andre johnson (1 Viewer)

[teamroc]

At what point, when healthy, does someone have to actually put up top 3-5 numbers to live up to his "potential"?

He was the #3 wr on a ppg basis last season. When he was hurt I imagine most owners filled his spot with an adequate replacement. When he was in he was a stud...and we're not talking a one game fluke - he played 9 games and was behind only Randy Moss and TO.

He's never finished a top 15 WR in his career. That's not up for debate. You can bring up PPG, home/away splits, September vs December. Go nuts. Doesn't change the fact he's NEVER lived up to his ADP. Never. Ever. Not once.So why does he keep getting drafted that high? He's without question overrated. EVERY single year, you'd be better off drafting the WR ranked right behind him rather then AJ. He's never lived up to the position he gets pimped for. Yes there are lots of excuses. Lots of other WRs get it done. So why not draft those WRs? But after 5 years? People fall in love with PPG/flashes/talent. It's the old Mcnabb theory, oh he'll be great weeks 1-10, then get hurt. But man you're into the playoffs! Enjoy that! Just draft a good backup. Ehhh. Or just avoid the whole situation.AJ is a nice WR. He's got talent. But in terms of FF, he's a disappointed every single year. He's always WR8-12, and never ends up WR8-12. As someone else said, CJ is a locked for top 10 WR. AJ, in 5 years, hasn't done that ONCE.No other player in the league, gets hype as a top 10 in his position, yet has never done it for 5 years. Name a QB/TE/RB/WR who’s never been in the top 10 (in 5 years) yet is projected for the top 10. Doesn’t exist. First it’s the QB. Then it’s the coach. Then it’s injuries. Sorry, you’re not reliable. He’s 27. It’s his 6th year. Will he finally crack the top 10? It’s such a joke. As MoP would say, what’s his FF regular season vs FF playoff splits? Week 1-13 AJ was WR 109. Sweet! What a great year!A good rule of thumb is, never draft a guy in a spot he’s never lived up to. And once you hit the 5 year mark, and you’re drafting him at an ADP he’s never lived up to, you’re making a mistake. Sorry, you just are. Don’t draft a WR in the top 10 if he’s never been in the top 10. Sorry he hasn’t, and I wouldn’t draft him there. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me since 2002, uhhh, shame on, me, it, you, them.

 

[teamroc]

The 2nd half of last season...who was leaps and bounds better than AJ not named Randy Moss or TO? I can think of very few WR I would prefer.

According to you, FF regular season vs FF playoff splits are huge. And AJ BOMBED last years FF regular season. WR100+? Schweeet. Go start a thread "Did AJ help or hurt your team making the playoffs" thread. You seem to be all down on Portis, who actually played all FF regular season, but you're madly in love with AJ who was hurt most of the year? At least keep the same illogical stance for a week.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

AJ seemed to perform pretty well when he had a good QB getting him the ball. But this knee thing is bad news. It's a lingering issue. I just worry that he'll be tentative now that it's a recurring thing.

 

[TheFanatic]

I used to draft the "sexy" players years ago like McGahee and Fred Taylor over the producers like Tiki Barber. I drafted Tiki finally in his final year and rode him to a title. I learned my lesson about taking producers and have been winning alot more since I starting avoiding the "Sexy, trendy" picks and take the guys who get the real numbers that count. It's a valuable lesson that I'm sure most everyone learns eventually, lucky for me there is always new blood in fantasy football who won't learn for a while as I pile up the trophies and cash. The great thing about FBG ranking a guy like Andre so high is he'll be taken so high in all my leagues...

What's sexy or trendy about a guy who has 163 receptions, 2,000 yds receiving, and 13 TDs in 25 games over the past 2 seasons? Find the number of WR who have better numbers or catches on a per game basis...the list is very short I promise you. AJ is only 26, this isn't a guy pushing 30.

You're not following my point at all. The point you just made is clear though and goes to proving my point, the guy has 2000 yards and 13 TDS in two years. So he's good for 1000/6 a year, I'll pass.

C'mon dude, you're really gonna skew the numbers that way. Good luck in the fall.

He's got a point about this production. Sure it looks like pretty good numbers but not for where this guy is going in drafts....I agree with the guy earlier, nobody has surgery in late May. This guy is getting a big red flag from me. I only have one draft this summer, contract dynasty initial startup draft similar to my main league (not HAL I), and will shy away from him just because I know someone will be grabbing him with a higher pick that I am willing to pay. If the run starts, give me Wayne, Colston, Housh, or Chad before this guy.

 

[Chachi]

AJ seemed to perform pretty well when he had a good QB getting him the ball. But this knee thing is bad news. It's a lingering issue. I just worry that he'll be tentative now that it's a recurring thing.

A tentative WR, the recipe for success.

 

[fourd]

At what point, when healthy, does someone have to actually put up top 3-5 numbers to live up to his "potential"?

He was the #3 wr on a ppg basis last season. When he was hurt I imagine most owners filled his spot with an adequate replacement. When he was in he was a stud...and we're not talking a one game fluke - he played 9 games and was behind only Randy Moss and TO.

Where was he in points for the year? And if he was that easily replaced how much of a stud is he? Even in a ppr scoring format he couldn't crack the top 10 while leading the league with 103 receptions.

 

[coolnerd]

I used to draft the "sexy" players years ago like McGahee and Fred Taylor over the producers like Tiki Barber. I drafted Tiki finally in his final year and rode him to a title. I learned my lesson about taking producers and have been winning alot more since I starting avoiding the "Sexy, trendy" picks and take the guys who get the real numbers that count. It's a valuable lesson that I'm sure most everyone learns eventually, lucky for me there is always new blood in fantasy football who won't learn for a while as I pile up the trophies and cash. The great thing about FBG ranking a guy like Andre so high is he'll be taken so high in all my leagues...

