Are all Fantasy Points created equal? (1 Viewer)

[Art_VanDalay]

So in preparing for this year's upcoming FF season, I have been doing a lot of thinking about last year and why certain things may not always go according to plan. One of the take-aways I have from recent years is that, in the typical fantasy head to head format, it seems I have been burned by guys that, at the end of the year have solid to very good fantasy numbers, maybe even top 10+ but have not been as impactful for my team as I would have expected. This got me thinking about consistency for each player. I think heading into this year, the focus for me is to not worry so much about how many points in total a particular player is likely to score but rather, how likely that player is going to produce good, "consistent" week to week results to help me win not just one game in a blowout but several games over the course of a few weeks.

So I am looking for your thoughts on whether consistency for FF players is simply a red herring or is there merit to saying that how and when FF points are scored are perhaps as important or even more important than the total FF points scored for the season.

Also, if you do come down in favor of the consistent player (which I think I do) than what factors do you think go into the sauce to find those players? Is it their team philosophy? SOS? Other players around them? Ability to stay healthy or other factors? Perhaps even developing a formula to measure consistency across players by using their stats would be possible, although many of you are far more advanced in statistical analysis than I would be so open to suggestions here. Looking forward to the responses!

 

[Leonidas]

Consistency is definitely a consideration. But some people value it more than others. I think it's situational...I want consistency from my highest scoring position (usually QB), and I want consistency from the '1' guy who anchors an important multi-starter position (RB1, WR1, generally).

And I certainly don't want multiple boom/bust type of players at the same position, or even too many on my team even at different positions.

In terms of the stats I think the FBG article(s) regarding "quality starts" attempts to do this.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

If anyone has a free site for all players' game logs from 2012, I'd like to see it (well any prior years, too). I want to do a variance analysis for targets, catches/touches and yards (and maybe total fantasy points, but TD's are likely too variable). This should give some measure of a players' consistency, at least a guide, despite sample size issues.

 

[-jb-]

I believe it was coined the "crank" score.

 

[Leonidas]

I believe it was coined the "crank" score.

Yes, I recall reading at least one FBG article about that at least few years back, written the year after Rex Grossman started all season for Chicago. (Grossman was used in that article as an example who according to the crank score was better than Tom Brady)

I don't like that theory though, as it basically put an average or below average point total in the exact same category as a negative score. I'm sorry, but pretending like 8 points in a given week is the same as -2 is just stupid.