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Antwaan Randle El - possible sleeper value? (1 Viewer)

T Bell

Footballguy
In Zorn's presser today, he was asked about Antwaan Randle El's return from injury and anticipated production.

The questions on Randle El began at 1:38 of the video which is still up as I type this at redskins.com, but the critical question came at 2:36. Essentially it was, "He caught 51 passes last year, a career high, but how productive could he be in this scheme," to which Zorn replied, "He'll catch more than 51 balls this year."

He went on to joke a little about that answer, but the bottom line is that you've got the play-caller of the 'Skins predicting what amounts to 4+ receptions per game for Randle El.

That's some fantasy value right there, especially when the only competition for those catches are TE's, Santana Moss, two injured rookie WR's missing reps in preseason, and two more special teams WR's (Thrash and Mix) who don't figure into many of the offensive game plans. That got my attention.

Randle El, of course, was the guy who caught that pretty TD pass from Campbell in the HoF game on Sunday, running a crossing pattern underneath Moss into the corner of the end zone. This situation is something to watch.

EDIT - sorry for the opening sentence fragment.

 
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I grabbed him with the 18.12 (216) pick in No Mercy this year as my WR7. I thought I got great value with this Mr. Irrelevant selection. I also have Campbell as my QB2. They looked like they were clicking on Sunday night.

If you can get him late and cheap, I think he will be a great value to those who select him.

 
Absolutely he is a sleeper. He will be playing the same role Engram plays in Seattle and he is more of a play maker than Engram. He just needs to stay healthy.

 
I had given up on him once they spend the picks on the 2 WR's and Fred Davis. Now that the two rooks have lingering injuries and apparently came to camp in bad shape I put ARE back on my radar.

I'm glad you posted Zorns comments because I feel that does make him a solid sleeper candidate.

 
He actually played well last year. Just never had the fantasy stats to prove it. I expect same this year. Nice late round bye replacement to have on your team. They didn't spend there hi draft picks on three highly touted receivers for the heck of it.

 
He actually played well last year. Just never had the fantasy stats to prove it. I expect same this year. Nice late round bye replacement to have on your team. They didn't spend there hi draft picks on three highly touted receivers for the heck of it.
I think they are a year away from having those rookies (including TE Fred Davis) factor heavily into the passing game, not only because they're rookies, but because two of them - Thomas and Kelly - have lost important reps in camp due to injury, and because Moss and Randle El are good WR's if they're healthy, especially when matched with Cooley. The play here with Randle El may be to pick him up, ride him through your bye week problems, and then sell high in anticipation of Kelly and Thomas taking more of the catches next year and beyond. Also, don't forget that Randle El figures to handle at least some of the PR duties, which might be a bonus for you in terms of value.
 
What about Santana Moss? I'd like to hear any Redskin homers chime in on him. I think he can thrive in a WCO that is predicated on three step drops. Moss seems like an ideal fit for Zorn's offense.

 
In Zorn's presser today, he was asked about Antwaan Randle El's return from injury and anticipated production. The questions on Randle El began at 1:38 of the video which is still up as I type this at redskins.com, but the critical question came at 2:36. Essentially it was, "He caught 51 passes last year, a career high, but how productive could he be in this scheme," to which Zorn replied, "He'll catch more than 51 balls this year." He went on to joke a little about that answer, but the bottom line is that you've got the play-caller of the 'Skins predicting what amounts to 4+ receptions per game for Randle El. That's some fantasy value right there, especially when the only competition for those catches are TE's, Santana Moss, two injured rookie WR's missing reps in preseason, and two more special teams WR's (Thrash and Mix) who don't figure into many of the offensive game plans. That got my attention. Randle El, of course, was the guy who caught that pretty TD pass from Campbell in the HoF game on Sunday, running a crossing pattern underneath Moss into the corner of the end zone. This situation is something to watch.EDIT - sorry for the opening sentence fragment.
I don't disagree that Randle El may be a decent value, but how do you get 4+ receptions from "more than 51 balls this year"? Are you expecting him to miss 3+ games? Or are you just assuming that more than 51 equates to 64+?
 
In Zorn's presser today, he was asked about Antwaan Randle El's return from injury and anticipated production. The questions on Randle El began at 1:38 of the video which is still up as I type this at redskins.com, but the critical question came at 2:36. Essentially it was, "He caught 51 passes last year, a career high, but how productive could he be in this scheme," to which Zorn replied, "He'll catch more than 51 balls this year." He went on to joke a little about that answer, but the bottom line is that you've got the play-caller of the 'Skins predicting what amounts to 4+ receptions per game for Randle El. That's some fantasy value right there, especially when the only competition for those catches are TE's, Santana Moss, two injured rookie WR's missing reps in preseason, and two more special teams WR's (Thrash and Mix) who don't figure into many of the offensive game plans. That got my attention. Randle El, of course, was the guy who caught that pretty TD pass from Campbell in the HoF game on Sunday, running a crossing pattern underneath Moss into the corner of the end zone. This situation is something to watch.EDIT - sorry for the opening sentence fragment.
I don't disagree that Randle El may be a decent value, but how do you get 4+ receptions from "more than 51 balls this year"? Are you expecting him to miss 3+ games? Or are you just assuming that more than 51 equates to 64+?
Unless you think that Zorn is making this sort of statement about 54 as opposed to 51 catches which seems silly to me, I would expect this as a practical matter means more than 60 catches, which computes to ~4 per game.
 
What about Santana Moss? I'd like to hear any Redskin homers chime in on him. I think he can thrive in a WCO that is predicated on three step drops. Moss seems like an ideal fit for Zorn's offense.
I think Moss can blow up. His big seasons have not been flukes in terms of talent. He's absolutely the real deal when he's healthy, but it's always his legs that seem to have problems. By all accounts he's healthy this year. In that offense, Moss is the primary guy for fantasy purposes, but this statement today about ARE means that the division between the two in terms of anticipated production (with the usual caveats as to health) is less now than it's ever been. If he remains healthy and Campbell continues to settle nicely into this offense, I can easily see 80 catches out of Moss this year.
 
this zorn fellow got a complete playbook yet...gotta love skin fans... :X

edit to add...if jason finishes the year last year they dont even make the playoffs...i guess el is a nice sleeper...i would imagine the skins down alot this season(and next)(unless you ask skin fans)...so yea..el would be a decent late pick....

