What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Analyzing last season (1 Viewer)

TS Garp

Footballguy
I mentioned in another thread that I was surprised that FBG doesn't spend more time doing post-season reviews and analyzing what lessons we can take into next season. I started giving this a lot of thought and decided to write out some of my own thoughts for myself, and figured I may as well post it, in case it's useful to anyone.

#1 Don't ever write anyone off (watch for the post-hype sleeper)

I saw a lot of discussion about Darren McFadden leading up to the season where people would write him off because "he's a bum," or "he's a bust." Fine, and fair enough -- he certainly had been a bust heading into last season. But he'd also just turned 23 when the season started, had an excellent pedigree, and was on a team that was committed to running the ball. There was certainly no reason to "reach" for McFadden, but if he was around at a point where he clearly provided value, the pick made sense, regardless of what he'd done in the past. We've seen the same thing before with Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson and I even think people knocked down LeSean McCoy going into last season because they'd made up their mind that he was a mediocre talent who couldn't carry the load, despite the fact that he was in an excellent situation going into the season. Some guys take longer to get it together, either because they need a wake-up call in terms of attitude or because they needed new circumstances or both, but it's important to remain objective, not hold grudges and remember that if a guy is picked at the top of the first round, it's (almost always) for a reason. The talent is there. Brandon Lloyd is another one -- he looked like an interesting deep sleeper on a team that had put up fairly impressive passing numbers in 2009 and he had very little competition -- but I admittedly wrote him off as a bum rather than spending a last-round pick on him or even wanting to take a chance on picking him up after the first week.

#2 Don't overanalyze quotes from coaches and players (a variation of don't pay much attention to preseason performance)

In the past, I'd tried to gather every little tidbit of information that I could, thinking I'd pick something up from an obscure quote by a coach, coordinator, or player that would give me an edge on other owners. What I realized the hard way over the years is that what happened instead is that my mind got crowded with so much different and conflicting information that it was hard for me to think clearly about players at times. Beyond that, many of the quotes are either lies, exaggerations, or off-handed comments that get taken out of context. And we won't even get into the "I'm in the best shape of my life" stuff. I know you're reading this and thinking "no ****." But I really think this one is easier said than done. While we understand intellectually that we should take all of this stuff with more than a grain of salt, we're also excited and impatient for the season to start and we're in search of information. Anything, really, that we can analyze and talk to death. Which is fine, and it's part of the fun, but it also leads to overthinking certain things. It's the reason a lot of people knocked down Rashard Mendenhall a few spots going into the season -- whispers about the Steelers using a goal-line back. I made a conscious effort to take a bit of a step back in terms of the amount of analyzing and reading I did in the pre-season, and, while I still made mistakes, I think it also allowed me to go into the draft with a clearer head that wasn't clouded with doubts planted by quotes that may or may not have anything behind them.

#3 NFL coaches really, truly don't care about what's best for your fantasy team (don't reach too high for guys with viable competition)

Another "no ***" reaction, I'm sure. But while this one seems obvious now, it's something that I personally need to be constantly reminded of. Everyone wanted Chris Wells to emerge as a true #1. It made so much sense! Problem was that Tim Hightower is a good NFL player, the coach trusted him, and he was coming off a strong performance in the 2009 playoffs. Shonn Greene ran into the same issue. While I avoided Wells, I was firmly on the Ryan Mathews bandwagon. This was a tougher one. I'd heard people say he could be on a shorter leash than some people realized because of the presence of Tolbert and Sproles, but I actually thought Mathews was one of the safest picks around. I wrote Tolbert off as a non-factor and saw Sproles' role decreasing as he was coming off a down season. But, sure enough, Mathews' issues with picking up the blitz, catching the ball, and ball security (not to mention health) opened the door for Tolbert and Sproles. Hindsight is 20 20, and, while I obviously wish I'd taken Roddy White instead of him at the end of the 2nd, I can objectively acknowledge that the pick was a reach even at the time (which I didn't see).

#4 Good teams create opportunities for RB's (be a little more bullish on RB's playing for strong teams)

I realize that we don't have a crystal ball and can't see the win/loss records for teams when we go into the draft, but there are quite a few teams that we all knew would be strong, and when teams are playing with leads, they're obviously more likely to run the ball. This serves a dual purpose: it means that you don't need to panic when a guy like Ray Rice gets off to a slow start. Sure, he didn't build on 2010, but he got his stats when all was said and done. But it also means that when you're in the later rounds of your draft, it's worth looking at RB's on better teams. BJGE and Brandon Jacobs were good examples. I was too busy swinging for the fences with Leon Washington when I should've been looking at a guy like Jacobs, who still represented strong value so late.

