Andy Dufresne Two Round Mock (1 Viewer)

[Andy Dufresne]

Oakland would wreck everything if they don't take Russell.

They're taking him. Followed by Detroit taking Thomas. Followed by the Browns taking... ......I'm still debating this one.

IMO, Browns would take Jamarcus.I wonder if the Lions won't take Willis regardless of where they're drafting. Even at #2. It wouldn't be the first time a linebacker was taken that high. Their needs are definitely on the defensive side. If I were them, I'd go LB, DE, CB with my first three picks.Not sure what happens to Quinn in this situation. Probably ends up with the Dolphins.

 

[wadegarrett]

Oakland would wreck everything if they don't take Russell.

They're taking him. Followed by Detroit taking Thomas. Followed by the Browns taking... ......I'm still debating this one.

IMO, Browns would take Jamarcus.I wonder if the Lions won't take Willis regardless of where they're drafting. Even at #2. It wouldn't be the first time a linebacker was taken that high. Their needs are definitely on the defensive side. If I were them, I'd go LB, DE, CB with my first three picks.Not sure what happens to Quinn in this situation. Probably ends up with the Dolphins.

If Russell falls to #3, it will take Savage all of 2 seconds to turn in their card. He won't be there though. Oakland takes him #1. You may be right about the Lions going D. I honestly have no idea who the Browns will take if Thomas, Peterson and Quinn are all there. As a fan, I hope the pick is Thomas.

 

[knobby]

Oakland would wreck everything if they don't take Russell.

They're taking him. Followed by Detroit taking Thomas. Followed by the Browns taking... ......I'm still debating this one.

IMO, Browns would take Jamarcus.I wonder if the Lions won't take Willis regardless of where they're drafting. Even at #2. It wouldn't be the first time a linebacker was taken that high. Their needs are definitely on the defensive side. If I were them, I'd go LB, DE, CB with my first three picks.Not sure what happens to Quinn in this situation. Probably ends up with the Dolphins.

If Russell falls to #3, it will take Savage all of 2 seconds to turn in their card. He won't be there though. Oakland takes him #1. You may be right about the Lions going D. I honestly have no idea who the Browns will take if Thomas, Peterson and Quinn are all there. As a fan, I hope the pick is Thomas.

I wonder what the overall % of Browns fans who want the team to draft Thomas is? It has to be high. Most of my friends are Browns fans, and almost every single one wants the pick to be Thomas. There are a couple of Calvin Johnson voters, and a very few ADP's. I can't think of very many who are hoping for a QB with the first round pick.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

If Russell & CJ are gone in the first two picks, Thomas HAS to be the Browns pick.

 

[Chaos Commish]

If Russell & CJ are gone in the first two picks, Thomas HAS to be the Browns pick.

I'm slowly getting onboard with the Parcell's OL philosophy of not drafting OLs early. DBrick had more hype than Thomas. Who had a bigger positive impact on their teams, Maroney, Addai, Drew or DBrick? The backs did in every case. Thomas probably isn't as quick as DBrick in pass protection and DBrick got torn up repeatedly. Thomas was smart to skip the Senior Bowl and he's played this draft season nicely, but taking him over All Day is just another major setback for a franchise that wrote the book on major setbacks. Peterson wins football games, controls the clock, breaks huge plays and scores TDs. Thomas struggles to deal with the incredible DEs in the NFL for a year or two (like Walter Jones did) and the Browns remain the same whipping boy they already are.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

If Russell & CJ are gone in the first two picks, Thomas HAS to be the Browns pick.

I'm slowly getting onboard with the Parcell's OL philosophy of not drafting OLs early. DBrick had more hype than Thomas. Who had a bigger positive impact on their teams, Maroney, Addai, Drew or DBrick? The backs did in every case. Thomas probably isn't as quick as DBrick in pass protection and DBrick got torn up repeatedly. Thomas was smart to skip the Senior Bowl and he's played this draft season nicely, but taking him over All Day is just another major setback for a franchise that wrote the book on major setbacks. Peterson wins football games, controls the clock, breaks huge plays and scores TDs. Thomas struggles to deal with the incredible DEs in the NFL for a year or two (like Walter Jones did) and the Browns remain the same whipping boy they already are.