 
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this zorn fellow got a complete playbook yet...gotta love skin fans... :rolleyes:edit to add...if jason finishes the year last year they dont even make the playoffs...i guess el is a nice sleeper...i would imagine the skins down alot this season(and next)(unless you ask skin fans)...so yea..el would be a decent late pick....
Who gets more catches this year, the 'Skins or the 'boys #2 WR?
 
In Zorn's presser today, he was asked about Antwaan Randle El's return from injury and anticipated production. The questions on Randle El began at 1:38 of the video which is still up as I type this at redskins.com, but the critical question came at 2:36. Essentially it was, "He caught 51 passes last year, a career high, but how productive could he be in this scheme," to which Zorn replied, "He'll catch more than 51 balls this year." He went on to joke a little about that answer, but the bottom line is that you've got the play-caller of the 'Skins predicting what amounts to 4+ receptions per game for Randle El. That's some fantasy value right there, especially when the only competition for those catches are TE's, Santana Moss, two injured rookie WR's missing reps in preseason, and two more special teams WR's (Thrash and Mix) who don't figure into many of the offensive game plans. That got my attention. Randle El, of course, was the guy who caught that pretty TD pass from Campbell in the HoF game on Sunday, running a crossing pattern underneath Moss into the corner of the end zone. This situation is something to watch.EDIT - sorry for the opening sentence fragment.
I don't disagree that Randle El may be a decent value, but how do you get 4+ receptions from "more than 51 balls this year"? Are you expecting him to miss 3+ games? Or are you just assuming that more than 51 equates to 64+?
Unless you think that Zorn is making this sort of statement about 54 as opposed to 51 catches which seems silly to me, I would expect this as a practical matter means more than 60 catches, which computes to ~4 per game.
OK, it might sound like splitting hairs, but if Randle El's career high was 51, 64+ is at least 25% beyond his previous best. That's not trivial.How about this. Can you post a breakdown of projections for Washington? Here's a strawman.Last year, they attempted 525 passes and completed 319. The attempts were 20th in the league. Let's bump it up to 550 and assume the same completion percentage (60.8%). That yields 334 completions.Last year, the RBs had 85. Holding the percentage steady would yield 89.Last year, the TEs had 74. Holding the percentage steady would yield 77. However, they have added Fred Davis. Let's call it 85.That leaves 160 total for the WRs.Last year, the WRs broke down like this:Moss - 61Randle El - 51McCardell - 22Caldwell - 15Thrash - 9Lloyd - 2They have added Thomas and Kelly and dropped McCardell, Caldwell, and Lloyd. I assume at this point Thomas will return from his current injury. Kelly is supposed to also be back.How about this:Moss - 60Randle El - 50Thomas - 20Kelly - 20Thrash - 10So even with 25 (almost 5%) more attempts, here is a strawman that limits Randle El to 50 catches. I'm sure there are plenty of alternatives, so I'd like to see someone propose how Randle El is going to get 64+ catches. Are the Redskins attempting more than 550 passes? Who is getting fewer catches than what I posted above?
 
If he remains healthy and Campbell continues to settle nicely into this offense, I can easily see 80 catches out of Moss this year.
Please see my strawman and explain how you see this happening.I'm not calling you out, just interested in how people see the overall passing game shaking out. I think it's much easier to throw out numbers for individuals when thinking only of them and not of the entire passing game.
 
In Zorn's presser today, he was asked about Antwaan Randle El's return from injury and anticipated production. The questions on Randle El began at 1:38 of the video which is still up as I type this at redskins.com, but the critical question came at 2:36. Essentially it was, "He caught 51 passes last year, a career high, but how productive could he be in this scheme," to which Zorn replied, "He'll catch more than 51 balls this year." He went on to joke a little about that answer, but the bottom line is that you've got the play-caller of the 'Skins predicting what amounts to 4+ receptions per game for Randle El. That's some fantasy value right there, especially when the only competition for those catches are TE's, Santana Moss, two injured rookie WR's missing reps in preseason, and two more special teams WR's (Thrash and Mix) who don't figure into many of the offensive game plans. That got my attention. Randle El, of course, was the guy who caught that pretty TD pass from Campbell in the HoF game on Sunday, running a crossing pattern underneath Moss into the corner of the end zone. This situation is something to watch.EDIT - sorry for the opening sentence fragment.
I don't disagree that Randle El may be a decent value, but how do you get 4+ receptions from "more than 51 balls this year"? Are you expecting him to miss 3+ games? Or are you just assuming that more than 51 equates to 64+?
Unless you think that Zorn is making this sort of statement about 54 as opposed to 51 catches which seems silly to me, I would expect this as a practical matter means more than 60 catches, which computes to ~4 per game.
OK, it might sound like splitting hairs, but if Randle El's career high was 51, 64+ is at least 25% beyond his previous best. That's not trivial.How about this. Can you post a breakdown of projections for Washington? Here's a strawman.Last year, they attempted 525 passes and completed 319. The attempts were 20th in the league. Let's bump it up to 550 and assume the same completion percentage (60.8%). That yields 334 completions.Last year, the RBs had 85. Holding the percentage steady would yield 89.Last year, the TEs had 74. Holding the percentage steady would yield 77. However, they have added Fred Davis. Let's call it 85.That leaves 160 total for the WRs.Last year, the WRs broke down like this:Moss - 61Randle El - 51McCardell - 22Caldwell - 15Thrash - 9Lloyd - 2They have added Thomas and Kelly and dropped McCardell, Caldwell, and Lloyd. I assume at this point Thomas will return from his current injury. Kelly is supposed to also be back.How about this:Moss - 60Randle El - 50Thomas - 20Kelly - 20Thrash - 10So even with 25 (almost 5%) more attempts, here is a strawman that limits Randle El to 50 catches. I'm sure there are plenty of alternatives, so I'd like to see someone propose how Randle El is going to get 64+ catches. Are the Redskins attempting more than 550 passes? Who is getting fewer catches than what I posted above?
Last year, 550 was about the median number of pass attempts in the NFL. The 'Skins ranked 20th in pass attempts, with 525. Gibbs had the offense going way conservative, but after Campbell went down it opened up a bit with Collins. Zorn is from Holmgren's school of West Coast Offense. This offense uses shorter passes than Gibbs' offense used, and that will mean a higher completion %, and therefore more receptions. I personally believe that Campbell is turning out to be better suited to this looser, rhythm-based passing game than he was to the more regimented, rigidly controlled Gibbs-Saunders offense. I think Campbell figures to have ~63% completion this year. The Seahawks had 590 pass attempts last year, but with injuries to the Seahawks running backs last year I expect the Redskins to be able to rely upon the run more, however I also think the 'Skins will play with fewer leads than the Seahawks did. I'd expect the 'Skins to throw maybe 560 times, and assuming a 63% completion rate that means that the team should pull down 353 catches. If I assume that 80 go to Moss and 65 go to Randle El, that's over 200 receptions to spread around between Cooley (who I'd figure to get around 65), Portis, Davis, and the remaining WR's. I see that as being reasonable, again, if indeed I'm right about the direction this offense. I personally think this is going to end up being a lost year for Thomas and Kelly. They may produce a little late in the year, but I don't see them taking a lot of passes away from the others.To finish the thought in terms of receptions:Moss- 80Cooley- 65Randle El - 65Portis - 40Thrash - 25 (Zorn loves Thrash, who has quietly proven valuable on 3rd downs)Davis - 25Kelly - 20Thomas - 20Betts - 15That should total up to around 353
 