What's sexy or trendy about a guy who has 163 receptions, 2,000 yds receiving, and 13 TDs in 25 games over the past 2 seasons? Find the number of WR who have better numbers or catches on a per game basis...the list is very short I promise you. AJ is only 26, this isn't a guy pushing 30.

You're not following my point at all. The point you just made is clear though and goes to proving my point, the guy has 2000 yards and 13 TDS in two years. So he's good for 1000/6 a year, I'll pass.

C'mon dude, you're really gonna skew the numbers that way. Good luck in the fall.

He's got a point about this production. Sure it looks like pretty good numbers but not for where this guy is going in drafts....I agree with the guy earlier, nobody has surgery in late May. This guy is getting a big red flag from me. I only have one draft this summer, contract dynasty initial startup draft similar to my main league (not HAL I), and will shy away from him just because I know someone will be grabbing him with a higher pick that I am willing to pay. If the run starts, give me Wayne, Colston, Housh, or Chad before this guy.

That's the key phrase. I am a Texans homer and play more leagues than should I admit, but don't have Andre because i would either have draft him as a clear top 5 WR in a dynasty or pay the equivalent in trade. His overall, bottomline does not merit a no-doubt about it top investment. I would love to have him on my squad, but his cost versus overall production has not matched up to date.

 

[fourd]

Game Logs for 2007...Wk 1: 7/142/TDWk 2: 7/120/2 TDs...he was injured in this gameWk 11: 6/120/TDWk 12: 3/37Wk 13: 9/116/TDWk 14: 9/82/TDWk 15: 6/86/TDWk 16: 7/74/TDWk 17: 6/74He posted 60/850/8 TD in basically a half a year and coming back from injury...He easily would have posted 100 receptions, about 1,400+ yds, and 12+ TDs..those are as good if not better than T.Owens. This guy is top3-5 as long as he is healthy...he had 100+ catches in 2006 with David Carr throwing it and I think we all agree that Schaub(injury problems too) is a huge upgrade at QB. AJ is the goods and I'm glad he can do this and get ready for camp in August but I don't think he needs to do much in preseason.

At what point, when healthy, does someone have to actually put up top 3-5 numbers to live up to his "potential"?

The 2nd half of last season...who was leaps and bounds better than AJ not named Randy Moss or TO? I can think of very few WR I would prefer.

Wouldn't you want a top 3-5 guy to produce that way for the entire season? Especially at the price you have to pay for him?

 

[ATC1]

http://www.houstontexans.com/news/Story.asp?story_id=4326

“I feel good right now,” he said. “The knee didn’t swell up or anything. It has a little bit of swelling, but nothing major. If you looked at my knee, you wouldn’t really even be able to tell anything is wrong with it. Other than that, I am feeling fine, just rehabbing every day, doing what I need to do to get back on the field.”

Did it swell up, or not? Sounds like it did.

Sounds like he was conditioned to say it didn't swell up, only to fold. Unfortunately for him, he folded the very next sentence.

He had a compression sleeve on before he said it didn't swell. You don't wear a compression sleeve if there is no swelling.If he was having problems towards the tail end of the season like he said, why he didn't get the clean out right after camp. MRI should have been done at the end of the season to see if playing through the season cause some wear and tear of the articular cartliage because he was still having pain.

 

[AnonymousBob]

EVERY single year, you'd be better off drafting the WR ranked right behind him rather then AJ.

Lee EvansDonald DriverRandy MossPlaxico BurressHines WardCalvin JohnsonReggie BrownDeion BranchLavernues ColesSantana MossThose were the guys ranked behind him in 2007.Weeks 1-13 he was #109? Gee, that's terrible. That's especially terrible if you actually played him during those seven weeks when he didn't even play! Of course, we all know you'd actually plug SOMEBODY else into that spot during his absence. Weeks 1-13 when he did play he did the following:Week 1 - 142 yards 1 tdWeek 2 - 120 yards 2 td'sWeeks 3 - 10 DNPWeek 11 - 120 yards 1 tdWeek 12 - 37 yards 0 tdWeek 13 - 116 yards 1 tdIn fact, in weeks 1-16 he scored less than 10 points once (of course, out of games played).Your Chad Johnson played the entire season and in weeks 1-16 he had ten games with fewer than ten points.

 

[Tau837]

EVERY single year, you'd be better off drafting the WR ranked right behind him rather then AJ.

Lee EvansDonald DriverRandy MossPlaxico BurressHines WardCalvin JohnsonReggie BrownDeion BranchLavernues ColesSantana MossThose were the guys ranked behind him in 2007.Weeks 1-13 he was #109? Gee, that's terrible. That's especially terrible if you actually played him during those seven weeks when he didn't even play! Of course, we all know you'd actually plug SOMEBODY else into that spot during his absence. Weeks 1-13 when he did play he did the following:Week 1 - 142 yards 1 tdWeek 2 - 120 yards 2 td'sWeeks 3 - 10 DNPWeek 11 - 120 yards 1 tdWeek 12 - 37 yards 0 tdWeek 13 - 116 yards 1 tdIn fact, in weeks 1-16 he scored less than 10 points once (of course, out of games played).Your Chad Johnson played the entire season and in weeks 1-16 he had ten games with fewer than ten points.

Just picking up a player like Randel El or Jurevicius would have provided 38-40 fantasy points over weeks 3-10 (FBG scoring, not PPR). Adding that to AJ's 133 fantasy points (FBG scoring, not PPR) would have combined to finish around WR10-11 last season, with 14.2, 14.6, and 13.4 fantasy points from AJ in weeks 14-16, respectively. Given that last season amounted to a downside scenario for someone who drafted AJ, that's some pretty damn good downside IMO.Personally, I am pretty confident that I can make the playoffs year in, year out. So a large part of my season is spent trying to trade off depth for a better lineup, in hopes that I can dominate the playoffs when I get there. I'd be fine drafting AJ or any other stud player and having them miss a few games, taking my chances on making the playoffs anyway. Sure, if the games missed by your best players are at playoff time, you are screwed, but that's a given.I think it is important to monitor the knee situation, but I wouldn't hesitate to draft him somewhere in the top 10 this year if he seems to be healthy. FBG has him ranked 7th for redraft non PPR at the moment. Seems perfectly reasonable.

