Andrew Luck: Suppl Draft hypothetical (1 Viewer)

[daveR]

This ain't going to happen -- it's just for fun.

All the OSU problems got me to thinking about the NFL supplemental draft. Let's say that Luck was in one coming up soon. Who would be interested & how would he be acquired?

 

[ConnSKINS26]

The Bills would pony up their 2012 1st and get him.

MAYBE the Broncos.

 

[RUSF18]

Despite Newton, despite Clausen, Carolina would win him by bidding their 1st.

edit: Thought preference went in order of the prior year's draft, forgot about the tiering system.

 

[Donnybrook]

This thread is not what I would call hypothetical. Illogical is a better choice of words. Luck made a wise decision to stay in school under the circumstances.

 

[jurb26]

This ain't going to happen -- it's just for fun.All the OSU problems got me to thinking about the NFL supplemental draft. Let's say that Luck was in one coming up soon. Who would be interested & how would he be acquired?

You seem to have a to part question so I'll answer as such."Who would be interested?" Every team in the league would be interested. Luck is as highly rated a QB prospect as there has been in several years, according to most sources. He is almost uniformly regarded as a "franchise" caliber QB prospect, therefore every team in the NFL would have interest in him. That doesn't mean every team would have a realistic opportunity or desire to pony up the necessary funds to acquire him."How would he be acquired?" I'm assuming by trade to move up into the spot to take him. I could easily see any of: Buf, Mia, Den, Wash, Min, Arz, SF or Sea giving up a ton to sign Luck. There may even be a team like Clev, KC or Car who surprise and make a serious move for him. I'd imagine it would take more than a 1st to get him. Maybe a 1st and a 3rd or 4th.I'm not even sure if these trades are allowed to be honest.

 

[Harjiran]

While we won't see Andrew Luck in a supplemental draft this year, I think whoever has the #1 pick in 2012 will be fielding crazy offers for the rights to select him. I mean multiple 1sts or someone's entire draft a la Ditka. This is assuming his stock stays about where it is now. If you knew for certain that Luck will turn out to be the next Peyton or Brady, with 10-15 years of HOF-caliber play ahead of him, what would you offer? Every selection in your 2012 draft would seem like a bargain. I think someone will offer to give up the farm next year. Chances are good they'll get rejected too.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

If you change the thread title from: Andrew Luck: to Terrelle Pryor:

then it's a discussion. I could see someone throwing a 3rd round pick on Pryor.

 

[pantherclub]

While we won't see Andrew Luck in a supplemental draft this year, I think whoever has the #1 pick in 2012 will be fielding crazy offers for the rights to select him. I mean multiple 1sts or someone's entire draft a la Ditka. This is assuming his stock stays about where it is now. If you knew for certain that Luck will turn out to be the next Peyton or Brady, with 10-15 years of HOF-caliber play ahead of him, what would you offer? Every selection in your 2012 draft would seem like a bargain. I think someone will offer to give up the farm next year. Chances are good they'll get rejected too.

There are simply not enough draft picks to compensate for trading Luck. He is the most complete cerebral player since Elway. How many first round picks would Elway be worth? There is simply not a number that would quantify it. Luck puts any franchise way ahead of the curve. He will be one of the best qbs in the NFL within 3 years.

 

[daveR]

Despite Newton, despite Clausen, Carolina would win him by bidding their 1st.edit: Thought preference went in order of the prior year's draft, forgot about the tiering system.

I thought so, too. What's the "tiering system"?

 

[Sweet Love]

Despite Newton, despite Clausen, Carolina would win him by bidding their 1st.edit: Thought preference went in order of the prior year's draft, forgot about the tiering system.

I thought so, too. What's the "tiering system"?

I'm also curious. Please explain.

I'll pile on...I don't know what it is either. My guess is that Carolina has the #1 option, correct? Or can teams package picks (i.e. Denver's 2012 1st and 2nd is worth more than Carolina's first)? If something like this did happen where Luck entered and Carolina had the pick as long as they "entered it", I would guess they take him and field offers for Newton...even if it cost them less in picks than what they just paid for him.In regards to Pryor, I was listening to ESPN radio yesterday and a few people (hosts and experts) seemed to be split on whether he is even a viable QB. If he declared and the supplemental draft happened before FA, I don't think teams would bid much on him. If FA happens first and teams miss out on FA or QB trades, then I think you would see a team reach for him.

 

[coolnerd]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League_Draft#Supplemental_Draft

This the wikipedia explanation (I did feel messing with the pinned NFL rulebook)

Draft order is determined by a weighted system that is divided into three groupings. First come the teams that had six or fewer wins last season, followed by non-playoff teams that had more than six wins, followed by the 12 playoff teams. In the supplemental draft, a team is not required to use any picks. Instead, if a team wants a player in the supplemental draft, they submit a "bid" to the Commissioner with the round they would pick that player. If no other team places a bid on that player at an earlier spot, the team is awarded the player and has to give up an equivalent pick in the following year's draft. (For example, FS Paul Oliver was taken by the San Diego Chargers in the fourth round of the Supplemental Draft in 2007; thus, in the 2008 NFL Draft, the Chargers forfeited a fourth-round pick.)