Interesting. So you think that if the Browns draft AP that they can win THIS year?

 

[T Man]

If Detroit pulls Willis, Moss, and Ross out of the first day I will pee myself.

If Detroit pulled that off, I'd need a clean pair of shorts too.

One of my driving intentions with this mock was to work through how Detroit could best improve their defense, using that #2 pick. A lot of fans would like either Anderson or Adams. But like I wrote, I think they're much better off going Willis EVEN AS HIGH AS #2, then DE in the 2nd as opposed to the other way around.What do you think of Ross as the CB in the Cover 2? I think he'd be perfect. Just like Griffin (also from Texas) was for the Vikings in the 2nd round last year.I think the Lions trades could happen. The Bills/Vikings one is a stretch, but still plausible.

If Willis is the preferred target, I could see Detroit trying to fall back a little farther. Maybe to 7 or 8 (with a team hoping to jump up and snag Landry or Brown.

 

[Sammy3469]

FWIW the Peter King column today argues that there won't be many if any top 10 trades unless a team really wants someone....which I guess means someone could trade up for Johnson, but any other trade is very unlikey.

Also, McShay has an interesting column out today on drafting trends in general...in it he touched on many top OT being relative busts and the need to get 1st round QB talent and first day RB talent along with the recent trends of TEs and Ss becoming more valuable while DBs have become less valuable. I have no idea how that'll play out this year, but it may argue for some of the safeties getting bumped up over some of the DBs.

 

[Chaos Commish]

FWIW the Peter King column today argues that there won't be many if any top 10 trades unless a team really wants someone....which I guess means someone could trade up for Johnson, but any other trade is very unlikey. Also, McShay has an interesting column out today on drafting trends in general...in it he touched on many top OT being relative busts and the need to get 1st round QB talent and first day RB talent along with the recent trends of TEs and Ss becoming more valuable while DBs have become less valuable. I have no idea how that'll play out this year, but it may argue for some of the safeties getting bumped up over some of the DBs.

Link to McShay?

 

[Chaos Commish]

If Russell & CJ are gone in the first two picks, Thomas HAS to be the Browns pick.

I'm slowly getting onboard with the Parcell's OL philosophy of not drafting OLs early. DBrick had more hype than Thomas. Who had a bigger positive impact on their teams, Maroney, Addai, Drew or DBrick? The backs did in every case. Thomas probably isn't as quick as DBrick in pass protection and DBrick got torn up repeatedly. Thomas was smart to skip the Senior Bowl and he's played this draft season nicely, but taking him over All Day is just another major setback for a franchise that wrote the book on major setbacks. Peterson wins football games, controls the clock, breaks huge plays and scores TDs. Thomas struggles to deal with the incredible DEs in the NFL for a year or two (like Walter Jones did) and the Browns remain the same whipping boy they already are.

Interesting. So you think that if the Browns draft AP that they can win THIS year?

They are a better team with the stud RB than with the future stud OL, yes.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

If Russell & CJ are gone in the first two picks, Thomas HAS to be the Browns pick.

I'm slowly getting onboard with the Parcell's OL philosophy of not drafting OLs early. DBrick had more hype than Thomas. Who had a bigger positive impact on their teams, Maroney, Addai, Drew or DBrick? The backs did in every case. Thomas probably isn't as quick as DBrick in pass protection and DBrick got torn up repeatedly. Thomas was smart to skip the Senior Bowl and he's played this draft season nicely, but taking him over All Day is just another major setback for a franchise that wrote the book on major setbacks. Peterson wins football games, controls the clock, breaks huge plays and scores TDs. Thomas struggles to deal with the incredible DEs in the NFL for a year or two (like Walter Jones did) and the Browns remain the same whipping boy they already are.

