Andrew Luck watch (1 Viewer)

[Faust]

Future Book Odds

At 125-1 to win the Superbowl, the following teams look to be in the best position to finish with the # 1 overall pick (assuming Luck stays as the top QB prospect for next year's draft:

Carolina

Buffalo

Denver (playing in the AFC West should be good enough for too many wins to be able to claim Luck, but you never know)

At 100-1 these are the teams who are next in line:

Cleveland

Cincinnati

Arizona (again, playing in a weak division should preclude them from landing Luck)

Then at 75-1:

Oakland

And at 60-1:

Detroit

Minnesota

Seattle

Looking at these teams, the best bets are Buffalo, Carolina, Cincinnati, or Cleveland. With the new rookie salary structure, it could be a pick that gets traded as well, if the ransom was high enough (and I could see Carolina trading the pick with two other high picks at the QB position and pending how Cam Newton develops).

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

Broncos, Bills, and Redskins are my favorites. I'm eliminating the Bungles because Mike Brown is an idiot, and will screw up and not do what is best for his franchise.

The Bills just don't have a lot. The offensive line is absolutely horrid, after Steve Johnson they don't have anything that is proven, Fitzpatrick is decent, but not a guy that will win games... Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller at this point aren't scaring anyone, although I point to the OL for that failure.

The defense is still getting pieced together, and Dareus is going to be a monster. I love the defensive draft picks, but they're going to get roughed up this year.

 

[jurb26]

CarolinaBuffaloDenver (playing in the AFC West should be good enough for too many wins to be able to claim Luck, but you never know)ClevelandCincinnatiArizona (again, playing in a weak division should preclude them from landing Luck)OaklandDetroitMinnesotaSeattle

I think a few teams could be added to the list as potentially realistic shots at the #1 overall pick. I'd put Wash, Mia and SF in there.Of that group, there are a few that just aren't going to take a QB at #1 IMO. Car, Det and possibly Arz would seem to have made some pretty big commitments to their current QBs and I think would go in another direction. That leaves a group of 10 teams and as a current Luck owner in dynasty I'll rank them in the order I would like him to end up in:SF - Perfect marriage IMO. The team has spent a lot investing in a strong Oline, has got decent weapons at the skill positions and oh, there is that head coach they just hired!Cinci - Ownership isn't the best but the thought of Luck chucking passes to a stud like AJ Green really tickles my fancy!Sea - Sea is a team that could be a franchise QB away from conference championship material.Mia - Franchise LT, check. Premier WR, check. Glaring need at QB, check.Clev - They've got the franchise LT as well, just not the premier WR. Still I like Clev.Oak - If Al Davis wasn't the owner I'd probably list this team #1. He just scares me. Otherwise, Oak has great talent and should still be a solid landing place. I don't think Oak will be bad enough to really be in this race however.Buf - Little bit of a lack of weapons here but S. Johnson is probably the best WR of the remaining teams. Oline scares me a little.Den - I've really got no idea what is going on in Den so it's tough for me to say much on them. I don't think they will be bad enough to be in the running but you never know.Minn - I think Minn is on a big downward turn. Wash - Total mess right now. Maybe the most likely landing spot because I can't see how this team wins more than 4 games.

 

[glumpy]

If Cinci takes Luck, they flushed a high 2nd round pick down the drain this year. That is pretty sad for a team with so many holes.

same can be said for Carolina.

Epic screw up if Carolina takes QBs with the 1st pick 2 years in a row. I don't see that happening.

He was more referring to Jimmy Clausen with the 2nd rounder last year and then Cam this year as the 1.1...

Oh yeah, duh. Huge screw-up there. I didn't see much of Carolina last year, but was Clausen really that bad for a rookie?

Yes and no. He had zero protection from the line and a lot of dropped balls.

 

[Ilov80s]

If Cinci takes Luck, they flushed a high 2nd round pick down the drain this year. That is pretty sad for a team with so many holes.

The vast majority of teams end up flushing their 2nd round pick down the drain every year. The majority of those guys never amount to anything anyway.

and some of them amount to NFL elite. Drafting a guy in the 2nd and then just throwing in the towel on him the next year is not good team management.

Passing on the most sure-fire QB prospect since Peyton Manning is not good team management.You don't pass on a guy like that because you're worried about "wasting" your 2nd round pick, the majority of which end up busts anyhow, from the year before.

I agree, the mistake was taking Dalton in the 2nd no taking Luck first.