 

[Carolina Hustler]

If you change the thread title from: Andrew Luck: to Terrelle Pryor: then it's a discussion. I could see someone throwing a 3rd round pick on Pryor.

Terrelle Pryor is going to be good

 

[_lurker_]

how about Michael Floyd? That's a lot more realistic than Luck and certainly appealing to many teams, yeah?

How will your dynasty leagues handle this?

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

If you change the thread title from: Andrew Luck: to Terrelle Pryor: then it's a discussion. I could see someone throwing a 3rd round pick on Pryor.

if you don't find the discussion interesting, stay out of it. TIA

 

[mcintyre1]

To relate to the Pryor discussion in the thread, it appears that Pryor is likely to enter the supplemental draft, if it happens. From 660AM in Ohio:

**BREAKING OHIO ST NEWS**Source: Terrelle Pryor had meetings this weekend with 3 agents - He will no longer be eligible for NCAAF 2011

**BREAKING OHIO ST NEWS**Source: Terrelle Pryor will not be sticking around to face a possible suspension - He met with agents this weekend

**BREAKING NEWS**:Source: Terrelle Pryor is looking into entering the NFL supplemental draft (If they have one) or possible CFL 1 year deal

**BREAKING NEWS**2nd Source: Confirms T Pryor did speak to multiple agents including the notorious @Rosenhaussports - He is done @ Ohio ST

I wouldn't be surprised to see a team spend a 2nd on him. He's got Cam Newton upside, physically, but he's got a lot of work to do on his passing skills.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

If you change the thread title from: Andrew Luck: to Terrelle Pryor: then it's a discussion. I could see someone throwing a 3rd round pick on Pryor.

if you don't find the discussion interesting, stay out of it. TIA

If you don't like my comments, please put me on your ignore list. TIA

 

[FUBAR]

While we won't see Andrew Luck in a supplemental draft this year, I think whoever has the #1 pick in 2012 will be fielding crazy offers for the rights to select him. I mean multiple 1sts or someone's entire draft a la Ditka. This is assuming his stock stays about where it is now. If you knew for certain that Luck will turn out to be the next Peyton or Brady, with 10-15 years of HOF-caliber play ahead of him, what would you offer? Every selection in your 2012 draft would seem like a bargain. I think someone will offer to give up the farm next year. Chances are good they'll get rejected too.

There are simply not enough draft picks to compensate for trading Luck. He is the most complete cerebral player since Elway. How many first round picks would Elway be worth? There is simply not a number that would quantify it. Luck puts any franchise way ahead of the curve. He will be one of the best qbs in the NFL within 3 years.

While I agree with your premise, lets make another leap of faith assumption.Newton, Dalton, Fitz and Tebow play as well as their teams could ever expect, enough to make their teams want to keep them starting for the long term. Assuming the preposterous, that the 2012 order is the same as the 2011 order. Or just that the worst few teams have very good QBs. (I know it's unlikely.) What would it take to move up a few spots? Probably just a 2013 1st and later picks. A trade like Atlanta/San Diego Vick/LT+ wouldn't be completely out of question IMO.

 

[pantherclub]

While we won't see Andrew Luck in a supplemental draft this year, I think whoever has the #1 pick in 2012 will be fielding crazy offers for the rights to select him. I mean multiple 1sts or someone's entire draft a la Ditka. This is assuming his stock stays about where it is now. If you knew for certain that Luck will turn out to be the next Peyton or Brady, with 10-15 years of HOF-caliber play ahead of him, what would you offer? Every selection in your 2012 draft would seem like a bargain. I think someone will offer to give up the farm next year. Chances are good they'll get rejected too.

There are simply not enough draft picks to compensate for trading Luck. He is the most complete cerebral player since Elway. How many first round picks would Elway be worth? There is simply not a number that would quantify it. Luck puts any franchise way ahead of the curve. He will be one of the best qbs in the NFL within 3 years.

While I agree with your premise, lets make another leap of faith assumption.Newton, Dalton, Fitz and Tebow play as well as their teams could ever expect, enough to make their teams want to keep them starting for the long term. Assuming the preposterous, that the 2012 order is the same as the 2011 order. Or just that the worst few teams have very good QBs. (I know it's unlikely.) What would it take to move up a few spots? Probably just a 2013 1st and later picks. A trade like Atlanta/San Diego Vick/LT+ wouldn't be completely out of question IMO.

