I mentioned in another thread that I was surprised that FBG doesn't spend more time doing post-season reviews and analyzing what lessons we can take into next season. I started giving this a lot of thought and decided to write out some of my own thoughts for myself, and figured I may as well post it, in case it's useful to anyone.
#1 Don't ever write anyone off (watch for the post-hype sleeper)
I saw a lot of discussion about Darren McFadden leading up to the season where people would write him off because "he's a bum," or "he's a bust." Fine, and fair enough -- he certainly had been a bust heading into last season. But he'd also just turned 23 when the season started, had an excellent pedigree, and was on a team that was committed to running the ball. There was certainly no reason to "reach" for McFadden, but if he was around at a point where he clearly provided value, the pick made sense, regardless of what he'd done in the past. We've seen the same thing before with Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson and I even think people knocked down LeSean McCoy going into last season because they'd made up their mind that he was a mediocre talent who couldn't carry the load, despite the fact that he was in an excellent situation going into the season. Some guys take longer to get it together, either because they need a wake-up call in terms of attitude or because they needed new circumstances or both, but it's important to remain objective, not hold grudges and remember that if a guy is picked at the top of the first round, it's (almost always) for a reason. The talent is there. Brandon Lloyd is another one -- he looked like an interesting deep sleeper on a team that had put up fairly impressive passing numbers in 2009 and he had very little competition -- but I admittedly wrote him off as a bum rather than spending a last-round pick on him or even wanting to take a chance on picking him up after the first week.
#2 Don't overanalyze quotes from coaches and players (a variation of don't pay much attention to preseason performance)
In the past, I'd tried to gather every little tidbit of information that I could, thinking I'd pick something up from an obscure quote by a coach, coordinator, or player that would give me an edge on other owners. What I realized the hard way over the years is that what happened instead is that my mind got crowded with so much different and conflicting information that it was hard for me to think clearly about players at times. Beyond that, many of the quotes are either lies, exaggerations, or off-handed comments that get taken out of context. And we won't even get into the "I'm in the best shape of my life" stuff. I know you're reading this and thinking "no ****." But I really think this one is easier said than done. While we understand intellectually that we should take all of this stuff with more than a grain of salt, we're also excited and impatient for the season to start and we're in search of information. Anything, really, that we can analyze and talk to death. Which is fine, and it's part of the fun, but it also leads to overthinking certain things. It's the reason a lot of people knocked down Rashard Mendenhall a few spots going into the season -- whispers about the Steelers using a goal-line back. I made a conscious effort to take a bit of a step back in terms of the amount of analyzing and reading I did in the pre-season, and, while I still made mistakes, I think it also allowed me to go into the draft with a clearer head that wasn't clouded with doubts planted by quotes that may or may not have anything behind them.
#3 NFL coaches really, truly don't care about what's best for your fantasy team (don't reach too high for guys with viable competition)
Another "no ***" reaction, I'm sure. But while this one seems obvious now, it's something that I personally need to be constantly reminded of. Everyone wanted Chris Wells to emerge as a true #1. It made so much sense! Problem was that Tim Hightower is a good NFL player, the coach trusted him, and he was coming off a strong performance in the 2009 playoffs. Shonn Greene ran into the same issue. While I avoided Wells, I was firmly on the Ryan Mathews bandwagon. This was a tougher one. I'd heard people say he could be on a shorter leash than some people realized because of the presence of Tolbert and Sproles, but I actually thought Mathews was one of the safest picks around. I wrote Tolbert off as a non-factor and saw Sproles' role decreasing as he was coming off a down season. But, sure enough, Mathews' issues with picking up the blitz, catching the ball, and ball security (not to mention health) opened the door for Tolbert and Sproles. Hindsight is 20 20, and, while I obviously wish I'd taken Roddy White instead of him at the end of the 2nd, I can objectively acknowledge that the pick was a reach even at the time (which I didn't see).
#4 Good teams create opportunities for RB's (be a little more bullish on RB's playing for strong teams)
I realize that we don't have a crystal ball and can't see the win/loss records for teams when we go into the draft, but there are quite a few teams that we all knew would be strong, and when teams are playing with leads, they're obviously more likely to run the ball. This serves a dual purpose: it means that you don't need to panic when a guy like Ray Rice gets off to a slow start. Sure, he didn't build on 2010, but he got his stats when all was said and done. But it also means that when you're in the later rounds of your draft, it's worth looking at RB's on better teams. BJGE and Brandon Jacobs were good examples. I was too busy swinging for the fences with Leon Washington when I should've been looking at a guy like Jacobs, who still represented strong value so late.