 

[gheemony]

1. I think folks aren't giving enough attention to the difference between Schaub/Rosenfels (with Kubiak at the helm) and Carr (with Chris Palmer). Andre was getting lots of targets and he was getting long TD passes. A consistent producer with game breaking ability.

2. The real issue should be his knee injury. I wish we had more info. If he's an injury risk, then I don't think he merits be top 5. Or top 10. But before you drop him to #20, compare him with Plax. Plax was a nightmare to owners last year when he wouldn't practice, would be a GTD, and then would put up a 1 catch game. AJ produced when he was healthy.

If I am convinced AJ's injury is not serious, he's in my top 10. Otherwise, he's 10-15.

 

[Chachi]

Your Chad Johnson played the entire season and in weeks 1-16 he had ten games with fewer than ten points.

Chad Johnson averages 1400/8. Andre averages 700/4Come on now, You go ahead and take Andre, I'll take Chad. You can whine in season about his injuries and how great he "could be". I'll take the money and run.

 

[Chachi]

1 WR Reggie Wayne, IND 1 1 2 3 1 2 1.7 1.5 1.5

2 WR Randy Moss, NE 3 3 1 1 3 1 2.0 2.0 2.0

3 WR Braylon Edwards, CLE 2 2 3 4 6 3 3.3 3.0 3.0

4 WR Andre Johnson, HOU 5 4 6 6 4 5 5.0 5.0 5.0

4 WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI 9 6 4 5 2 4 5.0 4.5 4.8

6 WR Marques Colston, NO 4 8 7 8 5 8 6.7 7.5 7.0

7 WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN 10 7 12 2 11 7 8.2 8.5 8.8

8 WR Steve Smith, CAR 13 5 5 7 8 12 8.3 7.5 8.0

9 WR Chad Johnson, CIN 7 10 15 11 7 9 9.8 9.5 9.3

10 WR Brandon Marshall, DEN 6 14 13 18 12 6 11.5 12.5 11.3

11 WR Anquan Boldin, ARI 16 12 8 12 9 14 11.8 12.0 11.8

12 WR Calvin Johnson, DET 18 15 9 14 14 13 13.8 14.0 14.0

13 WR Terrell Owens, DAL 8 9 19 9 21 18 14.0 13.5 13.8

14 WR Roy Williams, DET 23 19 14 10 10 11 14.5 12.5 13.5

15 WR Plaxico Burress, NYG 19 11 18 15 15 10 14.7 15.0 14.8

16 WR Dwayne Bowe, KC 11 18 10 24 17 17 16.2 17.0 15.8

17 WR Greg Jennings, GB 14 21 11 17 16 20 16.5 16.5 16.8

18 WR Santonio Holmes, PIT 20 13 17 13 18 19 16.7 17.5 16.8

19 WR Torry Holt, STL 17 16 20 16 19 16 17.3 16.5 17.0

20 WR Lee Evans, BUF 21 20 16 19 30 15 20.2 19.5 19.0

Dynasty ranking here, I trust the bolded players more than AJ and AJ is 4th?

 

[AnonymousBob]

I would put Fitzgerald above AJ but other than that I think it's fair game. AJ is indeed overrated but lots of players are. At least when Andre plays he's a beast. What's CJ's excuse? Steve Smith? Housh had by far a career year last season, Roy Williams is a guy that can't stay healthy and you like him more than AJ? Marshall and Holmes???

It's pretty clear we'll have to agree to disagree.

 

[Chachi]

I would put Fitzgerald above AJ but other than that I think it's fair game. AJ is indeed overrated but lots of players are. At least when Andre plays he's a beast. What's CJ's excuse? Steve Smith? Housh had by far a career year last season, Roy Williams is a guy that can't stay healthy and you like him more than AJ? Marshall and Holmes??? It's pretty clear we'll have to agree to disagree.

Actually, I didn't mean to bold Roy Williams.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

At what point, when healthy, does someone have to actually put up top 3-5 numbers to live up to his "potential"?

He was the #3 wr on a ppg basis last season. When he was hurt I imagine most owners filled his spot with an adequate replacement. When he was in he was a stud...and we're not talking a one game fluke - he played 9 games and was behind only Randy Moss and TO.

He's never finished a top 15 WR in his career. That's not up for debate. You can bring up PPG, home/away splits, September vs December. Go nuts. Doesn't change the fact he's NEVER lived up to his ADP. Never. Ever. Not once.So why does he keep getting drafted that high? He's without question overrated. EVERY single year, you'd be better off drafting the WR ranked right behind him rather then AJ. He's never lived up to the position he gets pimped for. Yes there are lots of excuses. Lots of other WRs get it done. So why not draft those WRs? But after 5 years? People fall in love with PPG/flashes/talent. It's the old Mcnabb theory, oh he'll be great weeks 1-10, then get hurt. But man you're into the playoffs! Enjoy that! Just draft a good backup. Ehhh. Or just avoid the whole situation.AJ is a nice WR. He's got talent. But in terms of FF, he's a disappointed every single year. He's always WR8-12, and never ends up WR8-12. As someone else said, CJ is a locked for top 10 WR. AJ, in 5 years, hasn't done that ONCE.No other player in the league, gets hype as a top 10 in his position, yet has never done it for 5 years. Name a QB/TE/RB/WR who’s never been in the top 10 (in 5 years) yet is projected for the top 10. Doesn’t exist. First it’s the QB. Then it’s the coach. Then it’s injuries. Sorry, you’re not reliable. He’s 27. It’s his 6th year. Will he finally crack the top 10? It’s such a joke. As MoP would say, what’s his FF regular season vs FF playoff splits? Week 1-13 AJ was WR 109. Sweet! What a great year!A good rule of thumb is, never draft a guy in a spot he’s never lived up to. And once you hit the 5 year mark, and you’re drafting him at an ADP he’s never lived up to, you’re making a mistake. Sorry, you just are. Don’t draft a WR in the top 10 if he’s never been in the top 10. Sorry he hasn’t, and I wouldn’t draft him there. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me since 2002, uhhh, shame on, me, it, you, them.

