Any news on Jones-Drew (1 Viewer)

[isiahcleaves]

see... that's exactly what I'm talking about.

You'd be thrilled to get him as a #3? Are you kidding?

Unless you're in a league full of incompetents and you have the #1 pick (meaning MJD somehow gets to #25), theres no way you get him there...

I'd be thrilled to have Maroney or Bush as my #3 too. It ain't gonna happen!

I don't think many view MJD as the next uberstud. Most people believe he'll get something around 1400 total yards and 7-8 TD's... which justifies his draft position... even though these are lower #'s than he posted last year.

Most believe Maroney and Bush will somehow post better #'s than they did last year to justify where they are currently being drafted.

Forget it... I think you're simply stubborn.

 

[jurb26]

see... that's exactly what I'm talking about.You'd be thrilled to get him as a #3? Are you kidding?Unless you're in a league full of incompetents and you have the #1 pick (meaning MJD somehow gets to #25), theres no way you get him there...I'd be thrilled to have Maroney or Bush as my #3 too. It ain't gonna happen!I don't think many view MJD as the next uberstud. Most people believe he'll get something around 1400 total yards and 7-8 TD's... which justifies his draft position... even though these are lower #'s than he posted last year.Most believe Maroney and Bush will somehow post better #'s than they did last year to justify where they are currently being drafted.Forget it... I think you're simply stubborn.

Don't worry, he'd take Addai #2 overall to counteract his MJD hate.

 

[isiahcleaves]

Oh... I think the reason there are more threads about MJD daily than Maroney (and probably even Bush) is because many believe he is undervalued. Maroney and Bush are probably fairly valued right now in terms of where they are getting drafted.

I will say this though... out of the 3... (and this is probably a minority opinion)... MJD has the most potential to be the uberstud RB. With his current situation (Taylor and to a much, much lesser extent... Jones) that isn't the case. Maroney probably in the best situation right now... and again... that's why his ADP is consistenly higher than the other 2 guys.

 

[isiahcleaves]

Let me rephrase one thing regarding the # of MJD threads on this forum. Many think he is undervalued while others (apparently yourself included) think he is overvalued. I don't see that kind of disparity with Bush or Maroney. There can be arguments for why those 2 guys are overvalued (they are unpopular), but very few believe either is undervalued.

Look at the Football guys writers....

Bush is ranked between 6 and 12 overall on 10 of the 12 prognostications

Maroney is ranked between 10 and 14 overall on 9 of the 12 prognostications

MJD is all over the place. 3 people have him ranked considerably higher than his ADP. 4 people have him ranked around the same as his ADP. 5 people have him ranked considerably lower than his ADP.

This is what causes discussion.

 

[duaneok66]

Oh... I think the reason there are more threads about MJD daily than Maroney (and probably even Bush) is because many believe he is undervalued. Maroney and Bush are probably fairly valued right now in terms of where they are getting drafted. I will say this though... out of the 3... (and this is probably a minority opinion)... MJD has the most potential to be the uberstud RB. With his current situation (Taylor and to a much, much lesser extent... Jones) that isn't the case. Maroney probably in the best situation right now... and again... that's why his ADP is consistenly higher than the other 2 guys.

that is a crowded backfield . . . for those who keep saying that Jones is strictly a fullback, think again . . .

 

[switz]

see... that's exactly what I'm talking about.You'd be thrilled to get him as a #3? Are you kidding?Unless you're in a league full of incompetents and you have the #1 pick (meaning MJD somehow gets to #25), theres no way you get him there...I'd be thrilled to have Maroney or Bush as my #3 too. It ain't gonna happen!I don't think many view MJD as the next uberstud. Most people believe he'll get something around 1400 total yards and 7-8 TD's... which justifies his draft position... even though these are lower #'s than he posted last year.Most believe Maroney and Bush will somehow post better #'s than they did last year to justify where they are currently being drafted.Forget it... I think you're simply stubborn.

And that's my point... why do people think he's going to be a solid #1 or #2 RB? He's second fiddle in an RBBC at best. He only saw 10+ carries while Taylor was healthy 3x... thats 3x in 12 games. Week 1 = 0 pointsWeek 2 = 0 pointsWeek 3 = 19 points (TD) 13Week 4 = 11 points (TD) 5Week 5 = 17 points (2TDs) 5Week 7 = 12 points (TD) 6Week 8 = 9 pointsWeek 9 = 7 pointsWeek 10 = 12 points (TD) 6Week 11 = 11 points (TD) 5Week 12 = 17 points (TD) 11Week 13 = 10 points (TD)Now, for my #2 RB, I want someone who is going to consistently get enough yardage to near double digits and not depend on TDs. Why? Because TDs are extremely difficult to predict. In addition, they now have Greg Jones who may steal some TDs from MJD. His points when FT was healthy were HIGHLY TD DEPENDENT. I'm not going to depend on a guy whose likely to get me 5 or 6 points as my #2 RB.Take FT out of the game, and MJD is gold. BUT FT will be heathy week 1, and who knows how long after that.You could say I'm stubborn, I just haven't seen anything to change my point of view.

 

[matzflava]

I see a lot of comparisons between MJD and a guy named Westbrook a couple of years ago. In my opinion, both find have the ability to find the way to paydirt. MJD = TD machine

 

[Tau837]

Previous posts on MJD:

Positives:1. He performed great last year, so we know he can do it.2. He could improve in some ways in his second year.Negatives:1. His per touch numbers were outrageously good. I think regression from them is a given.2. He averaged 11.3 fppg before Taylor got hurt last year and 23 fppg while Taylor was hurt. But Taylor is healthy and, as far as we know, will stay healthy. And Taylor remains the starter.3. Greg Jones is back. Is he a threat to get 150 touches? No, I don't think so... but I do think he is a threat to get more than the 32 carries and 6 catches JAX RBs other than Taylor & MJD got last year.4. As far as I know, he is expected to return kicks and possibly punts. IMO, given other good RBs, this will cause the coaching staff to hold down his touches somewhat on offense.5. Due to points 2-4 above, it is hard to see MJD's touches going up significantly. He had 212 last season, and IMO will see no more than 250 this year. To put this number in perspective, consider that the top 10 RBs last season other than MJD averaged 378 touches.

