Any news on Jones-Drew (1 Viewer)

[faux_bear]

I don't think the question is whether MJD is better. I think perhaps a more appropriate question might be is he worth an end of the 1st or early 2nd pick? What about if it is PPR?

Obviously the masses think MJD > Taylor - otherwise their ADPs wouldn't be so far apart.

But good enough to justify end 1st/early 2nd? That's what I'd like to know.

ETA: End of 1st - early 2nd is for PPR leagues

For non-PPR leagues, more like mid-2nd.

Good question, I'm really torn between MJD and McGahee in a PPR league right now and have no idea who to take.

 

[Todem]

I don't think the question is whether MJD is better. I think perhaps a more appropriate question might be is he worth an end of the 1st or early 2nd pick? What about if it is PPR?

Obviously the masses think MJD > Taylor - otherwise their ADPs wouldn't be so far apart.

But good enough to justify end 1st/early 2nd? That's what I'd like to know.

ETA: End of 1st - early 2nd is for PPR leagues

For non-PPR leagues, more like mid-2nd.

Good question, I'm really torn between MJD and McGahee in a PPR league right now and have no idea who to take.

In PPR MJD in a nano second

 

[Tau837]

Fred still has some gas in the tank no doubt but MJD will get 60% - 65% of the touches IMO.

This won't happen, unless you are (a) counting on Taylor to get hurt or (b) counting kick/punt returns.

 

[switz]

Fred still has some gas in the tank no doubt but MJD will get 60% - 65% of the touches IMO.

Hence why I am compelled to keep posting.Unless you are including kick returns, or betting on Taylor getting injured, this is ridiculous.

Don't rush after part-time runners in fantasy draft

Such regular vanishing acts on the yardage front can kill your team, especially from a high pick.

Still, Jones-Drew or Barber will go quickly simply because of their TD totals, or because owners will reach the seemingly logical conclusion that high-scoring part-timers will be rewarded with more work.

But it doesn't look like either back will get significantly more carries, as their new offensive coordinators both said committees will remain.

The Jaguars brought back the ancient Fred Taylor, who ran 65 more times than Jones-Drew last season. They also got back 255-pound bruiser Greg Jones, who had a couple 100-yard games in 2005 but missed last season with injury. He's sure to scrape up a few carries.

There is no way MJD has more touches that Taylor, if both are healthy all year.

 

[Tau837]

Fred still has some gas in the tank no doubt but MJD will get 60% - 65% of the touches IMO.

Hence why I am compelled to keep posting.Unless you are including kick returns, or betting on Taylor getting injured, this is ridiculous.

Don't rush after part-time runners in fantasy draft

Such regular vanishing acts on the yardage front can kill your team, especially from a high pick.

Still, Jones-Drew or Barber will go quickly simply because of their TD totals, or because owners will reach the seemingly logical conclusion that high-scoring part-timers will be rewarded with more work.

But it doesn't look like either back will get significantly more carries, as their new offensive coordinators both said committees will remain.

The Jaguars brought back the ancient Fred Taylor, who ran 65 more times than Jones-Drew last season. They also got back 255-pound bruiser Greg Jones, who had a couple 100-yard games in 2005 but missed last season with injury. He's sure to scrape up a few carries.

There is no way MJD has more touches that Taylor, if both are healthy all year.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Any idea if Greg Jones will get the GL carries this year?

 

[dirtywaters20]

My league awards points for return yards, bonuses for yardage on td's & .5 ppr. I have the second pick in round 2 of a twelve team league & would take him over McGahee in a second.

Yesw, in that case he's an awesome pick!

I agree - in fact, I think in that format he's a steal at 2.02, and if it's not a guppy league he probably won't be there. How many other top-flight RB talents also rack up return yards? Not to mention MJD's knack for breaking long TD's and his reception totals - he's probably a STUD in your league...

He finished tied for 10 overall last season. Kick return yardage is scored at a 1/25 clip. It is also a start 2QB league (6 pts all tds), that is why there is a shot he will be there at 14 overall. If you predict a downward dip in his td's this year, which is certainly reasonable, that spot is about right.

 

[Gr00vus]

There is no way MJD has more touches that Taylor, if both are healthy all year.

Now where's that just plain flat out wrong smiley.....well here's the best I can do,

I'm pretty sure Jones-Drew will have more touches than Taylor, and I think he may have as many or more carries.

 

[Ilov80s]

I find this ESPN article interesting. The purpose of the article is to explain why MJD is overvalued and will be in a dreaded RBBC all year. The author believes Jones will cut into MJD's carries and especially his carries inside the 5: resulting in a decrease in TDs.

The final adjusted stat line he gives for MJD is 946 rushing, 436 receiving, and 10 TDs or 198 FF points. In 06, 198 FF points would have been good enough to rank as the 10th best back. That breaks down to 12.75 FF per game, good enough for 14th.

For a guy going mid-to-late 2nd round and likely being the 15th player at his position drafted, how are these supposedly negative new adjusted projections a shot at Jones-Drew? If anything this article is saying MJD is being drafted exactly where he belongs. I like a player who, when downgraded by a FF writer, projects out to his draft position.

well... i pretty much plagiarized these two paragraphs and mailed them to the author (Ken Daube). This was his response:If you've read my other work you'd know that I've done extensive analysis that shows there's significantly more value in taking a WR over a RB in round 2. Assuming that he replicates those adjusted statistics and doesn't suffer the same drop in YPC that is standard among 2nd year runners who gained 1k yards in their rookie season, that 198 points is not enough of a value to pass on an elite WR. The WR you take in round 2 and the average RB taken in round 4 score more than the opposite combination.

There isn't value in taking a 2nd to 3rd tier RB in round 2, despite whatever conventional wisdom says.

As far as MJD'd goal line success, yes it was good, but NFL coaches almost exclusively give bigger backs goal line reps. In one season, Tiki Barber led the NFL in that efficiency, in the next, Brandon Jacobs was given those responsibilities. It's not smart of those coaches, but ignoring what happens would be completely irresponsible.

