Antonio Gates...slipping in value? (1 Viewer)

[Silverstreak]

I was wondering in re-draft leagues if he's going to start falling on draft boards.

Has the TE position tightened back up in value?

With the maturity of Jackson, the addition of Chambers, LT outta the backfield AND getting his rushing touch's, not to mention IF turner sticks around (he's gonna get some touch's as well), does this by means of atrition reduce Gates value as, well, ahhhhh, back to being a "top flight" TE option instead of a TE drafted as a WR1 option???...curious

 

[Silverstreak]

...sorry boyz, meant to place this in the Asst Coach Forum...wrong button, my bad

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

...sorry boyz, meant to place this in the Asst Coach Forum...wrong button, my bad

Do you want it moved? I think it's a fine topic for either forum.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I do think that Gates loses some value with Chambers on board. Chambers became the go-to receiver for Rivers in many third-down situations toward the end of last year -- the kinds of situations where Gates had always been the go-to receiver before that.

 

[Silverstreak]

I pretty much sent it overthere, perhaps some wisdom may come from both forums, since it's already here...thanks for asking

 

[VICK-tory]

I will be all over Gates if he falls to the fourth round. He is a major weapon and more of a sure thing than any wide reciever at that price. Chambers doesnt hurt him at all

 

[Silverstreak]

Chambers came on board in week 5.

WEEKS 1-5; Gates most traget receiver each week.

WEEKS 6-17; Gates most targeted receiver 3 times, tied for most targets 3 times, 6 weeks OTHER receivers were targeted more, Chambers 5 times.

How can you say that Chambers WON'T affect Gates??? He will, question is how much...

 

[fantasyplayer]

I think Gates' decline in value is less about his situation and more about the emergence of other TEs in the league. You can get quality, consistent production from the 6th or 7th TE off the board. That hasn't always been the case.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Gates is a overvalued.

that being said, he'll be a top 4 tight end barring injury

 

[FTRWRTR]

Chambers came on board in week 5. WEEKS 1-5; Gates most traget receiver each week.WEEKS 6-17; Gates most targeted receiver 3 times, tied for most targets 3 times, 6 weeks OTHER receivers were targeted more, Chambers 5 times.How can you say that Chambers WON'T affect Gates??? He will, question is how much...

CC is a good wr and his presence will affect gates but IMO no where near as much as you think. As I pointed out in the asst. coach forum gates still finished with 1,044 yards and 9 TDs last season. I think gates' presence affects CC's production more than CC's affects gates' production because opponents double team gates leaving CC in single man coverage.

 

[FantasyTrader]

I think Gates' decline in value is less about his situation and more about the emergence of other TEs in the league. You can get quality, consistent production from the 6th or 7th TE off the board. That hasn't always been the case.

End of thread. Here's a little snippet I wrote on Gates a few weeks ago and I think it's still true:As a card carrying member of the "Gates Is A God" fan club this one is personally painful to me. When I look at the state of fantasy tight ends right now I flash back to a rock solid guest article we published by Scott Girasia back in July, "Is Gates a 3rd round pick?"At the time I wholeheartedly disagreed with Scott's assessment (The Cliff's Notes of his analysis was that the answer was NO). But when I'm wrong I say I...ummm, wasn't totally right. Beyond this season's stats (which saw Gates dethroned in his quest to 4-peat as #1 TE in most formats) are telltale signs that he is no longer in a tier of his own. As with many things FF, his drop in value has very little to do with Gates himself than does the "field's" improvement. Jason Witten, Kellen Winslow and Chris Cooley ALL solidified their positions in terms of "times targeted" for '08 and beyond. And a handful of other tight ends made a strong case for why they should be leaned on even more next year. Heath Miller, Donald Lee, Owen Daniels and Dallas Clark and Vernon Davis are all screaming "WE GOT NEXT!" Much of Gates' value until now has relied on the fact that by January you could rest assured that he would have more chances than his peers to score you points. Here's a quick rundown on the top 6 TE times-targeted weeks 1-16 (before Gates dislocated his toe):1) Gonzalez - 1462) Gates - 1063) Cooley - 1044) Shockey - 985) D. Clark - 966) Daniels - 91Now make no mistake about it. This groupie isn't telling you Gates is no longer the best TE in football (he is). But in '05-'07 there was justification for drafting Gates two full rounds ahead of every other tight end. That justification is gone now.

 

[DGB]

I think Gates' decline in value is less about his situation and more about the emergence of other TEs in the league. You can get quality, consistent production from the 6th or 7th TE off the board. That hasn't always been the case.