 

[notdarkyet]

The Bengals will end up going on a meaningless run at the end of the season to eek themselves out of the Luck sweepstakes. They suck so bad they can't even lose right. /Bengals Fan //Sigh

 

[QuizGuy66]

The Bengals will end up going on a meaningless run at the end of the season to eek themselves out of the Luck sweepstakes. They suck so bad they can't even lose right. /Bengals Fan //Sigh

Yep, the annual dead cat bounce.-QG

 

[notdarkyet]

The Bengals will end up going on a meaningless run at the end of the season to eek themselves out of the Luck sweepstakes. They suck so bad they can't even lose right. /Bengals Fan //Sigh

Yep, the annual dead cat bounce.-QG

I like the term. Will use.

 

[Jason Wood]

There's a chance the team that lands Luck isn't someone we're even thinking about. It'll probably be a team that was considered a fringe team, but a few key injuries turn them into a non factor.

If I'm handicapping right now, I would rank my Top 5 choices as:

*** Washington -- No QB, No RB, Very little on the offensive line, no CBs of consequence, and in an uber tough division

*** Buffalo -- In an equally tough division, absolutely no weapons on offense outside of Stevie Stylez, questionable D (albeit looking better)

*** Oakland -- Just not seeing it. Tried to give Campbell the benefit of the doubt, but with the loss of Miller and questionable huge $$ moves on marginal free agents, I see them struggling yet again

*** Cincinnati -- C'mon, it's Cincinnati. Nuff said.

*** Cleveland -- The Browns could be OK, but I still struggle to see where the points are coming from, and I don't see many playmakers on D. They need a few stars to emerge to bolster what looks like a decent group of core players

 

[FUBAR]

If Cinci takes Luck, they flushed a high 2nd round pick down the drain this year. That is pretty sad for a team with so many holes.

The vast majority of teams end up flushing their 2nd round pick down the drain every year. The majority of those guys never amount to anything anyway.

and some of them amount to NFL elite. Drafting a guy in the 2nd and then just throwing in the towel on him the next year is not good team management.

Passing on the most sure-fire QB prospect since Peyton Manning is not good team management.You don't pass on a guy like that because you're worried about "wasting" your 2nd round pick, the majority of which end up busts anyhow, from the year before.

I agree, the mistake was taking Dalton in the 2nd no taking Luck first.

I don't think either move could be considered a mistake unless Dalton just sucks.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I guess Kevin Kolb was another "wasted" pick since the Eagles had McNabb and then signed Vick later on, except they turned Kolb into a Pro Bowl CB and 2nd round pick.

 

[FUBAR]

There's a chance the team that lands Luck isn't someone we're even thinking about. It'll probably be a team that was considered a fringe team, but a few key injuries turn them into a non factor.

If I'm handicapping right now, I would rank my Top 5 choices as:

*** Washington -- No QB, No RB, Very little on the offensive line, no CBs of consequence, and in an uber tough division

*** Buffalo -- In an equally tough division, absolutely no weapons on offense outside of Stevie Stylez, questionable D (albeit looking better)

*** Oakland -- Just not seeing it. Tried to give Campbell the benefit of the doubt, but with the loss of Miller and questionable huge $ moves on marginal free agents, I see them struggling yet again

*** Cincinnati -- C'mon, it's Cincinnati. Nuff said.

*** Cleveland -- The Browns could be OK, but I still struggle to see where the points are coming from, and I don't see many playmakers on D. They need a few stars to emerge to bolster what looks like a decent group of core players

Carolina was 8-8 in 2009 with a decent D, run game. My Titans could easily end up with the #1 pick (or if CJ returns and Hass does well, could make the playoffs). Same can be said for the Seahawks, Jaguars, Dolphins, among others. While I maintain that the Skins have the best chance to end up with him either by having the worst record or a mammoth trade, my "outside shot" is the Dolphins. Which FWIW, would be awesome IMO and I'm not a fin-fan.

 

[Ilov80s]

I guess Kevin Kolb was another "wasted" pick since the Eagles had McNabb and then signed Vick later on, except they turned Kolb into a Pro Bowl CB and 2nd round pick.

There is a difference between drafting a young QB to groom to replace an aging veteran and drafting a young QB in the first 2 rounds in consecutive years. Also, just because a QB was recently drafted in the top 2 rounds, doesn't mean he will have any trade value- see Clausen, Brady Quinn, Pat White, etc.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

There is a difference between drafting a young QB to groom to replace an aging veteran and drafting a young QB in the first 2 rounds in consecutive years. Also, just because a QB was recently drafted in the top 2 rounds, doesn't mean he will have any trade value- see Clausen, Brady Quinn, Pat White, etc.