Oh yeah, forgot to mention that the starting center for JAX will miss at least 3 games and then will have to work back into the lineup. That doesn't help MJD.

In their first 11 games last year, before Taylor was hurt, Taylor averaged 17.6 carries per game and MJD averaged 8.2 carries per game. Giving them a 50/50 split is quite a significant change. I just don't see it. Furthermore, they did not have Jones last year. He had 151 carries in 14 games in 2005. I'm not saying he'll approach that again, but he could easily on his own surpass the total of 32 carries by Jags RBs other than Taylor and MJD last season... and others will still likely have a small number of carries on top of all that.

 

[Dmasses]

I took him 2.06 in a 12 team redraft last Sat as my #2 RB. Not much on the board in regards to RB's when you're in a knowledgeable league.

I'll be happy w/ low RB2/high RB3 numbers, but I am pretty sure he'll do better than that.

And since Switz isn't high on him, that's a surefire guarantee that he'll have a stud year :(

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

I apologize if this is mentioned in the thread, but will MJD still have return duties this year?

 

[Tau837]

I apologize if this is mentioned in the thread, but will MJD still have return duties this year?

Yes

 

[isiahcleaves]

see... that's exactly what I'm talking about.You'd be thrilled to get him as a #3? Are you kidding?Unless you're in a league full of incompetents and you have the #1 pick (meaning MJD somehow gets to #25), theres no way you get him there...I'd be thrilled to have Maroney or Bush as my #3 too. It ain't gonna happen!I don't think many view MJD as the next uberstud. Most people believe he'll get something around 1400 total yards and 7-8 TD's... which justifies his draft position... even though these are lower #'s than he posted last year.Most believe Maroney and Bush will somehow post better #'s than they did last year to justify where they are currently being drafted.Forget it... I think you're simply stubborn.

And that's my point... why do people think he's going to be a solid #1 or #2 RB? He's second fiddle in an RBBC at best. He only saw 10+ carries while Taylor was healthy 3x... thats 3x in 12 games. Week 1 = 0 pointsWeek 2 = 0 pointsWeek 3 = 19 points (TD) 13Week 4 = 11 points (TD) 5Week 5 = 17 points (2TDs) 5Week 7 = 12 points (TD) 6Week 8 = 9 pointsWeek 9 = 7 pointsWeek 10 = 12 points (TD) 6Week 11 = 11 points (TD) 5Week 12 = 17 points (TD) 11Week 13 = 10 points (TD)Now, for my #2 RB, I want someone who is going to consistently get enough yardage to near double digits and not depend on TDs. Why? Because TDs are extremely difficult to predict. In addition, they now have Greg Jones who may steal some TDs from MJD. His points when FT was healthy were HIGHLY TD DEPENDENT. I'm not going to depend on a guy whose likely to get me 5 or 6 points as my #2 RB.Take FT out of the game, and MJD is gold. BUT FT will be heathy week 1, and who knows how long after that.You could say I'm stubborn, I just haven't seen anything to change my point of view.

Well... maybe this will change your point of view.Take out his 1st 2 gamesWe'll take out the last 4 games to compensate for Freddie getting injured.In the middle 10 games. Jones-Drew combined for 800 yards rushing and receiving, 30 catches, and 9 TD'sProrate that to 16 games, he ends up with 1280 total yards, 48 receptions, and 14 TD's.Even if you don't think he approaches those TD #'s... he's still well worth his draft position.

 

[ThePittbully]

see... that's exactly what I'm talking about.You'd be thrilled to get him as a #3? Are you kidding?Unless you're in a league full of incompetents and you have the #1 pick (meaning MJD somehow gets to #25), theres no way you get him there...I'd be thrilled to have Maroney or Bush as my #3 too. It ain't gonna happen!I don't think many view MJD as the next uberstud. Most people believe he'll get something around 1400 total yards and 7-8 TD's... which justifies his draft position... even though these are lower #'s than he posted last year.Most believe Maroney and Bush will somehow post better #'s than they did last year to justify where they are currently being drafted.Forget it... I think you're simply stubborn.

They're 2a and 2b for me

 

[ThePittbully]

I apologize if this is mentioned in the thread, but will MJD still have return duties this year?

Yes

This is the only thing about him that bothers me, increases chance of injury and adds wear and tear. And my league doesnt give points for returns

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

I apologize if this is mentioned in the thread, but will MJD still have return duties this year?

Yes

Thanks.

 

[switz]

And since Switz isn't high on him, that's a surefire guarantee that he'll have a stud year

Name another guy I wasn't high on that went onto be a STUD?

 

[vichawkfan]

you know what - until the games are played, this is all just a bunch of hot air. Between MJD and Randy Moss, I can't remember two picks that caused so much debate....and I picked both.....can't wait!!!

MJD 1500 all purpose and 15TDs

Moss 1100yrds 11YDs

 

[Tau837]

you know what - until the games are played, this is all just a bunch of hot air. Between MJD and Randy Moss, I can't remember two picks that caused so much debate....and I picked both.....can't wait!!! MJD 1500 all purpose and 15TDsMoss 1100yrds 11YDs

 

[Clash of the Titans]

Please stop this MJD propaganda.TMwtP reminds me of Donkey back in the Hearst vs. Barlow debates. MJD is NOT the better RB between the two.