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In Zorn's presser today, he was asked about Antwaan Randle El's return from injury and anticipated production. The questions on Randle El began at 1:38 of the video which is still up as I type this at redskins.com, but the critical question came at 2:36. Essentially it was, "He caught 51 passes last year, a career high, but how productive could he be in this scheme," to which Zorn replied, "He'll catch more than 51 balls this year." He went on to joke a little about that answer, but the bottom line is that you've got the play-caller of the 'Skins predicting what amounts to 4+ receptions per game for Randle El. That's some fantasy value right there, especially when the only competition for those catches are TE's, Santana Moss, two injured rookie WR's missing reps in preseason, and two more special teams WR's (Thrash and Mix) who don't figure into many of the offensive game plans. That got my attention. Randle El, of course, was the guy who caught that pretty TD pass from Campbell in the HoF game on Sunday, running a crossing pattern underneath Moss into the corner of the end zone. This situation is something to watch.EDIT - sorry for the opening sentence fragment.
I don't disagree that Randle El may be a decent value, but how do you get 4+ receptions from "more than 51 balls this year"? Are you expecting him to miss 3+ games? Or are you just assuming that more than 51 equates to 64+?
Unless you think that Zorn is making this sort of statement about 54 as opposed to 51 catches which seems silly to me, I would expect this as a practical matter means more than 60 catches, which computes to ~4 per game.
OK, it might sound like splitting hairs, but if Randle El's career high was 51, 64+ is at least 25% beyond his previous best. That's not trivial.How about this. Can you post a breakdown of projections for Washington? Here's a strawman.Last year, they attempted 525 passes and completed 319. The attempts were 20th in the league. Let's bump it up to 550 and assume the same completion percentage (60.8%). That yields 334 completions.Last year, the RBs had 85. Holding the percentage steady would yield 89.Last year, the TEs had 74. Holding the percentage steady would yield 77. However, they have added Fred Davis. Let's call it 85.That leaves 160 total for the WRs.Last year, the WRs broke down like this:Moss - 61Randle El - 51McCardell - 22Caldwell - 15Thrash - 9Lloyd - 2They have added Thomas and Kelly and dropped McCardell, Caldwell, and Lloyd. I assume at this point Thomas will return from his current injury. Kelly is supposed to also be back.How about this:Moss - 60Randle El - 50Thomas - 20Kelly - 20Thrash - 10So even with 25 (almost 5%) more attempts, here is a strawman that limits Randle El to 50 catches. I'm sure there are plenty of alternatives, so I'd like to see someone propose how Randle El is going to get 64+ catches. Are the Redskins attempting more than 550 passes? Who is getting fewer catches than what I posted above?
Last year, 550 was about the median number of pass attempts in the NFL. The 'Skins ranked 20th in pass attempts, with 525. Gibbs had the offense going way conservative, but after Campbell went down it opened up a bit with Collins. Zorn is from Holmgren's school of West Coast Offense. This offense uses shorter passes than Gibbs' offense used, and that will mean a higher completion %, and therefore more receptions. I personally believe that Campbell is turning out to be better suited to this looser, rhythm-based passing game than he was to the more regimented, rigidly controlled Gibbs-Saunders offense. I think Campbell figures to have ~63% completion this year. The Seahawks had 590 pass attempts last year, but with injuries to the Seahawks running backs last year I expect the Redskins to be able to rely upon the run more, however I also think the 'Skins will play with fewer leads than the Seahawks did. I'd expect the 'Skins to throw maybe 560 times, and assuming a 63% completion rate that means that the team should pull down 353 catches. If I assume that 80 go to Moss and 65 go to Randle El, that's over 200 receptions to spread around between Cooley (who I'd figure to get around 65), Portis, Davis, and the remaining WR's. I see that as being reasonable, again, if indeed I'm right about the direction this offense. I personally think this is going to end up being a lost year for Thomas and Kelly. They may produce a little late in the year, but I don't see them taking a lot of passes away from the others.To finish the thought in terms of receptions:Moss- 80Cooley- 65Randle El - 65Portis - 40Thrash - 25 (Zorn loves Thrash, who has quietly proven valuable on 3rd downs)Davis - 25Kelly - 20Thomas - 20Betts - 15That should total up to around 353
That totals to 355. The biggest difference from last year is you are showing the Redskins RBs going from 85 receptions to 55. Big drop there. Interestingly, Seattle RBs had 86 receptions last season. I'm thinking your breakdown is shorting the RBs. If you have to pull 20 receptions from somewhere else for the RBs, where are they coming from?
 