- Ken Daube

-----------------------------------

since he mentions Greg Jones' amazing 35% conversion rate near the goalline in that article ... i added a couple sentences of my own. But other whise it was a total C&P job. I hope the original author doesn't mind.

I approve. His is response interesting, but I still disagree. If a back's downgraded numbers put him at 14th and his ceiling (we will use his 06 stats) make him the 8th best back, I believe that is well worth a 2nd round pick. I'd much rather draft MJD then Brown or McGahee- two guys who haven never shown the production or electricity that MJD has- despite great opportunities.

 

[3nOut]

Why aren't there new threads every day aout Bush and Maroney and how they are going to be the next uberstud RBs?

Because there'sno dispute that Bush will be the next uberstud

 

[switz]

I'd much rather draft MJD then Brown or McGahee- two guys who haven never shown the production or electricity that MJD has- despite great opportunities.

16 |   284   1128    4.0   13 |    22    169   7.7    0 | 20616 |   166    941    5.7   13 |    46    436   9.5    2 | 227

Pretty comparable end of the year numbers

 

[bonesman]

I'd much rather draft MJD then Brown or McGahee- two guys who haven never shown the production or electricity that MJD has- despite great opportunities.

16 |   284   1128    4.0   13 |    22    169   7.7    0 | 20616 |   166    941    5.7   13 |    46    436   9.5    2 | 227

Pretty comparable end of the year numbers

DESPITE GREAT OPPORTUNITIES.I think he's saying that if Jones-Drew saw the equivalent amount of touches as Brown or McGahee... they wouldn't be discussed in the same tier.I'd say their end of the year numbers also clearly reflect that.

 

[Ilov80s]

I'd much rather draft MJD then Brown or McGahee- two guys who haven never shown the production or electricity that MJD has- despite great opportunities.

16 |   284   1128    4.0   13 |    22    169   7.7    0 | 20616 |   166    941    5.7   13 |    46    436   9.5    2 | 227

Pretty comparable end of the year numbers

In comparison to the rest of the RB class in their respective best years (its not really the numbers that matter as much as how the numbers compare to everyone else), McGahee's top finish was 15th in PPG while MJD finished 8th last year. That is ofcourse non-ppr. In ppr, the difference would be even more profound.

 

[vichawkfan]

Fred still has some gas in the tank no doubt but MJD will get 60% - 65% of the touches IMO.

Hence why I am compelled to keep posting.Unless you are including kick returns, or betting on Taylor getting injured, this is ridiculous.

Don't rush after part-time runners in fantasy draft

Such regular vanishing acts on the yardage front can kill your team, especially from a high pick.

Still, Jones-Drew or Barber will go quickly simply because of their TD totals, or because owners will reach the seemingly logical conclusion that high-scoring part-timers will be rewarded with more work.

But it doesn't look like either back will get significantly more carries, as their new offensive coordinators both said committees will remain.

The Jaguars brought back the ancient Fred Taylor, who ran 65 more times than Jones-Drew last season. They also got back 255-pound bruiser Greg Jones, who had a couple 100-yard games in 2005 but missed last season with injury. He's sure to scrape up a few carries.

There is no way MJD has more touches that Taylor, if both are healthy all year.

not sure why you're so confident in Taylor getting more touches IF he's healthy all year? Do you have inside info with the coaching staff?Did you watch any Jags games last season?

RB's that avg 5.7 YPC and coverted the 2nd highest TD% from inside the 20yrd line (32/10 TD's - LT#1), don't usually see a reduction in touches the next year.

You're the biggest MJD downer on the site, but you don't back any of your theories. I can only assume you have a mancrush on Fred.

I suppose if preseason is any indication, Fred will get the 1yrd goal line carry after MJD runs for 50 yrds and gets tackled on the 1 and needs to take a breather.

 

[TheFanatic]

Fred still has some gas in the tank no doubt but MJD will get 60% - 65% of the touches IMO.

Hence why I am compelled to keep posting.Unless you are including kick returns, or betting on Taylor getting injured, this is ridiculous.

Don't rush after part-time runners in fantasy draft

Such regular vanishing acts on the yardage front can kill your team, especially from a high pick.

Still, Jones-Drew or Barber will go quickly simply because of their TD totals, or because owners will reach the seemingly logical conclusion that high-scoring part-timers will be rewarded with more work.

But it doesn't look like either back will get significantly more carries, as their new offensive coordinators both said committees will remain.

The Jaguars brought back the ancient Fred Taylor, who ran 65 more times than Jones-Drew last season. They also got back 255-pound bruiser Greg Jones, who had a couple 100-yard games in 2005 but missed last season with injury. He's sure to scrape up a few carries.

There is no way MJD has more touches that Taylor, if both are healthy all year.

They did a RBBC last year where Fred got most of the carries and he couldn't stay healthy. Anyone who assumes that they will take the exact same approach in terms of ratio of carries again this year is a fool. That coaching staff has to be prepared for Taylor's body being another year older and that much more likely to break down. Does that mean they will give more carries to MJD than Fred? No. Does it mean they might? Possibly. All I do know is this, MJD is going to get a higher percentage of the touches than he did last year. I fully expect his TD's and YPC to regress towards the mean. But I also fully expect him to get more touches than he did last year which should balance things out. Thus, I see him as finishing anywhere from 6-15 this year. Albeit, anything better than 8 will probably require a Taylor injury. Thus I see the guy as a solid RB2. He's currently my RB3 so I would be happy with just about anything inside the top 20 except for the ribbing I would get for pimping him all offseason....

 

[Tau837]

Fred still has some gas in the tank no doubt but MJD will get 60% - 65% of the touches IMO.

Hence why I am compelled to keep posting.Unless you are including kick returns, or betting on Taylor getting injured, this is ridiculous.

Don't rush after part-time runners in fantasy draft

Such regular vanishing acts on the yardage front can kill your team, especially from a high pick.