At this point, a 2nd year MJD is better than a 31 year old Fred.MJD outperformed Fred in EVERY facet last season. Right now, he's better than Fred. No question about it.

hey hulk this is clash.....i am interrupting this thread and your daily fascination with lost-lol- are you still in for the fftoday dynasty league- post on fftoday or go here and check-in at fftdleague.proboards.com...........good to see you back to your regularly scheduled program.....ohh yeah MJD>>>>>>>>>>>fred taylor

 

[Wadsworth]

I'm a huge MJD fan but some people need to relax a bit. Fred Taylor is still a great(yes great) RB. Sure he's near the end of his career but until he shows that age is catching up there's no reason to sit him down. I'm not at all slighting MJD's potential or ability, but you simply don't bench guys like Fred Taylor just because a rookie had a great season. Fantasy issues aside, Jacksonville's RB tandem was amazingly successful last season and both look healthy now. Why would they change anything? And it has nothing to do with respect. Fred is still a better RB on 1st and 10 than MJD. MJD is better on 3rd and 12, and it's up to the Jags coaches to decide how to use them on everything else.

I understand the MJD love, but there's no reason for all the Fred Taylor hate. When Fred finishes the season with 1200+ combined yards and 6-8 TDs a lot of people are going to be surprised and a lot of other people are going to wonder why all those people are surprised. Fred is still an extremely talented RB and is not going to go quietly into the night.

 

[Tong Po]

I'm a huge MJD fan but some people need to relax a bit. Fred Taylor is still a great(yes great) RB. Sure he's near the end of his career but until he shows that age is catching up there's no reason to sit him down. I'm not at all slighting MJD's potential or ability, but you simply don't bench guys like Fred Taylor just because a rookie had a great season. Fantasy issues aside, Jacksonville's RB tandem was amazingly successful last season and both look healthy now. Why would they change anything? And it has nothing to do with respect. Fred is still a better RB on 1st and 10 than MJD. MJD is better on 3rd and 12, and it's up to the Jags coaches to decide how to use them on everything else.

I understand the MJD love, but there's no reason for all the Fred Taylor hate. When Fred finishes the season with 1200+ combined yards and 6-8 TDs a lot of people are going to be surprised and a lot of other people are going to wonder why all those people are surprised. Fred is still an extremely talented RB and is not going to go quietly into the night.

I think with Jacksonville's commitment to running the football, combined with their soft schedule, there's room for BOTH Taylor and MJD to be solid fantasy backs. Just like last year. What intrigues me about MJD is his big play potential. He had touchdowns of 32, 48, 51 and 74 yards last year. In leagues that award extra points for long scores, this significantly raises his overall value. And let's not forget.... he did NOTHING the first 2 weeks of the season and still finished with 1300+ yards and 15 TDs. I just can't see how that kind of producation can be written off as some kind of fluke. I understand if people are concerned about Greg Jones vulturing touchdowns. But I have yet to see any indication that he will suddenly become the goalline guy.

 

[(HULK)]

Oh... I think the reason there are more threads about MJD daily than Maroney (and probably even Bush) is because many believe he is undervalued. Maroney and Bush are probably fairly valued right now in terms of where they are getting drafted.

I will say this though... out of the 3... (and this is probably a minority opinion)... MJD has the most potential to be the uberstud RB. With his current situation (Taylor and to a much, much lesser extent... Jones) that isn't the case. Maroney probably in the best situation right now... and again... that's why his ADP is consistenly higher than the other 2 guys.

that is a crowded backfield . . . for those who keep saying that Jones is strictly a fullback, think again . . .

Why do people keep insisting Greg Jones is going to have a significant role? MJD is literally TWICE as effective in the redzone, the coaches would be STUPID to not give goal line carries to MJD, other than the off trick play.

 

[Tau837]

I'm a huge MJD fan but some people need to relax a bit. Fred Taylor is still a great(yes great) RB. Sure he's near the end of his career but until he shows that age is catching up there's no reason to sit him down. I'm not at all slighting MJD's potential or ability, but you simply don't bench guys like Fred Taylor just because a rookie had a great season. Fantasy issues aside, Jacksonville's RB tandem was amazingly successful last season and both look healthy now. Why would they change anything? And it has nothing to do with respect. Fred is still a better RB on 1st and 10 than MJD. MJD is better on 3rd and 12, and it's up to the Jags coaches to decide how to use them on everything else.

I understand the MJD love, but there's no reason for all the Fred Taylor hate. When Fred finishes the season with 1200+ combined yards and 6-8 TDs a lot of people are going to be surprised and a lot of other people are going to wonder why all those people are surprised. Fred is still an extremely talented RB and is not going to go quietly into the night.

I think with Jacksonville's commitment to running the football, combined with their soft schedule, there's room for BOTH Taylor and MJD to be solid fantasy backs. Just like last year. What intrigues me about MJD is his big play potential. He had touchdowns of 32, 48, 51 and 74 yards last year. In leagues that award extra points for long scores, this significantly raises his overall value. And let's not forget.... he did NOTHING the first 2 weeks of the season and still finished with 1300+ yards and 15 TDs. I just can't see how that kind of producation can be written off as some kind of fluke. I understand if people are concerned about Greg Jones vulturing touchdowns. But I have yet to see any indication that he will suddenly become the goalline guy.

Keep in mind that in the first 12 games, MJD averaged 68 total yards and 0.75 TDs per game. He was on pace for 1089 total yards and 12 TDs. And that would have been a great rookie season. As it was, Taylor got hurt and MJD blew up over the last 4 games, with 560 total yards and 6 TDs.If you project Taylor to get hurt again, fine. But if not, he won't likely have such a surge to boost his numbers this year. Now add to that the fact that his per touch production will likely be lower.