End of thread. Here's a little snippet I wrote on Gates a few weeks ago and I think it's still true:As a card carrying member of the "Gates Is A God" fan club this one is personally painful to me. When I look at the state of fantasy tight ends right now I flash back to a rock solid guest article we published by Scott Girasia back in July, "Is Gates a 3rd round pick?"

At the time I wholeheartedly disagreed with Scott's assessment (The Cliff's Notes of his analysis was that the answer was NO). But when I'm wrong I say I...ummm, wasn't totally right.

Beyond this season's stats (which saw Gates dethroned in his quest to 4-peat as #1 TE in most formats) are telltale signs that he is no longer in a tier of his own. As with many things FF, his drop in value has very little to do with Gates himself than does the "field's" improvement.

Jason Witten, Kellen Winslow and Chris Cooley ALL solidified their positions in terms of "times targeted" for '08 and beyond. And a handful of other tight ends made a strong case for why they should be leaned on even more next year. Heath Miller, Donald Lee, Owen Daniels and Dallas Clark and Vernon Davis are all screaming "WE GOT NEXT!" Much of Gates' value until now has relied on the fact that by January you could rest assured that he would have more chances than his peers to score you points.

Here's a quick rundown on the top 6 TE times-targeted weeks 1-16 (before Gates dislocated his toe):

1) Gonzalez - 146

2) Gates - 106

3) Cooley - 104

4) Shockey - 98

5) D. Clark - 96

6) Daniels - 91

Now make no mistake about it. This groupie isn't telling you Gates is no longer the best TE in football (he is). But in '05-'07 there was justification for drafting Gates two full rounds ahead of every other tight end. That justification is gone now.

Excellent post.

 

[DoubleG]

I do think that Gates loses some value with Chambers on board. Chambers became the go-to receiver for Rivers in many third-down situations toward the end of last year -- the kinds of situations where Gates had always been the go-to receiver before that.

And, ironically, that very fact is what lead to the struggles of Rivers and the Chargers at points during the year last year. When Gates and LT are the foccus of the offense, things seem to run more smoothly for SD - it's when Rivers thinks he's Tom Brady or Manning and starts forcing the ball deep and to his WRs too much, that the offense stalls, they turn the ball over, etc. I actually think as Rivers matures, and starts to realize that fact, that Gates' value will creep back up - not as high as it was in 2005-2006, but slightly better than the second half of 2007.

 

[super sleeper]

As a Gates owner in a keep 5 league, I've already decided to shop him around this year in a TE heavy league. This is mostly because of the increased value of other TEs. I do wonder, though, if given a full preseason to design an offense that incorporates all the weapons, Gates doesn't re-emerge as more of a go-to receiver. Gates was banged up for most of the second half of the season, so the offense seemed to lean on Chambers (and Jackson) more. I hate to think I might sell low on Gates and be stuck with an underperforming Clark or Witten. Gates covered for alot of lineup holes over the last 3 years.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I know he had injury issues, but during the last 8 weeks of Sand Diego's season he had 200 total yards and 1 TD. Think Chambers and the immergence of VJ certainly hurt him some. He's still #1 imo but the gap is nil now.

 

[FantasyTrader]

I know he had injury issues, but during the last 8 weeks of Sand Diego's season he had 200 total yards and 1 TD. Think Chambers and the immergence of VJ certainly hurt him some. He's still #1 imo but the gap is nil now.

Agreed. If I had to guess right now how it will play out in most fantasy drafts this year, I think Gates will last to mid/late round 4. At that point there will be a massive run on top-tier TE's immediately thereafter where Gonzalez, Witten, Cooley, Daniels, Shockey and Lee fly off the board. I think most drafts will have a 7-8 tight end run in a single round.

 

[trader jake]

I know he had injury issues

This seems to be slipping under the radar. The Antonio Gates we watched throughout a majority of the 2nd half of the season was NOT the same player we've seen over the past five seasons. His injured toe was a major reason his production decreased down the stretch...more that Chambers, o-line issues, or any other factor. Unless that injury lingers into this season (haven't read anything that suggests it will) I don't see why he would put up less than 900+ yards and 9+ TD's. Solid 3rd round territory in TE mandatory redraft leagues.

 

[Da Guru]

In my 14 team league Gates went in the middle of the third. I took Chris Cooley early in the 8th. With Witten, Watson, Cooley, a healthy Heap, Shockey?? I can`t see Gates going that early again.

Of course the farther he drops the better value. With LT on the decline Gates maybe in store for a big year in 08.

