Not only is it ridiculous to consider using a #1 pick on Gates in redraft, (your leaguemates will cheer) but now more than ever the TE position as a whole is not that important. There are at least 10 TE's that can get you comparable numbers. Last year a lot of folks blew high picks on Dallas Clark, Gates, Finley, and the guys that picked up Tamme made out like bandits. The TE position back in the days when only Gonzales was the man had a bigger dropoff in tiers. But nowadays, it's a crapshoot, and you can get stud production for TE's selected in the 10th round. I'll let someone else overpay for Gates.
While I agree that Gates isn't a 1st round pick, I don't agree with what you're posting here at all.People have been selling this "there are tons of TEs that can get comparable numbers" for the last 6 years or so. The likelihood that there will be several TEs with similar numbers is high, the problem is knowing which ones they are. For everyone that nailed Dallas Clark four years ago a dozen other people swung and missed on Todd Heap and LJ Smith and Kellen Winslow and Jeremy Shockey and a ton of others. That's where Gates has value over those guys. You might find a TE in the 10th that puts up top 5 numbers, or you might get LJ Smith (and the latter is much more likely).And Tamme is a TERRIBLE example. An injury replacement on one of the league's best offenses isn't something you go into the season counting on. That's like saying that drafting a RB early is pointless because people made out like a bandit with LJ a few years ago when Priest got hurt, or pick and choose any of a gajillion other examples at other positions.The difference between TE1 and TE10 last year was 7.3 points per game. At RB it was 7.0 points per game, and at WR it was 2.7 points per game. So it's not like there's only a marginal difference between the top 10 TEs.If we assume Gates was an outlier last year, the results are basically the same. TE2 vs TE10 was 3.1. RB2 vs RB10 was 3.0, and at WR it was 2.6.And again, that's all assuming you even pick the right guy into that 5-10 range, which is unlikely.Even Finley and VD aren't immune. They could just as easily be another in a long list of guys that joined the "sure-thing" top 3 TE list. Todd Heap, Jeremy Shockey, Brent Celek, Kellen Winslow, Chris Cooley and others all spent time in that class.
While Gates was on a torrid pace last year before he got hurt, and he helped owners jump out to some early wins, what did he do for those who counted on him during the playoffs or championships? Even a superstar like Gates is human, and can’t sustain that pace for long. The body eventually will break down. He’s still elite, but he is now almost 31 years old. I’d still pick him as the #1 TE in fantasy, but not in the first round, and likely below his inflated ADP. To give some perspective, I was a Gates owner every year he has been in the league, even drafting him in the late rounds when he was still a relative unknown. Each year, it would take a 3rd round pick to get him. He was the old standby on all my redraft teams and a personal favorite. He still is. I love me some Gates. But last year, in both my leagues, I passed on Gates (in the 4th) grabbing Hakeem Nicks instead and later drafting tandem TE’s in both leagues: (Z. Miller/T. Heap) in one and (Winslow/Pettigrew) in the other. Gates was inactive during the FF playoffs while Miller and Winslow had terrific games during the championship week of the playoffs. Gates owners who were still in the playoffs (very few) were scrambling to pick up a fill-in TE. Every year I had picked Gates, it was “close but no cigar”. Last year, the first time I have no Gates on any team...and I win two championships in two leagues played. Coincidence? Maybe…Gates is the best TE in football, no question. There are a number of other TE’s out there who could put up good stats, (albeit not as consistent as Gates) to help your FF team stay competitive. In my opinion, Gates where he is picked, at his age and injury history, is a bit of a luxury. The PPG difference between Gates and others is considerable (and noted), but how is that going to be a difference maker if he is hurt when you need him in the FF playoffs? There are cheaper ways of mitigating risk at the position, while freeing up a valuable 3rd rounder to pick a stud WR or RB you couldn’t get later.
I had a similar reaction to Raiderfan's post, but wasn't sure what the numbers would show.