People waste picks all the time. If Dalton is good enough to start, the Bengals probably won't be in the Luck hunt anyway, but he will also certainly have trade value down the road. He could also allow the team to bring Luck along slowly if he needs it. If he's only good enough to be a #2, there's value inherent in that as well.I think the important thing for bad teams is mainly to hit on as many draft picks as possible. If they hit on Dalton and then hit on Luck, that's almost certainly going to be a good thing for that franchise, not a waste.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I'll ask again, why, outside of Grossman starting at QB, which is something people just can't get their heads around, is Washington a mess, especially after a great draft and great FA period? Nobody responded to this earlier in the thread, but I'll repost it:Seems like the point of starting this thread now would be to take what we see in preseason and use that to predict the worst teams. Whether you agree with using preseason as a gauge or not, I don't see another reason to start a new thread on this in the middle of preseason.That said, did you see Washington last night? I'm not predicting a SB or even the playoffs, but that wasn't one of the worst team's in the league out there. That was a younger, fundamentally sound team that just happens to have Rex Grossman at QB...who plays well in Kyle Shanahan's system.

 

[FUBAR]

I'll ask again, why, outside of Grossman starting at QB, which is something people just can't get their heads around, is Washington a mess, especially after a great draft and great FA period? Nobody responded to this earlier in the thread, but I'll repost it:Seems like the point of starting this thread now would be to take what we see in preseason and use that to predict the worst teams. Whether you agree with using preseason as a gauge or not, I don't see another reason to start a new thread on this in the middle of preseason.That said, did you see Washington last night? I'm not predicting a SB or even the playoffs, but that wasn't one of the worst team's in the league out there. That was a younger, fundamentally sound team that just happens to have Rex Grossman at QB...who plays well in Kyle Shanahan's system.

Below average run game, one of the worst starting QBs, a D that doesn't scare anyone and playing in the toughest division. They do have 4 fairly easy games and may get lucky in some others, but I see no reason to be optimistic there.

 

[jurb26]

I'll ask again, why, outside of Grossman starting at QB, which is something people just can't get their heads around, is Washington a mess, especially after a great draft and great FA period? Nobody responded to this earlier in the thread, but I'll repost it:Seems like the point of starting this thread now would be to take what we see in preseason and use that to predict the worst teams. Whether you agree with using preseason as a gauge or not, I don't see another reason to start a new thread on this in the middle of preseason.That said, did you see Washington last night? I'm not predicting a SB or even the playoffs, but that wasn't one of the worst team's in the league out there. That was a younger, fundamentally sound team that just happens to have Rex Grossman at QB...who plays well in Kyle Shanahan's system.

You do realize we're just in the pre-season, right? Wash is easily one of the worst teams in the NFL right now. They may have the worst starting QB situation in the NFL, if not the worst at least bottom 5. That alone places them in the bottom half of the NFL IMO. They also have one of the worst Olines in the NFL. I'd say it is the worst, but even if you don't agree I can't see how they are any better then bottom 10. They have very little at WR or RB. Basically the only position of strength on offense is TE. Not exactly what you want for your NFL team. The defense is probably better in terms of talent but they still finished as the 31st ranked D in the NFL. They have a sever need for pass rushers and lacked the ability to pressure the QB for a few years now. There is at least a solid base of players on D in McIntosh, Landry and Orakpo, add to it the Cooley and Davis on O but other than that this team could use upgrades at every other position.You say they had a solid draft. That's nice that you think so, I happen to like it as well, but we don't know what those rookies will do yet. I like that they addressed the Dline as it was a glaring weakness but we don't know either guy will work out and they Oline is just as bad and wasn't addressed at all. Wash also plays in one of the toughest divisions in football and I think they'd be lucky to win 2 games in the division.

 

[NBusiness]

Theres also one other huge factor all of you are forgetting- Andrew Luck is a junior. He puts his education very highly and football really is secondary to this guy. Regardless of his draft stock next april, there is still a 50% chance probably he stays to be a senior.

 

[huntunc]

Theres also one other huge factor all of you are forgetting- Andrew Luck is a junior. He puts his education very highly and football really is secondary to this guy. Regardless of his draft stock next april, there is still a 50% chance probably he stays to be a senior.

He is a Jr. on the field, not in terms of years in school. I doubt he won't have his degree by the end of the Fall and especially the Spring.http://www.gostanford.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/luck_andrew00.html

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Crazy. Just because Grossman is perceived as a worse QB than McNabb, doesn't mean he is, especially in this system. So, including the QB position , this team is better and younger than last years, and has an overall easier schedule.

People just like to repeat what they hear in the national media. It's not surprising. People like to be comfortable in what they "know" about teams they don't follow. This leads to a lot of commonly known facts about a team, that are not true at all.

This team has a bottom-5 QB situation? I agree that I'd rather have a future franchise QB to root for, but last year this team had a top-ten passing offense. If you can ignore the names and look at their ability in THIS system, which is all that matters, then you have to admit that Grossman is a better QB in Washington than public perception allows for, and he continues to demonstrate that, even though it's not trendy to admit it.