 

[Wadsworth]

Oh... I think the reason there are more threads about MJD daily than Maroney (and probably even Bush) is because many believe he is undervalued. Maroney and Bush are probably fairly valued right now in terms of where they are getting drafted.

I will say this though... out of the 3... (and this is probably a minority opinion)... MJD has the most potential to be the uberstud RB. With his current situation (Taylor and to a much, much lesser extent... Jones) that isn't the case. Maroney probably in the best situation right now... and again... that's why his ADP is consistenly higher than the other 2 guys.

that is a crowded backfield . . . for those who keep saying that Jones is strictly a fullback, think again . . .

Why do people keep insisting Greg Jones is going to have a significant role? MJD is literally TWICE as effective in the redzone, the coaches would be STUPID to not give goal line carries to MJD, other than the off trick play.

Until further notice Greg Jones is just a fullback. That said, Greg Jones was playing fullback at a near Pro Bowl level when he got hurt and his value to the team should not be ignored just because he's not a fantasy threat. But there's no reason to currently expect Greg Jones to play much of a role in the Jags rushing attack should Fred and MJD stay healthy. I'm sure Greg will vulture a few TDs but as of now that role has not been defined in any way by what the Jags are saying or doing. Greg's time will come when Freddie hangs them up. This also relates to the discussion in this thread about MJD taking over for Fred Taylor. The Jags were very successul starting Fred and getting MJD 15 or so touches a game, why would they change that? MJD was very effective as the redzone RB, why would they change that? I understand that part of fantasy is predicting changes, but don't go overboard. I fully expect the Jags to start the season using Fred and MJD almost exactly like they used them last season and should they continue to be successful I don't expect it to change much. Now if Fred's YPC drops or if MJD isn't converting the 3rd and goal from 1, then sure things might change. But until then you are just guessing.

 

[isiahcleaves]

I'm a huge MJD fan but some people need to relax a bit. Fred Taylor is still a great(yes great) RB. Sure he's near the end of his career but until he shows that age is catching up there's no reason to sit him down. I'm not at all slighting MJD's potential or ability, but you simply don't bench guys like Fred Taylor just because a rookie had a great season. Fantasy issues aside, Jacksonville's RB tandem was amazingly successful last season and both look healthy now. Why would they change anything? And it has nothing to do with respect. Fred is still a better RB on 1st and 10 than MJD. MJD is better on 3rd and 12, and it's up to the Jags coaches to decide how to use them on everything else.

I understand the MJD love, but there's no reason for all the Fred Taylor hate. When Fred finishes the season with 1200+ combined yards and 6-8 TDs a lot of people are going to be surprised and a lot of other people are going to wonder why all those people are surprised. Fred is still an extremely talented RB and is not going to go quietly into the night.

I think with Jacksonville's commitment to running the football, combined with their soft schedule, there's room for BOTH Taylor and MJD to be solid fantasy backs. Just like last year. What intrigues me about MJD is his big play potential. He had touchdowns of 32, 48, 51 and 74 yards last year. In leagues that award extra points for long scores, this significantly raises his overall value. And let's not forget.... he did NOTHING the first 2 weeks of the season and still finished with 1300+ yards and 15 TDs. I just can't see how that kind of producation can be written off as some kind of fluke. I understand if people are concerned about Greg Jones vulturing touchdowns. But I have yet to see any indication that he will suddenly become the goalline guy.

Keep in mind that in the first 12 games, MJD averaged 68 total yards and 0.75 TDs per game. He was on pace for 1089 total yards and 12 TDs. And that would have been a great rookie season. As it was, Taylor got hurt and MJD blew up over the last 4 games, with 560 total yards and 6 TDs.If you project Taylor to get hurt again, fine. But if not, he won't likely have such a surge to boost his numbers this year. Now add to that the fact that his per touch production will likely be lower.

Just Win Baby....How can you include his 1st 2 games in your assessment. MJD hardly played at all (not due to Fred Taylor... due to being an unheralded rookie RB).

Again... from a previous post in this same thread....

Take out his 1st 2 games

We'll take out the last 4 games to compensate for Freddie getting injured.

In the middle 10 games. Jones-Drew combined for 800 yards rushing and receiving, 30 catches, and 9 TD's

Prorate that to 16 games, he ends up with 1280 total yards, 48 receptions, and 14 TD's.

Even if you don't think he approaches those TD #'s... he's still well worth his draft position.

Will his averages decline? Probably some... at least his rushing averages

Will his touches increase? They should, based on what he accomplished last year... especially the # of receptions he'll get.

What do those last 2 statements amount to? Well... he'll end up with virtually the same yardage totals as last year, more receptions, and probably half of the touchdowns.

Again... he's a safe mid 2nd round pick. If Taylor gets injured... If Jones doesn't vulture TD's... If the coaching staff figures out that he is by far the best RB on the team... then you have a top 10 RB.

Sorry... but I don't see the downside at all of drafting him in the mid 2nd round unless he were to get injured.

 

[Cawbird]

If you all want to nit-pick, you can also argue that MJD was brought in on passing downs where the defense had backed up from the line of scrimmage. That opened up the running lanes and they ran MJD, although they didn't pick up the 1st down many times.

 

[isiahcleaves]

Cawbird...

That's a valid statement, but I don't see how it would change any projections.

Virtually everyone in this thread would agree that MJD will still be brought in on obvious passing downs and pick up that same kind of yardage again.

 

[Cawbird]

I just don't think that MJD will have the same success this year with the same amount of carries as last year. He is no longer a surprise, and opposing defenses will protect the line of scrimmage when he comes in on passing downs now. YES.............MJD is the better back...............but I think he'll need more carries in 2007 to match or surpass his 2006 totals.