Interesting. So you think that if the Browns draft AP that they can win THIS year?

They are a better team with the stud RB than with the future stud OL, yes.

I happen to agree, but am playing a bit of devils advocate here.Is the line good enough for Peterson to succeed behind?

 

[Sammy3469]

FWIW the Peter King column today argues that there won't be many if any top 10 trades unless a team really wants someone....which I guess means someone could trade up for Johnson, but any other trade is very unlikey.

Also, McShay has an interesting column out today on drafting trends in general...in it he touched on many top OT being relative busts and the need to get 1st round QB talent and first day RB talent along with the recent trends of TEs and Ss becoming more valuable while DBs have become less valuable. I have no idea how that'll play out this year, but it may argue for some of the safeties getting bumped up over some of the DBs.

Link to McShay?

It's in insider, but here's the link...linkHe basically runs through 10 points:

1. that OT is generally the safest pick for upper echelon talent though since 2004 teams have been much more picky with only Brown, Barron, and Ferguson in the first round.

2. Contrary to popular opinion, 90% of starting RBs are first day talents with 17 of the top 20 RBs last year being Day 1 draft picks....his conclusion is don't reach in the 1st round, but be sure to grab for the talent in the 2nd if you need it.

3. The closer you are to the ball (save RBs) the harder it is to project talent...the basic conclusion is that C, DT, WRs, and QBs are hard to predict and OT and LB are much safer

4. the evolution of the TE position and corresponding value of those guys which he thinks is justified has made S much more valuable which is good for Landry and Olsen

5. CB value has been greatly dimished with the hand-chuck rule...2006 only saw 12 corners come off the board in the 1st 4 rounds versus an average of close to 20 in the previous 2 years

6. In general, franchise QBs are only found in the 1st round, but there is a big chance for bust

7. Heisman QBs...who cares

8. In general one OG gets taken in the first round.

9 and 10 are useless for mocking.

so like I said, basically take a RB if you need him preferably in the second round....don't be afraid to take a premier TE or S in the 1st, you may want to stay away from uber-elite CB talent since the chuck-rule dimishes their value, if you need a franchise QB don't be thinking you'll be getting him in the second, take uber-elite OG before mid-tier OTs.

 

[Sabertooth]

-I dont see Lynch falling past GB. PR suicide for the Front Office. They have to realize that they have to acquire pieces to let Brett have one last shot. Lynch makes too much sense here.

What about the Packers offseason makes you think they are trying to foolishly give Brett "one last shot" They haven't picked up anybody at all and they are 21m under the cap? I think it's pretty obvious that Brett's one last shot was foiled in Philly during the infamous 4th & 26 play.The Packers front office has moved on from that foolish Mike Sherman era. They are trying to rebuild and will take the player that they feel most helps them long term. Now, that may very well be Lynch, but they most certainly will not do it for Brett Favre.

 

[Aaronstory]

-I dont see Lynch falling past GB. PR suicide for the Front Office. They have to realize that they have to acquire pieces to let Brett have one last shot. Lynch makes too much sense here.

What about the Packers offseason makes you think they are trying to foolishly give Brett "one last shot" They haven't picked up anybody at all and they are 21m under the cap? I think it's pretty obvious that Brett's one last shot was foiled in Philly during the infamous 4th & 26 play.The Packers front office has moved on from that foolish Mike Sherman era. They are trying to rebuild and will take the player that they feel most helps them long term. Now, that may very well be Lynch, but they most certainly will not do it for Brett Favre.

Damn

 

[Fallerjw]

If Russell & CJ are gone in the first two picks, Thomas HAS to be the Browns pick.

