gone. 130 targets is Coopers FLOOR. He could easily get the 145 targets that Crabtree used to get.  Martavis has never had more than 90 targets and 50 receptions and I don't see that likely changing. Jordy has been a target marchine in the past but the Packers jettisoned him for a reason and at age 33 I don't see him returning to his old form.  

There were 589 targets on Raiders in 2016 and 552 last season. Let's assume 560 targets.

RBs 122 targets

Is Cook getting more than the 86 got last year? I don't see much change in targets for either RB or TE as personnel is the same.  That leaves 352 targets for WRs.

Cooper: 140

Jordy: 90

Bryant: 80

50 targets for the rest of the receivers

I will take a shot at this.

Assuming full health and no suspensions for everyone on offense. Assuming 580 passing attempts:

• RBs: 130 targets
  
  Lynch: 30
  
• Martin: 30
  
• Richard: 45
  
• Others: 25
  

[*]TEs: 120

• 
  Cook: 90
  
• Others: 30
  

[*]WRs: 320

• 
  Cooper: 120
  
• Nelson: 95
  
• Bryant: 80
  
• Others: 25
  

[*]Other: 10

• 
  Throwaways: 10
  

 

[Toomuchnv]

What's being lost in all this is it was more than just injuries that held back Cooper and Carr last season.  The coaching staff was downgraded from the previous seasons with Musgrave as the OC.  So using last season's stats and only half of the 2016 season's stats to fit a narrative is disingenuous.

Cooper under Gruden's system absolutely could be Tim Brown 2.0. Upgrades in coaching and offensive system changes are often overlooked every year in FF.

Look at Todd Gurley going into last years FF drafts vs this years FF drafts as an example.  Last year he was being drafted in the 2nd/3rd round because noone was taking into account the change from Fisher to McVay.  Now this year he is being drafted 1st or 2nd overall.

This sort of thing happens every year in fantasy football.

 

[TripItUp]

Cooper under Gruden's system absolutely could be Tim Brown 2.0. Upgrades in coaching and offensive system changes are often overlooked every year in FF.

Except Tim Brown is a Hall of Famer and Cooper, well, not so much.

 

[Toomuchnv]

Except Tim Brown is a Hall of Famer and Cooper, well, not so much.

Way to cherry pick...the point is there has always been a target hog on every Gruden coached team.  Even during the Rice/Brown/Porter/Garner era.

Cooper is also still very young for a wr going into his 4th season.  Plenty of prime years left.

 

[TripItUp]

Way to cherry pick...the point is there has always been a target hog on every Gruden coached team.  Even during the Rice/Brown/Porter/Garner era.

Cooper is also still very young for a wr going into his 4th season.  Plenty of prime years left.

But has his "prime" been good?  If you're not a very good WR, is it safe to assume that said WR becomes a "target hog."

Why are we immediately dismissing the fact that Martavis Bryant and Jordy Nelson are now on the team?

 

[tombonneau]

Way to cherry pick...the point is there has always been a target hog on every Gruden coached team.  Even during the Rice/Brown/Porter/Garner era.

Cooper is also still very young for a wr going into his 4th season.  Plenty of prime years left.

I made this point earlier. I firmly believe Cooper's best season has yet to be played. You'd have to struggle really hard to find a WR that started out with such promising seasons and didn't improve. 

 

[TripItUp]

 I firmly believe Cooper's best season has yet to be played. 

Let's hope so after last year.

 

[Chaka]

But has his "prime" been good?  If you're not a very good WR, is it safe to assume that said WR becomes a "target hog."

Why are we immediately dismissing the fact that Martavis Bryant and Jordy Nelson are now on the team?

I don't think anyone is dismissing Bryant and Nelson. I'm certainly not. Nelson has a legitimate shot to be the #1 WR over Cooper. I don't see Gruden scheming for Bryant to be in position to be a target monster but he'll certainly get his opportunities.

 

[Tau837]

Why does everyone who comments on Gruden assume that his offenses from 1998-2008 are predictive of his offense in 2018? Most of those commenting on Gruden are commenting on how he has always had a high target WR1. In the past decade since he got out of NFL coaching, he has watched a lot of film, practices, etc. of both college and NFL offenses in his job for ESPN. Isn't it possible that he has changed his philosophy, at least somewhat?