No way. Lucks value supercedes all of that. I think whoever gets the #1 pick next year gets luck regardless who their qb is. You simply dont want to be the team that passes on Luck. He propels your football team into the upper tier. He is that good.

 

[coolnerd]

While we won't see Andrew Luck in a supplemental draft this year, I think whoever has the #1 pick in 2012 will be fielding crazy offers for the rights to select him. I mean multiple 1sts or someone's entire draft a la Ditka. This is assuming his stock stays about where it is now. If you knew for certain that Luck will turn out to be the next Peyton or Brady, with 10-15 years of HOF-caliber play ahead of him, what would you offer? Every selection in your 2012 draft would seem like a bargain. I think someone will offer to give up the farm next year. Chances are good they'll get rejected too.

There are simply not enough draft picks to compensate for trading Luck. He is the most complete cerebral player since Elway. How many first round picks would Elway be worth? There is simply not a number that would quantify it. Luck puts any franchise way ahead of the curve. He will be one of the best qbs in the NFL within 3 years.

While I agree with your premise, lets make another leap of faith assumption.Newton, Dalton, Fitz and Tebow play as well as their teams could ever expect, enough to make their teams want to keep them starting for the long term. Assuming the preposterous, that the 2012 order is the same as the 2011 order. Or just that the worst few teams have very good QBs. (I know it's unlikely.) What would it take to move up a few spots? Probably just a 2013 1st and later picks. A trade like Atlanta/San Diego Vick/LT+ wouldn't be completely out of question IMO.

Elway was worth two 1sts and a mediocore QB ( he did have unique leverage on the Colts, but Denver did not trade the farm to ge him). While he will have more value than a normal 1st overall pick, if a team trades like 4 1sts and a couple of 2nds then the question will be can they build enough around him? We can't answer that ahead of time, but really big Minnesota and NO trades did not help them in the short or long term. As I am thinking, has there been a silly huge trade up for a QB?

 

[pantherclub]

While we won't see Andrew Luck in a supplemental draft this year, I think whoever has the #1 pick in 2012 will be fielding crazy offers for the rights to select him. I mean multiple 1sts or someone's entire draft a la Ditka. This is assuming his stock stays about where it is now. If you knew for certain that Luck will turn out to be the next Peyton or Brady, with 10-15 years of HOF-caliber play ahead of him, what would you offer? Every selection in your 2012 draft would seem like a bargain. I think someone will offer to give up the farm next year. Chances are good they'll get rejected too.

There are simply not enough draft picks to compensate for trading Luck. He is the most complete cerebral player since Elway. How many first round picks would Elway be worth? There is simply not a number that would quantify it. Luck puts any franchise way ahead of the curve. He will be one of the best qbs in the NFL within 3 years.

While I agree with your premise, lets make another leap of faith assumption.Newton, Dalton, Fitz and Tebow play as well as their teams could ever expect, enough to make their teams want to keep them starting for the long term. Assuming the preposterous, that the 2012 order is the same as the 2011 order. Or just that the worst few teams have very good QBs. (I know it's unlikely.) What would it take to move up a few spots? Probably just a 2013 1st and later picks. A trade like Atlanta/San Diego Vick/LT+ wouldn't be completely out of question IMO.

Elway was worth two 1sts and a mediocore QB ( he did have unique leverage on the Colts, but Denver did not trade the farm to ge him). While he will have more value than a normal 1st overall pick, if a team trades like 4 1sts and a couple of 2nds then the question will be can they build enough around him? We can't answer that ahead of time, but really big Minnesota and NO trades did not help them in the short or long term. As I am thinking, has there been a silly huge trade up for a QB?

4 first round picks wouldnt be worth Elway or Luck. A franchise qb of that caliber is worth way more than that.

 

[menobrown]

If this happened Carolina would take Luck at #1. They'd posture about liking and signing them both while feverishly trying to trade Newton as quickly as possible. In the end Luck would end up in Carolina and another team would get Newton at a price less than what Carolina used to select him.

 

[D.J.]

If someone came out in the supplemental draft, don't they trend to get payed less also (based on their draft position)? I thought this was why top tier players dont usually go to the supplemental draft. Players go because they have to do to crazy circumstances. I could be wrong, but I think financially, in this scenario luck would become a steal in more ways than one (getting the #1 player in next years draft with next years pick, this year, plus he would be cheaper)

 

[D.J.]

http://football.about.com/od/miscinformation/a/supplementdraft.htm

The draft order sounds a lot like the nba lottery with an extra tier

 

[_lurker_]

If Luck went in the supplemental draft to CAR, would CAR have some obligation to Newton? In order for CAR to trade Newton, he'd have to be under contract, yeah? Suppose no team offered much for Newton, at least, not enough to sign Newton to the multi-million signing bonus required? Could CAR just release Newton without the expense of a big contract?