 

[broncofan13000]

I think Gates' decline in value is less about his situation and more about the emergence of other TEs in the league. You can get quality, consistent production from the 6th or 7th TE off the board. That hasn't always been the case.

End of thread. Here's a little snippet I wrote on Gates a few weeks ago and I think it's still true:As a card carrying member of the "Gates Is A God" fan club this one is personally painful to me. When I look at the state of fantasy tight ends right now I flash back to a rock solid guest article we published by Scott Girasia back in July, "Is Gates a 3rd round pick?"

At the time I wholeheartedly disagreed with Scott's assessment (The Cliff's Notes of his analysis was that the answer was NO). But when I'm wrong I say I...ummm, wasn't totally right.

Beyond this season's stats (which saw Gates dethroned in his quest to 4-peat as #1 TE in most formats) are telltale signs that he is no longer in a tier of his own. As with many things FF, his drop in value has very little to do with Gates himself than does the "field's" improvement.

Jason Witten, Kellen Winslow and Chris Cooley ALL solidified their positions in terms of "times targeted" for '08 and beyond. And a handful of other tight ends made a strong case for why they should be leaned on even more next year. Heath Miller, Donald Lee, Owen Daniels and Dallas Clark and Vernon Davis are all screaming "WE GOT NEXT!" Much of Gates' value until now has relied on the fact that by January you could rest assured that he would have more chances than his peers to score you points.

Here's a quick rundown on the top 6 TE times-targeted weeks 1-16 (before Gates dislocated his toe):

1) Gonzalez - 146

2) Gates - 106

3) Cooley - 104

4) Shockey - 98

5) D. Clark - 96

6) Daniels - 91

Now make no mistake about it. This groupie isn't telling you Gates is no longer the best TE in football (he is). But in '05-'07 there was justification for drafting Gates two full rounds ahead of every other tight end. That justification is gone now.

Agreed. I dealt him a couple weeks ago thinking the same thing. He is still the best TE, but the Wittens and Winslows of the FF world are almost as good.

 

[chidoy]

Agreed. I dealt him a couple weeks ago thinking the same thing. He is still the best TE, but the Wittens and Winslows of the FF world are almost as good.

As a Gates fan, I would say Witten and KWII have passed him. Their numbers have been ridiculous even with stud WR's like T.O. and Braylon. Sure Gates is top 4-5 but IMHO, better value could be had in later rounds. I can see Witten and KWII being taken before Gates now. I personally would take either one of those two before Gates in 08'.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Agreed. I dealt him a couple weeks ago thinking the same thing. He is still the best TE, but the Wittens and Winslows of the FF world are almost as good.

As a Gates fan, I would say Witten and KWII have passed him. Their numbers have been ridiculous even with stud WR's like T.O. and Braylon. Sure Gates is top 4-5 but IMHO, better value could be had in later rounds. I can see Witten and KWII being taken before Gates now. I personally would take either one of those two before Gates in 08'.

I'd be hesitant to say anyone has passed him. As the back2back2back #1 TE in fantasy football I'm inclined to cut Gates some slack in the first year he's been a starting TE in the league and NOT ended up the top fantasy TE. I think he's still very much the best TE in the league - you'll get no argument from me that the gap has closed however.

 

[BoltBacker]

Two things;

- People seem fixated on the toe injury in the first round of the playoffs but nobody has mentioned the hamstring and back injuries before that. It was aggravated vs TEN but even though he finished that game(and had the game winning TD for that matter) most of the game he was obviously hobbled when running. The toe injury was just the last injury.

- I'm with MT in that Rivers tended to target Chambers often in third down situations. Another point I'd like to make with regard to Chambers contributions are the areas of the field Chambers was doing damage. When they traded for Chambers I assumed he's be used primarily as a deep threat to open things up for Tomlinson/Gates underneath but I was really surprised not only did Chambers go over the middle a lot but he was very reliable going over the middle. If he continues working that part of the field I don't see how Gates wouldn't be impacted negatively from a statistical stand point unless an injury to Tomlinson forced a lot more attempts by Rivers.

All said I'd absolutely take Witten over Gates right now but until we know more about the CLE QB situation I wouldn't take WinslowII before him. Gonzo has a lot of "?" about that KC offense + he's 32. If something sets back Harrison I think you might add Clark to the conversation but I don't really understand the folks that wouldn't put Gates in their top 3 outside of Harrison retiring/missing time.

1) Witten

2a/2b) Gates(lower risk/lower reward)/Winslow(higher risk/higher reward)