Please feel free to add to this -- again, I know some of it is obvious, but I still find it very useful.

 
Rotoworld does a post-hype team every season and that's a few players I always take a shot on too. Plus, most of these guys you can get cheap which usually works out pretty well. Somewhat of a buy low theory.

 
I mentioned in another thread that I was surprised that FBG doesn't spend more time doing post-season reviews and analyzing what lessons we can take into next season. I started giving this a lot of thought and decided to write out some of my own thoughts for myself, and figured I may as well post it, in case it's useful to anyone.

#1 Don't ever write anyone off (watch for the post-hype sleeper)

I saw a lot of discussion about Darren McFadden leading up to the season where people would write him off because "he's a bum," or "he's a bust." Fine, and fair enough -- he certainly had been a bust heading into last season. But he'd also just turned 23 when the season started, had an excellent pedigree, and was on a team that was committed to running the ball. There was certainly no reason to "reach" for McFadden, but if he was around at a point where he clearly provided value, the pick made sense, regardless of what he'd done in the past. We've seen the same thing before with Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson and I even think people knocked down LeSean McCoy going into last season because they'd made up their mind that he was a mediocre talent who couldn't carry the load, despite the fact that he was in an excellent situation going into the season. Some guys take longer to get it together, either because they need a wake-up call in terms of attitude or because they needed new circumstances or both, but it's important to remain objective, not hold grudges and remember that if a guy is picked at the top of the first round, it's (almost always) for a reason. The talent is there. Brandon Lloyd is another one -- he looked like an interesting deep sleeper on a team that had put up fairly impressive passing numbers in 2009 and he had very little competition -- but I admittedly wrote him off as a bum rather than spending a last-round pick on him or even wanting to take a chance on picking him up after the first week.

#2 Don't overanalyze quotes from coaches and players (a variation of don't pay much attention to preseason performance)

In the past, I'd tried to gather every little tidbit of information that I could, thinking I'd pick something up from an obscure quote by a coach, coordinator, or player that would give me an edge on other owners. What I realized the hard way over the years is that what happened instead is that my mind got crowded with so much different and conflicting information that it was hard for me to think clearly about players at times. Beyond that, many of the quotes are either lies, exaggerations, or off-handed comments that get taken out of context. And we won't even get into the "I'm in the best shape of my life" stuff. I know you're reading this and thinking "no ****." But I really think this one is easier said than done. While we understand intellectually that we should take all of this stuff with more than a grain of salt, we're also excited and impatient for the season to start and we're in search of information. Anything, really, that we can analyze and talk to death. Which is fine, and it's part of the fun, but it also leads to overthinking certain things. It's the reason a lot of people knocked down Rashard Mendenhall a few spots going into the season -- whispers about the Steelers using a goal-line back. I made a conscious effort to take a bit of a step back in terms of the amount of analyzing and reading I did in the pre-season, and, while I still made mistakes, I think it also allowed me to go into the draft with a clearer head that wasn't clouded with doubts planted by quotes that may or may not have anything behind them.

#3 NFL coaches really, truly don't care about what's best for your fantasy team (don't reach too high for guys with viable competition)

Another "no ***" reaction, I'm sure. But while this one seems obvious now, it's something that I personally need to be constantly reminded of. Everyone wanted Chris Wells to emerge as a true #1. It made so much sense! Problem was that Tim Hightower is a good NFL player, the coach trusted him, and he was coming off a strong performance in the 2009 playoffs. Shonn Greene ran into the same issue. While I avoided Wells, I was firmly on the Ryan Mathews bandwagon. This was a tougher one. I'd heard people say he could be on a shorter leash than some people realized because of the presence of Tolbert and Sproles, but I actually thought Mathews was one of the safest picks around. I wrote Tolbert off as a non-factor and saw Sproles' role decreasing as he was coming off a down season. But, sure enough, Mathews' issues with picking up the blitz, catching the ball, and ball security (not to mention health) opened the door for Tolbert and Sproles. Hindsight is 20 20, and, while I obviously wish I'd taken Roddy White instead of him at the end of the 2nd, I can objectively acknowledge that the pick was a reach even at the time (which I didn't see).