 

[KellysHeroes]

Sounding like Prior might go... Could be costing himself huge bucks and honestly why would a player with his talents want to get involved in the NFL in a off-season like this.

 

[D.J.]

Sounding like Prior might go... Could be costing himself huge bucks and honestly why would a player with his talents want to get involved in the NFL in a off-season like this.

W itell souns like he won't be playing at ohio state...his only alternative would be to take the year off...and risk becoming irrelevant. He doesn't seem to havr a good option

 

[Carolina Hustler]

Sounding like Prior might go... Could be costing himself huge bucks and honestly why would a player with his talents want to get involved in the NFL in a off-season like this.

W itell souns like he won't be playing at ohio state...his only alternative would be to take the year off...and risk becoming irrelevant. He doesn't seem to havr a good option

CFL..

 

[D.J.]

Sounding like Prior might go... Could be costing himself huge bucks and honestly why would a player with his talents want to get involved in the NFL in a off-season like this.

W itell souns like he won't be playing at ohio state...his only alternative would be to take the year off...and risk becoming irrelevant. He doesn't seem to havr a good option

CFL..

Lol, as I said. No other good options!

 

[FUBAR]

While we won't see Andrew Luck in a supplemental draft this year, I think whoever has the #1 pick in 2012 will be fielding crazy offers for the rights to select him. I mean multiple 1sts or someone's entire draft a la Ditka. This is assuming his stock stays about where it is now. If you knew for certain that Luck will turn out to be the next Peyton or Brady, with 10-15 years of HOF-caliber play ahead of him, what would you offer? Every selection in your 2012 draft would seem like a bargain. I think someone will offer to give up the farm next year. Chances are good they'll get rejected too.

There are simply not enough draft picks to compensate for trading Luck. He is the most complete cerebral player since Elway. How many first round picks would Elway be worth? There is simply not a number that would quantify it. Luck puts any franchise way ahead of the curve. He will be one of the best qbs in the NFL within 3 years.

While I agree with your premise, lets make another leap of faith assumption.Newton, Dalton, Fitz and Tebow play as well as their teams could ever expect, enough to make their teams want to keep them starting for the long term. Assuming the preposterous, that the 2012 order is the same as the 2011 order. Or just that the worst few teams have very good QBs. (I know it's unlikely.) What would it take to move up a few spots? Probably just a 2013 1st and later picks. A trade like Atlanta/San Diego Vick/LT+ wouldn't be completely out of question IMO.

Elway was worth two 1sts and a mediocore QB ( he did have unique leverage on the Colts, but Denver did not trade the farm to ge him). While he will have more value than a normal 1st overall pick, if a team trades like 4 1sts and a couple of 2nds then the question will be can they build enough around him? We can't answer that ahead of time, but really big Minnesota and NO trades did not help them in the short or long term. As I am thinking, has there been a silly huge trade up for a QB?

4 first round picks wouldnt be worth Elway or Luck. A franchise qb of that caliber is worth way more than that.

I like Luck but this is ridiculous. People want to anoint him as the next Peyton or Elway, but the last QB I remember being this hyped was Peyton's brother. Eli's done alright for himself, but he hasn't been worth what you're assuming Luck is. I'd bet Luck's career looks closer to Eli's than Peyton's.

 

[FUBAR]

If Luck went in the supplemental draft to CAR, would CAR have some obligation to Newton? In order for CAR to trade Newton, he'd have to be under contract, yeah? Suppose no team offered much for Newton, at least, not enough to sign Newton to the multi-million signing bonus required? Could CAR just release Newton without the expense of a big contract?

Depends on the CBA, but rights to players have been traded before.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Sounding like Prior might go... Could be costing himself huge bucks and honestly why would a player with his talents want to get involved in the NFL in a off-season like this.

W itell souns like he won't be playing at ohio state...his only alternative would be to take the year off...and risk becoming irrelevant. He doesn't seem to havr a good option

CFL..

Lol, as I said. No other good options!

suspended 5 games?

 

[coolnerd]

While we won't see Andrew Luck in a supplemental draft this year, I think whoever has the #1 pick in 2012 will be fielding crazy offers for the rights to select him. I mean multiple 1sts or someone's entire draft a la Ditka. This is assuming his stock stays about where it is now. If you knew for certain that Luck will turn out to be the next Peyton or Brady, with 10-15 years of HOF-caliber play ahead of him, what would you offer? Every selection in your 2012 draft would seem like a bargain. I think someone will offer to give up the farm next year. Chances are good they'll get rejected too.

There are simply not enough draft picks to compensate for trading Luck. He is the most complete cerebral player since Elway. How many first round picks would Elway be worth? There is simply not a number that would quantify it. Luck puts any franchise way ahead of the curve. He will be one of the best qbs in the NFL within 3 years.