Here we go...on a week by week basis...wk 1: 5thwk 2: 4thwk3-10...injured, hurt his owners at that point, no doubt. wk 11: 6thwk 13: 6thwk 14: 10thwk 15: 6thwk 16: 12thYou won't find many WR that have as many top10 finishes when healthy as you will last season with Andre Johnson...the guy was money except for the injury. The year before he caught over 100 balls...to act like this guy is overrated is a terribly skewed view. Only people that have an axe to grind with im would feel that way. I owned him in many leagues last year and while it was very disappointing to watch him leave for 8 weeks, he was still money when he was on the field. I think with AJ, you simply want to make sure you have 1 more good solid starter depending on your roster sets...meaning if you start 3, you might want to make sure yo have 4 really strong WR. SOme will say why bother, but AJ could easily be top3-5 this upcoming season. He isn't going to miss the preseaosn and even if he did, I doubt he would need the practice. Look at his 1st game back after the injury last year...he rocked.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The 2nd half of last season...who was leaps and bounds better than AJ not named Randy Moss or TO? I can think of very few WR I would prefer.

According to you, FF regular season vs FF playoff splits are huge. And AJ BOMBED last years FF regular season. WR100+? Schweeet. Go start a thread "Did AJ help or hurt your team making the playoffs" thread. You seem to be all down on Portis, who actually played all FF regular season, but you're madly in love with AJ who was hurt most of the year? At least keep the same illogical stance for a week.

AJ was huge when he was on the filed...I gave Portis' game by game, week by week spots and he barely cracked the top 10 last year except for 4 weeks...only had 1 blowout game and that was agianst the Jets in week 9 where he rushed for 190 yds and a TD. I even predicted that would be his biggest game in my weekly RB thread, look it up if you have any doubts. AJ had much more impact when he was on the field for his owners than Portis did...but now we are hijacking the thread and I think it would be best ot keep it on topic.

 

[AllVolUT]

At what point, when healthy, does someone have to actually put up top 3-5 numbers to live up to his "potential"?

He was the #3 wr on a ppg basis last season. When he was hurt I imagine most owners filled his spot with an adequate replacement. When he was in he was a stud...and we're not talking a one game fluke - he played 9 games and was behind only Randy Moss and TO.

He's never finished a top 15 WR in his career. That's not up for debate. You can bring up PPG, home/away splits, September vs December. Go nuts. Doesn't change the fact he's NEVER lived up to his ADP. Never. Ever. Not once.

So why does he keep getting drafted that high? He's without question overrated. EVERY single year, you'd be better off drafting the WR ranked right behind him rather then AJ. He's never lived up to the position he gets pimped for.

Yes there are lots of excuses. Lots of other WRs get it done. So why not draft those WRs? But after 5 years? People fall in love with PPG/flashes/talent. It's the old Mcnabb theory, oh he'll be great weeks 1-10, then get hurt. But man you're into the playoffs! Enjoy that! Just draft a good backup. Ehhh. Or just avoid the whole situation.

AJ is a nice WR. He's got talent. But in terms of FF, he's a disappointed every single year. He's always WR8-12, and never ends up WR8-12. As someone else said, CJ is a locked for top 10 WR. AJ, in 5 years, hasn't done that ONCE.

No other player in the league, gets hype as a top 10 in his position, yet has never done it for 5 years. Name a QB/TE/RB/WR who’s never been in the top 10 (in 5 years) yet is projected for the top 10. Doesn’t exist. First it’s the QB. Then it’s the coach. Then it’s injuries.

Sorry, you’re not reliable. He’s 27. It’s his 6th year. Will he finally crack the top 10? It’s such a joke. As MoP would say, what’s his FF regular season vs FF playoff splits? Week 1-13 AJ was WR 109. Sweet! What a great year!

A good rule of thumb is, never draft a guy in a spot he’s never lived up to. And once you hit the 5 year mark, and you’re drafting him at an ADP he’s never lived up to, you’re making a mistake. Sorry, you just are. Don’t draft a WR in the top 10 if he’s never been in the top 10. Sorry he hasn’t, and I wouldn’t draft him there.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me since 2002, uhhh, shame on, me, it, you, them.

I can understand you argument, however his 2003-2006 situation doesn't play a huge role in my ranking him in 2008. David Carr is just that bad. In those four seasons, the Houston Texans passing game finished 29th, 18th, 30th, and 27th respectively. During those years, AJ managed to net two 1100+ yd seasons and accounted for 37.94% of the passing offense in the games that he played in. That being said, I can still understand what you're saying. I just feel like his ceiling far outweighs his floor. Top 4 in dynasty? Perhaps....but Top 10? Definitely, IMO..i'd put him somewhere between WR4-WR6.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Game Logs for 2007...Wk 1: 7/142/TDWk 2: 7/120/2 TDs...he was injured in this gameWk 11: 6/120/TDWk 12: 3/37Wk 13: 9/116/TDWk 14: 9/82/TDWk 15: 6/86/TDWk 16: 7/74/TDWk 17: 6/74He posted 60/850/8 TD in basically a half a year and coming back from injury...He easily would have posted 100 receptions, about 1,400+ yds, and 12+ TDs..those are as good if not better than T.Owens. This guy is top3-5 as long as he is healthy...he had 100+ catches in 2006 with David Carr throwing it and I think we all agree that Schaub(injury problems too) is a huge upgrade at QB. AJ is the goods and I'm glad he can do this and get ready for camp in August but I don't think he needs to do much in preseason.