 

[isiahcleaves]

I don't agree with you.

Over the last 14 games (yes... including the final 4 where Taylor was banged up)....

If you assume he averages the same # of touches per game (12 rushes and 3 catches) as last season (which is ridiculous... he should get more) and that his rushing average drops to around 5 yards per carry (which is more reasonable than his gawdy 5.7 yds per carry)... if you prorate that out over 16 games.

12 rushes times 5 yards per carry = 60 yds per game times 16 games = 960 yards rushing

3 catches times 10 yards per catch = 30 yds per game times 16 games = 480 yards receiving

Total = 1440 combined yards.

If you want to drop those #'s a bit further... I understand.

Still... I don't understand how people can project less than 1250 total yards for him or cut his TD's by more than half. Those are absolute low ball estimates.

Those #'s still justify a mid to low 2nd round pick.

 

[tomarken]

I just don't think that MJD will have the same success this year with the same amount of carries as last year. He is no longer a surprise, and opposing defenses will protect the line of scrimmage when he comes in on passing downs now. YES.............MJD is the better back...............but I think he'll need more carries in 2007 to match or surpass his 2006 totals.

IMO, this is one of the worst misconceptions that I see all the time on this board. Do you really think that teams weren't game-planning for MJD by the second half of last season? Are NFL coaches really that slow that it took them until this year to realize that MJD was putting up yards and TD's like crazy?

 

[streamkeeper]

OK, I have read enough MJD posts now. Yes, I own him in a keeper league and I like his potiential, but....... he seems to be the one player that has posters divided. I have seen the same arguments for and against him for two months now. I don't think anyone is changing anyone else's mind. The proof will be in the pudding.

I am sure these posts will be revisited in time.

For now, I am done reading anymore. The argument is getting tired. All points have been made, and refuted, and made again........

 

[Sultans]

The way the debate in this thread is going about the veteran remaining the starter and the younger talented player backing him up reminds me a lot of the preseaspon threads from 2 years ago about Priest and LJ.

I feel you. MJD owners may very well be championship owners due to getting a Top 5 back late 2nd round.

 

[Tau837]

I'm a huge MJD fan but some people need to relax a bit. Fred Taylor is still a great(yes great) RB. Sure he's near the end of his career but until he shows that age is catching up there's no reason to sit him down. I'm not at all slighting MJD's potential or ability, but you simply don't bench guys like Fred Taylor just because a rookie had a great season. Fantasy issues aside, Jacksonville's RB tandem was amazingly successful last season and both look healthy now. Why would they change anything? And it has nothing to do with respect. Fred is still a better RB on 1st and 10 than MJD. MJD is better on 3rd and 12, and it's up to the Jags coaches to decide how to use them on everything else.

I understand the MJD love, but there's no reason for all the Fred Taylor hate. When Fred finishes the season with 1200+ combined yards and 6-8 TDs a lot of people are going to be surprised and a lot of other people are going to wonder why all those people are surprised. Fred is still an extremely talented RB and is not going to go quietly into the night.

I think with Jacksonville's commitment to running the football, combined with their soft schedule, there's room for BOTH Taylor and MJD to be solid fantasy backs. Just like last year. What intrigues me about MJD is his big play potential. He had touchdowns of 32, 48, 51 and 74 yards last year. In leagues that award extra points for long scores, this significantly raises his overall value. And let's not forget.... he did NOTHING the first 2 weeks of the season and still finished with 1300+ yards and 15 TDs. I just can't see how that kind of producation can be written off as some kind of fluke. I understand if people are concerned about Greg Jones vulturing touchdowns. But I have yet to see any indication that he will suddenly become the goalline guy.

Keep in mind that in the first 12 games, MJD averaged 68 total yards and 0.75 TDs per game. He was on pace for 1089 total yards and 12 TDs. And that would have been a great rookie season. As it was, Taylor got hurt and MJD blew up over the last 4 games, with 560 total yards and 6 TDs.If you project Taylor to get hurt again, fine. But if not, he won't likely have such a surge to boost his numbers this year. Now add to that the fact that his per touch production will likely be lower.

Just Win Baby....How can you include his 1st 2 games in your assessment. MJD hardly played at all (not due to Fred Taylor... due to being an unheralded rookie RB).

Again... from a previous post in this same thread....

Take out his 1st 2 games

We'll take out the last 4 games to compensate for Freddie getting injured.

In the middle 10 games. Jones-Drew combined for 800 yards rushing and receiving, 30 catches, and 9 TD's

Prorate that to 16 games, he ends up with 1280 total yards, 48 receptions, and 14 TD's.

Even if you don't think he approaches those TD #'s... he's still well worth his draft position.

Will his averages decline? Probably some... at least his rushing averages

Will his touches increase? They should, based on what he accomplished last year... especially the # of receptions he'll get.

What do those last 2 statements amount to? Well... he'll end up with virtually the same yardage totals as last year, more receptions, and probably half of the touchdowns.

Again... he's a safe mid 2nd round pick. If Taylor gets injured... If Jones doesn't vulture TD's... If the coaching staff figures out that he is by far the best RB on the team... then you have a top 10 RB.

Sorry... but I don't see the downside at all of drafting him in the mid 2nd round unless he were to get injured.

Like switz, I have simply been sucked into arguing against what seems to be the unbridled optimism about MJD. I prefer RB ADP to the notion of "mid 2nd round". Right now, depending on which list you use, MJD appears to have an ADP of around RB14-RB15. I don't think that is unreasonable, maybe just a bit high for my taste. I'd probably consider him to offer real value towards the bottom of the top 20.

 

[Tau837]

The way the debate in this thread is going about the veteran remaining the starter and the younger talented player backing him up reminds me a lot of the preseaspon threads from 2 years ago about Priest and LJ.