Still, Jones-Drew or Barber will go quickly simply because of their TD totals, or because owners will reach the seemingly logical conclusion that high-scoring part-timers will be rewarded with more work.

But it doesn't look like either back will get significantly more carries, as their new offensive coordinators both said committees will remain.

The Jaguars brought back the ancient Fred Taylor, who ran 65 more times than Jones-Drew last season. They also got back 255-pound bruiser Greg Jones, who had a couple 100-yard games in 2005 but missed last season with injury. He's sure to scrape up a few carries.

There is no way MJD has more touches that Taylor, if both are healthy all year.

not sure why you're so confident in Taylor getting more touches IF he's healthy all year? Do you have inside info with the coaching staff?Did you watch any Jags games last season?

RB's that avg 5.7 YPC and coverted the 2nd highest TD% from inside the 20yrd line (32/10 TD's - LT#1), don't usually see a reduction in touches the next year.

You're the biggest MJD downer on the site, but you don't back any of your theories. I can only assume you have a mancrush on Fred.

I suppose if preseason is any indication, Fred will get the 1yrd goal line carry after MJD runs for 50 yrds and gets tackled on the 1 and needs to take a breather.

Reasons Taylor will get more touches, in no particular order:1. MJD is returning kicks and maybe punts. Taylor isn't. Effectively, MJD can get equal or greater touches in the game and still have fewer offensive touches than Taylor. IMO this would be a bigger factor if MJD returns both kicks and punts. Does anyone know if he will return both?

2. The running game produced marginally better when Taylor was getting more touches last season than it did after he was hurt. See my earlier post on this. Even if you think it is too small a sample size, or it was Garrard's fault, there is no evidence that the offense produces better with MJD getting more touches than Taylor.

3. Taylor is a very good RB and got a new contract in the offseason. No point in saving him for later years... might as well run him into the ground.

4. Taylor is a veteran who may offer intangibles that aren't always relevant to fantasy numbers. For example, is he a leader on the team? Easier to lead in a more active role.

 

[jurb26]

Fred still has some gas in the tank no doubt but MJD will get 60% - 65% of the touches IMO.

Hence why I am compelled to keep posting.Unless you are including kick returns, or betting on Taylor getting injured, this is ridiculous.

Don't rush after part-time runners in fantasy draft

Such regular vanishing acts on the yardage front can kill your team, especially from a high pick.

Still, Jones-Drew or Barber will go quickly simply because of their TD totals, or because owners will reach the seemingly logical conclusion that high-scoring part-timers will be rewarded with more work.

But it doesn't look like either back will get significantly more carries, as their new offensive coordinators both said committees will remain.

The Jaguars brought back the ancient Fred Taylor, who ran 65 more times than Jones-Drew last season. They also got back 255-pound bruiser Greg Jones, who had a couple 100-yard games in 2005 but missed last season with injury. He's sure to scrape up a few carries.

There is no way MJD has more touches that Taylor, if both are healthy all year.

not sure why you're so confident in Taylor getting more touches IF he's healthy all year? Do you have inside info with the coaching staff?Did you watch any Jags games last season?

RB's that avg 5.7 YPC and coverted the 2nd highest TD% from inside the 20yrd line (32/10 TD's - LT#1), don't usually see a reduction in touches the next year.

You're the biggest MJD downer on the site, but you don't back any of your theories. I can only assume you have a mancrush on Fred.

I suppose if preseason is any indication, Fred will get the 1yrd goal line carry after MJD runs for 50 yrds and gets tackled on the 1 and needs to take a breather.

Reasons Taylor will get more touches, in no particular order:1. MJD is returning kicks and maybe punts. Taylor isn't. Effectively, MJD can get equal or greater touches in the game and still have fewer offensive touches than Taylor. IMO this would be a bigger factor if MJD returns both kicks and punts. Does anyone know if he will return both?

No, he only returns KOs.

2. The running game produced marginally better when Taylor was getting more touches last season than it did after he was hurt. See my earlier post on this. Even if you think it is too small a sample size, or it was Garrard's fault, there is no evidence that the offense produces better with MJD getting more touches than Taylor.

Not sure what you are talking about. Jack average 25 points a game and 372.8 yds a game when MJD got more touches than Taylor. They averaged 22 points a game and 323.5 yds a game when Taylor got more touches.

3. Taylor is a very good RB and got a new contract in the offseason. No point in saving him for later years... might as well run him into the ground.

Jack wants to win now. If MJD gives them the best chance to do that (the above numbers suggest he does even though it is a small sample size) then he will get more touches. If Taylor does, he will get more touches. If a split does....

4. Taylor is a veteran who may offer intangibles that aren't always relevant to fantasy numbers. For example, is he a leader on the team? Easier to lead in a more active role.

Bettis provided leadership while handing over the work to Parker. Thats what leaders do, they sacrifice personal glory for the glory of the team. We are not talking about QBs here. RBs can prove vitally important to leadership and moral while not being a main cog in the offense or maintaining the lead RB role. That has been proven.

I'm not convinced by any of these reasons. Honestly, some of them seem like pretty far reaches.

 

[Gr00vus]

To me it's pretty simple. At this point Jones-Drew is clearly the best playmaker on the squad. He's the most potent weapon they have on offense. He's the best player they have on offense. He can make a house call on any given play. The Jags don't have anyone near his level in this regard.

If you're going to have success in the NFL, you get the ball into the hands of your best playmakers as often as you can.

Maybe Del Rio isn't the greatest coach of all time, but he'd have to be an utter and complete moron to go against the grain here and find ways to keep Jones-Drew from getting the ball often enough to not allow him to make a significant impact on the game. If Reggie Bush isn't being called into question as a 1st round pick in basically the same situation, with shortcomings that Jones-Drew doesn't have (newsflash Reggie STILL can't run tough inside), I can't understand why so many have such a tough time accepting Jones-Drew as a mid second round pick.