At what point, when healthy, does someone have to actually put up top 3-5 numbers to live up to his "potential"?

The 2nd half of last season...who was leaps and bounds better than AJ not named Randy Moss or TO? I can think of very few WR I would prefer.

Wouldn't you want a top 3-5 guy to produce that way for the entire season? Especially at the price you have to pay for him?

Let's be clear...and I understand people got burned by AJ last season...I'm one of them. Howevr it doesn't take away that when on the filed this guy is top3-5...look at his game logs, they are on pace with T.Owens...If people want to take 4-8 games off his projections for this coming season, go ahead. But until I see that he is going to not be able to perform come week 1, you have to look at this guy as one of the 1st 5-8 WR off the board. I can understand and would also likely take Reggie Wayne, Colston, TO, Moss of course, all those guys should come off but after that it really is up for debate. If folks are more comfortable with Housh, Chad, Steve SMith...no problem, I think AJ will make a strong WR2 on most rosters with the ability to post WR1 numbers every week he plays. SOmeone is going ot come out of the redrafts with possibly a TO/AJ combo or Moss/AJ...that's just scary.

 

[Chachi]

Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Santana Moss, Wes Welker, Darrell Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Roy Williams, Lee Evans, Donald Driver, Terry Glenn and Hines Ward just to name a few have had better fantasy seasons than AJ's BEST fantasy year. Go ahead and take him top 3-5, just don't whine cause nobody wants to hear it.

 

[AllVolUT]

Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Santana Moss, Wes Welker, Darrell Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Roy Williams, Lee Evans, Donald Driver, Terry Glenn and Hines Ward just to name a few have had better fantasy seasons than AJ's BEST fantasy year. Go ahead and take him top 3-5, just don't whine cause nobody wants to hear it.

We understand thats how you feel, as you mentioned it over and over. Why don't you try reading some of the AJ supporters posts in the thread - I think some of them do a good job of explaining some things.What does the above post mean as it relates to AJ's season this year?

 

[Chachi]

What does the above post mean as it relates to AJ's season this year?

It means he won't produce AGAIN. I am not sure what the excuse this time is gonna be, either "He was hurt", "He was never 100% with the knees", "Schaub was hurt" "Schaub isn't very good" "Houston was always ahead so it limited him" "Houston was always behind so he was doubled"... It all boils down to "Waaaaah, Waaaaah, Waaaah "For 2009, I call that it will be his year

For 2010, I call that it will be his year

On and on......

 

[AllVolUT]

What does the above post mean as it relates to AJ's season this year?

It means he won't produce AGAIN. I am not sure what the excuse this time is gonna be, either "He was hurt", "He was never 100% with the knees", "Schaub was hurt" "Schaub isn't very good" "Houston was always ahead so it limited him" "Houston was always behind so he was doubled"... It all boils down to "Waaaaah, Waaaaah, Waaaah "For 2009, I call that it will be his year

For 2010, I call that it will be his year

On and on......

So just to make this clear, your using his previous seasons (w/ David Carr) as his indicator of future production....without taking into account the fact that he has a complete new offense (QB and coach especially) and much better team surrounding him?

 

[Chachi]

What does the above post mean as it relates to AJ's season this year?

It means he won't produce AGAIN. I am not sure what the excuse this time is gonna be, either "He was hurt", "He was never 100% with the knees", "Schaub was hurt" "Schaub isn't very good" "Houston was always ahead so it limited him" "Houston was always behind so he was doubled"... It all boils down to "Waaaaah, Waaaaah, Waaaah "For 2009, I call that it will be his year

For 2010, I call that it will be his year

On and on......

So just to make this clear, your using his previous seasons (w/ David Carr) as his indicator of future production....without taking into account the fact that he has a complete new offense (QB and coach especially) and much better team surrounding him?

I guess you got cotton balls in your ears. I am saying he is not deserving of the #4 overall dynasty WR. How on earth did you miss that?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Chachi, just out of curiosity, but do you play solely in total points leagues rather than head to head leagues?

I ask because unless you do, you seem to be oversimplifying fantasy football to a fault, especially given your overuse of Chad Johnson as the counter argument to Andre Johnson.

I was right there with you on Andre Johnson prior to this past season, as he was constantly rated highly under the assumption that his talent alone would carry him through a situation with David Carr that was remaining unchanged, and I thought he was perennially overrated. However, last season was not a bust for Andre Johnson. Sure, he got hurt, it happens in fantasy football, but we finally got to see what he can do with a real QB. Just look at what David Carr did to Steve Smith.

Chad Johnson on the other hand, is a horrible example to use here if you play in head to head leagues. The guy has spent the last two seasons as a fantasy football cancer for his owners in spite of that big end of the year number that you seem unable to remove your focus from. Even given the knowledge of what each would do last year, I would take AJ's 850/8 over Chad's 1400/8 any day of the week because I'd rather have a guy who was a monster some week's and injured other weeks while I find fill-ins than have a guy who was a monster some weeks and was a complete dud that cost me games by being in my starting lineup other weeks.

Ever wonder why Chad Johnson dropped from the consensus #1 FF WR to barely a top 10 FF WR the last two years even though his year-end numbers are the same? Here's a start.

In the last 2 years, 35% of his production has come in 4 out of those 32 games. That doesn't leave much production for the other 28.

In the last 2 years, he has scored touchdowns in only 8 or 32 games.

In the last 2 years, he has scored fewer than ten fantasy points in TWENTY of his 32 games.

In each of the last 2 years individually, after removing each WRs 2 biggest games (not just removing Chad's 2 biggest and then comparing him to everyone else, but rather removing EVERYONE's 2 biggest) he finished outside the top 30 WR. All those guys you mentioned like Djax, Glenn, etc outscored Chad in fewer games (so waaaaaayyyy outscored him in PPG) in this scenario.

Yes yes, I know I know about removing games. But the fact of the matter remains that in each of the last two seasons Chad was a monster for 2 games and then was barely worth owning as a WR3 the rest of the way.