I feel you. MJD owners may very well be championship owners due to getting a Top 5 back late 2nd round.

If you are suggesting that MJD will be a great value at his ADP in the event that Taylor suffers a season ending injury in game 7 this year, as Holmes did in 2005, I agree. Is that what you are predicting?

 

[isiahcleaves]

Just Win...

I think what most MJD realists are saying is this...

Even if you think he regresses 50% from last year in terms of TD #'s... his yardage and catch totals combined should be good enough to justify his existing ADP.

There really is no downside (maybe 3-4 spots if you believe in absolute worst case scenario) from where his current ADP is. I don't understand how some can have him ranked outside of the top 20 RB's. That doesn't make any sense to me. Even if he produces my worst case #'s... he's still a top 20 back.

There is a ton of upside if he gets a higher % of the touches, if Fred Taylor gets injured, and if Jones doesn't vulture TD's, etc.

If any one of these things happen... he jumps 3-4 spots from his current RB ADP. If 2 or more happen... you have a top 10 RB.

There is no way he falls out of the top 20 (barring an injury to himself).

I mean... do you expect his yards per carry to drop to like 4.0 or something? Do you see his receptions actually dropping... considering they have no other receiving threats out of the backfield? Will his TD production drop by more than half?

Come on... any coaching staff would give more opportunities for this guy than last year given what he accomplished.

 

[dirtywaters20]

My league awards points for return yards, bonuses for yardage on td's & .5 ppr. I have the second pick in round 2 of a twelve team league & would take him over McGahee in a second.

 

[TheFanatic]

Keep in mind that in the first 12 games, MJD averaged 68 total yards and 0.75 TDs per game. He was on pace for 1089 total yards and 12 TDs. And that would have been a great rookie season. As it was, Taylor got hurt and MJD blew up over the last 4 games, with 560 total yards and 6 TDs.If you project Taylor to get hurt again, fine. But if not, he won't likely have such a surge to boost his numbers this year. Now add to that the fact that his per touch production will likely be lower.

This is an interesting point. Taylor split time with MJD and he still got hurt. That would lead me to believe that they need to lessen his load to keep him healthy. And while I am an MJD owner and think he is loaded with talent, this team functioned pretty well with a 2 back set. It helps to keep the aging vet healthy and eases the rook into the lineup without too much pressure. That being said, the rook performed well when the onus was entirely on him and the two back set still resulted in the older back succumbing to injury. I think this team will add more carries to MJD and do what they can to keep FRed in the lineup. The team is better with Fred in there. But they have to lighten his load and they have to add to MJD's load to see if he can handle the heavier load because Fred is not going to be around all that long. With all due respect to Switz who is usually right on, there is no way in hell Fred Taylor sees the final year of that contract. The cap or his body will keep that from happening. I don't believe that Fred got a huge bonus so the team doesn't take a big cap hit to cut the guy which is a distinct possibility even after this season. He is playing his role perfectly. He gets to start but he needs to mentor the kid. The moment he can't do either of those his future with the Jags is in jeopardy. I can see the guy taking a pay cut next year to play backup or be sent packing....

 

[switz]

I just don't think that MJD will have the same success this year with the same amount of carries as last year. He is no longer a surprise, and opposing defenses will protect the line of scrimmage when he comes in on passing downs now. YES.............MJD is the better back...............but I think he'll need more carries in 2007 to match or surpass his 2006 totals.

IMO, this is one of the worst misconceptions that I see all the time on this board. Do you really think that teams weren't game-planning for MJD by the second half of last season? Are NFL coaches really that slow that it took them until this year to realize that MJD was putting up yards and TD's like crazy?

If you look at his last 4 games, it does indeed seem like teams figured him out. And just an FYI - take the 74 yarder out of the NEP game, the defense didn't even try to tackle him thinking the play was over. His YPC otherwise in those games is sub 4.0 YPC. You're right, defenses prepared for him last year, and towards the end of the season seem to have figured him out.

 

[switz]

My league awards points for return yards, bonuses for yardage on td's & .5 ppr. I have the second pick in round 2 of a twelve team league & would take him over McGahee in a second.

Yesw, in that case he's an awesome pick!

 

[Mystery Achiever]

My league awards points for return yards, bonuses for yardage on td's & .5 ppr. I have the second pick in round 2 of a twelve team league & would take him over McGahee in a second.

Yesw, in that case he's an awesome pick!

This is the one league I am considering him for, also. Exc. for receptions we only get a bonus 1pt/5 rec.

 

[Q-Bert]

I just don't think that MJD will have the same success this year with the same amount of carries as last year. He is no longer a surprise, and opposing defenses will protect the line of scrimmage when he comes in on passing downs now. YES.............MJD is the better back...............but I think he'll need more carries in 2007 to match or surpass his 2006 totals.

IMO, this is one of the worst misconceptions that I see all the time on this board. Do you really think that teams weren't game-planning for MJD by the second half of last season? Are NFL coaches really that slow that it took them until this year to realize that MJD was putting up yards and TD's like crazy?

If you look at his last 4 games, it does indeed seem like teams figured him out. And just an FYI - take the 74 yarder out of the NEP game, the defense didn't even try to tackle him thinking the play was over. His YPC otherwise in those games is sub 4.0 YPC. You're right, defenses prepared for him last year, and towards the end of the season seem to have figured him out.

Fine, I'll look at his last four games.His averages in those games:

17.75 carries

110.25 rushing yards

29.75 receiving yards

1.5 touchdowns

Prorated over a full season:

284 carries

1764 rushing yards

476 receiving yards

24 touchdowns

You have convinced me that MJD is a huge risk with limited upside. I am very glad that I do not have him on my roster because opposing defenses have clearly figured him out.