Switz, I know you're seeing shades of Barlow here, the elephant's in the room, so let's talk about it. Simply, it's just not the same situation. Jones-Drew has more heart and work ethic than Kevan Barlow ever could dream of. He doesn't allow himself to fail, he's not a quitter.

 

[Tau837]

Fred still has some gas in the tank no doubt but MJD will get 60% - 65% of the touches IMO.

Hence why I am compelled to keep posting.Unless you are including kick returns, or betting on Taylor getting injured, this is ridiculous.

Don't rush after part-time runners in fantasy draft

Such regular vanishing acts on the yardage front can kill your team, especially from a high pick.

Still, Jones-Drew or Barber will go quickly simply because of their TD totals, or because owners will reach the seemingly logical conclusion that high-scoring part-timers will be rewarded with more work.

But it doesn't look like either back will get significantly more carries, as their new offensive coordinators both said committees will remain.

The Jaguars brought back the ancient Fred Taylor, who ran 65 more times than Jones-Drew last season. They also got back 255-pound bruiser Greg Jones, who had a couple 100-yard games in 2005 but missed last season with injury. He's sure to scrape up a few carries.

There is no way MJD has more touches that Taylor, if both are healthy all year.

not sure why you're so confident in Taylor getting more touches IF he's healthy all year? Do you have inside info with the coaching staff?Did you watch any Jags games last season?

RB's that avg 5.7 YPC and coverted the 2nd highest TD% from inside the 20yrd line (32/10 TD's - LT#1), don't usually see a reduction in touches the next year.

You're the biggest MJD downer on the site, but you don't back any of your theories. I can only assume you have a mancrush on Fred.

I suppose if preseason is any indication, Fred will get the 1yrd goal line carry after MJD runs for 50 yrds and gets tackled on the 1 and needs to take a breather.

Reasons Taylor will get more touches, in no particular order:1. MJD is returning kicks and maybe punts. Taylor isn't. Effectively, MJD can get equal or greater touches in the game and still have fewer offensive touches than Taylor. IMO this would be a bigger factor if MJD returns both kicks and punts. Does anyone know if he will return both?

No, he only returns KOs.

2. The running game produced marginally better when Taylor was getting more touches last season than it did after he was hurt. See my earlier post on this. Even if you think it is too small a sample size, or it was Garrard's fault, there is no evidence that the offense produces better with MJD getting more touches than Taylor.

Not sure what you are talking about. Jack average 25 points a game and 372.8 yds a game when MJD got more touches than Taylor. They averaged 22 points a game and 323.5 yds a game when Taylor got more touches.

3. Taylor is a very good RB and got a new contract in the offseason. No point in saving him for later years... might as well run him into the ground.

Jack wants to win now. If MJD gives them the best chance to do that (the above numbers suggest he does even though it is a small sample size) then he will get more touches. If Taylor does, he will get more touches. If a split does....

4. Taylor is a veteran who may offer intangibles that aren't always relevant to fantasy numbers. For example, is he a leader on the team? Easier to lead in a more active role.

Bettis provided leadership while handing over the work to Parker. Thats what leaders do, they sacrifice personal glory for the glory of the team. We are not talking about QBs here. RBs can prove vitally important to leadership and moral while not being a main cog in the offense or maintaining the lead RB role. That has been proven.

I'm not convinced by any of these reasons. Honestly, some of them seem like pretty far reaches.

Regarding #2, see post #95. Don't worry, I'm sure you will disagree with the point made there, just as most everyone else has.I guess I'll just agree to disagree with everyone except switz...

 

[switz]

Fred still has some gas in the tank no doubt but MJD will get 60% - 65% of the touches IMO.

Hence why I am compelled to keep posting.Unless you are including kick returns, or betting on Taylor getting injured, this is ridiculous.

Don't rush after part-time runners in fantasy draft

Such regular vanishing acts on the yardage front can kill your team, especially from a high pick.

Still, Jones-Drew or Barber will go quickly simply because of their TD totals, or because owners will reach the seemingly logical conclusion that high-scoring part-timers will be rewarded with more work.

But it doesn't look like either back will get significantly more carries, as their new offensive coordinators both said committees will remain.

The Jaguars brought back the ancient Fred Taylor, who ran 65 more times than Jones-Drew last season. They also got back 255-pound bruiser Greg Jones, who had a couple 100-yard games in 2005 but missed last season with injury. He's sure to scrape up a few carries.

There is no way MJD has more touches that Taylor, if both are healthy all year.

They did a RBBC last year where Fred got most of the carries and he couldn't stay healthy. Anyone who assumes that they will take the exact same approach in terms of ratio of carries again this year is a fool. That coaching staff has to be prepared for Taylor's body being another year older and that much more likely to break down. Does that mean they will give more carries to MJD than Fred? No. Does it mean they might? Possibly. All I do know is this, MJD is going to get a higher percentage of the touches than he did last year. I fully expect his TD's and YPC to regress towards the mean. But I also fully expect him to get more touches than he did last year which should balance things out. Thus, I see him as finishing anywhere from 6-15 this year. Albeit, anything better than 8 will probably require a Taylor injury. Thus I see the guy as a solid RB2. He's currently my RB3 so I would be happy with just about anything inside the top 20 except for the ribbing I would get for pimping him all offseason....

You think he could be the #6 overall back at years end?

 

[jurb26]

Fred still has some gas in the tank no doubt but MJD will get 60% - 65% of the touches IMO.

Hence why I am compelled to keep posting.Unless you are including kick returns, or betting on Taylor getting injured, this is ridiculous.

Don't rush after part-time runners in fantasy draft

Such regular vanishing acts on the yardage front can kill your team, especially from a high pick.

Still, Jones-Drew or Barber will go quickly simply because of their TD totals, or because owners will reach the seemingly logical conclusion that high-scoring part-timers will be rewarded with more work.

But it doesn't look like either back will get significantly more carries, as their new offensive coordinators both said committees will remain.