There is far more to fantasy football that one nice round number at the end of the year. Unless you play in a total points league, of course.

 

[joffer]

Chad Johnson on the other hand, is a horrible example to use here if you play in head to head leagues. The guy has spent the last two seasons as a fantasy football cancer for his owners in spite of that big end of the year number that you seem unable to remove your focus from. Even given the knowledge of what each would do last year, I would take AJ's 850/8 over Chad's 1400/8 any day of the week because I'd rather have a guy who was a monster some week's and injured other weeks while I find fill-ins than have a guy who was a monster some weeks and was a complete dud that cost me games by being in my starting lineup other weeks.

ppg is much more important in H2H

 

[Patoons]

Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Santana Moss, Wes Welker, Darrell Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Roy Williams, Lee Evans, Donald Driver, Terry Glenn and Hines Ward just to name a few have had better fantasy seasons than AJ's BEST fantasy year. Go ahead and take him top 3-5, just don't whine cause nobody wants to hear it.

This of course would depend on your point scoring system. PPR, he was top 10 two years ago.It appears it is every other year with AJ as far as health goes (thus far anyway).

 

[Tanner9919]

as far as ADP goes, over the past 4 seasons, Derrick Mason's numbers are nearly identical to those of AJ, and he comes at a MUCH lower cost. Mason gives you 6-75 seemingly every single week..Give me the consistency over the roller coaster ride known as AJ, any day of the week.

only once has Johnson has scored more than 5 tds in a single season..

:(

 

[Tau837]

as far as ADP goes, over the past 4 seasons, Derrick Mason's numbers are nearly identical to those of AJ, and he comes at a MUCH lower cost. Mason gives you 6-75 seemingly every single week..Give me the consistency over the roller coaster ride known as AJ, any day of the week.

only once has Johnson has scored more than 5 tds in a single season..

XMason's per game averages in his 3 years in Baltimore: 5.4/60.6/0.2

Johnson's per game averages in his last 3 years: 5.9/70.7/0.4

However, that ignores the fact that in 2 of those years, Johnson was handicapped with Carr, and his one season with better QB play resulted in 6.7/94.6/0.9... and the one instance you cited with more than 5 TDs.

And going forward, Johnson is 7 1/2 years younger than Mason.

This comparison is laughable.

 

[fourd]

Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Santana Moss, Wes Welker, Darrell Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Roy Williams, Lee Evans, Donald Driver, Terry Glenn and Hines Ward just to name a few have had better fantasy seasons than AJ's BEST fantasy year. Go ahead and take him top 3-5, just don't whine cause nobody wants to hear it.

This of course would depend on your point scoring system. PPR, he was top 10 two years ago.It appears it is every other year with AJ as far as health goes (thus far anyway).

He was top 10 only if you include 11 players in the top 10.

 

[teamroc]

as far as ADP goes, over the past 4 seasons, Derrick Mason's numbers are nearly identical to those of AJ, and he comes at a MUCH lower cost. Mason gives you 6-75 seemingly every single week..Give me the consistency over the roller coaster ride known as AJ, any day of the week.

only once has Johnson has scored more than 5 tds in a single season..

XMason's per game averages in his 3 years in Baltimore: 5.4/60.6/0.2

Johnson's per game averages in his last 3 years: 5.9/70.7/0.4

However, that ignores the fact that in 2 of those years, Johnson was handicapped with Carr, and his one season with better QB play resulted in 6.7/94.6/0.9... and the one instance you cited with more than 5 TDs.

And going forward, Johnson is 7 1/2 years younger than Mason.

This comparison is laughable.

Funny those numbers look fairly close.Does the X mean he's hit the mark? Buried treasure? I'm lost.

 

[Tau837]

as far as ADP goes, over the past 4 seasons, Derrick Mason's numbers are nearly identical to those of AJ, and he comes at a MUCH lower cost. Mason gives you 6-75 seemingly every single week..Give me the consistency over the roller coaster ride known as AJ, any day of the week.

only once has Johnson has scored more than 5 tds in a single season..

XMason's per game averages in his 3 years in Baltimore: 5.4/60.6/0.2

Johnson's per game averages in his last 3 years: 5.9/70.7/0.4

However, that ignores the fact that in 2 of those years, Johnson was handicapped with Carr, and his one season with better QB play resulted in 6.7/94.6/0.9... and the one instance you cited with more than 5 TDs.

And going forward, Johnson is 7 1/2 years younger than Mason.

This comparison is laughable.

Funny those numbers look fairly close.Does the X mean he's hit the mark? Buried treasure? I'm lost.

The X means he missed the mark, obviously. Mason has not been consistently at 6/75 seemingly every week, nor has his performance over the past 3 years been particularly close to AJ's. Per game, AJ has averaged 9.5 ppg, compared to Mason's 7.3 ppg in non PPR leagues; in PPR leagues, the gap widens slightly.

 

[teamroc]

The X means he missed the mark, obviously. Mason has not been consistently at 6/75 seemingly every week, nor has his performance over the past 3 years been particularly close to AJ's. Per game, AJ has averaged 9.5 ppg, compared to Mason's 7.3 ppg in non PPR leagues; in PPR leagues, the gap widens slightly.