Please feel free to add to this -- again, I know some of it is obvious, but I still find it very useful.
#1 Don't ever write anyone off (watch for the post-hype sleeper)
I saw a lot of discussion about Darren McFadden leading up to the season where people would write him off because "he's a bum," or "he's a bust." Fine, and fair enough -- he certainly had been a bust heading into last season. But he'd also just turned 23 when the season started, had an excellent pedigree, and was on a team that was committed to running the ball. There was certainly no reason to "reach" for McFadden, but if he was around at a point where he clearly provided value, the pick made sense, regardless of what he'd done in the past. We've seen the same thing before with Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson and I even think people knocked down LeSean McCoy going into last season because they'd made up their mind that he was a mediocre talent who couldn't carry the load, despite the fact that he was in an excellent situation going into the season. Some guys take longer to get it together, either because they need a wake-up call in terms of attitude or because they needed new circumstances or both, but it's important to remain objective, not hold grudges and remember that if a guy is picked at the top of the first round, it's (almost always) for a reason. The talent is there. Brandon Lloyd is another one -- he looked like an interesting deep sleeper on a team that had put up fairly impressive passing numbers in 2009 and he had very little competition -- but I admittedly wrote him off as a bum rather than spending a last-round pick on him or even wanting to take a chance on picking him up after the first week.
#2 Don't overanalyze quotes from coaches and players (a variation of don't pay much attention to preseason performance)
In the past, I'd tried to gather every little tidbit of information that I could, thinking I'd pick something up from an obscure quote by a coach, coordinator, or player that would give me an edge on other owners. What I realized the hard way over the years is that what happened instead is that my mind got crowded with so much different and conflicting information that it was hard for me to think clearly about players at times. Beyond that, many of the quotes are either lies, exaggerations, or off-handed comments that get taken out of context. And we won't even get into the "I'm in the best shape of my life" stuff. I know you're reading this and thinking "no ****." But I really think this one is easier said than done. While we understand intellectually that we should take all of this stuff with more than a grain of salt, we're also excited and impatient for the season to start and we're in search of information. Anything, really, that we can analyze and talk to death. Which is fine, and it's part of the fun, but it also leads to overthinking certain things. It's the reason a lot of people knocked down Rashard Mendenhall a few spots going into the season -- whispers about the Steelers using a goal-line back. I made a conscious effort to take a bit of a step back in terms of the amount of analyzing and reading I did in the pre-season, and, while I still made mistakes, I think it also allowed me to go into the draft with a clearer head that wasn't clouded with doubts planted by quotes that may or may not have anything behind them.
#3 NFL coaches really, truly don't care about what's best for your fantasy team (don't reach too high for guys with viable competition)
Another "no ***" reaction, I'm sure. But while this one seems obvious now, it's something that I personally need to be constantly reminded of. Everyone wanted Chris Wells to emerge as a true #1. It made so much sense! Problem was that Tim Hightower is a good NFL player, the coach trusted him, and he was coming off a strong performance in the 2009 playoffs. Shonn Greene ran into the same issue. While I avoided Wells, I was firmly on the Ryan Mathews bandwagon. This was a tougher one. I'd heard people say he could be on a shorter leash than some people realized because of the presence of Tolbert and Sproles, but I actually thought Mathews was one of the safest picks around. I wrote Tolbert off as a non-factor and saw Sproles' role decreasing as he was coming off a down season. But, sure enough, Mathews' issues with picking up the blitz, catching the ball, and ball security (not to mention health) opened the door for Tolbert and Sproles. Hindsight is 20 20, and, while I obviously wish I'd taken Roddy White instead of him at the end of the 2nd, I can objectively acknowledge that the pick was a reach even at the time (which I didn't see).
#4 Good teams create opportunities for RB's (be a little more bullish on RB's playing for strong teams)
I realize that we don't have a crystal ball and can't see the win/loss records for teams when we go into the draft, but there are quite a few teams that we all knew would be strong, and when teams are playing with leads, they're obviously more likely to run the ball. This serves a dual purpose: it means that you don't need to panic when a guy like Ray Rice gets off to a slow start. Sure, he didn't build on 2010, but he got his stats when all was said and done. But it also means that when you're in the later rounds of your draft, it's worth looking at RB's on better teams. BJGE and Brandon Jacobs were good examples. I was too busy swinging for the fences with Leon Washington when I should've been looking at a guy like Jacobs, who still represented strong value so late.
Please feel free to add to this -- again, I know some of it is obvious, but I still find it very useful.