The Jaguars brought back the ancient Fred Taylor, who ran 65 more times than Jones-Drew last season. They also got back 255-pound bruiser Greg Jones, who had a couple 100-yard games in 2005 but missed last season with injury. He's sure to scrape up a few carries.

There is no way MJD has more touches that Taylor, if both are healthy all year.

not sure why you're so confident in Taylor getting more touches IF he's healthy all year? Do you have inside info with the coaching staff?Did you watch any Jags games last season?

RB's that avg 5.7 YPC and coverted the 2nd highest TD% from inside the 20yrd line (32/10 TD's - LT#1), don't usually see a reduction in touches the next year.

You're the biggest MJD downer on the site, but you don't back any of your theories. I can only assume you have a mancrush on Fred.

I suppose if preseason is any indication, Fred will get the 1yrd goal line carry after MJD runs for 50 yrds and gets tackled on the 1 and needs to take a breather.

Reasons Taylor will get more touches, in no particular order:1. MJD is returning kicks and maybe punts. Taylor isn't. Effectively, MJD can get equal or greater touches in the game and still have fewer offensive touches than Taylor. IMO this would be a bigger factor if MJD returns both kicks and punts. Does anyone know if he will return both?

No, he only returns KOs.

2. The running game produced marginally better when Taylor was getting more touches last season than it did after he was hurt. See my earlier post on this. Even if you think it is too small a sample size, or it was Garrard's fault, there is no evidence that the offense produces better with MJD getting more touches than Taylor.

Not sure what you are talking about. Jack average 25 points a game and 372.8 yds a game when MJD got more touches than Taylor. They averaged 22 points a game and 323.5 yds a game when Taylor got more touches.

3. Taylor is a very good RB and got a new contract in the offseason. No point in saving him for later years... might as well run him into the ground.

Jack wants to win now. If MJD gives them the best chance to do that (the above numbers suggest he does even though it is a small sample size) then he will get more touches. If Taylor does, he will get more touches. If a split does....

4. Taylor is a veteran who may offer intangibles that aren't always relevant to fantasy numbers. For example, is he a leader on the team? Easier to lead in a more active role.

Bettis provided leadership while handing over the work to Parker. Thats what leaders do, they sacrifice personal glory for the glory of the team. We are not talking about QBs here. RBs can prove vitally important to leadership and moral while not being a main cog in the offense or maintaining the lead RB role. That has been proven.

I'm not convinced by any of these reasons. Honestly, some of them seem like pretty far reaches.

Regarding #2, see post #95. Don't worry, I'm sure you will disagree with the point made there, just as most everyone else has.I guess I'll just agree to disagree with everyone except switz...

I saw the post, but found it a bit odd seeing that you only sited the rushing yardage numbers. No mention of total yards or scoring, which are more important to the offense as a whole. MJD managed to score 7 TDs in his limited time as the "feature" RB. That was only 5 games, yet it was more TDs in those games alone than Taylor had all year. Furthermore, he managed 177 receiving yards in those 5 games. Taylor only had 242 all year long. Basically, it seems as though you only show the stats (one stat) that supports your opinion rather than the big picture.Either way, the sample size is really too small to draw any great conclusions IMO.

 

[switz]

not sure why you're so confident in Taylor getting more touches IF he's healthy all year? Do you have inside info with the coaching staff?

Did you watch any Jags games last season?

RB's that avg 5.7 YPC and coverted the 2nd highest TD% from inside the 20yrd line (32/10 TD's - LT#1), don't usually see a reduction in touches the next year.

Not sure you have anytihng to base that assumpion on. Historically though, there are a large percentage of rookies who explode their first season, and don't perfrom as well the next year. Just a few off the top of my head are Anthony Thomas (ROY) and Cadillac Williams.

You're the biggest MJD downer on the site, but you don't back any of your theories. I can only assume you have a mancrush on Fred.

I suppose if preseason is any indication, Fred will get the 1yrd goal line carry after MJD runs for 50 yrds and gets tackled on the 1 and needs to take a breather.

Well, I have given a number of reasons, but others disagree.To recap:

The team has said they want to use the same split, and they think MJD is most effective when he has around 10 carries a game. (I will try to find links)

In the three games that Taylor was out, MJD (aside from a 74 yard carry where the D thought the play was dead) averaged 3.65 yards per carry. This was at the end of the season, where teams had an abundance of film to study MJD in. I believe that it much closer to his YPC this season than the 5.7 YPC he put up this season. Given he should have anout the same number of carries, or even a few more (180) he'll total around 660 yards rushing.

In addition, a disproportionately large percentage of his points came from touchdowns. TDs are extremely difficult to predict, given they are very dependent on how the offense as a whole functions, and what player is put in the situation to score. Given that the coaches have said Greg Jones ready to take the short yardage work load, or at least share it with MJD, his TDs are bound to decrease. I don't foresee double digit TDs this season.

While he did see 46 passes, 40% came in three games, so while the end of the year receptions looks good, MJD isn't as big a component of the passing game (3 or less receptions in 10 of 16 games) as his promoters on this board would like to think. I only see him getting 50-55 receptions this season, and in the last three games his YPR was 8.0 even. So he might get 400 yards receiving or so.

Overall, I see around 1000, even 1200 TOTAL yards, and maybe 8 TDs. That's about 148-168 points, or about RB 23-26 last year.

 

[vichawkfan]

not sure why you're so confident in Taylor getting more touches IF he's healthy all year? Do you have inside info with the coaching staff?

Did you watch any Jags games last season?

RB's that avg 5.7 YPC and coverted the 2nd highest TD% from inside the 20yrd line (32/10 TD's - LT#1), don't usually see a reduction in touches the next year.

Not sure you have anytihng to base that assumpion on. Historically though, there are a large percentage of rookies who explode their first season, and don't perfrom as well the next year. Just a few off the top of my head are Anthony Thomas (ROY) and Cadillac Williams. Your examples ran behind crappy o-lines and were over-used in their 1st season. Again, why not lump Bush into this category ??