aj 361 ptsmason 351 ptsover the last 3 years. and his performance isn't close over the last 3 years?Okay so because AJ gets hurt a lot, his PPG is better, that's a plus?And Mason has been more or less junk the last 3 years.final WR rankaj 18, 22, 47mason 20, 24, 48If we took away the names, and I told you player A would be drafted as a top 5 WR, and player B would be drafted WR35. Wouldn't you be horribly appalled? AJ has NEVER lived up to his ADP. In 5 years. Never. Ever. Not once. Always under performs his ADP. Where's the value?Listen is Charles Rogers found a team, put his life together, stayed healthy, he's be great too. That's a lot of IFs. AJ also has a lot of IFs. AJ needs to stay healthy, Texans need to move the ball, and AJ needs to have a career year. Gee, okay.When a guy needs a CAREER year to justify his draft spot, you're reaching. Sorry, you just are. Go nuts trying to project career years and catch lightning in a bottle. People have been doing it with AJ for 5 years, and always come up empty (non-ppr). As for PPR, he had a nice year. 5 tds? ehhhh. Probably out performed his adp that year, but then tanked last year. The guy is a fine WR. But in FF, he's been overrated for years. There's no value in drafting AJ. Even less this year. He's a classic disappointment. Try sniffing top 10 WR at least once in 5 years before you're drafted as a top 10 WR. Is that too much to ask?PPG is cute. It’s been the McNabb defense for years. PPG means you miss games. Means you’re always hurt. Sorry, those guys don’t win you championships. They just don’t. And it would be one thing if AJ was underrated, then you can work the PPG argument. But he’s ranked WR5 in dynasty. Despite the fact all the wrs around him, have KILLED him over the last few years. Wayne has destroyed AJ the last 3 years. It’s laughable to even compare them. One is a world beater; the other gets drafted like he’s a world beater.

 

[joffer]

PPG is cute. It’s been the McNabb defense for years. PPG means you miss games. Means you’re always hurt. Sorry, those guys don’t win you championships. They just don’t. And it would be one thing if AJ was underrated, then you can work the PPG argument. But he’s ranked WR5 in dynasty. Despite the fact all the wrs around him, have KILLED him over the last few years. Wayne has destroyed AJ the last 3 years. It’s laughable to even compare them. One is a world beater; the other gets drafted like he’s a world beater.

ppg is more than cute when playing H2H, when it ranks as WR2 over 9 games, it's boatloads more than cute.

 

[Tau837]

The X means he missed the mark, obviously. Mason has not been consistently at 6/75 seemingly every week, nor has his performance over the past 3 years been particularly close to AJ's. Per game, AJ has averaged 9.5 ppg, compared to Mason's 7.3 ppg in non PPR leagues; in PPR leagues, the gap widens slightly.

aj 361 ptsmason 351 ptsover the last 3 years. and his performance isn't close over the last 3 years?Okay so because AJ gets hurt a lot, his PPG is better, that's a plus?And Mason has been more or less junk the last 3 years.final WR rankaj 18, 22, 47mason 20, 24, 48If we took away the names, and I told you player A would be drafted as a top 5 WR, and player B would be drafted WR35. Wouldn't you be horribly appalled? AJ has NEVER lived up to his ADP. In 5 years. Never. Ever. Not once. Always under performs his ADP. Where's the value?Listen is Charles Rogers found a team, put his life together, stayed healthy, he's be great too. That's a lot of IFs. AJ also has a lot of IFs. AJ needs to stay healthy, Texans need to move the ball, and AJ needs to have a career year. Gee, okay.When a guy needs a CAREER year to justify his draft spot, you're reaching. Sorry, you just are. Go nuts trying to project career years and catch lightning in a bottle. People have been doing it with AJ for 5 years, and always come up empty (non-ppr). As for PPR, he had a nice year. 5 tds? ehhhh. Probably out performed his adp that year, but then tanked last year. The guy is a fine WR. But in FF, he's been overrated for years. There's no value in drafting AJ. Even less this year. He's a classic disappointment. Try sniffing top 10 WR at least once in 5 years before you're drafted as a top 10 WR. Is that too much to ask?PPG is cute. It’s been the McNabb defense for years. PPG means you miss games. Means you’re always hurt. Sorry, those guys don’t win you championships. They just don’t. And it would be one thing if AJ was underrated, then you can work the PPG argument. But he’s ranked WR5 in dynasty. Despite the fact all the wrs around him, have KILLED him over the last few years. Wayne has destroyed AJ the last 3 years. It’s laughable to even compare them. One is a world beater; the other gets drafted like he’s a world beater.

This is why PPG is relevant:

Just picking up a player like Randel El or Jurevicius would have provided 38-40 fantasy points over weeks 3-10 (FBG scoring, not PPR). Adding that to AJ's 133 fantasy points (FBG scoring, not PPR) would have combined to finish around WR10-11 last season, with 14.2, 14.6, and 13.4 fantasy points from AJ in weeks 14-16, respectively. Given that last season amounted to a downside scenario for someone who drafted AJ, that's some pretty damn good downside IMO.

That "downside" scenario blew Mason away last year.

 

[moderated]

The X means he missed the mark, obviously. Mason has not been consistently at 6/75 seemingly every week, nor has his performance over the past 3 years been particularly close to AJ's. Per game, AJ has averaged 9.5 ppg, compared to Mason's 7.3 ppg in non PPR leagues; in PPR leagues, the gap widens slightly.

aj 361 ptsmason 351 ptsover the last 3 years. and his performance isn't close over the last 3 years?Okay so because AJ gets hurt a lot, his PPG is better, that's a plus?And Mason has been more or less junk the last 3 years.final WR rankaj 18, 22, 47mason 20, 24, 48If we took away the names, and I told you player A would be drafted as a top 5 WR, and player B would be drafted WR35. Wouldn't you be horribly appalled? AJ has NEVER lived up to his ADP. In 5 years. Never. Ever. Not once. Always under performs his ADP. Where's the value?Listen is Charles Rogers found a team, put his life together, stayed healthy, he's be great too. That's a lot of IFs. AJ also has a lot of IFs. AJ needs to stay healthy, Texans need to move the ball, and AJ needs to have a career year. Gee, okay.When a guy needs a CAREER year to justify his draft spot, you're reaching. Sorry, you just are. Go nuts trying to project career years and catch lightning in a bottle. People have been doing it with AJ for 5 years, and always come up empty (non-ppr). As for PPR, he had a nice year. 5 tds? ehhhh. Probably out performed his adp that year, but then tanked last year. The guy is a fine WR. But in FF, he's been overrated for years. There's no value in drafting AJ. Even less this year. He's a classic disappointment. Try sniffing top 10 WR at least once in 5 years before you're drafted as a top 10 WR. Is that too much to ask?PPG is cute. It’s been the McNabb defense for years. PPG means you miss games. Means you’re always hurt. Sorry, those guys don’t win you championships. They just don’t. And it would be one thing if AJ was underrated, then you can work the PPG argument. But he’s ranked WR5 in dynasty. Despite the fact all the wrs around him, have KILLED him over the last few years. Wayne has destroyed AJ the last 3 years. It’s laughable to even compare them. One is a world beater; the other gets drafted like he’s a world beater.