In Zorn's presser today, he was asked about Antwaan Randle El's return from injury and anticipated production. The questions on Randle El began at 1:38 of the video which is still up as I type this at redskins.com, but the critical question came at 2:36. Essentially it was, "He caught 51 passes last year, a career high, but how productive could he be in this scheme," to which Zorn replied, "He'll catch more than 51 balls this year." He went on to joke a little about that answer, but the bottom line is that you've got the play-caller of the 'Skins predicting what amounts to 4+ receptions per game for Randle El. That's some fantasy value right there, especially when the only competition for those catches are TE's, Santana Moss, two injured rookie WR's missing reps in preseason, and two more special teams WR's (Thrash and Mix) who don't figure into many of the offensive game plans. That got my attention. Randle El, of course, was the guy who caught that pretty TD pass from Campbell in the HoF game on Sunday, running a crossing pattern underneath Moss into the corner of the end zone. This situation is something to watch.EDIT - sorry for the opening sentence fragment.
I don't disagree that Randle El may be a decent value, but how do you get 4+ receptions from "more than 51 balls this year"? Are you expecting him to miss 3+ games? Or are you just assuming that more than 51 equates to 64+?
Unless you think that Zorn is making this sort of statement about 54 as opposed to 51 catches which seems silly to me, I would expect this as a practical matter means more than 60 catches, which computes to ~4 per game.
OK, it might sound like splitting hairs, but if Randle El's career high was 51, 64+ is at least 25% beyond his previous best. That's not trivial.How about this. Can you post a breakdown of projections for Washington? Here's a strawman.Last year, they attempted 525 passes and completed 319. The attempts were 20th in the league. Let's bump it up to 550 and assume the same completion percentage (60.8%). That yields 334 completions.Last year, the RBs had 85. Holding the percentage steady would yield 89.Last year, the TEs had 74. Holding the percentage steady would yield 77. However, they have added Fred Davis. Let's call it 85.That leaves 160 total for the WRs.Last year, the WRs broke down like this:Moss - 61Randle El - 51McCardell - 22Caldwell - 15Thrash - 9Lloyd - 2They have added Thomas and Kelly and dropped McCardell, Caldwell, and Lloyd. I assume at this point Thomas will return from his current injury. Kelly is supposed to also be back.How about this:Moss - 60Randle El - 50Thomas - 20Kelly - 20Thrash - 10So even with 25 (almost 5%) more attempts, here is a strawman that limits Randle El to 50 catches. I'm sure there are plenty of alternatives, so I'd like to see someone propose how Randle El is going to get 64+ catches. Are the Redskins attempting more than 550 passes? Who is getting fewer catches than what I posted above?
Last year, 550 was about the median number of pass attempts in the NFL. The 'Skins ranked 20th in pass attempts, with 525. Gibbs had the offense going way conservative, but after Campbell went down it opened up a bit with Collins. Zorn is from Holmgren's school of West Coast Offense. This offense uses shorter passes than Gibbs' offense used, and that will mean a higher completion %, and therefore more receptions. I personally believe that Campbell is turning out to be better suited to this looser, rhythm-based passing game than he was to the more regimented, rigidly controlled Gibbs-Saunders offense. I think Campbell figures to have ~63% completion this year. The Seahawks had 590 pass attempts last year, but with injuries to the Seahawks running backs last year I expect the Redskins to be able to rely upon the run more, however I also think the 'Skins will play with fewer leads than the Seahawks did. I'd expect the 'Skins to throw maybe 560 times, and assuming a 63% completion rate that means that the team should pull down 353 catches. If I assume that 80 go to Moss and 65 go to Randle El, that's over 200 receptions to spread around between Cooley (who I'd figure to get around 65), Portis, Davis, and the remaining WR's. I see that as being reasonable, again, if indeed I'm right about the direction this offense. I personally think this is going to end up being a lost year for Thomas and Kelly. They may produce a little late in the year, but I don't see them taking a lot of passes away from the others.To finish the thought in terms of receptions:Moss- 80Cooley- 65Randle El - 65Portis - 40Thrash - 25 (Zorn loves Thrash, who has quietly proven valuable on 3rd downs)Davis - 25Kelly - 20Thomas - 20Betts - 15That should total up to around 353
That totals to 355. The biggest difference from last year is you are showing the Redskins RBs going from 85 receptions to 55. Big drop there. Interestingly, Seattle RBs had 86 receptions last season. I'm thinking your breakdown is shorting the RBs. If you have to pull 20 receptions from somewhere else for the RBs, where are they coming from?
This offense isn't Seattle's. Why do I "have to pull 20 receptions from somewhere else"? I'll tell you the guys whose numbers are the most in flux, meaning I'm more flexible on them: everyone listed below Portis on that list, and I could certainly see Portis' catches go up by as much as 10. Thrash could have as few as 10 catches, or as many as ~35 depending upon how things play out. I doubt Davis would have more than 25, but I could see him having fewer. Thomas and Kelly could have as few as maybe 15, or as many as 30. That's where I see the greatest amount of flexibility based upon how things play out, but for now I'm inclined to take Zorn at his word when he says that Randle El figures to exceed his career high production from last year.
 