#4 Good teams create opportunities for RB's (be a little more bullish on RB's playing for strong teams)

I realize that we don't have a crystal ball and can't see the win/loss records for teams when we go into the draft, but there are quite a few teams that we all knew would be strong, and when teams are playing with leads, they're obviously more likely to run the ball. This serves a dual purpose: it means that you don't need to panic when a guy like Ray Rice gets off to a slow start. Sure, he didn't build on 2010, but he got his stats when all was said and done. But it also means that when you're in the later rounds of your draft, it's worth looking at RB's on better teams. BJGE and Brandon Jacobs were good examples. I was too busy swinging for the fences with Leon Washington when I should've been looking at a guy like Jacobs, who still represented strong value so late.

Please feel free to add to this -- again, I know some of it is obvious, but I still find it very useful.
Sometimes doing the opposite of these is a good idea. For example, rule #2. It was the little blurbs from coaches in the offseason down in Houston that made me believe Arian Foster was going to win the job, and as a result I was able to get him long before the hype train started. It was the coachspeak that tipped me to the fact that Jerome Harrison wasn't going to cut it in CLE (drafting Hardesty obviously sealed the deal but still).All in all a great writeup. Just saying that once in a while the opposite is true. Probably a case by case thing.

 
Very good writeup. Some solid reminders there. I will provide a counter-point to #1 however. I'm speaking about dynasty specifically. You HAVE to write people off. At least you have to if you're ever going to win. Will you be spectacularly wrong (eg: McFadden) from time to time? Sure. But unless you carry rosters of 40-50, 16 teams deep - and some leagues do - you can't afford to hang onto a team of maybe's and possibly's. There comes a time when you need to call a spade a spade. And for every, McFadden there's guys we lose track of because their early career swoon turns into a just plain career swoon. Hanging onto everything just because he's a first or second round NFL draft talent is as much a mistake as the opposite.

I think the key to it is research and backing up your decisions to hold or cut bait with sound reasoning. As long as you do that, I think you'll have better long term success than either of the two extremes.

 
#5 Don't select anyone on the Coach-Otis All Value Team.

Better to swim with the guppies than get shot down like a hawk.

#6 Don't select anyone Lhucks is hyping.

Another no #### reaction I'm sure.

 
last year there were a couple weeks where there were 6 teams on byes....this year there are 4 weeks like that....don't be afraid to load up early on RB in your draft if they fall to you and represent value.....I saw many teams scrambling to find serviceable RB's because of bye weeks and then maybe an injury or something as well....you know ahead of time there are probably 4 weeks where you could be starting your "extra" RB, let alone if you have a injury to one of your top guys.....I think the "extra RB" whether that is RB3 or RB4 (depending on how many you can start) is one of the most overlooked yet most used spots on your roster....get the advantage on the rest of your league during those weeks by grabbing a strong extra RB if he falls to you....

assume even the magazine drafters are getting better and getting more fantasy information

abuse the waiver wire like it is your little #####....you may never start the guy but pick him up anyway so somebody else doesn't....this is a piggyback to the magazine drafter comment....it is too easy these days for even lazy owners to have Matthew Berry tell them what to do every week...

take a look at schedules....granted we never know for sure how good defenses will be, but a quick look at the mess in the NFC west last year should have been easy to see....so players from teams like KC might have been a good idea.....this year not so much with NE/Pitt/GB on the schedule....I don't buy into this fully but it is something to take a look at ....KC players benefited from that schedule....different road this year...

what WR1's are on Revis island during your playoff weeks...?...again not a deal breaker cause they will help get you there....but something you might want to prepare for...(I'll tell ya....Bowe, DeSean, Nicks)

 
Last year I went into Week 13 and the playoffs with three top 5 QB's...Rogers, Orton and Cassell (top 5 in the last couple months). Next year I'll need four, as Rogers got a concussion, Orton lost his job and Cassell got an appendectomy all within two weeks of each other.

 
I will add that it's a good idea to spend some time in the SP and specifically look for the threads where there are point/counterpoints of why player x is ready to break out and why. Don't follow groupthink, but synthesize fact from opinion and be willing to swim against the current and follow your convictions. You'll end up with a team you drafted rather than a loose version of an ADP team for your slot. Don't be afraid to reach if there is someone you have to have. It sucks more to see the pick go right before you, than to say I waited and got a steal. That just tells you that you weren't really that high on that player to begin with.

Not trying to plug the site, but take your mock list and compare it and nudge some players either way, after looking at Dodd's top 100. If something doesn't seem right, do a search of the player in question and research what the SP is saying. You may find that you were about to miss the boat. There are a lot of well researched, well informed posters here.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top