This is why PPG is relevant:

Just picking up a player like Randel El or Jurevicius would have provided 38-40 fantasy points over weeks 3-10 (FBG scoring, not PPR). Adding that to AJ's 133 fantasy points (FBG scoring, not PPR) would have combined to finish around WR10-11 last season, with 14.2, 14.6, and 13.4 fantasy points from AJ in weeks 14-16, respectively. Given that last season amounted to a downside scenario for someone who drafted AJ, that's some pretty damn good downside IMO.

That "downside" scenario blew Mason away last year.

some people seem to think you get 0 points at the position when your starter gets injured. Last i checked 99.99999% of leagues allow a bench where you have these things called backup players.

 

[Yenrub]

The X means he missed the mark, obviously. Mason has not been consistently at 6/75 seemingly every week, nor has his performance over the past 3 years been particularly close to AJ's. Per game, AJ has averaged 9.5 ppg, compared to Mason's 7.3 ppg in non PPR leagues; in PPR leagues, the gap widens slightly.

aj 361 ptsmason 351 ptsover the last 3 years. and his performance isn't close over the last 3 years?Okay so because AJ gets hurt a lot, his PPG is better, that's a plus?And Mason has been more or less junk the last 3 years.final WR rankaj 18, 22, 47mason 20, 24, 48If we took away the names, and I told you player A would be drafted as a top 5 WR, and player B would be drafted WR35. Wouldn't you be horribly appalled? AJ has NEVER lived up to his ADP. In 5 years. Never. Ever. Not once. Always under performs his ADP. Where's the value?Listen is Charles Rogers found a team, put his life together, stayed healthy, he's be great too. That's a lot of IFs. AJ also has a lot of IFs. AJ needs to stay healthy, Texans need to move the ball, and AJ needs to have a career year. Gee, okay.When a guy needs a CAREER year to justify his draft spot, you're reaching. Sorry, you just are. Go nuts trying to project career years and catch lightning in a bottle. People have been doing it with AJ for 5 years, and always come up empty (non-ppr). As for PPR, he had a nice year. 5 tds? ehhhh. Probably out performed his adp that year, but then tanked last year. The guy is a fine WR. But in FF, he's been overrated for years. There's no value in drafting AJ. Even less this year. He's a classic disappointment. Try sniffing top 10 WR at least once in 5 years before you're drafted as a top 10 WR. Is that too much to ask?PPG is cute. It’s been the McNabb defense for years. PPG means you miss games. Means you’re always hurt. Sorry, those guys don’t win you championships. They just don’t. And it would be one thing if AJ was underrated, then you can work the PPG argument. But he’s ranked WR5 in dynasty. Despite the fact all the wrs around him, have KILLED him over the last few years. Wayne has destroyed AJ the last 3 years. It’s laughable to even compare them. One is a world beater; the other gets drafted like he’s a world beater.

Was he really being drafted all that high in the past?Not sure what his ADP has been like in other leagues but in my league I don’t think guys have reached too much for him in the past.2004 – 22nd WR drafted2005 – 12th WR 2006 – 19th WR2007 – 19th WR

 

[AB in DC]

PPG is cute. It’s been the McNabb defense for years. PPG means you missed games. Means you were always hurt. Sorry, those guys don’t win you championships when they happen to get hurt during playoff weeks. They just didn’t.

Fixed.Unless you think you can predict who's going to get injured in 2008, and when, your rant is meaningless.

 

[unckeyherb]

PPG is cute. It’s been the McNabb defense for years. PPG means you missed games. Means you were always hurt. Sorry, those guys don’t win you championships when they happen to get hurt during playoff weeks. They just didn’t.

Fixed.Unless you think you can predict who's going to get injured in 2008, and when, your rant is meaningless.

yeah, I pretty much agree with this. Predicting injuries is pointless, cause quite frankly, anyone that suits up on any given Sunday is an injury risk. If you determine that you can not predict injury, then you have to go with what you think the guy can do in 16 games. If I look at a guy like andre and see him average 95 yards and almost a TD a game, then I am going to rank him high. Do I think that 95 and a touch will happen every game? Of course not, but I don't think its crazy to figure a 20% drop from that over the course of the season. That would put him at around 1300 and 13. If you don't think that he is capable of that, well then we just won't agree. He is a physical beast in better situation then years past with a better QB. If he is hampered with his knee-scope when training camp starts, I would bump him down.Otherwise I see him as #5-10WR with 1-5 upside.

 

[Bri]

Listen is Charles Rogers found a team, put his life together, stayed healthy, he's be great too. That's a lot of IFs. AJ also has a lot of IFs. AJ needs to stay healthy, Texans need to move the ball, and AJ needs to have a career year. Gee, okay.When a guy needs a CAREER year to justify his draft spot, you're reaching. Sorry, you just are. Go nuts trying to project career years and catch lightning in a bottle. People have been doing it with AJ for 5 years, and always come up empty (non-ppr).

Andre led the NFL in receptions for the season in 2006. Why would he need a career year? The most isn't good enough?Most yards per game (by a WR)in 2007 at 94.6 but, you don't like PPG so...ignore that.Also, Chuck might play for the Vikes.His HS coach said he would, they denied the report, then had him in for a visit. Trying to make sense of that is so I'm just saying he might.