You're the biggest MJD downer on the site, but you don't back any of your theories. I can only assume you have a mancrush on Fred.

I suppose if preseason is any indication, Fred will get the 1yrd goal line carry after MJD runs for 50 yrds and gets tackled on the 1 and needs to take a breather.

Well, I have given a number of reasons, but others disagree.To recap:

The team has said they want to use the same split, and they think MJD is most effective when he has around 10 carries a game. (I will try to find links)

10 carries per game?? Fred will get the other 25?? Listen, the Jags have the weakest run schedule in the NFL this year. Their D gives up the fewest points in the NFL, so even if they go 50/50 - which is most likely scenario that should satisfy you - then they will want to control the clock. I owned Fred for years, and he is not a short yardage runner. Expect the offense to be running on 1st, 2nd and 3rd often. Fred can't carry the load!! The team wants him healthy, so why have him out there running out the clock in junk time???

In the three games that Taylor was out, MJD (aside from a 74 yard carry where the D thought the play was dead) averaged 3.65 yards per carry. This was at the end of the season, where teams had an abundance of film to study MJD in. I believe that it much closer to his YPC this season than the 5.7 YPC he put up this season. Given he should have anout the same number of carries, or even a few more (180) he'll total around 660 yards rushing.

In addition, a disproportionately large percentage of his points came from touchdowns. TDs are extremely difficult to predict, given they are very dependent on how the offense as a whole functions, and what player is put in the situation to score. Given that the coaches have said Greg Jones ready to take the short yardage work load, or at least share it with MJD, his TDs are bound to decrease. I don't foresee double digit TDs this season.

While he did see 46 passes, 40% came in three games, so while the end of the year receptions looks good, MJD isn't as big a component of the passing game (3 or less receptions in 10 of 16 games) as his promoters on this board would like to think. I only see him getting 50-55 receptions this season, and in the last three games his YPR was 8.0 even. So he might get 400 yards receiving or so.

Overall, I see around 1000, even 1200 TOTAL yards, and maybe 8 TDs. That's about 148-168 points, or about RB 23-26 last year.

New OC Dirk Koetter has promised to have his running backs more involved in the passing game, and the game against the Bucs served as a prime example. Backs caught three passes, including a 38-yard catch-and-run by Maurice Jones-Drew that set up a touchdown. Fred Taylor nearly had a touchdown catch but bobbled a pass (and dropped it) at the goal line.agree to disagree. When the season is over you or I can eat crow.

 

[jurb26]

In the three games that Taylor was out, MJD (aside from a 74 yard carry where the D thought the play was dead) averaged 3.65 yards per carry. This was at the end of the season, where teams had an abundance of film to study MJD in. I believe that it much closer to his YPC this season than the 5.7 YPC he put up this season. Given he should have anout the same number of carries, or even a few more (180) he'll total around 660 yards rushing.

You know, switz. It's comments like this that ruin all your credibility when talking about this subject. NE thought he was down. Hummm, wonder why they would have thought that? Maybe because the guys got sick skill that maybe 2-5 other RBs in the NFL possess and made a run that maybe 2 others ever could dream of making. They thought he was down because about 4 guys actually had a chance to put him down yet couldn't. Somehow your eternal bias has turned that into a bad thing.

Mr. Jones

 

[switz]

not sure why you're so confident in Taylor getting more touches IF he's healthy all year? Do you have inside info with the coaching staff?

Did you watch any Jags games last season?

RB's that avg 5.7 YPC and coverted the 2nd highest TD% from inside the 20yrd line (32/10 TD's - LT#1), don't usually see a reduction in touches the next year.

Not sure you have anytihng to base that assumpion on. Historically though, there are a large percentage of rookies who explode their first season, and don't perfrom as well the next year. Just a few off the top of my head are Anthony Thomas (ROY) and Cadillac Williams.

Your examples ran behind crappy o-lines and were over-used in their 1st season. Again, why not lump Bush into this category ??

My examples were off the top of my head, but it's fair to say they also were not in RBBC, whereas MJD is, and they didn't have Pro Bowl calibre RBs in front of them, which MJD does.Why not Bush? Because Bush didn't put up his numbers in hard to repeat ways - in fact his YPC should improve, not regress. And if you don't see why, you're just looking for an argument. Bush showed improvement toward the end of the season, MJD showed regression.

You're the biggest MJD downer on the site, but you don't back any of your theories. I can only assume you have a mancrush on Fred.

I suppose if preseason is any indication, Fred will get the 1yrd goal line carry after MJD runs for 50 yrds and gets tackled on the 1 and needs to take a breather.

Well, I have given a number of reasons, but others disagree.To recap:

The team has said they want to use the same split, and they think MJD is most effective when he has around 10 carries a game. (I will try to find links)

In the three games that Taylor was out, MJD (aside from a 74 yard carry where the D thought the play was dead) averaged 3.65 yards per carry. This was at the end of the season, where teams had an abundance of film to study MJD in. I believe that it much closer to his YPC this season than the 5.7 YPC he put up this season. Given he should have anout the same number of carries, or even a few more (180) he'll total around 660 yards rushing.

In addition, a disproportionately large percentage of his points came from touchdowns. TDs are extremely difficult to predict, given they are very dependent on how the offense as a whole functions, and what player is put in the situation to score. Given that the coaches have said Greg Jones ready to take the short yardage work load, or at least share it with MJD, his TDs are bound to decrease. I don't foresee double digit TDs this season.

While he did see 46 passes, 40% came in three games, so while the end of the year receptions looks good, MJD isn't as big a component of the passing game (3 or less receptions in 10 of 16 games) as his promoters on this board would like to think. I only see him getting 50-55 receptions this season, and in the last three games his YPR was 8.0 even. So he might get 400 yards receiving or so.

Overall, I see around 1000, even 1200 TOTAL yards, and maybe 8 TDs. That's about 148-168 points, or about RB 23-26 last year.