The defense had a FA period and draft totally dedicated to acquiring hard-working, high-motor scheme-fits...Which is what was missing last year from a group with some Ill-fitting talent.

RB? Again, just because the names are not flashy, doesn't mean that a group of Hightower, Torain, and Helu can't get it done. As always demonstrated by Shanahan's ugly RB corps, they will.

WR? Again, not a good looking roster on paper. In reality, this group combined with our QB's last year to put up top-ten numbers yardage-wise. Moss is back, and Armstrong, who put up over 800 yards last year, has been bumped down to 3rd on the depth chart by Gaffney, who is a good possession WR acquired for practically nothing. Then you've got Hankerson developing in the wings. I'll repeat, not a pretty group on paper, but they'll get it done.

The only real question mark is the OL. And they have looked, in limited action vs. the Steelers 1st and 2nd team, much, much improved.

The point is that national media doesn't like the names filling the starting positions in Washington on paper. And public opinion takes it's cues from that.

But when has a pretty team on paper ever done ANYTHING for the Skins the past 10-20 years? Never, is the correct answer. I'll take an under-appreciated, fundamentally-sound, well-coached and young "ugly" team any day of the week, and twice on Sundays, to use a tired cliche.

It will take a while for the average fan to admit it, but this team will not be bottom ten this year, and might even over-achieve a bit. Its better than last year's team, and built more soundly, with players that fit better....with an easier schedule in a division where only the Eagles have made any real strides to improve. Fantasy Football owners don't like the look of this roster, because it's not flashy. But the sum of it's parts will surprise people (at least the ones expecting a bottom-5/10 finish).

 

[Sylira21]

The Colts were 9-7 in 1996 and went to the playoffs. Peyton Manning had finished his degree that year, and was projected to be the top overall draft pick, but elected to stay in school for his senior season. Jim Irsay took over the Colts in 1997 and "guided" them to 3-13, thereby winning the 'Peyton Manning Derby'.

While this is entertaining, I will humbly submit we have no clue as to who will have the worst record in the league this year, nor what team will end up with Andrew Luck.

If Manning had come out in 1997, The St. Louis Rams would have had first shot at him. Wonder what Peyton would have done in a Mike Martz offense...

 

[Chase Stuart]

The Colts were 9-7 in 1996 and went to the playoffs. Peyton Manning had finished his degree that year, and was projected to be the top overall draft pick, but elected to stay in school for his senior season. Jim Irsay took over the Colts in 1997 and "guided" them to 3-13, thereby winning the 'Peyton Manning Derby'. While this is entertaining, I will humbly submit we have no clue as to who will have the worst record in the league this year, nor what team will end up with Andrew Luck. If Manning had come out in 1997, The St. Louis Rams would have had first shot at him. Wonder what Peyton would have done in a Mike Martz offense...

Actually, the Jets were going to have Manning. Some wondered if he specifically didn't want to play in New York and under Bill Parcells, as he ended up going back to school. Ironically, his brother later put up a stink just to get to NY.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

The Colts were 9-7 in 1996 and went to the playoffs. Peyton Manning had finished his degree that year, and was projected to be the top overall draft pick, but elected to stay in school for his senior season. Jim Irsay took over the Colts in 1997 and "guided" them to 3-13, thereby winning the 'Peyton Manning Derby'. While this is entertaining, I will humbly submit we have no clue as to who will have the worst record in the league this year, nor what team will end up with Andrew Luck. If Manning had come out in 1997, The St. Louis Rams would have had first shot at him. Wonder what Peyton would have done in a Mike Martz offense...

Actually, the Jets were going to have Manning. Some wondered if he specifically didn't want to play in New York and under Bill Parcells, as he ended up going back to school. Ironically, his brother later put up a stink just to get to NY.

IIRC Parcells refused to promise Peyton he would be the top pick. Had he agreed to that there's a chance he would have landed in NY.

 

[Joe Summer]

The Colts were 9-7 in 1996 and went to the playoffs. Peyton Manning had finished his degree that year, and was projected to be the top overall draft pick, but elected to stay in school for his senior season. Jim Irsay took over the Colts in 1997 and "guided" them to 3-13, thereby winning the 'Peyton Manning Derby'. While this is entertaining, I will humbly submit we have no clue as to who will have the worst record in the league this year, nor what team will end up with Andrew Luck. If Manning had come out in 1997, The St. Louis Rams would have had first shot at him. Wonder what Peyton would have done in a Mike Martz offense...

If Manning goes to St. Louis in 1997, Martz never gets hired in 1999.