I'm slowly getting onboard with the Parcell's OL philosophy of not drafting OLs early. DBrick had more hype than Thomas. Who had a bigger positive impact on their teams, Maroney, Addai, Drew or DBrick? The backs did in every case. Thomas probably isn't as quick as DBrick in pass protection and DBrick got torn up repeatedly. Thomas was smart to skip the Senior Bowl and he's played this draft season nicely, but taking him over All Day is just another major setback for a franchise that wrote the book on major setbacks. Peterson wins football games, controls the clock, breaks huge plays and scores TDs. Thomas struggles to deal with the incredible DEs in the NFL for a year or two (like Walter Jones did) and the Browns remain the same whipping boy they already are.

It's interesting to see who you chose to "prove" your theory. Let's look a little closer:Maroney - Shows up on a probable Super Bowl contender with a RB coming off of a huge season and an All Pro type QB. Addai - Shows up on a probable Super Bowl contender with the best offense in football, and a QB who probably best knows how to call plays that suit him. Drew - Gets drafted by a team that was 12 - 4 the previous year, but went 8 -8 the year after drafting him. Gets paired with a verteran who put up almost 1400 combined yards. D'Brick - Get's drafted by a team that was 4 - 12 the year before, and went 10 - 6 the year after they drafted him. Helped 3 journeyman type backs rush for 15 rushing TDs. I'm not placing the credit or blame for the teams' seasons on just those players, but it's a big "reach" to say that Maroney, Addai or Drew had a bigger positive impact than D'Brick did. If you go by record improvement alone, D'Brick wins this hands down. I don't think it's fair to use that as the only criteria, but it seems like the one you were most interested in.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

5. CB value has been greatly dimished with the hand-chuck rule...2006 only saw 12 corners come off the board in the 1st 4 rounds versus an average of close to 20 in the previous 2 years

I find this one particularly interesting. I wonder if the new rule accelerated the acceptance of the Cover 2 type corner/philosophy.

 

[Chaos Commish]

If Russell & CJ are gone in the first two picks, Thomas HAS to be the Browns pick.

I'm slowly getting onboard with the Parcell's OL philosophy of not drafting OLs early. DBrick had more hype than Thomas. Who had a bigger positive impact on their teams, Maroney, Addai, Drew or DBrick? The backs did in every case. Thomas probably isn't as quick as DBrick in pass protection and DBrick got torn up repeatedly. Thomas was smart to skip the Senior Bowl and he's played this draft season nicely, but taking him over All Day is just another major setback for a franchise that wrote the book on major setbacks. Peterson wins football games, controls the clock, breaks huge plays and scores TDs. Thomas struggles to deal with the incredible DEs in the NFL for a year or two (like Walter Jones did) and the Browns remain the same whipping boy they already are.

It's interesting to see who you chose to "prove" your theory. Let's look a little closer:

Not really. I could have chosen Hawk and Ryans if I wanted. They had more positive impacts than DBrick too. I used RBs because AD is an RB. That was obvious, not devious. If you criticized me for skipping DeAngelo then that would have made sense. I thought about it, but why muddy the water with such a simple and obvious point? Good RBs produce immediately, most good LTs have some trouble.

... but it's a big "reach" to say that Maroney, Addai or Drew had a bigger positive impact than D'Brick did.

It's not a reach because it's a fact. D'Brick gave up more sacks than the converted TE that started at LT for the Jets the year before they drafted him. He had a rough rookie season. Struggled with NFL power rushers and was disappointing run blocking. It was a learning experience that many LTs go through. Hopefully he works out. The three backs all had very productive years with very little struggling if any. I suspect Thomas and Peterson will follow a similar pattern. This isn't a theory I am trying to prove. This is applying things learned from recent history to Parcell's philosophy of avoiding first round OLs.

 

[Chaos Commish]

5. CB value has been greatly dimished with the hand-chuck rule...2006 only saw 12 corners come off the board in the 1st 4 rounds versus an average of close to 20 in the previous 2 years

I find this one particularly interesting. I wonder if the new rule accelerated the acceptance of the Cover 2 type corner/philosophy.

I don't think 2006 is a big enough sample. Let's see this play out for a few years and go back a few more. I think quality CBs are as valuable as ever.