 

[Q-Bert]

I just don't think that MJD will have the same success this year with the same amount of carries as last year. He is no longer a surprise, and opposing defenses will protect the line of scrimmage when he comes in on passing downs now. YES.............MJD is the better back...............but I think he'll need more carries in 2007 to match or surpass his 2006 totals.

IMO, this is one of the worst misconceptions that I see all the time on this board. Do you really think that teams weren't game-planning for MJD by the second half of last season? Are NFL coaches really that slow that it took them until this year to realize that MJD was putting up yards and TD's like crazy?

If you look at his last 4 games, it does indeed seem like teams figured him out. And just an FYI - take the 74 yarder out of the NEP game, the defense didn't even try to tackle him thinking the play was over. His YPC otherwise in those games is sub 4.0 YPC. You're right, defenses prepared for him last year, and towards the end of the season seem to have figured him out.

I'll even give you the benefit of the doubt that you really meant his last three games (when Fred Taylor was injured).His prorated totals from those games:

298 carries

1466 rushing yards

554 receiving yards

21 touchdowns

How about with that 74 yard touchdown run removed?

293 carries

1072 rushing yards

554 receiving yards

16 touchdowns

 

[tomarken]

My league awards points for return yards, bonuses for yardage on td's & .5 ppr. I have the second pick in round 2 of a twelve team league & would take him over McGahee in a second.

Yesw, in that case he's an awesome pick!

I agree - in fact, I think in that format he's a steal at 2.02, and if it's not a guppy league he probably won't be there. How many other top-flight RB talents also rack up return yards? Not to mention MJD's knack for breaking long TD's and his reception totals - he's probably a STUD in your league...

 

[Tau837]

After all this talk of the effectiveness of Taylor vs. MJD, I thought it might be interesting to look at how the JAX running game performed as a whole before and after Taylor's injury.

Weeks 1-14 (13 games): 356/1836/14 (5.16 ypc) rushing; 75 targets, 59/572/2 (9.69 ypr) receiving; 336.80 fantasy points (25.9 fppg)

Weeks 15-17 (3 games): 73/364/4 (4.99 ypc) rushing; 22 targets, 16/141/1 (8.81 ypr) receiving; 80.50 fantasy points (26.8 fppg)

I counted week 14, the game in which Taylor played one half, in the first (RBBC) group, since he did play half the game and had a great game (as did MJD).

So, we see that, while MJD performed well in his short stint as a feature back, the JAX RBs as a whole were marginally less effective, gaining fewer yards per carry and per reception. Their fantasy points are higher because they scored TDs at a greater rate, but I'd argue that they were actually less effective. 3 games is a small sample size, though.

Also important is that at after week 14, JAX was 8-5 and in position to make the playoffs. They then proceeded to lose at Tennessee, at home to New England, and at KC to finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs. I think that was a pretty disappointing finish...

IMO this is why the coaches will be inclined to stick with what was working so effectively last season before Taylor was hurt. The running game as a whole was better, even if marginally so, when Taylor was getting most of the carries, and the team had a better record.

 

[vandyt]

My league awards points for return yards, bonuses for yardage on td's & .5 ppr. I have the second pick in round 2 of a twelve team league & would take him over McGahee in a second.

If you let him get out of the first round in that format you made a mistake.

 

[jurb26]

My league awards points for return yards, bonuses for yardage on td's & .5 ppr. I have the second pick in round 2 of a twelve team league & would take him over McGahee in a second.

This would have given MJD 2250/16 last year. He should be a top 3 pick in this format.

 

[GDogg]

After all this talk of the effectiveness of Taylor vs. MJD, I thought it might be interesting to look at how the JAX running game performed as a whole before and after Taylor's injury.

Weeks 1-14 (13 games): 356/1836/14 (5.16 ypc) rushing; 75 targets, 59/572/2 (9.69 ypr) receiving; 336.80 fantasy points (25.9 fppg)

Weeks 15-17 (3 games): 73/364/4 (4.99 ypc) rushing; 22 targets, 16/141/1 (8.81 ypr) receiving; 80.50 fantasy points (26.8 fppg)

I counted week 14, the game in which Taylor played one half, in the first (RBBC) group, since he did play half the game and had a great game (as did MJD).

So, we see that, while MJD performed well in his short stint as a feature back, the JAX RBs as a whole were marginally less effective, gaining fewer yards per carry and per reception. Their fantasy points are higher because they scored TDs at a greater rate, but I'd argue that they were actually less effective. 3 games is a small sample size, though.

Also important is that at after week 14, JAX was 8-5 and in position to make the playoffs. They then proceeded to lose at Tennessee, at home to New England, and at KC to finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs. I think that was a pretty disappointing finish...

IMO this is why the coaches will be inclined to stick with what was working so effectively last season before Taylor was hurt. The running game as a whole was better, even if marginally so, when Taylor was getting most of the carries, and the team had a better record.

The running game had nothing to do with Jacksonville losing those last three games. The horrific play of David Garrard is why they lost those games:24-17 L @ Ten: Jax rushes 41 times for 193 yards and 1 TD. David Garrard goes 22-37 for 233 yards with 1 TD 3 INT and 1 FL.

24-21 L @ Jax: Jax rushes 22 times for 144 yards and 1 TD. David Garrard has a decent day through the air going 17-23 for 195 and a TD. With 1:55 seconds to go in the game, Jax gets the ball back at their own 45 yard line (need to go 20 yards or so for the game-tying FG). Garrard loses fumble on the first play, and the game is over.

35-30 L @ KC: With Taylor back, Jax rushes 22 times for 113 yards and 1 TD. David Garrard stinks again going 10-18 for 140 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, which prompts Del Rio to bench Garrard for Quinn Gray who had appeared in one game in three seasons.