In Zorn's presser today, he was asked about Antwaan Randle El's return from injury and anticipated production. The questions on Randle El began at 1:38 of the video which is still up as I type this at redskins.com, but the critical question came at 2:36. Essentially it was, "He caught 51 passes last year, a career high, but how productive could he be in this scheme," to which Zorn replied, "He'll catch more than 51 balls this year." He went on to joke a little about that answer, but the bottom line is that you've got the play-caller of the 'Skins predicting what amounts to 4+ receptions per game for Randle El. That's some fantasy value right there, especially when the only competition for those catches are TE's, Santana Moss, two injured rookie WR's missing reps in preseason, and two more special teams WR's (Thrash and Mix) who don't figure into many of the offensive game plans. That got my attention. Randle El, of course, was the guy who caught that pretty TD pass from Campbell in the HoF game on Sunday, running a crossing pattern underneath Moss into the corner of the end zone. This situation is something to watch.EDIT - sorry for the opening sentence fragment.
I don't disagree that Randle El may be a decent value, but how do you get 4+ receptions from "more than 51 balls this year"? Are you expecting him to miss 3+ games? Or are you just assuming that more than 51 equates to 64+?
Unless you think that Zorn is making this sort of statement about 54 as opposed to 51 catches which seems silly to me, I would expect this as a practical matter means more than 60 catches, which computes to ~4 per game.
OK, it might sound like splitting hairs, but if Randle El's career high was 51, 64+ is at least 25% beyond his previous best. That's not trivial.How about this. Can you post a breakdown of projections for Washington? Here's a strawman.Last year, they attempted 525 passes and completed 319. The attempts were 20th in the league. Let's bump it up to 550 and assume the same completion percentage (60.8%). That yields 334 completions.Last year, the RBs had 85. Holding the percentage steady would yield 89.Last year, the TEs had 74. Holding the percentage steady would yield 77. However, they have added Fred Davis. Let's call it 85.That leaves 160 total for the WRs.Last year, the WRs broke down like this:Moss - 61Randle El - 51McCardell - 22Caldwell - 15Thrash - 9Lloyd - 2They have added Thomas and Kelly and dropped McCardell, Caldwell, and Lloyd. I assume at this point Thomas will return from his current injury. Kelly is supposed to also be back.How about this:Moss - 60Randle El - 50Thomas - 20Kelly - 20Thrash - 10So even with 25 (almost 5%) more attempts, here is a strawman that limits Randle El to 50 catches. I'm sure there are plenty of alternatives, so I'd like to see someone propose how Randle El is going to get 64+ catches. Are the Redskins attempting more than 550 passes? Who is getting fewer catches than what I posted above?
Last year, 550 was about the median number of pass attempts in the NFL. The 'Skins ranked 20th in pass attempts, with 525. Gibbs had the offense going way conservative, but after Campbell went down it opened up a bit with Collins. Zorn is from Holmgren's school of West Coast Offense. This offense uses shorter passes than Gibbs' offense used, and that will mean a higher completion %, and therefore more receptions. I personally believe that Campbell is turning out to be better suited to this looser, rhythm-based passing game than he was to the more regimented, rigidly controlled Gibbs-Saunders offense. I think Campbell figures to have ~63% completion this year. The Seahawks had 590 pass attempts last year, but with injuries to the Seahawks running backs last year I expect the Redskins to be able to rely upon the run more, however I also think the 'Skins will play with fewer leads than the Seahawks did. I'd expect the 'Skins to throw maybe 560 times, and assuming a 63% completion rate that means that the team should pull down 353 catches. If I assume that 80 go to Moss and 65 go to Randle El, that's over 200 receptions to spread around between Cooley (who I'd figure to get around 65), Portis, Davis, and the remaining WR's. I see that as being reasonable, again, if indeed I'm right about the direction this offense. I personally think this is going to end up being a lost year for Thomas and Kelly. They may produce a little late in the year, but I don't see them taking a lot of passes away from the others.To finish the thought in terms of receptions:Moss- 80Cooley- 65Randle El - 65Portis - 40Thrash - 25 (Zorn loves Thrash, who has quietly proven valuable on 3rd downs)Davis - 25Kelly - 20Thomas - 20Betts - 15That should total up to around 353
That totals to 355. The biggest difference from last year is you are showing the Redskins RBs going from 85 receptions to 55. Big drop there. Interestingly, Seattle RBs had 86 receptions last season. I'm thinking your breakdown is shorting the RBs. If you have to pull 20 receptions from somewhere else for the RBs, where are they coming from?
This offense isn't Seattle's. Why do I "have to pull 20 receptions from somewhere else"? I'll tell you the guys whose numbers are the most in flux, meaning I'm more flexible on them: everyone listed below Portis on that list, and I could certainly see Portis' catches go up by as much as 10. Thrash could have as few as 10 catches, or as many as ~35 depending upon how things play out. I doubt Davis would have more than 25, but I could see him having fewer. Thomas and Kelly could have as few as maybe 15, or as many as 30. That's where I see the greatest amount of flexibility based upon how things play out, but for now I'm inclined to take Zorn at his word when he says that Randle El figures to exceed his career high production from last year.
OK, I'll agree to disagree. I see this as a typical preseason fluff piece. Unless Thomas and/or Kelly were to literally miss the season and not contribute at all, I don't see ARE with more than 50 catches.
 
OK, I'll agree to disagree. I see this as a typical preseason fluff piece. Unless Thomas and/or Kelly were to literally miss the season and not contribute at all, I don't see ARE with more than 50 catches.
Fair enough. I don't use a crystal ball, though my rear end is a reasonable facsimile. I am curious though - you only laid out 160 catches, which is about 160 short according to you and around 190 short according to me. Where are the rest of the catches going to go? Here's the breakdown you provided:Moss - 60Randle El - 50Thomas - 20Kelly - 20Thrash - 10
 
OK, I'll agree to disagree. I see this as a typical preseason fluff piece. Unless Thomas and/or Kelly were to literally miss the season and not contribute at all, I don't see ARE with more than 50 catches.
Fair enough. I don't use a crystal ball, though my rear end is a reasonable facsimile. I am curious though - you only laid out 160 catches, which is about 160 short according to you and around 190 short according to me. Where are the rest of the catches going to go?