While I agree with your premise, lets make another leap of faith assumption.Newton, Dalton, Fitz and Tebow play as well as their teams could ever expect, enough to make their teams want to keep them starting for the long term. Assuming the preposterous, that the 2012 order is the same as the 2011 order. Or just that the worst few teams have very good QBs. (I know it's unlikely.) What would it take to move up a few spots? Probably just a 2013 1st and later picks. A trade like Atlanta/San Diego Vick/LT+ wouldn't be completely out of question IMO.

Elway was worth two 1sts and a mediocore QB ( he did have unique leverage on the Colts, but Denver did not trade the farm to ge him). While he will have more value than a normal 1st overall pick, if a team trades like 4 1sts and a couple of 2nds then the question will be can they build enough around him? We can't answer that ahead of time, but really big Minnesota and NO trades did not help them in the short or long term. As I am thinking, has there been a silly huge trade up for a QB?

4 first round picks wouldnt be worth Elway or Luck. A franchise qb of that caliber is worth way more than that.

That is if you are guaranteed w/o a doubt getting "that guy." Elway was considered one of great prospects of all time, but even he did not cash in at the highest level until really late (the end of) in his career. While the Broncos never totally sucked under Elway there was plenty of early disappointment and a nice string of mediocrity in the early 90s before Terrell Davis showed up. In short (see elway career), an owner would have to figure out if 4 1st round picks now would be worth getting a couple of Superbowls somewhere around 2025.

 

[mcintyre1]

Sounding like Prior might go... Could be costing himself huge bucks and honestly why would a player with his talents want to get involved in the NFL in a off-season like this.

W itell souns like he won't be playing at ohio state...his only alternative would be to take the year off...and risk becoming irrelevant. He doesn't seem to havr a good option

CFL..

Lol, as I said. No other good options!

suspended 5 games?

Consensus at this point seems to be that he'll never see the field for OSU again (NCAA has opened new investigations into just Pryor).

 

[D.J.]

Sounding like Prior might go... Could be costing himself huge bucks and honestly why would a player with his talents want to get involved in the NFL in a off-season like this.

W itell souns like he won't be playing at ohio state...his only alternative would be to take the year off...and risk becoming irrelevant. He doesn't seem to havr a good option

CFL..

Lol, as I said. No other good options!

suspended 5 games?

Consensus at this point seems to be that he'll never see the field for OSU again (NCAA has opened new investigations into just Pryor).

I have heard the same. They are looking into something like 8 cars that he has "been connected to" I think with most of the big name college players, if you look hard enough.you will find something. I think he will end up with more than 5 games

 

[pantherclub]

While we won't see Andrew Luck in a supplemental draft this year, I think whoever has the #1 pick in 2012 will be fielding crazy offers for the rights to select him. I mean multiple 1sts or someone's entire draft a la Ditka. This is assuming his stock stays about where it is now. If you knew for certain that Luck will turn out to be the next Peyton or Brady, with 10-15 years of HOF-caliber play ahead of him, what would you offer? Every selection in your 2012 draft would seem like a bargain. I think someone will offer to give up the farm next year. Chances are good they'll get rejected too.

There are simply not enough draft picks to compensate for trading Luck. He is the most complete cerebral player since Elway. How many first round picks would Elway be worth? There is simply not a number that would quantify it. Luck puts any franchise way ahead of the curve. He will be one of the best qbs in the NFL within 3 years.

While I agree with your premise, lets make another leap of faith assumption.Newton, Dalton, Fitz and Tebow play as well as their teams could ever expect, enough to make their teams want to keep them starting for the long term. Assuming the preposterous, that the 2012 order is the same as the 2011 order. Or just that the worst few teams have very good QBs. (I know it's unlikely.) What would it take to move up a few spots? Probably just a 2013 1st and later picks. A trade like Atlanta/San Diego Vick/LT+ wouldn't be completely out of question IMO.

Elway was worth two 1sts and a mediocore QB ( he did have unique leverage on the Colts, but Denver did not trade the farm to ge him). While he will have more value than a normal 1st overall pick, if a team trades like 4 1sts and a couple of 2nds then the question will be can they build enough around him? We can't answer that ahead of time, but really big Minnesota and NO trades did not help them in the short or long term. As I am thinking, has there been a silly huge trade up for a QB?

4 first round picks wouldnt be worth Elway or Luck. A franchise qb of that caliber is worth way more than that.

That is if you are guaranteed w/o a doubt getting "that guy." Elway was considered one of great prospects of all time, but even he did not cash in at the highest level until really late (the end of) in his career. While the Broncos never totally sucked under Elway there was plenty of early disappointment and a nice string of mediocrity in the early 90s before Terrell Davis showed up. In short (see elway career), an owner would have to figure out if 4 1st round picks now would be worth getting a couple of Superbowls somewhere around 2025.