10 carries per game?? Fred will get the other 25?? Listen, the Jags have the weakest run schedule in the NFL this year. Their D gives up the fewest points in the NFL, so even if they go 50/50 - which is most likely scenario that should satisfy you - then they will want to control the clock. I owned Fred for years, and he is not a short yardage runner. Expect the offense to be running on 1st, 2nd and 3rd often. Fred can't carry the load!! The team wants him healthy, so why have him out there running out the clock in junk time???

Funny, it shouldn't matter if you have faith in MJD, considering in 9 games last year he had less than 10 carries. In fact, outside of when Taylor was injured, there were only TWO games where he saw 15 or more carries.

 

[switz]

In the three games that Taylor was out, MJD (aside from a 74 yard carry where the D thought the play was dead) averaged 3.65 yards per carry. This was at the end of the season, where teams had an abundance of film to study MJD in. I believe that it much closer to his YPC this season than the 5.7 YPC he put up this season. Given he should have anout the same number of carries, or even a few more (180) he'll total around 660 yards rushing.

Did you see the game?I don't agree normally with the "take out the long run" idea, but in this case it is relevant. The entire defense stopped playing because they thought he was tackled behind the line.

 

[jurb26]

In the three games that Taylor was out, MJD (aside from a 74 yard carry where the D thought the play was dead) averaged 3.65 yards per carry. This was at the end of the season, where teams had an abundance of film to study MJD in. I believe that it much closer to his YPC this season than the 5.7 YPC he put up this season. Given he should have anout the same number of carries, or even a few more (180) he'll total around 660 yards rushing.

Did you see the game?I don't agree normally with the "take out the long run" idea, but in this case it is relevant. The entire defense stopped playing because they thought he was tackled behind the line.

Boy now this is even going to be funnier.... check the edit.I understand it might be difficult for you to actually watch 5 minutes of highlights from a player you so readily despise, but the run you reference is 2nd to last so gather all your tolerance.

 

[Gr00vus]

The team has said they want to use the same split, and they think MJD is most effective when he has around 10 carries a game. (I will try to find links)....given that the coaches have said Greg Jones ready to take the short yardage work load, or at least share it with MJD,

I haven't seen any quote from any Jaguars coaches mentioning anything remotely like this.

Overall, I see around 1000, even 1200 TOTAL yards, and maybe 8 TDs. That's about 148-168 points, or about RB 23-26 last year.

Actually if he ended up with around 1200 total yards and 8 TDs it looks like he'd be closer to running back 16 or 17 last year.

 

[Routilla]

MJD 1200 rushing yds 12 TDs, 400 receiving yds 4 TDs

Championship

 

[vichawkfan]

In the three games that Taylor was out, MJD (aside from a 74 yard carry where the D thought the play was dead) averaged 3.65 yards per carry. This was at the end of the season, where teams had an abundance of film to study MJD in. I believe that it much closer to his YPC this season than the 5.7 YPC he put up this season. Given he should have anout the same number of carries, or even a few more (180) he'll total around 660 yards rushing.

Did you see the game?I don't agree normally with the "take out the long run" idea, but in this case it is relevant. The entire defense stopped playing because they thought he was tackled behind the line.

wow - so full of horse####....only explanation is that you're in love with Fred Taylor.

 

[GDogg]

Fred still has some gas in the tank no doubt but MJD will get 60% - 65% of the touches IMO.

Hence why I am compelled to keep posting.Unless you are including kick returns, or betting on Taylor getting injured, this is ridiculous.

Don't rush after part-time runners in fantasy draft

Such regular vanishing acts on the yardage front can kill your team, especially from a high pick.

Still, Jones-Drew or Barber will go quickly simply because of their TD totals, or because owners will reach the seemingly logical conclusion that high-scoring part-timers will be rewarded with more work.

But it doesn't look like either back will get significantly more carries, as their new offensive coordinators both said committees will remain.

The Jaguars brought back the ancient Fred Taylor, who ran 65 more times than Jones-Drew last season. They also got back 255-pound bruiser Greg Jones, who had a couple 100-yard games in 2005 but missed last season with injury. He's sure to scrape up a few carries.

There is no way MJD has more touches that Taylor, if both are healthy all year.

not sure why you're so confident in Taylor getting more touches IF he's healthy all year? Do you have inside info with the coaching staff?Did you watch any Jags games last season?

RB's that avg 5.7 YPC and coverted the 2nd highest TD% from inside the 20yrd line (32/10 TD's - LT#1), don't usually see a reduction in touches the next year.

You're the biggest MJD downer on the site, but you don't back any of your theories. I can only assume you have a mancrush on Fred.

I suppose if preseason is any indication, Fred will get the 1yrd goal line carry after MJD runs for 50 yrds and gets tackled on the 1 and needs to take a breather.

Reasons Taylor will get more touches, in no particular order:1. MJD is returning kicks and maybe punts. Taylor isn't. Effectively, MJD can get equal or greater touches in the game and still have fewer offensive touches than Taylor. IMO this would be a bigger factor if MJD returns both kicks and punts. Does anyone know if he will return both?

Here's part of the transcript of Jack Del Rio's press conference on Monday regarding the 3rd Preseason game against Green Bay. He discussed Drew's role on kickoffs. Sort of:

(will Maurice Jones-Drew return kick-offs?)

"Probably not."

(is he no longer a kick returner?)

"He's not the kick returner in week one or two of the preseason and won't be in week three, either."

(will he be a kick returner in week one of the regular season?)

"Maybe; probably."

(Shouldn't he be getting ready by doing that in the games?)

"We're just preparing our football team for the season right now and doing all that we need to do to get that done."

I'm not really sure what to make of this. Setting aside real football for a minute, my league awards points for returns, which was a nice, easy way that Drew puts up huge numbers. I'll be a little upset if he's not returning kicks.