Here's the breakdown you provided:

Moss - 60

Randle El - 50

Thomas - 20

Kelly - 20

Thrash - 10
Last year, the RBs had 85. Holding the percentage steady would yield 89.

Last year, the TEs had 74. Holding the percentage steady would yield 77. However, they have added Fred Davis. Let's call it 85.

That leaves 160 total for the WRs.

...

How about this:

Moss - 60

Randle El - 50

Thomas - 20

Kelly - 20

Thrash - 10
 
In Zorn's presser today, he was asked about Antwaan Randle El's return from injury and anticipated production.

The questions on Randle El began at 1:38 of the video which is still up as I type this at redskins.com, but the critical question came at 2:36. Essentially it was, "He caught 51 passes last year, a career high, but how productive could he be in this scheme," to which Zorn replied, "He'll catch more than 51 balls this year."

He went on to joke a little about that answer, but the bottom line is that you've got the play-caller of the 'Skins predicting what amounts to 4+ receptions per game for Randle El.

That's some fantasy value right there, especially when the only competition for those catches are TE's, Santana Moss, two injured rookie WR's missing reps in preseason, and two more special teams WR's (Thrash and Mix) who don't figure into many of the offensive game plans. That got my attention.

Randle El, of course, was the guy who caught that pretty TD pass from Campbell in the HoF game on Sunday, running a crossing pattern underneath Moss into the corner of the end zone. This situation is something to watch.

EDIT - sorry for the opening sentence fragment.
I don't disagree that Randle El may be a decent value, but how do you get 4+ receptions from "more than 51 balls this year"? Are you expecting him to miss 3+ games? Or are you just assuming that more than 51 equates to 64+?
Unless you think that Zorn is making this sort of statement about 54 as opposed to 51 catches which seems silly to me, I would expect this as a practical matter means more than 60 catches, which computes to ~4 per game.
OK, it might sound like splitting hairs, but if Randle El's career high was 51, 64+ is at least 25% beyond his previous best. That's not trivial.How about this. Can you post a breakdown of projections for Washington? Here's a strawman.

Last year, they attempted 525 passes and completed 319. The attempts were 20th in the league. Let's bump it up to 550 and assume the same completion percentage (60.8%). That yields 334 completions.

Last year, the RBs had 85. Holding the percentage steady would yield 89.

Last year, the TEs had 74. Holding the percentage steady would yield 77. However, they have added Fred Davis. Let's call it 85.

That leaves 160 total for the WRs.

Last year, the WRs broke down like this:

Moss - 61

Randle El - 51

McCardell - 22

Caldwell - 15

Thrash - 9

Lloyd - 2

They have added Thomas and Kelly and dropped McCardell, Caldwell, and Lloyd. I assume at this point Thomas will return from his current injury. Kelly is supposed to also be back.

How about this:

Moss - 60

Randle El - 50

Thomas - 20

Kelly - 20

Thrash - 10

So even with 25 (almost 5%) more attempts, here is a strawman that limits Randle El to 50 catches. I'm sure there are plenty of alternatives, so I'd like to see someone propose how Randle El is going to get 64+ catches. Are the Redskins attempting more than 550 passes? Who is getting fewer catches than what I posted above?
:goodposting: thats some in-depth analysis there! good job!

I think you might want to look at the Seattle breakdown,rather than the Redskins breakdown..

In Seattle, the RB's didn't have nearly as many catches as the Redskins RB's had..

2003 - 75

2004 - 55

2005 - 43

2006 - 52

2007 - 85

I know he was just 'qb's coach' with the Seahawks, but if he's bringing Holmgren's passing offense to Washington, you can expect to see 50-60 receptions , total, from Redskins' RB's.. By your accounting, this will leave some 25-35 extra receptions going to the WR/TE positions, based on last years total of 85 rec's by RB's..

I can't see the RB's continuing to receive 85 rec's, the passing offense that Zorn is using is going to utilize the WR position, and, to a lesser extent, the TE position...Shaun Alexander's career avg, not counting his rookie season, was just 29 rec/year, so I'd expect Portis' numbers to dip to the same level, approx 25-30 recs..

one of these WR's will post 80+ recs..

I'm not even sure that Cooley will catch as many balls as he did last season (66)..Al Saunders' offenses 'feature' the TE position, while the Holmgren-style of offense, just uses the TE position..

 
Last edited by a moderator:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/HolmMi0.htm

Here you will find the breakdown of individual player performances for every Team that Mike Holmgren has Head Coached. Being a Holmgren disciple, it's safe to say that there are some things worth seeing here that might lead us to some hypothesis about how Zorn will employ his Offensive Scheme...

...it appears that Holmgren tailors the yearly focus of his Offense based on the hand he's dealt, and there's not much 'typical' about where the ball flows from Season to Season, but rather based on the personnel groups. Some Seasons, he 'uses' the TE, but when he's had an 'upper-tier' option at TE (Keith Jackson, Mark Chmura), or a proficient receiver out of the backfield (Edgar Bennett, for one), he's certainly gotten the ball to them. Based on looking at the 'skins current personnel, and looking over Holmgren's Coaching History, it could be argued that under Holmgren's tutelege, he and Zorn have never worked with a RB/TE tandem as talented as the combo of Portis/Cooley, but when they've had 'upper-tier' players at those positions, they've received heavy attention in the passing game, and I'm expecting to see them both catching plenty of balls in '08. If Jason Campbell truly grasps this O, and drives the bus proficiently, there's some serious potential for EVERY main cog in the 'skins Offense to outperform last Season's stats, Randle-El included, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Randle-El doing quite a fine job in the Bobby Engram complementary role, which should net him 50-60 receptions. Should Campbell struggle, I think I'd still feel safe with Portis and Cooley having the talent to continue to be statistically effective in 'checkdown option' roles. Bullish on both, from a PPR perspective.

 
In Zorn's presser today, he was asked about Antwaan Randle El's return from injury and anticipated production.