Horrific QB play (4 INT's, and 2 FL's and only 3 TD passes), not the running game, is what did Jacksonville in at the end of the season.

 

[bonesman]

I find this ESPN article interesting. The purpose of the article is to explain why MJD is overvalued and will be in a dreaded RBBC all year. The author believes Jones will cut into MJD's carries and especially his carries inside the 5: resulting in a decrease in TDs.

The final adjusted stat line he gives for MJD is 946 rushing, 436 receiving, and 10 TDs or 198 FF points. In 06, 198 FF points would have been good enough to rank as the 10th best back. That breaks down to 12.75 FF per game, good enough for 14th.

For a guy going mid-to-late 2nd round and likely being the 15th player at his position drafted, how are these supposedly negative new adjusted projections a shot at Jones-Drew? If anything this article is saying MJD is being drafted exactly where he belongs. I like a player who, when downgraded by a FF writer, projects out to his draft position.

well... i pretty much plagiarized these two paragraphs and mailed them to the author (Ken Daube). This was his response:If you've read my other work you'd know that I've done extensive analysis that shows there's significantly more value in taking a WR over a RB in round 2. Assuming that he replicates those adjusted statistics and doesn't suffer the same drop in YPC that is standard among 2nd year runners who gained 1k yards in their rookie season, that 198 points is not enough of a value to pass on an elite WR. The WR you take in round 2 and the average RB taken in round 4 score more than the opposite combination.

There isn't value in taking a 2nd to 3rd tier RB in round 2, despite whatever conventional wisdom says.

As far as MJD'd goal line success, yes it was good, but NFL coaches almost exclusively give bigger backs goal line reps. In one season, Tiki Barber led the NFL in that efficiency, in the next, Brandon Jacobs was given those responsibilities. It's not smart of those coaches, but ignoring what happens would be completely irresponsible.

- Ken Daube

-----------------------------------

since he mentions Greg Jones' amazing 35% conversion rate near the goalline in that article ... i added a couple sentences of my own. But other whise it was a total C&P job. I hope the original author doesn't mind.

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

Please stop this MJD propaganda.TMwtP reminds me of Donkey back in the Hearst vs. Barlow debates. MJD is NOT the better RB between the two.

At this point, a 2nd year MJD is better than a 31 year old Fred.MJD outperformed Fred in EVERY facet last season. Right now, he's better than Fred. No question about it.

I don't think the question is whether MJD is better. I think perhaps a more appropriate question might be is he worth an end of the 1st or early 2nd pick? What about if it is PPR?Obviously the masses think MJD > Taylor - otherwise their ADPs wouldn't be so far apart.But good enough to justify end 1st/early 2nd? That's what I'd like to know.ETA: End of 1st - early 2nd is for PPR leaguesFor non-PPR leagues, more like mid-2nd.

 

[Todem]

Switz...

I've read your posts on MJD and simply don't understand what you're trying to do.

In New England, they have Kevin Faulk for a receiving back out of the backfield on 3rd down situations and Sammy Morris to spot Maroney. He has already been dinged up this offseason and was dinged up last year on a couple of occassions. He played in a total of 14 games (essentially the same as Jones-Drew... who saw virtually no action in his first two). Maroney had around 500 less total yards and half of the TD's Jones Drew had... yet everyone seems to think that all of a sudden Maroney will just combine his stats and Dillon's stats from last year together and make him a top 10 back. Could this happen? Sure... I guess... but there are serious question marks there. New England is going to be a pass first team as well now that Brady has another toy.

In New Orleans, they have Deuce McAlister... who is a better (and more productive in terms of fantasy signifncance) RB than Fred Taylor... yet everyone thinks Bush will somehow improve on his 1400 total yards and 8 TD's from last year. Let me ask you this question... how many more rushing yards do you expect Bush to get this year? Between McAlister and Bush, they had 1600 last year... which is around 500 less rushing yards than Taylor and Jones-Drew had combined. New Orleans will continue to emphasize the pass with Brees... so I certainly don't expect those totals to increase much. Maybe he gets a slight uptick in rushing yards, but a majority of the yardage and rushing TD's will still come from McAlister. Bush almost certainly won't see an increase in the # of receptions over last year. There's really nowhere to go but down from 88 catches in my opinion.

Both of these RB's are consistently getting selected between 5 to 10 spots ahead of MJD.

Why do you feel compelled to constantly cut down MJD?

If he was getting drafted in the same spot as the above 2 guys... I'd understand the concern. In a different thread on this same topic, I mentioned that if MJD got the same total yardage as last year (remember he only played 14 games) on a few more touches (lowering his rushing and receiving averages) with half of the TD's... he justifies his draft position. You seemed to agree with those #'s more or less.

I don't understand why you're so down on this guy relative to where he's being drafted.

Just an FYI to everyone...

In the ppr rankings I've done for my upcoming drafts, I have Maroney as RB10, Bush at RB11, and MJD at RB12... so I don't see a big difference between any of these guys.

I guess the same question could apply in reverse though...Why aren't there new threads every day aout Bush and Maroney and how they are going to be the next uberstud RBs? I guess I'm just trying to balance out the uninhibited optimism about a player that IMO had a very lucky year.

We'll see in retrospect.

If I could get MJD on my team, I'd be thrilled, but I wouldn't count on him as anything more than my #3 RB.

Whoa....lucky? No you don't get lucky running and catching the way MJD did. He is a star in the making.Lucky is Marion Barber getting all the goaline love and if he does not get it this year his numbers will fall flat.

MJD is an all purpose future uber stud. I know what my eye's saw last year and everyone will more if it this season.

Fred still has some gas in the tank no doubt but MJD will get 60% - 65% of the touches IMO.