Now, back to real football. What's the thinking here if he's planning on having Drew return kickoffs? Is it that he knows how good Drew is as a KR, so no need to give him a look? Is it that he doesn't want to get him injured?

I just find this odd. We've got Cam Cameron putting his starting RB that hasn't returned kicks on KR during the preseason games in Miami. Now, we've got Del Rio not putting Drew back there when he does it during the season.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Did you see the game?I don't agree normally with the "take out the long run" idea, but in this case it is relevant. The entire defense stopped playing because they thought he was tackled behind the line.

While I agree with what you are saying in some respects.... if you remove that run from his equation...during those final games he still averaged over 100 total yards (rush/rec) a game. And 1 TD a game. That average would still vault his PPG into the top 6 in my main league without his best fantasy play.

 

[switz]

In the three games that Taylor was out, MJD (aside from a 74 yard carry where the D thought the play was dead) averaged 3.65 yards per carry. This was at the end of the season, where teams had an abundance of film to study MJD in. I believe that it much closer to his YPC this season than the 5.7 YPC he put up this season. Given he should have anout the same number of carries, or even a few more (180) he'll total around 660 yards rushing.

Did you see the game?I don't agree normally with the "take out the long run" idea, but in this case it is relevant. The entire defense stopped playing because they thought he was tackled behind the line.

Boy now this is even going to be funnier.... check the edit.I understand it might be difficult for you to actually watch 5 minutes of highlights from a player you so readily despise, but the run you reference is 2nd to last so gather all your tolerance.

Saw the game, watched the highlight. Still not convinced myself he wasn't "down." Look(ed|s) like he tripped over his OL and rolled over, got back up and ran. Not sure what "4" guys you were referring to, as three touched him, one making a deparate grab at his ankle and two tried to one arm him.But maybe your mancrush has you seeing things differently. Its's pretty clear that the defense gave up on the play.

 

[switz]

The team has said they want to use the same split, and they think MJD is most effective when he has around 10 carries a game. (I will try to find links)....given that the coaches have said Greg Jones ready to take the short yardage work load, or at least share it with MJD,

I haven't seen any quote from any Jaguars coaches mentioning anything remotely like this.

Overall, I see around 1000, even 1200 TOTAL yards, and maybe 8 TDs. That's about 148-168 points, or about RB 23-26 last year.

Actually if he ended up with around 1200 total yards and 8 TDs it looks like he'd be closer to running back 16 or 17 last year.

120 (1200/10) + 48 (6*8) = 168 last time I checked.Last year's RB numbers (last number is Fantasy points)

22 RB  Henry,Travis		  TEN 14  270 1211	7   18   78	0	 1 170.923 RB  Jones,Kevin		   DET 12  181  689	6   61  520	2	 5 168.9

 

[switz]

Fred still has some gas in the tank no doubt but MJD will get 60% - 65% of the touches IMO.

Hence why I am compelled to keep posting.Unless you are including kick returns, or betting on Taylor getting injured, this is ridiculous.

Don't rush after part-time runners in fantasy draft

Such regular vanishing acts on the yardage front can kill your team, especially from a high pick.

Still, Jones-Drew or Barber will go quickly simply because of their TD totals, or because owners will reach the seemingly logical conclusion that high-scoring part-timers will be rewarded with more work.

But it doesn't look like either back will get significantly more carries, as their new offensive coordinators both said committees will remain.

The Jaguars brought back the ancient Fred Taylor, who ran 65 more times than Jones-Drew last season. They also got back 255-pound bruiser Greg Jones, who had a couple 100-yard games in 2005 but missed last season with injury. He's sure to scrape up a few carries.

There is no way MJD has more touches that Taylor, if both are healthy all year.

not sure why you're so confident in Taylor getting more touches IF he's healthy all year? Do you have inside info with the coaching staff?Did you watch any Jags games last season?

RB's that avg 5.7 YPC and coverted the 2nd highest TD% from inside the 20yrd line (32/10 TD's - LT#1), don't usually see a reduction in touches the next year.

You're the biggest MJD downer on the site, but you don't back any of your theories. I can only assume you have a mancrush on Fred.

I suppose if preseason is any indication, Fred will get the 1yrd goal line carry after MJD runs for 50 yrds and gets tackled on the 1 and needs to take a breather.

Reasons Taylor will get more touches, in no particular order:1. MJD is returning kicks and maybe punts. Taylor isn't. Effectively, MJD can get equal or greater touches in the game and still have fewer offensive touches than Taylor. IMO this would be a bigger factor if MJD returns both kicks and punts. Does anyone know if he will return both?

Here's part of the transcript of Jack Del Rio's press conference on Monday regarding the 3rd Preseason game against Green Bay. He discussed Drew's role on kickoffs. Sort of:

(will Maurice Jones-Drew return kick-offs?)

"Probably not."

(is he no longer a kick returner?)

"He's not the kick returner in week one or two of the preseason and won't be in week three, either."

(will he be a kick returner in week one of the regular season?)

"Maybe; probably."

(Shouldn't he be getting ready by doing that in the games?)

"We're just preparing our football team for the season right now and doing all that we need to do to get that done."

I'm not really sure what to make of this. Setting aside real football for a minute, my league awards points for returns, which was a nice, easy way that Drew puts up huge numbers. I'll be a little upset if he's not returning kicks.

Now, back to real football. What's the thinking here if he's planning on having Drew return kickoffs? Is it that he knows how good Drew is as a KR, so no need to give him a look? Is it that he doesn't want to get him injured?

I just find this odd. We've got Cam Cameron putting his starting RB that hasn't returned kicks on KR during the preseason games in Miami. Now, we've got Del Rio not putting Drew back there when he does it during the season.

Perhaps MJD is not going to return kicks, and that will change the whole equation.Anyway, I'm out of this thread. We're close to the seaosn opening, and then we'll see what happens. I could be totally wrong on this, and many of you assume I am. We'll see. Best wishes to all of you that have MJD, and are counting on him as your #2 back, or expecting him to be your #1 guy.