 

[Chaka]

Bad hand eye coordination is a legitimate concern for Cooper fans. I think that is an extremely difficult skill to improve but it can improve with good coaching. Lack of focus is another potential issue but I don't think that happens on a Gruden team. 

Cooper is still an amazing route runner and seems to have all the skills and football IQ to get open regularly. 

Okay he's not a physical specimen like Julio but when did that become the sole prerequisite to becoming a dominant WR? Cooper is an amazing, fluid athlete who can run every route and is smart enough to  identify soft spots in the defense and set up DBs to exploit them later in  games.

I agree with the Gurley reference. A coaching switch can have amazing and immediate impact. Personally I think Coop has the tools and Gruden has the coaching ability to maximize those tools.

 

[Chaka]

And no I don't think Cooper is going to put up 2,000+ yards and 19 TDs.

 

[Chaka]

Can you imagine if the Raiders had given up on Timmy after his fifth season?

 

[Ghost Rider]

Why does everyone who comments on Gruden assume that his offenses from 1998-2008 are predictive of his offense in 2018? Most of those commenting on Gruden are commenting on how he has always had a high target WR1. In the past decade since he got out of NFL coaching, he has watched a lot of film, practices, etc. of both college and NFL offenses in his job for ESPN. Isn't it possible that he has changed his philosophy, at least somewhat?

Excellent point. I will admit to being extremely jaded about Cooper after owning him last year (loved his monster game against KC, but he was a disaster for most of the rest of the season), but I will be surprised if he suddenly puts up WR1 numbers again.  He just looked like a guy who is not a great catcher of the football, and I think Gruden is accumulating enough weapons to where I can't see any one player get force fed the ball on a weekly basis. 

 

[voiceofunreason]

Way to cherry pick...the point is there has always been a target hog on every Gruden coached team.  Even during the Rice/Brown/Porter/Garner era.

Cooper is also still very young for a wr going into his 4th season.  Plenty of prime years left.

But how’s it cherry picking when he commented on the only example you gave?

 

[Chaka]

Why does everyone who comments on Gruden assume that his offenses from 1998-2008 are predictive of his offense in 2018? Most of those commenting on Gruden are commenting on how he has always had a high target WR1. In the past decade since he got out of NFL coaching, he has watched a lot of film, practices, etc. of both college and NFL offenses in his job for ESPN. Isn't it possible that he has changed his philosophy, at least somewhat?

I am quite certain he has learned a great deal during his hiatus. Why should that be a concern? Anything he learned, and chooses to apply, could just as easily benefit Cooper as hurt him.

 

[Toomuchnv]

Why does everyone who comments on Gruden assume that his offenses from 1998-2008 are predictive of his offense in 2018? Most of those commenting on Gruden are commenting on how he has always had a high target WR1. In the past decade since he got out of NFL coaching, he has watched a lot of film, practices, etc. of both college and NFL offenses in his job for ESPN. Isn't it possible that he has changed his philosophy, at least somewhat?

Why does everyone that thinks Cooper is a bust using last seasons stats as the main reason?  You do realize that team had a first time OC after having Musgrave prior to that.  It is pretty common knowledge that the Raiders offensive gameplan last season was very basic, vanilla schemes with an inexperienced coordinator calling the plays.  The players lacked confidence in the coaches playcalling abilities and it had a negative impact on the field. 

No different then the Rams 2 seasons ago under Fisher.  Remember all the Goff is a bust talk?  Its pretty obvious to me the Raiders have a huge upgrade in coaching philosophy and most Raiders offensive personnel is being undervalued because of last seasons stats.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

Cooper is far from a bust.  He is 24 years old.  He had 1000 yard seasons his first 2 years in the NFL.  

Gruden will scheme him open more this year than he has ever been in his career.

I think Cooper should return towards his upper mean as the deep threat in the offense.  Gruden will work on his route running and I would expect that to help Cooper's game. 

71 rec 1150 yds 6 tds.   

 

[Tau837]

Why does everyone that thinks Cooper is a bust using last seasons stats as the main reason?  You do realize that team had a first time OC after having Musgrave prior to that.  It is pretty common knowledge that the Raiders offensive gameplan last season was very basic, vanilla schemes with an inexperienced coordinator calling the plays.  The players lacked confidence in the coaches playcalling abilities and it had a negative impact on the field. 