The questions on Randle El began at 1:38 of the video which is still up as I type this at redskins.com, but the critical question came at 2:36. Essentially it was, "He caught 51 passes last year, a career high, but how productive could he be in this scheme," to which Zorn replied, "He'll catch more than 51 balls this year."

He went on to joke a little about that answer, but the bottom line is that you've got the play-caller of the 'Skins predicting what amounts to 4+ receptions per game for Randle El.

That's some fantasy value right there, especially when the only competition for those catches are TE's, Santana Moss, two injured rookie WR's missing reps in preseason, and two more special teams WR's (Thrash and Mix) who don't figure into many of the offensive game plans. That got my attention.

Randle El, of course, was the guy who caught that pretty TD pass from Campbell in the HoF game on Sunday, running a crossing pattern underneath Moss into the corner of the end zone. This situation is something to watch.

EDIT - sorry for the opening sentence fragment.
I don't disagree that Randle El may be a decent value, but how do you get 4+ receptions from "more than 51 balls this year"? Are you expecting him to miss 3+ games? Or are you just assuming that more than 51 equates to 64+?
Unless you think that Zorn is making this sort of statement about 54 as opposed to 51 catches which seems silly to me, I would expect this as a practical matter means more than 60 catches, which computes to ~4 per game.
OK, it might sound like splitting hairs, but if Randle El's career high was 51, 64+ is at least 25% beyond his previous best. That's not trivial.How about this. Can you post a breakdown of projections for Washington? Here's a strawman.

Last year, they attempted 525 passes and completed 319. The attempts were 20th in the league. Let's bump it up to 550 and assume the same completion percentage (60.8%). That yields 334 completions.

Last year, the RBs had 85. Holding the percentage steady would yield 89.

Last year, the TEs had 74. Holding the percentage steady would yield 77. However, they have added Fred Davis. Let's call it 85.

That leaves 160 total for the WRs.

Last year, the WRs broke down like this:

Moss - 61

Randle El - 51

McCardell - 22

Caldwell - 15

Thrash - 9

Lloyd - 2

They have added Thomas and Kelly and dropped McCardell, Caldwell, and Lloyd. I assume at this point Thomas will return from his current injury. Kelly is supposed to also be back.

How about this:

Moss - 60

Randle El - 50

Thomas - 20

Kelly - 20

Thrash - 10

So even with 25 (almost 5%) more attempts, here is a strawman that limits Randle El to 50 catches. I'm sure there are plenty of alternatives, so I'd like to see someone propose how Randle El is going to get 64+ catches. Are the Redskins attempting more than 550 passes? Who is getting fewer catches than what I posted above?
:hophead: thats some in-depth analysis there! good job!

I think you might want to look at the Seattle breakdown,rather than the Redskins breakdown..

In Seattle, the RB's didn't have nearly as many catches as the Redskins RB's had..

2003 - 75

2004 - 55

2005 - 43

2006 - 52

2007 - 85

I know he was just 'qb's coach' with the Seahawks, but if he's bringing Holmgren's passing offense to Washington, you can expect to see 50-60 receptions , total, from Redskins' RB's.. By your accounting, this will leave some 25-35 extra receptions going to the WR/TE positions, based on last years total of 85 rec's by RB's..

I can't see the RB's continuing to receive 85 rec's, the passing offense that Zorn is using is going to utilize the WR position, and, to a lesser extent, the TE position...Shaun Alexander's career avg, not counting his rookie season, was just 29 rec/year, so I'd expect Portis' numbers to dip to the same level, approx 25-30 recs..

one of these WR's will post 80+ recs..

I'm not even sure that Cooley will catch as many balls as he did last season (66)..Al Saunders' offenses 'feature' the TE position, while the Holmgren-style of offense, just uses the TE position..
Shaun Alexander's Y/R is more than a full yard lower than CP's, the last few years he was just worthless as a receiver (and his catch totals show it) so I don't know that you can assume similar production when Portis has been a much better receiver the past few years. Given his history I don't see Portis getting less than 2 rec/game, with a high of 3.
 
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/HolmMi0.htm

Here you will find the breakdown of individual player performances for every Team that Mike Holmgren has Head Coached. Being a Holmgren disciple, it's safe to say that there are some things worth seeing here that might lead us to some hypothesis about how Zorn will employ his Offensive Scheme...

...it appears that Holmgren tailors the yearly focus of his Offense based on the hand he's dealt, and there's not much 'typical' about where the ball flows from Season to Season, but rather based on the personnel groups. Some Seasons, he 'uses' the TE, but when he's had an 'upper-tier' option at TE (Keith Jackson, Mark Chmura), or a proficient receiver out of the backfield (Edgar Bennett, for one), he's certainly gotten the ball to them. Based on looking at the 'skins current personnel, and looking over Holmgren's Coaching History, it could be argued that under Holmgren's tutelege, he and Zorn have never worked with a RB/TE tandem as talented as the combo of Portis/Cooley, but when they've had 'upper-tier' players at those positions, they've received heavy attention in the passing game, and I'm expecting to see them both catching plenty of balls in '08. If Jason Campbell truly grasps this O, and drives the bus proficiently, there's some serious potential for EVERY main cog in the 'skins Offense to outperform last Season's stats, Randle-El included, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Randle-El doing quite a fine job in the Bobby Engram complementary role, which should net him 50-60 receptions. Should Campbell struggle, I think I'd still feel safe with Portis and Cooley having the talent to continue to be statistically effective in 'checkdown option' roles. Bullish on both, from a PPR perspective.
:hot: Plus Campbell loves throwing to El.

Source: my memory

 
I'm seeing a lot of 2nd and 3rd down looks to Randle El. Like I said in the Wash-Buff game thread, the way they're using him is reminding me somewhat of Wes Welker.