Just taking that as face value comparing it to Elway, but hell yeah an owner would take 2 superbowls in 15 years not to mention the other playoff runs. Andrew Luck is better than Manning was at this stage in his career and he is more athletic. I cannot compare him to Elway because I really dont remember him playing. Stanfords last 5 games Luck was in the zone, he had everything figured out. Should be interesting to see how 2011 starts off for him.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

While we won't see Andrew Luck in a supplemental draft this year, I think whoever has the #1 pick in 2012 will be fielding crazy offers for the rights to select him. I mean multiple 1sts or someone's entire draft a la Ditka. This is assuming his stock stays about where it is now. If you knew for certain that Luck will turn out to be the next Peyton or Brady, with 10-15 years of HOF-caliber play ahead of him, what would you offer? Every selection in your 2012 draft would seem like a bargain. I think someone will offer to give up the farm next year. Chances are good they'll get rejected too.

There are simply not enough draft picks to compensate for trading Luck. He is the most complete cerebral player since Elway. How many first round picks would Elway be worth? There is simply not a number that would quantify it. Luck puts any franchise way ahead of the curve. He will be one of the best qbs in the NFL within 3 years.

While I agree with your premise, lets make another leap of faith assumption.Newton, Dalton, Fitz and Tebow play as well as their teams could ever expect, enough to make their teams want to keep them starting for the long term. Assuming the preposterous, that the 2012 order is the same as the 2011 order. Or just that the worst few teams have very good QBs. (I know it's unlikely.) What would it take to move up a few spots? Probably just a 2013 1st and later picks. A trade like Atlanta/San Diego Vick/LT+ wouldn't be completely out of question IMO.

Elway was worth two 1sts and a mediocore QB ( he did have unique leverage on the Colts, but Denver did not trade the farm to ge him). While he will have more value than a normal 1st overall pick, if a team trades like 4 1sts and a couple of 2nds then the question will be can they build enough around him? We can't answer that ahead of time, but really big Minnesota and NO trades did not help them in the short or long term. As I am thinking, has there been a silly huge trade up for a QB?

4 first round picks wouldnt be worth Elway or Luck. A franchise qb of that caliber is worth way more than that.

I like Luck but this is ridiculous. People want to anoint him as the next Peyton or Elway, but the last QB I remember being this hyped was Peyton's brother. Eli's done alright for himself, but he hasn't been worth what you're assuming Luck is. I'd bet Luck's career looks closer to Eli's than Peyton's.

No one ever said Eli was in Peyton's class.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

how about Michael Floyd? That's a lot more realistic than Luck and certainly appealing to many teams, yeah?

How will your dynasty leagues handle this?

They become part of the waiver wire an open to bidding once they get added to the system at MFL.

 

[FUBAR]

While we won't see Andrew Luck in a supplemental draft this year, I think whoever has the #1 pick in 2012 will be fielding crazy offers for the rights to select him. I mean multiple 1sts or someone's entire draft a la Ditka. This is assuming his stock stays about where it is now. If you knew for certain that Luck will turn out to be the next Peyton or Brady, with 10-15 years of HOF-caliber play ahead of him, what would you offer? Every selection in your 2012 draft would seem like a bargain. I think someone will offer to give up the farm next year. Chances are good they'll get rejected too.

There are simply not enough draft picks to compensate for trading Luck. He is the most complete cerebral player since Elway. How many first round picks would Elway be worth? There is simply not a number that would quantify it. Luck puts any franchise way ahead of the curve. He will be one of the best qbs in the NFL within 3 years.

While I agree with your premise, lets make another leap of faith assumption.

Newton, Dalton, Fitz and Tebow play as well as their teams could ever expect, enough to make their teams want to keep them starting for the long term. Assuming the preposterous, that the 2012 order is the same as the 2011 order. Or just that the worst few teams have very good QBs. (I know it's unlikely.) What would it take to move up a few spots? Probably just a 2013 1st and later picks. A trade like Atlanta/San Diego Vick/LT+ wouldn't be completely out of question IMO.

Elway was worth two 1sts and a mediocore QB ( he did have unique leverage on the Colts, but Denver did not trade the farm to ge him). While he will have more value than a normal 1st overall pick, if a team trades like 4 1sts and a couple of 2nds then the question will be can they build enough around him? We can't answer that ahead of time, but really big Minnesota and NO trades did not help them in the short or long term. As I am thinking, has there been a silly huge trade up for a QB?

4 first round picks wouldnt be worth Elway or Luck. A franchise qb of that caliber is worth way more than that.

I like Luck but this is ridiculous. People want to anoint him as the next Peyton or Elway, but the last QB I remember being this hyped was Peyton's brother. Eli's done alright for himself, but he hasn't been worth what you're assuming Luck is. I'd bet Luck's career looks closer to Eli's than Peyton's.