Cooper was pretty bad during the second half of 2016 also, as has been posted earlier in this thread. So his bad streak is not limited to 2017. That actually carries a lot of weight with me, since that makes it the last 1.5 seasons -- half his career -- not 1 bad season.

 

[Toomuchnv]

Cooper was pretty bad during the second half of 2016 also, as has been posted earlier in this thread. So his bad streak is not limited to 2017. That actually carries a lot of weight with me, since that makes it the last 1.5 seasons -- half his career -- not 1 bad season.

Coaching and offensive philosophy changes carry more weight for me than stats under a different regime. Gruden has said repeatedly they are going to move him around and Amari is going to be the main vein of his passing offense.  He even called him a young Tim Brown.

 

[Tau837]

Coaching and offensive philosophy changes carry more weight for me than stats under a different regime. Gruden has said repeatedly they are going to move him around and Amari is going to be the main vein of his passing offense.  He even called him a young Tim Brown.

What exactly is the offensive philosophy change from last year to this year? I don't know the differences between last year's offensive philosophy and the offensive philosophy to be used in 2018.

 

[Toomuchnv]

What exactly is the offensive philosophy change from last year to this year? I don't know the differences between last year's offensive philosophy and the offensive philosophy to be used in 2018.

 I can tell you the players were extremely frustrated with the offensive strategy and play calling last season.  Poor play design, conservative playcalling, etc...a volatile locker room between players, coaches were not on the same page, etc...if you want to keep your head in the sand and ignore all that and just point to stats from last season and only half of the prior season, thats your choice.

But coaching changes matter, ignoring that seems ludicrous to me.  It is pretty common for the FF community to focus more on prior year stats and make their cheatsheets from the prior season, while ignoring how each team has changed with coaching.

I have said it repeatedly in this thread, the prime example of this happened last season with Todd Gurley.  He had an average to below average season under Jeff Fisher.  They made a coaching change and the FF community didnt react to that as Gurley (a 1st round ff pick 2 years ago) was going in the 2nd/3rd round last year.  Those that got him there more than likely won their league or at the least made the playoffs.  Now this year Gurley is going consistently in the top 3 all because of a coaching/philosophy change.

If you don't think Gruden is an upgrade for the Raiders offense then you don't know how bad the Raiders offensive coaching personnel was last season.  

Raiders offensive players are being undervalued all across the board right now in the ff community because most aren't paying attention to the coaching changes.  Carr is one of the best qb's Gruden has had since Gannon and look what he did with Gannon.

 

[tombonneau]

What exactly is the offensive philosophy change from last year to this year? I don't know the differences between last year's offensive philosophy and the offensive philosophy to be used in 2018.

If they run more than one play action pass a game it's an improvement in offensive philosophy. 

 

[tombonneau]

I have said it repeatedly in this thread, the prime example of this happened last season with Todd Gurley.  He had an average to below average season under Jeff Fisher.  They made a coaching change and the FF community communist didnt react to that as Gurley (a 1st round ff pick 2 years ago) was going in the 2nd/3rd round last year.  Those that got him there more than likely won their league or at the least made the playoffs.  Now this year Gurley is going consistently in the top 3 all because of a coaching/philosophy change.

The similarities even extend to the second half of their previous seasons. Gurley had a bad second half of rookie year and as he slumped in year 2 this was repeatedly cited by his detractors. Same thing with Cooper. 

I posted his 2016 highlights previously but they are worth a repost:

Amari 2016 Highlights

Even if you just watch the first two plays and the fourth vs Denver. This kid did not forget how to play like this. Heathy and in a proper offense this is a top 5 capable WR. 

 

[TripItUp]

Gurley comp is terrible for a multitude of obvious reasons.

 

[Tau837]

But coaching changes matter, ignoring that seems ludicrous to me.

Who is ignoring the coaching change? We have been discussing it extensively in this thread, since everyone with a positive view on Cooper feels compelled to cite what Gruden did with his #1 WR 10+ years ago.

I was hoping for something more specific. For example, it was linked earlier in the thread that Cooper struggles with press coverage, and teams recognizing that was part of the dropoff in his play in the middle of the 2016 season. Has Gruden said anything about giving him more routes out of the slot, stacking him at the line, putting him in motion, etc.? I would view that as a positive for Cooper, but I haven't read anything along those lines.