 
Ok, 5 games into the season, and his stats are:21/219/1, which means he's on a pace for 67/700/3. This article explains ARE's role and why he gets so many looks . . . and again, he's very Welker-esque:

Redskins' Outlet Is ElectricRandle El Sparks Team When Other Options FizzleBy Jason ReidWashington Post Staff WriterSaturday, October 11, 2008; E01If pass catchers are well covered and Washington Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell is in need of help, that's usually when wide receiver Antwaan Randle El does his best work. He freelances by design in Coach Jim Zorn's spread offense and provides Campbell with timely assists.The team's No. 2 wideout is among many who have responded favorably to a less-complex scheme than Washington's approach under former play-caller Al Saunders. With more freedom in patterns, Randle El has capitalized on opportunities and contributed to the Redskins' impressive start.The Redskins (4-1) will attempt to extend their winning streak to five games tomorrow against the St. Louis Rams (0-4) -- whose offense Saunders now directs -- at FedEx Field. Physically sound again after having been slowed by hamstring and knee injuries during the 2007 season, Randle El finally has a role with Washington that suits him well. Now, if only he could get going on punt returns, too."Antwaan is having fun," Campbell said. "As soon as I started to learn Coach Zorn's offense, and understand the things that you can do it, I knew Antwaan would be one of the guys who would really get into it. Coach Zorn puts a lot of trust in him, and you know you can count on him."Santana Moss leads the team in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns, but Randle El has settled into a key role. Primarily positioned as the slot receiver in Zorn's version of the West Coast offense, Randle El has one touchdown catch and is third on the team with 21 receptions for 219 yards. Statistics, however, do not reflect his importance, especially as an outlet in pressure situations.Under Zorn, the Redskins are "running more option routes than last year, and that's been good for him," wide receivers coach Stan Hixon said. And Zorn "gives him a lot of freedom versus certain coverages. He tells him, 'Just get open and we'll read you.' "Randle El often succeeds at maneuvering through defenses from the slot because of his size (he is listed at 5 feet 10 and 190 pounds) and quickness, Hixon said. When facing spread offenses, most teams use their third cornerbacks against slot receivers. Randle El usually draws favorable matchups, and "he does win a lot" of those individual battles, Campbell said. Of Randle El's 21 catches, 13 have produced first downs, the third-highest total on the team behind Moss and tight end Chris Cooley (18 and 16, respectively).Attempting to run out the clock late in the fourth quarter of Sunday's 23-17 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, Washington needed four yards on third down. After a timeout, Zorn, Washington's play-caller, called for a pass play that did not seem to work as the Eagles had tight coverage on everyone in the pattern, and Campbell was chased from the pocket.Randle El, running an option route, realized what had gone wrong and adjusted, locating a hole in the defense he thought would be the only opening for Campbell against the Eagles' alignment. The result was an 11-yard completion and a first down.The Redskins maintained possession, gained two more first downs -- including one on a fourth-down draw play -- and Campbell kneeled to end a game for the fourth time in as many weeks. "He sees me scrambling, and he's not open initially, but he gets himself open," Campbell said. "I'm able to get the ball to him and he's able to get the first down. That was big."Earlier in the second half, Randle El, a quarterback at Indiana, threw an 18-yard touchdown pass to Cooley on an end-around play. "He acts like a quarterback when he's out there. That's what fires me up," said Zorn, a former quarterback. "He understands how to see an open receiver. He's a tremendous guy and he's got unique talents."During the second quarter of a 26-24 victory over Dallas on Sept. 28, Campbell and Randle El teamed on a two-yard touchdown pass. Although the touchdown occurred on a conventional route, Randle El ran many option routes in the first half that helped draw Cowboys defensive backs away from Moss, who had six receptions for 125 yards in the first half (he finished with eight catches for 145 yards)."Under Coach Zorn, we've called the option routes more, more so than we did in the past, but the other thing, too, is that we have more freedom in running 'em," Randle El said. With Zorn's option routes, "we can break in if we want, we can break out if we want, we can just go up there and stop."We can go any way we want to go. It's basically backyard ball, one-on-one, mano y mano, just get open, but it's always all within the structure of the offense."The offense is more user-friendly than Saunders's, with its 700-page playbook. "It's not as much volume," Randle El said. "The things that we run, we run good, and because of those things that we run and run good, we're able to run different things off those things."In the past, we would run so many things, [opponents] wouldn't know what we were doing, but sometimes we didn't, either, in terms of getting a true feel of Jason knowing, 'Okay, he's going to come out right here.' Now, he knows my break. We didn't have options like that last year. We had a bit much because the volume was so much."Said Hixon, "Our playbook is a lot smaller."The Redskins, in part, pursued Randle El in free agency before the 2006 season because they envisioned him doing big things for them as a slot receiver. Randle El was a productive third receiver in his first four seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers, and a big part of their offense on end-around and option plays. During Pittsburgh's 21-10 victory over the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XL, Randle El became the first wide receiver in Super Bowl history to throw a touchdown pass (he combined with wideout Hines Ward on a 43-yard play).The Redskins also devised trick plays for Randle El, but Joe Gibbs and Saunders rarely were on the same page, many in the organization said, and the offense did not take shape. Ousted in the staff shakeup that occurred after Gibbs retired in January, Saunders quickly joined the Rams."It's just different now," Campbell said. "Guys can really show what they can do in this offense."Randle El, however, has not been as productive as he would prefer on punt returns, averaging only 7.5 yards. He also has committed Washington's only turnover this season, a fumble on a return.Criticism about his performance in the return game "doesn't bother me," Randle El said. "You've got to remember, I've been playing in this league seven years. Criticism comes with it, but I evaluate myself more critically than any reporter or coach could."
As for my overall team projections, I overestimated the rookies' numbers, low as they were, with the possible exception of Devin Thomas. I also overestimated the RB's numbers, and I underestimated Cooley's numbers.
 
El has looked good this year.

Although he dropped a couple balls last weekend... Lets hope that trend doesn't continue.

I think With the re-emergence of Moss and Campbell getting more comfortable, El's numbers should bump a bit down the stretch.

My guess... 75-800-5

 

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