No one ever said Eli was in Peyton's class.

Not what I wrote. FWIW, one writer's opinion on QB prospects, 2000-2011:

1. Michael Vick, Virginia Tech. (No. 1 overall, 2000.) He was the most exciting player in recent college football history. Nobody knew how that'd translate to the NFL, but everybody wanted him.

2. Eli Manning, Ole Miss. (No. 1 overall, 2004.) Not quite as golden a prospect as his older brother, but an easy fit here.

3. Philip Rivers, NC State. (No. 4 overall, 2004.) Maybe the best arm in the draft since Elway. (But without Elway's athleticism.)

4. Andrew Luck, Stanford. (Potentially in 2011 draft.) Has the weight-speed-arm. His real bonus comes with his mastery of Stanford's pro-style offense and his leadership abilities. I think he could be the 49ers' offensive coordinator, right now.

5. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma. (No. 1 overall, 2010.) Would rate higher except for the shoulder injury in his final college season.

6. Carson Palmer, USC. (No. 1 overall, 2003.) Second-best arm in the draft since Elway.

7. Vince Young, Texas. (No. 3 overall, 2006.) Questions about his throwing motion and fit for a pro-style offense, none about his ability to crush defenses with his legs and his performances in big games.

8. Matthew Stafford, Georgia. (No. 1 overall, 2009.) Classic drop-back passer, but why didn't Georgia win more?

9. Aaron Rodgers, Cal. (No. 24 overall, 2005.) Brutally under-valued in the draft, possibly because of the hitch in his throw, which has been ironed out.

10. Matt Leinart, USC. (No. 10 overall, 2006.) All he did was win games in college. But major concerns about his arm strength and passion for the game. Borne out in the NFL.

ETA: somewhat ironic that the top 3 QB prospects were traded. Yet #4 is untradeable?

 

[pantherclub]

just because some dude named Tim Kawakami wrote it doesnt make it so. But I will play, Rivers and Manning were traded to opposite teams so thats a wash. Most people felt that Vick was a long way away from starting in the NFL plus his baggage.

 

[eakfootball]

Carolina would take him, then trade Newton to the Bills for Dareus.

 

[eakfootball]

While we won't see Andrew Luck in a supplemental draft this year, I think whoever has the #1 pick in 2012 will be fielding crazy offers for the rights to select him. I mean multiple 1sts or someone's entire draft a la Ditka. This is assuming his stock stays about where it is now. If you knew for certain that Luck will turn out to be the next Peyton or Brady, with 10-15 years of HOF-caliber play ahead of him, what would you offer? Every selection in your 2012 draft would seem like a bargain. I think someone will offer to give up the farm next year. Chances are good they'll get rejected too.

There are simply not enough draft picks to compensate for trading Luck. He is the most complete cerebral player since Elway. How many first round picks would Elway be worth? There is simply not a number that would quantify it. Luck puts any franchise way ahead of the curve. He will be one of the best qbs in the NFL within 3 years.

While I agree with your premise, lets make another leap of faith assumption.

Newton, Dalton, Fitz and Tebow play as well as their teams could ever expect, enough to make their teams want to keep them starting for the long term. Assuming the preposterous, that the 2012 order is the same as the 2011 order. Or just that the worst few teams have very good QBs. (I know it's unlikely.) What would it take to move up a few spots? Probably just a 2013 1st and later picks. A trade like Atlanta/San Diego Vick/LT+ wouldn't be completely out of question IMO.

Elway was worth two 1sts and a mediocore QB ( he did have unique leverage on the Colts, but Denver did not trade the farm to ge him). While he will have more value than a normal 1st overall pick, if a team trades like 4 1sts and a couple of 2nds then the question will be can they build enough around him? We can't answer that ahead of time, but really big Minnesota and NO trades did not help them in the short or long term. As I am thinking, has there been a silly huge trade up for a QB?

4 first round picks wouldnt be worth Elway or Luck. A franchise qb of that caliber is worth way more than that.

I like Luck but this is ridiculous. People want to anoint him as the next Peyton or Elway, but the last QB I remember being this hyped was Peyton's brother. Eli's done alright for himself, but he hasn't been worth what you're assuming Luck is. I'd bet Luck's career looks closer to Eli's than Peyton's.

No one ever said Eli was in Peyton's class.

Not what I wrote. FWIW, one writer's opinion on QB prospects, 2000-2011:

1. Michael Vick, Virginia Tech. (No. 1 overall, 2000.) He was the most exciting player in recent college football history. Nobody knew how that'd translate to the NFL, but everybody wanted him.

2. Eli Manning, Ole Miss. (No. 1 overall, 2004.) Not quite as golden a prospect as his older brother, but an easy fit here.

3. Philip Rivers, NC State. (No. 4 overall, 2004.) Maybe the best arm in the draft since Elway. (But without Elway's athleticism.)

4. Andrew Luck, Stanford. (Potentially in 2011 draft.) Has the weight-speed-arm. His real bonus comes with his mastery of Stanford's pro-style offense and his leadership abilities. I think he could be the 49ers' offensive coordinator, right now.

5. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma. (No. 1 overall, 2010.) Would rate higher except for the shoulder injury in his final college season.

6. Carson Palmer, USC. (No. 1 overall, 2003.) Second-best arm in the draft since Elway.

7. Vince Young, Texas. (No. 3 overall, 2006.) Questions about his throwing motion and fit for a pro-style offense, none about his ability to crush defenses with his legs and his performances in big games.

8. Matthew Stafford, Georgia. (No. 1 overall, 2009.) Classic drop-back passer, but why didn't Georgia win more?

9. Aaron Rodgers, Cal. (No. 24 overall, 2005.) Brutally under-valued in the draft, possibly because of the hitch in his throw, which has been ironed out.

10. Matt Leinart, USC. (No. 10 overall, 2006.) All he did was win games in college. But major concerns about his arm strength and passion for the game. Borne out in the NFL.

ETA: somewhat ironic that the top 3 QB prospects were traded. Yet #4 is untradeable?

I would put Luck number 1 or 2 on this, and Vick wouldn't be my 1.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Carolina would take him, then trade Newton to the Bills for Dareus.

Dareus was the #1 player on Buffalo's board. Besides, Carolina wouldn't automatically get the first shot at him anyway, as has already been pointed out.

 

[GroveDiesel]

If you change the thread title from: Andrew Luck: to Terrelle Pryor: then it's a discussion. I could see someone throwing a 3rd round pick on Pryor.

Terrelle Pryor is going to be good

Pryor is a bum and would be lucky to get picked with a 5th or 6th round pick in either the real or supplemental draft unless a team was looking to convert him to TE.He has no accuracy, no touch, no ability to read defenses and with his baggage and poor real life decisions, he is one giant red flag. IMO, he'll either be out of the league within 4 years or a #3 QB at best.

 

[_lurker_]

How about other OSU players that could apply (eg. Herron)?

 

[eakfootball]

Carolina would take him, then trade Newton to the Bills for Dareus.

Dareus was the #1 player on Buffalo's board. Besides, Carolina wouldn't automatically get the first shot at him anyway, as has already been pointed out.

Of course they had to say that. Their real board was probably 1 Newton 2 Miller 3 Dareus.

 

[Hoosier16]

http://football.abou...lementdraft.htm

The draft order sounds a lot like the nba lottery with an extra tier

That would be an interesting way for a QB to circumvent being drafted by Carolina. I wonder if the supplemental order is chosen before or after the deadline for players to declare for the draft. There are 13 teams with 6 or less wins who would be eligible for the #1 pick in the supplemental draft. What if SF (or another good spot) ended up with the #1? That might be enough for Luck to change his mind.

 

[Warhogs]

I play in several zealots leagues. Our drafts are held before the supplemental darft. It would be interesting to see how many zbucks Luck would go for in auction if he was a supplemental pick. I think a lot of guys would be emptying their bank accounts for Luck.

 

[coolnerd]

I play in several zealots leagues. Our drafts are held before the supplemental darft. It would be interesting to see how many zbucks Luck would go for in auction if he was a supplemental pick. I think a lot of guys would be emptying their bank accounts for Luck.

Yeah the guys who have saved up for years would all of a sudden have something to do with 30,000 zbucks sitting around.

 

[RUSF18]

http://football.abou...lementdraft.htm

The draft order sounds a lot like the nba lottery with an extra tier

That would be an interesting way for a QB to circumvent being drafted by Carolina. I wonder if the supplemental order is chosen before or after the deadline for players to declare for the draft. There are 13 teams with 6 or less wins who would be eligible for the #1 pick in the supplemental draft. What if SF (or another good spot) ended up with the #1? That might be enough for Luck to change his mind.

Just a guess, but I think the order is determined after the players must declare. I say that because I've seen references that the owners haven't decided how to handle the potential for a supplemental draft because no one has applied yet. And I don't think it's the case like the NBA (pretty sure the NFL doesn't even do this) where you can submit your name, hear feedback, and withdraw.

 

[WVU Alum]

I play in several zealots leagues. Our drafts are held before the supplemental darft. It would be interesting to see how many zbucks Luck would go for in auction if he was a supplemental pick. I think a lot of guys would be emptying their bank accounts for Luck.

Yeah the guys who have saved up for years would all of a sudden have something to do with 30,000 zbucks sitting around.

Yep, I'd spend it all.